~ TRENDLines Research's Covid Future Fatalities Projections "future deaths" chart also viewable at:  www.twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa & www.facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch   next monthly chart update:  June 6th 2023 OMICRON'S SUB-VARIANTS' GLOBAL WAVE HERE 'TIL JUNE 2023! PROJECTED FUTURE FATALITIES:  44,000 WORLDWIDE incl:  USA 10,600 & UK 16,300 & CANADA 1,150 (incl 220 ONTARIO & 620 BC VICTIMS) May 8th 2023 - Based on novel coronavirus's ever-changing mortality rate in recent weeks, today's update of TRENDLines Research's Covid-19 fatalities model projects an ultimate 2020-2023 death count of 6.97 million worldwide (present toll 6.92 million + 44,000 future) incl 1,134,000 in the USA (1,124,000 toll + 10,600 future);  241,400 in the UK (225,100 toll + 16,300 future) & 53,190 in Canada (52,040 toll + 1,150 future) incl 15,280 in Ontario (15,060 toll + 220 future) & 6,140 in BC (5,520 toll + 620 future) - based on current relaxed policymaker mitigation of the Omicron BA2/4/5, BQ1 &  XBB1 sub-variants. Whereas previous lethal coronavirus events (MERS & SARS) were relatively short-lived due to aggressive contact tracing, misguided policymaker mitigation decisions allowed Covid-19 to become a multi-wave pandemic with a projected 43 month start-to-end duration (assuming no new variants-of-concern). This humankind disaster stems from most jurisdictions: (a) adopting the horrific Trump strategy of prematurely lifting restrictions (thrice or more);  (b) reluctance to require/maintain shelter-in-place;  (c) an over-reliance on vaccination programs;  (d) failure to assist vaccination in developing nations;  (e) identifiable leadership complicity in anti-mandate campaigns (eg masks, testing, social distancing & vaccinations); & (f) virtually abandoning vigilant testing & contact tracing convention post Delta. note:  text below reflects June 30 2022 Report - balance of text will updated later this month! - see archive of past projection in table below These failures to isolate the original virus led to successive surges of same and provided opportunities for spawning Alpha, Beta, Delta & Omicron (incl BA2/4/5) variants-of-concern to flourish.  Modelling reveals this event should have been only a mere six-month episode with 1.1 million fatalities.  Instead, policymaker hubris may have caused 5.3 million unnecessary victims worldwide.  These surplus deaths include 870K in USA, 149K in UK & 29K in Canada (incl 10K in Ontario & 2,900 in BC). My Post-Peak Linearization Model indicated prudent mitigation efforts had essentially suppressed Covid's first surge by mid-2020 in the UK & Canada (incl Ontario & BC.  Unfortunately, those early lock-down & shelter-in-place sacrifices proved to be in vain.  Premature relaxation of Orders and restrictions in all four jurisdictions gave rise to new surges upon each attempt at re-opening.  Similarly, just as the USA & Global models were to signal suppression in July 2021, the Delta wave overwhelmed the suppression progress. In much of the world, similar policymaker mismanagement resulted in a string of five waves (defined as seasonal outbreaks or material strain mutations):  Covid19 original strain, Alpha/Beta, Delta, Omicron & its BA2/4/5 sub-variants and surges within those waves. As a "post-peak" model, no projections were generated during the strong Delta & Omicron episodes.  Surges in cases, hospitalizations, ICU and deaths since mid 2021 reigned primarily in vax-hesitant regions.  Excepting developing nations lacking vaccination access, one might surmise there was a lot of Darwin's natural selection at work - and fortunately - victims were/are mostly right-wing qAnons. Originally, consensus held natural & community (vaccinated) herd immunity would kick in upon regions attaining 67% infection and/or jabs.  But failure to suppress the original strain and the subsequent spawning of variants-of-concern, broad-based vaccine hesitancy & the inability of vaccines to prevent break-thru cases upon waning immunity appear to have killed off any hope of illusive herd immunity. Current model runs indicate Omicron's sub-variants will transition to endemic status (health sector no longer overwhelmed) over the coming weeks and months.  