Yukon Blog

Hey, We've moved !!

May 1st 2006: The TrendLines Blog and graphs are now an exclusive feature at theYUKON.tv where it will continue in its present form. An enhancement already in place is the availability of real time & current polling albeit within their subscription venue. Rather than waiting 30-60 days for the latest survey results, TrendLiners can now see those graphs (and our caustic blog comments) as soon they are completed ... some, the same day as the calls are made. Our unique Leg' Riding Projection arising out of last week's Yukon polling is already posted for subscribers there and the 18 Electoral District graphs and the new "independent" question will be posted in the next few days. And best of all (and due to popular demand) ... most of the yellow/black graphics are gone!

Programming Note: The Leafs are out. The Canucks never made it either. That gives me two months to work on my new servers and the much requested new color scheme! Do not panic if site is down periodically during May: I'm better at polling than nameservers and IP's.	*Desire a private survey??* Want to test the waters Yourself in our next survey? We are taking names of those hopeful to be a Party Nominee or Indep't Candidate in the 2006 Yukon Election. TrendLines will include u in "the question"... No charge ... and "before" the Nomination Meeting! Are u shy? And would rather have a private survey? We can mention your name in our evening polls for $195-$360(same as in the 17 Riding Graphs of the January Update below blog dated March 23rd) In January, we predicted Larry Bagnell would be elected with 48.5% of the vote ... ElectionsCanada reported five days later that he got ... 48.5% (with survey cost of $1785 & normal Margin of Error <MoE> of 9%) In November, i predicted Art Mitchell would win the Copperbelt By-Election with 58.3% of the vote ... ElectionsYukon reported ...49.6% and that my advance poll date was within 5% (both surveys cost $270 & normal MoE of 22% In a tad larger survey, Evalina predicted Mitchell would get 48.6% (survey cost of $540 & normal MoE of 16%) Our evening polls as in our January "Yukon Political Update" below are available for $195-$360 (with normal MoE of 27%-19%) Contact us today: 660-5533 or graphs@TrendLines.ca
In our quest for a more interactive site, do u have something to say and need a soapbox? Now's your chance. Whether the topic is Regional or your community, send us your contact info if u'd like to write a piece concerning your settlement, the Yukon, northern BC or SE Alaska. Or, if u have a question that u'd like for us to direct to an MLA, an MP, a municipal official, a YTG official or even the Premier ... we will ask on your behalf and post the Q&A on TrendLines or www.theYukon.tv to share with our audience...
Please contact us if u wish to be included or know of someone that should be on the question "who would u vote for if the Election was today?" in our May Update. And i'd really like to see some INDEPT's come forward! Nine non-sitting hopefuls were aboard for April's survey! This included Turner, Barr, Meier & Lesniak for the NDP; Cheeseman, Presley, Schultz, Treusch & Breen for the Liberals. Nobody new for the YP. And no new Indept's. If u know of someone working a Riding in anticipation of the nomination races for the General Election, please drop us a line (graphs@trendlines.ca ) or give us a call (660.5533)
*"March Yukon Political Update" - see Apr 20/21st in our blog archive at TrendLines website*

April 30th: It's a wrap. April calls done. Tabulations are in progress, but already i can reveal that we have 2 lead changes among the 18 MLA races and a new Premier-in-Waiting. Some revelations will knock your socks off. This survey will be the inaugural TrendLines gauge of support for Ed Schultz as a pre-nominated Liberal in McIntyre-Takhini, Peter Lesniak (NDP) and Philip Treusch (L) as pre-nominees in Riverdale South & Jon Breen as a pre-nominated Liberal in Lake Laberge. A Yukon Party Majority is still not at hand. With only 146 days 'til our target date for the Election, the YP should be afraid. As they say ... very afraid.

April 29th: Our April Political Survey is under way. Including the Incumbents, we have 27 names in the "who would u vote for?" question. In this month's new question, we are gauging support for a slate of Independent candidates. Six elected Indies would likely make them the new Gov't: 6-4-4-4 = 18. After calls to 12 Ridings thus far, there are no lead changes from our March Yukon Political Update below (see Apr 20/21). Last week's graph showed only a 1.7% separation in popular opinion between the three Parties across the Yukon. Many political junkies can hardly contain themselves awaiting the developing trend to be revealed. On the larger scale, important investment decisions are in abeyance as stakeholders and decision-makers ponder the new political landscape unfolding before us. The April Update will be based on 255 Decided calls over the previous 106 days ending April 30th.

TrendLines rolling poli-poll graphs were an industry first in the early 90's. Our Results are usually available to the public within 60 days of the survey. With anticipation of the September Election and interest in timely data being high, it appears that www.TheYukon.tv will be including our TrendLines Blog and graph Results within its premium content to their subscribed audience. Original TrendLiners will remember that in July/August 2005, we published "real time" results on this web site during our inaugural Summer polling. Yukon survey respondents could see up-to-the-minute graphs as soon as they hung up the phone. theYUKON.tv, as the Region's innovative news & commerce venue, desires to duplicate that North American first in scientific political polling this Spring as an exclusive feature at its website. We're all pretty excited about the prospect of expanding on that trial run! Since Wednesday, the buzz at theYUKON.tv surrounds the anticipation of the live eaglet births over there, but wander over to www.TheYukon.tv next week and perhaps u may find a sneak peak of our April calls.

April 28th: Last week's results yielded a projected Todd Hardy Minority win with 7 MLA's for the NDP, 6 Liberals, 4 YP MLA's & 1 Indep't member. Again our sincere thanx to Matt from Palmerston (Minto) Ontario for his portrayal of our March Update in this map graphic:

April 27th: It would be gracious for Minister Edzerza if he would explain why his new Act allows YTG officials to take action against purported prostitution activity but not the illicit gambling that is targeted in the jurisdictions from which this legislation was borrowed. Was there excessive and undue pressure from Yukon Party directors and influential members?

April 26th: Today marks three weeks since TrendLines was barred by Cabinet Communications Officer Peter Carr from attending YTG Press Conferences. Fortunately, there are only 150 days 'til Regime Change in the Yukon. We have been further advised that for their own reasons, CBC & The Yukon News have now reversed an earlier position and have both barred us from the Leg' Press Gallery. The plot thickens...

April 23rd: There was lotsa energy and enthusiasm at the NDP AGM yesterday. Evalina and i attended as observers and chatted with House Leader Libby Davies & Agriculture critic Alex Atamanenko over dinner. If Dennis Fentie or Arthur Mitchell were hoping for discontent towards the NDP leader, it didn't happen. Todd & Louise Hardy were very prominent in the day's events. I know the lame duck Administration and the third Party feel Hardy is a gift-from-gawd for them going into the Election ... but they may be in for a cruel surprise. He may not be knock-'em-dead on the charisma charts, but Todd Hardy is tops at recruiting new candidates (four) for the September election.

We are polling into the weekend and have added new NDP hopeful Peter Lesniak, testing the waters in Riverdale South.

April 22nd: It's an awesome time to be a right winger in Canada presently. The Kyoto Protocol, CBC & Bilingualism are among my pet peeves that are on the chopping block. Today is Earth Day. And the Conservatives have dumped the One Tonne Challenge and a myriad of other useless Climate Change boondoggles. Next should be the Yukon's Northern Climate Exchange which is home to a bunch of tree huggers that preach nothing but The-End-of-the-World-as-We-Know-It predictions that they know are bullsh*t. They luv Kyoto over there. But none of 'em have taken the time to read the fricken Protocol. After sixteen years, the drafters have still not been able to define "the Penalties" for the member nations that fail to meet the emission targets. And they wondered at Montreal why the USA has not yet signed on. These proponents are idiots. And they have not read the latest IPCC final report (2001). It illustrates that if the Kyoto Protocol targets are met, its targets for rising temperatures and sea levels will be postponed to 2106 from 2100. Six f*cking years! That's it. That's what all the fuss is about.

Like the cute white seal pups, the global warming controversy is all about fund raising, grants and empire building. It is a fraud. True Climate Change projects should be about adaptation and mitigation. The scare tactics of the environmentalists are easily dissected. And thus they have few supporters. Everyone knows the sky is not falling. The tree huggers have been campaigning since the first Earth Day in 1970 against nuclear and hydro electric plants. And forced decision-makers to instead go the route of coal, thermal and natural gas generated power plants. In other words, the greenhouse gas problem that we enjoy today is due in a large part to the very environmentalists that whine incessantly today. They fought the wrong war! Congrat's morons. It is acknowledged that the salvation in curbing greenhouse emissions lies in a global resurrection of nuclear generated electrical plants. The tree huggers won some battles and lost the war...

In January 2007, the IPCC will update its latest projections in a project called AR4. Again, hundreds of scientists and modellers are involved. Early analysis of their studies confirms that by 2100 AD global temp's will rise one degree and the oceans about one foot. The apocalyptic claims of the Northern Climate Exchange will be shown to be pure bullsh*t and that entity as presently mandated should be shut down immediately. It is a waste of taxpayers' monies and is needlessly stressing stakeholders and the gullible.

The Wall Street Journal addressed the topic well today:

Breathe Easier
The world is getting cleaner, Al Gore notwithstanding.

Saturday, April 22, 2006

Today, April 22, is Earth Day, which has been marked each year since 1970 as a day of reflection on the state of the environment. At least that's the idea, so let's begin with some figures.

Since 1970, carbon monoxide emissions in the U.S. are down 55%, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Particulate emissions are down nearly 80%, and sulfur dioxide emissions have been reduced by half. Lead emissions have declined more than 98%. All of this has been accomplished despite a doubling of the number of cars on the road and a near-tripling of the number of miles driven, according to Steven Hayward of the Pacific Research Institute.

Mr. Hayward compiles the "Index of Leading Environmental Indicators" published around Earth Day each year by PRI and the American Enterprise Institute. It serves as an instructive antidote for the doom and gloom that normally pervades environmental coverage, especially of late.

This year, for example, Vanity Fair has inaugurated an "Earth Issue," comprising 246 glossy, non-recycled pages of fashion ads, celebrity worship and environmental apocalypse. Highlights include computer-generated images of New York City underwater and the Washington mall as one big reflecting pool. The magazine also includes a breathless essay by U.S. environmental conscience-in-chief Al Gore. The message is that we are headed for an environmental catastrophe of the first order, and only drastic changes to the way we live can possibly prevent it.

If arguments were won through the use of italics, Mr. Gore would prevail in a knockout. But as Mr. Hayward notes in his "Index," the environmental movement as a whole has developed a credibility problem since the first Earth Day 36 years ago. In the 1970s, prominent greens were issuing dire predictions about mass starvation, overpopulation and--of all things--global cooling. Since then, population-growth estimates have come way down, biotechnology advances have found ways to feed more people than the doomsayers believed possible, and the global-cooling crisis has become the global-warming crisis without missing a beat. There's no doubt the greens have succeeded in promoting higher environmental standards, which in turn have contributed to cleaner air, water and land almost everywhere you look. Today, game fish have returned to countless American streams and lakes, the Northeast has more forestland that at any time since the 19th century and smog is down dramatically in places like Los Angeles. But environmental activists don't want to believe their own success, much less advertise it. They need another looming catastrophe to stay relevant, not to mention to keep raising money.

Thus the cause of global warming has come at a fortuitous moment for clean-air warriors looking for alarms to ring. It is global in scope, will take decades to come to fruition--or to be revealed as another false alarm--and provides endless opportunities for government intrusion into the economy. It is, if you'll pardon the deliberate reference to a faith-based phenomenon, the green equivalent of manna from heaven. Or would be, if the greens hadn't spent so much time over the last three decades talking up
scares that never came to pass.

This credibility deficit, combined with the slow-motion nature of the putative warming, has led to some desperate tactics by the global-warming true believers. To cite just one example, careful expounders of the idea of human-caused global warming used to take pains to distinguish between "climate" and "weather." Thus, snow storms in April or cold snaps in September were merely "weather" and told us nothing about long-term trends.

Then Katrina hit the Gulf Coast, and the environmental movement pounced. The image of an American city filled with water proved irresistible to those who have been warning for years about rising sea levels--never mind that the cause was one unusually powerful storm and that New Orleans was built below sea level in the first place. As Mr. Gore puts it, Katrina "may have been the first sip of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us over and over again until we act on the truth we have wished would go away." If that language sounds familiar, that's because Mr. Gore borrowed the image from Winston Churchill, who used it to describe the Nazi menace in Europe in the 1930s.

The comparison between global-warming skeptics and Nazis or their sympathizers is not an idle one, as full-scale demonization of anyone who questions the global warming orthodoxy is now under way. MIT's Richard Lindzen recently described in these pages how this intimidation is stifling scientific debate.

A separate article in the same issue of Vanity Fair compares anyone who doubts that the apocalypse is nigh (including us) to the tobacco-industry shills who denied the link between cancer and smoking. It also suggests that both are the products of the same bought-and-paid-for industry flacks. You can expect to hear more such comparisons going forward; having lost the debate over Kyoto, certain greens would now rather not debate the evidence at all and merely invoke some "consensus" that everyone allegedly knows to be true.

As optimists by nature, we're inclined instead to observe the happy environmental progress of recent decades; that this is in part the result of prosperity produced by economic growth; and that the solutions to any future environmental danger are also likely to emerge from the new technology and greater wealth produced by free markets and free people. So next time someone tells you that climate change is more dangerous than terrorism, bear in mind something else Churchill once said: "A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject."

April 21st: Instead of our normal Secession Survey, we've tried a new question in March. Acknowledging the fact that Larry Bagnell was truly appreciated as a dedicated MP but now found on the wrong side of the House of Commons for his role in bringing the bucks back from Ottawa, Evalina wanted to gauge the opinion of folks in the Yukon on whether our MP would better serve us on the Gov't side instead of holding his allegiance with those corrupt Liberals. It seems the time is not yet quite right, eh!

With a prominent Liberal hopeful entering the fray in Mc-Tak, TrendLines will be conducting a new poll next week and the results will be exclusively featured at the Territory's innovative Community news & commerce website launching in May 2006: www.TheYukon.tv

Lotsa movement in the last few weeks. The NDP are down 'cuz they lost McRobb & Fairclough. The Liberals should be up for the same reason ... but instead they are fading. Is Arthur Mitchell's honeymoon over? The Yukon Party spent almost a month making pre-Budget announcements, re-announcements and finally the Budget itself. We have everyone within 1.2% (corrected) presently. Yet, as u can see in yesterday's graph, the only net Riding changes are the expulsions.

The Yukon Party does not get back into Minority territory 'til they get into the very high 30's. Not likely by September! For reasons unknown, the bloom is off the Liberal rose. Their dream team is not developing. We met what could be one two weeks ago that is about to come out from incognito status, but will he/she light the fire? Methinx the momentum will go back to the NDP. All three of their recruits are making waves. Todd is shedding his tree-hugging socialist undertones and occasionally speaks well this Session. And he is in outreach mode, which means he can only get better. YTG needs a housecleaning. A Minority NDP regime may be at hand in the coming weeks. Now excuse me while i puke...

April 20th: We seem to be getting more hits than usual this week from the Federal Gov't. If they're coming from Minister Jim Prentice' scouts, i do hope that they don't waste time during the W~h visit talking to the wrong Party. Indian and Northern Affairs Canada has a busy itinerary over the next two years. If they want to discuss Yukon & First Nation issues with the caucus that will be in power most of that time, they should scale back any planned talks with Arthur Mitchell (promoted by MP Larry Bagnell) and especially our resident lame duck, Dennis Fentie (promoted by the local right wing CPC constituency) as five of his six Cabinet Ministers are poised for defeat in the coming weeks...

With the NDP AGM upon us this weekend, we thot it would be a great time to release the highlights of our March "Yukon Politics Update" which again feature Todd Hardy as our Premier-in-Waiting (a title he has held since Summer 2005). While Hardy is making a genuine effort to address Budget issues and the Yukon economy, Arthur Mitchell continues to wallow in post-Jan23rd syndrome wherein he seems to be preoccupied with the Liberal Party loss in the recent Federal Election and somehow is attempting to associate the governing YP to Stephen Harper's new Tory Gov't as if that was some kind of kiss of death a là "Conservatives = Bad & Conservatives = YP & therefore: YP = Bad!

In actuality, the only thing dieing is Mitchell's leadership future. Yukoners have been monitoring Hardy and Mitchell since the By-Election to gauge which of them has the best Premier royal jelly. When one looks at the quality of their speeches and the ability to recruit a slate of 2006 Candidates, Todd Hardy is the clear winner to date.

On that note, testing the waters this month, we introduce two lads with hopes of being the NDP candidate for their Ridings: Kevin Barr in Southern Lakes & Jorn Meier in Klondike. And like their recent counterpart, Frank Turner in Lake Laberge, ALL 3 are leading the polls! Gary McRobb as a Liberal & Eric Fairclough as an Indep't both retain the lead in their respective Ridings. Elvis Presley of Ross River, the lone Liberal hopeful, has had a horrendous baptism. It appeared that the Lame Duck Yukon Party (guided ever so skilfully by their Communications guru, Peter Carr) would be humiliated by being reduced for the first time to only three MLA's ... but Elaine Taylor has just reclaimed the lead in W~h West.

Over the next 24 hrs we will be posting all 18 Riding graphs and the resultant Riding Projection, plus Popular Opinion across the Yukon and the results of our newest question: "Should Larry Bagnell cross the floor?"

An * denotes that some candidates have not yet been endorsed by the nomination process. These rolling poll results are based on calls to 248 Decided Yukoners from Dec 29 - Mar 31 2006. There were 9% Undecided and the margin of error is 6% on the Party Popular Opinion and Cross-the-Floor Poll and an avg 27% on the individual ridings. Calls older than 95 days of age have been deleted from the database. The few remaining December calls affect Klondike only.

April 19th: Today marks two weeks since TrendLines was barred by Cabinet Communications Officer Peter Carr from attending YTG Press Conferences. There are only 157 days 'til Regime Change in the Yukon.

April 18th: Budget deliberations are again underway in the Leg' and we will shortly expose the some of the deficiencies in the Fentie Budget as an economic road map for the Yukon. It doesn't show Yukoners where we've been, where we are today or where we are going. This is not an economic statement. It is merely a financial statement and the Fentie Gov't appears to have no comprehension of the purpose of these annual economic statements in modern day jurisdictions. In other jurisdictions, one must go back more than three decades to find comparative amateurish documents that are a mere bookkeepers' disclosure. One has to question the ability of the Yukon Party Gov't (including its advisors) to continue to govern given their neophyte status in this realm. Clearly this document is not what we have come to know as "a Budget" in contemporary terms.

With the marked improvement of questions relating to economic matters from Premier-in-Waiting, Todd Hardy, it is becoming apparent why Fentie has reduced the length of the current session to thirty days from forty.

We will elaborate on Fentie's failure to illustrate that he can measure economic stimuli and some of his regime's gross financial blunders following this week's release of the March Political Update.

April 12th: CBC continues its airing of historical re-enactments of the British colonialism and its monarchy. A rich albeit controversial history. Yukoners with a French or other European descendancy have a likewise rich past. And where do our Yukon First Nations look for their cultural birthplace? Some would say Klukwan. We went there on the weekend based on Tourism directed promotion, but gawdamn, this place has to be the arsehole of this whole Region. I had reserved award for the village of Faro, but geez this place is a dump. Altho bound by beautiful snow-peaked mountains on the east and a fresh mountain stream on the west, these amenities instil absolutely no pride of ownership upon its inhabitants. While having the notoriety of being the "mother village" of many aboriginal bands, it bestows no element of mentoring on its gene pool. Where do our First Nations look for role models of "stewards of the land" and traces of their cultural richness? Certainly not at this ancient fjord settlement.

