Economics    politics

Beware ... the Lunatic Fringe

<  clik here for info re Freddy Hutter Live!

clik to follow us!

click for Google TRANSLATOR   ~ I'm pleased to relate to TrendLiners that this past Spring 66% of our visitors were International (115 nations:  most from USA, UK, Australia, France, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, India, Belgium & Ireland) ... much thanx!!   FreddyH>

Let's keep the site ad free ... please consider a donation!

  Archive of TrendLines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-1 Scenarios Archive - charts with text   (click or scroll for 2010  2009  2008  2007  2006  2005  2004)

 Scenarios Archive w/o text:  charts only for 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

Back to Current Scenarios

Peak Oil:  93-mbd in 2023

July 31 2010 ~ Below, this month's revision:  (a) updates Tier-1 Outlooks by our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200;  & (b) updates the Colin Campbell Depletion Model in the Invalidated Outlooks presentation.

We're pleased to report 2010 global production is on a pace that exceeds the 85.4-mbd annual record set in 2008.  Indeed a new quarterly record was already set in 2010Q1.  Monthly flow, which had slipped from its 86.7-mbd record of July 2008 record to only 83.2 (Jan-2009) at the depth of the Recession era, is poised for a new record in January.  See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction.  Historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future target prices (out to 2035) can be viewed via our Gas Pump & Barrel Meter charts.  See chart comparing our projections with long term Crude Oil Price Forecasts by Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, IHS, Jeff Rubin, Matt Simmons & theOilDrum.

Backgrounder

In 1972, the Club of Rome attempted to shock stakeholders and policy makers with its Limits to Growth study forecast of All Liquids Peak Oil:  117-mbd in 1995.  Their attempt at awareness that natural resources are finite and in jeopardy with a growing global population was underscored in 1974 with M K Hubbert's similar prediction:  111-mbd in 1995 (excl NGL, deep sea, polar, Orinoco & tar sands).

Because OPEC manipulation invalidated both these projections, Colin Campbell attempted to update the long term prospects for All Liquids.  The Irish geologist stunned many when in 1989 he declared that All Liquids flow (65.5mbd) would never again re-attain its 1979 pre-crisis Peak of 67-mbd (see all 3 charted).  Well, he was very wrong (86mbd today!).  This episode made it quite clear that the uncertainty & price volatility caused by such pessimistic reports (even by well-intentioned professionals) required addressing by the energy sector.

In that regard, we saw OECD's IEA, USA's EIA, OPEC and major IOCs step forward with their own annual & bi-annual long term projections in an attempt to set the record straight and stabilize the marketplace.  It didn't happen.  As the ranks of McPeaksters were swelled by a growing element from the lunatic fringe, their well-intentioned message was hijacked and discourse deteriorated to the realm of economic and social collapse as the world runs out of oil.  As the rhetoric escalated, we thought it would be constructive to provide a comparative platform for these opposing views of the future.

TrendLines Research has been analysing the world's very best All Liquids long term production profiles (and the not-so-good ones) since 2003.  Our database includes six decades of forecast studies.  A year later we commenced to share these results at our website.

Back in 2005, the 7-model Average indicated a 94-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 2.6-mbd/yr:  reduced from 41-mbd (Campbell 85 & CERA 126) in 2005 to today's 28-mbd (Husseini/Laherrère 86 & EIA-Sweetnam 114) spread.

Interested in who had the best forecast a dozen years ago?  Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

Today's Model Reviews:

We were very fortunate to coax Colin Campbell out of retirement to update his Depletion Model, but unfortunately did not secure a result sufficient to upgrade his scenario from the Invalidated Outlooks presentation back to Tier-1 status.

As a reminder, the Outlooks by Campbell, Kjell Aleklett & Jeff Rubin were all downgraded this March upon EIA's revelation that 2010 annual production is poised to surpass the 2008 record.  That was a dagger thru the heart for these three forecasters who last year had all bet the house on a 2008 Peak.

On opening Colin's email I was confidently anticipating an upward revision.  First, I noticed the URR for Regular Conventional Oil had been increased by 58-Gb to 1963 ... a career high!  Good start.  Second, Colin has extended the aggressive 2.5% decline rate for RCO past 2030 to 2050.  Ever the pessimist, eh.  Y'all can see our amended RCO comparisons below.

Then my reconciliations revealed that for some reason his All Liquids URR only got bumped 5-Gb higher (to 2,436-Gb) despite the RCO boost.  Perhaps some other stream (like BP Deep Sea projects) got whacked?  So where's the new target PO date?  Oh no ... still 2008!  And thus Colin Campbell is still quagmired with the other Invalidates.  Sorry to see this.  It makes no sense.

A favourite member of this 19-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200.  The only depletion model that publishes updates monthly, the current revision reflects three factors: (a) 6-Gb increase (Regular Conventional up 88-Gb, Kerogen down 70-Gb) in our URR estimate; (b) adjustment of 2050 target for UDRO to 4.4% from 4.7%; (c) introduction of a Peak Demand module; (d) reduction of new capacity future trend to 3.4-mbd from 3.5-mbd present trend.

The model concludes the onset of terminal production decline can be brought on by either (a) constraints in securing sufficient proven reserves, or (b) due to rising Underlying Decline Observed surpassing the trend of annual New Capacity installations.  PS-2200 pegs dates on these two events:  2061 & 2040 ... the latter establishing its 2039 Peak (98-mbd).

From 2004 to March 2009, PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model were the sole global models conducting monthly analysis of the narrowly defined Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude).  Upon Colin's withdrawal from retirement this month, PS-2200 again has an active and worthy adversary.  Their opposing views (see RCO chart) of light sweet crude's future path are proxies for the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps.

RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and production has been declining at a rapid 2.5%/yr.  Whereas Campbell foresees this rate of decline continuing unimpeded 'til 2050, resulting in a mere 20-mbd flow by 2030, PS-2200 projects a softer 1.5% after 2009 and 47-mbd flow in 2050.  An incredible spread, eh!

Hutter's contrary position is twofold based:  (a) rising surplus capacity in OPEC & Russia masked the apparent decline; & (b) the recent high Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) of 3.1% in 2008 was Recession-inspired, and EOR & Capacity development activities are driving down UDRO towards an ultimate 2.5% low in 2012.  Whether or not this year's RCO flow deteriorates or moderates makes 2010 the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.  And thus far this year, light sweet extraction exceeds 2009 flows by 0.5-mbd.

A module addressing the potential of Peak Demand has been added to Peak Scenario 2200 this month.  It can be best seen in our chart archive that the pre-peak slope reflects less annual growth than the 1-mbd trend of the past three decades.  Incremental annual Demand has been declining since its peak in 2003.  If the long term trend continues, Demand could conceivably cease to increase in 2018.  Using a less aggressive growth rate in this month version has had profound effect on the Peak Date, postponing it nine years to 2039.

In the end, the present projection for Peak was determined by UDRO exceeding the annual new capacity trend amid a deterioration of Demand ... but not an outright and arbitrary cessation of Demand.  The waning of Demand had a profound effect on Surplus Capacity.  Rather than reaching a max of 7.5-mbd in 2012 and exhausting in 2023, the first run of the Peak Demand module saw spare capacity burgeon to 8.6-mbd in 2026 & exhaust in 2040.

The results would have been even higher had not the future new capacity projection been trimmed to 3.4-mbd from its present 3.5-mbd trend.  Assuming our application of a UDRO that rises from 2.5-mbd in 2012 to 4.4% in 2050 is reasonable, it is plausible that the oil sector will pare back annual new capacity even further to avoid an overbuild in Capacity.  OTOH, should UDRO be under-estimated, the new capacity may be increased to maintain balance in the supply chain.

The Peak Scenario 2200 serves up a warning to policy makers to target their strategies for transition from gasoline/diesel transportation fuels at the 2061-2070 time frame.  This revised projection forecasts All Liquids production will commence a potentially catastrophic 2.9% decline rate in 2061 after a manageable post-peak rate of 0.7% per year.

The update further elaborates on its bold hypothesis that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) rises and falls with the American Recessions.  Confidence in this position is high with UDRO having just demonstrated this phenomenon for a sixth time since 1970.  It contends UDRO will next trough (2.5%) in 2012, and climb back to 3.6% during a probable 2017 Recession whilst on a journey to 4.4% by 2050.

The model estimates 76-mbd of the 119-mbd of All Liquids Capacity added since 1970 addressed Underlying Decline Observed, and 82-mbd of 89mbd needed to satisfy and maintain the 7-mbd rise in Capacity by 2035 will be for the purpose of addressing UDO.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams.  Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline Observed & the inherent flaws (and myths) incorporated within the McPeakster fraternity.

(July Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Further to the 19 Tier-1 models, we regularly track 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Oil projections & 11 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.  But, it is the Average of the 19 Tier-1 models that offers up the very best guidance, such as:

Future Extraction Rates:

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners is 3,903-Gb when we deduct from the nominal average the volume attributable to renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) as calculated by the Hutter PS-2200 model.  It estimates a cumulative 554-Gb BTL will have been produced thru to Year 2300.  This net economic resource number compares rather well to the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our 21-estimates URR Study with its slightly different mix of practitioners.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/12/31) to be 1229-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1077-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude) & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002.  Via the 19-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2034; then the third by Year 2074 (excl BTL).  Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in Year 2300 ... signifying the virtual exhaustion of fossil fuels.  From that juncture, only BTL sourced renewable liquids along with the last vestiges of CTL & GTL provide Supply.

Of the Tier-1 model contributors, the lowest URR tally is the 2,439-Gb used by Chris Skrebowski.  The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2023 93-mbd PEAK indicated by the 19-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2017 to 2032.  As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE.  Our first exercise in averaging, using seven models,  indicated a 94-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Depletion Scenarios' updates since 2005 have highlighted PEAK DATE "averages" ranging from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATE "averages" running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 models' Peak Date range from 2011 (Sadad Al Husseini & Jean Laherrère) to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

July's forecasts of Peak Rate range from 86-mbd (Sadad Al Husseini & Jean Laherrère) to EIA-Sweetnam's 114-mbd ... a difference of 28-mbd.

We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 2.6-mbd/yr.  Today's high-to-low spread of 28-mbd has been diminished from 41 (Campbell 85 & CERA 126) just five years ago.  While the pessimists have only upped their forecasts by 0.2-mbd/yr in that time frame, the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2.4-mbd/yr.  Trivia alert:  if this unholy methodology continues, by 2018 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a peak rate of "94"!

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Based on the 19-model avg, and excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,225-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 3,903-Gb avg URR reveals global Depletion of 32% (to 2009/12/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.8%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (2,672-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 1.1%/yr.

The consensus 2023 PEAK occurs at 40% Depletion.  The 50% crossover of the inferred URR avg will occur in 2032.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO).  It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum.  More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - appropriately the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO).  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status.  Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually.  This means that of the 119-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 76 served to address UDO & only 43-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 49 in 1969 to 92-mbd by year-end 2009.  The UDRO rises & falls with surges coinciding with the American economic Recessions.

CERA's 2009 study has determined that flow from currently in-place Capacity will deteriorate by only 31-mbd in the next 21 years.  In its recent WEO-2008, IEA presumes 45-mbd of new Capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030.  My own PS-2200 projects a figure of 64-mbd is more probable for plateau purposes.

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline;  often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate.  The TrendLines 19-model avg declines at 0.7% per annum measured from the 2023 Peak to Year 2050.  Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2201, it will average 1.3% annually.  It is a very manageable reality when compared to the most aggressive rate mathematically possible (4.9%) as illustrated in the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2012 (Sadad Al Husseini & Jean Laherrère) to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Production Decline Rates to exhaustion range from Hutter's 0.7%/yr to 4.2%/yr shared by both EU/WETO & Chris Skrebowski.

Peak Oil:  94-mbd in 2024

June 30 2010 ~ Below, this month's revision:  (a) updates Tier-1 Outlooks by IEA, Peter Wells & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.

We're pleased to report 2010 global production is on a pace that exceeds the 85.4-mbd annual record set in 2008.  Indeed a new quarterly record was set in 2010Q1.  Monthly flow, which had slipped from its 86.7-mbd record of July 2008 record to only 83.2 (Jan-2009) at the depth of the Recession era, is poised for a new record in January.  See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction.  Historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future target prices (out to 2035) can be viewed via our Gas Pump & Barrel Meter charts.  See chart comparing our projections with long term Crude Oil Price Forecasts by Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, IHS, Jeff Rubin, Matt Simmons & theOilDrum.

Backgrounder

In 1972, the Club of Rome attempted to shock stakeholders and policy makers with its Limits to Growth study forecast of All Liquids Peak Oil:  117-mbd in 1995.  Their attempt at awareness that natural resources are finite and in jeopardy with a growing global population was underscored in 1974 with M K Hubbert's similar prediction:  111-mbd in 1995 (excl NGL, deep sea, polar, Orinoco & tar sands).

