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Trendlines Research  ...   Long-Term multi-disciplinary Perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989
 
 Future:     2009/May Canada BC         2010 UK   2012 Canada Ontario 2012 Canada Nfld/Lab 2012 Canada 2012 Race for the Whitehouse
 Past: 2008 Canada Quebec 2008/Nov Race for the Whitehouse 2008/Oct Canada 2008 Race for the Kremlin 2008 Pakistan 2007 Australia 2007 Canada Ontario 2007 Canada Nfld/Lab 2007 Canada Quebec 2006 Canada Yukon 2006 Canada 2004 Race for the Whitehouse 2004 Canada
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Seat Projections ~ 2008 Quebec Provincial Election

 what's new, eh?

[New!]  Current MP Riding Projection plus Momentum Trend for the 2012 Canadian Election

[New!]  MP Seat Projection for 2010 UK General Election for the House of Commons ~ Conservative Party Poised for Governance, But Losing Momentum

 

Dec 7  2008 ~ With collapse of Dumont's ADQ a virtual certainty, the Charest Liberals are poised for a 73 - 49 Majority over the Party Quebecois, with 3 for ADQ.

Today's TrendLines Research targets are based primarily on conversion of 3 Provincial polls conducted Nov 28 - Dec 5 (Angus Reid, CROP & Leger) by 4 seat projection models:  Nick Boragina, …rikG (308.dotcom), Greg Morrow (DemocraticSpace) & our own application of the H&K Predictor ... plus a final overlay of our momentum targets.

Dec 8 ~ Congrat's to …rikG (threehundredeight.com) on this year's best forecast!

 

How did the Riding Projection models fare this year?   And over 2 Elections?

     

Quebec Election 2008

Nick Boragina

nixtuff

…ricG

308dotcom

Greg Morrow

Democratic Space

Freddy Hutter TrendLines via Hill & Knowlton Predictor Freddy Hutter TrendLines via Momentum Indicator TrendLines MultiModel

4-model Avg

  FINAL
Liberal 75 68 72 78 73 73   66
PQ 46 53 49 46 49 49 51
ADQ 4 4 4 1 3 3 7
S/G/Indep't - - - - - -   1
    125

 rev 2008/12/08 11pm PST    

Riding Errors:   18 8 11 24 14 14  
 2008    Rating: 5th 1st 2nd 6th 3rd 3rd
2007:     3rd 1st   1st
2007 Riding Errors:     34 32   32
Low point score     5 7   4
Best Record after 2 Elections:      2nd  3rd    1st

 

Seat Projections ~ 2007 Quebec Provincial Election

 



Seat Projection for 2007  Quebec Provincial Election:

March 26th 2007 - TrendLines Research Quebec Election riding projections (based on modeling by Tonie Chaltas & Gregory Morrow on Opinion Polls to March 24th) vs final Actual Results:

TrendLines Final Quebec 2007 Riding Projections:  

ElectionsQuebec Mar 26th 2007 Actual Tally:

51 MNA's 48
25 MNA's 41
49 MNA's 36
     
125

MNA:  Member of the Quebec  Nat'l Assembly (Majority = 63 Ridings)

125

Everyone agreed the political climate had been volatile the last 72 hours ... But this "Oops" is reminiscent of the NDP Bob Rae catapult in early 90's Ontario!!

Mario Dumont of the ADQ is no doubt Canada's politician of the Year with today's outstanding performance.

Further, it has immense national implications.  Nobody in Canada had heard of "the fiscal imbalance" before Gilles Duceppe's bringing it to the forefront.  He must be given credit for alerting Canadians to this sore point in Quebec.  In turn, Stephen Harper agreed at the time to address the issue and took the first bold step via last week's Budget amid widespread criticism.

Well, a week later we awake to a Quebec with a whole new landscape ... one void of the PQ as a viable political option for the Quebecois.   Well done.

Pollster totals were reasonable correct for the Liberals & PQ; but failed to catch an Election Day move by Green Party supporters (2.4%) to the ADQ.  This was the margin in the three way races.  In BC in 2004, the Green Party vote splits robbed the NDP of governance.  Today, last minute Green Party disloyalty and/or strategic voting displaced the Opposition.  Federalists in the Province of Quebec have a new home.  Tomorrow is the first day of the end of the Secessionist Movement in Quebec.

Scroll above/below or use the menu for our Federal, Ontario, Yukon & USA "Race for the Whitehouse" projections.

 

 



 

March 1st 2007 - Please note that the TrendLines Federal Riding Projections will re-commence on April 5th !!

Evalina and i were fortunate to meet PM Stephen Harper during his visit to the Yukon to open the Canada Winter Games last month.  The PM has cast aside his ideological bias in recent months to facilitate governance rather than Party preference.  It is a strategy that has untold ramifications wrt gaining new sentiment while alienating some core support.



These are our most recent free charts ... please click a graph or the specialty links below for more charts & discussion

 

2008)

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Beware ... the Lunatic Fringe

MemberVenue:   PeakOil   Economics   ClimateChange   Elections

  Canada Flag
Trendlines Research  ...   Long-Term multi-disciplinary Perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989
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