Our compilation, representation and composite average of the world's 19 most accurate recognized Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios, based on data by Pierre-René Bauquis (France), CERA (USA), EIA (USA), Deutsche Bank (USA Division), EU WETO/Poles (EU), ExxonMobil (USA), Sadad Ibrahim Al Husseini (Saudi Arabia), Freddy Hutter (the Yukon/Canada), IEA (OECD-Paris), Jean Laherrère (France), Richard Miller (BP-UK), OPEC (Vienna), PFC Energy (USA), Royal Dutch Shell (Netherlands), Nansen Saleri, (USA), Chris Skrebowski (UK), Total (France), Turner-Mason (USA) & Peter Wells (UK):

  Based on 19-model Avg:

          Peak Oil:  94-mbd in 2024

          Post-Peak Production Avg Decline Rate to 2050:  0.7%/yr  ('til 2050)

          The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted:  2032

          The year flow is under today's 86-mbd:  2041

          The year we virtually run out of oil (excl BTL):  2300  (less than 5mbd)

          Global URR/EUR:  3,897-Gb  (1,225-Gb consumed to 2009/12/31 excl 4Gb BTL)

          Global Depletion:  31% of URR  (Net Depletion Rate:  1.1%/yr)

Tier-1 Scenarios Chart Archive w/o text:  "charts only" for 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

     Tier-1 Scenarios Chart Archive with text for 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

TrendLines Research monitors the major forecasts of peak oil depletion from around the globe.  The top 19 (and their average) are plotted on a graph and each month this Tier-1 presentation is posted to the website.  The remainder are plotted on a Tier-2 chart.  For purists, a third chart plots the only 4 forecasts of the narrow definition of Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet).  For posterity purposes, a final chart tracks the noteworthy historic but failed predictions since 1956.

Peak Oil:  94-mbd in 2024

June 30 2010 ~ Below, this month's revision:  (a) updates Tier-1 Outlooks by IEA, Peter Wells & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.

We're pleased to report 2010 global production is on a pace that exceeds the 85.4-mbd annual record set in 2008.  Indeed a new quarterly record was set in 2010Q1.  Monthly flow, which had slipped from its 86.7-mbd record of July 2008 record to only 83.2 (Jan-2009) at the depth of the Recession era, is poised for a new record in January.  See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction.  Historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future target prices (out to 2035) can be viewed via our Gas Pump & Barrel Meter charts.  See chart comparing our projections with long term Crude Oil Price Forecasts by Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, IHS, Jeff Rubin, Matt Simmons & theOilDrum.

Backgrounder

In 1972, the Club of Rome attempted to shock stakeholders and policy makers with its Limits to Growth study forecast of All Liquids Peak Oil:  117-mbd in 1995.  Their attempt at awareness that natural resources are finite and in jeopardy with a growing global population was underscored in 1974 with M K Hubbert's similar prediction:  111-mbd in 1995 (excl NGL, deep sea, polar, Orinoco & tar sands).

Because OPEC manipulation invalidated both these projections, Colin Campbell attempted to update the long term prospects for All Liquids.  The Irish geologist stunned many when in 1989 he declared that All Liquids flow (65.5mbd) would never again re-attain its 1979 pre-crisis Peak of 67-mbd (see all 3 charted).  Well, he was very wrong (86mbd today!).  This episode made it quite clear that the uncertainty & price volatility caused by such pessimistic reports (even by well-intentioned professionals) required addressing by the energy sector.

In that regard, we saw OECD's IEA, USA's EIA, OPEC and major IOCs step forward with their own annual & bi-annual long term projections in an attempt to set the record straight and stabilize the marketplace.  It didn't happen.  As the ranks of McPeaksters were swelled by a growing element from the lunatic fringe, their well-intentioned message was hijacked and discourse deteriorated to the realm of economic and social collapse as the world runs out of oil.  As the rhetoric escalated, we thought it would be constructive to provide a comparative platform for these opposing views of the future.

TrendLines Research has been analysing the world's very best All Liquids long term production profiles (and the not-so-good ones) since 2003.  Our database includes six decades of forecast studies.  A year later we commenced to share these results at our website.

Back in 2005, the 7-model Average indicated a 94-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 2.6-mbd/yr:  reduced from 41-mbd (Campbell 85 & CERA 126) in 2005 to today's 28-mbd (Husseini/Laherrère 86 & EIA-Sweetnam 114) spread.