Because OPEC manipulation invalidated both these projections, Colin Campbell attempted to update the long term prospects for All Liquids.  The Irish geologist stunned many when in 1989 he declared that All Liquids flow (65.5mbd) would never again re-attain its 1979 pre-crisis Peak of 67-mbd (see all 3 charted).  Well, he was very wrong (86mbd today!).  This episode made it quite clear that the uncertainty & price volatility caused by such pessimistic reports (even by well-intentioned professionals) required addressing by the energy sector.

In that regard, we saw OECD's IEA, USA's EIA, OPEC and major IOCs step forward with their own annual & bi-annual long term projections in an attempt to set the record straight and stabilize the marketplace.  It didn't happen.  As the ranks of McPeaksters were swelled by a growing element from the lunatic fringe, their well-intentioned message was hijacked and discourse deteriorated to the realm of economic and social collapse as the world runs out of oil.  As the rhetoric escalated, we thought it would be constructive to provide a comparative platform for these opposing views of the future.

TrendLines Research has been analyzing the world's very best All Liquids long term production profiles (and the not-so-good ones) since 2003.  Our database includes six decades of forecast studies.  A year later we commenced to share these results at our website.

Back in 2005, the 7-model Average indicated a 94-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 2.6-mbd/yr:  reduced from 41-mbd (Campbell 85 & CERA 126) in 2005 to today's 28-mbd (Husseini/Laherrère 86 & EIA-Sweetnam 114) spread.

Interested in who had the best forecast a dozen years ago?  Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

Today's Model Reviews:

IEA gave guidance on two fronts this month.  The MTOMR raised its 2015 signpost by 1-mbd to 92.  The Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 gives us the first look at mid-Century energy status under the Copenhagen aspirations.  After a 105 Peak in 2030, ETP projects 2050 flows will be a mere 74-mbd ... down from an inferred 95-mbd in WEO.

Renewables will comprise 40% of primary energy in 2050.  Electric power generation will include 48% renewables and 24% nuclear.

Middle East specialist Peter Wells has heavily slashed his 2020 peak:  from 2008's 101.5 estimate to only 93-mbd in this Spring's update, citing a 48-Gb cut to Saudi Arabia's URR (345-Gb).

A favourite member of this 19-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200.  The only depletion model that publishes updates monthly, the current revision reflects a single factor: (a) 75-Gb decrease (mostly Kerogen) of our URR estimate.

The model concludes the onset of terminal production decline can be brought on by either (a) constraints in securing sufficient proven reserves, or (b) due to rising Underlying Decline Observed surpassing the trend of annual New Capacity installations.  PS-2200 pegs dates on these two events:  2051 & 2031 ... the latter establishing its 2030 Peak (102-mbd).

From 2004 to March 2009, PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model were the sole global models conducting monthly analysis of the narrowly defined Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude).  Upon Colin's retirement last year, PS-2200 uniquely carries on that role.  Their opposing views (see RCO chart) of light sweet crude's future path is representative of the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps.

RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and production has been declining at a rapid 2.6%/yr.  Whereas Campbell foresaw this rate of decline continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, resulting in a mere 36-mbd flow by 2030, PS-2200 projects a softer 0.9% after 2009 and 55-mbd flow in 2030.  Hutter's contrary position is twofold based:  (a) rising surplus capacity in OPEC & Russia masked the apparent decline; & (b) the recent high Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) of 3.1% in 2008 was Recession-inspired, and EOR & Capacity development activities are driving down UDRO towards an ultimate 2.5% low in 2012.  Whether or not this year's RCC flow deteriorates or moderates makes 2010 the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.  And thus far, light sweet extraction exceeds 2009 flows by 0.6-mbd.

The Peak Scenario 2200 June Update proposes that policy makers must target their strategies for substitution of transportation fuels at the 2050-2065 time frame.  The revised projection forecasts All Liquids production will commence a potentially catastrophic 2.8% decline rate in 2050.  Underlying the plunge is RCC's entering a sea change R/P 10 environment typical to a petroleum province's final exhaustion phase.  At this juncture, with NGL's having peaked in 2043, non-conventionals meteoric rise can no longer offset RCC's demise.

The update further elaborates on its bold hypothesis that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) rises and falls with the American Recessions.  It contends UDRO has just demonstrated this phenomenon for a sixth time since 1970.  After troughing in 2012 as mentioned, UDRO should climb back to 3.5% during a probable 2017 Recession.  The model estimates 77-mbd of Capacity was added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 58-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams.  Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR linearization, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws (and myths) incorporated within McPeakster WAG's.

(June Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Further to the 19 Tier-1 models, 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 11 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.  But, it is the Average of the 19 Tier-1 models that reveals the very best guidance, such as:

Future Extraction Rates:

2008: 85.4-mbd
2009: 84.2
2010: 85.9  (pending)
2024:  94  (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2032: 92  (50% Extraction of URR)
2041: 85  (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 77
2060: 67  (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 55  ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 35
2110: 29  (100 yrs from today)
2200: 10   (flows limited to Bitumen/X-Heavy, GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300:  5-mbd  (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners is 3,897-Gb when we deduct from the nominal average the volume attributable to renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) as calculated by the Hutter PS-2200 model.  It estimates a cumulative 554-Gb of BTL thru to Year 2300.  This net economic resource number compares rather well to the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of practitioners.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/12/31) to be 1229-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1077-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet) & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002.  Via the 19-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2034; then the third by Year 2074 (excl BTL).  Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in Year 2300 ... signifying the virtual exhaustion of fossil fuels.  From that juncture, only BTL sourced renewable liquids and the last vestiges of CTL & GTL provide production.

Of the Tier-1 model contributors, the lowest URR tally is the 2,439-Gb used by Chris Skrebowski.  The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2024 94-mbd PEAK indicated by the 19-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2018 to 2032.  As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE.  Our first exercise in averaging, using seven models,  indicated a 94-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2005 have highlighted PEAK DATE "average" ranging from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATE "average" running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 models' Peak Date range from 2011 (Sadad Al Husseini & Jean Laherrère) to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

June's forecasts of Peak Rate range from 86-mbd (Sadad Al Husseini & Jean Laherrère) to EIA-Sweetnam's 114-mbd.

We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 2.6-mbd/yr.  Today's high-to-low spread of 28-mbd (Husseini/Laherrère 86 & EIA-Sweetnam 114) has been diminished from 41 (Campbell 85 & CERA 126) just five years ago.  While the pessimists have only upped their forecasts by 0.2-mbd/yr, the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2.5-mbd/yr (trivia alert:  if this unholy methodology continues, by 2018 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a Peak Rate of "94").

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Based on the 19-model avg, and excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,225-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 3,897-Gb avg URR reveals global Depletion of 31% (to 2009/12/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.8%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (2,672-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 1.1%/yr.

The consensus 2024 PEAK occurs at 44% Depletion.  The 50% crossover of the inferred URR avg will occur in 2032.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO).  It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum.  More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - appropriately the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO).  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status.  Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually.  This means that of the 119-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 77 served to address UDO & only 42-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 93-mbd today.  The UDRO rises and falls in surges coinciding with the American economic recessions.

CERA's 2009 study has determined that flow from currently in-place Capacity will deteriorate by only 31-mbd in the next 21 years.  In its recent WEO-2008, IEA presumes 45-mbd of new Capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030.  My own PS-2200 projects a figure of 58-mbd is more probable.

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline;  often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate.  The TrendLines 19-model avg declines at 0.7% per annum measured from the 2024 Peak to Year 2050.  Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2201, it will average 1.3% annually.  It is a very manageable reality when compared to the most aggressive rate mathematically possible (4.9%) as illustrated in the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2012 (Sadad Al Husseini & Jean Laherrère) to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Production Decline Rates to exhaustion range from OPEC's 1.0%/yr to 4.2%/yr shared by both EU/WETO & Chris Skrebowski.

Peak Oil:  94-mbd in 2024

May 31 2010 ~ Below, this month's revision:  (a) updates Tier-1 Outlooks by EIA, Jean Laherrère & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.

We're pleased to report 2010 global production is on a pace that exceeds the 85.5-mbd annual record set in 2008.  Indeed a new quarterly record was set in 2010Q1.  Monthly flow, which had slipped from its 86.7-mbd record of July 2008 record to only 83.2 (Jan-2009) at the depth of the Recession era, is poised for a new record next April.  See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction.  Historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future target prices (out to 2035) can be viewed via our Gas Pump & Barrel Meter charts.  A new chart compares our projections with long term Crude Oil Price Forecasts by Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, IHS, Jeff Rubin, Matt Simmons & theOilDrum.

Backgrounder

In 1972, the Club of Rome attempted to shock stakeholders and policy makers with its Limits to Growth study forecast of All Liquids Peak Oil:  117-mbd in 1995.  Their attempt at awareness that natural resources are finite and in jeopardy with a growing global population was underscored in 1974 with M K Hubbert's similar prediction:  111-mbd in 1995 (excl NGL, deep sea, polar, Orinoco & tar sands).

Because OPEC manipulation invalidated both these projections, Colin Campbell attempted to update the long term prospects for All Liquids.  The Irish geologist stunned many when in 1989 he declared that All Liquids flow (65.5mbd) would never again re-attain its 1979 pre-crisis Peak of 67-mbd (see all 3 charted).  Well, he was very wrong (86mbd today!).  This episode made it quite clear that the uncertainty & price volatility caused by such pessimistic reports (even by well-intentioned professionals) required addressing by the energy sector.

In that regard, we saw OECD's IEA, USA's EIA, OPEC and major IOCs step forward with their own annual & bi-annual long term projections in an attempt to set the record straight and stabilize the marketplace.  It didn't happen.  As the ranks of McPeaksters were swelled by a growing element from the lunatic fringe, their well-intentioned message was hijacked and discourse deteriorated to the realm of economic and social collapse as the world runs out of oil.  As the rhetoric escalated, we thought it would be constructive to provide a comparative platform for these opposing views of the future.

TrendLines Research has been analysing the world's very best All Liquids long term production profiles (and the not-so-good ones) since 2003.  Our database includes six decades of forecast studies.  A year later we commenced to share these results at our website.

Back in 2006, the 13-model Average indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr:  reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 28-mbd (Husseini 86 & EIA-Sweetnam 114) spread.

Interested in who had the best forecast a dozen years ago?  Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

Today's Model Reviews:

EIA updated its long term forecast via the IEO (Intl Energy Outlook) this month.  The Year 2035 milepost was trimmed 1-mbd to 111, and had the effect of paring its 2090 target 2-mbd to 114 ... the highest estimate of the tier-1 scenarios.    

Jean Laherrère conducted his second revision of 2010 and it is a major overhaul.  Chopping URR from 1,100-Gb to 2.9-Tb, it is his most pessimistic forecast ever and predicts an 86-mbd production peak in 2011.  This is down from 87 in 2014 (last month) & 88 in 2015 (Oct-2008 version).

Although this sentiment of an early and low Peak varies significantly from the 19-model avg, everyone must take it very seriously:  Laherrère holds the TrendLines Research title for best vintage projections for Year 2008, Year 2009 & is on pace for a 3-peat in Year 2010 with this 1997 effort.  These multiple record wins have earned him the "best overall forecaster" as well.  The Laherrère model was one of six included in our initial presentation chart way back in 2004.

A favourite member of this 19-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200.  The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects two factors: (a) 48-Gb decrease (Kerogen down) of our URR estimate & (b) target for 2050 Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) lowered to 4.7%.

The model concludes the onset of terminal production decline can be brought on by either (a) constraints in securing sufficient proven reserves, or (b) due to rising Underlying Decline Observed surpassing the trend of annual New Capacity installations.  PS-2200 pegs dates on these two events:  2052 & 2031 ... the latter establishing its 2030 Peak (102-mbd).

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only models with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil).  The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps.  RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.6%/yr.  Whereas Campbell foresees this rate of decline continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's contrary position is twofold based:  (a) the apparent rapid decline is actually a masking of reality due to rising surplus capacity; and (b) recent maximum Underlying Decline of 3.1% was Recession inspired and EOR/Reserve development activities will keep RCC flow in virtual plateau (-0.5%/yr) during the next two decades starting this year.  Whereas Campbell says RCC will decline to 36-mbd by 2030, Hutter has a target of 55.  Whether or not this year's RCC flow deteriorates or moderates makes 2010 the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.  And thus far, light sweet extraction exceeds 2009 flows!

The Peak Scenario 2200 May Update elaborates on its bold hypothesis that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) rises and falls with the American Recessions.  It contends UDRO has just demonstrated this phenomenon for a sixth time since 1970.  On cue, its most recent loss cycle peaked at 3.1% in 2008, and will trough at 2.5% in 2012, before climbing to 3.5% in a probable 2017 Recession.  The model estimates 77-mbd of Capacity was added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 58-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030.  The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 2009 finding of a 31-mbd requirement over the next 21 years.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams.  Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR linearization, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws (and myths) incorporated within McPeakster modeling.

