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2011 Election Campaign Blog:
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Welcome to coverage of our 4th Canadian General Election.
I am humbled realizing all discussion in Canada surrounding an
Opposition Coalition commenced with my
Sept
1st 2008 blog posting.
My 2008 Election Campaign charts
tracked the Coalition tally each day ... leading to this topic being
included in the 2008 Leaders' English Debate. With this background,
it may seem quite a departure to find that I do not expect that
same prospect to come to fruition at the conclusion of this Writ.
Observing the pleas & body language of Jack Layton in the final days
and hours of the last Parliamentary session, I came to the
conclusion on March 25th that should PM Harper fall short
of Majority, it is very probable the Tories will form an Accord or
Coalition with the NDP prior to the Throne Speech. This
remains my position today. Freddy Hutter, Trendlines Research
The Trendlines Research multi-model
Riding Projection has been
Canada's most accurate forecast tool
measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections.
Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available
seat projections from 14 international modelers. One of the models
included is our own proprietary conversion, itself the most
accurate of 17 efforts in the 2008 Election. |
May 2 2011:
Final 14-model avg infers Harper shy
6 MPs for Majority
The final tally from the 14 international Riding Projections reveals
Jack Layton's momentum
arising from the Leaders' Debates continued thru the final weekend.
By Sunday nite the NDP had gained 59 potential MPs, at the expense of 35 Liberals & 24 BQ, as well as
capturing back 23%
of national Green support.
There have been two surprises in this
campaign. As in August 2008, Conservatives got a huge poll
bump via pre-Writ negative Ignatieff advertising ... gaining 24
potential ridings (compared to 53 agin Dion). Last time, the
Liberals instantly got back 37 as soon as the Opposition began their
own ads. This time the Grits wrestled back only 8! Hmmm.
Quebec voters have had a tendency towards "piling on", that
is, upon seeing Majorities forming, they will switch support to the
winning Party to attain Cabinet Members (& $) ... didn't happen this
time around.
May Second can't come fast enuf for the
governing Conservatives considering soon-to-surface
economic issues. Yesterday's StatCan February data release
re-confirms the
Trendlines Recession Indicator forecast of Q1 economic growth
rate being 6.3%. This excellent news will be short-lived.
The quarter represented the end of stimulus cheques and TRI projects
Q2 is on a much reduced 2.6% pace. Just seven days Voting Day, StatCan will remind
Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8%
quagmire ... much above the pre-Recession Rate of 5.3%. Our
Barrel Meter
is forecasting Crude Oil could peak @ $140/barrel this Summer. This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our
Gas
Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or stymied from
rebound) while Crude Price exceeds
$90/barrel. The
Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the
warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions whilst oil
breaches $108/barrel.
After weathering these headwinds, I am certain Bank of
Canada is preparing to normalize interest rates with a
1.5% bump ... an action sure to burst Canada's
$82,000 Housing Bubble.
This won't be pretty.
The Trendlines
Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of
recognized international seat
projections each month since October 2004. One is
our very own contribution ... itself the
most accurate
of Canada's
2008 Election. Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model
indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 149 Ridings, followed by:
77 NDP, 43 Liberals, 37 BQ & 2 Indept's.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other current models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 8 national polls conducted April25-May1
by 14 international projection models. It reveals
the
governing Conservative Party has a lead in 148 Seats, followed by:
90 NDP, 48 Liberals, 21 Bloc & 1 Indep't.
Looking forward, our momentum indicator overlay projects the Tories will be
6 MPs shy (149) of a
Majority on Election Day,
followed by: 95 NDP, 43
Liberals, 20
BQ & 1 Indep't.
May 1 2011:
Harper Still 7 Shy after Final Weekend
Sentiment for tomorrow's vote reveals momentum
arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (58 MP
gain) at the expense of 34 Liberals & 24 BQ, as well as
capturing back 21%
of national Green support.
There have been two surprises in this
campaign. As in August 2008, Conservatives got a huge poll
bump via pre-Writ negative Ignatieff advertising ... gaining 24
potential ridings (compared to 53 agin Dion). Last time, the
Liberals instantly got back 37 as soon as the Opposition began their
own ads. This time the Grits wrestled back only 8! Hmmm.
Quebec voters have had a tendency towards "piling on", that
is, upon seeing Majorities forming, they will switch support to the
winning Party to attain Cabinet Members (& $) ... didn't happen this
time around.
May Second can't come fast enuf for the
governing Conservatives considering soon-to-surface
economic issues. Yesterday's StatCan February data release
re-confirms the
Trendlines Recession Indicator forecast of Q1 economic growth
rate being 6.3%. This excellent news will be short-lived.
