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Judas Creek, YT
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"By-Elections are often ho-hum. But this one could set events in
motion that will dictate the future fate of the Yukon!!"
says Freddy Hutter, political analyst with
TrendLines, a new Yukon polling firm that has surveyed 504 voters
over the past few weeks. He continues...
"Arthur
Mitchell has increased his early lead in Copperbelt. Polling from
late last month shows that the new Liberal Leader has widened his
margin since Maureen Stephens announced her candidacy and both seem
to be leaving the yet to be nominated Yukon Party hopeful in the
dust.
"For Arthur Mitchell, winning his seat
is critical beyond doubt. Mitchell must get into the Legislature
for the Autumn Question Period and strut his stuff. If he fails to
win Copperbelt or wins but falters in the Leg', the demise of the
Liberal Party going into the General Election is upon him. That
Party can ill afford another Leadership contest."
In
polling that took place July 23-Sept 30th, the Liberals have 46%
support, the NDP 33% and the Yukon Party 21% in this District race.
This result is parsed from an ongoing Yukon-wide survey gauging
Party support in all of the 18 Electoral Districts and includes 504
voters to date.
"This is the largest ever political
sampling attempt in the Yukon and the results will be quite
insightful on a variety of current political topics."
"Copperbelt Electoral District has been the center of attention for
a long time.
Copperbelters are likely weary of waiting for the other shoes to
drop in the drawn out controversy. We had the Haakon Arntzen
charges. Then his resignation from the Yukon Party caucus to sit as
an Independent MLA in the Yukon Legislature. The Trial. The
Conviction. Firing the Lawyer. The Protests. The Sentencing. And
now the Appeal and eventual By-Election call."
Commenting on the results, voter feedback and his
personal opinion of the Copperbelt situation, Hutter elaborated that
"There are very few jurisdictions where a mere
criminal conviction is grounds for ousting an MLA or MP in Canada.
The acid test would seem to be whether the subsequent sentencing
would impede that individual from his legislative duties. In that
regard, Premier Fentie was fully justified in awaiting the September
sentencing date before allowing any proceedings initiated by the
Opposition that would have led to the MLA's removal. In the end,
Arntzen likely saw his Resignation as a political reality more so
than as an obligation, but the surprise House Arrest condition
nailed this one shut. In my opinion, he brought that one on by
himself by pissing off the Judge and postponing his Resignation by
one day to hear the Sentence instead of proceeding with it on the
original Sentence Day. All of us in the Courtroom were shocked to
hear Arntzen's lawyer make the postponement declaration. Everyone's
eyes just rolled and u could see by the Judge's body language that
he was not at all impressed with those theatrics."
"This Riding is currently winnable
by anyone. Our polling and the comments showed us that Copperbelt
residents are not angry at Haakon Arntzen. In fact, they feel that
his situation was manipulated and politicized. What he did was
wrong. Very wrong. But more than once it was brought to our
attention that while he was flirting with youngsters 30 years ago,
Dennis Fentie was trafficking heroin in Edmonton. Growing numbers
are finding some irony here. Should these gentlemen be looked at in
perspective, one might ask if it is the right one that did the
honourable thing and resigned? That aside, there are alotta Yukon
Party supporters in Copperbelt and they have a chance in November of
electing a sitting member of the Gov't and the perks and privileges
that comes with that action as compared to having an MLA that is a
member of the Opposition."
"On the other hand, should they go with
Maureen Stephens, Copperbelters could be electing a future member of
the governing NDP, should that Party go on to win the General
Election that must be called by November 2006. Todd Hardy would go
into the writ period with 6 of the 7, 8 or 9 seats that could earn
him a Minority Gov't; And 10 would give him a Majority and a very
long mandate as the new Premier.
Maureen
was one
of the loudest of the Arntzen critics this summer. Will her adopted
Copperbelt forgive a now apparent agenda?"
"With respect to the Premier taking his
sweet time in calling a By-Election, it is my humble opinion that
any political leader would do the same. There are protocols to
observe in the Nomination process. That the NDP chose to shortcut
those is now evident in the fact that Ms Stephens had no viable
opposition. The vote was 17-3-3. The Copperbelt Riding Assoc for
Yukon Party could be at some fault in not scheduling a Nomination
after the Arntzen conviction, but a conditional sentence seemed
imminent and that would have allowed Arntzen the opportunity to
continue as MLA with little fear of dismissal provided he resumed a
conventional routine."
"It is an unforgivable disgrace that
the Premier called the Autumn sitting early to prevent a potential
Opposition member from maximum time in the Legislature. There is
absolutely no pressing issue that requires Fentie to open Question
Period in October albeit convention may dictate that course. The
citizens in Copperbelt have been thru much turmoil in 2004 and 2005
and allowing them a sitting member in December is the honourable
thing to do. The Premier is showing himself to be plainly a
political Opportunist. Unfortunately, in 2006 it will be Yukoners
determining Dennis Fentie's fate rather than vice versa. There were
many chasing the wrong rabbit on this issue. The vocal demands
should have been for a postponement of the Fall Sitting ... not a
hurry-up of the By-Election."
