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 Future:   2015/Oct Canada   2015/Oct Canada Ontario   2015/Oct Canada Nfld/Lab   2014/Aug Australia   2015/May UK   2016/Aug Canada Quebec   2016/Nov Race for the Whitehouse
 Past:   2012 Race for the Whitehouse 2011 Canada 2010 Australia 2010 UK 2009 Canada BC 2008 Canada Quebec 2008 Race for the WhiteHouse 2008 Canada 2008 Race for the Kremlin 2008 Pakistan 2007 Australia 2007 Canada Ontario 2007 Canada Nfld/Lab 2007 Canada Quebec 2006 Canada Yukon 2006 Canada 2004  Race for the WhiteHouse 2004 Canada

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[New!]elect ~  Nov 7th update of  Race-for-the-WhiteHouse 2012

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see also:  Hutter/Antweiler MP Riding Projection  for Canadian Federal Election reveals Conservatives were in post-Debates free-fall 'til Launch of SunNews

see also:  So, who had the best of 14 models this year? ... see the 2011 Scoreboard

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USA 2012 Presidential Electoral College Vote (ECV) Projection

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  Race-for-the-WhiteHouse:  Post-Mortem

Nov 7 2012 ~ Conversion of final polling data had inferred a 293-205 Obama lead after the final weekend and extrapolation of the general trend suggested a subdued 277-261 Obama victory.  The apparent 332-206 final result (55 ECV error) differs significantly from expectations...

With all the economic issues facing the USA and its federal gov't, one asks today how was it the republic failed in its opportunity to elect a successful businessman with proven political executive experience to the office of the Presidency.  Some would say the roots are in the flawed Republican Party Primary system where a candidate may be forced to adopt (temporary) extreme positions on issues dear to its religious zealots in some key States in order to secure the nomination.  Others would say the campaign was poorly run as illustrated by its tendency to allow the Obama campaign and the leftist media to dictate the daily and weekly narrative.  As such, this never became "the economy election" and social issues, tax returns and the 47% derailed the desired Romney message.

A dominant conclusion of last nite's results is reflected in this turn-of-phrase gone viral on the WWWeb today:  "Ask Not what you can do for your country; ask what your country can do for You."  It is also evident the USA faces two to four years of status-quo political gridlock.  This is entirely inopportune 'cuz Congressional failure to address its Debt Wall virtually ensures a Greek-scale treasuries yield crisis within a dozen years.  According to the TRENDLines Recession Indicator, addressing in the short term its massive trillion dollar Deficits could have avoided an ultimate Structural Depression.  But with the USA lacking the political leadership necessary to implement a sea change in its course, the model concludes that even if such change is implemented in 2016, the USA economy shall not have sufficient time to avoid an event which has the makings of a full-fledged Structural Greater Depression...

Among polling firms, Trendlines Research produced the most accurate ECV forecasts in 2004 & 2008.

  Blog Archive

 Nov 6 2012  ~ Obama Victory Projected ~ Mitt Romney re-acquired his momentum Saturday, but unfortunately it appears time has run out to close the deal.  Extrapolation of today's conversion of weekend polling data (293BO - 245MR) suggests the Democratic Party candidate has sufficient cushion to fend off the GOP camp.  The projected winner has changed several times since mid October.  Trendlines Research projects Barack Obama will secure a 277-261 ECV Victory today.  Obama requires a majority 270 ECVs for a win.  But with the Republicans holding a House of Representatives majority, Romney would be declared President if he secures a 269 ECV tie.

Nov 5 2012 ~ Time Runs Out for Romney ~ Post Sandy, Romney has his momentum back but unfortunately ... it appears time has run out to close the deal.  Extrapolation of today's 291-247 ECV Obama lead suggests the Democratic Party candidate has sufficient cushion to fend off the GOP camp.  The projected winner has changed several times since mid October.  And with just a day to go, Trendlines Research projects Obama will secure a 276-262 ECV win on Election Day (Nov 6th).  Obama requires a majority 270 ECVs for a win.  But with the Republicans holding a House of Representatives majority, Romney would be declared victorious if he secures a 269 ECV tie.