(May Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Further to the 19 Tier-1 models, 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 11 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.  But, it is the Average of the 19 Tier-1 models that reveals the very best guidance, such as:

Future Extraction Rates:

2008: 85.5-mbd
2009: 84.2
2010: 85.6  (pending)
2024:  94  (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2032: 92  (50% Extraction of URR)
2042: 85  (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 78
2060: 68  (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 55  ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 36
2110: 30  (100 yrs from today)
2200:  9   (flows limited to Bitumen/X-Heavy, GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300:  5-mbd  (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners is 3,896-Gb when we deduct from the nominal average the volume attributable to renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) as calculated by the Hutter PS-2200 model.  It estimates a cumulative 554-Gb of BTL thru to Year 2300.  This net resource number compares rather well to the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of practitioners.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/12/31) to be 1229-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1077-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet) & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002.  Via the 19-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by Year 2073 (excl BTL).  Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in Year 2301 ... signifying the virtual exhaustion of fossil fuels.  From that juncture, only BTL sourced renewable liquids and the last vestiges of CTL & GTL provide production.

Of the Tier-1 model contributors, the lowest URR tally is the 2,439-Gb used by Chris Skrebowski.  The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2024 94-mbd PEAK indicated by the 19-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2018 to 2032.  As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE.  Our first exercise in averaging the (13) models indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted PEAK DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 model Peak Dates range from 2011 (Sadad Al Husseini & Jean Laherrère) to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

May's forecasts of Peak Rate range from 86-mbd (Sadad Al Husseini & Jean Laherrère) to EIA-Sweetnam's 114-mbd.

We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr.  Today's high-to-low spread of 28-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago.  Generally, the pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2-mbd/yr (trivia alert:  if this unholy methodology continues, by 2020 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a Peak Rate of "96").

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Based on the 19-model avg, and excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,225-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 3,896-Gb avg URR reveals global Depletion of 31% (to 2009/12/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.8%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (2,671-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 1.1%/yr.

The consensus 2024 PEAK occurs at 43% Depletion.  The 50% crossover of the inferred URR avg will occur in 2032.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO).  It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum.  More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - appropriately the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO).  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status.  Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually.  This means that of the 119-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 78 served to address UDO & only 41-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 92-mbd today.  The UDRO rises and falls in surges coinciding with the American economic recessions.

CERA's 2009 study has determined that flow from currently in-place Capacity will deteriorate by only 31-mbd in the next 21 years.  In its recent WEO-2008, IEA presumes 45-mbd of new Capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030.  My own PS-2200 projects a figure of 58-mbd is more probable.

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline;  often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate.  The TrendLines 19-model avg declines at 0.7% per annum measured from the 2024 Peak to Year 2050.  Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2189, it will average 1.4% annually.  It is a very manageable reality when compared to the most aggressive rate mathematically possible (4.9%) as illustrated in the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2012 (Sadad Al Husseini & Jean Laherrère) to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Decline Rates range from Hutter's 0.6%/yr to 4.2%/yr shared by both EU/WETO & Chris Skrebowski.

Peak Oil:  95-mbd in 2024

April 30 2010 ~ TrendLines Research monitors the major forecasts of peak oil depletion from around the globe.  The top 19 (and their average) are plotted on a graph and each month this Tier-1 presentation is posted to the website.  The remainder are plotted on a Tier-2 chart.  For purists, a third chart plots the only 4 forecasts of the narrow definition of Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet).  For posterity purposes, a final chart tracks the noteworthy historic but failed predictions since 1956.

Below, this month's revision:  (a) introduces a 19th model:  Turner-Mason Engineers; and (b) updates Tier-1 Outlooks by Jean Laherrère, PFC & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.

2010 global production is on a pace that exceeds the 85.4-mbd annual record set in 2008.  Monthly flow has been on a steady rebound since bottoming at 83.1-mbd in January 2009 (also the worst month of the USA Recession).  The sector is poised for a new quarterly record in 2010Q2 and the monthly record should fall in February 2011.  See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction.  Historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future target prices (out to 2035) can be viewed via our Gas Pump & Barrel Meter charts.  A new chart compares our projections with long term Crude Oil Price Forecasts by Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, IHS, Jeff Rubin, Matt Simmons & theOilDrum.

Backgrounder

In 1972, the Club of Rome attempted to shock stakeholders and policy makers with its Limits to Growth study forecast of All Liquids Peak Oil:  117-mbd in 1995.  Their attempt at awareness that natural resources are finite and in jeopardy with a growing global population was underscored in 1974 with M K Hubbert's similar prediction:  111-mbd in 1995 (excl NGL, deep sea, polar, Orinoco & tar sands).

Because OPEC manipulation invalidated both these projections, Colin Campbell attempted to update the long term prospects for All Liquids.  The Irish geologist stunned many when in 1989 he declared that All Liquids flow (65.5mbd) would never again re-attain its 1979 pre-crisis Peak of 67-mbd (see all 3 charted).  Well, he was very wrong (86mbd today!).  This episode made it quite clear that the uncertainty & price volatility caused by such pessimistic reports (even by well-intentioned professionals) required addressing by the energy sector.

In that regard, we saw OECD's IEA, USA's EIA, OPEC and major IOCs step forward with their own annual & bi-annual long term projections in an attempt to set the record straight and stabilize the marketplace.  It didn't happen.  As the ranks of McPeaksters were swelled by a growing element from the lunatic fringe, their well-intentioned message was hijacked and discourse deteriorated to the realm of economic and social collapse as the world runs out of oil.  As the rhetoric escalated, we thought it would be constructive to provide a comparative platform for these opposing views of the future.

TrendLines Research has been analysing the world's very best All Liquids long term production profiles (and the not-so-good ones) since 2003.  Our database includes five decades of forecast studies.  A year later we began publishing results to our website.

Back in 2006, the 13-model Avg indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr:  reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 30-mbd (Husseini 86 & EIA-Sweetnam 116) spread.

Interested in who had the best forecast ten years ago?  Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

Today's Model Reviews:

We're pleased to introduce a 19th model to our Tier-1 presentation today:  Turner, Mason & Company Consulting Engineers of Texas USA did the groundwork for an Energy Intelligence Publishing study of crude oil depletion.   Using an assumption of 1.8-Tb of reserves, it forecasts production will increase to 92-mbd by 2020.

Jean Laherrère has updated his 2008 study this month with a forecast 87-mbd production Peak in 2014 (formerly 88 in 2015).  Although this prediction of an early Peak varies significantly from the 19-model avg, everyone must take it very seriously:

Laherrère holds the TrendLines Research title for best vintage projections for Year 2008, Year 2009 & is on pace for a 3-peat in Year 2010 with this 1997 effort.  These multiple record wins have earned him the "best overall forecaster" as well.  The Laherrère model was one of six included in our initial presentation chart way back in 2004.

PFC unveiled it 2010 Outlook last month.  Foreseeing UDRO (Underlying Decline Rate Observed) rising to 6% by 2030, its new outlook revises down Peak to 104-mbd in 2024 (from 106 in 2022).

A favourite member of this 19-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200.  The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects two factors: (a) 71-Gb increase (X-Heavy up, Kerogen down) in our URR estimate & (b) target for 2050 Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) lowered to 4.3% per year.

The model concludes the onset of terminal production decline can be brought on by either (a) constraints in securing sufficient proven reserves, or (b) due to rising Underlying Decline Observed surpassing the trend of annual New Capacity installations.  PS-2200 pegs dates on these two events:  2051 & 2031 ... the latter establishing its 2030 Peak (103-mbd).

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only models with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil).  The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps.  RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.6%/yr.  Whereas Campbell foresees this rate of decline continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's position is that the rapid decline was Recession inspired and EOR/Reserve development activities will keep RCC flow in virtual plateau (-0.6%/yr) during the next two decades starting this year.  Whether or not this year's RCC flow deteriorates or moderates makes 2010 the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.

The Peak Scenario 2200 April Update elaborates on its bold hypothesis that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) rises and falls with the American Recessions.  It contends UDRO has just demonstrated this phenomenon for a sixth time since 1970.  On cue, its most recent loss cycle peaked at 3.1% in 2008, and will trough at 2.4% in 2012, before climbing to 3.5% in a probable 2017 Recession.  The model estimates 78-mbd of Capacity was added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 57-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030.  The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 2009 finding of a 31-mbd requirement over the next 21 years.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams.  Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR linearization, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws (and myths) incorporated within McPeakster modeling.

(April Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Further to the 19 Tier-1 models, 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 11 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.  But, it is the Average of the 19 Tier-1 models that reveals the very best guidance, such as:

Future Extraction Rates:

2008: 85.4-mbd
2009: 84.2
2010: 85.7  (pending)
2024:  95  (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2033: 93  (50% Extraction of URR)
2043: 86  (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 80
2060: 71  (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 58  ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 37
2110: 31  (100 yrs from today)
2200:  9   (flows limited to Bitumen/X-Heavy, GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300:  4-mbd  (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners is 3,994-Gb when we deduct from the nominal average the volume attributable to renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) as calculated by the Hutter PS-2200 model.  It attributes a cumulative 513-Gb of BTL thru to Year 2300.  This compares rather well to the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/12/31) to be 1229-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1077-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet) & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002.  Via the 19-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by Year 2071 (excl BTL).  Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in Year 2289 ... signifying exhaustion of fossil fuels.  From that juncture, only BTL sourced renewable liquids provide production.

Of the Tier-1 model contributors, the lowest URR tally is the 2,439-Gb used by Chris Skrebowski.  The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2024 95-mbd PEAK indicated by the 19-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2018 to 2032.  As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE.  Our first exercise in averaging the models (13) indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted PEAK DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 model Peak Dates range from Sadad Al Husseini's 2011 to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

April's forecasts of Peak Rate range from 86-mbd by Sadad Al Husseini to EIA-Sweetnam's 115.6-mbd.

We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr.  Today's high-to-low spread of 30-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago.  Generally, the pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2-mbd/yr.  (Trivia Alert:  this unholy methodology indicates that by 2020 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a Peak Rate of "96")

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Based on the 19-model avg, and excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,225-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 3,994-Gb avg URR reveals global Depletion of 31% (to 2009/12/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.8%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (2,769-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 1.1%/yr.

The consensus 2024 PEAK occurs at 43% Depletion.  The 50% crossover of the inferred URR avg will occur in 2033.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO).  It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum.  More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - appropriately the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO).  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status.  Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually.  This means that of the 119-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 79 served to address UDO & only 41-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 92-mbd today.  The UDRO rises and falls in surges coinciding with the American economic recessions.

CERA's 2009 study has determined that flow from currently in-place Capacity will deteriorate by only 31-mbd in the next 21 years.  In its recent WEO-2008, IEA presumes 45-mbd of new Capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030.  My own PS-2200 projects a figure of 57-mbd is more probable.

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline;  often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate.  The TrendLines 19-model avg declines at 0.6% per annum measured from the 2024 Peak to Year 2050.  Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2189, it will average 1.4% annually.  Compare this to the most aggressive rate mathematically possible (4.9%) for the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2012 by Sadad Al Husseini to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Decline Rates range from Hutter's 0.4%/yr to 4.2%/yr shared by both EU/WETO & Chris Skrebowski.

Peak Oil:  95-mbd in 2023

March 31 2010 ~ TrendLines Research monitors the forecasts of peak oil depletion from around the globe. The top 18 and their average are plotted on a graph and each month this Tier-1 presentation is posted to the website. The remainder are plotted on a Tier-2 chart. For purists, a third chart plots the only 4 forecasts of the narrow definition of Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet). For posterity purposes, a final chart tracks the noteworthy historic failed predictions since 1956. This media release comprises the highlights of a broader analysis & charts available at our website each month. Click here for an archive of releases since 2004. Click here for an archive of charts only since 2004.

Below, this month's revision:  (a) updates Tier-1 Outlooks by Pierre-René Bauquis & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200;  (b) downgrades Outlooks by Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell from Tier-1 to the Invalidated Scenarios Archive;  (c) updates the BP Outlook in Tier-2;  (d) introduces the ITPOES Outlook in the Tier-2 category;  (e) downgrades the Jeff Rubin Outlook from Tier-2 to the Invalidated Scenarios Archive.

2010 global production is on a pace that exceeds the 85.4-mbd annual record set in 2008.  Monthly flow has been on a steady rebound since bottoming at 83.1-mbd in January 2009 (also the worst month of the USA Recession).  The sector is poised for a new quarterly record in 2010Q4 and the monthly record should fall in January 2011.  See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction.  Historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future target prices (out to 2035) can be viewed via our Gas Pump & Barrel Meter charts.  A new chart compares our projections with long term Crude Oil Price Forecasts by Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, Jeff Rubin, Matt Simmons & theOilDrum.

