Election Day Blog:
Oct 10th 2007
The polls close at 9pm EDT.
Oct 10th 2007
All the models' final numbers have been logged on our Scoreboard.
We'll check once again before the counting begins...
Oct 10th 2007
Congrat's to David MacDonald of NODICE on his awesome
Newfoundland Election Seat
Projection. He used the Antweiler application but
the only poll data was from August!
Oct 10th 2007
A late "revision" to the Morrow "Final Revision" changes some of the
chart and Scoreboard numbers. And more bleeding...
Oct 10th 2007
I go back a few decades, but i still can't remember a day when four
major polls were released (Harris-Decima, Strategic Counsel,
Environics & SES. In fact it's six when we include the
Thanxgiving Weekend releases by Angus Reid & Ipsos. Wow!
Nik Nanos of SES Research has owned
the bragging rights in the polling circles since his coup in January
2006. This week's barrage is all about "unseating" him.
But whoever's poll u read today,
the bad news for John
Tory is that the hemorrhaging continues.
Altho the AVG of all
the Riding Projections says 68 Liberal MPPs will be elected today,
our TrendLines Research prediction is 63 and is based on our
intuition that the Undecided and Strategic Vote factors will dampen
the voting pattern as represented by the dotted target trendlines in
the upper chart. These "target" figures are in the table to
The finest Seat
Predictions in the past two Cndn Federal Elections were by Milton
Chan, Greg Morrow, Ekos & the UBC Stock Forecaster. Come
back tonite to see how the 8 2007 Riding Projections each did in the
end! We've also enhanced our Riding Projection Scoreboards for
the past two Canadian Federal Elections ... a dozen modelers in all
yesterday, the 2007 Campaign exits the Thanxgiving weekend with the
Liberal Party at its highest Seat Projection since March 2005 ...
and vice versa for the PCs. The NDP have been in a 9 - 14
range over those 31 months as seen in the long term chart above.
sentiment gauged over only the last 19 days, the 8 Riding Projection
models are in agreement that the Liberal Party is currently in the
64 - 73 MPP range; PC support today would indicate 24 - 35
winnable Ridings; and the NDP with 8 - 13 seats.
Today's chart status
of 68/28/11 (and all figures since the 2003 Election) are the
compiled avg of available recognized Riding Projections mentioned in
& in our new 2007
Scoreboard. Each projection
model has its own methodology of converting polling/canvassing data
to estimates of winnable Ridings by the Parties.
The "today" or "October" conversions on both charts are based all 8
models and their analysis of recognized polling/canvassing completed
Sept 21 - Oct 9.
Since the 2003
Election, TrendLines Research has been plotting the avg of
available projections and then extrapolating each Party's long term
trend to project their probable status forward to Election Day.
We call this evolving number our Election Day Target.
Albeit our Riding
Projection chart illustrates their status at
68 potential MPPs as of today, present core momentum
(represented by the same chart's long term trendline) would indicate
that the Liberal Party may lose 5 additional Seats on the way to
a reduced Majority of 63 on Election Nite.
The PC's will likely rise to 33 MPPs & the NDP are mired at 11.
I've developed this trendline methodology to better predict Election
Day surprises which accounted for errors of about 28 Ridings in the
last two Canadian Federal Elections as measured by the
TrendLines AVG Projection. We have our finger crossed, eh!
The Campaign period or
Writ Chart reflects that
since June 4th, TrendLines Research
has been predicting a Liberal Party Majority with Election Day
targets ranging from 59-64 MPP's. The
model blends the data from available pre-Campaign Riding Projections
and generates high/low Election Day Targets for the Party
most likely to prevail. The 8 Riding Projections' data during
the course of the Writ slowly refines this high/low range. For
the Liberals, the figures had narrowed to
69/54 by Sept 18th. The low of 54 MPPs had
obvious significance and barring breaking scandal or an
unconventional event ... on Sept 18th TrendLines Research
declared that a Liberal Majority was inevitable from that point in
Going into the final days of the Campaign, we are pleased to wrap up
this project with the addition of an 8th Riding Projection Model ...
by Graham Murray. TrendLiners may remember that Alan Hall of
GP Murray was a model contributor to our 2004 Canadian Federal
With his awesome accuracy, Nikita Nanos of SES Research blew away
the other pollsters in the wrap-up series of finishing polls at the
end of the 2006 Federal Election campaign. It is said that the
late stage nuances are crucial to good Riding Projection conversions
in the final count ... to catch moves to second choice and discovery
of where to the Undecided camp are breaking off.