We will be setting up some new servers for our new website in the coming days. This will take the pressure off TrendLines.ca which is a very active international venue... with visits and participation from over 80 nations. In May 2006, we are commencing a new direction that prepares us for some of the new technologies on the WWWeb and as part of that development, our North of 60 blogging will have a new home at www.TheYukon.tv

Our relocation to this Region has surpassed our expectations in all sectors with which we deal and we are looking forward to implementing some challenging tasks in our market area that includes northern BC, southeast Alaska and The Yukon. In the coming weeks, we want to open up some of our discussion in a more interactive fashion with our growing audience. We wish to discuss this Region's realistic economic viability looking into the medium and long range future. And to initiate an honest discourse on the accuracy of our First Nations true traditional past and separate from that what is plainly "make believe". Starting from that stark reality (free of fantasy), perhaps we can move on to where the future could and should lie for those peoples in a respectable and sustainable fashion. Education, training and governance decisions demand that forthrightness.

As well, we have some decisions to make as to our degree of political involvement and whether it should remain in the realm of the mere reporting of local activity; the gauging of public opinion; and the analysis of the political scene. Or, should our efforts jump to the higher plateau of MLA representation in either this Election or the next...

Part of that decision making process will be an engagement into discussions of the value of the present adversarial system and its inherent dysfunction in the Yukon. Is it partly due to the low remuneration of MLA's? Or just not enuf critical mass to compete with the private sector and civil service alternatives? It seems all three Parties are presently having much difficulty attracting noteworthy slates.

Or is their general cynicism out there and a new model is needed? The present Gov't and the Ken McKinnon Electoral Reform Review are steadfast in maintaining status quo. That leaves as an alternative only the option electing a slate of Indep't Legislators. And they will only make a difference at the Leg' if they are organized in a fashion that expedites their access to research and collaboration ... seeking consensus both between themselves and with those left from the conventional Parties. I will present to you the need in the Yukon for what i will call OIL at this Blog ... an acronym for the Organization of Indep't Legislators.

In short, a vehicle that will grease the wheels of political action in The Yukon.

And i want to hear from likeminded individuals. If u presently find running for the conventional three Parties distasteful and unfruitful, please contact TrendLines. We will keep u apprised of the OIL movement and if desired, we will help u with testing the waters as an Independent MLA associated with OIL in the coming weeks. Does OIL have a place as a resource in the accountability of Gov't? Or, as an Opposition force? Remember, should Yukoners elect six Indept's in September, the three conventional Parties will have only twelve members between them; possibly four each. Hence, could OIL secure the six or more Ridings required that provide the prospect of attaining Governance and Premiership? Let's pursue this...

I thank the Opposition members for asking the questions in the Leg' this week that i couldn't. Today marks one week's time that i have been banned by Peter Carr from the Yukon Party Govt's press conferences. I feel like the 19th Member. The time may be ripe to rip up status quo in the Yukon. It doesn't work. Can we take the best of the unpartisan municipal model and rebuild our Legislature with a team of independent thinkers. Methinx we can. And the time is ripe: Yukon voters seem to be afraid to elect the tree-hugging Socialists. Yet they seem reluctant to want a re-branded Duncan Liberal Party either. And our polling clearly shows that they certainly don't want to re-elect the unapproachable and aloof Yukon Party led by its now exposed ex-con drug trafficker, Dennis Fentie. The September General Election will be his first electoral test since his ugly past was revealed to Yukoners. He may win Watson Lake, but many perceive that his presence will taint all other YP candidates.

In my early postings and press releases last summer, i stated that our jurisdiction lacks the critical mass for the Party system to be relevant and responsible in the Legislature. The months since have illustrated that we have grid lock in that venue. Is 2006 the time to tackle this problem? Is 2006 the year that voters push the dinosaurs aside? Play with the numbers. What seemed insurmountable all of a sudden is not. 6-4-4-4. Does this get your adrenalin flowing? Be assured that Dennis Fentie and Peter Carr are sh*tting bricks today. They are very afraid. Fentie wanted to shut down the Leg' last week. Carr kicked me out of their Press Conferences last week. More signs of a Lame Duck Administration grasping...

Let's talk soon ... next month www.TheYukon.tv will be your voice!

April 11th: I am pleased with the calibre of questions and general conversation that commenced on Monday. Somebody has raised the bar at the Leg'. Still lotsa sniping and character attacks but at least some of the questions and disclosures are leading to constructive information sharing. In particular i would advise everyone to read the Hansard transcripts relating to Jim Kenyon and Peter Jenkins. Both are behind in our polling of their respective Ridings and that situation could change should their constituents see more of their constructive contributions.

April 10th: Evalina and i are continuing to secure direct briefings on the social and economic structure of this Region and are presently completing travels to Dease Lake, Atlin, Klukwan, Haines & Champagne. This will leave only Beaver Creek & Old Crow on our "to do" list and better gives us perspective to question and comment on macro issues that are not being addressed by the YP Gov't or the Opposition; thus continuing to hold back discussion on economic sustainability and widespread systemic dysfunction.

April 7th: I was shocked when i first contacted Daryl Novakowski in early October wrt his Copperbelt aspirations to find a fella exhibiting utter evasiveness and consumed with paranoia. And an unlisted phone number. And he wants to run for MLA? He refused to talk politics and directed me to ask any questions via Carol Alexander, president of the YP Constituency Assoc. Ten minutes later i got a scolding call from the Prez of the YP, Darrel Peters, who cautioned me not to speak further to Daryl as "this is a very sensitive situation". None of this passed the smell test. And he quietly went away as smoke buddy Cynthia Kearns came onto the scene. If u remember, this set off a chain of events that caused me to be expelled from the YP Advisory Board within the following three weeks. Maybe mostly due to my musings on Party member markers coming due in the face of imminent electoral defeat. And so it is coming to pass it seems. Our latest Riding projection illustrates that the YP is poised to see only 4 MLA's win in September. I'd like to call it accurate projecting. Last summer, Brad Cathers called it "unfortunate self-fulfillment".

There were allegations in the Leg' yesterday that the Yukon Party Gov't offer to Novakowski to take over their land provision responsibility in Poter Creek included enuf land to service 44 lots for resale to Yukoners all for "a token sum". Let us be perfectly clear about what is going on in this proposal. A network systems administrator and self-professed part owner of Polarcom with apparently no ties to the land development sector has been anointed as facilitator and general contractor of a Porter Creek subdivision that should yield him 44 x $80k or $3,520,000 in gross revenues ... less of course his "token sum" purchase price. And the only thing that stands out as relevent on his resumé is his Yukon Party membership.

And let's put that in perspective. The public, the media and the Opposition were all hounding Dennis Fentie to call the Copperbelt By-Election last Autumn. Remember all the "there goes another Friday w/o the call" editorials? The YP couldn't find a candidate was the rumour. Then out-of-the-blue came Daryl Novakowski. They had their sacrificial lamb ... but at what price?! The implication in the new allegations that Dennis Fentie was instrumental in bringing Novakowski to the table in October and again was involved in his recent land negotiations is that the latter is payback for the first. Serious sh*t, folks.

Last Autumn, i pondered online about how many markers are floating out there. Is the $3.52 Million silver platter privatization contract to Novakowski the first of many favours to YP insiders that Yukoners are about to witness? Is the threat of blogger's scrutiny the reason that i was banned from attending the Novakowski Scandal press conference? The crack communications team knows i have two decades of experience in subdivision development process, sales and financing. Was Peter Carr frightened that i would ask too many pertinent questions? Like where and when was Novakowski's last land project? And what were his tasks? And is he bondable? And does their due diligence confirm that he has sufficient working capital? And did he have references and testimonials? TrendLiners know the answers already.

This week the Leg' was also the venue of disclosures that Elaine Taylor's father was the recipient of sole sourced contracts in Watson Lake. While Elaine is likely distanced from the upper level negotiations that were in play, the optics of yet another YP marker made good are not good.

On Dec 6th, i speculated on the self-fulfilling nature of lame duck administrations and that we may see YP MLA's either cross the floor or choose not to run. Elaine Taylor, Ted Staffen, John Edzerza & Dean Hassard are among my short list of principled persons that must shortly take a serious look deep within themselves and reconsider their loyalties and allegiance to the present Administration and Leadership. The wrong decision may irreparably associate them with the imminent charges of corruption and cronyism that are befalling Fentie and his inner circle. In short, do they go down with the ship ... or rather consider their options as "free agents" as John Edzerza so aptly put it last week's interviews.

Yukoners must be very close to demanding Regime Change.

While i applaud Art Mitchell and Gary McRobb in their voracity, they and the local media have shown that they are not up to the task at hand. They are amateurs and don't know what questions to ask. And are often seen chasing the wrong rabbit.

TrendLiners continue to be a great resource for me in attaining confidential and elusive information. But i don't always post what i hear. Some is filtered out 'cuz it is the material of vendetta. And some is so precious that it demands the tact of keeping one's powder dry for the correct moment.

At this time, i would request that y'all use the greatest effort in staying vigilant. With only 170 days 'til Regime Change, the fodder for unscrupulous actions is set. Watch from afar and advise. TrendLines will be your voice for that which u see as distasteful. Or the tasks that u are asked to perform sicken you.

The end is near and TrendLines pledges to connect the dots where others are oblivious ... or cautious. There may be some disclosures that the conventional media decides to shield from their audience for their own reasons.

It has been 48 hours since Peter Carr barred me from the normal course of my business including the interrogation of his Ministers. His action will have its consequences. He has challenged my credentials in an environment void of a local Press Council. His preventive strike further illustrates that he is a mere neophyte in this domain and his attempts at structuring the Premier's public persona continue t flounder. And no longer able to muffle his Ministers, Carr feebly tries in vain to quiet the messenger. Nice try...

Peter Carr is symptomatic of the problem with today's Yukon Party Gov't. They are consumed with process, longevity and spin rather than concentrating on what their own members demanded at last year's AGM: improve the substance of your activity. Fentie hasn't listened and his attitude pervades this top down administration.

The Liberal Federal Gov't was defeated in non-confidence based on charges of corruption and cronyism. That same fate now is on the doorstep of the Yukon Party Gov't excepting that it shall be in the court of public opinion where this regime will have to answer in the coming weeks. Unfortunately, its utter disregard for the media and Opposition weigh heavy on any attempt to defend itself from rumour and allegation. There are few that believe them after more than three years of stonewalling, ridicule and spin...

Novakowski's threat today to sue Pat Duncan as well over the recent allegations has no doubt sent a shudder thru the Cabinet and Premier's offices. But alas, it is only the vibration of their shredders working overtime. Damn those paper trails, eh. The Liberal Party must be relishing this. Truly that would be a gift from god in the weeks preceding an Election. Ask Alphonse Gagliano. Examination of Discovery procedures warrant the opportunity to awesome and unlimited requisitions of documents and testimony without the hindrance of ATIPP. Please, Daryl ... bring on your lawyers!

April 6th: Tonite's post was to be "Everything u Wanted to Know About the Yukon Budget ... But were Afraid to Ask". The Opposition has exhibited this week during Budget Debate and media interviews that both Parties lack the experience in economic affairs to either criticize this Budget or formulate one of their own should they win in September. However, the tenacious activity by the Opposition wrt the Novakowski Scandal again in the Leg' today leads me to consider elaborating on some enlightenment that i can shed on that issue. Daryl Novakowski is no stranger to TrendLiners and much of the ominous activity surrounding the Copperbelt nomination process now seems to be in play.

Debate on the Budget continues. Personally i am pleased with the ability to listen via the Leg's web streaming facilities rather than being forced to read the dull blues or hang out in the Leg' Press Gallery. And today we could be witnessing a crossroads that if the crack Communications team bungles again, could lead to the Yukoners' attention of who best can manage the future of the Yukon being pre-empted by months of investigation into growing claims of corruption and cronyism...

Update: But now it's 6:01pm and the Leg' closes off the week with yet another rather boisterous Question Period focused largely on the Novakowski Scandal rather than the new Budget. At first i thot this was merely a smear campaign in formation but recent events force us to take a closer look.

Let's start to connect the dots...

- First we have a Polarcom's network administrator approaching the City of W~h with a proposal for a 44-unit subdivision and doing such, Daryl Novakowski is alleged to have declared to the City representatives that he has in hand "a confidential agreement" from the Yukon Party Gov't that merits him some preferential treatment in developing those lands.

- Rightly so, the Opposition demands details from Minister Lang on what basis this lowly computer troubleshooter is qualified to develop the Porter Creek lands presently deemed green space. The inference is that Novakowski's affiliation with the Yukon Party and recent failed Nomination bid in Copperbelt are somewhat suspect in his new found fortune.

- For the first time since becoming journalistically inclined in 1989, TrendLines inquisitor Freddy Hutter, was yesterday barred from attending the Novakowski "clarification" news conference hosted by Minister Lang. My attendance at partisan events, news conferences, the Leg' & the Leg's Press Gallery had gone unimpeded 'til that intervention by Peter Carr.

- Today, Minister Lang was challenged by Gary McRobb to table "other similar endorsements" by this Minister of private sector developments on behalf of YTG. He did not respond.

- And now Dennis Fentie and the Gov't House Leader have proposed that the Leg' be shut down for several days during his absence.

Is it just me or did this Lame Duck Fentie Administration just get a whole lot Lamer? Perhaps terminally?

Arthur Mitchell and Gary McRobb are committed to bringing to light the events surrounding this scandal. TrendLines is inclined to assist them. With rumoured allegations that Fentie himself was involved in the negotiations of a Novakowski led privatization of the subdivision process, it begs the questions of why a private sector contracting of this particular land site and why this particular individual?

In recent Yukon history, there have been only a handful of private sector developments of YTG's land holdings. The lottery system has been initiated to preclude accusations of favouritism towards Yukon Party members. Then we had the Fish Lake fiasco. Further, there has been no consultation by lands staff with the public wrt to the terms of reference in the awarding of future private sector servicing developments. None.

As i alluded above, this is not TrendLines first confrontation with Daryl Novakowski. Why has he resurfaced and what are the larger implications. Let me speculate. Remember our October 19th musings (below)? I introduced the term "Lame Duck" to the YP Govt's situation. These revelations cont'd 'til Nov 22nd and in the end, i suggested that many Yukon Party member markers were about to be called...

During those few weeks, we pondered on some of the favours that would inevitably be presented to the Premier as it becomes clear in the coming months that his jig is up.

April 5th: Topaz goes to the vet & i went to the dentist. We both lived thru it but the reason it was not a good day lies with Fentie's crack communication team. And it ties in with the Novakowski Connection being discussed under parliamentary immunity at the Leg'. More on this developing scandal at 6:01pm tomorrow.

April 2nd: After receiving a standing ovation for his tribute to Ralph Klein on Saturday, Preston Manning virtually announced his candidacy for a run at the Alberta Tory Leadership. This is a dramatic turn of events that will add a new dynamic to affairs in the West...

April 1st: Looking for this morning's Cabinet Shuffle story? Sorry, check the date again.

March 31st: The March Update is our first since the expulsions. We waited 'til the very end of the month in case there was a third MLA move. It didn't happen. We have 4 Lead changes since January and we will be done all tabulations and graphs before the next AGM...

March 30th: Today was a difficult for Evalina and i. It started with entering the Leg' and pondering "do we sit on the Speaker's Right ... or the Left?" Like picking sides at a wedding or rather ... a funeral. We thot Question Period was painful and strained, but we stuck it through 'cuz hey, the Budget will redeem the wait, eh.

Wrong. With an economics background, budgets have fascinated me for a long time (decades). But WTF was the YP team thinking when they agreed to let Dennis Fentie stand up for over two hours reading the NWTel Phonebook. Geeezus F Christ. Two hours & 20 minutes? The Fed's don't do it. Ontario doesn't do it. But the fricken idiots in Communications thot it would be great. Again, WHAT THE FUCK WERE THEY THINKING?

The Budget is usually a Govt's honeymoon day. Captive audience. Free air time. And then sit back and wait for that bump in the polls. But all around the Yukon, all we heard was click. Click. Click. Channel 9 went dead. 93.5 FM went dead. And the new streaming internet ... dead. From Watson Lake to Beaver Creek to Old Crow ... folks turned off the Budget. Because Fentie's team turned them off. In tried and true fashion, most know that the attention span for a budget audience is about 45 minutes. But Dennis went on and on and on for hours with what most saw as re-announcements. First the Gallery disappeared. Then the Opposition were gone. And then the Media. Good thing Speaker Staffen is a YP member or the janitors may have moved in. Only Party solidarity gave Dennis an audience. Well except for the disgraced Education Minister. Another "personal day" we can assume, eh. What good is the message when nobody is listening. Think about it...

But it gets worse. We're down to three in the gallery. Me, Evalina and the back of somebody's head. Dennis glances behind himself and looks right up at me in Gallery. He says "if I may, Mr. Speaker, I would like to turn our attention to the gallery..." I'm blushing and about to crap my pants when just then and directly in front me ... Ed Schultz stands up. Sh*t. My moment shattered ...

Speaking of Ed, i missed his name Saturday morning when i was musing about potential Premiers. When we came to the Yukon, it was a pleasure to listen to his speeches on CHON, APTN, the papers. The guy was everywhere. He was articulate. And he knew the issues. Shortly after, his omnipresence became clear with his Leadership bid announcement. What did his fellow Liberals see that i missed? His tan?

Ed seems savvy to what folks want in a politician. But hey, i'm just a dumshit from Outside. Maybe he was a drug dealer in the past and nobody told me yet...

What? Oh ... Evalina says that's one of the other guys. OK.

Anyway, a new session has started and well ... it's the same old same old. After the embarrassment of the Copperbelt defeat, the Fentie cheerleader team retreated in shame and we all went into autopilot awaiting Todd's team to assume governance. But while his popular opinion soared to almost 38% ... Todd was nowhere to be seen or heard. Except during the ice storm.

Well that's ok. We're not all tree huggers here and nobody really wanted the social engineers back at the helm anyway. Hey. Let's give it (premiership reins) to Mikey. He'll eat anything. Uh, i mean Art. Arthur Mitchell. Y'know, the guy that gave up the good real estate job by beating Elvis et al. Come on folks. The guy that sits beside Pat Duncan. Yeah, finally. So, did y'all hear him give that barn burner speech at ... hmmm. Or that awesome letter to the editor? Nyet?

Nobody in Canada will disagree that Fentie dropped the ball today? Except for Gord, eh. After all he wrote the fucking thing. Gordo. Evalina interrupts with a message for ya. "Forget gawdamn Budgets. You suck at them. And instead, finish your history of the Yukon Party. It's been sitting half done for three years, eh!"

Thanx Evalina. I see u'r missing that Solidarity thingy again, eh. Back to regular programming. So, joining Gordo as cheerleader, i see we have Peter. And Rick. And Brad. What really sucks, is that while we have the budget speech fiasco of the century right here in W~h Yukon, the guy's poll numbers are going up and up. What does that tell ya?

Tells me we have no Opposition in the Leg'. And that's why we leave that responsibility to Julia at the Star. Chuck at CHON. And Graeme at TYN.

I'm starting to ramble, but CBC is the only TV channel at the Marina and they got another fricken Opera on tonite. Where is Dominic Da Vinci when u need him, anyways? He'd raise some sh*t North of 60. But i digress...

In most jurisdictions these days, a good Opposition presents as a prelude to a day like today "THE ALTERNATIVE BUDGET". Where is it, Todd? Art? Anybody? Andy? The Yukon is rife with wannabee Premiers. But Opposition is more than about opposing. It means presenting the "OTHER" vision. Where is Todd's vision of the Yukon for the next decade? Where is Art's version? And what is the First Nations' Outlook? We are mired in critics. But not constructive critics.