Backgrounder

In 1972, the Club of Rome attempted to shock stakeholders and policy makers with its Limits to Growth study forecast of All Liquids Peak Oil:  117-mbd in 1995.  Their attempt at awareness that natural resources are finite and in jeopardy with a growing global population was underscored in 1974 with M K Hubbert's similar prediction:  111-mbd in 1995 (excl NGL, deep sea, polar, Orinoco & tar sands).

Because OPEC manipulation invalidated both these projections, Colin Campbell attempted to update the long term prospects for All Liquids.  The Irish geologist stunned many when in 1989 he declared that All Liquids flow (65.5mbd) would never again re-attain its 1979 pre-crisis Peak of 67-mbd (see all 3 charted).  Well, he was very wrong (86mbd today!).  This episode made it quite clear that the uncertainty & price volatility caused by such pessimistic reports (even by well-intentioned professionals) required addressing by the energy sector.

In that regard, we saw OECD's IEA, USA's EIA, OPEC and major IOCs step forward with their own annual & bi-annual long term projections in an attempt to set the record straight and stabilize the marketplace.  It didn't happen.  As the ranks of McPeaksters were swelled by a growing element from the lunatic fringe, their well-intentioned message was hijacked and discourse deteriorated to the realm of economic and social collapse as the world runs out of oil.  As the rhetoric escalated, we thought it would be constructive to provide a comparative platform for these opposing views of the future.

TrendLines Research has been analysing the world's very best All Liquids long term production profiles (and the not-so-good ones) since 2003.  Our database includes five decades of forecast studies.  A year later we began publishing results to our website.

Back in 2006, the 13-model Avg indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr:  reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 30-mbd (Husseini 86 & EIA-Sweetnam 116) spread.

Interested in who had the best forecast ten years ago?  Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

Today's Model Reviews:

In his third upward revision in three years, Pierre-René Bauquis has increased the Peak Rate of his 2020 target by almost 2-mbd to a baseline adjusted 102-mbd.

A favourite member of this 18-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200.  The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects only one factor:  (a) 65-Gb decrease (RCC & Kerogen) in our URR estimate.  A new "layer" chart has been introduced to give a second perspective of its components.

The model concludes the onset of terminal production decline can be brought on by either (a) constraints in securing sufficient proven reserves, or (b) due to rising Underlying Decline Observed surpassing the trend of annual New Capacity installations.  PS-2200 pegs dates on these two events:  2051 & 2031 ... the latter establishing its 2030 Peak (100-mbd).

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only models with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil).  The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps.  RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.5%.  Whereas Campbell foresees this rate continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's position is that the rapid decline was Recession inspired and EOR/Reserve development activities will keep RCC flow in virtual plateau (-0.4%/yr) during the next two decades starting this year.  Whether or not this year's RCC flow deteriorates or moderates makes 2010 the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.

The Peak Scenario 2200 March Update elaborates on its bold hypothesis that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) rises and falls with the American Recessions.  It contends UDRO has just demonstrated this phenomenon for a sixth time since 1970.  On cue, its most recent loss cycle peaked at 3.1% in 2008, and will trough at 2.5% in 2012, before climbing to 3.7% in a probable 2017 Recession.  The model estimates 79-mbd of Capacity was added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 59-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030.  The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 2009 finding of a 31-mbd requirement over the next 21 years.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams.  Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR linearization, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws (and myths) incorporated within McPeakster modeling.

As mentioned in the intro, 2010 global production is on a pace to set new quarterly and annual records.  To alleviate the skew caused by projections that have declared 2008 as Peak Year, the integrity of the average is being protected by downgrading the Outlooks by Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell from Tier-1 to the Invalidated Scenarios Archive.  Similarly, there's downgrade of the Jeff Rubin Outlook from Tier-2 to the Invalidated Scenarios Archive.

(March Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Over the years, we've been supportive of the IPCC Reports but have warned that the underlying science assumptions have at times been hijacked by political operatives within the scientific community assisting the UN.  Two of own efforts have been to present charting that exposes the junk science behind Gore-type rhetoric with respect to rapid sea level rise & the real available fossil fuel resource available for energy projections.

Another troubling event with respect to the discussion of peak oil occurred last month that mirrors such agenda-driven adventures.  The UK's ITPOES (Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil Energy Security) presented what we feel to be a very political conclusions that defy the science within its own supportive documents.

Because of the high publicity it received, the second report of the ITPOES is introduced today to our Tier-2 presentation.  It is relegated to Tier-2 because it chose not to include the projections of its own underlying forecast document (the Chris Skrebowski scenario in our February update) and instead suggests to the UK Gov't that "the world is imminently running out of oil".

In our February update, Skrebowski virtually admitted that the inherent fault in his bottom-up model is that it was in effect only a "worst case scenario" because it only recognized firm announced megaprojects.  It used a premise that the energy sector is unlikely to install any future facilities after its short horizon.  At ASPO-2005 his model was predicting a 2007 peak.  His model necessitated annual upward revisions as new projects were made public.  We applauded Chris (and other McPeaksters) who have in recent months adopted our own practice of applying a reasonable factor for future new capacity based on recent norms.

In the Skrebowski case, he now somewhat tackles this issue by assuming some new commissions will take place past 2015 ... but only to 2020.  A great first step, eh!  In the summary chart (pg 23 - figure 3.5 of his submission to ITPOES) he illustrates 2015-2020 production as an 89.5-mbd plateau.

Conversely, ITPOES describes his submission in its (pg 6) Executive Summary:  "The net flow rate data shows that increases in extraction will be slowing down in 2011-13 and dropping thereafter"  It goes on to present in its Taskforce View (chapter 6) a production projection chart (pg 39 fig 6.6 - footnoted to represent Skrebowski findings in Chapter 3) that ignores his 2014 92-mbd peak and instead imparts its own 2013 91-mbd production cap followed by an immediate 1% decline resulting in a mere 63-mbd rate by 2050.

ITPOES disturbingly misrepresents the new Skrebowski plateau methodology and presents its own unfounded dire forecast.  Agenda-based distortions of scientific data do not further the discussion ... instead these actions call upon stakeholders and policy makers to question their credibility and integrity.

BP has finally updated its stale dated 2004 projection with a long term outlook amending its peak to 99-mbd in 2030, up from 90 in 2015.  Elevation from Tier-2 status to Tier-1 is pending greater detail.  The BP model was included in our initial presentation chart way back in 2004.

With respect to the oil study by Kuwait University's College of Engineering & Petroleum (Nashawi et al) released this month, it joins a select few studies mentioned in the Footnotes below that unfortunately do not approach the definition of All Liquids.  Its 2008 production of 72-mbd includes RCC + some deep sea + some X-Heavy in Venezuela, but is substantially short of All Liquids 85-mbd tally for the year.

Further to the 18 Tier-1 models, 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 11 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.  But, it is the Average of the 18 Tier-1 models that reveals the very best guidance, such as:

Future Extraction Rates:

2008: 85.4-mbd
2009: 84.2
2010: 85.7  (pending)
2023:  95  (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2035: 92  (50% Extraction of URR)
2045: 85  (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 82
2060: 72  (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 60  ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 40
2110: 34  (100 yrs from today)
2200: 10   (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300:  4-mbd  (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners is 4,121-Gb when we deduct from the nominal average the volume attributable to renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) as calculated by the Hutter PS-2200 model.  It attributes a cumulative 512-Gb for BTL thru to Year 2300.  This compares quite well to the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/12/31) to be 1229-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1077-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet) & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002.  Via the 18-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by Year 2068 & fourth in Year 2119 (excl BTL).  Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in Year 2292 as it approaches exhaustion.

Of the Tier-1 model contributors, the lowest URR tally is the 2,439-Gb used by Chris Skrebowski.  The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2023 95-mbd PEAK indicated by the 18-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2018 to 2033.  As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE.  Our first exercise in averaging the models (13) indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted PEAK DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 model Peak Dates range from Sadad Al Husseini's 2011 to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

March's forecasts of Peak Rate range from 86-mbd by Sadad Al Husseini to EIA-Sweetnam's 115.6-mbd.

We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr.  Today's spread of 30-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago.  Generally, the pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2-mbd/yr.  (Trivia Alert:  this unholy methodology indicates that by 2020 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a Peak Rate of "96")

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,225-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,121-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 30% (to 2009/12/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.8%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (2,896-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 1.1%/yr.

Based on the 18-model Avg, the world's resource of 4,121-Gb is 30% depleted.  The 2023 PEAK occurs at 41% Depletion.  The 50% crossover of the URR Avg will occur in 2035.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO).  It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum.  More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - appropriately the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO).  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status.  Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually.  This means that of the 119-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 79 served to address UDO & only 40-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 91-mbd today.

CERA's 2009 study has determined that flow from currently in-place Capacity will deteriorate by only 31-mbd in the next 21 years.  In its recent WEO-2008, IEA presumes 45-mbd of new Capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030.  My own PS-2200 projects a figure of 57-mbd is more probable.

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline;  often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate.  The TrendLines 18-model Avg declines at 0.5% per annum measured from the 2023 Peak to Year 2050.  Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2196, it will average 1.3% annually.  Compare this to the most aggressive 4.9% rate mathematically possible for the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2012 by Sadad Al Husseini to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Decline Rates range from Hutter's 0.5%/yr to 4.2%/yr shared by both EU/WETO & Chris Skrebowski.

Peak Oil:  93-mbd in 2022

Marsh Lake, the Yukon Canada ~ Feb 28 2010 ~ This month's Tier-1 revision updates Outlooks by Chris Skrebowski & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.

The global annual production record of 85.4-mbd was set in 2008.  Monthly flow has been on the rebound since bottoming at 83-mbd in January 2009.  The sector is poised for a new quarterly record in 2010Q4, with the monthly record falling in January 2011.  See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction plus our historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future crude price.  The horizon of our Barrel Meter has been enhanced to illustrate 1yr, 5yr, 10yr & 25yr price targets; and a new chart compares our projections with long term Crude Oil Price Forecasts by Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, Jeff Rubin, Matt Simmons & theOilDrum.

In 1972, the Club of Rome attempted to shock stakeholders and policy makers with its Limits to Growth study forecast of All Liquids Peak Oil:  117-mbd in 1995.  Their attempt at awareness that natural resources are finite and in jeopardy with a growing global population was underscored in 1974 with M K Hubbert's similar prediction:  111-mbd in 1995 (excl NGL, deep sea, polar, Orinoco & tar sands).

Because OPEC manipulation invalidated both these projections, Colin Campbell attempted to update the long term prospects for All Liquids.  The Irish geologist stunned many when in 1989 he declared that All Liquids flow (65.5mbd) would never again re-attain its 1979 pre-crisis Peak of 67-mbd (see all 3 charted).  Well, he was very wrong (85mbd today).  This episode made it quite clear that the uncertainty & price volatility caused by such pessimistic reports (even by well-intentioned professionals) required addressing by the energy sector.

In that regard, we saw OECD's IEA, USA's EIA, OPEC and major IOCs step forward with their own annual & bi-annual long term projections in an attempt to set the record straight and stabilize the marketplace.  It didn't happen.  As the ranks of McPeaksters were swelled by a growing element from the lunatic fringe, their well-intentioned message was hijacked and discourse deteriorated to the realm of economic and social collapse as the world runs out of oil.  As the rhetoric escalated, we thought if would be constructive to provide a platform for these opposing views of the future.

TrendLines Research has been charting the world's very best All Liquids long term production profiles since 2004.  Back in 2006, the 13-model Avg indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr:  reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 30-mbd (Aleklett/Campbell 85.4 & EIA 115.6) spread.

Interested in who had the best forecast ten years ago?  Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

Model Reviews:

The founder of bottom-up methodology was Chris Skrebowski and his Megaprojects analysis.  A victim of its purism, annual upward revisions were required to update its Megaproject horizon.  It and similar efforts at theOilDrum were worst case scenarios that assumed that the oil sector would not add to announced-to-date installations.  Both now admit that the prospect of the industry to stop exploration and development is highly improbable; and have adopted the methodology of our own PS-2200 whereby the recent New Capacity trend is projected forward.  Unlike PS-2200's extrapolation of the trend rate out to 2050, Skrebowski continues new projects 'til 2020 at which time all work mysteriously stops.

Another premise haunting the Skrebowski Outlook is its position that the Underlying Decline Rate Observed started at zero in 2002 and increased incrementally each year ... 4.7% in 2009.  It makes no reference to the 51-mbd of megaprojects built from 1970 to 2002 over and above that needed to increase Demand.

In the end, his 2010 update establishes Peak @ 92-mbd in 2014 ... up 1-mbd and one year.

A favourite member of this 20-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200.  The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects two factors: (a) 40-Gb increase (RCC up, Kerogen down) in our URR estimate & (b) forecast allowance for Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) in 2050 decreased to 4. 5% per annum.