Interested in who had the best forecast a dozen years ago?  Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

Today's Model Reviews:

IEA gave guidance on two fronts this month.  The MTOMR raised its 2015 signpost by 1-mbd to 92.  The Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 gives us the first look at mid-Century energy status under the Copenhagen aspirations.  After a 105 Peak in 2030, ETP projects 2050 flows will be a mere 74-mbd ... down from an inferred 95-mbd in WEO.

Renewables will comprise 40% of primary energy in 2050.  Electric power generation will include 48% renewables and 24% nuclear.

Middle East specialist Peter Wells has heavily slashed his 2020 peak:  from 2008's 101.5 estimate to only 93-mbd in this Spring's update, citing a 48-Gb cut to Saudi Arabia's URR (345-Gb).

A favourite member of this 19-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200.  The only depletion model that publishes updates monthly, the current revision reflects a single factor: (a) 75-Gb decrease (mostly Kerogen) of our URR estimate.

The model concludes the onset of terminal production decline can be brought on by either (a) constraints in securing sufficient proven reserves, or (b) due to rising Underlying Decline Observed surpassing the trend of annual New Capacity installations.  PS-2200 pegs dates on these two events:  2051 & 2031 ... the latter establishing its 2030 Peak (102-mbd).

From 2004 to March 2009, PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model were the sole global models conducting monthly analysis of the narrowly defined Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude).  Upon Colin's retirement last year, PS-2200 uniquely carries on that role.  Their opposing views (see RCO chart) of light sweet crude's future path is representative of the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps.

RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and production has been declining at a rapid 2.6%/yr.  Whereas Campbell foresaw this rate of decline continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, resulting in a mere 36-mbd flow by 2030, PS-2200 projects a softer 0.9% after 2009 and 55-mbd flow in 2030.  Hutter's contrary position is twofold based:  (a) rising surplus capacity in OPEC & Russia masked the apparent decline; & (b) the recent high Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) of 3.1% in 2008 was Recession-inspired, and EOR & Capacity development activities are driving down UDRO towards an ultimate 2.5% low in 2012.  Whether or not this year's RCC flow deteriorates or moderates makes 2010 the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.  And thus far, light sweet extraction exceeds 2009 flows by 0.6-mbd.

The Peak Scenario 2200 June Update proposes that policy makers must target their strategies for substitution of transportation fuels at the 2050-2065 time frame.  The revised projection forecasts All Liquids production will commence a potentially catastrophic 2.8% decline rate in 2050.  Underlying the plunge is RCC's entering a sea change R/P 10 environment typical to a petroleum province's final exhaustion phase.  At this juncture, with NGL's having peaked in 2043, non-conventionals meteoric rise can no longer offset RCC's demise.

The update further elaborates on its bold hypothesis that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) rises and falls with the American Recessions.  It contends UDRO has just demonstrated this phenomenon for a sixth time since 1970.  After troughing in 2012 as mentioned, UDRO should climb back to 3.5% during a probable 2017 Recession.  The model estimates 77-mbd of Capacity was added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 58-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams.  Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR linearization, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws (and myths) incorporated within McPeakster WAG's.

Further to the 19 Tier-1 models, 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 11 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.  But, it is the Average of the 19 Tier-1 models that reveals the very best guidance, such as:

Future Extraction Rates:

2008: 85.4-mbd
2009: 84.2
2010: 85.9  (pending)
2024:  94  (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2032: 92  (50% Extraction of URR)
2041: 85  (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 77
2060: 67  (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 55  ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 35
2110: 29  (100 yrs from today)
2200: 10   (flows limited to Bitumen/X-Heavy, GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300:  5-mbd  (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

(June Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners is 3,897-Gb when we deduct from the nominal average the volume attributable to renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) as calculated by the Hutter PS-2200 model.  It estimates a cumulative 554-Gb of BTL thru to Year 2300.  This net economic resource number compares rather well to the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of practitioners.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/12/31) to be 1229-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1077-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet) & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002.  Via the 19-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2034; then the third by Year 2074 (excl BTL).  Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in Year 2300 ... signifying the virtual exhaustion of fossil fuels.  From that juncture, only BTL sourced renewable liquids and the last vestiges of CTL & GTL provide production.

