I'm pleased to tell TRENDLiners this past Autumn 86% of
visitors were International (a new record 125 nations: most from USA,
France, Germany, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Italy &
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Trendlines Research monitors the major forecasts of peak oil depletion from
around the globe. Updates of the 14 tier-1 scenarios (and consensus avg) are plotted on a
graph and each month the Tier-1 presentation is posted to this website.
The 21 others are plotted on a Tier-2 chart. For purists, a third
chart plots the only 4 forecasts using the narrow definition of Regular
Conventional Oil (light sweet crude ... which peaked in 2005). For
posterity purposes, a final chart tracks the noteworthy historic but failed
predictions since 1956.
consensus avg of the world's 14 most accurate recognized Peak Oil Depletion
Scenarios, based on data by
Deutsche Bank (USA Division - Sankey, Clark & Micheloto), ExxonMobil
(the Yukon/Canada), IEA
OPEC (Vienna), PFC Energy (USA), Chris Skrebowski (UK),
Michael Smith (UK), Statoil (Norway), Total (France), Turner-Mason
Peter Wells (UK):
on 45-model Tier-1 avg:
98 Mbd in 2028
Post-peak Decline Rate 'til 2050: 0.9%/yr avg
The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted: 2043
The year flow retreats below today's 89-Mbd: 2044
The year flow drops to ½ of today's 89-Mbd: 2086
The year we virtually run out of oil:
2296 (less than 8-Mbd &
4,305 Gb (1,319-Gb consumed to 2012/12/31 excl 6-Gb BTL)
Proved Reserves to be consumed from 2013 'til 2029 Peak:
Today's Global Depletion:
31% of URR (Net Depletion Rate: 1.1%/yr)
Tier-1 Scenarios Chart
Archive w/o text: "charts only" from 2004 to 2013 available at
Tier-1 Scenarios Chart Archive "with text" from 2004 to 2013
Backgrounder ~ In 1972, the
Club of Rome attempted to shock stakeholders, politicians and policy makers with
its Limits to Growth study forecast of
All Liquids Peak Oil: 117-Mbd in 1995. They attempted to promote
awareness natural resources are finite, but in jeopardy with growing global
population. This was underscored in 1974 with M K Hubbert's similar
prediction: 111-Mbd in 1995 (excluding NGL, deep sea, polar, Orinoco & tar
Because OPEC manipulation
truncated both these predictions, Colin Campbell attempted to update the
long-term prospects for All Liquids. The Irish geologist stunned
many when in 1989 he declared present
All Liquids flow (65.5-Mbd) would never again re-attain its 1979
pre-crisis Peak of 67-Mbd
all 3 charted).
Well, he was very wrong (88-Mbd today). This episode made it quite clear
the uncertainty & price volatility caused by such pessimistic reports (even by
well-intentioned professionals) required formal addressing by the energy sector.
In that regard, we saw OECD's
IEA, USA's EIA,
OPEC and major IOCs step forward with their own annual & bi-annual
long-range projections in an attempt to set the record straight and stabilize
The effort did not last long.
After Y2k, the ranks of McPeaksters (promoters of "imminent" Peak Oil) swelled
with a growing element from the lunatic fringe. Campbell's
well-meaning alert was hijacked and discourse deteriorated to the realm of
economic and social collapse whilst the world runs out of oil. As
the rhetoric escalated, I thought it would be constructive to provide a platform
for objective opposing views of the future.
Trendlines Research has been
analysing the world's very best All Liquids depletion profiles (and the
not-so-good ones) since 2003. My database includes six decades of forecast
studies. A year later I commenced to share the charted results at this
website. Back in 2005, the 7-model avg indicated a 94-Mbd PEAK in
2020. My not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where
collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic
camps. After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, I am humbled with
this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible
2.5-Mbd/yr: reduced from 41-Mbd (Campbell
CERA 126) in 2005 to today's 19-Mbd (Skrebowski 94 &
ExxonMobil 113) spread.
The initial "original
six" Depletion Scenarios chart appeared in 2004.
later the presentation had expanded to 13 Outlooks and included an annotation
displaying its consensus projection for Peak Date & Peak Rate and a production
profile. After swelling to two dozen models in 2008, it was decided to
protect the integrity of the consensus data it provides for international
petroleum studies by adding only Tier-1 Scenarios in the future whilst inferior
and stale-dated Outlooks would be purged. This unique depiction has become
the hallmark indicator for future oil depletion with worldwide use among global
educational institutions, Gov't agencies, stakeholders and policymakers in
over 121 nations.
2013 delayed FreeVenue public release of
Jan 29th MemberVenue guidance ~
Today's release updates Tier-1 Outlooks by BP & my own
and downgrades CERA's outlook to Tier-2 status.
Global production has increased
dramatically from the Recession low of 83.1 Mbd (Jan/2009), setting yet another
monthly record (89.3-Mbd) in Oct/2012 and a new quarterly record of 89.1-Mbd
(2012Q4). The 2012 year-to-date extraction is on pace to shatter last
year's annual record (87.1) with a new mark of 89.0-Mbd and monthly production
is poised to break 90 come September, while consensus infers it will crack the 95-Mbd
threshold in 2018.