Between local Party' policy and Leaders' objectives, i sincerely hope that there is some substantial content being expressed. But unfortunately, neither the NDP nor the Liberals are getting the message out to Yukoners. Not as a Party. And not via their Leaders. Drawing up an Alternative Budget is not rocket science. But to sit in the cheap seats and heckle and throw peanut shells tells us something about their mettle...

Fentie fucked up so bad today, he's probably at the 98 for last call drowning his sorrows. Or out with his smoke buddies feeling no pain. And yet, he's on a path to victory in September 'cuz everyone on the other side of the Leg's is asleep at the wheel. Or lazy.

When Evalina started polling in July, one of the most remembered lines came from Dawson where they said all the candidates up here are idiots ... but Jenkins is the best of the lot.

Hold that thot. It is apropos to Dennis Fentie's fortune at this juncture.

The Satanists out there may take some solace in the "6-6-6" sign post ahead of us. The hardest climb of all of 'em on the road ahead is for the Yukon Party. Their recent bump to 29% is dick all. No conversion to seats. Due to poor concentration aspects, they don't get close to a Minority 'til about 37%. This Election is for Todd & Art to lose. As they fail to impress Yukoners as Parties-in-waiting to govern, their support is shifting to the Yukon Party. And there's 170 more days of bleeding...

Just as during the Federal race in January, we at TrendLines can sense by the hits on our site that change and excitement and Election fever is in the air. If one of the Opposition Parties can show that they have depth of experience when they present their candidate slate; and are capable of the hard work necessary in the transition, they will be given the reins to govern. But today ... today we saw them going thru the motions only. Hoping for the Gov't to stumble. And none presented us with the Vision of where they would take us by 2011...

An aging street kid. The winner of our space cadet contest. And an ex-realtor. Maybe 6-6-6 would be a good idea for a couple of years.

For those that are itching to know, we sat on the Left Side for Question Period. And on the Right during the Budget. Gotta keep 'em guessing. Evalina, is that Opera still on??

March 29th: Listen to the Yukon's finest political reporter this Friday at 7:30am on CHON-FM, Chuck Hendrie. Perhaps we'll find out who's crossing the floor next...

Evalina is ticked off 'cuz i'm not running for MLA anywhere. So she's off tonite to Toastmasters to sharpen her own skills. And it's a warning shot over the bow...

As such, there's no update on the Opinion Poll 'til late tomorrow nite. Unless she's out canvassing already!

March 28th: After 11 of 18 Ridings completed in our March Yukon Political Update, we have no lead changes to report among the Ridings. Will McRobb & Fairclough retain Kluane & Mayo-Tatchun? Stay tuned to see how the new Popular Opinion numbers below play out in our next MLA projection:

With our March Update we have added two new NDP Nominee candidates & one Liberal that are "testing the waters" while one Liberal hopeful has withdrawn. This rolling poll presently includes 239 calls to Decided Yukon voters in the previous 180 days and has a margin of error of 6.5% with an Undecided factor of 9%. We are now purging Sept/Oct/Nov data from our YTG database and pre-expulsion data in our Kluane & Mayo-Tatchun database to preserve the integrity and validity of the results...

March 27th Update: Ready for another floor crossing within seven days?!!

March 27th: Milestone time. We welcome our 20,000th visitor & 60,000th hit at TrendLines since we started the Blog last Autumn. Thanx for your support and many comments, rumours & announcements!

Got any juicy stuff to share from the floor or the line-up to the bar at the AGM's on the weekend??

March 25th: Our March survey is under way. TrendLines continues to get new "testing the waters" names and we are in conversation with several Nominee candidates that are spending this weekend soul searching and awaiting any "star" candidate announcements that may prevail at the two AGM's. There is immense pressure mounting on Dennis Fentie to drop the writ after presenting his Budget next week. It is based on the premise that a snap election will hold the Liberals to a Minority win. Allowing Art Mitchell to build on present momentum will likely gain them one seat per month as the year progresses. We presently project six Electoral Districts for the Liberal Party. By my logic, they would attain Majority status by Summer and possibly twelve seats by TrendLines target September Election.

Many Yukon Party members are dismayed by this strategy of cutting losses and holding the Liberals to a Minority in order to live to fight another day. Instead, they would like to see Fentie undergo a humbling makeover and earn a respectable Autumn win by model governance in the interim.

I am in that latter camp. The Fall session showed Yukoners that the Opposition is not ready to govern. There is much fear of the signal that electing another socialist regime will send to investors and stakeholders. The Yukon has momentum thanx to many nat'l & int'l factors and now is not the time to jeopardize our strengthening economy. The disarray in the NDP that presented itself over the Winter reflects that genuine concern.

However, the last Session also illustrated that there is uncertainty with the natural alternative ... the Liberal Party. Like the NDP and Todd Hardy, Art Mitchell failed to rise to the occasion. His Party is too green to govern. In his first weeks at the Leg' and in the community, Mitchell failed to make a single major speech that warranted media attention. Fortunately for him, almost nobody else did either. Not Pat. Not Todd. And certainly not any of the other Dippers. TimQ of the Yukon News humoured us with his revelation that all the Yukon Party Cabinet Ministers and MLA's were similarly speechless ... or muffled.

To be perfectly frank; and it gags me to say this: the only in-depth publicly available political dialogue is on CHON-FM on Friday mornings during Chuck Hendrie's "Breakfast with the Premier" segment. And continues with whomever Chuck chats with on-air. It is fair to say that the Yukon is favoured with potential "Premier" material amongst us: Hendrie, Mike Lauer, David Sloan, Don Inverarity & a myriad of past YTG politicians of various stripes come to mind. Our problem, folks, is that none of them is in the Leg'. Being rich in capable people does us no good unless they are pressured to run. Alternatively, that unfortunately leaves us with ... Dennis.

Within 180 days, we must elect a Premier. It's a heavy responsibility. For that person and us. Not to be taken lightly. Huge decisions are ahead for our jurisdiction and we need a proven Leader ... it is not the venue for on-the-job training. For all the same reasons Larry Bagnell was given a mandate in spite of the Federal Party tarnish, we are likely to give Fentie a short reprieve (in a Minority framework) 'til someone better enters the game.

Dennis Fentie has three choices this weekend: (1) Rally the troops and call an Election to hold Art Mitchell to a Minority; (2) Continue to suck in the public relations and communications realm and allow the Liberals to win a Majority in September; or (3) he can get off his high horse and mingle with the little people at Superstore and Wal-mart and govern with zeal and passion for six months and let the chips fall where they may, come Autumn. In the next few days, we will see what Fentie is made of. If he calls an Election, we will know that he is politically bankrupt.

Sometimes one must do that which is better for the Territory rather than one's self. In that same manner, i will take an unconventional move myself and help the Yukon Party with their decision not to call the snap election. This week's Press Release of our January Yukon Political Update no doubt adds to the momentum of the Yukon Liberals. It was downright gloomy for the YP... but would give credence to their neophyte strategists that are pondering whether they should strike while a left wing voter split is presenting itself. Such was the opportunity in BC last year as the Green/NDP splits paved a Campbell victory.

But here in the Yukon, i sense that the NDP demise is near. They will not be a player in the Election. After calls to 4 Ridings this week, TrendLines sees a developing "trend". A two way race between the Liberals and YP is forming. Dennis Fentie is plainly an opportunist if he calls an Election shortly and the electorate will duly punish that action. But if he pulls up the shirt sleeves and does some hard work, he can salvage both his image and the demise of the conservative Party.

There are two AGM's later this day... and huge decisions will be made behind the scenes ... somewhat based on consensus on the floor and also on fund raising prospects.

Here is what Yukoners are revealing thus far this Spring. The haemorrhaging has stopped. A window of opportunity exists for the cunning.

March 23rd: Much "thanx" to Matt of Minto (Palmerston) Ontario for this update to his Yukon Projection Map that graphically translates our January poll results:

Before the NDP AGM, we'll let u know what color to paint Kluane & Mayo-Tatchun. Will it be Liberal Red? Our March Update will be released just prior to the NDP AGM held on April 22nd. The results may shock you. Stay tuned...

Our last Yukon Politics Update revealed voters' opinion as at the end of October. That was followed by our successful projections for the Copperbelt By-Election and the Federal Yukon Riding. Today we are pleased to post our results showing Popular Opinion across the Territory and within each of the 17 (excl Copperbelt) Electoral Districts ... just in time for the Liberal & Yukon Party AGM's being held on Saturday! There are five lead changes and we culminate with our Leg' Projection which encompasses the recent expulsions from the NDP and the subsequent floor crossing by Gary McRobb to the Liberals.

A reminder that If u or anyone u know wants to test the waters and have your name added as an Indep't or potential Party Nominee candidate, please call or email us ASAP. With discretion, we are adding bona fide names prior to nomination meetings. You will see several below with *. The January Update introduces Frank Turner testing the waters for the NDP in the Lake Laberge Riding much to the dismay we assume of new Cabinet Minister, Brad Cathers. We are presently making calls for the March Update which will feature 2005 Liberal Leadership Candidate Elvis Presley of Ross River in Pelly-Nisutlin and Jorn Meier, NDP Nominee candidate in Dawson (Klondike). That 18-Riding survey will be released prior to the upcoming NDP AGM and will feature our new Poli-Poll question "Should Larry Bagnell cross-the-floor?"

Now back to our January Update. My right wing leanings have never been a secret to Yukon political junkies. The results below are highlighted by the fact that two more Cabinet Ministers (Elaine Taylor & Brad Cathers) are poised for defeat. That makes it all six. Fentie's whole Cabinet. Only he survives. I met Dennis exactly a year ago. And like the song goes "he's doing it his way". After the Autumn election we'll all get drunk and pick up the pieces. There is plainly nothing further to say...

We'll call this one "Dennis Fentie, RIP":

Popular Opinion across the Territory is presently reflected in TrendLines Leg' MLA Projection. Since October, we see that Elaine Taylor is poised to lose her W~h West Riding to a phantom NDP candidate; Brad Cathers is losing to NDP hopeful, Frank Turner; Peter Jenkins also trails a phantom NDP (now known to be Jorn Meier); We are pleased to report that Ted Staffen, Leg' Speaker, is our Phoenix-of-the-month. January's fifth lead change is Dale Cheeseman's capture of the lead in Porter Creek North. Our latest polling shows that both Opposition Parties now lead the lame duck Yukon Party. The latter continues to avoid all "outside assistance" cuz hey, they know Yukon best. Below, we have supplemented the January results with the subsequent floor crossing activity:

These rolling poll results are based on 214 calls to Decided Yukoners from Sept 29 - Jan 16 2006. There were 8% Undecided and the margin of error is 7% on the Party Popular Opinion and an avg 27% on the individual ridings. Calls older than 110 days of age have been deleted from the database.

March 22nd: "The West Wants In" was Stephen Harper's rally cry coined for Preston Harper a dozen years ago. On Jan 23, it became "the west is in!!" And we can see in the graph below that Yukoners could sense in past months that a seachange was underway...

The latest results are based on 154 Decided calls to Yukon voters during the Nov By-Election & Federal Election Campaigns (Nov 9 - Jan 14). The Undecided rate is 2% with a Margin of error factor of 8%.

March 16th: Gary McRobb & Art Mitchell announced this afternoon that Gary has been welcomed into the Liberal Caucus. The Liberal Leader states that he is speaking with Eric Fairclough but that MLA is still consulting with his constituents on their wishes for his direction. If u look at the March 8th graph, this seems to indicate that our present Riding Projection is now: 6 NDP MLA's, 5 for both Liberal & Yukon Parties & 2 Indept's. However, as stated March 9th, this graph reflects October/November polling data and the Dec/Jan data will show 5 lead changes that are not reflected below. Those results will be here next Thursday or Friday (just in time for the two AGM's next Saturday).

I would be remiss in stating the obvious. The ability of Art Mitchell and the Liberals to start the Session with the same number of MLA's as Todd Hardy gives the Yukon Liberal Party a strategic advantage going into the Election year. No longer is that party the 3rd Party trying to attain Governance from afar. Today we have a three-way race and only the Liberal Party has MOMENTUM. The Yukon Party is a LAME DUCK Administration. And the NDP is in utter disarray when only a few months ago it seemed like the Gov't-in-Waiting. The actions of the three leaders in the Spring Session's Question Period and in the communities and during the upcoming campaign will determine who is to be our Premier. Presently, Art is team building. Todd is still turning left. And the ever un-humble Dennis refuses a makeover. There are 190 days left...

It was announced this morning that the Leg' will reconvene for the Spring Session on March 30th. Being a General Election year, MLA's will likely sit 40 days 'til June 8th.

March 9th: With the Olympics over, we are finally tabulating our Dec/Jan YTG polling that yielded our outstanding Bagnell prediction (TrendLines: 48.5%; ElectionsCanada: 48.5%). Stay tuned!! Aside from the expulsions, we can reveal that TrendLines will be announcing at least 5 lead changes (incl 2 Cabinet Ministers) that will affect the graph below....

March 8th: We've merged last week's developments with our last published Autumn Projection. It does not reflect our polling results from December & January to be released prior to the Liberal & Yukon Party AGM's:

March 7th: Todd Hardy has announced that Yukon Party MLA's wishing to leaving that sinking ship will not be allowed to simply "cross the floor" and join his Caucus. Leading in the (October & December) polls, but not enuf to gain a Majority, Hardy welcomes new members but in a show of ideological fervour, it will be only under the condition that they run in the General Election as an NDP candidate. This has come to light as Hardy elaborated in a W~h Star interview that Cabinet Minister John Edzerza was also testing the waters this past Autumn and that his Caucus agreed that mid term, a disillusioned MLA should seek Indep't status and either wait for the next General Election or resign and run in the By-Election that must be called within 180 days and seek constituents' ratification of their decision to change allegiance. This in accordance to the private member motion that Hardy introduced in December that a sitting MLA must resign and run in a By-Election before joining another Party. This Motion appeared w/o Notice or Caucus collaboration and was initiated several days after a TrendLines Blog on Dec 8th that predicted that two MLA's would be joining the Liberal Caucus prior to the Leg' reconvening in the Spring.

Facing the very public disenchantment of his two MLA's, Todd Hardy had no choice but to remove Eric & Gary. The confidentiality and pre-election strategies discussed in caucus are no place for a member that is likely to jump ship. That was underscored in the timing of Belinda Stronach's move. The moral and ethical issues are obvious. Dennis Fentie now inherits that dilemma. He is Leader of a perceived Lame Duck administration facing Third Party status and the last thing he needs right now is being forced to expel Edzerza for all the same reasons that Hardy faced. From an optics point of view, John Edzerza must now consider being proactive in dealing with this very public exposure of his discontent, and should consider crossing the floor to sit either in the Liberal bench or as an Indep't. We all know how ugly Dennis can get when he wants someone "gone", eh...

March 2nd: Todd Hardy has expelled Eric Fairclough from the NDP Caucus. In August, Todd was our Premier-in-waiting. This leaves the Leg' makeup today as: 10 Yukon Party MLA's, 3 NDP, 2 Liberals & 3 Indept's. Application of the last TrendLines projection would indicate the new Leg' will be comprised of 6 NDP MLA's, 5 Liberals, 4 Yukon Party MLA's & 3 Indept's. In short, the Yukon Party is poised to lose three Ridings to the NDP & three to the Liberals in the next General Election which we are targeting for September. With the dynamics in play, methinx we can safely bet now on a Liberal Minority on the horizon with Arthur Mitchell recruiting McRobb & Fairclough, giving the Party 7 Ridings in total.

March 1st: As we see the two sides struggle for credibility and spin, it is becoming apparent that Todd Hardy had more warning signals than appears. TrendLines has openly suggested that Yukoners do not seem ready to anoint Hardy with the Premiership and growing Liberal support since their Leadership Convention illustrates that the third Party is a force to be reckoned with going into election year. This week's events may be viewed as a seachange on the political landscape of the Yukon. Events may unfold that determine the order of finish in the General Election, likely to be held in late September.

On that vane, TrendLines wishes to share with readers information on the unfolding of this event which sheds light on McRobb's questioning of why he alone was targeted with expulsion this week with correspondence dating back to Feb 20th to which we have become privy. But please don't let the local media lull you into chasing the wrong rabbit. The issue is not "should Eric be expelled too?" It is the bringing to public light the questioning of Hardy's Leadership within the Party. Only two seasons ago, the grasp of governance was at hand for the NDP. But Yukoners know this is crucial time in our history and there is seems to be open concern that Hardy is not Premier material and that his MLA's are not considered Cabinet-ready.

In the light of day, it is becoming obvious that Gary is an dipper and wanted to change the course of the NDP from within. It is clear that Todd knew this was tsunami was coming and he chose not to be pro-active in calming the waters. In that respect, i can empathize with McRobb. We have both criticized Parties from positions of influence based on broader support, but have been thwarted by head strong Leaders. Both Fentie and Hardy can take glee in their stubbornness, but it will be the results of the General Election that will show whether their actions were for the good of their respective Parties and Yukoners.

We may be watching the catapulting of the Liberal Party into "Gov't-in-waiting" status (by default?). You will no doubt be eager to see TrendLines reveal how this all plays out in public opinion polls over the next few weeks.

Feb 28th: On Dec 8th we surprised Yukoners with a prediction that the start of the Spring Legislature would be highlighted with the defection of two MLA's to the Liberal ranks. With Todd Hardy's expulsion today of Gary McRobb for "shopping around", we can now await the other shoe to drop. CBC is reporting this evening that Art Mitchell expects Eric Fairclough to cross the floor as well.

While CBC has used Todd's interview with CBC to make this event sound very clandestine, TrendLines would like to enlighten Yukoners to Gary McRobb's "letter to his Kluane constituents" that brought about today's events.

While Belinda Stronach & David Emerson have recently brought disrepute to the art of crossing the floor, Gary joins a select few that have sought to do it honestly and with full disclosure. We applaud his good conscience tho it might have been advisable for him to resign from Caucus in conjunction with yesterday's distribution of the letter. Todd Hardy's hand was forced with the absence of a third option within the letter: one to stay with the NDP.

While we appreciate loyal TrendLines watchers that have passed on some consulting work our way, that and servicing other segments of our website has caused a short delay to our release of a winter update to our YTG rolling poll. Please be patient for some new graphs which at the latest will be just prior to the Yukon Party's AGM.