Of the Tier-1 model contributors, the lowest URR tally is the 2,439-Gb used by Chris Skrebowski.  The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2024 94-mbd PEAK indicated by the 19-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2018 to 2032.  As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE.  Our first exercise in averaging, using seven models,  indicated a 94-mbd PEAK in 2020.  Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2005 have highlighted PEAK DATE "average" ranging from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATE "average" running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 models' Peak Date range from 2011 (Sadad Al Husseini & Jean Laherrère) to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

June's forecasts of Peak Rate range from 86-mbd (Sadad Al Husseini & Jean Laherrère) to EIA-Sweetnam's 114-mbd.

We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 2.6-mbd/yr.  Today's high-to-low spread of 28-mbd (Husseini/Laherrère 86 & EIA-Sweetnam 114) has been diminished from 41 (Campbell 85 & CERA 126) just five years ago.  While the pessimists have only upped their forecasts by 0.2-mbd/yr, the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2.5-mbd/yr (trivia alert:  if this unholy methodology continues, by 2018 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a Peak Rate of "94").

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Based on the 19-model avg, and excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,225-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 3,897-Gb avg URR reveals global Depletion of 31% (to 2009/12/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.8%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (2,672-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 1.1%/yr.

The consensus 2024 PEAK occurs at 44% Depletion.  The 50% crossover of the inferred URR avg will occur in 2032.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO).  It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum.  More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - appropriately the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO).  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status.  Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually.  This means that of the 119-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 77 served to address UDO & only 42-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 93-mbd today.  The UDRO rises and falls in surges coinciding with the American economic recessions.  Below, the PS-2200 finding is compared to short/medium term practitioner estimates of present/future All Liquids UDRO:

   1.5% - CERA (2009-2030 Avg)

   1.9% - Adam Brandt (2007 - sole peer-reviewed contribution)

   1.9% - IEA (2008-2030 Avg)

   2.9% - Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario 2200 - 2010 ytd (rising to 4.7% by 2050)

   4.1% - Matt Simmons (2009-2030 Avg)

   4.2% - EIA (2009-2030 Avg)

   4.2% - Jeff Rubin (2009)

   4.5% - OPEC (2008)

   4.7% - Chris Skrebowski (2010)

   5.0% - Deutsche Bank (2009, rising to 8% by 2030)

   5.0% - Total (2009)

   5.2% - Schlumberger (2009-2030 Avg)

   5.25% - Sadad al Husseini (2009)

   6.0% - PFC (by 2030)

   7.0% - UK Energy Research Centre (2009)

   9.0% - consensus at theOilDrum & PeakOildotcom (2009)

CERA's 2009 study has determined that flow from currently in-place Capacity will deteriorate by only 31-mbd in the next 21 years.  In its recent WEO-2008, IEA presumes 45-mbd of new Capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030.  My own PS-2200 projects a figure of 58-mbd is more probable.

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline;  often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate.  The TrendLines 19-model avg declines at 0.7% per annum measured from the 2024 Peak to Year 2050.  Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2201, it will average 1.3% annually.  It is a very manageable reality when compared to the most aggressive rate mathematically possible (4.9%) as illustrated in the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2012 (Sadad Al Husseini & Jean Laherrère) to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Production Decline Rates to exhaustion range from OPEC's 1.0%/yr to 4.2%/yr shared by both EU/WETO & Chris Skrebowski.

(June Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Post OPEC-Crisis forecasting of an All Liquids PEAK commenced in 1989.  Our archive of pre-2001 projections reveals that the Jean Laherrère 1997 Outlook (France) is the current title holder for best overall Vintage Predictions, by merits of its least cumulative errors over the three year span.

Second place goes to the Jean Laherrère 1999 Outlook & third place to the EIA 1995 Int'l Energy Outlook (USA).

We also add 3 honourable mentions to the Jean Laherrère 1997 Outlook for its best forecast for all three of the monitored years ... all of 'em being accurate to within 1-mbd!  (rev 9.1231)

Methodology revisions

a)  If an Outlook does not fully address post-peak production Decline, a progressive decline rate (to ultimate R/P = 10) is arbitrarily applied to exhaust its designated URR.

b)  Outlooks exhibiting extreme "doglegs" not reflective of conventional/non-conventional transitions, but rather created by our reconciliation with URR risk downgrade to Tier-2 status

c)  To improve the integrity, accuracy and due diligence of both the Scenarios illustrated and more importantly their cumulative Average, Outlooks with unreasonably optimistic medium term flow rates have been routinely disqualified since Feb/2008.  In the spirit of transparency, TrendLines Research has been publishing the qualifying threshold:  via current MegaProject analysis, we calculate the 2014 potential flow rate to be 96.8-mbd (incl Surplus Capacity and UDO discrepancy), albeit the probable rate is 90.0mbd (PS-2200) or 90.2mbd via IEA 2009 MTOMR.