At $92/barrel in November, USA
Refiner Acquisition Crude (RAC) is far below the PEAK DEMAND Barrier ($109) as
defined and calculated by the TRENDLines
price model. This enabled
the sector to set a new
monthly Consumption record in November (90.4-Mbd) after many months of status quo
while the PDB was in breach. International Inventories are presently
just under their 5-yr avg and 5% of global capacity is
presently idle, eagerly awaiting new Demand from non-OECD nations. OECD
consumption peaked in 2005.
World Production Records
venue for higher resolution charts of current extraction both at the global
level and by the Top 7 nations. Saudi Arabia is back on top and Canada has
overtaken Iran. Historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components &
future target prices (thru 2040 & 2017) can be perused via
Today's Model Reviews
In releasing its third annual
long-term outlook this month, BP raises the 2030 peak rate to 104 (from
102) and in so doing becomes the fifth most optimistic projection.
A favourite contribution to this
14-model Depletion study is of course my own
The only oil depletion model updated monthly, its current revision
reflects two factors: (a) the projected annual New Capacity build rate to
Year 2100 reduced to 4.9-Mbd (from 5.2) & (b) All Liquids URR/EUR
4-Gb to 6,911-Gb. Its target for 2050 annual Underlying Decline Rate
Observed (UDRO) remains 5.5%.
Its GEOLOGIC PEAK scenario currently projects resource constraints will lead to
a 101-Mbd production peak (106-Mbd capacity) in 2030. The model
calculates 612-Gb of today's proved reserves (1,360-Gb) will be required by 2030 to
this unfolding. Contrary to the many pessimistic visions, it predicts post-peak
decline to mid-century will be a manageable 0.8-Mbd/yr.
Meanwhile, its PEAK DEMAND scenario proposes the waning of the Consumption growth rate
which began in 2004 will eventually arrest demand levels when USA RAC price permanently
surpasses the PEAK DEMAND Barrier. Because the
presently projects this event will not occur 'til five years after GEOLOGIC
it appears PEAK DEMAND (2035 @ $257/barrel) will not be the determinant for Peak Oil unless crude
prices rise faster than projected.
PS-2500 gauges the pace of
Underlying Decline Rate Observed to be 3.5% of All Liquids in
is destined to rise to
5.5% by mid-Century. Its cyclicality since 1970 (8.5-yrs) and projected
deterioration to 2050 can be viewed
chart. The model estimates 77 Mbd of the 120 Mbd of All Liquids
Capacity added since 1970 addressed Underlying Decline Observed. A
further 90-Mbd is required to attain the 106-Mbd capacity target for 2030 within
PEAK scenario: 15 to increase present capacity and 75-Mbd
addresses future UDO.
PS-2500 optimism for All Liquids continues to be founded on
the controversial premise Regular Conventional Oil commenced a 15-year 62-Mbd plateau
in 2009, whereas McPeakster gloom has relied on Colin Campbell's
failed prediction (RCO
chart below) light sweet crude's 2.2%/yr terminal decline rate which commenced
in 2006 would carry on thru to 2030.
Nov/2009, PS-2500 has incorporated the predictive economic forecasts
of the underlying
component models. The
currently suggests the price thresholds for its gasoline/GDP ratios are
$4.52/gal for its Price Spike Ceiling; $3.47 for its USA Light Vehicle Sales Barrier;
and that pump price is en route to $2.89/gal by 2015Q1 before resuming its
secular uptrend. Employing four similar definitive
Oil/GDP ratios, the
suggests its Price Spike
Ceiling is currently $154/barrel; the Induced G-20 Recessions Threshold is
$127; the USA Light Vehicle Sales Barrier is $109; & its Peak Demand
Barrier is $109.
module has tracked oil & gasoline's price components (fundamental &
non-fundamental) since 2004. Its analysis determines January's $92 USA
RACrude was comprised of seven price components: Extraction
($43/barrel), Lack of Surplus Capacity ($15), USDollar Debasement ($17),
Inventory Draw ($1), Stress Premium ($7), Speculation/Hedging Activity ($6) &
Excess Margin ($3). Its unique analysis has determined USA RAC
finally found price equilibrium in July 2012 and will resume its secular uptrend
in Spring 2015 after dipping to $80 ($75 WTI). Crude currently trades 3% ($3) below its $95/barrel
Fundamentals Fair Value.
venue for lots more details and charts on non-conventional dynamics, Underlying
Decline Rate Observed & the inherent flaws (and myths) associated with the
The CERA outlooks by
Peter Jackson were introduced to our presentation in late 2005 and have
consistently been the most optimistic of the Tier-1 scenarios.
Unfortunately the analysis methodology requires updates at least every three
years and as such the 2009 version has been downgraded today to Tier-2 status.
Earnestly looking forward to an update...
more tier-1 & tier-2 scenarios
updates next month...
Further to the 14 Tier-1 models, 21 lesser
quality outlooks are regularly charted as Tier-2
scenarios. For discussion and posterity purposes, 4
Regular Conventional Oil
are charted as well. But, it is the consensus avg of the 14 Tier-1
models which offers up the very best professional guidance, such as the following findings:
Peak Year & Peak Rate (requires 542-Gb proved
extraction passes 2
50% Extraction of URR
first year flow is
less than today's 89-Mbd
today's 1265-Gb of
proved reserves exhausted
extraction passes 3
flow is only ½ of today's
100 yrs down the
flows limited to
X-Heavy, GTL, CTL & BTL
mostly to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL
Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)
The consensus avg URR/EUR
for the 14 Tier-1
practitioners is 4,305-Gb when one deducts from the nominal avg the volume
attributable to renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) as calculated by the
Hutter Peak Scenario-2500
model. It estimates a cumulative 577-Gb BTL will have been produced thru
to Year 2325. This net economic reserves tally compares remarkably well to
the 4,174-Gb consensus avg derived by the 22 estimates within our similar
with its slightly different mix of practitioners, some of whom only track
TRENDLines calculates Global
(to 2012/12/31) to be
1,325-Gb for All Liquids of which 1,148-Gb is attributable to Regular
Conventional Oil (light sweet crude) & 6-Gb to BTL.