Cumulatively, these changes had no effect on the Peak.  Highlights include:

          The Peak:  100-mbd in 2030

          Post-Peak Production Decline Rate:  0.5%  ('til 2050)

The onset of Terminal Decline can be brought on by either constraints in securing proven reserves, or due to rising Underlying Decline surpassing the trend of annual New Capacity installations.  PS-2200 pegs dates on these two events:  2051 & 2031 - the latter establishing its 2030 Peak.

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only models with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil).  The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps.  RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.4%.  Whereas Campbell foresees this rate continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's position is that the rapid decline was Recession inspired and EOR/Reserve development activities will keep RCC flow in virtual plateau (-0.6%/yr) during the next two decades starting this year.  Whether this year's RCC flow deteriorates or moderates makes 2010 the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.

The Peak Scenario 2200 February Update continues the bold assumption that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) rises and falls with the American Recessions, and had in fact demonstrated this phenomenon for a sixth time since 1970.  Its last cycle peaked at 3.1% in 2008, and will trough at 2.5% in 2012, before climbing to 3.7% in a probable 2017 Recession.  The model estimates 79-mbd of Capacity was added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 58-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030.  The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 2009 finding of a 31-mbd requirement over the next 21 years.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams.  Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR linearization, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws incorporated within McPeakster modeling.

(February Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Further to the 20 Tier-1 models, 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 8 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.  But, it is the Average of the 20 Tier-1 models that reveals the very best guidance, such as:

Future Extraction Rates:

2008: 85.4-mbd
2009: 84.1
2010: 85.6  (pending)
2022:  93  (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2031: 91  (50% Extraction of URR)
2040: 85  (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 77
2060: 68  (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 55  ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 36
2110: 31  (100 yrs from today)
2200:  9   (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300:  4-mbd  (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners is 4,414-Gb.  Albeit impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) included in the Avg, we can infer some guidance available from the Hutter PS-2200:  it attributes a cumulative 512-Gb for BTL thru to Year 2300.  Deducting the the taint of BTL indicates a preferred net URR/EUR of 3,902-Gb.  This figure is quite close to the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/12/31) to be 1229-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1077-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002.  Via the 20-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by 2069 & fourth in 2153 (incl BTL).  Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in Year 2287 as it approaches exhaustion.

Of the model contributors, the lowest tally is the 2,425-Gb used by both Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell.  The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2022 93-mbd PEAK indicated by the 20-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2017 to 2031.  As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE.  Our first exercise in averaging the models (13) indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted PEAK DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 model Peak Dates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's stern position that 2008 will prove to be Peak, to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

February's forecasts of Peak Rate range from the joint position by Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett that the 85.4-mbd (2008) will never be surpassed, to EIA's 115.6-mbd (2090).

We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr.  Today's spread of 30-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago.  Generally, the pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2-mbd/yr.  (Trivia Alert:  this unholy methodology indicates that by 2020 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a Peak Rate of "96")

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,225-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 3.902-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 31% (to 2009/12/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.8%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (2,677-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 1.2%/yr.

Based on the 20-model Avg, the 2022 PEAK occurs at 42% Depletion.  The 50% crossover of the URR Avg will occur in 2031.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO).  It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum.  More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - appropriately the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO).  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status.  Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually.  This means that of the 119-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 79 served to address UDO & only 40-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 91-mbd today.

CERA's 2009 study has determined that flow from currently in-place Capacity will deteriorate by only 31-mbd in the next 21 years.  In its recent WEO-2008, IEA presumes 45-mbd of new Capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030.  My own PS-2200 projects a figure of 58-mbd is more probable.

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline;  often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate.  The TrendLines 20-model Avg declines at 0.7% per annum measured from the 2022 Peak to Year 2050.  Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2182, it will average 1.4% annually.  Compare this to the most aggressive 4.8% rate possible for the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2009 by Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Decline Rates range from Hutter's 0.5%/yr to 4.2%/yr by EU/WETO & Chris Skrebowski.

Peak Oil:  92-mbd in 2022

Marsh Lake, the Yukon Canada ~ Jan 31 2010 ~ This month's Tier-1 revision introduces the Richard Miller Outlook  & updates our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.

The global annual production record of 85.4-mbd was set in 2008.  Monthly flow has been on the rebound since bottoming at 83-mbd in January 2009.  The sector is poised for a new quarterly record in 2010Q4, with the monthly record falling in January 2011.  See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction plus our historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future crude price.  The horizon of our Barrel Meter has been enhanced to illustrate 1yr, 5yr, 10yr & 25yr price targets; and a new chart compares our projections with long term Crude Oil Price Forecasts by Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, Jeff Rubin, Matt Simmons & theOilDrum.

In 1972, the Club of Rome attempted to shock stakeholders and policy makers with its Limits to Growth study forecast of All Liquids Peak Oil:  117-mbd in 1995.  Their attempt at awareness that natural resources are finite and in jeopardy with a growing global population was underscored in 1974 with M K Hubbert's similar prediction:  111-mbd in 1995 (excl NGL, deep sea, polar, Orinoco & tar sands).

With OPEC manipulation invalidating these projections, Colin Campbell attempted to update the long term prospects for oil.  The Irish geologist stunned many when in 1989 he declared that All Liquids flow (65.5mbd) would never again re-attain its 1979 pre-crisis Peak of 67-mbd (see all 3).  Well, the record was indeed obviously smashed (85mbd today), but the uncertainty & price volatility caused by such pessimistic views by well-intentioned professionals required addressing by the energy sector.

In that regard, we saw OECD's IEA, USA's EIA, OPEC and major IOCs step forward with their own annual long term projections in an attempt to set the record straight and stabilize the marketplace.  It didn't happen.  As the ranks of McPeaksters were swelled by a growing element from the lunatic fringe, their well-intentioned message was hijacked and discourse deteriorated to the realm of economic and social collapse as the world runs out of oil.  As the rhetoric escalated, we thought if would be constructive to provide a platform for these opposing views of the future.

TrendLines Research has been charting the world's very best All Liquids long term production profiles since 2004.  Back in 2006, the 13-model Avg indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr:  reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 30-mbd (Aleklett/Campbell 85.4 & EIA 115.6) spread.

Interested in who had the best forecast ten years ago?  Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

Model Reviews:

We're pleased to introduce an Outlook by Richard Miller of BP to our Tier-1 family.  He's been producing annual projections since 2001, but they were deficient for our purposes 'cuz they excluded NGL, CTL, Bitumen & BTL.  The UKERC has assisted Miller in rebasing his work, and the outcome is a profile with a 97-mbd Peak in 2015 built on a 2800-Gb foundation and sporting a 3.4% post-peak decline.  

A favourite member of this 20-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200.  The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects two factors: (a) 77-Gb decrease (Kerogen) in our URR estimate & (b) forecast allowance for Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) in 2050 decreased to 5% per annum.

Cumulatively, these changes decrease slightly the Peak Rate and accelerate Peak Date.  Highlights include:

          The Peak:  100-mbd in 2030

          Post-Peak Production Decline Rate:  1.7%  ('til 2050)

The onset of Terminal Decline can be brought on by either constraints in securing proven reserves, or due to rising Underlying Decline surpassing the trend of annual New Capacity installations.  PS-2200 pegs dates on these two events:  2045 & 2031 - the latter establishing its 2030 Peak.

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only models with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil).  The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps.  RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.4%.  Whereas Campbell foresees that rate continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's position is that EOR & Reserve development activities will keep RCC flow in virtual plateau (-0.6%/yr) for those two decades.  Whether this year's RCC flow deteriorates or moderates makes 2010 the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.

The Peak Scenario 2200 January Update indicates that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO), which rises and falls with the American Recessions has demonstrated this phenomenon for a sixth time since 1970.  Its final cycle peaked at 3.1% in 2008, and dwindled to 2.7% last year.  The model estimates 78-Gb of Capacity was been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 60-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030.  The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 2009 finding of a 31-mbd requirement over the next 21 years.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams.  Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR linearization, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws incorporated within McPeakster modeling.

(January Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Further to the 20 Tier-1 models, 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 8 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.  But, it is the Average of the 20 Tier-1 models that reveals the very best guidance, such as:

Future Extraction Rates:

2008: 85.4-mbd
2009: 84.2
2010: 85.6  (pending)
2022:  92  (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2039: 86  (50% Extraction of URR)
2040: 85  (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 77
2060: 68  (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 55  ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 36
2110: 36  (100 yrs from today)
2200:  9   (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300:  4-mbd  (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners is 4,415-Gb.  Albeit impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) included in the Avg, we can infer some guidance available from the Hutter PS-2200:  it attributes a cumulative 512-Gb for BTL thru to Year 2300.  Without doubt, the taint of BTL causes the Avg to be much higher than the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study, with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/12/31) to be 1229-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1077-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002.  Via the 20-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by 2069 & fourth in 2153.  Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in Year 2287 as it approaches exhaustion.

Of the model contributors, the lowest tally is the 2,425-Gb used by both Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell.  The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2022 92-mbd PEAK indicated by the 20-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2016 to 2032.  As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE.  Our first exercise in averaging the models (13) indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 model Peak Dates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's stern position that 2008 will prove to be Peak, to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

December's Tier-1 forecasts of Peak Rate range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's position that the 85.4-mbd (2008) will never be surpassed, to EIA's 115.6-mbd (2090).

We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr.  Today's spread of 30-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago.  Generally, the pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2-mbd/yr.  (Trivia Alert:  this unholy methodology indicates that by 2020 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a Peak Rate of "96")

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,225-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,415-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 28% (to 2009/12/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3,190-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Based on the 20-model Avg, the 2022 PEAK occurs at 38% Depletion.  The 50% crossover of the URR Avg will occur in 2039.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO).  It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum.  More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - appropriately the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO).  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status.  Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually.  This means that of the 119-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 78 served to address UDO & only 41-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 92-mbd today.

CERA's 2009 study has determined that flow from currently in-place Capacity will deteriorate by only 31-mbd in the next 21 years.  In its recent WEO-2008, IEA presumes 45-mbd of new Capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030.  My own PS-2200 projects a figure of 60-mbd is more probable. 

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline;  often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate.  The TrendLines 20-model Avg declines at 0.7% per annum measured from the 2022 Peak to Year 2050.  Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2182, it will average 1.4% annually.  Compare this to the most aggressive 4.6% rate for the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2009 by Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Decline Rates range from Hutter's 0.8%/yr to EU/WETO's 4.2%/yr.

Peak Oil:  93-mbd in 2024

Marsh Lake, the Yukon Canada ~ Dec 31 2009 ~ This month's Tier-1 revision updates Outlooks by EIA, ExxonMobil & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.

Looking back, who had the best forecast ten years ago?  Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

A new Annual Production Record of 85.4-mbd was set in 2008.  But, with four G-20 Nations still in Recession, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a reduced 84.2-mbd (down 1.2) pace thru Nov 30th.  Conversely, with November being only 1.2-mbd shy of the July/2008 monthly record, it appears that the sector is poised for a new quarterly record in 2010Q4, with the monthly record falling in January 2011.  See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction plus our historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future crude price.

Our Barrel Meter has been enhanced to illustrate 1yr, 5yr, 10yr & 25yr price targets; and a new chart compares our projections with long term Crude Oil Price Forecasts by Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, Jeff Rubin, Matt Simmons & theOilDrum.

TrendLines Research has been charting the world's very best All Liquids long term production profiles since 2004.  In 2006, the 13-model Avg indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3.0-mbd/yr:  reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 30-mbd (Aleklett/Campbell 85.4 & EIA 115.6) spread.

Further to the 19 Tier-1 models, 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 8 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.

But, it is the Average of the 19 Tier-1 models that reveals many very useful factoids:

Peak Oil:  93-mbd in 2024

Post Peak Production Avg Annual Decline Rate to 2050:  0.7%

Global URR/EUR:  4,504-Gb

Global Depletion:  27%

Annual Gross Depletion Rate:  0.7%/yr  (Net Rate:  0.9%/yr)

The year flow breaches 2009 level of 84-mbd:  2043

The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted:  2040

       Future Extraction Rates:

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.4
2009: 84.2  (year-to-date)
2024:  93  (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2040: 86  (50% Extraction of URR)
2043: 84  (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 78
2059: 70  (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 57  ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 38
2109: 33  (100 yrs from today)
2200:  9   (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300:  4-mbd  (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

Model Reviews:

Our first model review today is the EIA's AEO-2010.  The decrease in its 2030 milepost was less than 1-mbd, but more importantly, it provides better horizon visibility with their premièring of a 2035 marker ... initially 112-mbd.  As usual, we have married this update to their Sweetnam long term scenario with its 116-mbd peak in 2090.  Sans BTL, EIA foresees the exhaustion of non-conventional liquids in Year 2318.