We suggest that inferred flow rates that breach the 96.8-mbd 2014 threshold to the upside are seriously flawed.  This newer rate gives 6.8-mbd latitude above the probable 90-mbd target rate.  We feel this is overly generous but grants consideration to differing opinions by modellers wrt Surplus Capacity & Underlying Decline Observed.

d)  Where a practitioner provides two or more Outlooks, we often use discretion to feature the more conservative version & their "Hail Mary" scenario is relegated to the Tier-2 presentation.

e)  Scroll down to view Footnotes for:  Tier-1 Scenarios, Tier-2 & "Hail Mary" Scenarios & Invalidated Archive Scenarios.

f) Scroll further for the 1989-2009 Colin Campbell Depletion Model tracking,  Regular Conventional Crude tracking & Excluded Practitioners

g)  For comparative purposes, all Scenarios are adjusted to the 2009 EIA All Liquids baseline, and thus, their Peaks and mileposts may vary from published data

h)   In the interest of data integrity for the 20-model TrendLines Average, Outlooks may be downgraded to Tier-2 after 36 months of inactivity.

Underlying Decline Observed (UDO), Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) & Underlying Decline Rate (UDR) are terms coined by Freddy Hutter of TrendLines in our 2008/11/12 & 2007/12/19 Depletion Scenarios updates

McPeakster:  coined by Freddy Hutter of TrendLines in our 2008/2/11 Scenarios update

McDoomer:  coined by Freddy Hutter of TrendLines in our 2009/1/23 PS-2200 update, but he originated the term at the PeakOildotcom forums in June 2008

Demand Destruction Barrier was coined by Freddy Hutter in the November 2009 Barrel Meter Discussions.

This media release comprises the highlights of a broader analysis & charts available at our website each month. Click here for an archive of releases since 2004. Click here for an archive of charts only since 2004.

And, please visit our 21-model URR Estimates venue for more on this topic.  Please email me if u can suggest a worthy Presentation candidate, new Outlooks, questions, comments or permissions.  Thanx to all that participate and provide feedback...

Tier-2, "Hail Mary" & Archived Invalidated Outlooks - Our compilation above has included at times Outlooks which are still valid but have become stale dated.  And some Outlooks have unconventional definitions or suspect due diligence.  We call these Tier 2 candidates.  Then there were situations where model practitioners' releases included two or more Scenarios.  We usually chose the conservative case, leaving the other "optimistic" case in limbo.  We will call those orphans our "Hail Mary" class.  Over the past years, some Outlooks have become invalidated by rising Oil Production.  The first victim was M King Hubbert's 1956 forecast; as within ten years of its release, extraction was already 10-mbd over its forecast pace.

None-the-less, it is felt that all these efforts have merit and were/are significant for their time and as such TrendLines Research is pleased to provide a venue.  Where we adopted a low case Outlook above, the orphaned optimistic cases are grouped with aforementioned dated studies in the Tier 2 & "Hail Mary" Presentation below.  Outlooks ultimately surpassed by Production realities are eventually shifted to the Archive Presentation below.

Thus, presented below are our 2 depictions of 26 inferior Peak Oil Depletion Projections based on the data of: Kjell Aleklett (Sweden), Ali Samsam Bakhtiari's WOCAP (Iran), BP (UK), Brandt-Farrell (USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), William Carlson (USA), Club of Rome (USA), Duncan-Youngquist (USA), EIA-Guy Caruso (USA), Energy Watch Group/Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik (Germany), EU WETO/Poles (EU), Robert Hirsch (USA), 2 by M King Hubbert (USA), IHS (France), ITPOES (UK), Rembrandt Koppelaar (Netherlands), Ray Leonard of Kuwait Energy, Michael Lynch (USA), Peter Odell (Netherlands), OPEC (Vienna), Fredrik Robelius (Sweden), Royal Dutch Shell (Netherlands), Jeff Rubin (Canada), Matt Simmons (USA), Michael Smith (UK) & Wood Mackenzie (Scotland):

Tier-2 Scenarios:  March 31st ~ The UK's ITPOES (Industry Taskforce Peak Oil Energy Strategy) released its second report.  Abandoning its own underlying science, it is relegated to Tier-2 as purely a political document.  Silent since 2004, BP has changed its peak to 99-mbd in 2030 from 90 in 2015.  With 2010 on pace to set a new annual record, the outlook by Jeff Rubin and its declaration of 2008 as Peak year is absent and downgraded to the Invalidated Scenarios Archive below.

