Oct Update

TrendLines October Yukon Politics Update

We've added October polling numbers to our database and again dropped off much of the July numbers to our renowned rolling (avg) "Poli-Poll" for the Yukon's 18 Ridings. See the Press Release following the graphs for more results including our current Leg' Projection, Popular Opinion Survey, the Yukon Federal Riding and the Secession from Canada graph...

The following graphs reflect opinion up to Oct 30th. There were no lead changes in October. We introduce Dale Cheeseman as an unofficial flag bearer for the Liberals in Porter Creek North. Glenn Hart, our "Red Lantern" Incumbent since August, remains the YP's most vulnerable MLA & Cabinet Minister mired at 17% popular vote support (or lack of). Eric Fairclough has bumped Dennis Fentie as being the Incumbent with the largest popular vote (72%).

* denotes an unofficial candidate

Our sincere thanx for this contribution from Matt of Minto (Palmerston) Ontario:

The Press Release (2005/12/02):

TrendLines October Yukon Politics Update: Larry Bagnell has Huge Early Lead

Judas Creek, YT - Larry Bagnell appears truly formidable in today's release of the TrendLines October Yukon Politics Update. The survey, a rolling average of calls to 256 Decided Yukoners from Aug 1 - Oct 30 shows the Liberal Incumbent with 54% of popular opinion support, more than double the combined 25% for the NDP and 20% Conservative Party support. Neither of the two challenging Parties have had Nomination Meetings for the upcoming January Election to this point.

The Liberal Party is not as fortunate on the National scene where today's TrendLines Riding Projection shows that present polling analysis would indicate that Paul Martin is poised to lose 42 MP's and the right to govern.

The Yukon is now less than 365 days from the required Territorial General Election. In polling of 324 Decided Yukoners, there were no lead changes in results tallied for the 18 Electoral Districts. The Copperbelt By-Election has since confirmed the TrendLines lead of Arthur Mitchell of the Liberal Party.

This indicates that had Premier Fentie called a General Election for October, his Yukon Party would have retained only six of their present 11 seats, resulting in a Minority NDP Gov't under Todd Hardy with 8 seats adding McIntyre-Takhini, Porter Creek North & Riverdale North to his tally. This indicates the defeat of Incumbents John Edzerza, Jim Kenyon & Speaker Ted Staffen respectively. Pat Duncan would have been joined by Arthur Mitchell, Sue Edelman in Riverdale South (an unofficial candidate) and a phantom winner in Porter Creek Centre; again indicating the defeat of Glenn Hart and Archie Lang.

In developments since the poll, the resignation from the Yukon Party of Peter Jenkins would suggest the YP fortunes would be pared to 5 seats with the former Deputy Premier sitting as an Independent, should he run for re-election in Klondike Riding.

Yukon Riding Projection

The highest support in any one Riding is had by Eric Fairclough with 72% in Mayo-Tatchun. He has displaced Premier Dennis Fentie in Watson Lake who still garners a respectable 69% while Lorraine Peter maintains 67% support in Vuntut Gwitchin. Most threatened Incumbents at this point are Glenn Hart of Riverdale South with only 17% and Archie Lang in Porter Creek Centre with 22% and Speaker Ted Staffen at 28%. Jim Kenyon, while still facing defeat, has made substantial gains since September. In 2002, Gary McRobb had highest individual support with 65% in Kluane.

Overall Territorial popular opinion does not mean much in the first-past-the-post electoral system, but it is of some significance that the NDP with 36% has gained the lead for the first time in a TrendLines survey. Liberal fortunes also improved in October as that Party is now in a virtual tie with the Yukon Party having gained 3% in the month and sit at 32%. Compared to the last election, and adjusting for the Independent component, this represents a loss of 10% for the Yukon Party, a gain of 8% by the NDP and a 1% lift for the Liberal Party. "Concentration of support is more important than the overall numbers" cautioned Hutter. "As a number cruncher, i must remind all that in the 2002 Election, the NDP were two per cent behind the Liberals in total votes cast on Election Day but attained four more seats!"

TrendLines also has a running poll asking Yukoners whether they would agree to Secede from the rest of Canada with BC & Alberta. That number dropped 3% to 14% in October. Old Crow leads the break-away movement with 42% willing, followed by the Southern Lakes at 39%. That is offset by several of the Electoral Districts that are as low as 5% support.

Based on the 324 Yukoners that were randomly selected from the 77 Polling Divisions of the 18 Electoral Districts, this scientific survey and running average poll was conducted from July 25-Oct 30 2005 and has an Avg margin of error of 5% on the Secession Poll (incl 3% Undecided), the Federal Yukon Riding Poll (11% Undecided) & the YTG Popular Opinion Poll (7% Undecided); 23% for Copperbelt Riding (final tab based only on Nov 16 calls with 11% Undecided) and 20% avg for each of the other 17 individual YTG Electoral Districts (overall 7% Undecided) used in the Yukon Riding Projections, 19 times in 20. In the running (avg) polls, new calls are added to the database whilst dropping the oldest. TrendLines, active in economic and political affairs since 1989, is renowned for its Federal Riding Projection that illustrates how many MP's each Party is likely to win if a Canadian General Election were called. Commentary, a new Blog and a variety of other polls and graphs on a variety of subjects are available at the firm's website, www.TrendLines.ca and Hutter may be contacted via graphs@TrendLines.ca for questions, comments or to contract their varied consultive services.

As background profile, Freddy Hutter of TrendLines has been active in politics since watching the Trudeau leadership bid in 1968 and his Poli-Sci days at Univ of Waterloo where he says socialism thrived. Due to his political savvy and pulse on public opinion, he has in the past accepted invitations to act as a resource person and Board of Director for the NDP, Liberal, Reform, Reform-Ontario Parties on the Outside. That tradition continues in the Yukon and Hutter has been welcomed as a Director to several Societies as well as the Conservative and Yukon Parties since his arrival last November. When not in election mode, his career has included research in the fields of global climate change with respect to long term solar cycles and a unique presentation of the depletion of global oil reserves. The TrendLines website had visitors from over 75 nations this Autumn. He does real estate analysis, real estate and business financing, economic analysis, web design, and as a small business coach, is a casual instructor of Entrepreneurship for First Nations at Yukon College. His phone canvasser and soul mate is former Solidarity activist, Evalina Zamana, now a proud Canadian Citizen and a financial planner with a specialty in Registered Education Savings Plans (RESP's). They moved to Judas Creek with their Hungarian sheep dog, a Kuvasz named Topaz, from the BC's Sea-to-Sky Corridor. Hutter hails from Kitchener-Waterloo and Woodstock while Zamana's hometown is Bialystok, Poland.
Copyright 2005.

contact:
Freddy Hutter, Political Analyst
TrendLines
867.660.5533
604.648.9473.fax
PO Box 45, Tagish YT Y0B1T0
graphs@TrendLines.ca

Send email to Freddy Hutter with questions or comments about this web site Copyright © 1989-2010 TrendLines Research ~ Last modified: August 25, 2010

Send email to Freddy Hutter with questions or comments about this web site
Copyright © 1989-2010 TrendLines Research ~ Last modified: August 25, 2010