I'm pleased to tell TRENDLiners this past Winter 86% of
visitors were International (a record 125 nations: most from USA,
France, Germany, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Italy &
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Members & Media
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posted to the FreeVenue in the last 30 days. FreeVenue
charts are generally posted 90-days after the guidance
release @ MemberVenue
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Trendlines Peak Oil
TRENDLines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-1 Scenarios:
May 27th delayed FreeVenue public release of
Feb 27th MemberVenue guidance ~
Today's release updates only my own Tier-1 Outlook (Hutter Peak Scenario-2500)
Worst Case Scenario
Consensus based on
14-model Tier-1 avg:
98 Mbd in 2029
Post-peak Decline Rate 'til 2050:
1.0 %/yr avg
The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted: 2043
The year flow retreats below today's
The year flow drops to ½ of today's 89-Mbd: 2085
The year we virtually run out of oil:
2296 (less than 8-Mbd &
4,305 Gb (1,319-Gb consumed to 2012/12/31 excl 6-Gb BTL)
Proved Reserves to be consumed from 2013 'til 2029 Peak:
Today's Global Depletion:
31% of URR (Net Depletion Rate: 1.1%/yr)
click chart for
Tier-2 & many more graphs, tables & guidance...
All Liquids URR/EUR
101-Mbd PEAK 2030
2013 flow: 90-Mbd
Shale & Kerogen
Deep Sea & Arctic
1,319 Gb PAST
+2 Mbd BTL
May 25th delayed FreeVenue public release of Feb 25th MemberVenue
guidance ~monthly update of Freddy Hutter's
Peak Scenario-2500 Oil Depletion
Post-Peak Decline Rate:
avg 'til 2050
2013 Capacity: 95-Mbd incl global Surplus Capacity of
(consumed to 2012/12/31: 1,319-Gb excl 6-Gb BTL)
The year flow retreats below today's 90-Mbd:
2043 ... & ½ of today: 2100
The year 50% of URR consumed:
The year All Liquids
(excl BTL) runs out:
2496 ... & Light Sweet Crude (RCO):
Underlying Decline Rate Observed
(3.22 Mbd) of
click graph for
more PS-2500 charts, tables & guidance...
PS-2500's Year 2035 Outlook
a view of the two competing
All Liquids forecast camps and the resultant "scary
wedge". Both assume
5.0-Mbd Surplus Capacity & Underlying
Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) rising to 4.8% from 3.6% today:
(a) First, an ultra conservative
(low) trajectory with an apparent 92-Mbd Peak in 2015, declining to 20-Mbd by 2035 (hashed lime line).
Worst Case Scenario, this projection assumes the oil sector will
develop no further production capacity in the future other than the announced-to-date MegaProjects.
Second, the more plausible (high) production profile where new
Megaprojects will avg 3.9 Mbd/yr thru 2035 (4.3-Mbd/yr current trend),
culminating with 101-Mbd Peak Oil in 2030.
Its optimistic trajectory is down from past estimates as high as 121-Mbd
'cuz the Consumption growth rate has waned since 2004 due to
demand destruction associated with triple-digit prices.
practical terms, recent history (since 1970) has shown the pessimistic projection
line (hashed lime line) incrementally rises thru time to meet the
past production trend line (solid lime line).
In short, the Scary Wedge as shown has been as ominous for
over four decades but the start point constantly gets pushed back to
Underlying Decline Rate Observed:
of annual global
Flow from global
New Capacity in 2012 was 4.3-Mbd. 3.1-Mbd of this addressed last year's loss via
Underlying Decline Observed (UDO) and the balance raised capacity to
a new record high of 93.6-Mbd.
McPeaksters were stunned to learn year-end global Surplus Capacity
remained an incredible 4.6-Mbd despite their having predicted (again) it would be totally exhausted
should production rise for another year.
In March 2009,
model discovered global UDO has been a significant
factor since way back to 1970. Albeit 120-Mbd of facilities were built
over the past four decades, capacity had only increased by 43-Mbd.
In short, an avg 2.9% of All Liquids annual production had been lost
illustrates long-term global annual UDO (red line), but it is
the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) inset featuring
% change which is most instructive: UDRO
exhibits a tendency to ebb and flow. Further, these cyclical (8.5-yr)
crests correlate with all six recent American Recessions. The crests appear to reflect reduced EOR activity
during economic contractions, no doubt due to capital & cash flow
challenges amid a reduced Demand environment.