Members of the Tier-2 & Hail Mary presentation exhibit one or more deemed flaws:

Stale Dated:  EIA-Caruso 2005, Lynch 1996

Poor reconciliation with URR - Low projected Peak and/or overly aggressive post-peak decline rate results in a future "dogleg"  to exhaust remaining resource:  Koppelaar 2009 (2030) & Robelius 2007 (2050)

Overly optimistic medium term targets - 2014 is only five years away.  Megaproject analysis suggests flow rate will be 90-mbd.  Considering practitioner differences wrt Surplus Capacity & Underlying Decline Observed, potential flow could be 97.1-mbd albeit highly improbable.  Outlooks with deemed unachievable targets:  Brandt-Farrell 2008 (105.2mbd by 2014), IHS 2007 (104), EIA-Wood Y2k (103), Smith 2007 (101), Lynch 1996 (100), Wood Mackenzie 2007 (99.5), Robelius (98.5) & Leonard-Kuwait Energy 2007 (97.5).

Hail Mary Scenarios - Practitioner has a more conservative outlook that has been featured in Tier-1:  EIA-Caruso 2005, EU WETO/POLES 2007 (reference) & Royal Dutch Shell 2008 (blueprint)

Mathematical Models - Lack robustness to depict inferior non-conventional flows:  Carlson 2007

Inadequate robustness or Conjecture-based:  Hirsch 2009, Lynch 1996, Odell 2009, ITPOES 2010 & BP 2010

Invalidated Outlooks Archive:  March 31st ~ With 2010 on pace to surpass the annual record, the three scenarios wrongly declaring 2008 as Peak Year have been downgraded to the Invalidated Outlooks Archive from their previous status:  Kjell Aleklett 2009, Colin Campbell 2009 (Tier-1) & Jeff Rubin 2009 (Tier-2),

Invalidated Outlooks in general forecast low Peak Rates and/or harsh post-peak Decline Rates.  Typically they are constructed on URR/EUR platforms less than the geology-based Worst Case Scenario.

Current Production exceeds Outlook Peak Rate:  Hubbert 1956 (34mbd), Matt Simmons (84.4), Bakhtiari (81), EWG-LBST (81), Aleklett (85) , Rubin (85) & Campbell (66 & 85)

Outlook's Peak Date surpassed:  Hubbert-'56 (Y2k), Hubbert-'74 (1995), (Duncan-Youngquist (2007), Matt Simmons (2007), Bakhtiari (2006), EWG-LBST (2006), Aleklett (2008) & Rubin (2008) & Campbell (1989 & 2008)

The highlighted years of distinction are: 2008 (highest peak 97mbd), 2002 (2900-Gb URR high), 2009 (current update), 2004 (Colin Campbell's dark days call:  80mbd peak coming in 2006) & 1989 (Campbell's initial 66-mbd scenario).

See how the latest (2009) Campbell Depletion Model measures up against the only other three studies that have addressed Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil) over the years.

click chart for more...

Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario 2200 compiles the long term production profiles of the 7 main component flows that comprise All Liquids.

click chart for the June 2010 update charts & discussion ...

 Regular Conventional Oil Scenarios

Campbell drawn from Retirement for 2010 update

July 29 2010 ~ There have been only 4 modellers worldwide that study Regular Conventional Oil ... the light sweet crude:  Albert Bartlett (USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA) & TrendLines' own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada).

Hubbert's initial RCO projection commenced the discourse on Peak Oil in 1956.  It's Y2k Peak Date was intuitive but the model was flawed by its lowly 1,250-Gb estimate of URR.  His 1974 update boosted the resource base to 2-Tb, a figure that is still relevant by modern standards, but the second projection was truncated by OPEC interference the following year...

A subsequent effort was the 1998 Bartlett model with its forecast of a 73-mbd peak in 2004.  In actual fact, RCO extraction peaked in 2005 (68-mbd), while the midpoint of its URR/EUR was crossed in January 2008.  By the end of 2009, production had deteriorated to 61.8-mbd.

Jean Laherrère & Colin Campbell have been the sector's most stalwart peak oil study practitioners.  Both have openly shared their annual analysis with fellow modellers for two decades.  This month Colin came out of retirement with a surprise update.  Campbell's 2010 Depletion Model still assumes RCO's dramatic 2.5% production decline rate will continue unabated 'til 2030, but it increases RCO resource by 63-gb to 1,963-Gb. This is a career high estimate for the DM.

