Backgrounder ~ In 1972, the Club of Rome attempted to shock stakeholders, politicians and policy makers with its Limits to Growth study forecast of All Liquids Peak Oil:  117-Mbd in 1995.  They attempted to promote awareness natural resources are finite, but in jeopardy with growing global population.  This was underscored in 1974 with M K Hubbert's similar prediction:  111-Mbd in 1995 (excluding NGL, deep sea, polar, Orinoco & tar sands).

Because OPEC manipulation truncated both these predictions, Colin Campbell attempted to update the long-term prospects for All Liquids.  The Irish geologist stunned many when in 1989 he declared present All Liquids flow (65.5-Mbd) would never again re-attain its 1979 pre-crisis Peak of 67-Mbd (see all 3 charted).  Well, he was very wrong (88-Mbd today).  This episode made it quite clear the uncertainty & price volatility caused by such pessimistic reports (even by well-intentioned professionals) required formal addressing by the energy sector.  In that regard, we saw OECD's IEA, USA's EIA, OPEC and major IOCs step forward with their own annual & bi-annual long-range projections in an attempt to set the record straight and stabilize the marketplace.

The effort did not last long.  After Y2k, the ranks of McPeaksters (promoters of "imminent" Peak Oil) swelled with a growing element from the lunatic fringe.  Campbell's well-meaning alert was hijacked and discourse deteriorated to the realm of economic and social collapse whilst the world runs out of oil.  As the rhetoric escalated, I thought it would be constructive to provide a platform for objective opposing views of the future.

Trendlines Research has been analysing the world's very best All Liquids depletion profiles (and the not-so-good ones) since 2003.  My database includes six decades of forecast studies.  A year later I commenced to share the charted results at this website.  Back in 2005, the 7-model avg indicated a 94-Mbd PEAK in 2020.  My not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, I am humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 2.5-Mbd/yr:  reduced from 41-Mbd (Campbell 85 & CERA 126) in 2005 to today's 19-Mbd (Skrebowski 94 & ExxonMobil 113) spread.

Interested in who had the best forecast a dozen years ago?  Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

The initial "original six" Depletion Scenarios chart appeared in 2004.  Two years later the presentation had expanded to 13 Outlooks and included an annotation displaying its consensus projection for Peak Date & Peak Rate and a production profile.  After swelling to two dozen models in 2008, it was decided to protect the integrity of the consensus data it provides for international petroleum studies by adding only Tier-1 Scenarios in the future whilst inferior and stale-dated Outlooks would be purged.  This unique depiction has become the hallmark indicator for future oil depletion with worldwide use among global educational institutions, Gov't agencies, stakeholders and policymakers in over 121 nations.

 Peak Oil:  98 mbd in 2028

April 29 2013 delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 29th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's release updates Tier-1 Outlooks by BP & my own Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 and downgrades CERA's outlook to Tier-2 status.

Global production has increased dramatically from the Recession low of 83.1 Mbd (Jan/2009), setting yet another monthly record (89.3-Mbd) in Oct/2012 and a new quarterly record of 89.1-Mbd (2012Q4).  The 2012 year-to-date extraction is on pace to shatter last year's annual record (87.1) with a new mark of 89.0-Mbd and monthly production is poised to break 90 come September, while consensus infers it will crack the 95-Mbd threshold in 2018.

At $92/barrel in November, USA Refiner Acquisition Crude (RAC) is far below the PEAK DEMAND Barrier ($109) as defined and calculated by the TRENDLines Barrel Meter price model.  This enabled the sector to set a new monthly Consumption record in November (90.4-Mbd) after many months of status quo while the PDB was in breach.  International Inventories are presently just under their 5-yr avg and 5% of global capacity is presently idle, eagerly awaiting new Demand from non-OECD nations.  OECD consumption peaked in 2005.

View the World Production Records venue for higher resolution charts of current extraction both at the global level and by the Top 7 nations.  Saudi Arabia is back on top and Canada has overtaken Iran.  Historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future target prices (thru 2040 & 2017) can be perused via Trendlines Barrel Meter & Gas Pump charts.

 Today's Model Reviews

In releasing its third annual long-term outlook this month, BP raises the 2030 peak rate to 104 (from 102) and in so doing becomes the fifth most optimistic projection.

A favourite contribution to this 14-model Depletion study is of course my own Peak Scenario-2500.  The only oil depletion model updated monthly, its current revision reflects two factors:  (a) the projected annual New Capacity build rate to Year 2100 reduced to 4.9-Mbd (from 5.2) & (b) All Liquids URR/EUR decreased by 4-Gb to 6,911-Gb.  Its target for 2050 annual Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) remains 5.5%.

Its GEOLOGIC PEAK scenario currently projects resource constraints will lead to a 101-Mbd production peak (106-Mbd capacity) in 2030.  The model calculates 612-Gb of today's proved reserves (1,360-Gb) will be required by 2030 to enable this unfolding.  Contrary to the many pessimistic visions, it predicts post-peak decline to mid-century will be a manageable 0.8-Mbd/yr.

Meanwhile, its PEAK DEMAND scenario proposes the waning of the Consumption growth rate which began in 2004 will eventually arrest demand levels when USA RAC price permanently surpasses the PEAK DEMAND Barrier.  Because the Barrel Meter presently projects this event will not occur 'til five years after GEOLOGIC PEAK, it appears PEAK DEMAND (2035 @ $257/barrel) will not be the determinant for Peak Oil unless crude prices rise faster than projected.