UDRO's highest annual surge
(bold red line)
was 6.3% of global All Liquids
production in 1984. The 4.3% & 2.9% crests during the 1991 & 2001 Recessions were followed
by a 2.1% UDRO trough in 2006 - then 3.0% in 2007. The
2007-2013 Structural Greater Depression setback (3.6%) seems to mimic
the belated cycle top in the wake of the back-to-back nature
of the 1980's Structural Severe Recession. The loss factor is expected continue its
secular uptrend, rising to 5.4% by 2050. My study of
USA business cycle recessions (TRI-USA) suggests
UDRO crests may
occur in 2017, 2026, 2034 & 2043; but
with a diminishing effect as the USA becomes less dominant on the global
scene. China GDP will surpass the USA in 2020.
Trendlines Research analysis reveals from 1970 to 2009, 77-Mbd of
new facilities addressed UDO & 43-Mbd raised Extraction Capacity
from 48 in 1969 to 91-Mbd. In short, the oil sector has been
adding 3-Mbd/yr ... or a new Saudi Arabia every three years for four
decades! On the horizon, PS-2500 forecasts 91-Mbd of
facilities will be required by the 2030 PEAK: 15 to increase
Capacity (91 in 2009 to 106-Mbd) and 76-Mbd to address UDO loss over
those 21 years. Added to the 77-Mbd to cover 1970-2009 decline
loss, a total 153-Mbd of Capacity will have been dedicated to this
loss phenomenon over the six decade period.
Oil Stress Premium surges to $18/barrel
delayed FreeVenue public release of Feb 24th MemberVenue guidance ~
USA Refiner Acquisition Crude price averaged $100/barrel in January (up $8
previous month) and is currently 6%
($6) above its $94 Fundamentals Fair Value.
analysis reveals RACrude returned to equilibrium in June
2012 continued improving fundamentals should see price retreat to $86 by 2015Q1, followed by a resumption of the secular uptrend mainly
forced by a 5% annual increase in Extraction Costs (down from 14%
volatility suggests at any time the Stress Premium components (geopolitical
issues, weather events or disaster) could produce severe but temporary spikes.
Barrel Meter models
both predict any
such black swan
would be constrained by the same Price Spike Ceiling which firmly arrested
the 2008 price run @ $129/barrel ($4.11/gal pump).
The PSC represents a definitive Petroleum/GDP ratio where certain demand destruction feedbacks attain critical mass. As
happened in the Summer of 2008, Demand and Price are reversed as alternative
energies, substitution and conservation measures are pursued.
This upper limit is
$154 ($4.54/gal pump) today.
Acquisition Crude price is
volume-weighted avg of three dozen domestic and imported grades and blends
range from a
14% discount for Western Canada Select to a 16% premium for Malaysia
Tapis Light. At this time, RAC is generally $5 higher than
definitive Oil-Cost/GDP Ratios
The natural business-as-usual production scenario would
normally unfold with an All Liquids GEOLOGIC PEAK of
101-Mbd in 2030.
But this course is threatened to be truncated by the very real
prospect of PEAK DEMAND. Starting in 2004, the long-term trend for the growth rate of
global Consumption began to wane. The onset of occasional triple-digit crude
causing demand destruction. Consumers, commerce & institutions are
substituting and conserving. This led to an unexpected OECD
consumption peak in 2005. I have found rising petroleum prices
economic consequences which are indeed predictable at five definitive petroleum/GDP
ratios. These invisible lines-in-the-sand generally rise and
fall in time with
GDP. Three have global implications and two are unique to the
prices will inspire many forms of demand destruction but not to the degree
where the natural Geologic Peak (101-Mbd 2030) is truncated by PEAK DEMAND.
The model suggests RAC price will not
permanently surpass the
Barrier 'til 2035. Ever-rising costs for the marginal barrel
continue as the main forcing for the secular uptrend as
Extraction Cost rises to $166/barrel. One can
expect mini-spikes to occur
Surplus Capacity falls below the critical level of 4-Mbd.
Based on North America's historic 8.5-yr business cycle, the model
builds in price softness during potential USA economic Recessions
in 2017 & 2026 & 2034. Admittedly this conflicts with the
Trendlines Recession Indicator's 2035
horizon which does not yet detect contraction events. In any case, it appears deteriorating share of global
GDP means American downturns will have
decreasing adverse effects on
worldwide GDP and RAC price.