Romney had been the beneficiary of revelations the White House Administration had covered-up its knowledge of the events surrounding the terrorist assassination of the American ambassador in Benghazi Libya rewarded   Play-by-play details of that night by CIA operatives continue to leak out insinuating the Obama refused air-cover for the heroic rescue effort and worse - two weeks later he was at the UN still blaming a parody video saying it incited a spontaneous mob.  Most media outlets refused to air the disclosures to protect the President's tenuous lead and their focus on Hurricane Sandy in the final campaign week stymied the GOP candidate's surge...

Nov 4 2012 ~ Romney leaps the Sandy Sandbar ~ It appears Romney overcame the Sandy sandbar Saturday, but time is running out to close the gap.  Extrapolation of today's 295-243 ECV Obama lead suggests the Democratic Party nominee has sufficient margin to fend off the GOP camp.  With just two days to go, Trendlines Research projects the Democratic Party nominee will secure a 278-260 ECV win on Election Day (Nov 6th).  Romney had been the model's projected winner since Oct 15th when he first attained the 269 asymptote status.  Obama requires a majority 270 ECVs for a win.  But with the Republicans holding a House of Representatives majority, Romney would be declared victorious if he secures a 269 ECV tie.

The media continues to drive Hurricane Sandy photo-ops for the President instead of the outrage in New Jersey and New York.  Add this suppressed FEMA scandal to the White House Administration being exposed last week for covering-up its knowledge of the events surrounding the terrorist assassination of the American ambassador in Benghazi Libya.  Play-by-play details of that night by CIA operatives continue to leak out insinuating the Obama refused air-cover for the heroic rescue effort and worse - two weeks later he was at the UN still blaming a parody video saying it incited a spontaneous mob.  Most media outlets are refusing to air the revelations to protect the President's tenuous lead...

Oct 29 2012 ~ Projected Tie infers Romney Victory ~ Despite completion of all Debates and a race in the home stretch, all focus is on Hurricane Sandy and its fourteen foot tidal surge in NYC tonite!  GOP momentum appears to be stabilizing.  Extrapolation of today's 290-248 ECV Obama lead suggests the Democratic Party nominee has insufficient margin to fend off the Romney camp.  With just eight days to go, Trendlines Research projects the Republican Party nominee will secure a 269-269 ECV tie on Election Day (Nov 6th).  Romney has been the model's projected winner since Oct 15th when he first attained the 269 asymptote status.  Obama requires a majority 270 ECVs for a win.  But with the Republicans holding a House of Representatives majority, Romney would be declared victorious if he secures a 269 ECV tie.

The White House Administration has been exposed for covering-up its knowledge of the events surrounding the terrorist assassination of the American ambassador in Benghazi Libya.  Play-by-play details of that night via video and CIA operatives continues to leak out.  It suggests Obama refused air-cover for the heroic rescue effort and worse - two weeks later at the UN he was still blaming a parody video saying it incited a spontaneous mob.  That said, most media outlets are refusing to air the revelations to protect the President's tenuous lead.

Oct 22 2012 ~ Momentum suggests Slim Romney Victory ~ The last of four Debates was held tonite in an environment where momentum continues to build for the GOP.  Extrapolation of today's 286-252 ECV Obama lead suggests the Democratic Party nominee has insufficient margin to fend off the Romney camp.  With just fifteen days to go, Trendlines Research projects the Republican Party nominee will have a slim 272-266 ECV victory on Election Day (Nov 6th).  Romney has been the model's projected winner since Oct 15th when he attained a projected 269-269 tie.  Obama requires a majority 270 ECVs for a win.  But with the Republicans holding a House of Representatives majority, Romney would be declared victorious if he secures a 269 ECV tie.

The White House has been exposed for covering-up its knowledge of the events surrounding the terrorist assassination of the American ambassador in Benghazi Libya.  At his appearance at the UN two weeks after the event Obama was still blaming a parody video saying it incited a mob when if fact the Administration had a real-time video feed showing otherwise.  Most media outlets are refusing to air the revelations to protect the President's tenuous lead.