At TrendLines, our intuition is that
there is a "return to the mean" phenom in play in those final days
(or even when standing in the ballot box) that assists in explaining
some major variances we have seen as the Vote is tallied.
Meanwhile, at LISPOP, Barry Kay's
studies confirm the accuracy of Riding Projections during the
Campaigns. One of his contributions was to have us compare
Advance Poll results (easily available from Elections Offices) with
the Projections as they were on those dates. Kay goes on to
confirm that when final votes are tallied and converted, they
confirm the methodology.
The art of Projections seems to be in
the ability to predict any change that may occur in those last 72
hours in the absence of poll data. The question arises:
Does the last trend continue or do folks pull back to a certain
comfort level? Because it may be the latter, some Projection
models do not put alotta weight on what may be developing and thus
revealed in those late days...
It is for this reason that the
TrendLines Election Day targets are not tracking "up" in harmony
with the recent Riding Projections that are inferring a Liberal
Party win in the mid to high 60's ... just as we stayed in the "62"
range when there was a flurry of Minority Gov't predictions early in
With more models data, it is confirmed today that the PC Party is at
its lowest support level (from a Riding Projection perspective)
since March 2005.
With all 7 Riding Projection Models digesting post-Debate sentiment
via canvassing and/or the new Angus Reid & SES surveys, their
consensus thus far is that there was a net loss of three (Seats)
from the PC's camp to the Liberals. The 3-5 poll rolling avg's
by most models shields the actual outcome.
TrendLines applauds Nikita Nanos of SES Research for again
publishing their Ontario poll today with the inclusion of a Margin
of Error (MoE) based on the Decided voters. He went the extra
mile even though the Undecided factor was a respectable 14%.
By doing so, SES joins with us in shaming the pollsters hiding poor
quality control and methodology via MoE's that disguise a high
Undecided component and base the MoE on "total" respondents ... not
Note that the seven Seat Projection Models that we track have all
purged pre-September polling data.
The seven Riding Projection Models are currently processing only 18
days of polling data! All but a couple of days of August have
been purged. This allows us to introduce for the first time
today a writ-length trendline. It is significant in that
it illustrates trend courses that are presently opposite of the post
2003 era (which are the basis of the TrendLines Election Day
Results of the fifth
of the seven Riding Projection Models to digest last week's tighter
polls brings down our target for the Liberal Party a notch.
Our model foresees a high/low range for each Party's finish on
Election Day based on their performance in past and present blended
Riding Projections (as many as seven recognized Models). As of
today, this low number for the Liberal Party is 54 Seats.
Thus, TrendLines Research declares a Liberal Majority is
inevitable at this stage of the Campaign!
Debate takes on more significance with recent polling.
We know that one third
of the populace makes their vote decision based on Leadership
qualities, another third on Party platform/ideology and a third are
influenced by the preferred local candidate. One revelation in
the Angus poll was that 54% favour Tory as Premier. But it
also confirmed that most folks are agin faith based education
funding ... the major issue. We seem to see a situation
developing where the Leadership factor is rising to the surface and
affecting sentiment numbers.
confrontations in the media, the chance at comparison seems to be
going in Tory's favour. This will tick off most of the pundits
that seem by their writings to have an open disgust for Tory.
That being said, on top of the 2% Angus Reid poll & 4% Environics
poll, yesterday Ipsos (Sept 4-13) confirmed the trend with their
revelation of only a 3% lead for the Liberals. Folks, we may
have the signals of a contest!
Well, the Angus Reid
poll (Sept 7-8) certainly spiced things up to end this week.
With its result that the PC's are within 2% of the Liberals, at
least one Model projects a Tory Minority based on that one survey
alone. Is it a rogue poll or is the Tory Blue Machine finally
making an appearance?
