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 Politics ~ Election Projections ~  United Kingdom General Election 2010

 what's new, eh?

[New!]  MP Riding Projection for 2012 Federal (Canada) Election

 
9-poll avg   May 5th 2010 status

May 7 2010 update:  Final vote results!  Note that support levels for all have virtually returned to where they were on April 13th ... two days prior to the first Leaders Debate. 

May 6 2010:  The conversion of all yesterday's polls reveals Nick Clegg's surge peaked on April 20th (two days prior to the second Leaders Debate).  During his run, Clegg garnered sufficient support to take 34 potential seats from the Tories & 24 from Labour.  Sentiment has waned for Lib-Dems and to a lesser extent Labour over the fortnite.  The Conservatives clearly own the momentum.  One senses voters are fearful that the potential of a Labour/Lib-Dem Coalition strikes down their original preferred outcome:  scenarios vaulting David Cameron or even Clegg to #10 Downing.

The force driving positive Tory sentiment over these two weeks may be sudden cognizance by the electorate that giving Cameron a clear Majority is their only way of ridding themselves of PM Brown.  Unfortunately, the chart indicates that on its present trajectory, the Conservative Party is running out of time and will be shy of a Majority victory by May 6th.  If they fall short, Gordon Brown could still retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrat Party.  A similar Conservative Coalition with "the Others" is improbable due to the fragmented nature of those MPs.  But, an informal alliance with the 6 Unionist MPs from Northern Island could reduce Cameron's working Majority threshold to a more attainable 320.

Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 299 MPs (27 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has slid to 228 since a recent peak in mid-March.  The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 92 seats.  The "Others" lead in 31 and may also play a greater role in tight House of Commons votes.

Please scroll down a bit for Election Campaign (& pre-Election) Blog archive...

The daily chart's "May 5th" data points are derived by averaging results of 5 recognized Riding Projection models (Baxter, Hayfield, LSE & 2 by Hutter) with the input of 9 national pollsters conducted April 30 - May 5 2010.  Tardy polls or projections may cause revision of past data.

The "April" & "April 30th" data points on the charts are derived by averaging results of 5 recognized Riding Projection models (Baxter, Hayfield, Hutter x's 2 & LSE) with the input of 8 national pollsters conducted April 21-30  2010

The "March" & "April 1st" data points on the charts are derived by averaging results of 3 recognized Riding Projection models (Baxter, Hayfield & Wells) with the input of 8 national pollsters conducted March 21-April 1  2010

35.7% 299 Conservative MPs
27.6% 228 Labour MPs
27.6% 92 Liberal Democrat MPs
9.1%

31 Irish, Scot & other MPs
100%   650 total HofC MPs

This monthly chart tracks the monthly avg of sentiment & resultant seat projection conversions over the past 4 years.

Now that the Election Campaign is under way, see our new daily chart above to view the volatility and most current results in higher resolution.

Re-watch the April 15/22/29 Leaders Debates:  live streaming @ www.c-span.org, live cable & satellite @ BBC World News (ShawDirect) & tape delay web streaming, cable & satellite @ www.cpac.ca

Since 2007, we have tracked avg polling sentiment and have converted this data to seat projections employing the tools made available by Martin Baxter (Electoral Calculus) & Anthony Wells (UK Polling Report.  The monthly avg of the seat projections has included studies by Harry Hayfield since Autumn 2008.  For the 2010 Campaign period, the avg has included Martin Baxter (Electoral Calculus)'s own hybrid numbers as well as those by the London School of Economics ... five in total doing stellar work for little recognition.  All monthly figures since the 2005 Election are based on inputting the recognized published national/regional Public Opinion Poll data (with avg 3% margin of error).  Please note that fine tuning of the models sometimes affects older data entries on the chart.  Older chart values have been deleted for smoothing & clarity.  Only the Yukon Projection includes direct opinion polling by TrendLines Research.

