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The Press Release (2005/9/09):
TrendLines Poll: Yukon NDP Poised
to Form
Minority Gov't
Judas Creek, YT -
With
Premier Dennis Fentie's mandate running out in fifteen months, a mid-Summer
survey of public opinion by TrendLines, a market research firm recently
relocated to the Yukon, projects that
the governing
Yukon Party may have headed for certain defeat by taking only 5 of the 18
Electoral Districts,
had there been a General Election
at this time. That is a net loss of six from its present status. Meanwhile,
the NDP would have seen their fortune rise by four for a total of 9 and the
Liberal Party would have gained three for a total of 4 MLA's.
Ten is a crucial minimum number for any party that hopes to govern
with a voting majority in the Legislature. This was a scientific random survey
with 454 Respondents of which 6% were Undecided..
Commenting on
the results and voter feedback, TrendLines analyst, Freddy Hutter elaborated
that
"Of course this is just a snapshot in time, but present indications
are that Todd Hardy and the NDP are poised to form a Minority Gov't in the
Yukon. One must be cautious with this data because it is also clear that many
respondents will not make a decision 'til they know who the candidates are
within their own Electoral District. That is to say, the local candidate is
more important to some in their decision making than is Party loyalty, Party
platforms or a choice based on their feelings towards the three Territorial
Leaders. In that respect, we are seeing in some Districts that there are
several Incumbents who are hurting because of their Yukon Party affiliation in
particular. We often got the comment that "I like my Incumbent and I would vote
for my MLA normally but i can's stand Fentie and/or the Yukon Party any
longer". And when those Respondents said the Yukon Party, i am quite sure that
they meant the Fentie Cabinet, because our data shows that 4 of his 6 Cabinet
Ministers would have been defeated based on present sentiment. But i will add
that this anti governing party emotion is common when a right wing, business
oriented Party is implementing its platform. Turning a jurisdiction's economy
and momentum around often requires unpleasant decisions. And normally, as we
near the brink of an Election, voters do a "pause and reflect" and give them the
second mandate realizing that new policy has a long implementation period and
concrete results take even more time. There is generally an acknowledgment that
things are better than times at the end of the previous Administration. Among
the NDP & Yukon Incumbents, we have some that are more popular than their Party
and will be re-elected regardless; but we have some that are likewise more
popular than their Party but will be overwhelmed by this NDP momentum.
"And it goes a step further. Although Premier Dennis Fentie received a sweeping
endorsement of his Leadership at the Spring AGM of his Party, that popularity
does not seem to trickle down to the general population. A growing perception
executive "aloofness" seems to turn off quite a chunk of voters during our
snapshot this season and, while he has excellent name recognition ... the
attitude towards Mr Fentie is not what i would call a ringing endorsement or
value add to the Party right now. Fortunately the Premier has over a year to do
some repair work to his image. To win, i get the feeling that the voters will
not allow the Yukon Party to renew its mandate based on its record alone. They,
the electorate, want also to see a plan of action for what's coming in the next
term ... and it had better address some of their outstanding issues. And it
would be wise for the Cabinet to use a consultative process to build that Policy
Platform. Anecdotally I sense that Business, Industry and Social proponents
desire input to where the Territory is headed in the medium and long term.
It is significant that this same vocal disdain against a Party or its Leader is
not aimed at either the NDP or Liberal Party in folks' comments. In the end,
people will have to decide whether the unpopular decisions are best for our long
term growth and sustainable prosperity. We saw a parallel scenario in BC where
the silent majority had a similar dilemma in May and returned a very unpopular
Campbell and his Liberals to continue its agenda. A year ago the Liberals
really sucked in the polls but folks had to come to terms with what a change in
gov't would do to the momentum of the Economy down there. And they had some
help from the process of vote splitting. The Green Party sapped away votes on
Election Day. Had that not happened, it is clear from the number crunching that
the NDP could have formed a Minority Gov't in the Spring. Likewise here, there
is marginal support that is switching between polls from the NDP to the Liberal
Party and back. At an opportune time, the Yukon Party could win on that split
vote phenomena. In summary, if the Yukon Party is seen to have compassion
toward some social and green issues, a second mandate is within grasp, given the
flexibility in the time line."
The Premier has pledged to grant Copperbelt voters a By-Election. That event
could allow the Yukon Party to trial balloon some of its visions for the second
mandate. If Arthur Mitchell wins, then that process also allows the public to
see the new Liberal Leader in Question Period in the Spring. His performance
there and his Statements in the public forum throughout the Territory will allow
venues for the voters to gauge his abilities against Toddy Hardy and even the
Premier. Today's Party support levels and our Riding Projection can take on a
significant new look depending on whether Arthur impresses or fails. A poor
performance could enhance NDP support and push the NDP into Majority domain. A
reasonable performance could split the vote and give the Yukon Party the win.
While a stellar job may award the Liberals another but outside chance at
governing."