The quarter represented the end of stimulus cheques and TRI projects
Q2 is on a much reduced 2.6% pace. Just seven days Voting Day, StatCan will remind
Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8%
quagmire ... much above the pre-Recession Rate of 5.3%. Our
Barrel Meter
is forecasting Crude Oil could peak @ $140/barrel this Summer. This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our
Gas
Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or stymied from
rebound) while Crude Price exceeds
$90/barrel. The
Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the
warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions whilst oil
breaches $108/barrel.
After weathering these headwinds, I am certain Bank of
Canada is preparing to normalize interest rates with a
1.5% bump ... an action sure to burst Canada's
$82,000 Housing Bubble.
This won't be pretty.
The Trendlines
Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of
recognized international seat
projections each month since October 2004. One is
our very own contribution ... itself the
most accurate
of Canada's
2008 Election. Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model
indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 149 Ridings, followed by:
77 NDP, 44 Liberals, 37 BQ & 1 Indep't.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other current models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 7 national polls conducted April25-May1
by 14 international projection models. It reveals
the
governing Conservative Party has a lead in 148 Seats, followed by:
89 NDP, 49 Liberals, 21 Bloc & 1 Indep't.
Looking forward, our momentum indicator overlay projects the Tories will be
7 MPs shy (148) of a
Majority on Election Day,
followed by: 91 NDP, 46
Liberals, 22
BQ & 1 Indep't.
April 30 2011:
Layton Still Rising ... Harper 7 Shy with 2 days Campaigning to
go
Sentiment two days out from the May 2nd Vote reveals momentum
arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (50 MP
gain) at the expense of 26 Liberals & 24 BQ, as well as trimming 2%
off national Green sentiment.
May Second can't come fast enuf for
the governing Conservatives considering soon-to-surface economic
issues. Yesterday's StatCan February data release re-confirms
the
Trendlines Recession Indicator
forecast of Q1 economic growth rate being 6.3%. This excellent
news will be short-lived. The quarter represented the end of
stimulus cheques and TRI projects Q2 is on a much reduced 2.6% pace.
Just seven days Voting Day, StatCan will remind Canadians
Unemployment remains in a 7.8% quagmire ... much above the
pre-Recession Rate of 5.3%. Our
Barrel Meter
is forecasting Crude Oil could peak @ $140/barrel this Summer.
This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our
Gas Pump infers USA New
Car Sales are decimated (or stymied from rebound) while Crude Price
exceeds $90/barrel. The
Barrel Meter
bears further bad news with the warning of a new round of G-20
Recessions whilst oil breaches $108/barrel. After weathering
these headwinds, I am certain Bank of Canada is preparing to
normalize interest rates with a 1.5% bump ... an action sure to
burst Canada's
$82,000 Housing Bubble.
This won't be pretty.
The Trendlines Research multi-model
Riding Projection has charted the average of recognized
international seat projections each month since October 2004.
One is our very own contribution ... itself the
most accurate
of Canada's 2008 Election.
Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead
today in 149 Ridings, followed by: 72 NDP, 49 Liberals, 36 BQ
& 2 Indept's.
When our own numbers
are blended with the other current models for a broader analysis,
the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 6 national polls conducted April 25-29 by 14
international projection models. It reveals the
governing Conservative Party has a lead in 147 Seats, followed by:
81 NDP, 57 Liberals, 22 Bloc & 1 Indep't. Looking forward, our
momentum indicator overlay projects the Tories will be 7 MPs shy
(148) of a Majority on Election Day,
followed by: 92 NDP, 50
Liberals, 17 BQ & 1 Indep't.
April 28 2011:
NDP
Momentum Continues ... Harper 8 Shy with 5 days to go
Sentiment five days out from the May 2nd Vote reveals momentum
arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (43 MP
gain) at the expense of the Liberals (22 seats), BQ (19), CPC (2) as well as trimming 1%
off Green sentiment.
May Second can't come fast enuf for the
governing Conservatives considering soon-to-surface
economic issues. Last Tuesday's figures from the
Trendlines Recession Indicator suggest StatCan will announce Q1 GDP
rose from 3.3% to 6.3% ... only three days prior to voting day.
But seven days after that excellent news, StatCan will remind
Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8%
quagmire. Our
Barrel Meter
is forecasting Crude Price could be $140/barrel by
the Summer. This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our
Gas
Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or stymied from
rebound) while Crude Price exceeds
$90/barrel. The
Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the
warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions whilst oil
breaches $108/barrel.
These economic headwinds will probably see Q2 retreat to 2.2% GDP.