Election Campaign Blog:

May 5 2010: With only hours of campaigning left, conversion of this week's polls reveals Nick Clegg's surge peaked on April 20th (two days prior to the second Leaders Debate). During his run, Clegg garnered sufficient support to take 34 potential seats from the Tories & 24 from Labour. Sentiment has waned for Lib-Dems and to a lesser extent Labour over the fortnite. The Conservatives clearly own the momentum. One senses voters are fearful that the potential of a Labour/Lib-Dem Coalition strikes down their original preferred outcome: scenarios vaulting David Cameron or even Clegg to #10 Downing.  The force driving positive Tory sentiment over these two weeks may be sudden cognizance by the electorate that giving Cameron a clear Majority is their only way of ridding themselves of PM Brown. Unfortunately, the chart indicates that on its present trajectory, the Conservative Party is running out of time and will be shy of a Majority victory by May 6th. If they fall short, Gordon Brown could still retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrat Party. A similar Conservative Coalition with "the Others" is improbable due to the fragmented nature of those MPs. But, an informal alliance with the 6 Unionist MPs from Northern Island could reduce Cameron's working Majority threshold to a more attainable 320.  Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 299 MPs (27 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has slid to 227 since a recent peak in mid-March. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 93 seats. The "Others" lead in 31 and may also play a greater role in tight House of Commons votes.

May 4 2010: With only a day of campaigning left, conversion of new polls reveals Nick Clegg's surge peaked on April 20th (two days prior to the second Leaders Debate). During his run, Clegg drew 34 potential seats from the Tories and 24 from Labour. But as sentiment has waned over the fortnite, the gain has been exclusively in the Conservative's favour. The Tories clearly own the momentum presently. One senses that voters are fearful that the potential of a Labour/Lib-Dem Coalition strikes down their original preferred outcome: scenarios vaulting David Cameron or even Clegg to #10 Downing.  The force driving positive Tory sentiment over these two weeks may be sudden cognizance by the electorate that giving Cameron a clear Majority is their only way of ridding themselves of PM Brown. Unfortunately, the chart indicates that on its present trajectory, the Conservative Party may be just inches shy of a Majority victory by May 6th. But if they fall short, Gordon Brown could still retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrat Party. A similar Conservative Coalition with "the Others" is improbable due to the fragmented nature of those MPs. But an informal alliance with the 6 Unionist MPs from Northern Island could reduce Cameron's Majority threshold to a more accessible 320.  Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 293 MPs (37 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has slid to 227 since a recent peak in mid March. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 98 seats. The "Others" lead in 32 and may also play a greater role in tight House of Commons votes.

May 3 2010: With only two days of campaigning left after today, conversion of new polls reveals Nick Clegg's surge peaked April 20th and support continues to wane. Labour's hemorrhaging of 51 potential seats reflects a trend starting six weeks ago. The Tories clearly have momentum. One senses that voters are fearful a Coalition is the "hidden agenda" that presents a scenario fulfilling neither of their wishes: promoting either Cameron or even Clegg as PM.  Something has been driving the growing positive Tory sentiment since April 20th. It may be the electorate understands that giving Cameron a clear Majority is their only way of ridding themselves of PM Brown. The chart indicates that on the present trajectory, the Conservative Party may be within inches of a Majority victory by May 6th. But if he falls short, Gordon Brown could still retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrat Party. A similar Conservative Coalition with "the Others" is improbable due to the fragmented nature of those MPs.  Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 296 MPs (30 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has slid to 224. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 98 seats. The "Others" lead in 32.

May 2 2010:  With only three days of campaigning left after today, conversion of new polls reveals Nick Clegg's surge peaked April 20th and support continues to wane.  Labour's recent hemorrhaging over the fortnite has been less severe.  The Tories clearly have momentum.  One senses that voters are fearful a Coalition is the "hidden agenda" that presents a scenario fulfilling neither of their wishes:  promoting either Cameron or even Clegg as PM.  Something has been driving the growing positive Tory sentiment since April 20th.  It may be the electorate understands that giving Cameron a clear Majority is their only way of ridding themselves of PM Brown.  The chart indicates that on the present trajectory, the Conservative Party may be within inches of a Majority victory on May 6th.  But if he falls short, Gordon Brown could still retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrat Party.  A similar Conservative Coalition with "the Others" is improbable due to the fragmented nature of those MPs.  Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 298 MPs (28 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has slid to 218.  The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 102 seats.  The "Others" lead in 32.

May 1 2010: With only four days of campaigning left, conversion of new polls reveals Nick Clegg's surge peaked April 20th and support continues to wane. Labour has generally stabilized, and it is the Tories with the momentum. On the present trajectory, David Cameron may be within inches of a Majority victory on May 6th. But if he falls short, Gordon Brown could still retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrat Party.  Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 297 MPs (29 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has slid to 221. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 100 seats. The "Others" lead in 32.