The Barrel Meter
projects nominal RAC price is on
a journey to $336/barrel
- the 2040 target.
route to $2.95/gal
May 23rd delayed
FreeVenue public release of Feb 23rd MemberVenue guidance ~
All-grades retail gasoline averaged $3.39/gal in January ... up 1¢
from the previous monthly avg. After the brief Q1 surge,
gasoline price should settle back well below the Light Vehicle Sales
Barrier. In the absence of this particular headwind, the
opportunity exists for a robust rebound of auto manufacturing/sales
for the foreseeable future. The
model reveals crude oil finally re-achieved price equilibrium in
June 2012 after over three years of frothy exuberance and suggests
environment of improving crude fundamentals lies ahead. As
such, pump price is projected to
slide to $2.95/gal by Feb/2015 ... then resume its secular uptrend.
As seen in the table above, last month's avg Retail Price of $3.39/gal
is comprised of $2.79 Wholesale refinery product & $o.60 Margin.
In turn, Margin is made up of $o.41 Taxes & $o.19 Profit.
Historically, this compares to 54¢
Taxes & 13¢
Profit way back
in Y2k. Crack Spread
(diff betw wholesale & contract crude) was
$0.42/gal ($17.63/barrel) in January. The raw crude
component ($2.37/gal) continues to be volatile, particularly its
Stress Premium price subcomponent (comprised of geopolitical issues, weather
analysis reveals this factor added 44¢/gal in January ... down from 72¢ at the
height of the MENA/Libya episode. Debasement of the USDollar currently adds
45¢/gal to pump prices, down from 58¢ two yeas ago. The tightness of Surplus Capacity
enabling the Iran
sanctions added 32¢ & general Speculation/Hedging activity 14¢/gal
to last month's gas prices.
click chart for more graphs, table & full
guidance at the Gas Pump
TRENDLines Tier-2 Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios:
29th delayed FreeVenue public release of
Jan 29th MemberVenue guidance ~
revision downgrades the 2009 CERA outlook by Peter Jackson from
outlooks by Peter Jackson were introduced to our presentation
in late 2005 and have consistently been the most optimistic of the
Tier-1 scenarios. Unfortunately the analysis methodology
requires updates at least every three years and as such the 2009
version has been downgraded today to Tier-2 status. Earnestly
looking forward to an update...
URR/EUR Comparisons (2012/12/26)
Deep Sea & Arctic
Saudi Arabian Crude
chart for full guidance at URR/EUR venue...
FreeVenue public release of Dec 26th MemberVenue guidance ~
Linearization analysis is a guiding counterweight to
geology/technology based Estimates of Ultimate Economical
Recoverable Resource (URR/EUR). When compared, All
Liquids succumbs to a 3,295-Gb differential, mostly attributable to
Bitumen, CTL, GTL & Kerogen not yet reflecting their massive potential flows. OTOH, this shortfall is somewhat mitigated by the taint of
influence. BTL is not included in the URR tally, but is indeed
reflected in All Liquids production data. Based on
these linearizations, the world won't run out of light sweet
crude (RCO) until Year 2103.
Regular Conventional Oil Scenarios
2030: Colin Campbell (38-Mbd) vs Freddy Hutter (52-Mbd)
24th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 24th
~ Over the years, there have been only 4 modellers worldwide
who have published long term production profiles for
Regular Conventional Oil ... the light sweet crude: Albert Bartlett
(USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA) &
TRENDLines' own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada).
extraction peaked in May 2005 @ 69-mbd and it appears the midpoint of its
(2,005-Gb) URR/EUR was crossed several months thereafter (Oct/2006). RCO
production declined at an annual rate of 2.2% from 2006-2009 to
63-Mbd, but has since been in plateau. 2012 extraction was
a 64-Mbd pace. Campbell's 2011 Depletion Model continues to extend RCO's
dramatic 2.2%/yr post-peak decline rate thru to 2030.
It also increased RCO's URR by 84-Gb to 2,047-Gb ... a career high
estimate for Colin.
Conversely, the Hutter
(the sole active model) has trimmed last year's URR estimate by
to 2,005-Gb. While Campbell forecasts the annual flow rate
will deteriorate to 38-Mbd by 2030, Hutter takes the position
52-Mbd is more probable. On the longer term, whereas
Campbell predicts the annual Decline Rate softens after 2050,
Hutter sees major resource constraint after 2066.
As a 72% component of
All Liquids, the short-term demise of Regular Conventional
Oil will determine whether Peak Oil is imminent or has another
18 years to play out.
