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The Press Release
(2005/9/02):
TrendLines Poll: Will Larry
Bagnell & the Liberals Retain Yukon Riding?
Judas Creek, YT - With a post-Gomery Report
Federal Election pledged for February by Paul Martin, things are looking very
positive for Liberal incumbent Larry Bagnell. A local survey done by
TrendLines, a polling firm recently relocated to Judas Creek in the Yukon, shows
that exactly 50% of Yukoners support Bagnell compared to 24% for the
Conservatives and 24% of decided popular opinion for the NDP. Neither of the
latter parties have nominated candidates in place at this time. The "others"
category trails with 2%. But TrendLines analyst Freddy Hutter commented
"It is apparent from Larry's Summer Report
distributed last month that he is distancing himself from the Liberal Party of
Canada. On examination, the word "Liberal" and Liberal Logo are nowhere to be
seen. While we find he has high popularity in the survey comments, he is
definitely more popular than his Party for sure. If Bagnell loses, it will be
due to the unpopularity of Paul Martin and the Gomery Inquiry disclosures of
Party corruption, not due to anything disliked about Larry or his record. This
is very clear."
Also released today was the August update to
the TrendLines Federal Riding Projection. Although TrendLines analyst Freddy
Hutter does not expect an Election until Feb 20th 2006, the current projection
illustrates how many seats each Party would win if a Canadian Election were
called today. This month's Projection shows that the Liberals would remain in
Minority status with 143 ridings to their claim, based upon analysis of national
opinion poll data within the last thirty days. Steven Harper's Conservative
Party would retain Official Opposition status with 79 ridings, the
Bloc-Quebecois would have held 62 seats and the NDP 24 if an Election was held
in August. A Party requires 155 seats to attain majority status in the 308-seat
House of Commons. Since the June 2004 Election, these results reflect a gain of
8 each for the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois, five for the NDP and a loss of
20 Ridings for the Conservative Party. TrendLines has been active in economic
and political affairs since 1989.
Hutter commented "There clearly is no appetite among voters for an Election.
But, Canadians are none-the-less committed to one based on the Prime Minister's
June pledge to let voters go to the polling booth after the Gomery Final Report,
expected Dec 15th. There is widespread criticism that the Conservative Party
misplayed their cards in the House of Commons. I don't agree. It is evident in
retrospect that Stephen Harper had only a one week window to strike. It is
unfair the way the media and even Conservative Party members are blasting him
for dropping the ball. It is my impression that folks very soon realized that
the guilty scoundrels had already been purged from their bureaucratic or Quebec
Liberal Party positions and that there were no sitting MP's in Ottawa that could
be blamed for this past misconduct. Hence no Election was required and the
national polls did a reversal back to the Liberal Party.
I am also certain that when the Inquiry lawyers could not ask Chrétien or Martin
one burning question upon their appearance, it was seen that there was no
smoking gun and the issue was basically dead in back in February. There was a
brief flurry of enthusiasm among the media and the Opposition in April with
certain Liberal insider confessions, but it was a dead horse at that stage, in
my opinion. We have seen in the national polls that even if Belinda had not
crossed the Floor, the Liberal Party favour was rebounding. Had the Gov't been
defeated in the Spring, the House standing would have been almost the same as
the 2004 Election status. A major disruption and waste of taxpayers' money for
naught. There are a lot of pundits out there that don't have a clue what they
are talking about frankly when they give their analysis of what happened on the
Hill this year."
The Territory survey was conducted July 23-Aug
21 and includes 456 residents across the Yukon, incl 9% Undecided, yielding a
margin of error of 4.6%, 19 times in 20. This was Part II in a multiple release
of this large political survey.
TrendLines is currently tabulating Part III of the Survey and
it will answer inquiring minds that wonder which of the three Parties will form
the government when Dennis Fentie attempts to renew his mandate in a Territorial
Election that must be called by November 2006. Currently the Yukon Party has 11
MLA's, the NDP 5, there is one Liberal and a single Independent. This soon to
be released poll result, like his renowned Federal Riding projection, will be
the first scientific poll locally that is done in a manner that gives the public
a likely prediction of the number of MLA's that would have been elected by each
Party to the Yukon Legislature had a Summer general election been called.
In Part I last week, TrendLines released figures showing that 18% of Yukoners
would be in favour of Seceding from Canada if BC & Alberta would vote to
Separate from Canada. Hutter found that the hot spots for Secession were
communities with strong Conservative and likely former Reform Party ties.
Growing fatigue with Ottawa has bred active Separatist Parties in BC, Alberta,
Saskatchewan & Manitoba.
As a background profile to their first Yukon market
survey, Freddy Hutter of TrendLines has been active in politics since watching
the Trudeau leadership bid in 1968 and his Poli-Sci days at Univ of Waterloo
where he says socialism thrived. Due to his political savvy and pulse on public
opinion, he has in the past accepted invitations Outside to act as a resource
person and Board of Director for the NDP, Liberal, Reform and Reform-Ontario
Parties. That tradition continues and Hutter has been welcomed as a Director to
several Societies as well as the Conservative and Yukon Parties since his
arrival in November. When not in election mode, his career has included
research in the fields of global climate change with respect to long term solar
cycles and a unique presentation on the depletion of global oil reserves. He
does real estate analysis, real estate and business financing,
economic analysis, web design, and as a small business coach, is
a casual instructor of Entrepreneurship for First Nations at Yukon College. His
phone canvasser and soul mate is a former Solidarity activist, Evalina Zamana,
now a proud Canadian Citizen and a financial planner with a specialty in
Registered Education Savings Plans (RESP's). They moved to Judas Creek with
their Hungarian sheep dog, a Kuvasz named Topaz, from the BC's Sea-to-Sky
Corridor. Hutter hails from Kitchener-Waterloo and Woodstock while Zamana's
hometown is Bialystok, Poland.
Although this was
a random scientific poll, in a North American first, the survey results were
available to Respondents at the firm's website in real time over the thirty
day event. Shortly after hanging up, Respondents could go online and see running
graphs of the results. Commentary and a variety of other polls and graphs on a
variety of subjects are available at the firm's website,
www.TrendLines.ca
and Hutter may be contacted via
graphs@TrendLines.ca
for questions, comments or to contract their varied consultive services.
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