Exhaustion of the
first trillion barrels of
All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002. Via the 14-model consensus
avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the
third by Year 2070 (excl BTL). Annual flow will finally dip
below the 8-Mbd threshold in Year 2296 ... signifying the virtual exhaustion
of fossil fuels. From that juncture, only BTL sourced
renewable liquids along with the last vestiges of CTL & GTL provide
Of the Tier-1 model
contributors, the lowest URR tally is the 2,560 Gb inferred
PFC Energy Outlook. Highest is EIA's 9.0 Tb
Date & Peak Rate
The 2028 98-Mbd PEAK
indicated by the 14-model consensus avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined
as within 2-Mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2020 to 2034. As such, even minor
Peak Rate variances of the average can result in significant shifts of the PEAK
DATE. Back in 2005, my first exercise in averaging (seven
models) indicated a 94-Mbd PEAK in 2020. The multi-model consensus avg for PEAK
DATE in the Depletion Scenarios' updates since 2005 has ranged from 2013 to
2030; and we have reported PEAK RATE spanning from 91 to 99-Mbd.
All charts from 2004 to today can be viewed on a single page at the exclusive
Today's Tier-1 models' Peak
Date ranges from
2015 by Chris Skrebowski to Year 2036 by
... a span of 21 years.
Today's update contains a Peak
Rate range from 94-Mbd by Chris Skrebowski to ExxonMobil's 113-Mbd
... a difference of 19-Mbd.
I am truly humbled with this
project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible
3.1-Mbd/yr. Today's high-to-low spread of 19-Mbd has been diminished from
41 (Campbell 85 &
CERA 126) just seven years ago. While the pessimists have only upped
their forecasts by 1.1-Mbd/yr in that time frame, the optimists have in
turn been dropping by 1.9-Mbd/yr. Trivia alert: if this unholy
methodology continues, by 2018 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a
peak rate of "101"...
well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.
The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its
original volume is its status of Depletion. Using the
15-model consensus avg, and excluding 6-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,319-Gb of
consumed petroleum divided by the 4,305-Gb consensus avg URR reveals
global Depletion of
31% (to 2012/12/31). Using these metrics, the passing of one-third of URR is near
Gross Depletion Rate (33-Gb annually extracted liquids as a
percentage of global URR) is 0.8%/yr today. If measured
as a percentage of remaining resource (2,986-Gb), the Net
Depletion Rate is a higher
consensus 2028 PEAK occurs at 43% Depletion. The 50% crossover
of the inferred URR avg will occur in 2043. These
results would appear to confirm my long-time position that the classic
Hubbert bell curve, itself well designed to forecast maximum production
for Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude), may not be applicable
as an indicator for projecting the cumulative peak of All Liquids and its seven
streams, each with their own unique production profile (see
Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)
The IEA WEO-2008
calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in
post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in
non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of
9%. A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results
and diminish the loss factor. After EOR activity, IEA
calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.
call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion
Underlying Decline Observed (UDO). It is
expressed in millions of barrels/day per annum. More
commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in
percentage terms per time interval - appropriately the Underlying
Decline Rate Observed (UDRO). To maintain a
production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally
increased each year to match UDO loss. And barring
Demand nuances, when the
New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal
Production Decline will commence.
has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting
status. Its (charted) long-term analysis found that over the
last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually. This means
that of the 120-Mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 77 served to
address UDO & only 43-Mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 48 in 1969
to 91-Mbd by year-end 2009. The UDRO rises & falls with surges
coinciding with the American economic Recessions. Below, the
finding is compared to short/medium term practitioner estimates of
annual present/future All LiquidsUDRO:
1.7% - Leonardo Maugeri (2012-2020 avg)
1.9% - Adam Brandt (2007 - sole peer-reviewed contribution)
2.1% - CERA (2009-2030 avg)
IEA (2011-2035 avg)
3.5% - Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 (2012,
cyclical & rising to 5.5% by
4.1% - Matt Simmons (2009-2030 avg)
4.2% - Jeff Rubin (2009)
EIA (2009-2030 avg)
4.5% - OPEC (2008)
4.7% - Chris Skrebowski (2010)
5.0% - Total (2009)
Deutsche Bank (5% in 2009, rising to 8% by 2030 ... 6.7% avg)
5.2% - Schlumberger (2009-2030 avg)
5.25% - Sadad al Husseini (2009)
6.0% - PFC (by 2030)
7.0% - UK Energy Research Centre (2009)
9.0% - consensus at theOilDrum & PeakOildotcom (2009)
The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak
well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline;
often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate.
The TRENDLines 14-model consensus avg declines at
0.9% per annum measured from the 2030 PEAK to Year 2050.