PS-2500 model determined in 2008 the steep RCO decline (2.2% 2006-2009)
was not the result of rapid depletion but rather a mirage masked by
shifts in global Surplus Capacity. As such, Hutter has been
stalwart in his position RCO extraction had entered a 62-Mbd
plateau which will hold 'til 2023, thereby forming a solid foundation for non-conventionals to take
All Liquids to ever increasing heights. With light sweet crude
rising to 64-Mbd in 2012, the universe appears to be unfolding as it should...
click chart for
RCO coverage at the Scenarios venue...
Trendlines Peak Oil Depletion Archive of
Invalidated Outlooks ~
Dec 30th delayed FreeVenue public release of
Sept 30th MemberVenue guidance ~
revision: (a) upgrades to Tier-2 status the formerly Invalidated Outlook
by Jean Laherrère; & (c) downgrades to Invalidated
status (from Tier-2) the Rembrandt Koppelaar 2009 Outlook.
On a sadder note,
another McPeakster effort has bit the dust. The stale-dated
Rembrandt Koppelaar 2009 Outlook has predicted an 89-Mbd Peak in
2014, but another stalwart year by the oil sector saw that milepost
achieved this year already. The scenario has been downgraded
to Invalidated status (from Tier-2).
click chart for
Tier-2, Tier-1, Regular Conventional & many more graphs, tables &
No new Monthly
Consumption Records 'til Oil below $104/barrel
delayed FreeVenue public release of Feb 25th MemberVenue
guidance ~ The pace
of flow rates indicates a new global
Annual Production record
Mbd was set in 2011.
A new global
Quarterly Production record of 89.1 Mbd
was set in 2011Q4.
December 2011 gains distinction for the all time
global Monthly Production record: 89.8 Mbd.
Production is on track to break
the 90 barrier in Feb/2013 and 95 in 2015.
new Quarterly record for Demand
of 88.67 Mbd was set in 2011Q4.
2010 remains the high mark for Monthly Demand:89.5 Mbd ... an incredible leap from the Great Recession
low for Consumption of 82.9-mbd in May 2009.
Because the USA contract crude price currently surpasses
PEAK DEMAND Barrier ($104/barrel), it is improbable
monthly consumption levels will see new highs 'til the oil price
retreats below this critical petroleum/GDP threshold...
delayed FreeVenue public release of Feb 24th MemberVenue
Despite OPEC quota restrictions, Saudi Arabia remains atop Russia as World's top
producer. In the process, the Kingdom broke its own annual record
(10.9 Mbd) and again set a new global quarterly record (11.3 Mbd) and
a global monthly record (11.4 Mbd) as it boosted flows in its
previously reluctant role as
swing producer to replace lost Libya extraction. That said, it
is improbable Russia's 1987 annual/quarterly/monthly records (11.5
Mbd) will ever be surpassed.
from shale oil (light tight) is the USA in 3rd place with flow of 9.2
are: China (4.1), Canada (3.5), Iran (3.5) & Mexico (2.9 Mbd).
All Liquids Underlying Decline Rates Observed in 2011:
Worldwide 3.2% (2.8-mbd), Saudi Arabia 3.1% (0.34-mbd) &
USA 2.5% (0.22-mbd)
Saudi Arabia MSC & Supply Outlook ... an update
March 31st delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 31st MemberVenue guidance ~ Guidance from the
Kingdom and/or Saudi Aramco with respect to MegaProjects & Surplus Capacity has
been limited to fine-tuning over the past three years. OPEC mandated quota restrictions had kept Supply below
national targets in 2008, 2009 & 2010, but geopolitical issues surrounding
Libya & Iran drew KSA from its reluctant role as swing producer. Saudi
Arabia set new monthly/quarterly/annual
production records in 2011. In 2009 I predicted that year
would prove to be the Kingdom's Peak Year for
Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC). Today it appears the 12.5-Mbd high
will be unchallenged and high idle capacity (2.0-Mbd) continues to hide this
milestone event. Last week's
URR Linearization update re-confirms the Kingdom appears to be inflating
their total resource base. In 2009 I revealed their claim of 900-Gb
was more like 212-Gb. Nothing has changed. All the announced MegaProjects are
still underway. Due to the subdued Demand growth since the Great Recession, final commissioning of Manifa
will be stretched out to 2014. The
preservation of Surplus Capacity reconciled with new construction indicates
the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) for regular conventional oil has
climbed from 2.5% to to 3.6%
per annum over the past two years. RCO extraction should remain above
8.0-Mbd 'til 2021.
click a chart
to visit the Saudi Arabia venue...