Conversely, the Hutter Peak Scenario 2200 (the only other active model) projects a softer 1.5% avg annual decline rate to 2030, with a resource of 2,064-Gb.  While Campbell forecasts the annual flow rate deteriorates to 35-mbd (down 1) by 2030, Hutter takes the position 47mbd (down 8) is more probable.  On the longer term, whereas Campbell predicts the annual Decline rate will soften after 2030, and even more post-2050, Hutter sees major resource constraint culminating in an R/P 9 (10% decline) environment in 2051.  Prior to that, Hutter forecasts a secondary peak to 55-mbd while RCO reserves are used to replenish waning arctic & deep-sea extraction from 2030-2050.

The basis for the Hutter Peak Scenario 2200 interpretation lies in its analysis that the four-year extraction decline was actually a masking of reality by ever increasing surplus capacity ... mostly by OPEC members.  2010 will be the watershed year in determining which premise is correct.  If Campbell's hypothesis of continued aggressive decline of 2.5% is in play, RCO should be only 60.2-mbd this year.  OTOH, if RCO stays above that threshold, then the Hutter position may be superior.  And by extension, the scenario with the correct interpretation will likely be rewarded with the more accurate All Liquids projection as well.  Thus far in 2010, year-to-date figures indicate there has been a pause in the decline ... 62.3-mbd.

Using the proper historic narrow definition of Regular Conventional Oil, these production profiles exclude NGL, processing gains & the non-conventionals (Bitumen, X-heavy, Arctic, Deep Sea, Biofuels, GTL, CTL & Kerogen).  Hence, we have excluded the wider "conventional" projections by Guseo, Korpela, Kuwait University, Laherrère  & Walsh.  RCO comprises only 73% of All Liquids production today, and it is clear that NGL & the non-conventionals play an ever increasing role.  The PS-2200 model projects RCO will be a mere 50.3% of 2030 All Liquids, and will fall below 50% in 2054 ... a significant threshold for posterity.

Footnotes:   (rev 2010/3/31)

Tier-1 Scenarios Chart:

Pierre-René Bauquis  (ver 8.0122) - n/a

CERA  (ver 9.1106) - Has probably the second best database (IHS) of world's oil fields.  Consistently the most optimistic Peak Rate forecast since 2004.

Deutsche Bank - Author Sankey models on premise Peak Demand in 2016 will precede supply issues.

EU WETO-POLES 2007  (carbon constraint case) - n/a

EIA 2010 AEO  (reference case - sweetnam hybrid) - EIA's 1995 version sports the Third best overall record on TrendLines long-term prediction Scoreboard.  At 9-Tb, boasts the highest URR of all models.

ExxonMobil 2009 - n/a

Sadad al Husseini 2007 - most pessimistic of Tier-1 practitioners:  Peak is 86-mbd in 2011

Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario 2200 - only model that updates monthly;  Energy Analyst for TrendLines Research

IEA  (2009-WEO, 2010-MTOMR & ETP-2010 hybrid) - Assumes questionably low 1.9% Underlying Decline Rate Observed.

Jean Laherrère  (linearization ver 10.0517) - TrendLines Most Accurate 10-yr Forecaster in 2008 & 2009, and on target as best in 2010 as well.  Based on his two decade studies of Linearization modeling, Jean's Model is the sole mathematics curve-based Outlook in our Tier-1 presentation, and was one of our original six back in 2004.

Richard Miller 2009  (in practice scenario) - UKERC has assisted in rebasing this Outlook to include NGL, CTL, GTL, Bitumen & BTL

OPEC 2009  (reference scenario) - n/a

PFC 2009 (ver 10.0309) - n/a

Royal Dutch Shell 2008  (scramble scenario) - Major dogleg after 2200 represents renewable BTL production.

Nansen Saleri  (ver 8.0304) - may fail future robustness test

Chris Skrebowski  (ver 10.0202) - Renowned for development of the bottom-up Megaprojects flow analysis.  Until the 2010 version, worst-case methodology had been subject to frequent upward revisions as new facilities announced.  Lowest URR estimate in Tier-1

Total  (ver 8.0602) - n/a

Turner, Mason & Company Consulting Engineers  (ver 9.1123) - Our newest member of the Tier-1 family

Peter Wells  (ver 10.0412) - Has probably the best database of world's oil fields (IHS + proprietary)

TIER-2 & "Hail Mary" Scenarios Chart:

BP 2004 - Downgraded to Tier-2 only 'cuz it is stale-dated.