In early June 2022, the UK became the first of our six tracked jurisdictions to attain endemicity.  Covid related deaths should wind down by late July in the UK;  by September in Ontario;  October Canada-wide;  March 2023 in BC; & June 2023 in the USA.  However, with 33% of the globe still lacking even a first jab, it is highly probable new variants-of-concern will arise this Autumn. See website table for archive of all my projections since April 2020.  The model's composite chart, underlying stats & analyst commentary (by Freddy Hutter) are updated monthly at: www.trendlines.ca  & chart only at  www.facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch  & www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa WORLDWIDE analysis Based on existing lax policymaker mitigation and mortality trends in recent weeks, the TRENDLines Post-Peak Linearization Model projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 98,000 fatalities across the globe as the present wave expires in February 2023.  Added to the current toll (6.322 million), an ultimate 6.420 million victims are projected over 2020-2023.  Today's daily-deaths rate (1,400) is down 90% from its January 2021 record high (14,400).  Today 63% of the world's population have at least one jab.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers. Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 102 million lives (7.6 billion x 67% x 2.0% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) and with no guarantee of permanent immunity. The 10 nations with the highest daily-deaths rate today:  USA (260), Brazil, Taiwan, UK, Russia, Australia, France, India, Chile & Canada. The model reveals 5.2 million souls (of 6.4 mil total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open. 41% of worldwide victims resided in long-term care facilities. Worldwide mortality rate:  0.08% or 813 deaths/million population USA analysis The model similarly projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 24,400 fatalities across America as the present wave expires in June 2023 -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (1,025,900), an ultimate 1,050,300 victims are projected over 2020-2023.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers. Today's daily-deaths rate (260) is 93% below its Jan/2021 record high (3,500).  The States with the most daily-deaths today are Florida (60), California, Georgia, Pennsylvania, New York & Texas. Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the absurd natural herd immunity policy promoted by the Trump White House would have cost 3.9 million American lives (327 million x 67% x 1.8% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity. During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the former President proposed packing the nation's churches on Easter and return to work the following day.  It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population. It marked the day everything changed.  For context of Trump's containment failure, the USA had over half of worldwide cases & deaths in 2020.  Twenty-six months later, the USA still has 16% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 16% of the today's global "active" cases & 16% of worldwide body bags.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in 20Q2.  75 million workers initiated unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term. The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April 2020's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression. The model reveals reveals 870,000 souls (of 1,050,000 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open. Long-term care residents comprise 1% of the USA population but were 36% of Covid19 victims - as high as 73% in some States.  