"Dennis Fentie cannot afford to be
cocky and political on this matter. He must remember that in
essence he holds his positions of MLA & Premier in a caretaker
role. In 2002, he misled the Media and the voters by giving
Yukoners the impression that he was just a hicktown pothead selling
grass to his friends. In reality, we found "when we checked him
out" that he was part of a heroin trafficking ring in Edmonton. As
far as the voters are concerned, Dennis Fentie is still on probation
and being monitored for his contrition of that misrepresentation.
If by his actions he shows Yukoners that there is a pattern to his
Opportunism, i.e. for his personal gain... the price may be the
withdrawal of his right to govern in 2006."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The TrendLines survey goes on to forecast that had
there been a Territorial Election this past month, Premier Dennis
Fentie would have retained his own Watson Lake riding but going down
to defeat would have been 4 Cabinet Ministers: John Edzerza, Jim
Kenyon, Archie Lang & Glenn Hart. It seems significant that the
voters are in the mood to toss only Yukon Party Incumbents, none
from the Liberal Party or NDP. Rounding out the six electable
challenged MLA's are Patrick Rouble of Southern Lakes Electoral
District and Ted Staffen of Riverdale North, Speaker of the
Legislature. Only 6% of the Respondents were Undecided in this
survey, the first done in the Yukon by TrendLines, recently
relocated to the Yukon from the Sea-to-Sky Corridor near Whistler.
A Territorial Election
must be called by November 2006. The poll indicates that the NDP
would have formed a Minority Gov't with 9 MLA's, while the Yukon
Party would have only elected five and the Liberals would have
increased their fortune to four. All the present NDP Incumbents
would have been re-elected, as would have Pat Duncan for the Liberal
Party. Returning Yukon Party Incumbents would have included
ex-Premier Fentie, Peter Jenkins. Elaine Taylor, Dean Hassard and
Brad Cathers.
"It
is important for Yukon Party members and supporters to look at this
view of the future and analyze what is going wrong. And one should
maybe ask "why these six? Is there a message here? I would say
that the situation involves two factors. The first is the obvious:
the electorate in those Ridings are not seeing or hearing enuf
satisfactory activities by their MLA. However, because these 6
MLA's are all from the Yukon Party and none are involved in any
controversial issues, we have to consider that these gentlemen are
perhaps all unfortunate casualties of dissatisfaction with the
perceived performance and image of the Yukon Party Gov't. "
"There are folks out there that are
angry about the handling of the M-I-A Copperbelt MLA Haakon
Arntzen; and the handling of the defaulted Business Development
Fund Loan by Klondike MLA and Cabinet Minister Peter Jenkins; and
the deception during the 2002 Election of his actually trafficking
heroin rather than marijuana by Watson Lake MLA & Premier, Dennis
Fentie. Still others are upset over the issues of the Carmacks
school; the protection of the Caribou calving grounds; the
Reindeer controversy; the Watson Lake pharmacy; the veterinary
school; Whitehorse subdivision approvals; land lotteries; and so
it goes, on and on. These voters are Yukon wide and are not for the
most part angry at their own MLA, but by intending to vote for the
other two parties, they are sending a certain and clear message to
the Party and the Premier."
"Thus
we find that there is no single issue bringing on the Party's defeat
at this point. It is, rather, an incremental death by a thousand
nicks. But does that make the resurrection by By-election or
General Election time more difficult or easier? Is there anything
the Party or the Premier can do between now and the Election to
reverse that overwhelming sentiment? Could a dynamite Election
platform snatch victory away from the NDP during the four weeks of
an Election campaign? On one hand, it must be remembered that four
months before the 2002 Election, the Yukon Party was at 23%
according to a DataPath poll. In the intervening period and upon
presentation of their planks, they rose to the occasion and achieved
40% popularity by Election Day. But, on the other hand, momentum
seems to be on the side of the NDP this time around."
According to Hutter,
"Despite the potential loss of six Ridings, the Yukon Party
continues to hold the lead in popular opinion with 35% overall
support across the Territory; the
NDP follow with 34%
and the
Liberals hold 29%
of decided voters while a mere 1%
desire as yet undeclared Independent candidates."
Compared to the last election, and adjusting for the Independent
component, this represents a loss of 6% for the Yukon Party, a loss
of 1% for the Liberal Party and a net gain of 7% by the NDP.
"Concentration of support is more important than the overall
numbers"
cautioned Hutter.
"As a
number cruncher, i must remind all that in the 2002 Election, the
NDP were two per cent behind the Liberals in total votes cast on
Election Day but in the end attained four more seats!"
The greatest plurality
in any one Riding is had by Premier Dennis Fentie in Watson Lake
where he captured 75% of decided voters. Substantial leads are held
by Eric Fairclough with 69%in Mayo-Tatchun and both Peter Jenkins of
Klondike and Dean Hassard of Pelly-Nisutlin have 58% support. Most
threatened Incumbents at this point are Glenn Hart of Riverdale
South with only 19% and Jim Kenyon in Porter Creek North with 23%.