Also this month, ExxonMobil released its 2009 update with a 104-mbd target for 2030, a clipping of 4-mbd from last year's study.  Notably, recalculations by ExxonMobil project that renewable fuels (excl hydro) will provide only 2.5% of total energy in 2030.

(December Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

A favourite member of this 19-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200.  The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects five factors: (a) 28-Gb decrease (Kerogen) in our URR estimate; (b) annual new Capacity trend stymied by resource constraints after Year 2043; (c) annual new capacity trend trimmed to 3.5-mbd/yr; (d) allowance for Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) by 2050 decreased to 7% per annum & (e) enhancement of Recession pauses in 2017 & 2026.

Cumulatively, these revisions decrease slightly the Peak Rate.  Highlights include:

The Peak:  105-mbd in 2030

Underlying Decline Rate Observed:  2.8% 1970-2009 Avg, 2.9% (2009) & 7% by 2050

Post-peak Production Avg Decline Rate to 2050:  2.2%

URR/EUR:  7.7-Tb

The year 50% of URR/EUR consumed:  2110

The year flow breaches 2009 levels:  2046

The onset of Terminal Decline can be brought on by either constraints in securing proven reserves, or due to rising Underlying Decline surpassing the trend of annual New Capacity installations.  PS-2200 pegs dates on these two events:  2044 & 2031 - the latter establishing its 2030 Peak.

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only models with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil).  The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps.  RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.4%.  Whereas Campbell foresees that rate continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's position is that EOR & Reserve development activities will keep RCC flow in virtual plateau (-0.3%/yr) from today to 2035.  Whether next year's RCC flow deteriorates or moderates makes 2010 the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.

The Peak Scenario 2200 December Update indicates that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) highest loss rate (6.3%) occurred in 1984, but moderated to a recent low of 1.6% in 2003.  The model estimates 81-Gb of Capacity has been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 54-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030.  The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 2009 finding of a 31-mbd requirement over the next 21 years.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams.  Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws incorporated within McPeakster modeling.

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners is 4,504-Gb.  Albeit impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) included in the Avg, we can infer some guidance available from the Hutter PS-2200:  it attributes a cumulative 512-Gb for BTL thru to Year 2300.  Without doubt, the taint of BTL causes the Avg to be much higher than the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study, with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/12/31) to be 1229-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1077-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002.  Via the 19-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by 2068 & fourth in 2143.  Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in Year 2289 as it approaches exhaustion.

Of the model contributors, the lowest tally is the 2,425-Gb used by both Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell.  The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2024 93-mbd PEAK indicated by the 19-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2018 to 2033.  As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE.  Our first exercise in averaging the models (13) indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030;  and we have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 model Peak Dates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's stern position that 2008 will prove to be Peak, to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

December's Tier-1 forecasts of Peak Rate range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's position that the 85.4-mbd (2008) will never be surpassed, to EIA's 115.6-mbd (2090).  We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr.  Today's spread of 30-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago.  Generally, the pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 3-mbd/yr.  (Trivia Alert:  this unholy methodology indicates that by 2016 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a Peak Rate of "92")

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,225-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,504-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 27% (to 2009/12/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3,290-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Based on the 19-model Avg, the 2024 PEAK occurs at 43% Depletion.  The 50% crossover of the URR Avg will occur in 2040.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO).  It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum.  More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - appropriately the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO).  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status.  Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.8% annually.  This means that of the 120-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 81 served to address UDO & only 39-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 90-mbd today.

CERA's 2009 study has determined that flow from currently in-place Capacity will deteriorate by only 31-mbd in the next 21 years.  In its recent WEO-2008, IEA presumes 45-mbd of new Capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030.  My own PS-2200 projects a figure of 54-mbd is more probable. 

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline;  often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate.  The TrendLines 19-model Avg declines at 0.7% per annum measured from the 2024 Peak to Year 2050.  Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2189, it will average 1.4% annually.  Compare this to the most aggressive 4.6% rate for the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2009 by Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Decline Rates range from Hutter's 0.8%/yr to EU/WETO's 4.2%/yr.

Peak Oil:  93-mbd in 2026

Marsh Lake, the Yukon Canada ~ Nov 30 2009 ~ This month's Tier-1 revision updates Outlooks by CERA, IEA, Aleklett & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.

Who had the best forecast ten years ago?  Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

A new Annual Production Record of 85.4-mbd was set in 2008.  But, with four G-20 Nations still in Recession, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a reduced 84.2-mbd (down 1.2) pace thru Oct 31st.  With October 1.8-mbd shy of the (July/2008) monthly record, it appears that a new quarterly record is postponed 'til 2010Q4.  See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction plus our historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future price targets.

TrendLines Research has been charting the world's very best All Liquids production profiles since 2004.  In 2006, the 13-model Avg indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 5.2-mbd/yr:  reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 27-mbd (Aleklett/Campbell 85.4 & CERA 112.8) spread.

Further to the 19 Tier-1 models, 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 8 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.

But, it is the Average of the 19 Tier-1 models that reveals many very useful factoids:

Peak Oil:  93-mbd in 2026

Post Peak Production Avg Annual Decline Rate to 2050:  0.8%

Global URR/EUR:  4,509-Gb

Global Depletion:  27%

Annual Gross Depletion Rate:  0.7%/yr  (Net Rate:  0.9%/yr)

The year flow breaches 2009 level of 84-mbd:  2043

The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted:  2041

       Future Extraction Rates:

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.4
2009: 84.2  (year-to-date)
2026:  93  (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2041: 85  (50% Extraction of URR)
2043: 83  (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 77
2059: 70  (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 57  ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 37
2109: 32  (100 yrs from today)
2200:  9   (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300:  4-mbd  (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

Model Reviews:

Our first model review today is a CERA update authored by Peter Jackson.  In a clarification of our depiction of their 2009 revision posted in August, we are trimming the 2035 Peak to 112.8-mbd from 114.  This continues a downtrend that started from 128 back in 2004.

In a quite surprising turn of events, its forecast Underlying Decline Rate for the 2009-2030 time frame has been pared back to 1.5% (from 2.1% in 2008).  This almost guarantees that we can look forward to substantial downward revisions in later versions.  OTOH, Jackson has addressed many of the peeves within the McPeakster fraternity, which should in turn cause upward revisions in their studies.

During the past month the IEA was inundated with politically motivated attacks on its World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2009 update.  The pre-emptive move by McPeaksters around the globe started a full week before the release when it was found that IEA was taking the unconventional move of addressing its long term target in an odd numbered year in an effort to set the record straight on its Peak Oil position.

Last year, its 107-mbd 2030 Peak Rate announcement was hijacked by a contrived disinformation campaign by McPeaksters who twisted statements by IEA officials on narrowly defined Conventional crude components to give the impression that IEA expected Peak Oil prior to 2020.  Similarly, McPeaksters maligned IEA's long term study on Underlying Decline Rate Observed which projected a 1.9% loss rate for All Liquids over the next 23 years by disseminating reports again referring only to a sub-category figure of 6.7%.

This month's WEO Peak Rate trims 3-mbd from its 2008 effort, and is down 17 from its 2004 high of 121-mbd.  As seen in our chart, its 104-mbd target for 2030 is but the 8th highest of the 19 models.  IEA is today clearly within consensus territory as its 2030 flow level mirrors forecasts by EIA, OPEC, ExxonMobil and our own PS-2200.  The campaign to discredit its geologists is plainly meritless.

In his latest update, Kjell Aleklett and his Uppsala University team make the admission that both they and Colin Campbell have miscalculated their downgrade of past and future NGL flows.  They have found that EIA already adjusted NGL stats to compensate for its lower BTU properties.  Thus by discounting EIA figures by a further 25%, Campbell & Aleklett have in fact double counted the BTU shortfall, thereby validating the approx 3-mbd that we added to both their projections earlier this year.

Aleklett maintains his premise that Peak Oil occurred in 2008, and has downgraded his 2030 target to 77 from 80-mbd.

(November Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

A favourite member of this 19-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200.  The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects four major factors: (a) 103-Gb decrease (Kerogen) in our URR estimate; (b) annual new Capacity trend stymied by resource constraints after Year 2042; (c) annual new capacity trend trimmed to 3.7-mbd/yr & (d) 2050 target for Underlying Decline Rate Observed raised to 9% per annum.

Cumulatively, these revisions increase slightly the Peak Rate.  Highlights include:

The Peak:  106-mbd in 2030

Underlying Decline Rate Observed:  2.8% 1970-2009 Avg, 3.0% (2009) & 9% by 2050

Post-peak Production Avg Decline Rate to 2050:  2.4%

URR/EUR:  7.8-Tb

The year 50% of URR/EUR consumed:  2108

The year flow breaches 2009 levels:  2045

The onset of Terminal Decline can be brought on by either constraints in securing proven reserves, or due to rising Underlying Decline surpassing the trend of annual New Capacity installations.  PS-2200 pegs dates on these two events:  2041 & 2031 - the latter establishing its 2030 Peak.

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only models with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil).  The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps.  RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.4%.  Whereas Campbell foresees that rate continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's position is that EOR & Reserve development activities will keep RCC flow in virtual plateau (-0.3%) from today to 2033.  Whether next year's RCC flow deteriorates or moderates makes 2010 the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.

The Peak Scenario 2200 November Update indicates that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) highest loss rate (6.3%) occurred in 1984, but moderated to a recent low of 1.6% in 2003.  The model estimates 81-Gb of Capacity has been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 56-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030.  The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 2009 finding of a 31-mbd requirement over the next 21 years.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams.  Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws incorporated within McPeakster modeling.

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners was steady with this month's version at 4,509-Gb.  Albeit impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) included in the Avg, we can infer some guidance available from the Hutter PS-2200:  it attributes a cumulative 563-Gb for BTL thru to Year 2300.  Without doubt, the taint of BTL causes the Avg to be much higher than the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study, with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/10/31) to be 1224-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1073-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002.  The second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by 2068 & fourth in 2145.  Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in 2293 as it approaches exhaustion.

Of the model contributors, the lowest tally is the 2,425-Gb used by both Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell.  The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2026 93-mbd PEAK indicated by the 19-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2018 to 2033.  As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE.  Our first exercise in averaging the models (13) indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030.  We have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 model Peak Dates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's stern position that 2008 will prove to be Peak, to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

October's Tier-1 forecasts of Peak Rate range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's position that the 85.4-mbd (2008) will not be surpassed to CERA's 112.8-mbd (2035).  We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 5.2-mbd/yr.  Today's spread of 27-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago.  Generally, the pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 3-mbd/yr.  (Trivia Alert:  this unholy methodology indicates that by 2016 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a Peak Rate of "92")

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Excluding BTL, the 1,220-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,509-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 27% (to 2009/10/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3,290-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Based on the 19-model Avg, the 2026 PEAK occurs at 43% Depletion.  The 50% crossover of the URR Avg will occur in 2041.  Gross past production includes 4-Gb BTL.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO).  It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum.  More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) is appropriate.  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status.  Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.8% annually.  This means that of the 120-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 81 served to address UDO & only 39-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 90-mbd today. 

CERA's 2009 study has determined that flow from currently in-place Capacity will deteriorate by 31-mbd in the next 21 years.  In its recent WEO-2008, IEA presumes only 45-mbd of new Capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030.  My own PS-2200 projects a figure of 56-mbd is more appropriate. 

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline;  often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate.  The TrendLines 19-model Avg declines at 0.8% per annum measured from the 2026 Peak to Year 2050.  Alternatively, when calculated 2026 PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2187, it will average 1.4% annually.  This compares to the more aggressive 4.6% rate for the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2009 by Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Decline Rates range from OPEC's 1.0%/yr to EU/WETO's 4.2%/yr.

Peak Oil:  93-mbd in 2026

Marsh Lake, the Yukon Canada ~ Oct 31 2009 ~ (rev 2009/11/4)  This month's Tier-1 revision updates Outlooks by OPEC & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.  The Outlook by Rembrandt Koppelaar has been downgraded to Tier-2 once again.

Who had the best forecast ten years ago?  Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

A new Annual Production Record of 85.4-mbd was set in 2008.  But, with 6 G-20 Nations still in Recessions, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a reduced 84.0-mbd pace thru Sept 30th.  That's 2.6-mbd below the monthly record of 86.6-mbd set in July 2008.  See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction plus our historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future price targets.

TrendLines Research has been charting the world's very best All Liquids production profiles since 2004.  In 2006, the 13-model Avg indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by 3.8-mbd/yr:  reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 29-mbd (Aleklett/Campbell 85.4 & CERA 114.5) spread.

Further to the 19 Tier-1 models, 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 8 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.