Later surveys will confirm the trend that both it and Environics
imply. The Environics (Sept 6-9) survey shows the Liberals
with only a 4% lead; but it was a only a 501-voter poll with a 4.4%
Margin of Error amid a 21% Undecided factor. In other words,
only 396 callers were Decided.
This brings to issue the larger question of integrity of data,
ethics and methodology. Angus Reid & Environics seem to
belong to a camp of pollsters that are resistant to base their
Margin of Error (MoE) on "Decided Voters" rather than the number of
folks called. With respect, imho the Angus Reid's 28%
Undecided Rate should be interpreted as a 4% MOE ... not the 3.6%
that it boasts. Only 605 respondents were Decided participants yet
the Angus Reid MOE is based on 725 surveys. Pollsters that
hide poor methodology and/or quality of service via an archaic MoE
calculation are being less than truthful about their accuracy.
To the extreme, there is Angus Reid's protégé Donna Larsen of
DataPath Systems publishing political polls with Undecided
components as high as 31%, 37%, 48%, 49% & 72% ... all with
respectable looking MoE's however 'cuz that calculation is based on
the gross number of respondents. Come on boys and girls, let's
all use the "net figure" in 2008. Be brave. Be ahead of
the curve. Use a footnote that your MoE is based on the
Decided component only. It's time for the polling industry to
review this dated metric and not hide potential inaccuracy via the
wiggle room allowed by flawed MoE latitudes. OK, rant over!
Tonie Chaltas's Hill &
Knowlton Predictor was added as our 7th model today.
TrendLines already incorporates her studies in our Canadian & Quebec
Riding Projections. Merging her data over the past six months
had only minor influence on our chart (gain of 1 for NDP from
Liberal August tally). Pre mid-August data has been purged
from all the models.
Sept 12: We're introducing
a higher resolution writ period chart today that tracks the AVG of 6
analysts' conversions of latest opinion polls to likely Riding wins
for each Political Party. It also tracks the TrendLines
of our prediction (extrapolation) of how many MPPs that the leading
Party (currently Liberals) should attain looking forward to Election
Day on Oct 10th. It reflects that
since June 4th, TrendLines Research
has been predicting a Liberal Party Majority with 59-64 MPP's.
A 5-model analysis of new September figures confirms an advancing
With the first September poll figures available, the purging of June
& July data by all the models is facilitated. A possible
closing of the gap could be in progress.
Sept 6: The Leaders
Debate has been announced for Thursday Sept 20th;
6:30pm on CPAC et al. 20 days prior to balloting, it won't
appear to change the order of the standings but could affect the
Sept 5: With a major
revision of Barry Kay's LISPOP Grid Model, our chart has been
amended to more accurately reflect post-2003 sentiment as revealed
in over 60 recognized polls. The net effect has been higher
MPP counts for the Liberal Party & NDP at the expense of the PC
Sept 4: The addition of
two more Seat Projection Models over the Labour Day Weekend
clarifies the most recent divergence that surfaced in late July.
And a flurry of updated polls to analyze allows all models to purge
August - Late in 2005, TrendLines
Research picked up a change in momentum that allowed us to commence
published predictions of a Federal Conservative Minority
starting Nov 30th ... seven
weeks before Election Day; and in spite of the fact that the Liberal
Party was ahead in almost all polls from May to Christmas!
This same technique sensed what appeared as fatal softening of
Ontario PC support in early June 2007; and a Tory victory projection
Since June 4th, TrendLines has been
predicting a Liberal Party Majority with 59-64 MPP's.
July - There have been a dozen lead
changes since Autumn 2003. But with a mere 60 days 'til ballot
day, time is running out for a PC challenge. While this
ongoing volatility in sentiment should give the PC's a glimmer of
encouragement, the NDP are indeed mired.
June - Will strategic voting come
into play? As the electorate begin to grasp that this is only
a two-horse race, the prospects of a couple of scenarios that could
influence: (a) Core support leaves the NDP in droves to their
second choice, or (b) Dippers become encouraged that they can
drive the Agenda as the Balance of Power
in an upcoming Minority Gov't ...