Update of legacy Saudi Arabia Crude Production Forecasts by Husseini
March 31st delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 31st MemberVenue guidance ~ Here's my annual look-see
at how the legacy predictions by Sadad al Husseini and
theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford & Ace (Joker) have performed against facts on
the ground. Admittedly, all efforts have been stymied to some degree
by OPEC mandated quota restrictions. This is exactly why it was decided
back in Feb/2009 to depict my Peak Scenario-2500's as Maximum
Sustainable Capacity ... not Production. The PS-2500 continues to project 2009 as Peak
Year for MSC. The Kingdom's 3.6% Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)
for regular conventional oil makes it almost impossible for any future announced megaprojects to have
magnitude necessary to breach 2009's 12.5-Mbd high. Based on last week's
estimate of KSA URR nudges up slightly to 211-Gb. The Husseini Outlook takes a similar view with
its production high (2023) of only 11-Mbd. The Ace (joker?) over @ TOD forecasts
extraction going south after 2011. Meanwhile, the infamous high-case
worst-case scenarios by theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford continue to be emblematic
of the agenda-driven rhetoric, fabrication of data, misinformation and mass
hysteria at that place. Since 2002, McPeakster websites & pundits have
been the best thing to ever have come along for oil sector shareholders & NOCs
since the invention of the automobile.
The dozens of alarmist "news feeds" disseminated by McPeaksters each week
contribute directly to the bottom line of Producers via windfall profits.
Year 2100 co2 ppm target is 348 ... not 695-730 indicated by IPCC
premise of unlimited Fossil Fuel Resource
March 29th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 29th MemberVenue
guidance ~ Update of the annual co2-GHG analysis by Trendlines
Research reveals it is quite improbable co2 will ever attain the 695
ppm level for Year 2100 indicated by Mauna Loa gains, or the 730-ppm
suggested by the trend of global readings. Both lofty figures
wrongly assume there is an unlimited supply of coal, oil and natural
gas to quench the appetite of developing BRIC nations. On the
contrary, today's study reveals current estimates of remaining
fossil fuel resource and declining growth rates for demand should
see fossil fuel emissions peak in 2029. This event would
result in a maximum co2 atmospheric concentration of 423-ppm (393
today), declining to 348-ppm by Year 2100.
This analysis shows
atmospheric co2 concentrations and the related growth rate both
rise (see coral & yellow lines). Since the 60's, annual increases have risen from less than 1ppm
to 3ppm/yr. If there is good news, it is that concentrations
of the 16 Greenhouse Gases as
tracked by the NASA GHG Index are growing more slowly (1.2% annually
rather than the near 3%/yr back in the early 80's. This is thanx to headway in the methane and CFC fronts. The infamous Al Gore
graph spike (the stepladder one) is pure fantasy. Its absurd
800-ppm peak was based on an upward spike in co2 associated with the
1998 El Niño. This episode is viewable via the co2 emission
growth rate in the chart below. The 2001 IPCC Report, while
well intentioned, applied an extrapolated exponential increase in
co2 and temp's based on that anomaly.
a chart to view more charts & discussion @ my Climate Change venue....
Fossil Fuels Contribution to Atmospheric co2 Concentrations:
423ppm Peak in 2029
March 28th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 28th MemberVenue
guidance ~ The 2011 annual analysis by Trendlines Research of
fossil fuels emissions indicates their contribution should result in
a peak of atmospheric co2 concentration of 423-ppm in 2029. It
should be noted that while
rising co2 concentration levels exhibit a correlated upwards
total emissions, the decay pulse would indicate residual co2 will not
follow the post peak downward path of emissions as quickly. Most co2
remains for a hundred years and traces linger for almost a
millennium. By Year 2100, co2 will have declined to only
348-ppm ... taking us back to 1980 concentrations. The long-term effect of this anthropogenic influence
appears to be a delaying of the next glacial event from 7000 AD to the next
harmonic in 40000 AD.
Underlying the simultaneous total emissions & co2 concentration peak
in 2029 are a coal emissions peak in 2025;
PEAK DEMAND of
All Liquids in 2029 (100-Mbd); and a
natural gas emissions peak in 2035. These updated findings of
Freddy Hutter's original Dec/2007 study continues to contrast
substantially with the consensus view represented by the Hansen &
Kharecha white paper (NASA Nov/2007) suggesting co2 will peak @
585-ppm in Year 2100. It assumes a 96-Mbd oil peak in 2016 - but is based on a 2003
study by EIA/Wood.