This is quite manageable for policy makers, politicians and
stakeholders when compared to the most aggressive rate
mathematically possible (2.1%) as illustrated in the
Worst Case Scenario.
Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 7-Mbd exhaustion
threshold in Year 2325, the consensus decline rate will average
0.9% annually while the
grows to 4.0%.
Among our Tier-1
practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from
by Chris Skrebowski to Year 2036 by IEA.
The avg post-peak Decline Rates to
2050 within the models ranges from EIA's
0.3%/yr to 2.7%/yr for Statoil.
This hypothetical projection was introduced in Feb/2008 to put in
perspective the misinformation campaigns perpetuated by "running out of oil",
"the well is running dry", "production is about to
fall off a cliff" & "a growing gap" presentations by McDoomer &
elements within the
fraternity and ASPO itself!
Using the lowest recognized estimate of All Liquids URR/EUR (2,427-Gb by
World Oil 2010) and assuming flow collapses after 2012 (89-Mbd), this
projection depicts the average Decline Rate (4.0%/yr)
required mathematically to fully exhaust this very conservative Resource
figure. Measured only to Year 2050, the decline rate is a more moderate
2.1%/yr. Measured to the 10-Mbd milepost, it's 3.5%/yr.
Significantly, this exercise reveals that half (44.5) of this year's 89-Mbd
All Liquids production rate will still be flowing in Year 2046. After 2077, All Liquids
flow (5-Mbd) is limited to sourcing via BTL (biofuels-to-liquid). A post-peak
production decline rate higher than 4.0% "strands URR" ... and that phrase is an
oxymoron. Ignore all pundits that suggest a decline rate for post-peak
production of over 4.0% in their musings. And especially, please read
TEOTWAWKI forecasts with these hard numbers in mind...
TrendLines Vintage Predictions Scoreboard
2010 Forecast (pending
3-yr Error Score
forecasting of an All Liquids PEAK commenced in
1989. Our archive of pre-2001 projections reveals
1997 Outlook (France)
as current title holder for best overall vintage
predictions, by merits of its least cumulative errors
over a three year span.
Second place goes to
& third place to
EIA's 1995 Int'l Energy Outlook (USA).
I must also add 3 honourable
mentions to the
for its best forecast for all three of the monitored
years ... all of 'em being accurate to within 1-Mbd!
a) If an Outlook does not fully
address post-peak production Decline, a progressive decline rate (to ultimate
R/P = 10) is arbitrarily applied to exhaust its designated URR.
b) Outlooks exhibiting extreme
not reflective of conventional/non-conventional transitions, but rather created
by our reconciliation with URR risk are downgraded to Tier-2
c) To improve the integrity,
accuracy and due diligence of both the Scenarios illustrated and more
importantly their cumulative Average, Outlooks with unreasonably optimistic
medium term flow rates have been routinely disqualified since Feb/2008. In
the spirit of transparency, Trendlines Research has been publishing the
qualifying threshold: via current MegaProject analysis, we calculate the
2014 potential flow rate to be 97.6-mbd (incl Surplus Capacity and UDO
discrepancy), albeit the probable rate is 90.8-mbd (PS-2500) or 95.3-mbd
via IEA 2011 MTOGM.
It is suggested inferred flow
rates breaching the 97.6-Mbd 2014 threshold to the upside are seriously
flawed. This newer rate gives 6.8-mbd latitude above the probable 90.8-mbd
target rate. It is felt this is overly generous but grants consideration
to differing opinions by modellers wrt Surplus Capacity & Underlying Decline
Observed. To date, 5 Outlooks have been downgraded to Tier-2 status due to
d) Where a practitioner provides
two or more Outlooks, we often use discretion to feature the more conservative
version & their "Hail Mary" scenario is relegated to the Tier-2
"Light Vehicle Collapse
Barrier" (Feb/2011) was coined by Freddy Hutter in the
Barrier" was coined by Freddy Hutter of TRENDLines in the Oct/2011 update of
The "Price Spike Ceiling"
threshold was coined by
Freddy Hutter of TRENDLines in the February 2012 update of
Gas Pump Discussions. From Nov/2009 it was labelled the
"Demand Destruction Barrier"
"Geopolitical Fear Premium" was coined
in March 2008 & "Media
Noise-du-jour" & "Stress Premium" were coined by Freddy
Hutter of TRENDLines in the March 2012 & July 2012 updates of
Also, please visit our 22-model
venue for a similar composite addressing of this topic. Please
if u can suggest a worthy Presentation candidate, new Outlooks, questions,
comments or permissions.
Thanx to all that participate and provide feedback...
The compilation above has at times included Outlooks which are still valid but
have become stale-dated. And some Outlooks have unconventional definitions
or suspect due diligence. I call these Tier-2 candidates.
Then there are situations where Tier-1 model practitioners' releases
included two or more scenarios. I usually choose to depict the
conservative case, leaving the other "optimistic" case in limbo.
We will call those orphans
our "Hail Mary" class. Over the years, some Outlooks have become
invalidated by rising oil production eventually exceeding their Peak Rate and/or
Peak Date targets. The first victim was M King Hubbert's 1956 forecast,
for within ten years of its release, extraction was already 10-Mbd over its
forecast pace. None-the-less, it is felt that all these efforts have merit
and were/are significant for their time and as such TrendLines
Research is pleased to provide a venue.