81% of fatalities were over the age of 64 and 95% were over 49. USA's mortality rate:  0.30% or 3,009 deaths/million -- 17th worst in world - behind Peru (0.66%), Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Georgia, North Macedonia, Croatia, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova, Lithuania, Brazil, Slovenia, Poland & Chile. UK analysis The model projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 680 fatalities across the UK as the present wave expires in late July -- based on existing lax policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (199,420), an ultimate 200,100 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers. The UK's wave#1 was initially suppressed back on Aug 2nd 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 750 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  The model deemed wave#1 suppressed  a second time (late May 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits.  Today's daily-deaths rate (29) is 98% below its Jan/2021 record high (1,250). Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 757,000 UK lives (66 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case mortality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity. The model reveals 149K souls (of 200,100 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open. The UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 3% of the Covid19 deaths (down from 11% in 2020) and 4% of today's world "active" cases. 37% of victims lived in long-term care homes. UK's mortality rate:  0.26% or 2,555 deaths/million (28th worst in world) CANADA analysis The model projects Omicron's BA2/4/5 sub-variants will claim yet another 730 fatalities across Canada as the present wave expires in October -- based on existing lax policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (41,570), an ultimate 42,300 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers. The model reveals Canada's wave#1 was initially suppressed on Aug 7th 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 350 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  Today's daily-deaths rate (20) is 89% below its May 2020 record high (176). Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 421,000 Canadian lives (37 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity. The model reveals 29K souls (of 42,300 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open. Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there's no surprise this sector saw the most confirmed cases.  69% of Covid19 victims resided or worked in long-term facilities.  88% of fatalities were over the age of 69. Canada's mortality rate:  0.10% or 1,021 deaths/million ONTARIO analysis The model projects Omicron's BA2/4/5 sub-variants will claim yet another 81 fatalities across Ontario as the present wave expires in September -- based on existing lax policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (11,873), an ultimate 11,954 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers. It reveals Ontario's wave#1 was initially suppressed on July 7th 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 150 and the Province reported its third consecutive fatality-free day.  Today's daily-deaths rate (3) is 96% below its record highs (62) in May 2020. Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 171,000 Ontario lives (15 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity. The model reveals 10K (of 11,954 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open. Finding 66% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario's credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities. Ontario's mortality rate:  0.09% or 852 deaths/million BC analysis The model projects Omicron's BA2/4/5 sub-variants will claim yet another 319 fatalities across the Province as the present wave expires in December -- based on lax existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (3,722), an ultimate 4,041 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers. It reveals BC's wave#1 was initially suppressed way back on June 20th 2020 - when new daily cases had dwindled to single digits and the Province reported its ninth consecutive fatality-free day.  The model deemed wave#1 suppressed  a second time (late July 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits.  And a third when Delta troughed in early January 2022.  Today's daily-deaths rate (9) is down substantially from the record 21/day in December 2020. Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 33,500 BC lives (5 million x 67% x 1.0% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity. The model reveals 2K souls (of 4,041 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open. My analysis of a Canadian Medical Assoc Journal study of Excess Deaths (June 2022) indicates BC's ultimate Covid fatalities will, upon reconciliation, be 8,000 -- not the 4K suggested by BC Gov't & CDCBC official reporting.   This challenges BC's repeated boast of having among the lowest fatality, mortality & incidence rates across Canada & the globe.  But to their credit, while British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off, wise leadership quickly contained the spread -- before falling victim to faulty re-opening strategies. Further credit to BC in being among the first to mandate full vaccination for healthcare workers and bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences.  Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 68% of total fatalities. BC mortality rate:  0.06% or 587 deaths/million The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION MODEL (PPLM) These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR's linearization model.  It extrapolates a jurisdiction's mortality rate after the curve's peak - particularly the most recent days & weeks.  The graph's data points move left to right chronologically above its date's cumulative death toll on the x-axis.  The intersection (asymptote) of their trend line at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total deaths.  As daily data points are added, a high y-axis data point (high mortality rate) will shift the bottom of the trend line to the right and a higher fatalities count ... and vice versa. There is no medical component aside from tracking daily & cumulative fatalities.  This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in a curve's down-slope and assumes no change in gov't guidelines, orders or citizenry behaviour.  This same methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has determined global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004.  On request, I can similarly chart any Nation, State, Province or Region - presented alone or with comparatives.   About TRENDLines Research Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts; & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.  Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour. Archive of PPL Model's Projected 2020-2023 Covid19 Fatalities BC Ontario Canada UK USA World May 8 2023 6,140 15,280 53,190 241,400 1,134,700 6.97 million April 11 6,510 15,120 53,340 234,000 1,135,000 6.95 million March 19 5,510 14,790 52,620 232,700 1,134,000 6.90 million Feb 17 8,600 15,100 56,000 260,000 1,138,000 6.91 million Jan 9 2023 7,900 14,280 55,400 232,400 1,215,000 7.50 million Dec 10 2022 5,190 13,990 51,000 221,050 1,137,000 6.89 million Nov 7 5,240 16,520 53,910 200,900 1,126,000 6.75 million Oct 9 4,505 13,760 46,840 208,750 1,129,000 6.67 million Sept 12 4,631 15,200 52,150 207,730 1,079,000 6.78 million Aug 21 4,281 12,940 46,400 208,260 1,085,000 6.67 million July 31 4,050 12,390 43,470 201,270 1,076,000 6.60 million June 30 4,041 11,954 42,300 200,100 1,050,300 6.42 million May 20 3,564 13,790 42,270 200,200 1,027,200 6.36 million April 8 3,066 12,750 38,470 195,650 1,015,000 6.33 million March 6 3,196 12,810 38,050 163,180 1,071,000 6.31 million February -- Omicron variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions -- January 2022 -- Omicron variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions -- Dec 18 2021 2,488 10,700 31,190 154,200 889,000 5.8 million Nov 24 2,365 10,110 30,700 150,250 859,000 6.1 million Oct 9 2,054 9,960 29,200 141,730 773,000 5.6 million September -- Delta variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions -- August -- Delta variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions -- July 5 1,778 9,800 27,020 128,990 621,000 4.4 million June 2 1,807 9,440 27,490 128,435 655,000 4.6 million May 3 2,257 8,600 25,820 128,200 650,000 4.3 million April 1 1,668 7,965 24,070 127,460 584,000 7.7 million March 1 1,406 7,270 22,840 127,100 570,000 2.9 million Feb 3 1,317 7,680 22,260 129,500 520,000 2.7 million Jan 18 1,250 