Trendlines Research study is founded on a premise that the GDP/Energy Demand scenarios within IPCC 2001
were overly optimistic in the sense they assumed the
growth accompanying increases in population and rising disposable
incomes in the BRIC nations would be
fueled by fossil fuels. Unfortunately, there isn't enuf oil, coal
gas left in the ground to feed the magnificent projected Demand.
Historic Tracking of (ASPO-IE) Colin Campbell Depletion Model:
FreeVenue public release of Dec 27th MemberVenue guidance ~
update adds Colin Campbell's May/2011 Outlook. It re-confirms his
All Liquids peaked @ 85-mbd in 2008 (despite EIA data to the
contrary) and is founded on a
2,52334-Gb URR (up 89-Gb from last year). The chart tracks all the production profile
revisions over his career. Its forecasts of Peak Year have ranged from 1989 to
2012. In fact, December marks the 22nd anniversary of Campbell's
initial All Liquids declaration that oil had indeed peaked. To be
accurate ... a sub-peak. In Dec/1989, he declared All Liquids production had reached its physical limits @
66-mbd and would never again attain the 67-Mbd Peak back in 1979.
Campbell's estimates for Peak Rate
span from that virgin call of a 66 Mbd sub-peak in 1989 to his 2008
forecast of a
97 Mbd peak in 2010. His underlying All Liquids URR estimates range from
1575-Gb (1989) to 2900-Gb (2002). TRENDLiners may have notice my last three
chart revisions have excluded Campbell's 1991,
1996, 1997 & 1998 projections. I determined those studies forecast Regular Conventional
Oil ... not All Liquids, and only led to unnecessary
His current (2011) forecast for RCO can be compared to the only three
other such projections for light sweet crude at my
click here to see
how the latest (2011) Campbell Depletion Model measures up against
the only other three
addressing Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude)
for full discussion & more at the Peak Oil History venue...
Oil Initially in Place (OIIP):
4,174-Gb (doubled since 1995) & rising 22-Gb for each $1/barrel crude price
Remaining Resource: 2,886-Gb (doubled since Y2k)
Remaining Resource/Annual Production Ratio: 90 (record low:
44 in 1995)
Reserves: 1,256-Gb (doubled since 1978) & growing by 49-Gb/yr
Past Consumption: 1,288-Gb
(to 2011/12/31 excl 5-Gb BTL)
March 26th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 26th MemberVenue
guidance ~ Today's
compilation update figures from BP, Brandt & Farrell, Campbell, EIA, ExxonMobil, Laherrère, Total
& my own
Today's URR study Avg is 118-Gb
higher than last year and 82-Gb less than the avg inferred within
the last monthly update of our 16-model
Tier-1 Scenarios Presentation.
Its slightly different mix of practitioners has a URR Avg of
URR Growth Rate Vs Consumption
Chart#2 compares the
growth rate of the 22-model Avg with OGJ & BP. It is seen the
recent high-price regime fuelled favourable economics of previously
thought fringe contingent (sub-commercial) resources.
Discovery, development and technology advancements (especially of
non-conventionals) fuelled a growth pace of 128-Gb/yr (4.9%) since
1996. This far surpasses URR's growth of 30-Gb/yr (2.3%) from
prices ($129/barrel high - July/2008) drove discoveries,
exploration, and conversion of sub-commercial (contingent) resources
over to the economic side of the ledger. But, subsequent
sub-$90 pricing was a serious dampener of that headiness.
Viewed via the 3-yr rolling average of the 22-models, additions to
URR peaked @ 420-Gb in 2008, the growth rate slipping to 0-Gb in
2011. My analysis reveals over the last ten years URR has
risen 22-Gb for every $1/barrel price increase. Similarly,
each higher dollar added 2-Gb of Proved Reserves.
click a chart for
full discussion, tables & related graphs @ URR/EUR venue...
Sans ASPO backdating ... no longer "running out of oil"
25th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 25th MemberVenue
guidance - As I predicted
in 2007, global All Liquids URR/EUR is headed for 6-Tb ... not the
ultra conservative resource projected by Colin Campbell of ASPO-IE.
Colin Campbell published his first Historical Discoveries graph
in 1996. It was based on his estimated URR of 1800
billion barrels (Gb) and was comprised of 1650-Gb of
Discovered crude & a
allowance for probable Future Discoveries. His 2007 version
(at left) is misleading in the sense that its backdating methodology
gives the perception of "a well running dry".