Where we adopted a conservative
case Outlook above, the orphaned optimistic "Hail Mary" cases are grouped with aforementioned dated studies in the
Tier 2 Presentation below. Outlooks ultimately surpassed
by Production realities are eventually shifted to the Invalidated
Archive Presentation further below.
Thus, presented below are our 2 depictions of 35 inferior Peak
Oil Depletion Projections based on the data of:
Kjell Aleklett (Sweden),
Ali Samsam Bakhtiari's WOCAP (Iran), Pierre-René Bauquis
Colin Campbell (Ireland),
Club of Rome (USA),
EIA-Guy Caruso (USA),
EIA-Glen Sweetnam (USA),
Energy Watch Group/Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik (Germany), EU
(EU), Robert Hirsch (USA), 2 by M King Hubbert
Sadad Ibrahim al Husseini (Saudi Arabia),
Rembrandt Koppelaar (Netherlands), Jean Laherrère
Ray Leonard of
Michael Lynch (USA), Leonardo Maugeri (Italy-USA),
Charles Maxwell (USA),
Richard Miller (BP-UK),
OPEC (Vienna), Fredrik Robelius (Sweden), Royal Dutch
Jeff Rubin (Canada), Nansen Saleri (USA),Matt Simmons (USA) & Wood
Trendlines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-2 Scenarios:
2013 delayed FreeVenue public release of
Jan 29th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's
revision downgrades the 2009 CERA outlook by Peter Jackson from
outlooks by Peter Jackson were introduced to our presentation
in late 2005 and have consistently been the most optimistic of the
Tier-1 scenarios. Unfortunately the analysis methodology
requires updates at least every three years and as such the 2009
version has been downgraded today to Tier-2 status. Earnestly
looking forward to an update...
Outlooks within the
Tier-2 presentation are still viable forecasts but exhibit one
or more deemed flaws:
Inadequate robustness or Conjecture-based: Laherrère
2012, Lynch 2012, Leonardo
Maugeri 2012, Richard Miller 2012, Charles Maxwell
2011, Royal Dutch Shell 2011, ITPOES 2010, Hirsch 2009, Odell 2009 &
Trendlines Peak Oil Depletion Archive of
Invalidated Outlooks ~
Dec 30 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of
Sept 30th MemberVenue guidance ~
revision: (a) upgrades to Tier-2 status the formerly Invalidated Outlook
by Jean Laherrère; & (c) downgrades to Invalidated
status (from Tier-2) the Rembrandt Koppelaar 2009 Outlook.
On a sadder note,
another McPeakster effort has bit the dust. The stale-dated
Rembrandt Koppelaar 2009 Outlook has predicted an 89-Mbd Peak in
2014, but another stalwart year by the oil sector saw that milepost
achieved this year already. The scenario has been downgraded
to Invalidated status (from Tier-2).
in general forecast low Peak Rates
and/or harsh post-peak Decline Rates. Typically they are
constructed on URR/EUR platforms less than the geology-based
Worst Case Scenario
exceeds Outlook Peak Rate: HK Hubbert 1956 (34-Mbd), Matt
Simmons (84.4), Samsam Bakhtiari (81), EWG-LBST (85), Kjell Aleklett
(85) , Jeff Rubin (85), Colin Campbell (66 & 86), Robert Hirsch (85), Jean Laherrère (87)
& Sadad al Husseini (87), Rembrandt Koppelaar (89).
Outlook's Peak Date
surpassed: HK Hubbert 1956, HK Hubbert 1974, Colin
Campbell 1989, Duncan-Youngquist 1999, Samsam Bakhtiari 2003, Matt
Simmons 2007, EWG-LBST 2008, Kjell Aleklett 2009, Jeff Rubin 2009,
Colin Campbell 1989 & 2011
Historic Tracking of (ASPO-IE) Colin Campbell Depletion Model:
March 28 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 27th
MemberVenue guidance ~
Today's update adds
Colin Campbell's May/2011 Outlook. It re-confirms his position
All Liquids peaked @ 85-mbd in 2008 (despite EIA data to the
contrary) and is founded on a 2,52334-Gb URR (up 89-Gb from last
year). The chart tracks all the production profile revisions
over his career. Its forecasts of Peak Year have ranged from
1989 to 2012. In fact, December marks the 22nd anniversary of
Campbell's initial All Liquids declaration that oil had indeed
peaked. To be accurate ... a sub-peak. In Dec/1989, he
declared All Liquids production had reached its physical
limits @ 66-mbd and would never again attain the 67-Mbd Peak back in
Campbell's estimates for Peak Rate span from that virgin call of a
66 Mbd sub-peak in 1989 to his 2008 forecast of a 97 Mbd peak in
2010. His underlying All Liquids URR estimates range
from 1575-Gb (1989) to 2900-Gb (2002). TRENDLiners may have
notice my last three annual chart revisions have excluded Campbell's
1991, 1996, 1997 & 1998 projections. I determined those
studies forecast Regular Conventional Oil ... not All Liquids,
and only led to unnecessary confusion. His current (2011)
forecast for RCO can be compared to the only three other such
projections for light sweet crude at my
The highlighted years
of distinction are: 2008 (highest peak 97-Mbd), 2002 (2900-Gb URR
high), 2011 (current update), 2004 (Colin Campbell's dark days
call: 80-Mbd peak coming in 2006) & 1989 (Campbell's initial
66-Mbd scenario which declared that All Liquids would never breach
its 1979 record). Because the Depletion Model newsletter
graphic ends in 2050, it was not readily apparent that five of
Campbell's early All Liquids projections failed to exhaust
his designated URR. The 300-yr outlook resolution view of this
chart exposes the errant methodology of the Depletion Model in 1999,
Y2k, 2002, 2003 & 2004. These profiles have been corrected via
compensating plateaus or "doglegs".