April 30 2010: With only five days of campaigning left, conversion of new polls reveals Nick Clegg's surge peaked April 20th and is presently waning. Meanwhile Labour & the Tories have stabilized in a fairly tight channels. On the present trajectory, it is improbable David Cameron will attain the elusive Majority on May 6th. If he falls short, Gordon Brown could still retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrat Party.  Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 286 MPs (40 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has slid to 229. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 103 seats. The "Others" lead in 32.

April 28 2010: With only seven days of campaigning left, tomorrow's third and final Leaders Debate could be the final opportunity for one of the Parties to shake up sentiment. Conversion of new polls reveals Nick Clegg's surge has ran oudda gas and Labour support is being lost to the Tories. On the present trajectory, David Cameron may be within inches of a Majority victory on May 6th. If he falls short, Gordon Brown could still retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrat Party.  Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 292 MPs (34 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has slid to 214. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 113 seats. The "Others" lead in 31.

April 27 2010: With only eight days of campaigning and one Leaders Debate to go, conversion of new polls reveals it is now the Conservative Party with the sure momentum. Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrat Party was seen for seven days to be "the great white hope" but a savvy electorate soon realized that instead of voting in a left of center government, they were potentially electing an enabler for Gordon Brown to retain PM status. And given the choice between the Conservatives and a Labour/Lib-Dem Coalition, voters seem to be gritting it and going with David Cameron after all.

Via published seat projections, it quickly became clear Liberal Democrat support across the UK was just too widely dispersed for them to take the lead, They lacked the regional concentrations that should give a Party alotta MPs considering the second place (31%) sentiment status once enjoyed. It's also possible that in peering over the crevice prior to the great leap (in faith), the electorate assessed Clegg as a lone superstars lacking a strong team for Cabinet-building purposes. Cameron faced this exact same doubt sixty days back. It calls into question whether these two Parties are genuine governments-in-waiting. Fortunately for Cameron, PM Brown is so despised presently that the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition may ultimately get the nod. At this juncture, it appears Voters respect all three Leaders, their platforms and/or the local candidate sufficiently that they may choose the path of a hung (Minority) parliament to see what cream rises to the top over the next few seasons. Thursday's Debate may make the difference.

Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 288 MPs (38 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has slid to 226. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 104 seats. The "Others" lead in 32.

April 26 2010: With only nine days and one Leaders Debate to go, conversion of new polls reveals it is now the Conservative Party with the sure momentum. Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrat Party was seen for awhile to be "the great white hope" but a savvy electorate soon realized that instead of voting in a left of center government, they were potentially electing an enabler for Gordon Brown to retain PM status ... via a Coalition. And given the choice between the Conservatives and a Labour/Lib-Dem alliance, voters seem to be gritting and going with David Cameron after all.

It has become clear via the published seat projections that Liberal Democrat support around the UK was just too widely dispersed for them to take the lead, They have no regional concentrations that should give a Party alotta MPs considering the second place (29%) sentiment status enjoyed. It is also possible that in peering over the precipice before changing horses, both Clegg & Cameron are ultimately assessed as lone superstars lacking a strong team for Cabinet-building purposes. It calls into question whether these Parties are genuine governments-in-waiting. But Brown is so despised, that Cameron gets the nod none-the-less. At this juncture, it appears Voters like all three Leaders, their platforms and/or the local candidate sufficiently to choose the path of a hung (Minority) parliament and see what cream rises to the top over the next few seasons. Thursday's Debate may make the difference.

Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 289 MPs (37 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party sits at 222. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 107 seats. The "Others" lead in 32.

April 25 2010: With ten days and one Leaders Debate to go, conversion of new polls reveals hemorrhaging of Labour/Conservative support to the Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrat Party has at least temporarily come to an end. With 29% sentiment, they remain in second place ... but the widespread nature of their support is not translating into expected seats. Performance in the final Debate on Thursday may be the difference between one becoming PM or Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Or, will a Coalition agreement thwart a Minority victory? Can charisma trump platform?  Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 282 MPs (44 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party sits at 229. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 108 seats. The "Others" lead in 31.

April 24 2010: With eleven days and one Leaders Debate to go, conversion of new polls continues to demonstrate good momentum for Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrat Party. At 31%, they've vaulted ahead of the Labour Party in sentiment, but still trail using the average of five seat projections. Performance in the final Debate on Thursday may be the difference between one becoming PM or Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Or, will a Coalition agreement thwart a Minority victory? Can charisma trump platform?  Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 278 MPs (48 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has slipped to 220. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 114 seats. The "Others" lead in 30.