My 2007 chart
revealed for the first time how ASPO had stealthily hid record levels of Discoveries &
Reserve Growth by clever and non-transparent backdating. The
chart's hashed yellow bars illustrate what this ASPO Discoveries Chart would look like w/o the
deceptive backdating. Now, four years later, the tall lime
bars emphasize dramatically why Colin Campbell & ASPO have never
updated their classic graph!
The gloomy chart was
given wide dissemination at a time when ASPO had been hijacked by
the McPeaksters ... a fringe fraternity that has been promoting
"imminent" Peak Oil since 1989. I consider the premise behind
the practice of backdating as sound. However, McPeaksters have
chose to depict the measure with an utter disregard for
transparency. IMHO, this was done to mislead and cause
alarmism. Today's revelations leave McPeaksters stymied in defending
their "well running dry" or "running out of oil" rhetoric.
chart depicts BP's increases in URR for 2007, 2008, 2009 & 2010 ...
increasing their own URR to 2,787-Gb. In comparison, my 22-model
averages 3,820-Gb &
Tier-1 Depletion Scenarios
project infers All Liquids URR is 4,330-Gb. My own
PS-2500 model presently gauges URR to be 7.928-Gb. Colin
Campbell has raised his URR by another 89-Gb to 2,523-Gb this year.
The McPeakster doom
position is completely
undermined by the realization the growth trend has resumed its
post-2006 pace, with an avg 66-Gb/yr in additions by BP. That's double the rate
of annual consumption! The prospect of Discoveries dwindling to nothingness as shown in
ASPO's 2007 depiction is absurd. Campbell expects only 75-Gb of
future discoveries of Regular Conventional &
19-Gb of non-Conventional resource over the next century.
click chart for full
discussion & URR venue...
Compared to 13 Recognized Long-Term 2035 Crude Oil Price
24th delayed FreeVenue
public release of Dec 24th guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ Today's
chart compares the
Trendlines Barrel Meter
monthly revision to updated annual price outlooks by Adam
Sieminski of Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, OPEC, Boone Pickens & Chris Skrebowski.
A new annotation added
to the chart today is Freddy Hutter's "Peak Demand Barrier".
In Oct/2011 it was proposed in his
TrendLines Barrel Meter model
that global oil consumption ceases to grow when
the USA contract crude price exceeds this definitive Petroleum/GDP
ratio. The thesis further suggests the natural Geologic Peak
of 103-Mbd in 2031 will be pre-empted by Peak Demand upon permanent
breach of the PDB threshold in 2029 when oil surpasses $213/barrel
hence holding consumption to the 100-Mbd at that juncture.
has been unique in its tracking of oil fundamentals as components of
crude price since 1999. The recent update calculates today's
$103 price to be a 27% premium over crude's Fundamental Fair Value. US$ Debasement
since early 2009 remains a $15 price component. This new
revision proposes spiking activity in 2008 & 2011 is related to
newborn cyclicity within oil fundamentals and additional spikes can
be expected in 2015, 2018 & 2021.
Barrel Meter currently
forecasts that failing either any major geopolitical event or OPEC
intervention at their June convention, much improving fundamentals
should see oil decline to $63 by Sept/2012. It maintains a
price ceiling to any spiking activity of the monthly avg exists as
represented by another definitive Petroleum/GDP ratio ... the Demand
Between these two lines is the price point (currently $121) which
can induce economic Recessions among the G-20 nations (as occurred
in 2009). The
reveals a similar critical price level - the USA Light Vehicle Sales
Barrier - the price at which rising gasoline prices cause collapse
in the auto manufacturing sector. This occurred in 1980, 1990,
2007 & Spring 2011. It is $3.37/gallon ($102/barrel oil)
imports data on projected extraction costs,
spare production capacity & business cycles from the
Peak Scenario 2500
depletion model. A similar analysis for
gasoline price is featured via the
click chart for more
price discussions, tables & graphs...
Production Records: New Monthly Consumption
Records Improbable 'til Crude Prices Subside
2012 delayed FreeVenue
public release of Nov 7th MemberVenue guidance ~
The pace of flow rates indicates a new global
Annual Production record
Mbd is being set in 2011.
A new global
Quarterly Production record of 89.0 Mbd
was set in 2011Q3.
September 2011 gains distinction for the all time
global Monthly Production record: 89.1 Mbd.