click here to see
how the latest (2011) Campbell Depletion Model measures up against
the only other three studies addressing Regular Conventional Oil
(light sweet crude)
for full discussion & more at the Peak Oil History venue...
month, Freddy Hutter's
compiles the long-term production profiles of the 7 main
component flows that comprise
All Liquids, along with a tracking of UDRO (underlying decline
click chart for the January 2013 Update charts, table &
Regular Conventional Oil Scenarios
2030: Colin Campbell (38-Mbd) vs Freddy Hutter (52-Mbd)
March 24 2013 delayed FreeVenue
public release of Dec 24th MemberVenue guidance ~ Over the years, there have
been only 4 modellers worldwide who have published long term production profiles
Regular Conventional Oil ... the light sweet crude: Albert Bartlett
(USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA) &
TRENDLines' own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada).
Hubbert's initial RCO
thoughtful graphic bell-curve presentation commenced the general
discourse on Peak Oil in 1956. It's Y2k Peak Date (35-Mbd) was
intuitive but the model was flawed by its lowly 1,250-Gb estimate of
URR. His 1974 update boosted the resource base to 2,000-Gb, a
figure that is still relevant by modern standards, but his second
projection and its 1995 111-Mbd peak were truncated by OPEC
intervention the following year.
Also sporting a 2-Tb URR was the 1998
model with its forecast of a 73-Mbd peak in 2004.
extraction peaked in May 2005 @ 69-mbd and it appears the midpoint of its
(2,005-Gb) URR/EUR was crossed several months thereafter (Oct/2006). RCO
production declined at an annual rate of 2.2% from 2006-2009 to
63-Mbd, but has since been in plateau. 2012 extraction was
a 64-Mbd pace.
Jean Laherrère & Colin Campbell have been the sector's
most stalwart peak oil study practitioners. Both have openly
shared their annual analysis with fellow modellers for over two decades.
In May 2011, I coaxed Campbell to come out of retirement for a
second time for another
Campbell's 2011 Depletion Model continues to extend RCO's
dramatic 2.2%/yr post-peak decline rate thru to 2030.
It also increased RCO's URR by 84-Gb to 2,047-Gb ... a career high
estimate for Colin.
Conversely, the Hutter
(the sole active model) has trimmed last year's URR estimate by
to 2,005-Gb. While Campbell forecasts the annual flow rate
will deteriorate to 38-Mbd by 2030, Hutter takes the position
52-Mbd is more probable. On the longer term, whereas
Campbell predicts the annual Decline Rate softens after 2050,
Hutter sees major resource constraint after 2066.
As a 72% component of
All Liquids, the short-term demise of Regular Conventional
Oil will determine whether Peak Oil is imminent or has another
18 years to play out.
PS-2500 model determined in 2008 the steep RCO decline (2.2% 2006-2009)
was not the result of rapid depletion but rather a mirage masked by
shifts in global Surplus Capacity. As such, Hutter has been
stalwart in his position RCO extraction had entered a 62-Mbd
plateau which will hold 'til 2023, thereby forming a solid foundation for non-conventionals to take
All Liquids to ever increasing heights. With light sweet crude
rising to 64-Mbd in 2012, the universe appears to be unfolding as it should...
Using the proper historic narrow
definition of Regular Conventional Oil, these production
profiles exclude NGL, processing gains & the non-conventionals
(Bitumen, X-heavy, Arctic, Deep Sea, Biofuels, GTL, CTL & Kerogen).
Hence, we have excluded the wider "conventional" projections
by Guseo, Korpela, Kuwait University, Laherrère & Walsh.
RCO comprises only 72% of All Liquids production today,
and it is clear NGL & the non-conventionals play an ever
increasing role. The
PS-2500 model projects RCO will fall to less than 50% of All
Liquids in 2031 ... a significant threshold for posterity.
- One of our "original
an annual provider of one of the best estimates of national reserves
proved reserves for light sweet crude
- Authors Paul Sankey, David Clark & Silvio Micheloto are presently
committed to a Peak Demand scenario.
EIA 2013 AEO (reference case) - EIA's 1995 version sports
the Third best overall record on Trendlines long-term prediction
Scoreboard. At 9-Tb, this version boasts the highest URR of all
ExxonMobil 2012 - annual updates since 2005; currently
the most optimistic outlook.
- only model that
updates monthly; Energy
Analyst for TrendLines Research
(2011-WEO New Policies Scenario - very comprehensive study
Statoil 2012 - new addition with impressive robustness
(reference scenario) - very comprehensive study
PFC 2009 (ver
10.0309) - n/a
(ver 11.1104) - Renowned for development of the bottom-up
Megaprojects flow analysis, but its inherent worst-case methodology
is subject to frequent upward revisions as new facilities are
2010 (ver 10.0830) - Reinstated in Tier-1 after dampening
overly optimistic medium term projection
(ver 11.0526) - n/a
Turner, Mason &
Company Consulting Engineers (ver 11.0331) - the newest member
of the Tier-1 family
(ver 11.0411) - Has probably the best database of world's oil
fields (IHS + proprietary)
Brandt-Farrell 2009 - Failed 2014 milepost test suggesting
105-mbd by that date (84 - 96 acceptable), production profile overly
William Carlson 2007 (logistic analysis) - Excellent effort, but
the Tier-1 Chart is limited to a single mathematical curve model
contribution (Laherrère preferred at this time).