April 20 2010: With fifteen days to go, conversion of new polls continues to demonstrate good momentum for Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrat Party after last week's historic first televised Leaders Debate. At 29%, they've vaulted ahead of the Labour Party. Anticipation builds for the next Debate on Thursday.  Under the Westminster electoral system, the Party winning the most seats on election nite is not necessarily awarded governance if it does not attain Majority status. That privilege goes to the Party that has the command of the House of Commons. In short, should Nick Clegg announce post-Election that he intends to use his Balance of Power to support the Labour Party (to which his platform is better aligned) rather than the Conservatives, then Gordon Brown may retain his Prime Ministership. This could be accomplished by an informal alliance or via a formal Coalition. Upon the latter, it is probable that Clegg would be invited into Cabinet.  Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 283 MPs (43 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has slipped to 236. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 101 seats. The "Others" category has 30.

April 19 2010: With sixteen days to go, conversion of new polls continues to reveal Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrat Party has good momentum since last week's first televised Leaders Debate. At 29%, they've vaulted ahead of the Labour Party. Anticipation is building for the next Debate on Thursday.  Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 283 MPs (43 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has slipped to 239. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 98 seats. The "Others" category has 30.

April 17 2010: With less than three weeks to go, everyone is in shock that the reasonably good performance by Nick Clegg has helped vault the sentiment for his Liberal Democrat Party to such a degree ... up 5% this month. This will only enhance the anticipation for Thursday's next Leaders Debate.  Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 287 MPs (39 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party is mired at 251. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 81 seats. The "Others" category has 31.

April 13 2010: With less than four weeks to go, sentiment has attained some degree of stability. There is some degree of anticipation to see the next set of polling numbers, which will be the first after Thursday's Leaders' Debate. Two more debates will follow on successive Thursdays.  Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 306 MPs (20 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has risen to 255. The balance of power is shared by the Liberal-Democrats, ahead in 58 seats & the 31 "Others" category.

April 10 2010:  With less than four weeks to go, we're pleased to add a fourth practitioner to our multi-model avg:  the effort by the London School of Economics.  Today's update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 312 MPs (14 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has slipped to 251 ... continuing a divergence that commenced March 15th.  The balance of power is shared by the Liberal-Democrats, ahead in 56 seats & the 31 "Others" category.

April 7 2010: With 29 days to go, most everyone is surprised to see a shift of only 18 MPs will decide the outcome of the May 6th Election. Today's update reveals PM Brown's Labour Party commences the election campaign with a lead in 264 Seats, 2 more than a week ago. Cameron's Tories have lost 7 potentials and sit with 300 MPs. The Liberal Democrats are ahead in 55 (up 6) and hold the balance of power at this time...

Pre-Election Blog:

March 20 2010:  With less than 11 weeks to the UK Election, folks ... we have a horse race!  On New Year's Day, Labour was reconciled to defeat as they sat upon an ominous seat projection of only 191 MPs.  Truly a remarkable turn of events has transpired in the ensuing weeks.  For the fourth time since the 2005 Election, one of the Parties has closed an ultra major gap.  Our tracking of the average of recognized projection models illustrates a reversal of momentum occurs approx every 14 months.

Today's update reveals PM Brown's Labour Party would have commenced a hypothetical mid-March election campaign with a lead in 275 Seats, 39 more than fifteen days prior.  Cameron's Tories have lost 32 potentials and sit with 296 MPs.  The Liberal Democrats are ahead in 48 (down 5).

 

March 12 2010:  Brown's Labour Party would have commenced a hypothetical early March election campaign with a lead in 236 Seats, 24 more than thirty days prior.  The Liberal Democrats are ahead in 53 (down 4).  Cameron's Tories have lost 21 potentials and sit with 328 MPs.  Based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Conservative Party is poised for an ultimate 368 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.

 

Feb 12 2010:  Brown's Labour Party would have commenced a hypothetical early February election campaign with a lead in 212 Seats, 21 more than thirty days prior.  The Liberal Democrats are ahead in 57 (up 1).  Cameron's Tories have lost 17 potentials and sit with 349 MPs.  Based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Conservative Party is poised for an ultimate 378 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.

 

Jan 28 2009:  Brown's Labour Party would have commenced a hypothetical early January election campaign with a lead in 191 Seats, 32 less than thirty days prior.  The Liberal Democrats are ahead in 56 (up 4).  Cameron's Tories have gained 23 potentials and sit with 366 MPs.  Based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Conservative Party is poised for an ultimate 385 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.