PS-2500 gauges the pace of Underlying Decline Rate Observed to be 3.5% of All Liquids in 2012 and is destined to rise to 5.5% by mid-Century.  Its cyclicality since 1970 (8.5-yrs) and projected deterioration to 2050 can be viewed via the UDRO chart.  The model estimates 77 Mbd of the 120 Mbd of All Liquids Capacity added since 1970 addressed Underlying Decline Observed.  A further 90-Mbd is required to attain the 106-Mbd capacity target for 2030 within the GEOLOGIC PEAK scenario:  15 to increase present capacity and 75-Mbd addresses future UDO.

PS-2500 optimism for All Liquids continues to be founded on the controversial premise Regular Conventional Oil commenced a 15-year 62-Mbd plateau in 2009, whereas McPeakster gloom has relied on Colin Campbell's failed prediction (RCO chart below) light sweet crude's 2.2%/yr terminal decline rate which commenced in 2006 would carry on thru to 2030.

Since Nov/2009, PS-2500 has incorporated the predictive economic forecasts of the underlying Gas Pump & Barrel Meter  component models.  The Gas Pump currently suggests the price thresholds for its gasoline/GDP ratios are $4.52/gal for its Price Spike Ceiling; $3.47 for its USA Light Vehicle Sales Barrier; and that pump price is en route to $2.89/gal by 2015Q1 before resuming its secular uptrend.  Employing four similar definitive Oil/GDP ratios, the Barrel Meter suggests its Price Spike Ceiling is currently $154/barrel;  the Induced G-20 Recessions Threshold is $127;  the USA Light Vehicle Sales Barrier is $109;  & its Peak Demand Barrier is $109.

The Barrel Meter module has tracked oil & gasoline's price components (fundamental & non-fundamental) since 2004.  Its analysis determines January's $92 USA RACrude was comprised of seven price components:  Extraction ($43/barrel), Lack of Surplus Capacity ($15), USDollar Debasement ($17), Inventory Draw ($1), Stress Premium ($7), Speculation/Hedging Activity ($6) & Excess Margin ($3).  Its unique analysis has determined USA RAC finally found price equilibrium in July 2012 and will resume its secular uptrend in Spring 2015 after dipping to $80 ($75 WTI).  Crude currently trades 3% ($3) below its $95/barrel Fundamentals Fair Value.

Visit the PS-2500 venue for lots more details and charts on non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline Rate Observed & the inherent flaws (and myths) associated with the McPeakster fraternity.

The CERA outlooks by Peter Jackson were introduced to our presentation in late 2005 and have consistently been the most optimistic of the Tier-1 scenarios.  Unfortunately the analysis methodology requires updates at least every three years and as such the 2009 version has been downgraded today to Tier-2 status.  Earnestly looking forward to an update... 

more tier-1 & tier-2 scenarios updates next month...

Further to the 14 Tier-1 models, 21 lesser quality outlooks are regularly charted as Tier-2 scenarios.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Oil projections & 14 Invalidated Outlooks are charted as well.  But, it is the consensus avg of the 14 Tier-1 models which offers up the very best professional guidance, such as the following findings:

 Future Extraction Rates

 Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The consensus avg URR/EUR estimate for the 14 Tier-1 practitioners is 4,305-Gb when one deducts from the nominal avg the volume attributable to renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) as calculated by the Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 model.  It estimates a cumulative 577-Gb BTL will have been produced thru to Year 2325.  This net economic reserves tally compares remarkably well to the 4,174-Gb consensus avg derived by the 22 estimates within our similar URR Study with its slightly different mix of practitioners, some of whom only track conventional liquids.

(January Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

TRENDLines calculates Global Past Consumption (to 2012/12/31) to be 1,325-Gb for All Liquids of which 1,148-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude) & 6-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002.  Via the 14-model consensus avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by Year 2070 (excl BTL).  Annual flow will finally dip below the 8-Mbd threshold in Year 2296 ... signifying the virtual exhaustion of fossil fuels.  From that juncture, only BTL sourced renewable liquids along with the last vestiges of CTL & GTL provide Supply.

Of the Tier-1 model contributors, the lowest URR tally is the 2,560 Gb inferred in the PFC Energy Outlook.  Highest is EIA's 9.0 Tb URR.

 Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2028 98-Mbd PEAK indicated by the 14-model consensus avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-Mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2020 to 2034.  As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the average can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE.  Back in 2005, my first exercise in averaging (seven models) indicated a 94-Mbd PEAK in 2020.  The multi-model consensus avg for PEAK DATE in the Depletion Scenarios' updates since 2005 has ranged from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATE spanning from 91 to 99-Mbd.  All charts from 2004 to today can be viewed on a single page at the exclusive MemberVenue archive.

Today's Tier-1 models' Peak Date ranges from 2015 by Chris Skrebowski to Year 2036 by IEA ... a span of 21 years.

Today's update contains a Peak Rate range from 94-Mbd by Chris Skrebowski to ExxonMobil's 113-Mbd ... a difference of 19-Mbd.