Oct 15 2012 ~ Projected Tie Gives Romney a Victory ~ Two of four Debates are in the books and momentum continues to build for the GOP, wiping out the Democratic Party's convention bump.  Extrapolation of today's 291-247 ECV Obama lead reveals Obama has insufficient margin to fend off the Romney camp.  At this time with just over three weeks to go, Trendlines Research projects the nominees will be locked in a 269-269 ECV tie on Election Day (Nov 6th).  Obama requires a majority 270 ECVs for a win.  But with the Republicans holding a House of Representatives majority, Romney would be declared victorious if he secures a 269 ECV tie.

The White House appears to be involved in a cover-up of the events surrounding the terrorist assassination of the American ambassador in Benghazi Libya.  At his appearance at the UN two weeks after the event Obama was still blaming a parody video saying it incited a mob.  Next Debate should be fiery...

Oct 8 2012 ~ Projected Tie Gives Romney a Victory ~ The first Debate is in the books.  Despite the Democratic campaign losing most of its Convention Bump, projection of its 304-234 ECV lead reveals Obama has sufficient margin to just barely fend off the momentum of the Romney camp.  At this time with just over four weeks to go, Trendlines Research projects the Democrat nominee will have a very slim 273-265 ECV lead on Election Day (Nov 6th).  Obama requires 270 ECVs for victory.  Because the Republicans hold a Majority in the House of Representatives, Romney would win if he secured 269 ECVs.

Barack Obama's 2012 battle continues to be with GDP ... not the GOP.  BEA says GDP growth was a robust 4.1% in December, 2.0% in March and 1.3% in June.  The TRENDLines Recession Indicator has been warning of a sub 1% Q3 since Memorial Day.  BEA will be announcing its GDP estimate 11 days prior to Election Day.  TRI predicts the agency will announce economic activity has waned to a mere 0.4% growth rate pace.  Similarly, BLS will probably announce a 7.9% Unemployment Rate and faltering job creation figures only four days before voters hit the polls.

Most Americans had tired of its mainstream media's ad nauseum and incessant failed predictions of a double-dip recession thru late-2009, 2010, 2011 & early-2012.  Strangely, now that those alerts should indeed be heeded, the mostly socialist-leaning media outlets have purged the double-dip rhetoric from their prognostications.  "Don't worry ... be happy" is their new motto as they blatantly attempt to protect "the chosen one" until his re-election is assured.

Oct 1 2012 ~ Obama Victory would be Slim ~ The Obama campaign's 319-219 ECV lead at the end of September has narrowed once again, but should be just barely enuf to fend off the momentum of the Romney camp.  The Democrat Convention Bump is waning.  At this time with just over five weeks to go, Trendlines Research projects the Democrat nominee will have a slim 272-266 ECV lead on Election Day (Nov 6th).

Barack Obama's battle continues to be with GDP ... not the GOP.  BEA says GDP growth was a robust 4.1% in December, 2.0% in March and 1.3% in June.  But the TRENDLines Recession Indicator gauges economic prospects have collapsed and has been forecasting a sub 1% Q3 since Memorial Day.  BEA will be announcing its GDP estimate 11 days prior to Election Day.  TRI predicts the agency will announce a -0.1% contraction.  Similarly, BLS will probably announce a 8.2% Unemployment Rate and faltering job creation figures only four days before voters hit the polls.

Sept 16 2012 ~ Obama secures Convention Bump ~ The Obama campaign's 332-206 ECV lead in mid September appears to be sufficient to fend off the momentum of the Romney camp.  The Democrat Convention Bump appears to exceed the Palin effect back in 2008.  The Republicans are hoping this week's 21-nation riots by Islamic extremists will underscore a failed Administration foreign policy.  At this time with just over seven weeks to go, Trendlines Research projects the Democrat nominee will maintain the upper hand and a 297-241 ECV lead on Election Day (Nov 6th).

Barack Obama's battle continues to be with GDP ... not the GOP.  BEA says GDP growth was a robust 4.1% in December.  But the TRENDLines Recession Indicator gauges economic prospects have collapsed and has been forecasting a sub 1% Q3 since Memorial Day.  BEA will be announcing its GDP estimate 11 days prior to Election Day.  TRI predicts it will be a mere 0.3% pace.  Similarly, BLS will probably announce an 8.2% Unemployment Rate and faltering job creation figures only four days before voters hit the polls.