 

Dec 18 2009:  Brown's Labour Party would have commenced a hypothetical early December election campaign with a lead in 223 Seats, 31 more than 30 days prior. The Liberal Democrats are ahead in 52 (same). Cameron's Tories have lost 31 potentials and sit with 343 MPs. Based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Conservative Party is poised for an ultimate 388 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.
 

Nov 28 2009:  Brown's Labour Party would have commenced a hypothetical early November election campaign with a lead in 192 Seats, 2 more than 30 days prior.  The Liberal Democrats are ahead in 52 (down 16).  Cameron's Tories have gained 14 potentials and sit with 374 MPs.  Based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Conservative Party is poised for an ultimate 397 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.

 

Nov 21 2009:  Less than 29 weeks to the UK Election ...

Brown's Labour Party would have commenced a hypothetical early October election campaign with a lead in 190 Seats, 1 less than 30 days prior.  The Liberal Democrats are ahead in 68.  Cameron's Tories have lost 26 potentials and sit with 360 MPs.  And, based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Conservative Party is poised for an ultimate 399 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.

 

Nov 15 2009:  No mitigation of train wreck ahead ...

The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early September election campaign with a lead in 386 Seats.  And based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Tories are poised for an ultimate 408 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.  Our Election Day targets are of course vulnerable to interim events en route and subject to the dynamics within an ultimate Election Campaign.

 

Sept 26 2009:  The trends continue unabated ...

The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early August election campaign with a lead in 381 Seats.  And based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Tories are poised for an ultimate 405 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.

 

Sept 20 2009: The trends continue ...


The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early July election campaign with a lead in 334 Seats. And based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Tories are poised for an ultimate 406 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.
 

Sept 12 2009:  This still looks grim...

The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early June election campaign with a lead in 385 Seats.  And based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Tories are poised for an ultimate 424 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.

 

Sept 7 2009:  This looks grim...

The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early May election campaign with a lead in 393 Seats.  And based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Tories are poised for an ultimate 420 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.

 

April 11 2009:  A couple of internationally high profile months for Gordon Brown have done little to stem the sentiment momentum for the Cameron Conservatives ... with 14 months remaining in Brown's mandate.

The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early April election campaign with a lead in 370 Seats.  And based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Tories are poised for an ultimate 411 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.

 

Feb 22nd 2009:  A major shift in sentiment in January benefitted the Conservatives ... with 16 months remaining in Brown's mandate.

The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical late January Election campaign with a lead in 360 Seats.  And based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Cameron Tories are poised for an ultimate 412 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.

 

Jan 21st 2009:  The Credit Crisis & subsequent Recessionary pressure continues to result in hemorrhaging for the Conservatives.  A seemingly insurmountable lead is now but a tender gap ... with 15 months remaining in Brown's mandate.

The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical late December Election campaign with a lead in 296 Seats.  Further, based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Cameron Tories are poised for an ultimate 414 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.

 

Dec 19th 2008:  The Credit Crisis & subsequent Recessionary pressure continues to result in hemorrhaging for the Conservatives.  A seemingly insurmountable lead is now but a tender gap ... with 17 months remaining in Brown's mandate.

The Conservative Party was poised for a 325-MP Minority had there been a late November Election.  Based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects as an ultimate Target for 2010 a 461-MP Conservative Majority.

 

Nov 27th 2008:  Today's update blends a third seat projection model into the monthly average as we introduce the stalwart studies of Harry Hayfield.

As the Credit Crunch spawns a Recession, downward momentum continues for the Conservatives ... with 18 months to go in Brown's mandate.  The October figures reflect revisions to 3 Seat Projection models & the updating of 6 national polls.

Straight conversion of the latest October surveys yields 361-C, 217-L, 35-L/D & 37-O.  Based on the underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects as ultimate Targets for 2010:  499 Conservatives, 76 Labour, 46 Liberal-Democrats, 18 Irish & 11 Others.

The "Oct" data points in the chart are derived by averaging results of 3 recognized Riding Projection models (Baxter, Hayfield & Wells) with the input of 6 national pollsters conducted Oct 3-Nov 1  2008.

 

Oct 25th 2008:  The current Liquidity Crisis curbed the momentum of the Conservatives in Canada;  body checked the conservative McCain/Palin ticket in the USA; and is presently thwarting a Conservative landslide in the UK ... with 20 months to go in Brown's mandate.  These September figures reflect revisions to two Seat Projection models & the updating of 5 national polls.