I am truly humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3.1-Mbd/yr.  Today's high-to-low spread of 19-Mbd has been diminished from 41 (Campbell 85 & CERA 126) just seven years ago.  While the pessimists have only upped their forecasts by 1.1-Mbd/yr in that time frame, the optimists have in turn been dropping by 1.9-Mbd/yr.  Trivia alert:  if this unholy methodology continues, by 2018 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a peak rate of "101"...

 Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Using the 15-model consensus avg, and excluding 6-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,319-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,305-Gb consensus avg URR reveals global Depletion of 31% (to 2012/12/31).  Using these metrics, the passing of one-third of URR is near at hand...

The global Gross Depletion Rate (33-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.8%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (2,986-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 1.1%/yr.

The consensus 2028 PEAK occurs at 43% Depletion.  The 50% crossover of the inferred URR avg will occur in 2043.  These results would appear to confirm my long-time position that the classic Hubbert bell curve, itself well designed to forecast maximum production for Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude), may not be applicable as an indicator for projecting the cumulative peak of All Liquids and its seven streams, each with their own unique production profile (see PS-2500).

 Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO).  It is expressed in millions of barrels/day per annum.  More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - appropriately the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO).  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And barring Demand nuances, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since Nov/2007, Peak Scenario-2500 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status.  Its (charted) long-term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually.  This means that of the 120-Mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 77 served to address UDO & only 43-Mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 48 in 1969 to 91-Mbd by year-end 2009.  The UDRO rises & falls with surges coinciding with the American economic Recessions.  Below, the PS-2500 finding is compared to short/medium term practitioner estimates of annual present/future All Liquids UDRO:

   1.7% - Leonardo Maugeri (2012-2020 avg)

   1.9% - Adam Brandt (2007 - sole peer-reviewed contribution)

   2.1% - CERA (2009-2030 avg)

   3.0% - IEA (2011-2035 avg)

   3.5% - Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 (2012, cyclical & rising to 5.5% by 2050)

   4.1% - Matt Simmons (2009-2030 avg)

   4.2% - Jeff Rubin (2009)

   4.5% - EIA (2009-2030 avg)

   4.5% - OPEC (2008)

   4.7% - Chris Skrebowski (2010)

   5.0% - Total (2009)

   5.0% - Deutsche Bank (5% in 2009, rising to 8% by 2030 ... 6.7% avg)

   5.2% - Schlumberger (2009-2030 avg)

   5.25% - Sadad al Husseini (2009)

   6.0% - PFC (by 2030)

   7.0% - UK Energy Research Centre (2009)

   9.0% - consensus at theOilDrum & PeakOildotcom (2009)

 Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline;  often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate.  The TRENDLines 14-model consensus avg declines at 0.9% per annum measured from the 2030 PEAK to Year 2050.  This is quite manageable for policy makers, politicians and stakeholders when compared to the most aggressive rate mathematically possible (2.1%) as illustrated in the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.  Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 7-Mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2325, the consensus decline rate will average 0.9% annually while the WCS grows to 4.0%.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2016 by Chris Skrebowski to Year 2036 by IEA.

The avg post-peak Decline Rates to 2050 within the models ranges from EIA's 0.3%/yr to 2.7%/yr for Statoil.

~

(January Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Post OPEC-Crisis forecasting of an All Liquids PEAK commenced in 1989.  Our archive of pre-2001 projections reveals Jean Laherrère's 1997 Outlook (France) as current title holder for best overall vintage predictions, by merits of its least cumulative errors over a three year span.

Second place goes to Jean Laherrère's 1999 Outlook & third place to EIA's 1995 Int'l Energy Outlook (USA).

I must also add 3 honourable mentions to the Jean Laherrère 1997 Outlook for its best forecast for all three of the monitored years ... all of 'em being accurate to within 1-Mbd!  (rev 11.1218)

 Methodology revisions

a) If an Outlook does not fully address post-peak production Decline, a progressive decline rate (to ultimate R/P = 10) is arbitrarily applied to exhaust its designated URR.

b) Outlooks exhibiting extreme "doglegs" not reflective of conventional/non-conventional transitions, but rather created by our reconciliation with URR risk are downgraded to Tier-2 status

c) To improve the integrity, accuracy and due diligence of both the Scenarios illustrated and more importantly their cumulative Average, Outlooks with unreasonably optimistic medium term flow rates have been routinely disqualified since Feb/2008.  In the spirit of transparency, Trendlines Research has been publishing the qualifying threshold:  via current MegaProject analysis, we calculate the 2014 potential flow rate to be 97.6-mbd (incl Surplus Capacity and UDO discrepancy), albeit the probable rate is 90.8-mbd (PS-2500) or 95.3-mbd via IEA 2011 MTOGM.