Feb 23rd: After all the furor, the publisher puts recent events in context and has no regrets. An apology for offending ... no apology for the right to publish:

Why I published the cartoons by Flemming Rose Jyllands-Posten, Denmark

Thursday, February 23, 2006 COPENHAGEN - Childish. Irresponsible. Hate speech. Critics of my decision to publish 12 cartoons of the prophet Muhammad in the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten have not minced their words. They say that freedom of expression does not mean insulting people's religious feelings. And besides, they add, the media censor themselves every day. I agree that the freedom to publish things doesn't mean you publish everything. Jyllands-Posten would not publish pornographic images or graphic details of dead bodies. So we are not fundamentalists in our support for freedom of expression. But the cartoon story is different. The above-cited examples have to do with exercising restraint because of ethical standards and taste; call it editing. By contrast, I commissioned the cartoons in response to several incidents of self-censorship in Europe caused by widening fears of intimidation in dealing with issues related to Islam. And I still believe that this is a topic that Europeans must confront, challenging moderate Muslims to speak out. In September, a Danish standup comedian said in an interview with Jyllands-Posten that he had no problem urinating on the Bible in front of a camera, but he dared not do the same thing with the Koran. This was the culmination of a series of disturbing instances of self-censorship. Last September, a Danish children's writer had trouble finding an illustrator for a book about the life of Muhammad. Three people turned down the job for fear of consequences. European translators of a critical book about Islam also did not want their names to appear on the book cover beside the name of the author, a Somalian-born Dutch politician who has herself been forced into hiding. Around the same time, the Tate gallery in London withdrew an installation by the avant-garde artist John Latham depicting the Koran, Bible and Talmud torn to pieces. The museum explained that it did not want to stir things up after the London bombings. Finally, at the end of September, Danish PM Anders Fogh Rasmussen met with a group of imams, one of whom called on the prime minister to interfere with the press in order to get more positive coverage of Islam. So, over two weeks, we witnessed many cases of self-censorship, pitting freedom of speech against the fear of confronting issues about Islam. This was a legitimate news story to cover, and Jyllands-Posten decided to do it by adopting the well-known journalistic principle: Show it, don't tell it. I wrote to members of the association of Danish cartoonists asking them "to draw Muhammad as you see him." We certainly did not ask them to make fun of the prophet. Twelve out of 25 active members responded. We have a tradition of satire when dealing with the royal family and other public figures, and that was reflected in the cartoons. The cartoonists treated Islam the same way they treat Christianity, Buddhism, Hinduism and other religions. And by treating Muslims in Denmark as equals, they made a point: We are integrating you into the Danish tradition of satire because you are part of our society, not strangers. The cartoons do not in any way demonize Muslims. In fact, they differ from one another both in the way they depict the prophet and in whom they target. One cartoon makes fun of Jyllands-Posten, portraying its cultural editors as a bunch of reactionary provocateurs. Another suggests that the children's writer who could not find an illustrator for his book went public just to get cheap publicity. A third puts the head of the anti-immigration Danish People's Party in a lineup, as if she is a suspected criminal. One cartoon -- depicting the prophet with a bomb in his turban -- has drawn the harshest criticism. Angry voices claim the cartoon is saying that the prophet is a terrorist or that every Muslim is a terrorist. I read it differently: Some individuals have taken the religion of Islam hostage by committing terrorist acts in the name of the prophet. They are the ones who have given the religion a bad name. The cartoon also plays into the fairy tale about Aladdin and the orange that fell into his turban and made his fortune. This suggests that the bomb comes from the outside world and is not an inherent trait of the prophet. On occasion, Jyllands-Posten has refused to print satirical cartoons of Jesus, but not because it applies a double standard. In fact, the same cartoonist who drew the image of Muhammad with a bomb in his turban drew a cartoon with Jesus on the cross having dollar notes in his eyes and another with the star of David attached to a bomb fuse. There were, however, no embassy burnings when we published those. Has Jyllands-Posten insulted and disrespected Islam? It certainly didn't intend to. But what does "respect" mean? When I visit a mosque, I show my respect by taking off my shoes. I follow the customs, just as I do in a church, synagogue or other holy place. But if a believer demands that I, as a nonbeliever, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect, but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. I acknowledge that some people have been offended by the publication of the cartoons, and Jyllands-Posten has apologized for that. But we cannot apologize for our right to publish material, even offensive material. You cannot edit a newspaper if you are paralyzed by worries about every possible insult. I am offended by things in the paper every day: transcripts of speeches by Osama bin Laden, photos from Abu Ghraib, people insisting that Israel should be erased from the face of the Earth, people saying the Holocaust never happened. But that does not mean that I would refrain from printing them as long as they fell within the limits of the law and of the newspaper's ethical code. That other editors would make different choices is the essence of pluralism. As a former correspondent in the Soviet Union, I am sensitive about calls for censorship on the grounds of insult. This is a popular trick of totalitarian movements: Label any critique or call for debate as an insult and punish the offenders. That is what happened to human rights activists and writers such as Andrei Sakharov, Vladimir Bukovsky, Alexander Solzhenitsyn, Natan Sharansky, Boris Pasternak. The regime accused them of anti-Soviet propaganda, just as some Muslims are labelling 12 cartoons in a Danish newspaper anti-Islamic. The lesson from the Cold War is: If you give in to totalitarian impulses once, new demands follow. The West prevailed in the Cold War because we stood by our values and did not appease totalitarian tyrants. Since the Sept. 30 publication of the cartoons, we have had a constructive debate in Denmark and Europe about freedom of expression, freedom of religion and respect for immigrants and people's beliefs. Never before have so many Danish Muslims participated in a public dialogue -- in town hall meetings, letters to editors, opinion columns and debates on radio and TV. We have had no anti-Muslim riots, no Muslims fleeing the country and no Muslims committing violence. The radical imams who misinformed their counterparts in the Middle East about the situation for Muslims in Denmark have been marginalized. They no longer speak for the Muslim community in Denmark because moderate Muslims have had the courage to speak out against them. A network of moderate Muslims committed to the constitution has been established, and the anti-immigration People's Party called on its members to differentiate between radical and moderate Muslims, i.e. between Muslims propagating sharia law and Muslims accepting the rule of secular law. The Muslim face of Denmark has changed, and it is becoming clear that this is not a debate between "them" and "us," but between those committed to democracy in Denmark and those who are not. This is the sort of debate that Jyllands-Posten had hoped to generate when it chose to test the limits of self-censorship. Did we achieve our purpose? Yes and no. Some of the spirited defenses of our freedom of expression have been inspiring. But tragic demonstrations throughout the Middle East and Asia were not what we anticipated much less desired. Moreover, the newspaper has received 104 registered threats, 10 people have been arrested, cartoonists have been forced into hiding because of threats against their lives and Jyllands-Posten's headquarters have been evacuated several times due to bomb threats. This is hardly a climate for easing self-censorship. Still, I think the cartoons now have a place in two separate narratives, one in Europe and one in the Middle East. In the words of the Somalian-born Dutch politician Ayaan Hirsi Ali, the integration of Muslims into Europe has been sped up by 300 years due to the cartoons; perhaps we do not need to fight the battle for the Enlightenment all over again in Europe. The narrative in the Middle East is more complex, but that has very little to do with the cartoons.

Feb 21st: 8:29pm - The 2006 Yukon Quest has been won by Lance Mackey (last year's winner from Kasilof Alaska) mushing into Dawson City 72 minutes ahead of 3x's winner Hans Gatt of Atlin, with William Kleedehn (last year's 2nd place finisher from Mt Lorne) only six minutes behind.

Visit YukonQuest.com for finish order...

photo of Frank Turner Team by Carsten Thies

Feb 17th: Ever so slowly the truth behind the organizers of the riots is coming out ... and some clarity on those oh so rigid new rules surrounding caricatures and likenesses. A stark reminder of the control moves set out by the Taliban several years ago. This is appearing more to be about manipulation than religion. Why am i not surprised?

CULTURE CLASH Bonfire of the Pieties Islam prohibits neither images of Muhammad nor jokes about religion. BY AMIR TAHERI Wednesday, February 8, 2006 "The Muslim Fury," one newspaper headline screamed. "The Rage of Islam Sweeps Europe," said another. "The clash of civilizations is coming," warned one commentator. All this refers to the row provoked by the publication of cartoons of the prophet Muhammad in a Danish newspaper four months ago. Since then a number of demonstrations have been held, mostly--though not exclusively--in the West, and Scandinavian embassies and consulates have been besieged.

But how representative of Islam are all those demonstrators? The "rage machine" was set in motion when the Muslim Brotherhood--a political, not a religious, organization--called on sympathizers in the Middle East and Europe to take the field. A fatwa was issued by Yussuf al-Qaradawi, a Brotherhood sheikh with his own program on al-Jazeera. Not to be left behind, the Brotherhood's rivals, Hizb al-Tahrir al-Islami (Islamic Liberation Party) and the Movement of the Exiles (Ghuraba), joined the fray. Believing that there might be something in it for themselves, the Syrian Baathist leaders abandoned their party's 60-year-old secular pretensions and organized attacks on the Danish and Norwegian embassies in Damascus and Beirut. The Muslim Brotherhood's position, put by one of its younger militants, Tariq Ramadan--who is, strangely enough, also an adviser to the British home secretary--can be summed up as follows: It is against Islamic principles to represent by imagery not only Muhammad but all the prophets of Islam; and the Muslim world is not used to laughing at religion. Both claims, however, are false. There is no Quranic injunction against images, whether of Muhammad or anyone else. When it spread into the Levant, Islam came into contact with a version of Christianity that was militantly iconoclastic. As a result some Muslim theologians, at a time when Islam still had an organic theology, issued "fatwas" against any depiction of the Godhead. That position was further buttressed by the fact that Islam acknowledges the Jewish Ten Commandments--which include a ban on depicting God--as part of its heritage. The issue has never been decided one way or another, and the claim that a ban on images is "an absolute principle of Islam" is purely political. Islam has only one absolute principle: the Oneness of God. Trying to invent other absolutes is, from the point of view of Islamic theology, nothing but sherk, i.e., the bestowal on the Many of the attributes of the One. The claim that the ban on depicting Muhammad and other prophets is an absolute principle of Islam is also refuted by history. Many portraits of Muhammad have been drawn by Muslim artists, often commissioned by Muslim rulers. There is no space here to provide an exhaustive list, but these are some of the most famous: A miniature by Sultan Muhammad-Nur Bokharai, showing Muhammad riding Buraq, a horse with the face of a beautiful woman, on his way to Jerusalem for his M'eraj or nocturnal journey to Heavens (16th century); a painting showing Archangel Gabriel guiding Muhammad into Medina, the prophet's capital after he fled from Mecca (16th century); a portrait of Muhammad, his face covered with a mask, on a pulpit in Medina (16th century); an Isfahan miniature depicting the prophet with his favorite kitten, Hurairah (17th century);

Kamaleddin Behzad's miniature showing Muhammad contemplating a rose produced by a drop of sweat that fell from his face (19th century); a painting, "Massacre of the Family of the Prophet," showing Muhammad watching as his grandson Hussain is put to death by the Umayyads in Karbala (19th century);

a painting showing Muhammad and seven of his first followers (18th century);

and Kamal ul-Mulk's portrait of Muhammad showing the prophet holding the Quran in one hand while with the index finger of the other hand he points to the Oneness of God (19th century). Some of these can be seen in museums within the Muslim world, including the Topkapi in Istanbul, and in Bokhara and Samarkand, Uzbekistan, and Haroun-Walat, Iran (a suburb of Isfahan). Visitors to other museums, including some in Europe, would find miniatures and book illuminations depicting Muhammad, at times wearing his Meccan burqa (cover) or his Medinan niqab (mask). There have been few statues of Muhammad, although several Iranian and Arab contemporary sculptors have produced busts of the prophet. One statue of Muhammad can be seen at the building of the U.S. Supreme Court, where the prophet is honored as one of the great "lawgivers" of mankind. There has been other imagery: the Janissaries--the elite of the Ottoman army--carried a medallion stamped with the prophet's head (sabz qaba). Their Persian Qizilbash rivals had their own icon, depicting the head of Ali, the prophet's son-in-law and the first Imam of Shiism. As for images of other prophets, they run into millions. Perhaps the most popular is Joseph, who is presented by the Quran as the most beautiful human being created by God. Now to the second claim, that the Muslim world is not used to laughing at religion. That is true if we restrict the Muslim world to the Brotherhood and its siblings in the Salafist movement, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and al Qaeda. But these are all political organizations masquerading as religious ones. They are not the sole representatives of Islam, just as the Nazi Party was not the sole representative of German culture. Their attempt at portraying Islam as a sullen culture that lacks a sense of humor is part of the same discourse that claims "suicide martyrdom" as the highest goal for all true believers. The truth is that Islam has always had a sense of humor and has never called for chopping heads as the answer to satirists. Muhammad himself pardoned a famous Meccan poet who had lampooned him for more than a decade. Both Arabic and Persian literature, the two great literatures of Islam, are full of examples of "laughing at religion," at times to the point of irreverence. Again, offering an exhaustive list is not possible. But those familiar with Islam's literature know of Ubaid Zakani's "Mush va Gorbeh" (Mouse and Cat), a match for Rabelais when it comes to mocking religion. Sa'adi's eloquent soliloquy on behalf of Satan mocks the "dry pious ones." And Attar portrays a hypocritical sheikh who, having fallen into the Tigris, is choked by his enormous beard. Islamic satire reaches its heights in Rumi, where a shepherd conspires with God to pull a stunt on Moses; all three end up having a good laugh. Islamic ethics is based on "limits and proportions," which means that the answer to an offensive cartoon is a cartoon, not the burning of embassies or the kidnapping of people designated as the enemy. Islam rejects guilt by association. Just as Muslims should not blame all Westerners for the poor taste of a cartoonist who wanted to be offensive, those horrified by the spectacle of rent-a-mob sackings of embassies in the name of Islam should not blame all Muslims for what is an outburst of fascist energy. Mr. Taheri is the author of "L'Irak: Le Dessous Des Cartes" (Editions Complexe, 2002). Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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Clash of Civilization The dictators behind those Muslim cartoon protests. Saturday, February 11, 2006 As a way of addressing the Islamist threat to civil liberties in Europe, the Danish cartoons of the prophet Muhammad were hardly ideal. The right to mock a religion may be absolute, but so is the right to publish most forms of pornography: Neither is appropriate in a serious publication. That applies whether the religion is Islam, Christianity or any other, and whether the cartoons are being published for the first time or reprinted elsewhere as acts of solidarity in the face of an implied threat. But after the attacks on Western embassies in Beirut, Damascus and Tehran, the murder of a Catholic priest in Turkey, the death of at least a dozen people throughout the Middle East in anti-Danish rioting and protests in Europe in which Muslim demonstrators urged a "real Holocaust" on the West, questions about press freedom seem almost quaint. What we are dealing with here is something else entirely. That something else might be called the premodernism of much of modern-day Islam, meaning the apparent unwillingness of too many Muslims to place reason above "honor" and deal proportionately with intellectual provocations. The Western philosophical tradition is founded on the belief that the execution of Socrates for blaspheming the gods of Athens was an injustice. When British Muslims carry placards reading "Butcher those who mock Islam," they are making their differences with that tradition depressingly plain. Such premodernism is also on display among those Muslims who have forgotten the reciprocal obligations that the principle of "respect for religion" requires. We'll take the Islamic clerical establishment at its word that Islam forbids pictorial depictions of Muhammad--and look forward to their fatwas against the anti-Semitic caricatures routinely featured in the Arab and Persian press. Yet mass demonstrations almost never represent mainstream public sentiment in the West. Why then should we take it as given that they do among Muslims? Every society has its silent majorities, but it's only in democracies that those majorities exercise a decisive influence. If Islamic societies seem premodern and violent, this surely has something to do with the fact that most Muslim countries today are places where there is no democracy; where silent majorities stay silent; where, to adapt W.H. Auden, "only the man behind the rifle has free speech." So it has been in the case of the cartoons, which were first published in September, to the fairly muted protests of Danish Muslims. Ambassadors of 10 Muslim countries demanded that the Danish government "take all those responsible to task," apparently forgetting that, unlike in their own countries, Danish authorities do not serve as press censors. Around the same time, an Egyptian newspaper reprinted the cartoons without drawing any noticeable wrath from Muslim clerics. It was only after a December meeting of the 56 member states of the Organization of Islamic Conferences--all but a handful of which are dictatorships or absolute monarchies--that the "outrage" really took wing. No surprise here: as Sari Hanafi of the American University in Beirut told the New York Times, these autocracies made use of the cartoons (the most offensive of which were fabrications) as a way of showing that the expansion of freedom and democracy in their countries would lead inevitably to the denigration of Islam. From there it was but a short hop to the airwaves of al-Jazeera (owned by the Emir of Qatar), whose in-house cleric, Yussuf Qaradawi, a member of the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood, issued a fatwa calling for a "day of anger." Put simply, what we have witnessed isn't the proverbial rage of the Arab street. It's an orchestrated effort by illiberal regimes, colluding with fundamentalist clerics, to conjure the illusion of Muslim rage for their own political purposes. The Iranian mullahs seek to discredit Denmark as it assumes the rotating presidency of the U.N. Security Council, where Iran's nuclear program is being discussed. The secular Allawite regime in Syria wants to shore up its ties with the Sunni religious establishment, especially now that Bashar Assad's former vice president has declared a government in exile. The Saudis want to put behind them the latest stampede at the annual Hajj, where some 350 pilgrims were killed. And in Europe, clerics and self-styled "community leaders" with close links to the Saudi government or the Brotherhood want to assert their dominance over populations that have yet to find their social or economic place in the mainstream of European life, as November's riots in France showed. The fact that European governments seem easily cowed by threats of violence has only made the problem worse. In all the uproar, we find it telling that the two places where Muslim communities have shown restraint and moderation is in the United States and Iraq. American Muslims are overwhelmingly middle class, upwardly mobile and not very susceptible to the atavistic urgings of distant dictatorships. In Iraq, an unsilent majority has repeatedly made its views plain about the religious fanatics who demand to speak in their name. Just imagine the kind of anti-Western protests that would be taking place there now if Saddam were still in power. There's a lesson in this for those who would have us believe that what this cartoon conflagration represents is a conflict of civilizations. There is a conflict all right, not between civilizations, but within one, and it pits those who would make Islam barbaric and those who would keep it civilized. In that struggle, the heirs of Socrates and the heirs of al-Farabi must make common cause. Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Feb 16th: Thanx to Mike Lauer for his forward of this thought provoking note:

Muslim outrage huh. OK ... let's do a little historical review.

Muslims fly commercial airliners into buildings in New York City. No Muslim outrage.

	Muslim officials block the exit where school girls are trying to escape a burning building because their faces were exposed. No Muslim outrage.
	Muslims cut off the heads of three teenaged girls on their way to school in Indonesia. A Christian school. No Muslim outrage.
	Muslims murder teachers trying to teach Muslim children in Iraq. No Muslim outrage.
	Muslims murder over 80 tourists with car bombs outside cafes and hotels in Egypt. No Muslim outrage.
	A Muslim attacks a missionary children's school in India. Kills six. No Muslim outrage.
	Muslims slaughter hundreds of children and teachers in Beslan, Russia. Muslims shoot children in the back. No Muslim outrage.
	Let's go way back. Muslims kidnap and kill athletes at the Munich Summer Olympics. No Muslim outrage.
	Muslims fire rocket-propelled grenades into schools full of children in Israel. No Muslim outrage.
	Muslims murder more than 50 commuters in attacks on London subways and busses. Over 700 are injured. No Muslim outrage.
	Muslims massacre dozens of innocents at Passover Seder. No Muslim outrage.
	Muslims murder innocent vacationers in Bali. No Muslim outrage.
	Muslim newspapers publish anti-Semitic cartoons. No Muslim outrage.
	Muslims are involved, on one side or the other, in almost every one of the 125+ shooting wars around the world. No Muslim outrage.
	Muslims beat the charred bodies of Western civilians with their shoes, then hang them from a bridge. No Muslim outrage.
	Newspapers in Denmark and Norway publish cartoons depicting Mohammed. Muslims are outraged.

Dead children. Dead tourists. Dead teachers. Dead doctors and nurses. Death, destruction and mayhem around the world at the hands of Muslims .. no Muslim outrage ...

but publish a cartoon depicting Mohammed with a bomb in his turban and all hell breaks loose!

What's the matter with this picture???