Sept 1 2012 ~ Obama Fending Off Romney Momentum ~ The Obama campaign's 288-250 ECV lead at the end of August appears to be sufficient to fend off the momentum of the Romney camp.  The naming of Paul Ryan has invigourated the conservative camp and as the Republican Convention winds down, Trendlines Research projects the Democrat nominee will maintain the upper hand and a 275-263 ECV lead by Election Day (Nov 6th).

Barack Obama's battle continues to be with GDP ... not the GOP.  BEA says GDP was a robust 4.1% in December.  But the TRENDLines Recession Indicator gauges economic prospects have collapsed and has been forecasting a sub 1% Q3 since Memorial Day.  BEA will be announcing its GDP estimate 11 days prior to Election Day.  TRI predicts it will be a mere 0.4% pace.  Similarly, BLS will probably announce an 8.4% Unemployment Rate and faltering job creation figures only four days before voters hit the polls.

Aug 1 2012 ~ ECV Momentum with Romney ~ Albeit the Obama campaign had a 300-238 ECV lead at the end of July, the momentum is clearly with the Romney camp.  Trendlines Research projects Mitt Romney will gain the upper hand in late September and have a 293-245 ECV lead by Election Day (Nov 6th).

In the end, Barack Obama is fighting GDP ... not the GOP.  BEA says GDP was a robust 4.1% in December.  But the TRENDLines Recession Indicator gauges economic prospects have collapsed and has been forecasting a sub 1% Q3 since Memorial Day.  BEA will be announcing its GDP estimate 11 days prior to Election Day.  TRI predicts it will be a mere 0.6% pace.  Similarly, BLS will probably announce an 8.4% Unemployment Rate and faltering job creation figures only four days before voters hit the polls.

The general disinterest thus far in this year's Race for the White House is founded in GOP decisions made two years ago.  There was general belief Obama was unbeatable in 2012 and as such their numero uno candidates (mostly Governors) took passes on a run in the Republican primaries.  This left only the "B" team in the quest and their pathetic debate performances and campaign rhetoric gave many Americans the impression the current Party is full of idiots.  Even MSNBC, the TV arm of the Progressives, gave many events air-time to widen exposure of the extreme positions of this sad crop.

Among polling firms, Trendlines Research produced the most accurate ECV forecasts in 2004 & 2008.

 

USA 2008 Presidential Electoral College Vote (ECV) Projection

 

Nov 5 ~ As in 2004, TrendLines Research again had the best Electoral College Vote projection by North American Pollsters.

If their "too close to call" attributions of 53 & 64 are split between the Candidates, our 343 Obama tracking was followed by predictions of 338 by Zogby & 332 by Rasmussen respectively.

July 14 ~ Disgraceful fear mongering by the National Media has been admirably lampooned by the New Yorker & Jon Stewart.

 

July 25 ~ Media Leftist Bias?

Last week, the New York Times refused to publish John McCain's rebuttal to Barack Obama's Iraq op-ed.  It prompted author Wm Tate to investigate how widespread socialism pervades the MSM.  The figures speak for themselves...



USA Presidential Projection for 2004

Below is our projection for Bush's 2004 Electoral College win.  The TrendLines projection (280) was the most  accurate of all the online forecasts during the 2004 Campaign.  Despite the polls suggesting a 3% lead for Kerry, Bush in fact won (51% - 48%) on Election Day.

His final tally on Election Day was 286 EC Votes !!

Not bad, eh?!

The TrendLines Research ECV weekly projection was in fact the best call in 2004 of all the online pollster & political analyst forecasts!

Kerry had 251 EC Votes & Edwards rec'd 1 ECV that was deemed spoiled.



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March 1st 2007 - Please note that the TrendLines Federal Riding Projections will re-commence on April 5th !!

Evalina and i were fortunate to meet PM Stephen Harper during his visit to the Yukon to open the Canada Winter Games last month.  The PM has cast aside his ideological bias in recent months to facilitate governance rather than Party preference.  It is a strategy that has untold ramifications wrt gaining new sentiment while alienating some core support.

( 2008)

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