"There is a huge responsibility possibly facing the next Premier,
whoever it will be. There are forces afoot to fast track Bush's Homeland
Security agenda of an Alaskan Pipeline twinned with a railway. The Yukon will
need a strong negotiating team for the many decisions that must be made. It is
imperative that the electorate take that into consideration when marking the
ballot. On that note, I caution Yukoners to take the time and watch Question
Period this Autumn and in the Spring. In watching the last Spring and Fall
sessions, there seems to be very little debate on issues and vision related
substance. It has become a playground for evasion and character assassinations
by almost all the Players. Because some other
jurisdictions do the same does not make it right. We need more citizens in
there that will help raise the bar. We know who the shining lights are in that
place. In 2006, voters have another chance to make it a venue that promotes
good gov't and decorum or let it drift along with the same old same old."
"I always mention a huge caveat when discussing mid-term polls. The Incumbents
are running against "phantom Candidates for the other Parties. It must be
remembered that not all Parties have the same depth to field a team of
candidates, let alone a future Cabinet, and when District voters see who their
final choices are, the sentiment that we see today can vanish quickly. There is
also an unwarranted assumption in the methodology that all the Incumbents will
run for re-election. We may see some of the present MLA's choose not to run
again and some may fail to be re-nominated by their Constituency Associations in
favour of Party members deemed to be more qualified or a better campaigner."
According to Hutter, "Despite
the potential loss of six Ridings, the Yukon Party continues to hold the lead in
popular opinion with 35% overall support in the Territory; the
NDP follows with 34%
and the
Liberals hold 29%
of decided voters
while a mere 1% desire as yet undeclared Independent candidates."
Compared to the last election, this represents a loss of 5% for the Yukon Party
and the gain of 7% by the NDP. The Liberal Party holds even and the
Independents are down 3%.
"Concentration of support is
more important than the overall numbers"
said Hutter.
"As a number cruncher, i must remind all that in the 2002
Election, the NDP were two per cent behind the Liberals in total votes cast but
attained four more seats! ".
Currently, the NDP has the
greatest gain when one considers that the breakdown of total votes in the 2002
Election was: Yukon Party - 40%, Liberal Party - 29%, NDP - 27% & Independents -
4%.
TrendLines, recently relocated to Judas Creek from
the Sea-to-Sky Corridor near Whistler and has been active in political and
economic affairs since 1989. This is their first Yukon poll and it is the
largest
political sampling in the Yukon since the 2002 Election.
Of most current interest as
a voting constituency is the Autumn by-election initiated by Haakon Arntzen's
resignation as the Independent MLA for the Electoral District of Copperbelt.
TrendLines analyst, Freddy Hutter, advised that results of how each Party
is doing in Copperbelt and each of the other 17 Electoral Districts may be
released later in the month.
Based on the 456 Yukoners that were randomly selected from the 73 Polling
Divisions of the 18 Electoral Districts, this scientific survey was conducted
from July 23-Aug 21 2005 and has a margin of error of 4.6% on the Secession Poll
(incl 2% Undecided), the Federal Yukon Riding Poll (9% Undecided) & the YTG
Popular Opinion Poll (6% Undecided) and 20% for each of the 18 individual YTG
Electoral Districts (overall 6% Undecided) used in the Yukon Riding Projection,
19 times in 20. The national polls used in the Federal Riding Projection had an
average margin of error of 3.5%.
As background
profile, Freddy Hutter of TrendLines has been active in politics since watching
the Trudeau leadership bid in 1968 and his Poli-Sci days at Univ of Waterloo
where he says socialism thrived. Due to his political savvy and pulse
on public opinion, he has in the past accepted invitations Outside to act as a
resource person and Board of Director for the NDP, Liberal, Reform and
Reform-Ontario Parties. That tradition continues and Hutter has been welcomed
as a Director to several Societies as well as the Conservative and Yukon Parties
since his arrival in November. When not in election mode, his career has
included research in the fields of global climate change with respect to long
term solar cycles and a unique presentation on the depletion of global oil
reserves. He does real estate analysis, real estate and business
financing, economic analysis, web design, and as a small business
coach, is a casual instructor of Entrepreneurship for First Nations at Yukon
College. His phone canvasser and soul mate is a former Solidarity activist,
Evalina Zamana, now a proud Canadian Citizen and a financial planner with a
specialty in Registered Education Savings Plans (RESP's). They moved to Judas
Creek with their Hungarian sheep dog, a Kuvasz named Topaz, from the BC's
Sea-to-Sky Corridor. Hutter hails from Kitchener-Waterloo and Woodstock while
Zamana's hometown is Bialystok, Poland.
Although this was a random
scientific poll, in a North American first, the survey results were available to
Respondents at the firm's website in real time over the thirty day event. Shortly
after hanging up, Respondents could go online and see running graphs of the
results. Commentary and a variety of other polls and graphs on a variety of
subjects are available at the firm's website,
www.TrendLines.ca and Hutter may be contacted via
graphs@TrendLines.ca for questions, comments or to contract their varied
consultive services.
Copyright 2005. |
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