John Edzerza in McIntyre-Takhini & Archie Lang in Porter Creek North
are both vulnerable at 33% popular support levels. In 2002, Gary
McRobb had highest individual support with 65% in Kluane.
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The TrendLines poll also
shows that
things are looking
very positive for Liberal incumbent Larry Bagnell. His poll shows
that exactly 50% of Yukoners support Bagnell compared to 24% for the
Conservatives and 24% of decided popular opinion for the NDP.
Neither of the latter parties have nominated candidates in place at
this time. The "others" category trails with 2%. Hutter commented
"It is apparent
from Larry's Summer Report distributed last month that he is
distancing himself from the Liberal Party of Canada. On
examination, the word "Liberal" and Liberal Logo are nowhere to be
seen. We noticed in Respondents' comments that he is definitely
more popular than his Party for sure. If Bagnell loses, it will be
due to the unpopularity of Paul Martin and the Gomery Inquiry
disclosures of Party corruption, not due to anything disliked about
Larry or his record. This is very clear."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Another part of the
survey has figures illustrating that 18% of Yukoners would be in
favour of Seceding from Canada if BC & Alberta would vote to
Separate from Canada. Hutter found that the hot spots for Secession
were communities with strong Conservative and likely former Reform
Party ties. Growing fatigue with Ottawa has bred active Separatist
Parties in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan & Manitoba.
It reported these highlights:
Almost one of five Yukoners favours Separation from Canada, should
the Western Provinces decide in the future to go it alone.
In the first
survey of its kind in the Territory, it was shown that
18% of Yukoners support joining with BC & Alberta
should those Provinces decide to secede from Canada. This follows
on the heels of a simultaneous poll in the four western provinces
where support for Secession talks ranges from 42% - 28%. Whereas
the Western Standard poll asked a softer question with respect to
"opening discussions" on Separation, the TrendLines poll was more
direct and asked 456 Yukon residents if they favour outright
Secession from Canada in an alliance with Alberta & BC.
Our hot spots for western alienation from Ottawa are the Southern
Lakes Electoral District where almost four in ten (38%) voted in
favour, followed by about one in four in Klondike (29%), Watson Lake
(27%), Whitehorse Centre (25%), Kluane & Vuntut Gwitchin (24%) and
one in five in Whitehorse West (20%).
Federalism is highest in Riverdale South where the support for
Secession was only one in 25 (4%), followed by Pelly-Nisutlin (9%),
Porter Creek North (11%), Porter Creek South, Riverdale North &
McIntyre-Takhini (13%), Mount Lorne & Lake Laberge (17%),
Mayo-Tatchun & Porter Creek Centre (18%) and Copperbelt (19%).
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Based on the 504 Yukoners that were randomly selected from the 73
Polling Divisions of the 18 Electoral Districts, this scientific
survey was conducted from July 23-Sept 30 2005 and has a margin of
error of 4.3% on the Secession Poll (incl 2% Undecided), the Federal
Yukon Riding Poll (9% Undecided) & the YTG Popular Opinion Poll (7%
Undecided) and 19% avg for each of the 18 individual YTG Electoral
Districts (overall 7% Undecided) used in the Yukon Riding
Projections, 19 times in 20. TrendLines, active in economic and
political affairs since 1989, is renowned for its Federal Riding
Projection that illustrates how many MP's each Party is likely to
win if a Canadian General Election were called. Commentary and a
variety of other polls and graphs on a variety of subjects are
available at the firm's website,
www.TrendLines.ca
and Hutter may be contacted via
graphs@TrendLines.ca
for questions, comments or to contract their varied consultive
services.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
As background profile,
Freddy Hutter of TrendLines has been active in politics since
watching the Trudeau leadership bid in 1968 and his Poli-Sci days at
Univ of Waterloo where he says socialism thrived. Due to his
political savvy and pulse on public opinion, he has in the past
accepted invitations Outside to act as a resource person and Board
of Director for the NDP, Liberal, Reform and Reform-Ontario
Parties. That tradition continues and Hutter has been welcomed as a
Director to several Societies as well as the Conservative and Yukon
Parties since his arrival last November. When not in election mode,
his career has included research in the fields of global climate
change with respect to long term solar cycles and a unique
presentation on the depletion of global oil reserves. He does real
estate analysis, real estate
and business financing, economic analysis,
web design, and as a small business coach, is a casual
instructor of Entrepreneurship for First Nations at Yukon College.
His phone canvasser and soul mate is a former Solidarity activist,
Evalina Zamana, now a proud Canadian Citizen and a financial planner
with a specialty in Registered Education Savings Plans (RESP's).
They moved to Judas Creek with their Hungarian sheep dog, a Kuvasz
named Topaz, from the BC's Sea-to-Sky Corridor. Hutter hails from
Kitchener-Waterloo and Woodstock while Zamana's hometown is
Bialystok, Poland.
Copyright 2005.
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contact:
Freddy Hutter, Analyst
TrendLines
867.660.5533
604.648.9473.fax
PO Box 45, Tagish YT Y0B1T0
graphs@TrendLines.ca
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