7,810 22,700 102,700 604,000 9.0 million Jan 2 2021 1,151 5,560 19,000 139,000 763,000 4.4 million Dec 16 2020 - 4,220 15,330 89,000 599,000 3.2 million Nov 20 - - 13,400 - 396,000 2.1 million Oct 20 412 3,540 10,800 46,500 295,000 2.0 million Oct 10 374 3,540 9,840 44,450 289,000 2.1 million Sept 30 290 3,038 10,160 44,800 270,000 1.7 million Sept 20 437 2,947 9,895 43,840 266,000 1.7 million Sept 10 277 2,905 9,440 42,200 245,000 1.4 million Sept 5 274 2,909 9,460 42,120 267,000 1.4 million Aug 30 216 2,929 9,450 42,230 284,000 1.4 million Aug 25 217 2,868 9,370 42,010 269,000 1.5 million Aug 20 205 2,862 9,302 41,990 265,000 1.5 million Aug 15 204 2,851 9,100 48,600 418,000 2.1 million Aug 10 207 2,852 9,075 48,800 377,000 2.5 million Aug 5 205 2,854 9,070 48,500 282,000 2.0 million July 30 207 2,845 9,050 48,200 308,000 2.0 million July 25 199 2,843 9,030 48,100 239,000 1.6 million July 20 215 2,850 9,060 48,100 204,000 1.5 million July 15 200 2,825 8,940 46,200 180,000 1.1 million July 10 189 2,820 8,930 46,000 175,000 1.2 million July 5 180 2,845 8,910 46,000 173,000 1.2 million June 30 177 2,890 8,840 45,600 161,000 1.3 million June 25 172 2,920 8,860 44,700 141,000 1.2 million June 21st 2020 Actual Deaths: 171 2,657 8,481 42,731 122,468 472,779 June 20 forecasts for Year 2020 170 2,810 9,000 46,800 145,000 1,145,000 June 16 170 2,940 9,660 48,900 140,000 905,000 June 12 172 3,170 10,200 47,400 141,000 852,000 June 9 172 3,530 9,430 49,200 134,000 640,000 June 6 191 2,770 9,700 45,500 127,000 525,000 June 3 197 2,550 8,470 42,500 122,000 471,000 June 1 216 2,540 8,370 42,000 122,000 466,000 May 30 225 2,530 7,990 41,600 121,000 428,000 May 28 217 2,480 7,870 41,100 119,000 420,000 May 26 225 2,390 7,590 41,600 119,000 420,000 May 24 224 7,470 120,000 420,000 May 22 223 7,300 117,000 409,000 May 20 196 7,040 111,000 403,000 May 18 193 7,135 110,000 406,000 May 16 180 7,125 111,000 396,000 May 14 174 7,025 109,000 381,000 May 12 189 6,850 105,000 386,000 May 10 222 6,900 116,000 393,000 May 8 183 6,860 119,000 339,000 May 6 202 6,475 103,000 352,000 May 4 200 6,000 95,000 386,000 May 2 205 5,900 117,000 380,000 Apr 30 2020 238 5,120 80,000 380,000 Apr 28 forecasts for June 21st 2020 176 3,960 70,500 314,000 TRUMP-VIRUS THRUST USA ECONOMY into TECHNICAL RECESSION in MARCH 2020   Dec 18th 2021 update - So how did the USA embark on this historic crisis?  Here's a clue:  During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the President stated to the Fox News host: "You'll have packed churches all over the country.  It would be a resurrection of biblical proportions.  I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter.  It would be a beautiful thing. "Our country has to get back to work, otherwise it's going to be very hard to start it up again.  We can't lose the advantage we have." It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population. But it marked the day everything changed.  And leads one to ask why does the USA have 23% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 56% of the today's global "active" cases & 24% of worldwide body bags?  The answer is founded in its citizenry electing a reality show celebrity as its President.  This business con man's failure to mitigate Covid-19's spread runs the length of his stay in office. Albeit Obama's Homeland Security Chief (Lisa Monaco) briefed the incoming transition team with a robust "playbook", un-indicted Individual-1 shut down the White House's National Security Council's Pandemic Unit in 2018.  Dr Dennis Carol's Predict Program was cancelled by the White House in 2019.  And 'cuz their very public warnings were rocking the stock markets in Feb/2020, CDC's renowned disease experts Sarah Messonnier & Dr Bright were abruptly reassigned. This prudent planning team was replaced by a muse "this flu will just go away with warm April sunshine".  After his "miracle" failed, the self-proclaimed "extremely stable genius" offered his cult following hydroxychloroquine, disinfectant injections and internal UV light remedies. It was soon evident many continued to drink the Kool-Aid (or bleach?).  