It is suggested inferred flow rates breaching the 97.6-Mbd 2014 threshold to the upside are seriously flawed.  This newer rate gives 6.8-mbd latitude above the probable 90.8-mbd target rate.  It is felt this is overly generous but grants consideration to differing opinions by modellers wrt Surplus Capacity & Underlying Decline Observed.  To date, 5 Outlooks have been downgraded to Tier-2 status due to this trigger.

d) Where a practitioner provides two or more Outlooks, we often use discretion to feature the more conservative version & their "Hail Mary" scenario is relegated to the Tier-2 presentation.

e) Scroll down to view Footnotes for:  Tier-1 Scenarios, Tier-2 & "Hail Mary" Scenarios & Invalidated Archive Scenarios.

f) Scroll further for the 1989-2011 Colin Campbell Depletion Model tracking,  Regular Conventional Crude tracking & Excluded Practitioners

g) For comparative purposes, all Scenarios are adjusted to the 2012 EIA All Liquids baseline and thus their Peaks and mileposts may vary from published data

h)  In the interest of data integrity for the 15-model Trendlines consensus average, Outlooks may be downgraded to Tier-2 after a failure to update after 36 months

i) Where an Outlook fails to address BTL (biofuels-to-liquid), a 5-Mbd BTL flow is attributed to its exhaustion tail

j) Post-peak decline rates are calculated from first year of decline to Year 2050.  Previous to Nov/2011, the rate was measured to 10-Mbd exhaustion threshold.

Underlying Decline Observed (UDO), Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) & Underlying Decline Rate (UDR) are terms coined by Freddy Hutter of TRENDLines in our 2008/11/12 & 2007/12/19 Depletion Scenarios updates

"McPeakster":  coined by Freddy Hutter of TRENDLines in our 2008/2/11 Scenarios update

"McDoomer":  coined by Freddy Hutter of TrendLines in our 2009/1/23 PS-2500 update, but he originated the term at the PeakOildotcom forums in June 2008

"G-20 Recessions Threshold" was coined by Freddy Hutter in the Feb/2010 Barrel Meter Discussions

The USA "Light Vehicle Collapse Barrier" (Feb/2011) was coined by Freddy Hutter in the Gas Pump Discussions.

"Peak Demand Barrier" was coined by Freddy Hutter of TRENDLines in the Oct/2011 update of PS-2500 (2011/10/17)

The "Price Spike Ceiling" threshold was coined by Freddy Hutter of TRENDLines in the February 2012 update of Barrel Meter Discussions & Gas Pump Discussions.  From Nov/2009 it was labelled the "Demand Destruction Barrier"

"Geopolitical Fear Premium" was coined in March 2008 & "Media Noise-du-jour" & "Stress Premium" were coined by Freddy Hutter of TRENDLines in the March 2012 & July 2012 updates of Barrel Meter Discussions.

Also, please visit our 22-model URR Estimates venue for a similar composite addressing of this topic.  Please email me if u can suggest a worthy Presentation candidate, new Outlooks, questions, comments or permissions.  Thanx to all that participate and provide feedback...

Tier-2 & Archived Invalidated Outlooks - The compilation above has at times included Outlooks which are still valid but have become stale-dated.  And some Outlooks have unconventional definitions or suspect due diligence.  I call these Tier-2 candidates.  Then there are situations where Tier-1 model practitioners' releases included two or more scenarios.  I usually choose to depict the conservative case, leaving the other "optimistic" case in limbo.

Thus, presented below are our 2 depictions of 35 inferior Peak Oil Depletion Projections based on the data of:  Kjell Aleklett (Sweden), Ali Samsam Bakhtiari's WOCAP (Iran), Pierre-René Bauquis (France), Brandt-Farrell (USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), William Carlson (USA), CERA (USA), Club of Rome (USA), Duncan-Youngquist (USA), EIA-Guy Caruso (USA), EIA-Glen Sweetnam (USA), Energy Watch Group/Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik (Germany), EU WETO/Poles (EU), Robert Hirsch (USA), 2 by M King Hubbert (USA), Sadad Ibrahim al Husseini (Saudi Arabia), IHS (France), ITPOES (UK), Rembrandt Koppelaar (Netherlands), Jean Laherrère (France), Ray Leonard of Kuwait Energy, Michael Lynch (USA), Leonardo  Maugeri (Italy-USA), Charles Maxwell (USA), Richard Miller (BP-UK), Peter Odell (Netherlands), OPEC (Vienna), Fredrik Robelius (Sweden), Royal Dutch Shell (Netherlands), Jeff Rubin (Canada), Nansen Saleri (USA), Matt Simmons (USA) & Wood Mackenzie (Scotland):

Trendlines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-2 Scenarios:  April 29 2013 delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 29th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's revision downgrades the 2009 CERA outlook by Peter Jackson from Tier-1.

The CERA outlooks by Peter Jackson were introduced to our presentation in late 2005 and have consistently been the most optimistic of the Tier-1 scenarios.  Unfortunately the analysis methodology requires updates at least every three years and as such the 2009 version has been downgraded today to Tier-2 status.  Earnestly looking forward to an update...