Feb 15th: Stephen Harper says in a press release this week that he prefers that Canadians don't publish the Muslim Cartoons. What can i say? He's wimping out like many Western leaders. To me, the violent reaction by muslim mobs in killing, injuring and damaging property seemed "over the top" and was the basis for my searching out the cartoons to see what was so inflammatory. And nothing was there. Nothing. Didley squat. I am sure the republishing going on country to country is in sympathy for this whole thing getting out of context and exposing that fact. Thought police and the ultra politically correct agenda are foreign to me. And thus i was glad to reproduce them in solidarity. "They" can't burn down 160 embassies. Increasing the targets defuses the issue. Analogous to the "will the guilty person step forward?" seen on many boot camp type movies. The more that join in and step forward the better. ..

As more people find out what this is all about, or not about, they will realize that their Leaders and university presidents were merely playing to this new domain of fear that we live in. The decision is politically motivated. We don't urge similar respect for newfies, the polish, dippers or indians. Are muslims now the distinct society?

Valentines: Heading to the Wolf's Den with Evalina for some authentic Swiss cuisine and good wine!

Feb 6th Update: 12 satirical drawings, published by the danish newspaper JP, has reached worldwide attention as well as outrage, violence and condemnation in the muslim world (note: terror has not). The drawings have become a symbol of the muslim threat to free speech. Papers all over the world have re-published the drawings, politicians around the globe have expressed their support, and websites all over hyperspace use and display the images in sympathy.

Are the cartoons outrageous or merely a plot by extremists to inflame hatred among the ignorant and uneducated? Most of the protesters have not seen the cartoons. I am not making this up. TrendLines ventures often into the realm of political incorrectness and in solidarity is pleased (via a network of int'l websites) to assist Yukoners & Canadians make their own decisions on this issue with this first North American posting of the subject matter. And not have others censor what u read and see. We have seen this past week radicals calling for jihad openly in the streets of major cities. And inflammatory posters. TrendLines will let u judge if the uproar passes the smell test...

Click on the graphic below to see all 12 and the latest on this controversy:

Feb 6th: Ahhh, champagne breakfast!! This is a sweet morning for those of us that were fortunate enuf to have been associated with Preston Manning in the early days. He made many trips from 1990-93 to the Golden Triangle ridings where i was Prez of the Kitchener Reform constituency, as it was hoped that Waterloo Region would be the Ontario breakthru that he cherished. That was not to be, but that progress was tracked diligently as these were also the the virgin years of TrendLines polls!! That's when i met Evalina and this was her first job in Canada. Today is the culmination of almost two decades of grass roots rebuilding that started in the HoC with the by-election victory of Deb Grey in March of 1989; the rise to Official Opposition status; the unite the Right episode; and the recent electoral mandate to govern albeit as a Minority. Ok, the waiting is over. It's 8:17am and Stephen is finally coming up to make the Oath ... Pop!!!

9:30am update: we killed the bottle. but what a rant i had to listen to. she is livid over the oath to the queen elizabeth duh ... or, was it deux? no matter. to many of us, it's just a remnant from the past. but boy, does it ever piss off non-anglo's! she says that akin to the quebecois today, she more than choked over those same words in her citizenship ceremony. a silent protest that when unnoticed. as an anti-monarchist, i share the sentiment...

evening update: see the new cabinet

Feb 4th: Yukoners must choose a new Premier and MLA's in a few months. Fentie shoulda been oudda the race by now, but a relatively soft Autumn Session where the reporters at CHON-FM peppered the Administration with far better Questions than the Opposition, gives the Yukon Party one final kick at the cat. The Federal Election monopolised the scene January, but as the transition team is at work in Ottawa, eyes again focused on the Territory. The Liberals are strangely silent. Apparently waiting for Premier-in-waiting Todd Hardy to drop the ball. Instead, he and Louise were checking up on Seniors and the disabled during the power blackout and ever present at drug awareness open houses. And what was up with the Lame Duck YP this week? Again sticking fingers in the dike (their critics are more descriptive...).

The Yukon Party has a rich history. But the futility of the Fentie version is summed in this article by JuliaS in the Feb 1st W~h Star. Please read it. It's revelations of the current state of the YP is very illuminating. The Party's webmaster, president & Premier all confused, deceitful and incapable of putting out even a brush fire at this juncture. It is a top down regime that at this point in time is completely dysfunctional. I luv the part: "none of us are that computer literate".

Is the B-team led by these three stooges representative of who we want running YTG for the next four years? Does the Yukon deserve better?

This Election can not come too soon...

Feb 3rd: Milestone time. We welcome our 15,000th visitor & 50,000th hit at TrendLines since we started the Blog. Thanx for your support and comments!

Feb 2nd: So just who was the secret author of the commentary at the YP website. The YP Exec infers al Qaeda did it. I am not making this up. Send us your choices and rumours...

Feb 1st: The Yukon Party executive seem to be taking on a proactive role that is remiss in Fentie's crack communication team. Methinx that this attack on the Federal NDP is meant to subliminally challenge Yukoners not to vote for Todd and the Territorial Party ... birds of a feather and all that. There was no visible support of the Yukon Party for the Conservatives in last month's Election. Now that the Tories have won, somebody wants to get cozy?

We continually see Fentie and the Party attacking the Opposition. They should learn from Paul Martin's disgraced campaign team that it is sometimes better to discuss issues and your record rather than resort to negativism. Comments in our polling showed that even Pam Boyde paid a price for attacking Larry moreso than the Liberal Party during the Election.

Today, Justice John Gomery called for a new "culture of integrity" in gov't and the civil service. Dennis has 240 days left in his mandate. Can he heed those words? The perception "out der" is that his administration is cold and out of touch with most Yukoners. And that he is too cocky for his own good. And that he forgets that this is a small jurisdiction.

Federally, folks were ready for "change". The right wing sentiment that made Stephen Harper our new Prime Minister should be alive and well here in the Territory. If the Yukon Conservative Party had run a strong flag bearer rather than a paper candidate, we would have a new MP this month. But they dropped the ball doing the "why bother" thingy. And the Yukon Party is similarly missing a golden opportunity. Instead of addressing the issues and voicing a vision for the Yukon future in anticipation of the September Election, the Party & the Fentie Gov't are in hiding and throwing the odd hand grenade. We are watching a Lame Duck Administration wind down...

Dennis will need lots of help after he sees our January Yukon Politics Update on "the state of the union". Here's the commentary on their website:

Yukon Party News

Another Canadian Federal Election has been held and we have given ourselves another minority government. This time it is a Conservative minority and no longer a Liberal minority.

With only 124 seats, this Conservative minority is in an even more precarious situation than the previous Liberal minority was. We can only hope that this government will be permitted to fulfill the commitments it made during the election. I hope it is able to form a coalition with the Bloc Quebecois. Dan Davidson, a Dawson City correspondent from Dawson, has informed us that they are, for the most part, Conservatives who were alienated by Mulroney. Perhaps a reaffiliation can be developed similar to that done with the Canadian Alliance.

Such an accord would, in my view, be much preferable to submitting to NDP blackmail as was perpetrated on the Liberal minority. The anti-business policies of the NDP are completely incomprehensible. Even more incomprehensible is the support for the NDP by unionized workers. Don't they realize that the anti-business, anti-profit policies of the NDP cause businesses to close or move to more friendly jurisdictions? Don't they realize this costs them, the workers, jobs and the self-respect of caring for their families?

I am not making this up. All we need to do is review what happened to the British Columbia, Ontario, and Yukon economies when NDP provincial/territorial governments were elected. The Yukon has been this foolish twice; let's not do it again!!

The Yukon Party
Box 31113,
Whitehorse, YT Y1A 5P7

Phone: (867) 668-6505
Email: info@yukonparty.ca

Jan 28th: Yesterday was my birthday and thru a strange turn of events, i ended up celebrating three times. When neighbours came a day too early, the martini's came out. Last nite, i was invited to moose ribs. And tonite we had a feast of roast bison. I luv the Yukon.

Jan 26th: Robbie Burns Day is over. Haggis & Ballantine's Finest was the menu last nite. Evalina and i will try anything once a year, but we agreed it's fortunate that our heritage is Hungarian & Polish... not Scottish. If u celebrate belatedly, call Tom at the Scottish Baker in Marsh Lake for the authentic fresh frozen meal or coils (660.4067).

Jan 24th: The pony tail is safe!

It was difficult to call the order. Sue & Pam were back & forth in the fight for second during our Yukon polling. Evalina Zamana does our sampling and random calls and deserves the credit for our second excellent Election Call. If u remember, she was out only 0.6 to 1.2% on Copperbelt in the November By-election.

	Larry Bagnell Liberal	Pam Boyde NDP	Sue Greetham CPC
Elections Canada (Jan 23)	48.5	23.9	23.7
TrendLines (Jan 20)	48.5	26.6	23.8

During the Fed Election survey, we also polled for YTG and our hallmark Secession survey. We were asked about them at the post-Election parties last nite. BTW, the NDP are the best partiers (margin of error 3%)!! The Yukon Riding Projection and the 18 Riding graphs will be tabulated and released in February. It was mused last nite several times that all of a sudden those graphs will be a lot more believable, if u know what i mean, eh...

On reflection, the Election results are fair. Larry Bagnell is the most knowledgeable on the issues and a very hard worker both during his mandate and during campaigning. He visited all 14 FN Bands in the Territory. From the 2004 Result, he gained in both total votes and percentage. An awesome feat in light of his Party's demise on the national scene.

Pam Boyde won the sign war, visited 11 FN Bands and seemed very passionate in discussing those issues with which she was comfortable. Both of them have been at this a while and they have honed their answers and speeches. But she is a lightweight on any detailed vision for the Yukon. Altho well intentioned and out-of-context on my part, "beading" is not our salvation towards a sustainable economy.

Sue Greetham was a paper candidate. I trust many Conservatives parked their vote with Sue in preparation for the Party's next try at a Majority. Thanx to her and the other one, James Hartle in 2004, the Yukon Conservatives have been able to retain their core vote. Nobody from the CPC wants to run against Larry and his record. He is a formidable opponent. And their supporters did not bleed off to the other three Parties in the total absence of a candidate. She can't discuss issues or policy coherently. She went to one FN band and most of them refused to meet her with her 'cuz they know she was visiting only for the exposure and is not a player in gov't-to-gov't discussions. The settling and administration of the Land Claims and Self-Governance implementation will be paramount in the coming decade. She is void of contribution in that arena. She is a neophyte and was not worthy of the $140,000/yr job. Harsh words from someone who voted for Stephen Harper, but i call 'em as i see them.

As opposed to the national campaign, ours was mostly civil. I am dismayed that our heritage of Erik Nielsen and Audrey McLaughlin did not lead to a discussion among the candidates of their Party's vision for the Yukon and elaboration of the "Northern Strategy". I guess that's why Larry had a twenty point lead. He was in a class of his own. What would Pam Boyde or Sue Greetham bring to the table at Committee Meetings in Ottawa? That is where the real parliamentarian work is done. Not the media-driven circus room of Question Period. Larry Bagnell is always present there. He is not the brightest star in the sky, but he participates. Next time u watch CPAC's coverage of those important Committee meetings, think to yourself, "would Pam or Sue be doing as good a job there?" Honestly. Partisan politics aside...

Jan 20th: Here's a glimpse of tonite's running poll of the Federal Yukon Riding. It seems that the announcement of the Income Trust RCMP investigation, the attack ads controversy and the Pat O'Brien led family values awareness project among the Ontario churches which cumulatively have turned around the Federal Liberal & Conservative campaigns is having little residual effect on the Yukon Landscape at this campaign winds down. The graph does not reflect growing strength by Pam & Sue in the final two days. The race may be closer than apparent but our survey is now complete.

The above was initially a rolling poll but the final January tally is based only on a small sample of calls from Jan 14-20th of 120 Decided Voters and 10% Undecided giving a Margin of Error of 9% ... 19 times in 20.

To our stalwart TrendLines supporters: for reference, this compares with our recent Copperbelt By-Election Margin of Error of 23%; so we are quite confident with the above graph. If i do get the order wrong however, i pledge to cut off my pony tail seen below!! My last one went to the Sick Kids Hospital for children undergoing chemotherapy (btw it was a hot summer ... i didn't lose it on a bet). If u see a little twerp running around with grey hair, now u know where it came from! Is there a hairdresser up here that has an alliance with that Hospital? Give me a call or email, just in case. This same offer will stand for September's Territorial Election.

Jan 17th: The local Conservative campaign may be coming off the rails. Chuck Hendrie of CHON-FM aired his First Nations summary segment this morning where he reported that Larry Bagnell has sat down and discussed relevant platform all but two of the 14 Yukon FN chiefs. Pam Boyde has visited half. But Sue Greetham has seen none. Zero. Zilch. With Phil Fontaine's less than enthusiastic alliance with the national Conservative Party over the Kelowna Agreement, the Tory's have worked fervently to resolve that issue. And Jim Prentice was able to attain an endorsement from the FN Congress on Saturday.

But Sue Greetham's apparent disdain for working with FN in the Yukon is an unacceptable behaviour and attitude for a Yukon MP. Though the Tories may have a different outlook in how to deal with Settlement and Self-Governance issues, they will only be able to implement them if the communication channels are open.

With Stephen Harper poised to form a Minority Gov't in several days, possibly a Majority, it would be opportune to have a sitting member on the governing side. But Erik Nielsen, Audrey McLaughlin and yes, even Larry Bagnell, have all set a high standard of Yukoners expectations for an MP ... even in Opposition. It is evident that the cheque pipeline is secondary to integrity and hard work.

At this late point in the campaign, I do not see the beginnings of someone ready to be groomed for office in the Conservative candidate, Sue Greetham. By her absence from the political arena since the last Election and indeed her late entry into the current campaign (three weeks), Voters have to question her motives, stamina and energy level. Being of right wing orientation myself, it is quite difficult for me to see this development. This will probably prevent me from ever joining that Party's Advisory Board, but in all good conscience, i cannot endorse a Candidate of the ilk of Sue Greetham for the position of MP.

That was easy to say. Part 2 is much more difficult 'cuz we are left with Larry and the Entitlement Party, Pam and the Socialist Party or Philippe and the TreeHugger Party. Oh brother, what a choice! Let's see who shines at Thursday's Candidate Debate in W~h.

The only light i see here has been said before. If we have a Conservative Majority Gov't next week, we must convince Larry Bagnell to cross the floor. He's the best of the four but with the wrong Party.

Jan 15th: More bad news for the Yukon Party. During January polling to see how Larry Bagnell was faring, we found that yet another YP Riding is poised to be lost in the 2006 General Territorial Election. And again, it's a Cabinet Minister. Lang, Kenyon, Edzerza & Hart have sucked in the polls since August. Polling in the other Ridings is ongoing and we will let u know who it is after our Federal Election project. If our survey brings no other lead changes to light, the loss of this Riding indicates the Lame Duck Administration will win only 4 Ridings this Autumn. Dennis, can u spell L-E-A-D-E-R-S-H-I-P R-E-V-I-E-W ??

Jan 13th: CPAC continues its intimate federal ridings coverage with a segment on the Yukon taped last week and broadcast this weekend:

Saturday, January 14 at 5PM PT
rebroadcast - Sunday, January 15 at 9AM PT

Jim Hart reports from the Yukon. This is a huge riding, encompassing the entire Yukon Territory. A winter election in the Yukon means the days are short, about 5 hours of daylight, and since the distances between locations are long, campaigning in this riding can be quite a challenge. The Liberal incumbent is Larry Bagnell. He was first elected to the riding in 2000. NDP Candidate Pam Boyde ran against Bagnell in the last election. She lost by 2508 votes, but she's ready for the rematch. Conservative Candidate Sue Greetham is a business woman from the Yukon. This is her first attempt at a federal election campaign, but she's hoping to make her mark on the territory. Join Jim as he follows these candidates in their race to win the riding of Yukon.

Jan 3rd: We are quite busy with our Federal Riding Projection. In the meantime, for the best local media, tune in to Chuck Hendrie at 98.1 CHON-FM. He's doing the best political interviews on the West Coast. His best segment, we've mentioned before, is Breakfast with the Premier (or whoever's around) Friday's at 7:45am.

Jan 2nd, 2006: If the Election were today, our Riding Projection indicates for the first time that Stephen Harper would form a Minority Gov't. This is in line with my prediction of Nov 30th that the Conservative Party will win with a very small Minority and is based on the momentum that i have noticed since Labour Day.

That being the case, Yukoners have much to ponder over the next 21 days. The cheque pipeline from Ottawa via Larry Bagnell may be at an end. There must be some forethought as to who of the two serious Yukon Candidates would be the best advocate for the Territory's case. Will it be Larry Bagnell in Opposition or could it be Pam Boyde in Opposition? Given only those choices, it is incumbent on voters to judge the sincerity and genuineness of their present quests. Which of the two knows the Yukon best? Who will work the hardest for our interests? Being that it is likely a Minority situation unfolding, the consequences are not overwhelming but we do want to send the right person.

At TrendLines, we have pleaded publicly for Larry to cross the floor. It did not happen and he likely very much regrets it now. He is a career politician and his working himself up the ladder to Privy Council speaks volumes as to his mettle. But rarely does he vote with his conscious and against Liberal Party whipping. Thus, he is but a B-Player. To me and many others, Pam is a dark horse. As i've mused before, where is she between Elections? Myself, i do not see her at public functions, seminars or expressing herself in the Media. When she come out of the woodwork, she is articulate. But also a B-Player. Philippe Leblond and Sue Greetham are lightweights and don't even register on the scale.

In short, our choices suck...

It's a choice the best of a bad bunch. Myself, i'd go with Larry and keep on his ass to cross-the-floor. Then he'd be a shoe-in for the 2007 Election.

Dec 20th: We are posting our new Federal Riding Projection by Noon every day. Click Politics link on the left or HomePg.

Dec 19th: I have complained here (Oct 14 & Dec 6) about lack of progress by the Gov't wrt electoral reform in the Territory. But blow me away, in the Leg' Thursday, Dennis Fentie rose before Question Period to announce that action is being contemplated. With less than 300 days left in his mandate, considering October is reserved for the Municipal/LAC Elections, Fentie will be pressed to show genuine "change" in the remaining weeks run down on him. Time and time again we see his Communications Team announcing sentiment rather than a plan of action. Here's the text from the Blues:

Hon. Mr. Fentie: I rise today to respond to Petition No. 11. We have given serious and thoughtful consideration to the petition tabled on behalf of Yukon citizens. We understand that there is a group of Yukon citizens interested in further discussion on the issue of electoral reform. Based on our discussions with Yukoners as well as inclusions in the report from the senior advisor on electoral reform, which was tabled in this House in February, we believe that Yukon people do place a high priority on good government and legislative renewal. In that regard, Mr. Speaker, the government will continue to work with citizens, pursue legislative renewal, as well as continuing its efforts to bring good government to Yukoners in accordance with their priorities. Thank you.

Inaction, scandal and a growing lack of trust of his Administration are haunting Fentie. His Gov't is seen as a Lame Duck Admin more each passing day. His announcements, like Paul Martin's, are seen as acts of desperation ... not concern for the well being and wishes of Yukoners. In a few short weeks, the Yukon Party will hold its AGM. It will not likely be a good turnout. But if they do bother to come, those members will not be happy campers. Fentie is not perceived as being the Leader for the times. His attitude sucks. Each Spring, the Party membership must re-endorse the Leader. In the present climate, Dennis Fentie may lose the vote that allows him to avoid a Leadership Review. Thrust such into a Leadership Campaign, when an Election must be held by September, is not a good omen. This is a distraction that he doesn't want, doesn't need and comes upon him with advice (mine) that he didn't heed.