Prior to flattening their curves, mostly "red States" relaxed physical distancing, stay-at-home policies, masking & contact tracing. From the onset it was evident Trump's "Opening Up America Again" campaign was rooted in politics.  Despite his bravado, to that point in time he failed to attain Obama's multiple 5% GDP growth rates.  2020's Q1/Q2/Q3 were his last-kick-at-the-can - hence his nonsensical dampened pandemic rhetoric thru January, February & March.  With Q1 going negative (-5%), he knew a large part of his Nov/2020 Election demise rested on Q2 & Q3 GDP. So the motive for his March 25th plea (above) for Easter church goers to return to work April 14th is clear.  As a ratings savvy guy, he knew Q2 GDP (for Apr/May/June) would be announced in late July (with Aug27th & Sept30th revisions).  The Q3 GDP announcement was Oct29th - a mere five days prior to Election Day (Nov3rd). And evidently, he's in huge trouble for failing to contain Covid-19.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in Q2.  And of the 75 million workers initiating unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term, 2.5 million remain on the rolls (1.7 mil pre-pandemic).  With no sign of his boasted V-shaped Recovery, Individual-1 tried some desperate manoeuvres ... like forcing schools to re-open ... attempting to postpone the Election ... sabotaging the postal system for an electoral advantage ... and challenging those mail-in ballots and finally ... recruiting nationalist militia to overthrow the Capitol on January 6th. The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression. The TRENDLines Recession Indicator was the first macro-economic model to accurately reveal the magnitude of the Great Recession in real time.  In the 2013 chart below, TRI was forecasting a USA austerity crisis to occur in 2024 due to an uncontrolled $26 trillion National Debt.  But that day was pre-empted by a black swan event:  the TrumpVirus - a crisis of epic proportions in mismanagement, lack of containment & mitigation failures - resulting in 815,000 fatalities (thus far). Despite interventions by the Federal Reserve via its monetary policy tool box and fiscal policy injections of trillions of dollars by Congress, it is probable the  American economy will suffer long-term consequences.  April's "real" Unemployment Rate (U-6) of 22% was the worst since the 26% high (1933) in the Great Depression (see chart below).  Q2GDP plunged 31% (annualized rate), dwarfing the 2008 & 1980 downturns and anything seen in the great Depression. the traditional definitions TECHNICAL RECESSION:  Avg Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP) declines 0% to 2% for at least 2 Quarters within an environment of rising unemployment. SEVERE RECESSION:  Avg GDP declines 2% to 4% for at least 4 Qtrs (1 yr) DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines 4% to 8% for at least 8 Qtrs (2 yrs) GREATER DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines over 8% for at least 16 Qtrs (4 yrs) RECOVERY PERIOD:  monthly/quarterly nominal GDP expanding but remains below pre-contraction peak EXPANSION PERIOD:  monthly/quarterly nominal GDP finally exceeds pre-contraction peak STRUCTURAL GDP (TRIX):  Real GDP adjusted for Fiscal Policy Deficit/Surplus effects to reveal growth rate of underlying economy   UPPER CLASS:  family wealth (net worth) is among the top 1% of society MIDDLE CLASS:  family income is among the top 10% of society WORKING CLASS:  all the rest... U-6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:  Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.  Discouraged workers  a subset of marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.  Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. START FINISH ~ send email to Freddy Hutter with questions, comments or navigation corrections with respect to this web site  ~  Last modified:  May 8 2023  ~  (© 1989-2023 TRENDLines Research) keywords:  projection prediction forecast indicate guess estimate how many people will die perish in bc british columbia canada canadians usa americans united states globe world worldwide earth result from corona virus covid-19 pandemic flu death toll daily total cumulative fatalities perish victims trendlines freddy hutter CDC IHME model pplm post-peak linearization social physical distancing