Outlooks within the Tier-2 presentation are still viable forecasts but exhibit one or more deemed flaws:

Stale-dated:  CERA 2009, Pierre-René Bauquis 2008, EIA-Sweetnam 2008, EU WETO/POLES 2007, IHS 2007, Kuwait Energy-Leonard 2007, Robelius 2007, Wood Mackenzie 2007, EIA-Caruso 2005  & Lynch 1996

Poor reconciliation with URR - Low projected Peak and/or overly aggressive post-peak decline rate results in a future "dogleg"  to exhaust remaining resource:  Koppelaar 2009 (2030) & Robelius 2007 (2050)

Overly optimistic medium term targets - 2014 is only three years away.  Megaproject analysis suggests flow rate will be 92-mbd.  Considering practitioner differences wrt Surplus Capacity & Underlying Decline Observed, flow could be 97.9-mbd potentially albeit highly improbable.  Outlooks with deemed unachievable 2014 targets:  Brandt-Farrell 2008 (105.2mbd by 2014), IHS 2007 (104), Lynch 1996 (100), Wood Mackenzie 2007 (99.5) & Robelius 2007 (98.5)

Hail Mary Scenarios - Practitioner has a more conservative outlook that has been featured in Tier-1:  EIA-Caruso 2005, EU WETO/POLES 2007 (reference) & Royal Dutch Shell 2008 (blueprint)

Mathematical Models - Lack robustness to depict inferior non-conventional flows:  Carlson 2007

Inadequate robustness or Conjecture-based:  Laherrère 2012, Lynch 2012, Leonardo Maugeri 2012, Richard Miller 2012, Charles Maxwell 2011, Royal Dutch Shell 2011, ITPOES 2010, Hirsch 2009, Odell 2009 & Lynch 1996

Trendlines Peak Oil Depletion Archive of Invalidated Outlooks ~ Dec 30 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Sept 30th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's revision:  (a) upgrades to Tier-2 status the formerly Invalidated Outlook by Jean Laherrère;  & (c) downgrades to Invalidated status (from Tier-2) the Rembrandt Koppelaar 2009 Outlook.

On a sadder note, another McPeakster effort has bit the dust.  The stale-dated Rembrandt Koppelaar 2009 Outlook has predicted an 89-Mbd Peak in 2014, but another stalwart year by the oil sector saw that milepost achieved this year already.  The scenario has been downgraded to Invalidated status (from Tier-2).

Invalidated Outlooks in general forecast low Peak Rates and/or harsh post-peak Decline Rates.  Typically they are constructed on URR/EUR platforms less than the geology-based Worst Case Scenario

Current Production exceeds Outlook Peak Rate:  HK Hubbert 1956 (34-Mbd), Matt Simmons (84.4), Samsam Bakhtiari (81), EWG-LBST (85), Kjell Aleklett (85) , Jeff Rubin (85), Colin Campbell (66 & 86), Robert Hirsch (85), Jean Laherrère (87) & Sadad al Husseini (87), Rembrandt Koppelaar (89).

Outlook's Peak Date surpassed:  HK Hubbert 1956, HK Hubbert 1974, Colin Campbell 1989, Duncan-Youngquist 1999, Samsam Bakhtiari 2003, Matt Simmons 2007, EWG-LBST 2008, Kjell Aleklett 2009, Jeff Rubin 2009, Colin Campbell 1989 & 2011

Historic Tracking of (ASPO-IE) Colin Campbell Depletion Model:  1989-2011

March 28 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 27th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's update adds Colin Campbell's May/2011 Outlook.  It re-confirms his position All Liquids peaked @ 85-mbd in 2008 (despite EIA data to the contrary) and is founded on a 2,52334-Gb URR (up 89-Gb from last year).  The chart tracks all the production profile revisions over his career.  Its forecasts of Peak Year have ranged from 1989 to 2012.  In fact, December marks the 22nd anniversary of Campbell's initial All Liquids declaration that oil had indeed peaked.  To be accurate ... a sub-peak.  In Dec/1989, he declared All Liquids production had reached its physical limits @ 66-mbd and would never again attain the 67-Mbd Peak back in 1979.

Campbell's estimates for Peak Rate span from that virgin call of a 66 Mbd sub-peak in 1989 to his 2008 forecast of a 97 Mbd peak in 2010.  His underlying All Liquids URR estimates range from 1575-Gb (1989) to 2900-Gb (2002).  TRENDLiners may have notice my last three annual chart revisions have excluded Campbell's 1991, 1996, 1997 & 1998 projections.  I determined those studies forecast Regular Conventional Oil ... not All Liquids, and only led to unnecessary confusion.  His current (2011) forecast for RCO can be compared to the only three other such projections for light sweet crude at my Scenarios venue.

The highlighted years of distinction are: 2008 (highest peak 97-Mbd), 2002 (2900-Gb URR high), 2011 (current update), 2004 (Colin Campbell's dark days call:  80-Mbd peak coming in 2006) & 1989 (Campbell's initial 66-Mbd scenario which declared that All Liquids would never breach its 1979 record).  Because the Depletion Model newsletter graphic ends in 2050, it was not readily apparent that five of Campbell's early All Liquids projections failed to exhaust his designated URR.  The 300-yr outlook resolution view of this chart exposes the errant methodology of the Depletion Model in 1999, Y2k, 2002, 2003 & 2004.  These profiles have been corrected via compensating plateaus or "doglegs".

See how the 2010 ASPO Depletion Model measures up against other failed outlooks in our Invalidated Scenarios presentation & compared agin Tier-1 URR estimates.

click here to see how the latest (2011) Campbell Depletion Model measures up against the only other three studies addressing Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude)

click chart for full discussion & more at the Peak Oil History venue...

Each month, Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario-2500 compiles the long-term production profiles of the 7 main component flows that comprise All Liquids, along with a tracking of UDRO (underlying decline rate observed)

click chart for the January 2013 Update charts, table & guidance ...