Production is on track to break 90 in
January 2013 and 95 in 2019.
Quarterly record for Demand
of 89.3 Mbd was set in 2011Q3. September
2011 also set a new high mark for Monthly Demand:89.9 Mbd ... an incredible leap from the Recession
low for Consumption of 82.5-mbd in May 2009.
Because the USA contract crude price currently surpasses
Barrel Meter's Peak
Demand Barrier ($102/barrel), it is improbable
consumption levels will increase 'til oil prices
July 2008 production
smashed monthly records with a new marker of 86.7-mbd
It is indeed ironic
that as McPeaksters announced for the 20th time last Summer that
2008 was Peak "for sure" ... annual flow rate was a full 20-mbd over
their virgin declaration!
Pundits at theOilDrum, PeakOil.com, Jeff Rubin & forecaster
extraordinaire Matt Simmons
were the main
of the disruptive 2007/2008 rumours that both the giant Ghawar well
& general Saudi Arabia production were in Terminal Decline.
Feb 2007 ~ This graph is the new
battle flag of theOilDrum forum. Yup, all
the marbles on one call. Remember them? They
are the pundit alarmists (Mainstream Media calls them
wacko's) that in October 2004 published that the USA was
entering an economic Recession. Oops. Well, they're back...
TOD's February 2007 prediction:
shows that Saudi Arabia crude supply of 8.7-mbd of January 2007 is headed to
by Autumn 2011
... or as low as 4-mbd!
They published it the exact same day that
published a graph showing Saudi Arabia won't decline
until 2025 & he changed the ASPO Peak Oil Date to 2011
So, who has got it very wrong? TOD or ASPO?
Let's see if TOD can do better than Matt Simmons, eh!
Note - Saudi Arabia's supply output target for Autumn
10.5-mbd ... right off the top of his graph!
2009 Update: To the chagrin of TheOilDrum
McPeaksters, KSA extraction rose from 8.6 to 9.5-mbd by June 2008, at
which time Saudi Aramco was forced to submit to OPEC quota restrictions.
Even after these production cuts, KSA is still far above the 7.2-mbd
predicted for March 2009 by TOD's Stuart Staniford.
More on KSA
June 19, 2011
Update: It just gets worse over at theOilDrum forecast dept.
Was crude flow 4.9-mbd on April 1 2011? Or was crude 6.6-mbd?
No ... Saudi Arabia regular conventional crude oil was 9.2-mbd !
Matt Simmons, forecaster extraordinaire!
PEAK TOD-USA & TOD-Europe ... theOilDrum Hijacked by
TheOilDrum's counter says it all:
TOD has Peaked.
Several weeks ago, i warned the new doomster Moderator
(Leanan) that the forum was collapsing in remarkably
similar fashion to YahooEnergyResources, a discussion
Group hijacked by the
McDoomers back in 2004.
Feb 2007 ~ Peak Oil Theory has
been replaced as focus at theOilDrum by 100's of
ad nauseum daily posts on
DieOFF, the coming
USA Depression, pending
collapse of the world's currencies & hate posts against
their President, Congress, the Federal Reserve, all
agencies' statistics, the IMF, the UN & anybody that
doesn't agree that Oil peaked in 2005. I
predicted in January
that the conversation was about to deteriorate to
discussing human poop for fertilizer use by their
nihilist posters that moved to the mountains and are
awaiting the anti-christ and the Global Warming induced
Great Flood. Well, last week "humanure" was
the topic of the day by
the lunatic fringe that has hijacked that
once excellent forum. It's
a cult that gleefully
awaits the the collapse of the USA with a desire to turn
the evil Empire into an agrarian society in Old Order
Amish/Mennonites fashion with no electricity, planes or
cars. After almost 2 years, i'm oudda there ~ TOD has
on Climate Change, 2004
Jan 16 2007 ~ In Dec 2003, Samsam Bakhtiari of Iran
proposed via his WOCAP-2 Model that Peak Oil would be upon us in
2006 with a Peak Rate of 81-mbd. We see in this graph
that he miscalculated by 4-mbd (compared to blue line actual).
But now he is telling supporters that his projection excluded some
oils (proc gains). If that was his intent, his pre-forecast
baseline (prior to 2004) should match the RED line. If All
Liquids was indeed his intent, his Black line should mirror the
yellow ASPO line and the green 2003 IEA line. U be the
Bakhtiari has the sole model that suggests a pre-2010 Peak.
Can he hit it out of the park for redemption? Stay tuned ...
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