TRENDLines Research's YUKON PROTOCOL for the UN's CLIMATE FINANCE DELIVERY PLAN & its GREEN CLIMATE FUND Nov 24th 2021 - TRENDLines Research published its "Yukon Protocol" on Aug 23 2009 to provide guidance to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) and policymakers of developed nations in establishing equitable contributions wrt the $100 billion Climate Finance Delivery Plan -- reaffirmed at COP26-Glasgow-2021. As background, after each of the UN's IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports, developing nations begrudged demands on them to forego economical coal, oil and gases as their gracious part in "saving the planet". Their objections are founded in the perceived unfairness that while today's wealthy nations achieved their status in part via industrialization under a high emissions regime, the latter has undergone an epiphany of sorts and so to suppress imminent climate change due to past sins, they now chastise developing nations for utilizing those same efficient fossil fuel resources to foster their growth. So as a fairness measure to offset the cost burden of low emission infrastructure in young economies, COP15-Copenhagen-2009 proposed a Green Climate Fund (GCF) from which they can draw upon -- and to be funded by mature nations. Subsequent COP's (Conference Of the Parties) established the GCF, but a dozen years on, donor nations continue a struggle to find equitable contribution levels. TR's Yukon Protocol suggests a truly relevant apportionment of the $100 billion Climate Finance Delivery Plan rests in setting national contributions in accordance to each country's share of cumulative co2 emissions. The Yukon Protocol's latest methodology divides up the $100 billion Climate Finance target among the top 100 co2 emitters using their known prorated share of cumulative emissions (since Year 1750).  Said 100 are responsible for 97% of total emissions for this period.  The remaining 114 nations are candidates for GCF grants & loans. With full compliance, annual contributions within the Protocol range from $31 million assessed against Jamaica - the lowest of the 100 top emitters (0.03%) to $25.65 billion due from the largest - the USA (25.65%).  Over 2/3 of the target is achieved levying the top ten emitters. Credit to CDIAC, GCP & OWID acknowledged as data sources. link to 5pg printable PDF YUKON PROTOCOL FOR CLIMATE FINANCE DELIVERY PLAN Top 100  emitter nations funding proportion based on cumulative co2 emissions assessed share of $100 billion target emitter rating         United States 25.65% $25,651,095,494 1 China 13.76% $13,755,684,167 2 Russia 7.12% $7,120,711,038 3 Germany 5.75% $5,746,176,106 4 United Kingdom 4.87% $4,867,713,931 5 Japan 4.04% $4,040,926,002 6 India 3.25% $3,245,142,621 7 France 2.39% $2,387,350,145 8 Canada 2.07% $2,066,969,822 9 Ukraine 1.85% $1,849,937,991 10 Poland 1.73% $1,725,919,802 11 Italy 1.52% $1,519,222,819 12 South Africa 1.29% $1,291,856,139 13 Mexico 1.24% $1,240,181,893 14 Iran 1.15% $1,147,168,251 15 Australia 1.14% $1,136,833,402 16 South Korea 1.06% $1,064,489,458 17 Brazil 0.95% $950,806,118 18 Saudi Arabia 0.93% $930,136,420 19 Spain 0.92% $919,801,571 20 Indonesia 0.85% $847,457,627 21 Kazakhstan 0.84% $837,122,778 22 Belgium 0.78% $775,113,683 23 Czechia 0.74% $744,109,136 24 Netherlands 0.72% $723,439,438 25 Turkey 0.65% $651,095,494 26 Taiwan 0.54% $537,412,154 27 Romania 0.53% $527,077,305 28 Argentina 0.52% $516,742,456 29 Venezuela 0.49% $485,737,908 30 Thailand 0.44% $444,398,512 31 Uzbekistan 0.41% $413,393,964 32 Egypt 0.38% $382,389,417 33 Malaysia 0.36% $361,719,719 34 Austria 0.34% $341,050,021 35 Belarus 0.33% $330,715,172 36 North Korea 0.32% $320,380,322 37 Hungary 0.31% $310,045,473 38 Pakistan 0.31% $310,045,473 38 Sweden 0.31% $310,045,473 38 United Arab Emirates 0.29% $289,375,775 41 Algeria 0.28% $279,040,926 42 Iraq 0.28% $279,040,926 43 Denmark 0.26% $258,371,228 44 Greece 0.25% $248,036,379 45 Bulgaria 0.24% $237,701,530 46 Nigeria 0.24% $237,701,530 46 Slovakia 0.24% $237,701,530 46 Vietnam 0.23% $227,366,680 49 Colombia 0.21% $206,696,982 50 Philippines 0.21% $206,696,982 