Regular Conventional Oil Scenarios

March 24 2013 delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 24th MemberVenue guidance ~ Over the years, there have been only 4 modellers worldwide who have published long term production profiles for Regular Conventional Oil ... the light sweet crude:  Albert Bartlett (USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA) & TRENDLines' own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada).

Hubbert's initial RCO thoughtful graphic bell-curve presentation commenced the general discourse on Peak Oil in 1956.  It's Y2k Peak Date (35-Mbd) was intuitive but the model was flawed by its lowly 1,250-Gb estimate of URR.  His 1974 update boosted the resource base to 2,000-Gb, a figure that is still relevant by modern standards, but his second projection and its 1995 111-Mbd peak were truncated by OPEC intervention the following year.

Also sporting a 2-Tb URR was the 1998 Bartlett model with its forecast of a 73-Mbd peak in 2004.

In actual fact, RCO extraction peaked in May 2005 @ 69-mbd and it appears the midpoint of its (2,005-Gb) URR/EUR was crossed several months thereafter (Oct/2006).  RCO production declined at an annual rate of 2.2% from 2006-2009 to 63-Mbd, but has since been in plateau.  2012 extraction was a 64-Mbd pace.

Jean Laherrère & Colin Campbell have been the sector's most stalwart peak oil study practitioners.  Both have openly shared their annual analysis with fellow modellers for over two decades.  In May 2011, I coaxed Campbell to come out of retirement for a second time for another update.  Campbell's 2011 Depletion Model continues to extend RCO's dramatic 2.2%/yr post-peak decline rate thru to 2030.  It also increased RCO's URR by 84-Gb to 2,047-Gb ... a career high estimate for Colin.

Conversely, the Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 (the sole active model) has trimmed last year's URR estimate by another 33-Gb to 2,005-Gb.  While Campbell forecasts the annual flow rate will deteriorate to 38-Mbd by 2030, Hutter takes the position 52-Mbd is more probable.  On the longer term, whereas Campbell predicts the annual Decline Rate softens after 2050, Hutter sees major resource constraint after 2066.

As a 72% component of All Liquids, the short-term demise of Regular Conventional Oil will determine whether Peak Oil is imminent or has another 18 years to play out.  The PS-2500 model determined in 2008 the steep RCO decline (2.2% 2006-2009) was not the result of rapid depletion but rather a mirage masked by shifts in global Surplus Capacity.  As such, Hutter has been stalwart in his position RCO extraction had entered a 62-Mbd plateau which will hold 'til 2023, thereby forming a solid foundation for non-conventionals to take All Liquids to ever increasing heights.  With light sweet crude rising to 64-Mbd in 2012, the universe appears to be unfolding as it should...

Using the proper historic narrow definition of Regular Conventional Oil, these production profiles exclude NGL, processing gains & the non-conventionals (Bitumen, X-heavy, Arctic, Deep Sea, Biofuels, GTL, CTL & Kerogen).  Hence, we have excluded the wider "conventional" projections by Guseo, Korpela, Kuwait University, Laherrère  & Walsh.  RCO comprises only 72% of All Liquids production today, and it is clear NGL & the non-conventionals play an ever increasing role.  The PS-2500 model projects RCO will fall to less than 50% of All Liquids in 2031 ... a significant threshold for posterity.

Footnotes:    

Tier-1 Scenarios Chart:

BP 2011 - One of our "original six" and an annual provider of one of the best estimates of national reserves proved reserves for light sweet crude

Deutsche Bank - Authors Paul Sankey, David Clark & Silvio Micheloto are presently committed to a Peak Demand scenario.

EIA 2013 AEO  (reference case) - EIA's 1995 version sports the Third best overall record on Trendlines long-term prediction Scoreboard.  At 9-Tb, this version boasts the highest URR of all models.

ExxonMobil 2012 - annual updates since 2005;  currently the most optimistic outlook.

Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario-2500 - only model that updates monthly;  Energy Analyst for TrendLines Research

IEA  (2011-WEO New Policies Scenario - very comprehensive study

Statoil 2012 - new addition with impressive robustness

OPEC 2011  (reference scenario) - very comprehensive study

PFC 2009 (ver 10.0309) - n/a

Chris Skrebowski  (ver 11.1104) - Renowned for development of the bottom-up Megaprojects flow analysis, but its inherent worst-case methodology is subject to frequent upward revisions as new facilities are announced...

Michael Smith 2010  (ver 10.0830) - Reinstated in Tier-1 after dampening overly optimistic medium term projection

Total  (ver 11.0526) - n/a

Turner, Mason & Company Consulting Engineers  (ver 11.0331) - the newest member of the Tier-1 family

Peter Wells  (ver 11.0411) - Has probably the best database of world's oil fields (IHS + proprietary)

Tier-2 Scenarios Chart

Pierre-René Bauquis  (ver 8.0122) - staledated

Brandt-Farrell 2009 - Failed 2014 milepost test suggesting 105-mbd by that date (84 - 96 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.

William Carlson 2007 (logistic analysis) - Excellent effort, but the Tier-1 Chart is limited to a single mathematical curve model contribution (Laherrère preferred at this time).

CERA  (ver 9.1106) - Has probably the second best database (IHS) of world's oil fields.  Until Dec/2012 had consistently been the most optimistic Peak Rate forecast since 2004.