Brandt-Farrell 2009 - Failed 2014 milepost test suggesting 105-mbd by that date (84 - 96 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.

William Carlson 2007 (logistic analysis) - Excellent effort, but the Tier-1 Chart is limited to a single mathematical curve model contribution (Laherrère preferred at this time).

EIA/Caruso 2005 - Included in Top 4 most accurate 10-yr forecasts.  Downgraded to Tier-2 only 'cuz it is stale-dated.  Also, this is the Hail Mary version of EIA's multiple efforts.  Reference Scenario Sweetnam hybrid preferred.

EU 2007 WETO-POLES  (reference case) - This is the Hail Mary version of WETO's 2 scenarios.

Robert Hirsch 2009 - No serious modeling available.  His effort is mainly for pundit entertainment purposes.

IHS 2007  (ver 7.0109) - Failed 2013 milepost test suggesting 103-mbd by that date (83 - 92 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.

ITPOES 2010 - UK's Industry Taskforce Peak Oil Energy Security second report abandoned its own science to produce a shameful agenda-driven political document. 

Rembrandt Koppelaar 2009  (rapid conventional depletion/ accelerated nonconventional growth or rd/ag scenario) - Downgraded 'cuz latest version shifts profile to below Worst Case Scenario zone.

Kuwait Energy 2007  (ray leonard ver 7.0917) - Failed 2013 milepost test suggesting 97.5-mbd by that date (83 - 92 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.  Intentional "dogleg" represents non-conventionals.

Michael Lynch 1996 - 7.3-Tb URR is largest of Tier-2.  4th best on the Vintage Forecast Scoreboard ... downgraded to Tier-2 only 'cuz it is stale-dated.

Peter Odell 2009 - Fails some reconciliation tests.  Appears to be a conjecture-based update of better previous dated models.

Fredric Robelius 2007 - Failed 2013 milepost test suggesting 98.5-mbd Peak prior to that date (83 - 92 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.  An overly aggressive Decline Rate of 1.8% causes major production profile "dogleg" after 2050.

Royal Dutch Shell 2009 (blueprint scenario) - n/a

Michael Smith 2007  (ver 7.04) - Failed 2013 milepost test suggesting 101-mbd by that date (83 - 92 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.

Wood MacKenzie 2007 - Failed 2013 milepost test suggesting 99-mbd by that date (83 - 92 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.

Invalidated Scenarios Archive Chart:

Kjell Aleklett 2009 (ver 9.1109) - Erred by declaring 2008 was Peak Year

Samsam Bakhtiari 2003 WOCAP - Erred by a 2006 Peak of 81-mbd.  Also, overly aggressive Decline Rate of 2.7% causes major production profile "dogleg" after 2020.  The most error-riddled effort, Bakhtiari mistakenly built the model on ASPO's 1800-Gb Regular Conventional URR platform instead of Campbell's 2900-Gb All Liquids URR.  Also integrity issue:  upon failure, claimed it was not an All Liquids model.

Colin Campbell 1989 - Erred by declaring a 1989 Peak of 66-mbd.  Listed for historical significance purposes only.  To be fair, this original All Liquids projection was updated annually from 1999 onwards.

Colin Campbell 2009  (ver 90310) - Erred by declaring 2008 was Peak Year

Club of Rome's 1972 "Limits to Growth" - Representing All Liquids, it has been misrepresented as forecasting "running out of oil".  Presented two years before Hubbert conventional oil release.

In 1972, the Club of Rome commissioned the MIT Globe3 model to design its long term outlook "Limits to Growth".  The petroleum projections within its global energy analysis seem to have inspired MK Hubbert's 1974 major revision.  Built on a 2.15-Tb URR, LTG forecast a 117-mbd All Liquids Peak in 1995.  Quick on its tail, Hubbert's paper focused on Regular Conventional Crude only and projected a 111-mbd Peak, also in 1995, but employing a 2-Tb URR void of NGL & non-conventionals.  Hubbert's previous paper had predicted a 34-mbd Peak.

Media references to LTG often mistakenly quote its pessimist view of "running out oil" before the end of the century.  By depicting its findings in Invalidated Archive, it is seen that its forecast for exhaustion was not 'til 2075 and clearly this reference is out of context.  It is but one more example that the alarmist rhetoric by zealots within the McPeakster, McDoomer & Global Warming fraternities have much to do with the marginalization of those movements by the Mainstream Media and policy makers over the last two decades...