CERA (ver 9.1106) - Has probably the second best
database (IHS) of world's oil fields. Until Dec/2012 had consistently
been the most
optimistic Peak Rate forecast since 2004.
2005 - Included in Top 4 most accurate 10-yr forecasts.
Tier-2 only 'cuz it is stale-dated. Also, this is the
Hail Mary version of EIA's multiple efforts. Reference
Scenario Sweetnam hybrid preferred.
EIA/Sweetnam 2009 - staledated due to 2008 base; its 2090
peak is latest of all models
EU 2007 WETO-POLES (reference case) - This is the Hail
version of WETO's 2 scenarios. & EU WETO-POLES 2007
(carbon constraint case) - n/a
IHS 2007 (ver 7.0109) - Failed 2013 milepost test
suggesting 103-mbd by that date (83 - 92 acceptable), production
profile overly optimistic.
- UK's Industry Taskforce Peak Oil Energy Security second report
abandoned its own science to produce a shameful agenda-driven
Kuwait Energy 2007 (ray leonard ver 7.0917) - Failed 2013
milepost test suggesting 97.5-mbd by that date (83 - 92 acceptable),
production profile overly optimistic. Intentional "dogleg"
Jean Laherrère (linearization ver 12.0801) -
TRENDLines Most Accurate Vintage Forecaster in 2008, 2009 & 2010.
Based on his two decade studies of Linearization modeling, Jean's
Model is the sole mathematics curve-based Outlook in our
Tier-1 presentation, and was one of our
original six back in 2004. lacks robustness of
Charles Maxwell (ver 11.1104) - newest member of the Tier-2
family; lacks robustness of peers.
Michael Lynch 1996 - 7.3-Tb URR is largest of Tier-2.
4th best on the Vintage Forecast Scoreboard ... downgraded to
Tier-2 only 'cuz it is stale-dated.
Michael Lynch 2012 - 8.0-Tb URR is largest of Tier-2.
4th best practitioner on the Vintage Forecast Scoreboard ... lacks
robustness of peers.
Leonardo Maugeri 2012 - lacks robustness of peers
Richard Miller 2012 (in practice scenario) - lacks
robustness of peers
Peter Odell2009 - Fails some reconciliation tests.
Appears to be a conjecture-based update of better previous dated
2007 - Failed 2013 milepost test suggesting 98.5-mbd Peak prior
to that date (83 - 92 acceptable), production profile overly
optimistic. An overly aggressive Decline Rate of 1.8% causes
major production profile "dogleg" after 2050.
Royal Dutch Shell 2011 (scramble scenario) - lacks
robustness of peers
2007 - Failed 2013 milepost test suggesting 99-mbd by that date (83
- 92 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.
Invalidated Scenarios Archive
Kjell Aleklett 2009 (ver 9.1109) - Erred by declaring 2008
was Peak Year
Samsam Bakhtiari 2003 WOCAP - Erred by a 2006 Peak of 81-mbd.
aggressive Decline Rate of 2.7% causes major production profile
after 2020. The most error-riddled effort, Bakhtiari
mistakenly built the model on ASPO's 1800-Gb Regular Conventional
URR platform instead of Campbell's 2900-Gb All Liquids URR.
Also integrity issue: upon failure,
not an All Liquids model.
Colin Campbell 1989
- Erred by declaring a 1989 Peak of 66-mbd. Listed for
historical significance purposes only. To be fair, this
original All Liquids projection was updated annually from
Colin Campbell 2011
(ver 11.0523) - Erred by declaring 2008 as Peak Year.
2011/6/19: TRENDLines has been fortunate & honoured to draw
Colin Campbell from retirement once again. Like me, he's just a
magnet to those Excel sheets, eh! Last month we updated Colin's
Regular Convention Oil targets. Today there's some fine tuning to
the decline profile of his All Liquids Depletion Model. Campbell has
issues with the BTU values within international data reporting and
as such remains committed to the 86-mbd of 2008 as being Peak Year.
Club of Rome's 1972
"Limits to Growth" - Representing All Liquids, it has been
misrepresented as forecasting "running out of oil". Presented
two years before Hubbert conventional oil release.
In 1972, the Club of Rome
MIT Globe3 model to design its long term outlook "Limits to Growth".
The petroleum projections within its global energy analysis seem to have
inspired MK Hubbert's 1974 major revision. Built on a 2.15-Tb URR, LTG
forecast a 117-mbd All Liquids Peak in 1995. Quick on its tail, Hubbert's
paper focused on Regular Conventional Crude only and projected a 111-mbd Peak,
also in 1995, but employing a 2-Tb URR void of NGL & non-conventionals.
Hubbert's previous paper had predicted a 34-mbd Peak.
Media references to LTG
often mistakenly quote its pessimist view of "running out oil" before the end of
the century. By depicting its findings in Invalidated Archive, it
is seen that its forecast for exhaustion was not 'til 2075 and clearly this
reference is out of context. It is but one more example that the alarmist
rhetoric by zealots within the McPeakster, McDoomer & Global Warming
fraternities have much to do with the marginalization of those movements by the
Mainstream Media and policy makers over the last two decades...
