Sept Update

The Press Release (2005/11/18):

TrendLines September Poll Update: Arthur Mitchell Poised for Easy Win in Copperbelt

Judas Creek, YT - Included with today's release of the TrendLines September Political Survey is the earlier release of Wednesday's polling done in Copperbelt Riding indicating that Arthur Mitchell, leader of the Yukon Liberal Party, should have a majority of votes in Monday's By-Election. A rather small crowd attended the All-Candidates debate last nite. There was no clear winner or loser and only last minute aggressive radio and newspaper advertising by distant last place Cynthia Kearns of the Yukon Party may alter the expected numbers. Mitchell leads with 58%, Maureen Stephens of the NDP is steady at 31% and Kearns trails with 11%. The Liberal Party have held the lead in all polling of Copperbelt since their surveys began in late July.

Polling in the other 17 Electoral Districts shows only one lead change. Patrick Rouble of the Yukon Party has regained top spot indicating that had Premier Fentie called a General Election for September, his Yukon Party would have attained only six of their present 11 seats, resulting in a Minority NDP Gov't under Todd Hardy with 8 seats adding McIntyre-Takhini, Porter Creek North & Riverdale North to his tally. This indicates the defeat of Incumbents John Edzerza, Jim Kenyon & Speaker Ted Staffen respectively. Pat Duncan would have been joined by Arthur Mitchell, Sue Edelman in Riverdale South (an unofficial candidate) and a phantom winner in Porter Creek Centre; again indicating the defeat of Glenn Hart and Archie Lang. "The likely defeat of 4 sitting Cabinet Ministers translates to a gross distrust of the governing Party and we may see a Leadership Review at the Yukon Party's Spring AGM unless Dennis Fentie thwarts that movement by calling an early General Election. His mandate runs out in November 2006" commented Freddy Hutter, political analyst at TrendLines. Hutter has widely expressed disillusion with the strategies and aloofness employed by Fentie and was dismissed from the Yukon Party's Board of Directors on October 19th, less than 24 hours after his firm's Summer Poll was released to the CBC-North and posted on the firm's website. It named six Yukon Party Incumbents headed for certain defeat. Hutter had also cautioned in Press Releases and on his TrendLines blog that he would challenge Fentie for the Leadership himself if the demise of the Party was imminent.

Yukon Riding Projection

The greatest plurality in any one Riding is had by Premier Dennis Fentie in Watson Lake where he captured 79% of decided voters. Substantial leads are held by Eric Fairclough with 71%in Mayo-Tatchun and Lorraine Peter at 67% support in Vuntut Gwitchin. Most threatened Incumbents at this point are Glenn Hart of Riverdale South with only 17% and Jim Kenyon in Porter Creek North with 23%. John Edzerza in McIntyre-Takhini & Archie Lang in Porter Creek North are both vulnerable at 33% popular support levels. In 2002, Gary McRobb had highest individual support with 65% in Kluane.

Overall Territorial popular opinion does not mean much in the first-past-the-post electoral system, but for comparison sake and despite the potential loss of five Ridings, the Yukon Party is actually tied with the NDP at 35%. In September, the NDP gained 1% while the Liberals lost 1% of decided voters while a mere 1% desire as yet undeclared Independent candidates. Compared to the last election, and adjusting for the Independent component, this represents a loss of 6% for the Yukon Party, a loss of 2% for the Liberal Party and a net gain of 8% by the NDP. "Concentration of support is more important than the overall numbers" cautioned Hutter. "As a number cruncher, i must remind all that in the 2002 Election, the NDP were two per cent behind the Liberals in total votes cast on Election Day but in the end attained four more seats!"

On the Federal scene, while the most recent TrendLines Federal Riding Projection shows misfortune for the Liberals if a Canadian Election was held, with the Liberals losing 10 of their present seats, Yukon's Larry Bagnell will not likely be one of those defeated.

His support has actually risen 3% to 53% since TrendLines Summer survey. The Conservative Party lacks a candidate since Graham Lang resigned his position in July to return to law school. That Party now garners 23% support while the NDP are close at 21%.

TrendLines also has a running poll asking Yukoners whether they would agree to Secede from the rest of Canada with BC & Alberta. That number dropped 1% to 17% in September. Old Crow leads the break-away movement with 44% willing, followed by last month's hot spot for Separation, the Southern Lakes at 40% while Riverdale South is the least likely again at 5%.

Based on the 458 Yukoners that were randomly selected from the 75 Polling Divisions of the 18 Electoral Districts, this scientific survey and running average poll was conducted from July 25-Sept 30 2005 and has an Avg margin of error of 4.8% on the Secession Poll (incl 3% Undecided), the Federal Yukon Riding Poll (11% Undecided) & the YTG Popular Opinion Poll (7% Undecided); 23% for Copperbelt Riding (final tab based only on Nov 16 calls with 11% Undecided) and 20% avg for each of the other 17 individual YTG Electoral Districts (overall 7% Undecided) used in the Yukon Riding Projections, 19 times in 20. In running polls, new calls are added to the database whilst dropping the oldest. TrendLines, active in economic and political affairs since 1989, is renowned for its Federal Riding Projection that illustrates how many MP's each Party is likely to win if a Canadian General Election were called. Commentary, a new Blog and a variety of other polls and graphs on a variety of subjects are available at the firm's website, www.TrendLines.ca and Hutter may be contacted via graphs@TrendLines.ca for questions, comments or to contract their varied consultive services.

As background profile, Freddy Hutter of TrendLines has been active in politics since watching the Trudeau leadership bid in 1968 and his Poli-Sci days at Univ of Waterloo where he says socialism thrived. Due to his political savvy and pulse on public opinion, he has in the past accepted invitations to act as a resource person and Board of Director for the NDP, Liberal, Reform, Reform-Ontario Parties on the Outside. That tradition continues in the Yukon and Hutter has been welcomed as a Director to several Societies as well as the Conservative and Yukon Parties since his arrival last November. When not in election mode, his career has included research in the fields of global climate change with respect to long term solar cycles and a unique presentation of the depletion of global oil reserves. The TrendLines website had visitors from over 75 nations this Autumn. He does real estate analysis, real estate and business financing, economic analysis, web design, and as a small business coach, is a casual instructor of Entrepreneurship for First Nations at Yukon College. His phone canvasser and soul mate is former Solidarity activist, Evalina Zamana, now a proud Canadian Citizen and a financial planner with a specialty in Registered Education Savings Plans (RESP's). They moved to Judas Creek with their Hungarian sheep dog, a Kuvasz named Topaz, from the BC's Sea-to-Sky Corridor. Hutter hails from Kitchener-Waterloo and Woodstock while Zamana's hometown is Bialystok, Poland.
Copyright 2005.

contact:
Freddy Hutter, Political Analyst
TrendLines
867.660.5533
604.648.9473.fax
PO Box 45, Tagish YT Y0B1T0
graphs@TrendLines.ca

Send email to Freddy Hutter with questions or comments about this web site Copyright © 1989-2010 TrendLines Research ~ Last modified: August 25, 2010

Send email to Freddy Hutter with questions or comments about this web site
Copyright © 1989-2010 TrendLines Research ~ Last modified: August 25, 2010