As mused previously, Fentie can avoid the Leadership Review by going to the polls in the Spring. But speaking of polls, he also knows that TrendLines is presently projecting that the Yukon Party will likely only win 5 of 18 Ridings in a Spring Election. And there are other considerations. The recent Cabinet Shuffle was no doubt prompted to steal the thunder from Frank Turner's Declaration to run in Lake Laberge. Had the shuffle been done over the Holidays as we predicted, it would likely have included Dean Hassard and Ted Staffen. The decision to go early and w/o those gentlemen makes one wonder if those two have made clear to Fentie that while they were flattered with his offer, it may not be in the Party's best interest because they don't intend to run for re-election in 2006. Dean has a safe seat. There are only one or two other safe YP seats. If some YP Incumbents don't run 'cuz they don't want to be in Opposition or part of the Third Party, it becomes obvious that the Yukon Party may have only three MLA's after the next Election. This novel scenario is what some of us call "self-fulfilling". And some of us know when that process started.

Fentie's options are evaporating as quickly as the days are passing. He drops the writ in the Spring and gets clobbered. Or, he faces a revolt at the upcoming AGM. Russian roulette would be more fun! Poor guy...

Dec 17th: As the Federal Election approaches, we have seen some rejuvenation of the Conservative Party since mid September. Is the renewed chance of regime change in Ottawa affecting "Western Alienation"? The strong pockets of Separation Anxiety were the former Reform and PC strongholds. It seems that they want to give the Fed's one more shot before this movement takes off. Old Crow led the break-away crowd in late October with 42% willing, followed by the Southern Lakes at 39%:

Dec 16th: As we anxiously await the effect of the Vancouver Debates on the nitely rolling polls, i've updated the analysis that i did in August on this week's DataPath survey. Donna Larsen prefers that i not conduct this exercise but i feel the manipulation is quite insightful and makes her work more meaningful to the political analysis of the local scene. They have more data points in the past than i and that allows us to see the Liberal Leadership bump for example. And when did i ever avoid controversy, eh! Below is her raw data with "Independents" claiming as much as 21% of popular opinion:

Above, on the contrary, we've brought down the "Independents" to levels more in line with the 2002 Election (4%). And thus, we see a clearer picture of the trends in play, n'est pas? In their Press Release graph and commentary, DataPath implies (as we do) a steady increase in NDP fortunes. However, their data illustrates that the NDP actually peaked in August and that the NDP is losing support to the Liberal Party. We end in the same place, but by different "Paths". On the reconciliation basis, DataPath's numbers were 9% in conflict with ours in August. However if we compare their reconstructed December data with ours from five weeks earlier, the greatest diff is now only 5% (and even less if our data is extrapolated to December). Here again is my October update for comparison:

Dec 14th: Well, it seems that Larry Bagnell has passed on Evalina's plea for him to Cross the Floor. Monday was the deadline for local Tory nominations. Sue Greetham, the moving force of the Southern Lakes Marketing Co-op (tourism enterprises) has advised us that she has been acclaimed as the Conservative candidate. With four named Candidates in place, TrendLines will update local polling following the Leader's Debates taking place in Vancouver this week.

Dec 13th: W~h resident Rick Tone has been in touch with TrendLines over the past few days but has advised us that he has decided to concede his quest for Yukon MP to the two Conservative women in the contested nomination. One is a Yukon business woman and the other a former MLA. And then there were two...

The MLA's name seems to have been put forward by a trickster. And then there was one...

Dec 12th: TrendLines agreed over the weekend to add Frank Turner to the Lake Laberge "question" as he tests the waters in his now declared bid to seek the NDP nomination for Lake Laberge Electoral District. And swiftly, Dennis Fentie has just announced that this Riding's Incumbent MLA, Brad Cathers, has been sworn in this morning as replacement Minister of Health and Social Services. He will also be responsible for the WCB. Elaine Taylor becomes Deputy Premier and Fentie will take on Dept of the Environment duties.

With three candidates having approached the Party, local Conservatives have announced a Nomination Mtg for Saturday (in conjunction with their previously scheduled AGM). Not having knowledge of each others' similar intentions, talks over the weekend continue on whether to have a contest or come to some consensus on who has the best chance with the tardy start to the campaign, perhaps resulting in only one of the three Declaring their bid this week.

National Scene: While the daily announcements by Stephen Harper of planks in the Tory platform seem to do nothing, and a Decima/Carleton Journalism poll suggests that his ads are actually driving folks to vote Liberal, it seems that the hand gun announcement by Paul Martin is the first wedge issue that is polarizing voters. It is causing concern and anger in SW Ontario and the West and we are seeing up to ten percent in poll movement from Liberal to Conservative over the fear of rifles being the next target of confiscation. This should lead to the first momentum turn of our Riding Projections and continue the rising tide of support for the Conservatives that began after Labour Day and is the basis thus far for our CPC target win on Election Day. An early Strategic Counsel survey has revealed that 55% of the Undecided will not vote Conservative 'cuz they are not familiar with that Party's policies and current platform. OTOH, 67% will not vote Liberal due to ethics concerns. It is clear that during the course of the campaign it will be easier for Harper to explain intended legislation during his mandate than it will be for Martin to rid himself of association with Liberal Party corruption charges, admissions and (Gomery) findings. Barring new developments and performances at the Debates, this indicates a slow rise in support for the Conservatives as they reveal their stance.

Dec 9th: Much thanx to CHON-FM & CBC-North for this week's segments on our October Politics Update & The Globe and Mail for publishing a link to our Federal Riding Projection in their Election coverage!

Dec 8th: After 10 days, we finally heard the first plank in the new Liberal platform today. Unfortunately, it just lost them the Federal Election. This issue may gain them a dozen seats in Toronto, Vancouver & Montreal. But the Liberals will lose up to three dozen of their rural Ridings where polarization will become crystal clear by the end of the week. Confiscating guns from all those that registered them over the last ten years stops almost no murders but in turn leaves all the illegal guns in the hands of criminals. The good guys are punished. The bad ones are laffing their asses off.

Democracies do not ban guns. Fascist regimes ban guns. Did banning drugs cut-off drug supply? Why would this stupid theory work for gun violence? Fascist forces within Canada's bureaucracy have strived for this day for two decades; and it has Jean Chrétien's fingerprints all over it. We are witnessing regime change in our own country. From democracy to fascism. The poor souls that registered their guns were told that it would never lead to confiscation. But the Gov't wants to start that process Jan 24th. And while today marks the arrival of FASCISM in Canada, the Liberal Party has not read the tea leaves well. Earlier today we raised our Election Day target for the Conservatives to 118 MP's. Larry Bagnell just lost The Yukon riding...

At TrendLines, we have been impressed with Larry's loyal following in our surveys and thus have always spoke well of him. His popularity exceeds that of his Party by far. But, imho, it is time for that fine gentleman to take a stand for Yukoners. Larry: wake up and smell the coffee. Your Party has deserted u. The Liberal Party is toast. Fortunately, the Conservative Party needs a Yukon candidate. The Nomination Meeting will likely be Dec 17th. Nobody has declared. Larry: phone their Riding prez, Tony Fekete (867.668.2877) and put your name forward. Don't wait for my next poll to confirm the inevitable. Fly to Ottawa tomorrow. Put your affairs in order. Cross the floor. Or lose your job...

The Yukon is one of those ridings that needs Federal money. And lots of it. It is one of those free loading Ridings (like many in Quebec) that knows where its bread is buttered and will pledge its support to the Party in Gov't to maximize its cheques from Ottawa. Regardless of the present polls, i am of the opinion that Yukoners will watch the Federal scene intensely after today. If it becomes evident that a Conservative Minority is in the cards, watch for sentiment to change to a Conservative Yukon. Everyone likes Larry. But they like the cheques he brings back more. In Privy Council, he performs that task well. In Opposition, he will suck at it. Yukoners have shown in Territorial politics that their loyalty to Parties is only an inch deep. They are astute and demand results. If Stephen Harper appears to be on his way to become PM, Yukoners will vote for whoever is the new Conservative Candidate. Sorry, Larry. This week will be one of the hardest decisions in your life. Stay - and align yourself with the corrupt FASCISTS. Or represent Yukoners. I know u will make the right decision...

Dec 6th: It is unfortunate that our focus is on the Canadian Election presently. Our Federal Riding Projection continues to help us set new daily records in the Hits dept. But stay tuned folks. As u may have noticed in our TimeLine above, we are forecasting a Cabinet Shuffle after the Holidays. With the Yukon General Election now relegated to the expiry date of Fentie's mandate; with the Leg' in complete dysfunction while Ken McKinnon's $124,000 recommendation and plea for collaboration in the circus room gathers dust; with only shallow public enthusiasm for the prospect of an NDP-led Minority Gov't in the Autumn; with YP membership up-in-arms over the certain defeat of their Party; with rising intolerance by MLA's of bullying tactics by Dennis Fentie in Caucus; with the Govt's Lame Duck status thwarting all its efforts ... Spring will certainly bring us five other exciting developments:

(3) In a tit-for-tat retaliation for Fentie's implicit endorsement of Larry Bagnell in two Elections, local Conservatives will endorse the Liberal Party in the upcoming Territorial Election.

(5) In classic self-fulfilling fashion, disillusion and frustration will lead to the decision by of one or more YP MLA's to announce their not seeking Re-Election rather than look forward to sitting as the Third Party in 2007.

My alerts to the YP MLA's, Directors and Advisors commenced in April 2005. The majority believed me. Fentie, Nielsen & Steele did not. Unfortunately, the latter are mere political neophytes and with the infamous YP Communications Team at the helm, continued a course of repetitive blunders and groundings. My caveats surrounding ignoring Copperbelt as a bellwether went unheeded. My projections were mocked. Now they eat crow. The media has found that YP MLA's are muzzled. The Gov't is afraid to take action on social issues in fear of alienating core support. Yet fulfilling promises to long time friends will consolidate the old boys club image. It will be truly interesting to view the extent of the change of the political landscape after the next YP AGM.

There are difficult decisions ahead for many of us that must choose between rebuilding the Party of the Right after Fentie's ego tripping has consumed that entity, or, whether it is more sound in the long run to rally around the Liberal flagship and take a path that leads to an eventual two-Party realm in the Yukon. Many times i have related that our community does not have the critical mass to support a viable three-Party Legislature. And while my sentiment lies with a non-partisan system similar to W~h municipal politics, the prospect of a Liberal/NDP future bodes well for the interests of Yukoners cynical of the status quo.

During lulls in the Federal Campaign and thereafter, i will look at hints of coming events via the insights revealed in our October Yukon Politics Update and assist in connecting the dots...

Dec 5th: This evening on CBC-North, we were reminded how a deficiency of Leadership affects policy. The first segment discussed proposed tobacco restrictions whereby repeat-offence merchants that sell to minors could face up to $150,000 in fines. Meanwhile, the following feature showed "free crack kits" being distributed in Yukon's largest drug zone, downtown W~h. Vive le difference, eh.

Their Premier, Joe Handley, is somewhat burdened by vigilantes that chase dealers out of their communities. His bio at the NWT website is as follows:

OTOH, our Fentie is an ex-con that was sentenced to four years in penitentiary for his part in a heroin trafficking ring in Edmonton. Vive la difference, eh.

Last week, Stephen Harper made a campaign promise that convicted drug dealers during his mandate shall receive a mandatory two year minimum sentence. Yukon judges will no longer be able to hand out conditional sentences and house arrest with some community service. With this development, i fear that Fentie will shortly announce his endorsement of Larry Bagnell and if the Conservatives are elected, it is likely Dennis will invoke the notwithstanding clause to protect our dealers. After all, what good would all those YP Gov't "safe kits" be if there was no product, eh? In the Yukon, we protect our own. Does it matter that they're killing our kids? Our Premier didn't care when he was in Alberta. And he doesn't seem to care now...

Yukoners can help our downward trek by breaking out of the conspiracy of silence. We are a jurisdiction of small communities. We know everyone's vehicle and where they reside. We know all the players behind the illicit activities. Whether it's drugs, break-ins or illegal gambling, it matters not that the perpetrators may find their apprehension embarrassing. Or, if u feel one's job performance (of lack thereof) suffers 'cuz of substance abuse or gambling ... TURN THEM IN. BE a Whistle Blower. And if u feel the cops are not doing their job due to the notoriety of the individual ... just call TimQ at The Yukon News.

The NDP have announced that unchallenged Pam Boyde will carry the NDP flag. Bagnell bid for acclamation thwarted.

Dec 2nd: All our newest graphs in one place! October Yukon Politics Update now on-line. As well as this Federal Riding status, we have all 18 local Riding update graphs and much more...

Dec 1st: Pam Boyde has declared her candidacy to run for the Yukon NDP once again. Where does this lady hang out between Election calls? Decision Sunday. The Conservative Party has a previously scheduled AGM on Dec 17th but could call a quickie Nomination Mtg with five days Notice for opportunists wishing to jump on Harper's GST bandwagon. This is just so lame. Green Party officials meet Wednesday to discuss their options. The National executive of the Christian Heritage Party can appoint a local candidate "if" someone unbeknownst steps forward. The failure of any of the Parties to mount heavyweight contenders against Larry speaks volumes! It's not like this Election came as a surprise.

Below is our first Riding Projection based on polling since the writ was dropped. Dramatic change, again mirroring the 2004 Conservative momentum in the early stages. First debate in 14 days. Each day at Noon, we will include our current Election Day target based on the latest and overall trends:

Nov 30th: Larry Bagnell starts the campaign with no opponents. The NDP will Nominate their candidate on Sunday, but the local Conservative executive is indicating that they may wait 'til their scheduled AGM on Dec 17th. Of course this assumes that they can find somebody. This person has a dilemma. Does he/she go to the proverbial slaughter against a formidable Bagnell. Or, will that person get swept up in this week's apparent national "winds of change". On that note, it is no secret that my name is being put forward... and i am extremely flattered. I am likewise sure the YP would luv to see me sent a few thousand miles east for the next year! Folks, I appreciate the encouragement to take on this task but thus far we luv the move to the Yukon and it is not in my present agenda to instead live in Ottawa albeit weekend return trips are allowed. It is a prospect that we have previously considered ... and i resolved that if i ever enter the political realm, i'd like to do it in the Territorial arena. To that end, i often work behind the scenes for political Parties on their advisory Board of Directors (but some have a low tolerance of my style of constructive criticism). I truly enjoy many Federal issues and feel i could do the job well. But i have also stated publicly that i feel Larry has been a stalwart proponent for Yukoners and represents us well. It's just he's with a bunch of scoundrels. And that bothers many here in the Yukon according to our surveys. These difficult decisions would be solved if he would just "cross the floor" as Evalina had suggested to him recently. His response was that being in Privy Council affords him lotsa opportunity that he would not get in Opposition. Perhaps a Stephen Harper win will change his mind on that prospect? Would u support his change of loyalty? We should do a poll !

Like the beginning of the 2004 campaign, things are going sweet for Stephen Harper. The new polls are very bright. But what was he thinking when he announced a free vote wrt Same Sex Marriage yesterday? Oh brother! What was on his mind? I hope that he has internal polling showing that this position gains more for him than the pile of swing vote that he just alienated...

As i just mentioned, the new polls are astounding and subject to the fallout of the SSM issue, today TrendLines is projecting a Conservative Minority of 117 MP's.

Nov 29th: Subsequent to the Liberal Gov't defeat by non-confidence of Parliament, the Federal Election has set for Jan 23rd. Each morning, we will update the above TrendLines Federal Riding Projection based on the previous days' polls and will re-predict the winning Party's number of MP's projected out to Election Day. As of today, we start with the Liberals winning with a Minority of 127 MP's.

BTW, the mood seems to be changing in Ontario. This is today's Toronto Sun Editorial:

Nov 28th: Call it self-fulfilling or clairvoyance, but our world is unfolding as it should...

Above in our TimeLine, we have relegated the General Election to the end of the YP mandate. Last week i declared Fentie's Administration "lame duck". As self-fulfilling situations present themselves, it will become clear that the YP Gov't shall have to do what others in their predicament have done: pass all the legislation and regulations that it can in the time remaining & capitalize on a few more big paycheques. Oct 23 2006 is an opportune end point and leaves time for the inevitable last minute "hail mary" throw. Below, the effect on our Riding Projection of today's "u can't fire me ... i quit!" episode at the Leg' as former Cabinet Minister and Deputy Premier Peter Jenkins crossed the floor to sit as an Independent MLA. Because in our polling his support seems to be stronger than the YP, we predict his win as an Indep't should he seek re-election. And, looking at the bright side, Yukoners can consider the savings on his salary as partial payments towards the loan default. In one year, that would just about clear the slate, non?

I have said in the past that the YP Gov't is not haemorrhaging critically due to one issue. I called it death by a thousand nicks. The absence of Jenkins will help the Party in the polls, but as is clear when u scan my 18 Riding Projections, they are not losing their seats to the NDP by five, ten or fifteen percent. They are getting slaughtered. Sorry, today's action alone won't help...

Nov 24: As we await the running out of the current YP mandate, i have intimated that i have fears of bad legislation and last minute announcements due to the Premier and his Cabinet's being beholden to certain special interest groups ... particularly the Casino fraternity... and the illicit money, drugs and alcohol that will accompany that direction. TrendLines huge daily audience includes Joe Yukoner, who has some degree of fame in on-line circles. A recent Question Period exchange between Gary McRobb, the Speaker & Archie Lang, motivated him to design this graphic representing his similar unease around the mining proponents:

His concern was similarly echoed by The Yukon News, as this week they openly questioned the relationship of Dennis Fentie's Leadership Campaign Mgr, Donna Mercier, with regards to her suddenly speaking on behalf of mining stakeholders in a Press Release. Is this a Gov't governing or one that finds itself in an unfortunate era of "payback time"? And how many markers are out there? The plot thickens...

As we await the Federal Gov't defeat by confidence motion (watch on CPAC) today, with final vote on Monday, i have some astonishing numbers discovered in our internal By-Election post mortem. It troubled me somewhat that our graph illustrated a strong Yukon Party resurgence in early November and subsequently its exhaustion by voting day. It begs the question, "Was that anomaly real?"

It is with certain glee today, that i can say absolutely "yes". Because in the 2004 Federal Election there was a last minute Liberal resurgence that was not picked up by the last allowable published polls, several political analysts have started using a technique whereby we verify our projection integrity by comparing our campaign period data with the later public releases of the Advance Poll results. Using this same methodology, we can now see pre-voting day constituent sentiment by looking at ElectionsYukon data:

Nov 23: The W~h Star captured the essence of the dysfunction at the Leg' with this wrap-up of their By-Election coverage:

Yukon Party candidate Cynthia Kearns had the weakest showing Monday, taking in only 19.5 per cent of the vote and 181 ballots. “There was a message sent from Copperbelt riding,” Kearns said from her party’s base in the lounge at the Airline Inn. However, she said she’s not exactly sure what the message is from Mitchell’s victory. Kearns’ event was attended by several of the Yukon Party’s cabinet ministers and MLAs. But many of them declined to comment on the results, and Kearns was closely guarded by the party’s media relations person, Peter Carr.

There is but a sliver of opportunity for the YP to realign their strategies and salvage the quest for a second mandate. But one can't seek help 'til they admit to themselves that there is indeed a problem. Enuf said?!!

(Nov 22nd) ... The Day After: To Dennis Fentie: Can u spell "L-A-M-E D-U-C-K"?

He sent the big guns into Copperbelt and they prematurely ejaculated. They wallpapered the Territory with ads ... and folks replied "no thanx". The honeymoon is over. The people have spoken.