EIA/Caruso 2005 - Included in Top 4 most accurate 10-yr forecasts.  Downgraded to Tier-2 only 'cuz it is stale-dated.  Also, this is the Hail Mary version of EIA's multiple efforts.  Reference Scenario Sweetnam hybrid preferred.

EIA/Sweetnam 2009 - staledated due to 2008 base;  its 2090 peak is latest of all models

EU 2007 WETO-POLES  (reference case) - This is the Hail Mary version of WETO's 2 scenarios. & EU WETO-POLES 2007  (carbon constraint case) - n/a

IHS 2007  (ver 7.0109) - Failed 2013 milepost test suggesting 103-mbd by that date (83 - 92 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.

ITPOES 2010 - UK's Industry Taskforce Peak Oil Energy Security second report abandoned its own science to produce a shameful agenda-driven political document. 

Kuwait Energy 2007  (ray leonard ver 7.0917) - Failed 2013 milepost test suggesting 97.5-mbd by that date (83 - 92 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.  Intentional "dogleg" represents non-conventionals.

Jean Laherrère  (linearization ver 12.0801) - TRENDLines Most Accurate Vintage Forecaster in 2008, 2009 & 2010.  Based on his two decade studies of Linearization modeling, Jean's Model is the sole mathematics curve-based Outlook in our Tier-1 presentation, and was one of our original six back in 2004.  lacks robustness of peers.

Charles Maxwell  (ver 11.1104) - newest member of the Tier-2 family;  lacks robustness of peers.

Michael Lynch 1996 - 7.3-Tb URR is largest of Tier-2.  4th best on the Vintage Forecast Scoreboard ... downgraded to Tier-2 only 'cuz it is stale-dated.

Michael Lynch 2012 - 8.0-Tb URR is largest of Tier-2.  4th best practitioner on the Vintage Forecast Scoreboard ... lacks robustness of peers.

Leonardo Maugeri 2012 - lacks robustness of peers

Richard Miller 2012  (in practice scenario) - lacks robustness of peers

Peter Odell 2009 - Fails some reconciliation tests.  Appears to be a conjecture-based update of better previous dated models.

Fredric Robelius 2007 - Failed 2013 milepost test suggesting 98.5-mbd Peak prior to that date (83 - 92 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.  An overly aggressive Decline Rate of 1.8% causes major production profile "dogleg" after 2050.

Royal Dutch Shell 2011  (scramble scenario) - lacks robustness of peers

Nansen Saleri  (ver 8.0304) -  lacks robustness of peers, perhaps conjecture-based

Wood MacKenzie 2007 - Failed 2013 milepost test suggesting 99-mbd by that date (83 - 92 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.

Invalidated Scenarios Archive Chart:

Kjell Aleklett 2009 (ver 9.1109) - Erred by declaring 2008 was Peak Year

Samsam Bakhtiari 2003 WOCAP - Erred by a 2006 Peak of 81-mbd.  Also, overly aggressive Decline Rate of 2.7% causes major production profile "dogleg" after 2020.  The most error-riddled effort, Bakhtiari mistakenly built the model on ASPO's 1800-Gb Regular Conventional URR platform instead of Campbell's 2900-Gb All Liquids URR.  Also integrity issue:  upon failure, claimed it was not an All Liquids model.

Colin Campbell 1989 - Erred by declaring a 1989 Peak of 66-mbd.  Listed for historical significance purposes only.  To be fair, this original All Liquids projection was updated annually from 1999 onwards.

Colin Campbell 2011  (ver 11.0523) - Erred by declaring 2008 as Peak Year.  2011/6/19:  TRENDLines has been fortunate & honoured to draw Colin Campbell from retirement once again. Like me, he's just a magnet to those Excel sheets, eh! Last month we updated Colin's Regular Convention Oil targets. Today there's some fine tuning to the decline profile of his All Liquids Depletion Model. Campbell has issues with the BTU values within international data reporting and as such remains committed to the 86-mbd of 2008 as being Peak Year. Hmmm...

Club of Rome's 1972 "Limits to Growth" - Representing All Liquids, it has been misrepresented as forecasting "running out of oil".  Presented two years before Hubbert conventional oil release.

In 1972, the Club of Rome commissioned the MIT Globe3 model to design its long term outlook "Limits to Growth".  The petroleum projections within its global energy analysis seem to have inspired MK Hubbert's 1974 major revision.  Built on a 2.15-Tb URR, LTG forecast a 117-mbd All Liquids Peak in 1995.  Quick on its tail, Hubbert's paper focused on Regular Conventional Crude only and projected a 111-mbd Peak, also in 1995, but employing a 2-Tb URR void of NGL & non-conventionals.  Hubbert's previous paper had predicted a 34-mbd Peak.

Media references to LTG often mistakenly quote its pessimist view of "running out oil" before the end of the century.  By depicting its findings in Invalidated Archive, it is seen that its forecast for exhaustion was not 'til 2075 and clearly this reference is out of context.  It is but one more example that the alarmist rhetoric by zealots within the McPeakster, McDoomer & Global Warming fraternities have much to do with the marginalization of those movements by the Mainstream Media and policy makers over the last two decades...

Duncan-Youngquist 1999 - Best overall record on TrendLines Vintage prediction Scoreboard.  Eventually erred with a 2007 Peak of 87-mbd.