1999 - Best overall record on TrendLines Vintage prediction
Scoreboard. Eventually erred with a 2007 Peak of 87-mbd.
2008 - Erred by a 2006 Peak of 85 Mbd. 2011/6/19: Energy
Watch Group rejects new EIA data and remains committed to the 85-mbd
of 2006 being Peak Year.
(ver 11.1104) - Conjecture based; His effort is mainly for
pundit entertainment purposes. 2011/8/25: The early 2009
musings by Robert Hirsch proposed All Liquids production had indeed
peaked, would never see 87.0 Mbd and at best would maintain a
plateau 'til 2011. An early proponent of the 8% UDRO
(Underlying Decline Rate Observed) camp, he forecast a 4% post-peak
annual decline rate. The 2011 surge by Saudi Arabia forces a
downgrade of the Hirsch outlook from Tier-2 status and adds yet
another failed McPeakster projection to the Invalidated
M K Hubbert 1956
- Erred by a Y2k Peak of 34-mbd. Note production profile does
not incl NGL, Bitumen, X-Heavy, Polar Arctic, Deep Sea, CTL, GTL,
Kerogen or BTL.
M K Hubbert 1974
- Erred by a 1995 Peak of 111-mbd. Note production profile
does not incl NGL, Bitumen, X-Heavy, Polar Arctic, Deep Sea, CTL,
GTL, Kerogen or BTL.
Sadad al Husseini 2007 (rev 10.1109) - its 87-Mbd Peak Rate
forecast exceeded by actual production
Rembrandt Koppelaar 2009 (rapid conventional depletion/
accelerated nonconventional growth or rd/ag scenario) - Downgraded
'cuz latest version shifts profile to below Worst Case Scenario
Jeff Rubin 2009
- Erred by declaring 2008 was Peak Year; Production profile
fails robustness test by not addressing post 2015 exhaustion.
His effort is mainly for pundit entertainment purposes.
Matt Simmons 2008
(ver 8.0416) - Erred by declaring a 2007 Peak of 84.4-mbd.
Also, an overly aggressive Decline Rate of 7.0% infers a 1575-Gb URR
that is 449-Gb less than the most conservative recognized geologist
estimate (2024-Gb by EWG/LBST). His effort is mainly for
pundit entertainment purposes.
Tracking of Colin Campbell - ASPO/IE Depletion Model since 1989:
The highlighted years
of distinction are: 2008 (highest peak 97-Mbd), 2002 (2,900-Gb URR
high), 2011 (current update), 2004 (Colin Campbell's dark days call:
80mbd peak coming in 2006) & 1989 (Campbell's initial 66-mbd
Since 2004, TrendLines
Research has conducted due diligence on the Depletion Model for
inclusion in our Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios. This includes
reconciling the model's production profile with its URR.
Because Campbell's Depletion Model newsletter graphic ends in 2050,
it was unapparent to viewers that many of the model's early All
Liquids projections failed to sufficiently exhaust URR.
The above post-2050
resolution chart exposes the methodology errors of the Depletion
Model in its early days. In short, Campbell's low and/or early
Peaks and/or harsh post-Peak Decline Rates were too aggressive to
consume all his attributed URR, leaving production profile
"doglegs" in 1999, Y2k, 2001, 2002, 2003 & 2004. In the
dark days of 2004, it seems that Campbell was unduly influenced by
zealot members of the
McPeakster fraternity: he corrected his doglegs
by slashing All Liquids URR from 2900-Gb to 2400 albeit the
URR Estimates 17-model Avg was 2942-Gb at the time. All
Liquids Peak was advanced from 2012 to 2006 & Peak Rate was reduced
to 80-mbd from 87-mbd. Motivations at the time were
questionable ... and i did!!
My intervention and
vigilant scrutiny led to better quality projections by Campbell in
late 2005, 2006, 2007. Unfortunately, the Campbell 2008
Newsletters saw his stated 2007 production trimmed from 87-mbd in
January to a pathetic 81-mbd by December. As stated in the
Tier-2 footnotes, upon reconciling Campbell's data, we found
that he justified the low number by reducing NGL flow rates for 2007
& 2008 to a mere 5-mbd from his previous 8-mbd tally. When the
elusive 3-mbd NGL error is added back, his figures are in complete
agreement with the 84.4-mbd at EIA. Previously an eager
and forthright responder, it is with dismay that we report that to
date, Colin Campbell has refused to address this recent discrepancy
brought to his attention via our emails. (addendum: In
his Nov 9 2009 model update, Kjell Aleklett has conceded that he
erred in advising Campbell that an NGL downgrade was in order as he
finds EIA has already made the BTU adjustment)
These 5 contributors
to the Peak Oil debate have done excellent studies that
unfortunately are limited to more narrowly defined flows than All
Conventional Crude - Albert Bartlett (USA) ... actually, see
his projection in our new
RCC Scenarios chart!
RCC + NGL
- Ken Deffeyes (USA), Seppo Korpela
(USA), Renato Guseo (Italy), Kuwait University
(Nashawi et al) & John Walsh (Canada)
Tier-1 Scenarios Chart Archive
"charts only" from 2004 to 2013 available at
Chart Archive "with
2004 to 2013 available at
Feel free to
email me with questions, comments