With the Premier, his Cabinet & the YP dismissed, Yukoners will spend the coming months deciding who shall govern in its stead. There is another message from last nite. Stephens was a credible candidate and her election would have moved the NDP closer to Gov't status. As a bellwether, the Copperbelt electorate is showing that they are uncomfortable with the prospect of a Todd Hardy led NDP Gov't and wish to see what kind of team Art Mitchell can put together as the Liberal Leader. Deja vu? The Yukon Party was nowhere six months before the 2002 Election. In purging the Liberal Party at that time, the voters saw the YP as a gov't-in-waiting. Plainly, the tables are turned. This scenario was all very predictable and shortly we will see the next self-fulfilling ingredient. YP Incumbents will come forward one-by-one and announce their decisions not to run in 2006. There will be a myriad of reasons but there is truly only one ... they don't want to sit in Opposition.

As i look forward, it is becoming clear that an NDP/Liberal Minority coalition may be what the doctor ordered. They have somewhat shown recently that they can work together in the Leg'. They seem to speak for the people. A bit too socialist and left for me ... but certainly more approachable than the regime in place.

This Winter will be a time of watchful waiting. Who will be the cream that rises to the occasion? The number of Yukoners that see the YP having enuf time to turn the Titanic is fleeting. And each week that passes will make their eventual epiphany moment and actions look that much more desperate.

Another thing is sure. While my predictions of Dennis Fentie moving up his agenda for a General Election from Autumn 2006 to this coming Spring (to avoid a Leadership Review) came thru this week, it was based on a premise that Dennis Fentie thinks he can win that Election. But ... thanx to the upcoming TrendLines Monthly Political Updates, it will become crystal clear to him with time that this contemplated Election is futile.

And like most other Lame Duck Govt's, he will maximize his mandate and stretch out its term to Nov 2006 to avoid the inevitable, maximize pay cheques and implement rushed legislation that would be impossible in the coming regime change. Casino promoters et al holders of markers will make their presence felt in the Premier's Office during the countdown. This is Day 365. Tomorrow is Day 364...

Nov 21st: It's mild but it's very icy. The final voters list tally was 1589. Were voters swayed by media reporting of the All-Candidates Debate? How are voters reacting to aggressive last minute radio ads and newspaper ads by the Yukon Party? Which Party's volunteer base was most effective in getting out their supporters today? Our final poll was on Wednesday and our results are a snapshot of sentiment on Nov16th but as an indication of how close we are to the final numbers depends on answers to these questions. We've enjoyed doing this (since 1989) and understand that being vulnerable to swings in the last days is an occupational hazard, but Evalina and i did our best...

We have received inquiries today wrt our methodology. Since July, this has been a rolling (avg) poll where we continually add new results to the database and delete some of the older calls. As we went along, we also shortened the time lapse. The August & Sept tallies include calls that are over as much as a 60-day period, whereas by Nov 14th, the calls were down to only a six-day period. Now comes the difficult part. About seven days ago, we could see the Yukon Party going down the toilet, causing a meteoric rise of support for the Liberals. We had to decide in our final graph whether to continue with the averaging or go with a smaller sample of the Last Day (Nov16th) only that seemed to be more reflective of the reality albeit a higher Margin of Error.

Evalina's choice , the average of polling from Nov 9-16 gave this result: Mitchell - 49%, Stephens - 32%, Kearns - 19%. If we avg'd Nov 14-16, the result was a harsher: Mitchell - 57%, Stephens - 28%, Kearns - 15%. In the end, we dumped all but the final day's calls and went with the results below shown for Nov 16th. In essence, moderation of the final vote for the reasons given earlier could show the Liberals securing 49-58%, the NDP 28-32% and the Yukon Party at 11-19%. OTOH, the trend we discovered may have continued over the last five days giving Art a larger lead and putting Cynthia at 10% or less. Such are the dilemmas faced by pollsters. In summary, please remember that our last figure should be a fair reflection of where things stood last Wednesday ... not a By-Election forecast. ElectionsCanada and Press Councils frown on the publishing of polling done within 72-hrs of Election Day. There, clear as mud now?!!

As the ElectionsYukon unofficial results come in, we will add them to the graph. If u see all at 33%, then we haven't got them yet. It will be after 8:30pm. Feel free to send us your post mortem comments.

For interest, here is the "shoulda" graph that Evalina wanted us to go with, mentioned above avg'ing Nov 9-16. She is awesome, eh!!

Thanx for visiting. Enjoy the rest of our site ... including this weekend's September Political Update that compiles all of our recent polling in the Yukon. Whether i come out of this looking like an Eagle or a Schmuck, the countdown is on for a likely Spring Yukon General Election and we will be the barometer 'til that day. And private polling for those candidates wanting to test the waters is available @ $360/Riding (maybe more for anyone from the Yukon Party). We welcome inquiries from any media outlet(s) wishing Exclusive or Priority publishing rights. Ok, commercial over! Evalina and i have been overwhelmed by the heartfelt emails, calls and visits from y'all since this started in late July. It's been a great ride. It is almost certain that this site will be expanded next month to a more interactive portal for Yukoners with lotsa good stuff...

Nov 17th: Next Opposition Days in Ottawa are Nov 22nd & 24th ... and potential non-confidence defeat of Federal Gov't. There are 3 more by Dec 10th; and 7 betw Jan 30 & March 24th. The NDP "compromise" motion provides for the PM moving up his pledge for an Election from April 10th (at the latest) to Feb 13th 2006. By Opposition agreement, the Gov't is poised to fall on Nov 28th.

Subject to each Party's performance at the All-Candidates Debate tonite, Art Mitchell is poised for an easy win of The Yukon's Copperbelt By-Election on Monday. Maureen seems mired and Wednesday nite we fielded hostile comments wrt Cynthia & YP:

Nov 11th: Today marks the first anniversary of my venture to Canada's North. I should be celebrating with champagne with the one i luv (or my wife) but instead i find myself about to rant. What's in the water up here? Let me explain. A few days ago, Evalina and i were in the checkout line at Superstore and who's in the next aisle? Pat Duncan. She's very accommodating and chatted with us about that miserable first day at the Leg' and on the way back to Judas Creek i got to thinkin' ... geez, she and Ted Staffen are about the only ones i talk nice about here at the blog. If it was almost any other MLA, i probably woulda got clobbered on the back of the head with a brick of cheese or a hunk of polish sausage 'cuz of my early attack mode.

This prompted me to write a letter to all the MLA's and the Premier in an offering of conciliation and express my thots. I told them that in thirty years of political activism, i've never seen such a dysfunctional legislature system as this one in the Yukon. I further stated that we should all be much more civil, this being a small place and all. And especially the Gov't side should be more collaborative with the Opposition or they will find that the public will rebel (again) and the Yukon Party will be put in its place. I firmly believe that partisan Party politics does not work in small jurisdictions and the lack of critical mass requires stakeholders to work together for the public good and should not maintain this silly adversarial system. It clearly doesn't work and the practice of booting out successive governing Parties is doomed to repeat itself.

Well, i bit my tongue and did my part and was nice for far too many days. I'm in withdrawal. Hits on my website are dropping at this venue while our Federal Politics side and Peak Oil link are attaining record highs. I'm proud to say we've had visitors from 74 nations since Labour Day! But i digress.

In my absence, the street kid from Edmonton came back. Fentie has pissed off several First Nations bands. Sucker punched John Edzerza. And we have a boarding penalty for body checking David Sloan from behind. What the hell is going on? Nobody is speaking on the Gov't side. The Word is that Fentie has turned Gestapo on them and laid down the law. None of the marshmallows talks or writes anything w/o his ok from now 'til the General Election. "He's in charge."

He clearly doesn't like my idea of the three Parties working together. Worse, he sees enemies within. He's seen the polls. Everyone has seen the polls. Danny Lang likely can't fund raise. Investors and businessmen want to wait 'til after the General Election before announcing new plans and expansions... just in case. And when Dennis looks at his front bench he sees idiots instead of cabinet minister material. Not to pick on Edzerza, but his placing fourth in our most worthy Yukon Space Cadet poll probably didn't help. Fentie now looks at him and sees what we all see. As mentioned, i've been here a year and in that time haven't seen the guy give a real substance based speech or report... in the Leg' or out. I look at him and say "oh my gawd, another Indian that got pushed thru high school". When he reads he seems barely literate ... and they made him Education Minister! But it gets worse. Recently, with November being spouse abuse awareness month or something, we heard him get up and say all Canadians could learn from First Nations culture wherein the mother of each family is the most respected for she nurtures and takes care of the young. Hello? "John, i thot u were Justice Minister. Don't u read your own stats? Aboriginal men in the Yukon beat up their wives more here more than in any jurisdiction in Canada. And half their kids are drinking, smokin' or on drugs at supper time instead of being at home and doing their home work. And then there's the unspeakable ravage on their daughters & nieces." It may be a great model, John, but get the locals to walk the talk before u showcase it. Aboriginals boast being tops as both victims and the criminals. It's a disgrace and disgusting.

Don't get me wrong folks. This is not about First Nations. We just have to listen to speeches by Ed Schultz or Andy Carvill to know that there are intelligent representatives out there. It's just this one is a dud. Jesus H. Christ, he makes Lorraine look good ... need i say more? Obviously, Dennis has seen the light and seems to want to discredit him before a pre-Election cabinet shuffle. My guess of the reasoning is that he believes this tactic will keep the other FN bands that are not angry with him off his back when the nasty deed (dump) occurs. I assume Edzerza embarrasses them as well. On the surface, it seems Edzerza must go. What bothers me is that again we see Fentie's persona coming out. Manipulative. Conspiring. Power at all costs. He cares for no-one but Dennis Fentie. He has set up Edzerza for a fall in truly undignified fashion in order to minimize the FN aftershocks.

All this sets the background for what we witnessed in the last few days. Prompted by Duncan's classic sting strategy, the famed Education Minister stood up in the Leg' and swore that it'll be a cold day in hell before another school is built. The decision is based on due diligence. For anyone that has looked at the Yukon demographics, it is clear that the cohort situation is not good and we will have many half-empty classrooms after the present bulge goes thru the system. It's already showing up at the junior elementary levels. Wise planning says that u don't expand arbitrarily when other schools will have gross vacancies. A rationalization is coming. And before he was so rudely interrupted, i'm sure Dave Sloan was going to set out the Education Dept's territory-wide concerns and strategy. But Dennis body slammed them both and had his smoke buddy, Cynthia, and stand-in Elaine make the impromptu announcement that a school is on the way. Oh, is there a by-election on?!!

Fentie is desperate to win it. He knows. He knows like we do that if Maureen takes Copperbelt, the momentum of a minority NDP gov't is only months away. He knows that if the public turns chicken on Todd Hardy (after all he won the said Space Cadet poll) and Art Mitchell does a bang up job in the Leg' and recruits some A-team candidates, a Liberal minority gov't is in the cards. Yes, Dennis and the Yukon Party are running scared. You can see the fear in their eyes and body language ... and silence. Their core support is so shattered, they are afraid to do anything that will offend what few hanger-on'ers that they have left.

DataPath surveys have shown that Yukoners are no longer as concerned about the Economy since we achieved 4-5% Unemployment Rates. Many are working now and all have friends and neighbours that have recently got jobs unexpectedly. And the YP gets much credit for that. But like the environment at the Federal scene (to the chagrin of the Conservative Party), public focus has turned to "social issues". Crime, drugs, quality of life, green, etc. And Dennis knows the Yukon Party is perceived to falter at all of these ... due to their record. He really needs Copperbelt back.

And thus we have it. An upcoming (Spring) General Election with the Yukon Party vs the NDP and the battleground is "social issues". Can he sell it? Is he believable? Dennis Fentie sucked at his first job in sales on the streets of downtown Edmonton. The justice system gave him four years. If he fails in selling this one, he "loses" four years. Ironic, isn't it?

Nov 9th: With today's update of our Federal Riding Projection, political analyst, Gregory Morrow of UCLA, has an interesting theory. As he watches recent Canadian polls he firmly believes that strategic voting is being done by NDP supporters i.e. they see Conservative strength reach the threshold where they are poised for governance, NDP supporters turn on fringe or losing NDP candidates and shift their support to the local Liberal candidate. This confirms my belief that it is wiser for the Jack Layton and the NDP to leverage their "balance of power" position than strive form several more seats. Thus, as we see in the Projection graph above, there seems to be linkage between the NDP seats and the Conservative seats.

And back at the old Leg' in W~h, I thoroughly enjoyed Tim Querengesser's "it's the smell of fear" in the Yukon News: a summation of the atmosphere on the other side. We'll just tuck this one under the "self-fulfilling" category and leave it at that!

Nov 7th: We're baaaack. NWTel has finally corrected our phone line glitch and we're getting awesome speeds on our broadband connection. Today i have again updated our Federal Riding Projection. The Conservatives, Bloc & NDP all have a chance to increase their Riding status according to post-Gomery Report polls. Next Tuesday's Opposition Day gives them the opportunity to defeat the Minority Liberal Gov't by non-confidence. OTOH, the NDP would not likely have as much balance of power leverage with a Harper led Gov't. Layton must choose between the prestige of "influence" that he has presently vs the perception and stench of supporting a corrupt regime. With this very real possibility of Gov't defeat, we have brought our Federal general election date forecast forward to Jan 9th 2006.

In the Yukon, it is no secret that a left oriented media and lack of pro-active promotion of the Gov't accomplishments by his own staff have left Premier Fentie with an image that frankly sucks big time. Thus, Pat Duncan and Todd Hardy have ample co-operation to easily paste him and his Party as a "do-nothing Administration" this Session and for the most part it is actually categorically unfair. Question Period at the Leg' lasts only 60 days per annum and often the adversary format does not allow the Gov't a soapbox that is well suited to announcements or clarification of policy. A partial resolution for the Yukon Party is a new venue called "Breakfast With the Premier" broadcast at 7:30am Friday mornings on CHON-FM. Its Q&A nature allows some accountability and challenge for any attempts of on-air puffing by Mr Fentie, whose oratorical skills and time limits allow him to skate around the Opposition with ease. But not at 98.1's first segment where there is no Speaker as an ally. This could develop into a good informative show and may serve the purpose of both the Premier and CHON. Get up early and give a listen...

Nov 1st: Moving Day at Judas Creek Marina. Ahh, i just luv doing this on a snowy day! Note above our new Election Forecast dates... April 10th Federally & May 15th in The Yukon.

Oct 31st: Our TrendLines Leg' Projection has been updated to reflect the resurgence of Patrick Rouble in Southern Lakes! As we have been projecting a Liberal win of the Copperbelt By-Election since late August, no change is shown above for Nov 21st. Results incorporate all YTG surveys 'til Sept 30 2005. And now see it as a map presentation! We are still tabulating the Federal Yukon Riding results and Secession results and will compile all into a composite Press Release after our move tomorrow. The is based on 458 calls from July 25-Oct 30, contains an Undecided factor of 7% and has a Margin of Error of 20%. No October calls are incl in this release except for Copperbelt. A full October data Release will available shortly after the By-Election.

Oct 30th: Update graphs of the 17 other Ridings are below the Blog in the "September Update" section.

This poll is parsed from a Yukon wide rolling survey of about 475 voters. The Copperbelt component includes calls from Sept 28-Oct29. The Undecided factor is 10% and the Margin of Error is 23%. The 17 other ridings are a rolling average poll method (of about 60-days) and includes data from July, August and late Sept and have an Undecided factor avg of 8% and Margin of Error of 20%. Late July data has been purged from all Ridings at this point except Klondike, Kluane, Lake Laberge, McIntyre-Takhini & W~h West. And we introduce Sue Edelman as unofficial Liberal candidate in Riverdale South.

Evalina and i appreciate all the goodwill msg's, rumours, encouragement and historic background from folks all over. Our sincere thanx for today's contribution from Matt of Minto (Palmerston) Ontario. It is an incredible graphic map representation of our recent poll results.

Oct 27th: Everyone that knows us or has visited the Time link knows that Evalina & i really luv water. Well we just found a lakefront cabin that is immediately available and will thus be "in transition" these next few days...

Not a good time to be off-line 'cuz an interesting turn of events seems to be in progress. Weekend rumour has it that the combination of last week's Yukon News article on illegal gambling (blog readers know we broke that story) and TrendLines polling showing a second mandate is in serious jeopardy is forcing YP insiders to pressure the Premier to come thru with a long standing promise. One that was to be included in new legislation after the 2006 General Election, but some see it as "now or never". Watch for the word C-A-S-I-N-O-(s) when the Leg' opens or soon thereafter. An "enlightened" P3 partnership will be proposed between First Nations and key Yukon Party supporters. It is an unholy marriage that works for both groups and one that Fentie will be seen as nurturing.

One camp in the YP believes the future prospects are intact and the strategy for holding onto power in the Election is working fine. Others, those who read TrendLines polls, question whether a second mandate and defeat are imminent. Both include past and present key officials that see participation in casino development and operation as part of their retirement nest egg. The latter now worry that this venture would slip thru their fingers should an NDP Gov't take their place. If true, this alliance further explains the promotion, funding and tolerance of Dennis Fentie as YP Leader. These unsavoury characters are cut from the same cloth. And desperation by First Nations to improve their incomes and lifestyle may allow this agenda to be facilitated.

The Yukon News reporter didn't know who "Bob" was. Be assured that everyone in the Yukon Party knows "Bob" and all his friends. In time, it will be easy to connect the dots with respect to the economic rebound via rail/pipeline activities, management/construction of one or more casinos and the Yukon's uninhibited drug trade. It's all about vast amounts of new money coming into the Territory and distasteful ways to profit from it.

Recently in this blog, i urged the Premier to introduce drug screening among his advisors and the YP Board. Based on further revelations, i challenge him to expand that investigation and assure Yukoners that any of his advisors and/or YP Board Members active in illegal gambling will also be purged from Cabinet Office employment and the Board of the Directors. Folks, this is all just speculation at this stage and based on alotta internal YP panic and nervousness about their future. If it appears that a 2006 re-election is in doubt, i foresee this project coming to the forefront and the word C-A-S-I-N-O will increasingly be in our Yukon vocabulary. Let's see what unfolds...

Oct 25th: Being from Kitchener-Waterloo, it tore at my heart to miss the Oktoberfest theme and all the beer at the Fed Liberal AGM Saturday nite. Evalina and i were fortunate to have a good chat about the local scene with MP Larry Bagnell prior to his dashing off to that event from Carcross. I owe him a public apology for the jab in our August release where we teased him for not having the word "Liberal" or the Liberal Logo in his last constituency newsletter. Apparently not allowed to be a political vehicle. Sorry, Larry! And, we'd like to give congrat's to Sue Edelman, the new Federal Liberal Party Prez for the Yukon. Larry giggled and told me there's no vacancies (even before the Meeting), but i wonder if she's recruiting Directors?!!

Sunday, we met Peter Lesniak at the Science Institute AGM where he joins us a new Director and tells us he's very excited about his new position in assisting the NDP Caucus for the Fall Session at the Leg'. Look for "a positive tone" was his message.

Oct 24th: It was indeed a pleasure to attend the Carcross/Tagish First Nations signing ceremony of the Land Claims & Self-Government Agreements on Saturday. It was a very long but superb day to meet people, see some of my former students and enjoy the wild rabbit and other great foods.

Oct 21st: I would like to think that my being expelled from the Yukon Party Board of Directors five hours after the release of our uncomplimentary poll showing that six YP MLA's would be defeated in an Election was merely coincidence... not part of a pattern.