Straight conversion of the latest Sept surveys yields 378-C, 214-L, 30-L/D, 28-O.  However, these outlier results should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has more confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our Election Day Long-Term Momentum trend line & ultimate Targets for 2010: 511 Conservatives, 70 Labour, 44 Liberal-Democrats, 18 Irish & 7 Others  (see dotted lines in the chart). 

The "Sept" data points in the chart are derived by averaging results of 2 recognized Riding Projection models (Baxter & Wells) with the input of 5 national pollsters conducted Sept 12-28  2008.

 

Sept 22nd 2008:  Contemplation of Leadership change for the Labour Party dominated last month's issues ... with 21 months to go in Brown's mandate.  The August figures reflect revisions to two Seat Projection models & the updating of 6 national polls.

Straight conversion of the latest August surveys yields 421-C, 173-L, 27-L/D, 29-O.  However, these outlier results should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has more confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our Election Day Long-Term Momentum trend line & ultimate Targets for 2010: 510 Conservatives, 68 Labour, 47 Liberal-Democrats, 18 Irish & 7 Others  (see dotted lines in the chart). 

The "August" data points in the chart are derived by averaging results of 2 recognized Riding Projection models (Baxter & Wells) with the input of 6 national pollsters conducted Aug 1-31  2008.

 

Aug 24th 2008:  Again, both the TrendLines "today" & "2010 Target" are indicating Conservative Party wins.

Today's chart status of 417/177/27/29 MPs (and all figures since the 2005 Election) are the compiled average of available recognized Riding Projection models mentioned in the footnotes.  Each projection model has its own methodology of converting polling data into winnable Seats by the Parties.  TrendLines Research then extrapolates each Party's long term trend to project their probable status by Election Day.

Albeit our Seat Projection Chart illustrates the Conservative Party status at 417 potential MPs as of today, present momentum (represented by the above long term trend line) indicates that they will attain an ultimate Majority victory of 454 by June 3rd 2010.  The Labour Party will retain only 115 MPs.  Present trends foresee the Liberal Democrats rising to 56 Seats while the "others" are mired at 25 (incl 18 Irish MPs).  The "today" conversion is based on 2 models and their conversion of surveys by 5 recognized pollsters conducted July 17 - Aug 1  2008.

 

July 19th 2008:  For the first time, both the TrendLines "today" & "2010 Target" are indicating Conservative Party wins.  They are on a journey to 384 MPs upon waiting out Brown's mandate.

 

May 20th 2008:  Albeit the long term trend line indicates a substantial Labour Majority in 2010, the Labour Party would most probably lose governance if the Election was this Spring.

 

April 18th 2008:  Albeit the long term trend line indicates a slight Labour Majority in 2010, the Labour Party would most probably lose governance any Election in 2008.

 

March 18th 2008:  A quite tight race ...

 

Feb 16th 2008:  In some circles, he'd be known as "the come-back kid"...

 

Jan 12th 2008:  Labour's hemorrhaging seems to have stopped for the moment.  And to the Tories' dismay, they still got two and a half years to regroup.  Long term trends are still positive for Labour and stronger for the Lib/Dems.  Albeit our Seat Projection Chart illustrates Conservative Party status at 314 potential MPPs as of today, present momentum (represented by the above long term trend line) would indicate that Gordon Brown's Labour Party may rebound on the journey towards  an ultimate Minority victory of 308 by June 3rd 2010.

 

Dec 12th 2008:  "Am i ever glad we didn't call the fricken Election!"

 

Oct 11th 2007:  Conversion by Seat Projection Models of final September polling reflected in our inaugural UK Riding Projection Charts suggests that the Labour Party's 47% bump in potential Seats associated with the honeymoon phenom surrounding Gordon Brown's successful leadership bid was perhaps at peak at month end.


Random commentary:

Oct 11th 2007:  Conversion by Seat Projection Models of final September polling reflected in our inaugural UK Riding Projection Charts suggests that the Labour Party's 47% bump in potential Seats associated with the honeymoon phenom surrounding Gordon Brown's successful leadership bid was perhaps at peak at month end.

 

 

 

March 1st 2007 - Please note that the TrendLines Federal Riding Projections will re-commence on April 5th !!

Evalina and i were fortunate to meet PM Stephen Harper during his visit to the Yukon to open the Canada Winter Games last month.  The PM has cast aside his ideological bias in recent months to facilitate governance rather than Party preference.  It is a strategy that has untold ramifications wrt gaining new sentiment while alienating some core support.

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Last modified: August 09, 2012