But, it is the Average of the 19 Tier-1 models that reveals many very useful factoids:

Peak Oil:  93-mbd in 2026

Post Peak Production Annual Decline Rate:  0.8%  (measured to 2050)

Global URR/EUR:  4,510-Gb  (consumed to 2009/10/31:  1224-Gb incl 4Gb BTL)

Global Depletion:  27%

Annual Gross Depletion Rate:  0.7%/yr  (Net Rate:  0.9%/yr)

The year flow breaches 5-mbd:  2293

       Future Extraction Rates:

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.4
2009: 83.6  (year-to-date)
2026:  93  (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2040: 87  (50% Extraction of URR)
2044: 83  (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 78
2059: 70  (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 57  ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 37
2109: 32  (100 yrs from today)
2200:  9   (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300:  4-mbd  (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

Model Reviews:

Our first model review today is the 2009 OPEC World Oil Outlook.  Formerly our 2nd highest projection, its 106-mbd Peak Rate is down 8-mbd from last year.  One of the most comprehensive practitioners in Tier-1, they have trimmed 550-Gb from their URR ... a common trend in this new sub $80/barrel environment, as compared to 2008.

A favourite member of this 19-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200.  The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects three major factors: (a) 8-Gb increase (Regular Conventional) in our URR estimate; (b) annual new Capacity trend stymied by resource constraints after Year 2040; & (c) allowance for Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) by 2050 raised to 7% per annum.

Cumulatively, these revisions have accelerated Peak Date by five years.  Highlights include:

The Peak:  105-mbd in 2030

Underlying Decline Rate Observed:  3.1% (in 2009) & 2.8% (1970-2009)

Post-peak Production Decline Rate:  2.4%  (measured to 2050)

URR/EUR:  7.8-Tb.

The year 50% of URR consumed:  2108

The year flow breaches 2009 levels:  2045

The onset of Terminal Decline can be brought on by either constraints in securing proven reserves, or due to rising Underlying Decline surpassing the trend of annual New Capacity installations.  PS-2200 pegs dates on these two events:  2041 & 2031 - the latter establishing its 2030 Peak.

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only models with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil).  The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps.  RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.7%.  Whereas Campbell foresees that rate continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's position is that EOR & Reserve development activities will keep RCC flow in virtual plateau (-0.3%) from today to 2030.  Whether next year's RCC flow deteriorates or moderates make 2010 the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.

This Scenario is based on the premise that global Supply growth is determined by the annual balancing between added new Capacity and production loss via Underlying Decline Observed.  The Peak Scenario 2200 October Update indicates that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) has averaged 2.8% since 1970, whilst featuring 8-yr cyclical surges correlating with the American Recessions.

The highest loss rate (6.3%) occurred in 1984, but moderated to a recent low of 1.6% in 2003.  UDRO is 3.1% this year, appears headed to a 3.6% crest in 2010, and should attains a magnitude of 7% in 2050.  The model estimates 81-Gb of Capacity has been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 59-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030.  The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 10-mbd requirement over the next ten years.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams.  Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws incorporated within McPeakster modeling.

(October Tier-1 Scenarios update cont'd above... )

One of our earliest Tier-1 modellers finds himself demoted to Tier-2 for a second time.  Rembrandt Koppelaar has an embattled past in reconciling his production profile with designated URR.

An October update to its six scenarios reduces Peak to 89-mbd in 2014 (from 92 in 2015), but ups the 2030 marker from 64 to 78-mbd.  This played havoc with its 2016-Gb URR, and as seen in the Tier-2 chart, its Avg 7% post-peak decline rate moved its exhaustion curve into the Worst Case Scenario zone ... and disqualification.  We look forward to Rembrandt's corrections and consideration for eventual reinstatement (again).

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners increased with this version to 4,510-Gb.  Albeit impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) included in the Avg, we can infer some guidance available from the Hutter PS-2200:  it attributes a cumulative 563-Gb for BTL thru to Year 2300.  Without doubt, the taint of BTL causes the Avg to be much higher than the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study, with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/10/31) to be 1224-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1073-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002.  The second trillion will have passed by Year 2034; then the third by 2068 & fourth in 2143.  Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in 2293 as it approaches exhaustion.

From the model contributors, the lowest tally is the 2,425-Gb used by both Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell.  The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2026 93-mbd PEAK indicated by the 19-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2018 to 2033.  As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE.  Our first exercise in averaging the models (13) indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030.  We have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 Peak Dates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's position that 2008 will prove to be Peak, to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

October's Tier-1 forecasts of Peak Rate range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's position that the 85.4-mbd (2008) will not be surpassed to CERA's 114.5-mbd (2035).  The spread of 29-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago.  The pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1.2-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2.8-mbd/yr.  (Trivia Alert:  this unholy methodology indicates that in time they should merge with both agreeing to a Peak of "94-mbd in 2017")

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Excluding BTL, the 1,220-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,510-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 27% (to 2009/10/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3,290-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Based on the 19-model Avg, the 2026 PEAK occurs at 40% Depletion.  50% of the URR Avg will have been consumed by 2040.  Gross past production includes 4-Gb BTL.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO).  It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum.  More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) is appropriate.  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status.  Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.8% annually.  This means that of the 120-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 81 served to address UDO & only 39-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 90-mbd today.

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline;  often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate.  The TrendLines 19-model Avg declines at 0.8% per annum measured from the 2026 Peak to Year 2050.  Alternatively, when calculated 2026 PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2187, it will average 1.4% annually.  This compares to the more aggressive 4.6% rate for the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2009 by Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's to Year 2091 by EIA.

Their Avg Decline Rates range from OPEC's 1.0%/yr to EU/WETO's 4.2%/yr.

Peak Oil:  93-mbd in 2021

Sept 30 2009 ~ This month's Tier-1 revision updates Outlooks by Sadad Ibrahim Al Husseini, our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200 & Total.  In a juggling of the mix, we introduce an Outlook by Deutsche Bank and delete a dated Outlook by IFP.  Meanwhile, our Vintage Predictions Scoreboard has been expanded to 18.

A new Annual Production Record of 85.4-mbd was set in 2008.  But, with 6 G-20 Nations still in Recessions, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a reduced 84.0-mbd pace thru July 31st.  That's 2.6-mbd below the monthly record of 86.6-mbd set in July 2008.  See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction plus our historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future targets.

TrendLines Research has been charting the world's very best All Liquids production profiles since 2004.  Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by 3.8-mbd/yr:  reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 29-mbd (Aleklett/Campbell 85.4 & CERA 114.5) spread.

Further to the 20 Tier-1 models, 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 8 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.

But, it is the Average of the 20 Tier-1 models that reveals many very useful factoids:

Peak Oil:  93-mbd in 2021

Post Peak Production Annual Decline Rate:  0.7%  (measured to 2050)

Global URR/EUR:  4.432-Tb  (consumed to 2009/7/31:  1216-Gb incl 4Gb BTL)

Global Depletion:  27%

Annual Gross Depletion Rate:  0.7%/yr  (Net Rate:  0.9%/yr)

The year flow breaches 2-mbd:  2315

       Future Extraction Rates:

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.4
2009: 83.6  (year-to-date)
2021:  93  (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2039: 86  (50% Extraction of URR)
2043: 83  (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 76
2059: 68  (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 55  ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 36
2109: 31  (100 yrs from today)
2200:  9   (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300:  4-mbd  (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

USA contract crude price had just set a monthly record $76.09/barrel when Sadad Ibrahim Al Husseini unveiled his first major Outlook in October 2007.  Recognizing some stability of softer prices this Summer and sporting an Underlying Decline Rate Observed of 5.25%, Husseini has drastically chopped his URR estimate by 45%:  from 5.1-Tb down to 2.8-Tb.

A favourite member of this 20-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200.  The only depletion model that posts Updates monthly, the current revision reflects two major factors:  (a) 18-Gb increase (Regular Conventional) in our URR estimate; (b) annual new Capacity trend stymied by resource constraints in 2042 (rather than 2048 in August).

Cumulatively, these revisions have postponed Peak Date by ten years.  Highlights include:

The Peak:  103-mbd in 2035

Post Peak Production Decline Rate:  3.1%  (measured to 2050)

URR/EUR:  7.8-Tb.

The year 50% of URR consumed:  2109

The year flow breaches 2009 levels:  2045

This Scenario is based on the premise that global Supply growth is determined by the annual balancing between added new Capacity and production loss via Underlying Decline Observed.  The Peak Scenario 2200 September Update indicates that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) has averaged 2.8% since 1970, whilst featuring 8-yr cyclical surges correlating with the American Recessions and maximum depletion episodes within the major petroleum provinces.  The highest rate (6.3%) achieved occurred in 1984.

UDRO is 3.2% today, and appears headed to a 3.6% crest in 2010.  Amid further surges, the model assumes UDRO will average 6% by 2050.  It estimates that 81-Gb of Capacity has been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 62-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030.  This compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 10-mbd requirement over the next ten years.

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only efforts with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil).  The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps.  RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.6%.  Whereas Campbell foresees that rate continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's position is that EOR & Reserve development activities will moderate its Production Decline Rate to 0.3% from 2010 to 2025.  Next year's RCC flow could be the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams.  Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws incorporated within McPeakster modeling.

 (September Tier-1 Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Employing a 5% UDRO in its 2009 Outlook, Total has trimmed its 2020 Peak Rate to 96-mbd from 99 last year.

Over the past 20 months, probably the most robust original modeling has been conducted by the USA division of Deutsche Bank, and we are pleased to introduce their 2009 Outlook today to the Tier-1 family.  It is primarily Demand driven with an approach that emphasizes Crude Price sensitivity among the main national players.  Last year's 100-mbd Peak in 2020 is pared to 90-mbd in 2016.

Built on a 3.3-Tb URR platform and assuming 4.4% UDRO, the 2009 version finds that the next price spike (to $175/barrel  & $2.75/gallon in 2016) will be instrumental in causing a Demand Peak that throws Price & Production both into terminal decline.  It foresees massive adoption of hybrid/electric vehicles by consumers as gasoline costs climb over the next seven years.

The 2006 Outlook by IFP has been deleted.  This French Petroleum Institute has been a source of excellent forecast studies in the past.  In the interest of data integrity for the 20-model TrendLines Average, we have been deleting Outlooks after 36 months of inactivity.

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the 20 Model practitioners increased with this version to 4,432-Gb (from 4,534).  The lowest estimate is the 2,425-Gb used by both Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell.  The high is EIA's 9,000-Gb URR.

Albeit impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL included in the group's 4.4-Tb Average, we can secure some guidance from the Hutter PS-2200 which attributes a cumulative 491-Gb to BTL by 2300. It is mostly biofuels tainting that causes the figure to be so much higher than the 3.8-Tb Avg derived from our URR Study, with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/7/31) to be 1216-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1068-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002.  The second trillion will have passed by 2033; then the third by 2069 & fourth in 2153.  Annual flow will finally breach the 2-mbd threshold in 2315 as it approaches exhaustion.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 93-mbd in 2021 PEAK indicated by the 20-model Avg features a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2017 to 2032.  As such, even minor Peak Rate variances can result in significant shifts of THE PEAK DATE.  Since 2006, the Scenarios Updates have revealed a range from 2013 to 2030 & avg Peak Rates have run from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 Peak Dates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's 2008 assumption, to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

September's Tier-1 forecasts of Peak Rate range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's 85.4-mbd (2008) to CERA's 114.5-mbd (2035).  The spread of 29-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago.  The pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1.2-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2.8-mbd/yr.  (Trivia Alert:  this unholy methodology indicates that in time they should merge with both agreeing to a Peak of "94-mbd in 2017")

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Excluding BTL, the 1,212-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,432-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 27% (to 2009/7/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3,220-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Based on the 20-model Avg, the 2021 PEAK occurs at 37% Depletion.  50% of the URR Avg will have been consumed by 2039.  Gross past production includes 4-Gb BTL.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

On Nov 12 2008, I coined this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, as Underlying Decline Observed (UDO).  It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum.  More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) is appropriate.  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status.  Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.8% annually.  This means that of the 120-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 81 served to address UDO & only 39-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 90-mbd today.

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline;  often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate.  The TrendLines 20-model Avg declines at 0.7% per annum measured from the 2021 Peak to Year 2050.  The hypothetical Worst Case Scenario has a more aggressive 4.6% Decline Rate.  By Hubbert Curve theory, a Regular Conventional Crude (RCC) well/field/province generally commences decline at the point it approaches 50% Depletion.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2009 by Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's to Year 2091 by EIA.

As mentioned, the Post-Peak Avg Production Decline Rate measured to 2050 is 0.7%/yr.  Alternatively, when measured from the 2021 PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2183, it will average 1.4% annually.  Individually, this ranges from OPEC's 0.9%/yr Average to EU/WETO's 4.2%/yr Avg Decline Rate.

Peak Oil:  93-mbd in 2023

Aug 31 2009 ~ This month's revision updates Outlooks by CERA, our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200, OPEC, Royal Dutch Shell & Total.  The 1972 Club of Rome "Limits to Growth" projection is introduced today to the Invalidated Outlooks Archive.  Our Vintage Prediction Scoreboard has been expanded to 16.  Also introduced is a new charting of the world's only four recognized projections of Regular Conventional Crude, the oil affectionately known as "light sweet".