50 Finland 0.20% $196,362,133 52 Switzerland 0.19% $186,027,284 53 Chile 0.18% $175,692,435 54 Kuwait 0.18% $175,692,435 54 Serbia 0.18% $175,692,435 54 Azerbaijan 0.17% $165,357,586 57 Norway 0.17% $165,357,586 57 Portugal 0.17% $165,357,586 57 Turkmenistan 0.17% $165,357,586 57 Israel 0.14% $144,687,888 61 Ireland 0.13% $134,353,038 62 Singapore 0.13% $134,353,038 62 Libya 0.12% $124,018,189 64 Qatar 0.12% $124,018,189 64 New Zealand 0.11% $113,683,340 66 Peru 0.11% $113,683,340 66 Syria 0.11% $113,683,340 66 Cuba 0.10% $103,348,491 69 Hong Kong 0.10% $103,348,491 69 Morocco 0.10% $103,348,491 69 Bangladesh 0.09% $93,013,642 72 Estonia 0.09% $93,013,642 72 Trinidad & Tobago 0.09% $93,013,642 72 Lithuania 0.08% $82,678,793 75 Croatia 0.07% $72,343,944 76 Ecuador 0.07% $72,343,944 76 Oman 0.07% $72,343,944 76 Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.06% $62,009,095 79 Georgia 0.06% $62,009,095 79 Moldova 0.06% $62,009,095 79 Bahrain 0.05% $51,674,246 82 Kyrgyzstan 0.05% $51,674,246 82 Latvia 0.05% $51,674,246 82 Luxembourg 0.05% $51,674,246 82 Slovenia 0.05% $51,674,246 82 Tunisia 0.05% $51,674,246 82 Zimbabwe 0.05% $51,674,246 82 Angola 0.04% $41,339,396 89 Armenia 0.04% $41,339,396 89 Dominican Republic 0.04% $41,339,396 89 Jordan 0.04% $41,339,396 89 Lebanon 0.04% $41,339,396 89 Mongolia 0.04% $41,339,396 89 North Macedonia 0.04% $41,339,396 89 Yemen 0.04% $41,339,396 89 Bolivia 0.03% $31,004,547 97 Curacao 0.03% $31,004,547 97 Guatemala 0.03% $31,004,547 97 Jamaica 0.03% $31,004,547 97   100.00%   assessed nations: ver 21.1116 100.00% $100,000,000,000 100                 114 Recipient Entities:               Kenya       Myanmar       Sri Lanka       Sudan       Tajikistan       Albania       Brunei       Cote d'Ivoire       Cyprus       Gabon       Ghana       Honduras       Panama       Uruguay       Afghanistan       Bahamas       Benin       Botswana       Cambodia       Cameroon       Costa Rica       Democratic Republic of Congo       El Salvador       Equatorial Guinea       Ethiopia       Guyana       Iceland       Kosovo       Laos       Madagascar       Malta       Mauritius       Montenegro       Mozambique       Nepal       New Caledonia       Nicaragua       Papua New Guinea       Paraguay       Senegal       Suriname       Tanzania       Uganda       Zambia       Andorra       Anguilla       Antigua & Barbuda       Aruba       Barbados       Belize       Bermuda       Bhutan       Bonaire Sint Eustatius & Saba       British Virgin Islands       Burkina Faso       Burundi       Cape Verde       Central African Republic       Chad       Comoros       Congo       Cook Islands       Djibouti       Dominica       Eritrea       Eswatini       Faeroe Islands       Fiji       French Polynesia       Gambia       Greenland       Grenada       Guinea       Guinea-Bissau       Haiti       Kiribati       Lesotho       Liberia       Liechtenstein       Macao       Malawi       Maldives       Mali       Marshall Islands       Mauritania       Micronesia       Montserrat       Namibia       Nauru       Niger       Niue       Palau       Palestine       Rwanda       Saint Helena       Saint Kitts & Nevis       Saint Lucia       Saint Pierre & Miquelon       Saint Vincent & Grenadines       Samoa       Sao Tome & Principe       Seychelles       Sierra Leone       Sint Maarten (Dutch)       Solomon Islands       Somalia       South Sudan       Timor       Togo       Tonga       Turks & Caicos Islands       Tuvalu       Vanuatu       Wallis & Futuna         About TRENDLines Research Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts;  & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.  Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour. ~ ~ the FreeVenue chart-of-the-day is a public posting of guidance (charts, tables & analysis) Trendlines Research has been publishing charts & analysis relating to Peak Oil, Macro-Economics, Climate Change & Political Election Projections since 1989.  Data analyst Freddy Hutter's media and professional commentary on these issues commenced in 1973 all charts, tables & text © 1989-2021 all rights reserved TRENDLines Research  ~ clik to follow @TrendlinesDotCa for new chart alerts