Everybody wants to know the details of the Yukon Party's protocol that they used to dump me. Well i rec'd two letters. One from Prez Darrell Peters that refers to Article III, 2 (h). Nobody i know in the Yukon has a copy of the constitution but it likely has something to do with calling your Premier a "pothead" on the Front Page of the paper. It says i can appeal. And i should. I did not write or suggest the headline. I assume Richard Mostyn did. And i should complain or write a Letter to that Editor of the Yukon News 'cuz if u read the article, i was totally misquoted. I said something like "Dennis was not a pothead, he is an ex member of a heroin trafficking ring". The second letter, from past president Marie Cox states: "It is absurd for you or anyone to think that we as an executive and members of the Yukon Party were not aware of Mr Fentie's past 32 years ago." It was clear at Wednesday's Board Meeting that a "Conspiracy of Silence" existed going into the 2002 Election and that the mea culpa a few days after the Election on the Leg' front lawn was orchestrated by a few drama queens. Please understand folks, that it is not dennis' being an ex-con that bothers me. It is the realization that he and YP Board of Directors may have conspired to keep it quiet 'til after Election Day. Begs the question, This and what else? We no longer have a Premier or a Party that are respected role models. They lack integrity, morals and ethics in the quest for political opportunism. And that bothers me a lot. Have a good weekend, eh.

Breaking news from CKNW: B-C Supreme Court Judge Brenda Brown has fined the B.C. Teachers Federation $500,000 for contempt of court in the illegal strike that has shut down schools for two weeks.

As reported in our on-air interview at CHON-FM this morn, Cynthia Kearns is the flag bearer for the YP in Copperbelt. Thanx Sam at CHON. We also appreciate the excellent coverage of our polls and graphs by the efforts of Sarah at Klondike Sun in Dawson. TrendLines Summer Poll activity (and the blog) have been incl in segments at the W~h Star, Radio CBC-North & The Yukon News. I will add that there coulda been more publicity on our Blog commentary, but i am offended slightly by the journalists that are contacting us wrt the "rumour mill" and some of my controversial or politically incorrect statements yet they have not said a word about our last 4 press releases on recent Yukon polls. They know who they are. Our main objective at TrendLines is to take the pulse of the Territory and report back the results. We do this as a public service. Muckraking is fun but it should be carried out in the context of the bigger picture and not just for the purpose to embarrass or glorify.

We are still accepting votes and nominations for the Yukon's most worthy Space Cadet (see oct 18). Some are catching up to Todd, but it may be in vain if nobody sends us some money to fly the winner down to NASA.

Oct 20th: Today is Copperbelt Nomination Day for the YP. They can pick a computer geek like me or fentie's old alleged smoke buddy. For background on Copperbelt, see its poll graph below, the Oct 19th blog & Tuesday's Press Release. It's my mom's birthday today, so i will be somewhat quiet.

He's baaack. Peter Lesniak, the guy we all luv or hate... Ok, ok, the one everyone hates, seems to be working with the NDP caucus at YTG. "Welcome back to the arena, Peter." And if u didn't have the radio on at work ... By-Election was announced today for Nov 21st. Let the games begin...

Oct 19th: Ok, the graphs are done and all 18 are now uploaded. 6 Incumbents face defeat. All are from the Yukon Party. With our survey done, let me conclude this first episode by saying that i have a grave fear that the Yukon Party Gov't as we know it is about to enter the "lame duck" domain as they demonstrate once again that are just another Mickey Mouse organization that less want to associate with. If half the stuff my readers are sending to me is true, the Yukon Party will not be able to form a second mandate. I hate drugs. That is evident and no surprise here. And there is a growing problem with drugs in all our communities. When Mr Fentie and his Cabinet addressed this under direct questioning during the Cabinet Tour, i witnessed their response in somewhat shock. "Sorry, but this is a Federal jurisdiction."

Mark my words, a scandal involving drugs and illegal gambling will be shown pre-election to be pervasive in the Fentie Administration. I have been banned from tomorrow's Copperbelt Nomination Meeting by the Yukon Party. If there is a Q&A, i plead that someone ask Cynthia to be honest about her history with substance abuse in Watson Lake. I can't believe this rumour, but if true, think of the ramifications. Is Fentie further surrounding himself with the old gang?

Yes, some folks allowed Fentie his little contrition scene outside the Leg' in post-election 2002. The Party faithful rallied around him. Half the crowd were sympathetic 'cuz hell it was 30 years ago. It is the other half that i am worried about. Perhaps the Premier's heroin trafficking did end with his 4-yr invitation to Canada's Penitentiary System. I am satisfied that it did. But rumours abound that his own substance abuse did not end in 1975. And the same rumours attach to Cynthia. Drug use is a culture. It involves users, dealers, suppliers and draws in their innocent families as victims. A ring of protection and a false sense of anonymity due to the conspiracy of silence. Many of the Board of Directors and Executive of the Party have asked that their names not be shown on a proposed Party Brochure. Why is that? I have been on Political Party Boards (of all stripes) for 30 years and i don't like what i see this time.

I challenge Dennis Fentie to impose drug screening in the Cabinet Office, the YTG Executive Council Office and his Party Board of Directors and Officers. If all is well, he will never hear that topic from my keyboard again. I repeat. never. Let Dennis Fentie show us his mettle. Be clear Dennis et al, we sense that there is only one reason why substance abuse and gambling is tolerated and somewhat condoned in the Yukon ...

Yukoners don't want a post election mea culpa again. And i don't want to be part of a Party that believes "it's my Party, right or wrong" and thwarts those that ask the necessary questions. The Yukon Party is built on conservative values. It is not based on what some Yukoners say they see going on in the Cabinet Office and in private. No Party believes in "anything goes". The BC Liberal Party found it necessary to purge out some bad apples from its inner circle last year. It was drug related and it was embarrassing and ugly. But if there is a culture of drugs and illegal gambling within the Yukon Party, legislation/enforcement/justice will never attain levels necessary to combat those issues. And our society will suffer on. If u share my readers' concerns, let us all ask the tough questions at YTG...

On Sept 20th, i was told by the Premier & his circle that i would not be a good Yukoner or Party Member if i published my polls today. On Sept 21st, i was told by the Prez of the Yukon Party, Darrell Peters that Dennis Fentie wants me off the YP Board 'cuz my writings are "poison". Well i've thot about it for 30 days ... and screw 'em. Today's pollsters are not afraid to speak out on the issues of the day. Most pundit panels now include politically savvy pollsters. For me, chatting with 504 Yukoners gave insight. The Yukon Party believes that there exists some warped world where Party-friendly Pollsters publish the good polls but hold back the bad ones. Sorry mr fentie, but u are a neophyte and surrounded by amateurs. On every front he shows a pattern of Opportunism and self preservation. He has a history. He has no integrity. No ethics. And expects none in those around him. This is the image he has built around himself by his actions and the company he keeps. Take away his suit or Canada Games jacket and he is still just a street punk that demands fear, not respect, from his subordinates.

In the end, whether it is true or not does not really matter. He likes that image.

This is not to say that i have some newfound luv for another Party. Neither Fentie nor Peters or their circle of advisors understand that often these are not my words. I am from the Outside, eh. I know dick all about this stuff. Most of what i relate are concerns by real Yukon Party members ... not the enemy. But in Fentie's circle, they still try to shoot messengers, it seems.

Oct 18th: Rumour has it that they are taking this website way too serious in the Cabinet Office. We have three days to kill 'til we know the YP Nominee and i thot i'd help them lighten up over there. But, the Autumn blahs are here and it's hard to think of something. Too cold to fish. The moose are off the rut. And the snowline is too high to get out the skis or machines. What to do? Ahh, TrendLines has the answer: If we can raise enuf ad money, we're sending a lucky political animal to Fort Lauderdale to partake in Zero Gravity. It costs $4,500 but a Yukoner could be one of 27 aboard the Boeing G-Force One for a Zero G ride of a lifetime with three former astronauts. Do u know any Space Cadets that are worthy?? We are taking nominations now. Email us today. We will keep a running tally. But hurry, the flight is Nov 5th.

...well geeze, that sure didn't take long! Keep those cards & letters coming, eh. Caveat: this poll is unscientific but probably has a very low margin of error...

Today's experiment with interaction was quite illuminating. We got much more than we wanted to know... but don't let that stop ya. This may affect the structure of our new Yukon website 'cuz it's clear many out there are looking for an open forum. Some want me to be their voice. Others would like to type uncensored. Whoa, good thing my server is in the Virgin Islands!! BTW, where's the cheques to make this happen?

Some of the letters and calls we are getting are quite genuine in their concern of what directions the Territory is heading and the lack of input into that process. In the media we are getting rumblings of some First Nations being similarly dismayed. The Yukon is a small community and it is troubling that some find communication difficult. After all, the MLA's & civil service are our neighbours, friends and relatives... not the Evil Empire.

Oct 17th: We are approaching a very full 8 weeks of political activity. Evalina & i have been flattered with the attention our survey has created. An interesting development however has been the suggestions to take the commentary part of it to a higher plateau. It is encouraging that folks from all stripes and even some usually not so political types are wanting of some sort of new soapbox to promote orderly change in The Yukon. As a pollster, i can assist with some of that, but because TrendLines is an Int'l venue, i am readying a different format that makes navigation and "reading" more pleasant, not to mention that my server is getting clobbered! By coincidence, or maybe its the North of 60 inspiration, but my other activities are generating a record number of hits on the non-yukon part of our website at this same time. This site was designed around my need to present graphs, photo's, tables and stats and admittedly the black colour scheme is not conducive to alotta text. Many have sure let me know that one!! Anyway, for those that want this channel turned up a notch ... it's in the works. But whatever venue develops, we'll still do the polling thing each month 'til both the Federal & Territory Elections go by. And if Minority Gov't is really in the cards, this might go on & on & on...

All our Summer Survey results will be released this week. Late September polling will be tabulated & graphed for posting and public release soon thereafter. If u are a political junkie and need numbers faster, as we approach the Nomination period preceding the General Election, u can bribe me with your chequebook ($360) or barter some moose meat, eh.

Oct 15th: We were all sad to see Peter Lesniak leave the Yukon News, but never knew how hard it would be for them to get good help over there ... 'til we saw their post-peter attempts at political coverage. Friday's FrontPage inferences & misquotes of my two minute phone "interview" and of what i have said on this website guarantee that the 2006 edition of the Webster's Dictionary will feature Tim Querengesser's picture beside its definition of "ASSHOLE". Another sad day for what passes as journalism. Tim was the first reporter in the Yukon aware of our polling activities. But he and the Yukon News chose not to print one sentence from any of the three Press Releases below and go for the gutter talk instead. We get a ton of hits here and most will agree that there was lotsa juicy stuff w/o the need of his embellishment and innuendo. Enuf said...

Oct 14th: The Premier greeted me cordially last nite. I am not sure whether that makes him a gentleman or just blog-challenged... i desire the former 'cuz it is not my intention to start a war go after his leadership (yet). I came to the Yukon in part to continue some research into Global Warming and Global Energy Reserves. But i see a tolerance of incompetence and negligence within the bureaucracy and the gov't that is systemic and pervasive and thus prejudices the long term economic stability of the Yukon ... our new home. Good gov't requires Leadership. Leadership that must be a model all the way down. Rather than offend folks or implement politically unpopular decisions, we seem mired in a process of "status quo". This is not an ingredient that mixes well with all the tuff decisions that must be made in the Yukon for the rest of the decade. Our polling shows that we are presently watching a train wreck in slow motion. The Yukon Party is advertising an Autumn Convention later this month. It has another, the AGM, in the Spring. Its members will undertake the annual leadership review. As i see it, the Premier has six months to show those members, by actions ... not words, that he has what it takes to turn this around. And he must insist that the Cabinet Ministers and their Deputies demand the same discipline. I am getting conflicting but insightful emails and calls. Some say the bureaucracy it dictating to the Legislators because the latter is weak. Others are saying the upper bureaucrats are resisting Legislators input because the latter are inept. Either way, collaboration seems road blocked and we the citizens are the victims in this mess. Often perception becomes reality, and even if these rumours of conflict between the Legislators and the Civil Service is not true, Yukon Party members should insist that resolution (or the illusion of the same) take place soon or they should consider their options at the AGM. But who would take the reins? Nobody is being groomed.

And that goes to the heart of something i've chatted about with Frank Turner and others, including the Media. There is a movement afoot to open up the Electoral Reform process again. They are circulating a Petition as we speak, i mean "type". We all know that the Yukon News editorials and article reporting is downright hostile wrt Legislature coverage. I understand that they are in attack mode no matter which Party is governing. And the W~h Star is seemingly more impatient with our Legislators as well. If we look at the problem, rather than the symptoms, is it possible that the Yukon and its small population does not have the critical mass to support having good people in territorial/municipal government, the civil service as well as private enterprise? Is the pool of 20,000 voters too small to demand excellence? Or, is the prospect of vicious media scrutiny scaring away good legislators? We live in a continuing era where there is the perception that most in the Yukon have skeletons. I am not convinced that the Leg' can support the conventional Party system. In my short time here, i have met fine people in all three Parties. Together they could be our Dream Team. So, do we review going back to a non-partisanship format or do we throw a couple of them together in a Coalition Gov't next year and tell them to do their best? In short, i am proposing that Cabinet Ministers & Committee Chairpersons be invited from the Opposition and that we strive for more collaboration rather than years of confrontation and partisanship.

The Yukon Party, with alotta help via Larry Bagnell's Infrastructure cheques, has been at the helm while the Economy saw its Unemployment Rate drop from double digits to 4.2%. But it is "seen" to have had more than its share of problems along the way and that threatens the Yukon future. Perhaps Yukoners are about to throw out its third Party Gov't because none of the three Parties have the depth of supporters to pull off good governance because of our small population. My hometown is Woodstock. Same number of folks there. I cannot for the life of me see the city council dividing up into three parties to run the municipality. Hell, the City of Vancouver couldn't even do it. I am beginning to ramble but i hope i've made my point. We have to do with the best we've got in the Yukon (Dawson folks tell us that all the time). If we have an ex drug trafficker for Premier, let's use his experience in that realm to battle substance abuse in our Territory (or there's the Inuvik method!!). If he needs help running the Territory, then let him draw some good people despite their stripes. If he fails to show the Yukon Party he can handle this, i will help them find a new leader. If they go with the flow, Yukon voters will toss its third Party in a row. The NDP, the Liberals and now the YP have all tried and failed. I don't see that starting a new round of giving each Party a new turn is the solution. Too much momentum and experience is lost in these transitions. Somebody must to do something enlightening and different or fate beholds him. Somebody has six months...

Oct 13th: Well, the proverbial sh*t has hit the fan. One does three press releases and all is quiet. But stir up the Premier's dark past and your web server goes on alert and the Media has the phone ringin' of the wall...

What would happen if i discarded my inhibitions & let folks know what i really think?!!

Nobody knows if the Premier will announce the By-Election tomorrow (it's Friday again) or wait 'til the YP has named their Candidate on Thursday. Methinx the latter. Our 18 graphs are ready for tomorrow if need be. Many of the MLA's are here in Judas Creek tonite for the ongoing Premier's Cabinet Tour. So duty calls and i gotta zip over and see if the Firehall is full of happy campers or whatnot.

i'm baaaack ... a good effort by the Cabinet & Premier Fentie. Discussion was free wheeling and went back & forth across the floor w/o over moderation and there seemed to be genuine concern by his Team to do follow-up on unresolved issues for the Southern Lakes constituents. They coulda evicted me when Topaz came in thru the open front door half-way thru the event ... but all dealt with it in humour! She was a new mom this summer and has a bit of separation anxiety!

Oct 12th: Is this a sad day or what? Disgusting! Who woulda believed Mr Fentie could call the Leg' back before the Copperbelt By-Election?? What or who is he afraid of? There will be alotta pissed off voters out there...

We are told by the Media that Mr Fentie has called the Fall Sitting for Oct 27th ... but is not available for comment. Really, eh. This indicates the Fall Sitting will likely end Dec 9th. If the By-Election is called the day after the YP Nomination Meeting, Copperbelters will go to the polls Nov 21st and their new MLA will be welcomed to the Leg' on Nov 28th ... for a meagre 10-day visit.

Oct 7th: Progress in Copperbelt. Yukon Party announced today that it's Nomination Meeting will be Oct 20th at the Transportation Museum. (this could allow for a Nov 21st By-Election)

Oct 5th: Cynthia is in a race. Daryl Novakowski has reluctantly been exposed by several media sources this week as we read in the W~h Star:

However, Novakowski didn’t release a notice to the press. Instead he said the information just got to some of media and other Yukoners through “word of mouth.”

Hopefully when he gets over his apparent shyness and gets advice that an unlisted phone number is not helpful, he and Cynthia can play catch-up, get the Yukon Party Nomination Meeting out of the way and officially join the others on the hustings. I'm still banking on a Nov 28th By-election. Upon that announcement, we will release our full poll.

Oct 3rd: Hey, they found somebody! Cynthia Kearns, announced on CKRW that she will run in the Yukon Party's upcoming Nomination Meeting. Her opponent has chosen not to go public at this time.

Oct 1st: Our Copperbelt polling continues thru September!! Check back here 'cuz in less than three days, we will learn whether the Yukon Party is poised to reclaim this Independent Riding or see it snatched away from them by Arthur Mitchell of the Liberal Party or by newly nominated Maureen Stephens of the NDP. We don't have a Yukon Party name to stick there yet and when u play with the timelines for a Nomination Meeting, the writ period, etc etc; then it looks like Copperbelters will be heading to the ballot boxes on Nov 28th or so.

Sept 28th: With respect to the Premier taking his sweet time in calling a By-Election, it is my humble opinion that any political leader would do the same. There are protocols to observe in the Nomination process. We now see that the NDP's recent choice to shortcut those was reliant on the fact that Ms Stephens had no viable opposition. The vote was 17-3-3.

The Copperbelt Riding Assoc for the Yukon Party could be at some fault in not scheduling a Nomination after the Arntzen conviction, but a light sentence was imminent and that could have allowed Arntzen the opportunity to resume his work in the Autumn. House arrest extinguished that.

What would be an unforgivable disgrace however, would be for the Premier to call an Autumn sitting such that it prevents the new Copperbelt MLA from maximum time in the Legislature before Christmas break. There is absolutely no pressing issue that requires Fentie to commence Question Period before mid-November albeit convention may dictate that course. The citizens in Copperbelt have been thru much turmoil in 2004 and 2005 and allowing them a sitting member in December is the honourable thing to do. We shall see in the coming weeks if the Premier is concerned about Copperbelters or is plainly an Opportunist. If the latter comes to pass, it is a good thing that a General Election will follow in 2006 and it will be Yukoners determining Dennis Fentie's fate rather than vice versa.

Dennis Fentie cannot afford to be cocky and political on this matter. He must remember that in reality he holds his positions of MLA & Premier in a caretaker role. In 2002, he misled the Media and the voters by giving us Yukoners the impression that he was just a hicktown pothead selling grass to his friends back in his dark past. In reality, it was found later "when we checked him out" that he was actually part of a heroin trafficking ring in Edmonton. As far as the voters are concerned, Dennis Fentie is still on probation and being monitored for his contrition of that misrepresentation. If by his actions he shows Yukoners that there is a pattern to his Opportunism, i.e. for his personal political gain... the ultimate price may be the withdrawal of his right to govern in 2006.

Sept 27th, 2005: Six Incumbents (incl 4 Cabinet Ministers) are presently not destined to retain their Ridings ... stakeholders will know their identities as well in our 4th & final release in this series.

Yukon Party News

Send email to Freddy Hutter with questions or comments about this web site
Copyright © 1989-2010 TrendLines Research ~ Last modified: February 01, 2010

Yukon Party News

Send email to Freddy Hutter with questions or comments about this web site Copyright © 1989-2010 TrendLines Research ~ Last modified: February 01, 2010

Send email to Freddy Hutter with questions or comments about this web site
Copyright © 1989-2010 TrendLines Research ~ Last modified: February 01, 2010