EWG/LBST  2008 - Erred by a 2006 Peak of 85 Mbd.  2011/6/19:  Energy Watch Group rejects new EIA data and remains committed to the 85-mbd of 2006 being Peak Year.

Robert Hirsch  (ver 11.1104) - Conjecture based;  His effort is mainly for pundit entertainment purposes.  2011/8/25:  The early 2009 musings by Robert Hirsch proposed All Liquids production had indeed peaked, would never see 87.0 Mbd and at best would maintain a plateau 'til 2011.  An early proponent of the 8% UDRO (Underlying Decline Rate Observed) camp, he forecast a 4% post-peak annual decline rate.  The 2011 surge by Saudi Arabia forces a downgrade of the Hirsch outlook from Tier-2 status and adds yet another failed McPeakster projection to the Invalidated presentation.

M K Hubbert 1956 - Erred by a Y2k Peak of 34-mbd.  Note production profile does not incl NGL, Bitumen, X-Heavy, Polar Arctic, Deep Sea, CTL, GTL, Kerogen or BTL.

M K Hubbert 1974 - Erred by a 1995 Peak of 111-mbd.  Note production profile does not incl NGL, Bitumen, X-Heavy, Polar Arctic, Deep Sea, CTL, GTL, Kerogen or BTL.

Sadad al Husseini 2007 (rev 10.1109) - its 87-Mbd Peak Rate forecast exceeded by actual production

Rembrandt Koppelaar 2009  (rapid conventional depletion/ accelerated nonconventional growth or rd/ag scenario) - Downgraded 'cuz latest version shifts profile to below Worst Case Scenario zone.

Jeff Rubin 2009 - Erred by declaring 2008 was Peak Year;  Production profile fails robustness test by not addressing post 2015 exhaustion.  His effort is mainly for pundit entertainment purposes.

Matt Simmons 2008  (ver 8.0416) - Erred by declaring a 2007 Peak of 84.4-mbd.  Also, an overly aggressive Decline Rate of 7.0% infers a 1575-Gb URR that is 449-Gb less than the most conservative recognized geologist estimate (2024-Gb by EWG/LBST).  His effort is mainly for pundit entertainment purposes.

Tracking of Colin Campbell - ASPO/IE Depletion Model since 1989:

The highlighted years of distinction are: 2008 (highest peak 97-Mbd), 2002 (2,900-Gb URR high), 2011 (current update), 2004 (Colin Campbell's dark days call: 80mbd peak coming in 2006) & 1989 (Campbell's initial 66-mbd scenario).

Since 2004, TrendLines Research has conducted due diligence on the Depletion Model for inclusion in our Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios.  This includes reconciling the model's production profile with its URR.  Because Campbell's Depletion Model newsletter graphic ends in 2050, it was unapparent to viewers that many of the model's early All Liquids projections failed to sufficiently exhaust URR. 

The above post-2050 resolution chart exposes the methodology errors of the Depletion Model in its early days.  In short, Campbell's low and/or early Peaks and/or harsh post-Peak Decline Rates were too aggressive to consume all his attributed URR, leaving production profile "doglegs" in 1999, Y2k, 2001, 2002, 2003 & 2004.  In the dark days of 2004, it seems that Campbell was unduly influenced by zealot members of the McPeakster fraternity:  he corrected his doglegs by slashing All Liquids URR from 2900-Gb to 2400 albeit the URR Estimates 17-model Avg was 2942-Gb at the time.  All Liquids Peak was advanced from 2012 to 2006 & Peak Rate was reduced to 80-mbd from 87-mbd.  Motivations at the time were questionable ... and i did!!

My intervention and vigilant scrutiny led to better quality projections by Campbell in late 2005, 2006, 2007.  Unfortunately, the Campbell 2008 Newsletters saw his stated 2007 production trimmed from 87-mbd in January to a pathetic 81-mbd by December.  As stated in the Tier-2 footnotes, upon reconciling Campbell's data, we found that he justified the low number by reducing NGL flow rates for 2007 & 2008 to a mere 5-mbd from his previous 8-mbd tally.  When the elusive 3-mbd NGL error is added back, his figures are in complete agreement with the 84.4-mbd at EIA.  Previously an eager and forthright responder, it is with dismay that we report that to date, Colin Campbell has refused to address this recent discrepancy brought to his attention via our emails.  (addendum:  In his Nov 9 2009 model update, Kjell Aleklett has conceded that he erred in advising Campbell that an NGL downgrade was in order as he finds EIA has already made the BTU adjustment)

Excluded Practitioners:

These 5 contributors to the Peak Oil debate have done excellent studies that unfortunately are limited to more narrowly defined flows than All Liquids:

   Regular Conventional Crude - Albert Bartlett (USA) ... actually, see his projection in our new RCC Scenarios chart!

   RCC + NGL - Ken Deffeyes (USA), Seppo Korpela (USA), Renato Guseo (Italy), Kuwait University (Nashawi et al) & John Walsh (Canada)

Tier-1 Scenarios Chart Archive w/o text:  "charts only" from 2004 to 2013 available at MemberVenue

     Tier-1 Scenarios Chart Archive "with text" from 2004 to 2013 available at MemberVenue

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