Duncan-Youngquist 1999 - Best overall record on TrendLines Vintage prediction Scoreboard.  Eventually erred with a 2007 Peak of 87-mbd.

EWG/LBST  2007 - Erred by a 2006 Peak of 81-mbd.  Also, an overly aggressive Decline Rate of 3.0% causes major production profile "dogleg" after 2030.

M K Hubbert 1956 - Erred by a Y2k Peak of 34-mbd.  Note production profile does not incl NGL, Bitumen, X-Heavy, Polar Arctic, Deep Sea, CTL, GTL, Kerogen or BTL.

M K Hubbert 1974 - Erred by a 1995 Peak of 111-mbd.  Note production profile does not incl NGL, Bitumen, X-Heavy, Polar Arctic, Deep Sea, CTL, GTL, Kerogen or BTL.

Jeff Rubin 2009 - Erred by declaring 2008 was Peak Year;  Production profile fails robustness test by not addressing post 2015 exhaustion.  His effort is mainly for pundit entertainment purposes.

Matt Simmons 2008  (ver 8.0416) - Erred by declaring a 2007 Peak of 84.4-mbd.  Also, an overly aggressive Decline Rate of 7.0% infers a 1575-Gb URR that is 449-Gb less than the most conservative recognized geologist estimate (2024-Gb by EWG/LBST).  His effort is mainly for pundit entertainment purposes.

Tracking of Colin Campbell - ASPO/IE Depletion Model since 1989:

The highlighted years of distinction are: 2008 (highest peak 97mbd), 2002 (2900-Gb URR high), 2009 (current update), 2004 (Colin Campbell's dark days call: 80mbd peak coming in 2006) & 1989 (Campbell's initial 66-mbd scenario).

Since 2004, TrendLines Research has conducted due diligence on the Depletion Model for inclusion in our Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios.  This includes reconciling the model's production profile with its URR.  Because Campbell's Depletion Model newsletter graphic ends in 2050, it was unapparent to viewers that many of the model's early All Liquids projections failed to sufficiently exhaust URR. 

The above post-2050 resolution chart exposes the methodology errors of the Depletion Model in its early days.  In short, Campbell's low and/or early Peaks and/or harsh post-Peak Decline Rates were too aggressive to consume all his attributed URR, leaving production profile "doglegs" in 1999, Y2k, 2001, 2002, 2003 & 2004.  In the dark days of 2004, it seems that Campbell was unduly influenced by zealot members of the McPeakster fraternity:  he corrected his doglegs by slashing All Liquids URR from 2900-Gb to 2400 albeit the URR Estimates 17-model Avg was 2942-Gb at the time.  All Liquids Peak was advanced from 2012 to 2006 & Peak Rate was reduced to 80-mbd from 87-mbd.  Motivations at the time were questionable ... and i did!!

My intervention and vigilant scrutiny led to better quality projections by Campbell in late 2005, 2006, 2007.  Unfortunately, the Campbell 2008 Newsletters saw his stated 2007 production trimmed from 87-mbd in January to a pathetic 81-mbd by December.  As stated in the Tier-2 footnotes, upon reconciling Campbell's data, we found that he justified the low number by reducing NGL flow rates for 2007 & 2008 to a mere 5-mbd from his previous 8-mbd tally.  When the elusive 3-mbd NGL error is added back, his figures are in complete agreement with the 84.4-mbd at EIA.  Previously an eager and forthright responder, it is with dismay that we report that to date, Colin Campbell has refused to address this recent discrepancy brought to his attention via our emails.  (addendum:  In his Nov 9 2009 model update, Kjell Aleklett has conceded that he erred in advising Campbell that an NGL downgrade was in order as he finds EIA has already made the BTU adjustment)

Excluded Practitioners:

These 5 contributors to the Peak Oil debate have done excellent studies that unfortunately are limited to more narrowly defined flows than All Liquids:

   Regular Conventional Crude - Albert Bartlett (USA) ... actually, see his projection in our new RCC Scenarios chart!

   RCC + NGL - Ken Deffeyes (USA), Seppo Korpela (USA), Renato Guseo (Italy), Kuwait University (Nashawi et al) & John Walsh (Canada)

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Scenarios Chart Archive with text for 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

Scenarios Chart Archive w/o text "charts only" for 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

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