A new Annual Production Record of 85.4-mbd was set in 2008.  But, with 12 of the G-20 Nations recovering from Recession, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a reduced 84.0-mbd pace thru July 31st.  That's 2.6-mbd below the monthly record of 86.6-mbd set in July 2008.  See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction plus our historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future targets.

TrendLines Research has been charting the world's very best All Liquids production profiles since 2004.  Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by 3.8-mbd/yr:  reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 29-mbd (Aleklett/Campbell 85.4 & CERA 114.5) spread.

Further to the 20 Tier-1 models, 15 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 8 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.

But, it is the Average of the 20 Tier-1 models that reveals many very useful factoids:

Peak Oil:  93-mbd in 2023

Post Peak Production Decline Rate:  0.7%  ('til 2050)

Global URR/EUR:  4.534-Tb  (consumed to 2009/7/31:  1216-Gb incl 4Gb BTL)

Global Depletion:  27%

Annual Gross Depletion Rate:  0.7%/yr  (Net:  0.9%/yr)

The year flow breaches 2-mbd:  2316 

       Future Extraction Rates:

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.4
2009: 83.7  (year-to-date)
2023:  93  (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2041: 85  (50% Extraction of URR)
2043: 83  (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 77
2059: 69  (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 56  ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 37
2109: 33  (100 yrs from today)
2200: 10
2300:  4-mbd  (CTL & renewable BTL only)

They're back!!  Forget about green shoots.  A sure sign of the end of the global contraction has got to be the return to top spot in the Tier-1 Scenarios by CERA!  Except for a brief spell while downgraded, CERA had pretty well dominated the #1 spot.  In our March 2009 update, they lost top spot with their downward revision to 108-mbd amid CapEx concerns.  Their optimistic 115-mbd Peak in 2035 this month brought about the reinstatement.

Our favourite member of this 20-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200.  The only model that posts Updates monthly, the current revision reflects four major factors:  (a) 319-Gb decrease (Kerogen & Regular Conventional) in our URR estimate;  (b) projection for oil sector's average annual new Capacity reduced to 3.8-mbd (from 5.2);  (c) Underlying Decline Rate Observed will rise to 5.9% (formerly 4.8) by 2050;  (d) BTL long term potential downgraded to  4.9mbd from 15.5mbd.

Cumulatively, these revisions have accelerated terminal decline by twenty-three years.  Highlights include:

The Peak:  100-mbd in 2025

Post Peak Production Decline Rate:  1.6%  ('til 2050)

URR/EUR:  7.8-Tb.

The year 50% of URR consumed:  2109

The year flow breaches 2009 levels:  2045

This Scenario is based on the premise that global Supply growth is determined by the annual balancing between added new Capacity and production loss via Underlying Decline Observed.  The Peak Scenario 2200 August Update concludes that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) has averaged 2.8% since 1970, whilst featuring 8.5-yr cyclical surges correlating with maximum depletion within the major petroleum provinces.  The highest rate of 5.3% occurred in 1984.

UDRO is 3.1% today, and appears to be headed to a 3.5% crest in 2010.  Further surges will occur in 2020, 2028 & 2036.  It estimates that 81-Gb of Capacity has been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 51-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2025.  This compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 10-mbd requirement over the next ten years.

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only efforts with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil).  The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps.  RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.6%.  Whereas Campbell foresees that rate continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's position is that EOR & Reserve development activities will moderate the Production Decline Rate to 0.4% from 2010 to 2025.  Next year's RCC flow could be the watershed year in foreshadowing the unfolding of All Liquids future path.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams.  Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws incorporated within McPeakster modeling.

(August Scenarios update cont'd above... )

The most striking revision to OPEC's 2008 World Oil Outlook is the more than doubling of its URR estimate to 7.3-Tb.  The Agency has enhanced its study with a bottom-up analysis that reveals an Underlying Decline Rate Observed of 4.5%.  No doubt this was a factor in the paring of its Reference scenario 2030 Peak to 113-mbd from 118 in 2007.

2009 Updates to the Royal Dutch Shell outlook reveal a similar trimming.  The featured Scramble Scenario pares its 2020 Peak to 97 from 99-mbd.  The more optimistic Blueprints Scenario maintains its view of a steady 2020-2030 plateau, but pares the 2030 Peak to 100-mbd from 101 in 2008.

Total's two 2008 revisions have been remarkably identical to the Shell Blueprint above.  It holds to its 2020-2030 plateau and trims the 2020 Peak to 99 from 100-mbd.

In 1972, the Club of Rome commissioned the MIT Globe3 model to design its long term outlook "Limits to Growth".  The petroleum projections within its global energy analysis seem to have inspired MK Hubbert's 1974 major revision.  Built on a 2.15-Tb URR, LTG forecast a 117-mbd All Liquids Peak in 1995.  Quick on its tail, Hubbert's paper focused on Regular Conventional Crude only and projected a 111-mbd Peak, also in 1995, but employing a 2-Tb URR void of NGL & non-conventionals.  Hubbert's previous paper had predicted a 34-mbd Peak.

Media references to LTG often mistakenly quote its pessimist view of "running out oil" before the end of the century.  By depicting its findings in Invalidated Archive, it is seen that its forecast for exhaustion was not 'til 2075 and clearly this reference is out of context.  It is but one more example that the alarmist rhetoric by zealots within the McPeakster, McDoomer & Global Warming fraternities have much to do with the marginalization of those movements by the Mainstream Media and policy makers over the last two decades...

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the 20 Model practitioners increased with this version to 4,534-Gb (from 4,442).  The lowest estimate is Chris Skrebowski's 2,439-Gb & highest is EIA's 9,000-Gb URR.  It is impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL included in the group's 4.5-Tb Avg.  It can be said with certainty that the PS-2200 attributes a cumulative 513-Gb to BTL by 2300. It is mostly biofuels tainting that causes the figure to be so much higher than the 3.8-Tb Avg derived from our URR Study, with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/7/31) to be 1216-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1068-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude & 4-Gb to BTL.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 93-mbd in 2023 PEAK indicated by the 20-model Avg features a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2017 to 2032.  As such, even minor Rate variances can result in significant shifts of THE PEAK DATE.  Since 2006, the Scenarios Updates have revealed a range from 2013 to 2030 & avg Peak Rates have run from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's model Peak Dates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's 2008 to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

Today's model Peak Rates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's 85.4-mbd (2008) to CERA's 114.5-mbd (2035).  The spread of 29-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago.  The pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1.2-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2.8-mbd/yr.  Trivia alert:  this unholy methodology indicates that in time they should come together shortly and both agree to a Peak of "94-mbd in 2017".  Monitoring of the merging will continue!!

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Excluding BTL, the 1,212-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,534-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 27% (to 2009/7/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3,228-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Based on the 20-model Avg, the 2023 PEAK occurs at 37% Depletion.  50% of the URR Avg will have been consumed by 2041.  Gross past production includes 4-Gb BTL.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

On Nov 12 2008, I coined this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, as Underlying Decline Observed (UDO) per time interval, to be expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum.  More commonly, analysis is conducted in percentage terms per period for Regular Conventional Crude or All Liquids ... the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) is appropriate.  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status, spotlighting two rather mature provinces:  Saudi Arabia & the USA.

Peak Oil:  93-mbd in 2023

July 31 2009 ~ (rev 90811) This month's revision updates my own Freddy Hutter Peak Scenario 2200 & introduces a model by Kjell Aleklett,  Outlooks by Pierre-Rene Bauquis & Colin Campbell have been upgraded from Tier-2 status to Tier-1.  Scenarios by Peter Odell & Brandt-Farrell are introduced to Tier-2.  And finally, an update to the Duncan-Youngquist projection in the Invalidated Archive. 

A new Annual Production Record of 85.46-mbd was set in 2008.  But with 12 of the G-20 Nations in Recession, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a reduced 83.7-mbd pace thru June 30th.  That's 3.0-mbd below the monthly record of 86.7-mbd set in July 2008.  See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction and our historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components and future targets.

TrendLines Research has been chart tracking the world's very best All Liquids production profiles since 2004.  Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by 4.5-mbd/yr:  reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 27-mbd (Aleklett/Campbell 85.5 & EU-WETO 112.7).

23 Tier-2, Hail Mary & Invalidated Outlooks are included for discussion and posterity purposes.  But it is the Average of the 20 Tier-1 models that reveals many very useful factoids:

The Peak:  93-mbd in 2023

Post Peak Production Decline Rate:  0.7%  ('til 2050)

URR/EUR:  4.442-Tb  (consumed to 2009/6/30:  1218-Gb incl BTL)

Depletion:  27%

Annual Gross Depletion Rate:  0.7%  (Net:  0.9%)

The year 50% of URR consumed:  2039

The year flow breaches 2009 levels:  2042

The year flow breaches 5-mbd:  2293

Future Extraction Rates  (mbd)

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.5
2009: 83.7  (year-to-date)
2023:  93  (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2039: Extraction 50% of URR
2042: 83  (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 77
2059: 68  (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 54  ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 35
2109: 31  (one hundred yrs from today)
2200:  8
2300:  4  (CTL & renewable BTL only)

Our favourite member of this 20-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200.  The only model that posts Updates monthly, the current revision reflects three major factors:  (a) 2,669-Gb increase (CTL & GTL up, Kerogen & Regular Conventional down) in our URR estimate;  (b) the oil sector's average annual new Capacity uptrend of 3.5-mbd will finally face resource constraints as it peaks @ 5.2-mbd in Year 2048;  (c) Underlying Decline Rate Observed rises to 4.8% by 2050.

It is this environment, with annual Underlying Decline finally out-pacing New Capacity, that initiates Terminal Decline.  Highlights include:

The Peak:  103-mbd in 2048

Post Peak Production Decline Rate:  2.4%  ('til 2050)

URR/EUR:  8.1-Tb.

The year 50% of URR consumed:  2100

The year flow breaches 2009 levels:  2056

The year flow breaches 20-mbd:  2323

This Scenario is based on the premise that global Supply growth is determined by the annual balancing between added new Capacity and production loss via Underlying Decline Observed.  The Peak Scenario 2200 July Update concludes that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) has averaged 2.8% since 1970, whilst featuring 8.4-yr cyclical surges correlating with maximum depletion within the major petroleum provinces.  The highest rate of 5.3% occurred in 1984.

UDRO is 3.1% today, and appears to be headed to a 3.3% crest in 2011.  Further surges will occur in 2020, 2028 & 2036.  It estimates that 82-Gb of Capacity has been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 72-Gb (compared to IEA WEO's 45-Gb) will be required for that purpose by 2030.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams.  Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws incorporated within McPeakster modeling.

(July Scenarios update cont'd above... )

We're pleased to introduce Kjell Aleklett's first All Liquids Outlook.  The author assisted Colin Campbell with the formation of ASPO.  One of his Uppsala Univ (Sweden) grad students is Tier-2's Fredric Robelius.

Aleklett has joined the chorus with Colin Campbell, Robert Hirsch & Jeff Rubin in asserting that global production peaked in 2008.  At 3.6%, only the EU-WETO model has a more aggressive post-peak decline rate.

Regular TrendLiners would be familiar with our practice of disqualifying overly optimistic Outlooks.  Pierre-Rene Bauquis's effort met that fate in May 2009 by exceeding the 2013 92.5-mbd threshold.  Starting this month, new methodology sets a standard of 96.2 in 2014 ... and i am pleased that this projection re-slips under the radar and is upgraded to Tier-1 status again from a brief relegation to the Tier-2 presentation.

Since February 2009 i've been troubled by Colin Campbell's chopping of 3mbd off his past/present/future NGL figures.  Unresponsive in defending this action, his Depletion Model was downgraded to Tier-2.  It has been found subsequently that both Campbell & Aleklett are amending their NGL stats to reflect lower BTU content.  Albeit this breaks with half a century of traditional counting, both of these Scenarios have been welcomed to Tier-1 status today.  An adjustment to the baselines has been implemented, reversing their "creativeness" and correcting any agenda-driven motives.

A quite robust model has been developed by Americans Adam Brandt & Alexander Farrell.  Unfortunately it failed the 2014 threshold test and is introduced today via the Tier-2 presentation.  I am both hopeful and confident that subsequent fine tuning will be rewarded with a rise to prominence.  In the meantime, it sports a 146 peak in 2045 built on an inferred 6.7-tb URR.

Long time practitioner Peter Odell (Netherlands) updated his forecast in July.  Perhaps based on conjecture, its introduction is also being held at Tier-2 status for the time being.  Featuring a 129-mbd peak in 2050, it is a refinement of his Y2k Outlook (134-mbd Peak in 2059) that has been added today to our TrendLines Scoreboard below.  It becomes the fifth best effort of the long-term forecasts!