We are certain Bank of
Canada is preparing to raise interest rates about
1.5% to get them back to normal ... an action sure to burst Canada's
$82,000 Housing Bubble.
The Trendlines
Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of
recognized international seat
projections each month since October 2004. One is
our very own conversion ... itself the
most accurate
in Canada's
2008 Election. Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model
indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 150 Ridings, followed by:
99 NDP, 56 Liberals,
2 Indept's & 1 BQ.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other current models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 4 national polls conducted April 25-27
by 14 international projection models. It reveals
the
governing Conservative Party has a lead in 146 Seats, followed by:
74 NDP, 61 Liberals, 26 Bloc & 1 Indep't.
Finally, our momentum indicator overlay projects the Tories will be
8 MPs shy (147) of a
Majority on Election Day,
followed by: 92 NDP, 49
Liberals, 19
BQ & 1 Indep't.
April 27 2011:
NDP
has Momentum
... Harper 7 Shy with 6 days to go
ElectionCanada reports weekend advance polls beat previous
turnouts by 35%.
Sentiment six days out from the May 2nd Vote reveals momentum
arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (32 MP gain)
at the expense of the
Liberals (19 seats), BQ (12), CPC (1) as well as trimming over 1%
off Green sentiment. This episode reminds of the post-debate
surge by UK's Nick Clegg last year - but the LibDems fizzled just
days before folks made it
to the ballot box.
May Second can't come fast enuf for the
governing Conservatives considering soon-to-surface
economic issues. Last Tuesday's figures from the
Trendlines Recession Indicator suggest StatCan will announce Q1 GDP
rose from 3.3% to 6.3% ... only three days prior to voting day.
But seven days after that excellent news, StatCan will remind
Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8%
quagmire. Our
Barrel Meter
is forecasting Crude Price could be $140/barrel by
the Summer. This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our
Gas
Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or stymied from
rebound) while Crude Price exceeds
$90/barrel. The
Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the
warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions whilst oil
breaches $108/barrel.
These economic headwinds will probably see Q2 retreat to 2.2% GDP.
We are certain Bank of
Canada is preparing to raise interest rates about
1.5% to get them back to normal ... an action sure to burst Canada's
$82,000 Housing Bubble.
So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the
horizon?
The Trendlines
Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of
recognized international seat
projections each month since October 2004. One of these models is
our own conversion ... it being
the most accurate
of 17 in Canada's
2008 Election. Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model
indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 147 Ridings, followed by:
77 Liberals,
41 BQ, 41 NDP &
2 Indept's.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 7 national polls conducted April 14-26
by 14 international projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party has a lead in 147 Seats, the Liberals
in 64. The NDP & Bloc sit at 63 & 33 potential Ridings respectively,
plus one Indep't.
Finally, our momentum indicator overlay projects the Tories will be
7 MPs shy (148) of a
Majority on Election Day,
followed by: 85 NDP, 50
Liberals, 24
BQ & 1 Indep't.
April 26:
Momentum with Layton ... Harper 8 Shy with 8 days to go
ElectionCanada reports weekend advance polls beat previous
turnouts by 30% - the electorate is certainly engaged!
Sentiment eight days out from the May 2nd Vote reveals momentum
arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (22 MP gain)
mostly at the expense of the
Greens, BQ,
Liberals & CPC. This episode reminds of the post-debate
surge by UK's Clegg last year - but he fizzled before folks made it
to the ballot box.
May Second can't come fast enuf for the
governing Party considering soon-to-surface
economic issues. Tuesday's figures from the
Trendlines Recession Indicator suggest StatCan will announce Q1 GDP
rose from 3.3% to 6.3% ... only three days prior to voting day.
But then seven days after that excellent news, StatCan will remind
Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8%
quagmire. Our
Barrel Meter
is forecasting Crude Price could be $140/barrel by
the Summer. This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our
Gas
Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or stymied from
rebound) while Crude Price exceeds
$90/barrel. The
Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the
warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions whilst oil
breaches $108/barrel.
Should the economy survive those headwinds, we are certain Bank of
Canada is preparing to raise interest rates about
1.5% to get them back to normal ... an action sure to burst Canada's
$82,000 Housing Bubble.
So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the
horizon?
The Trendlines
Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of
recognized international seat
projections each month since October 2004. One of these models is
our own conversion ... it being
the most accurate
of 17 in Canada's
2008 Election. Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model
indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 141 Ridings, followed by: 82 Liberals,
42 BQ, 41 NDP &
2 Indept's.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 9 national polls conducted April 12-24
by 14 international projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party has a lead in 147 Seats, the Liberals
in 70. The NDP & Bloc sit at 53 & 37 potential Ridings respectively,
plus one Indep't.
Finally, our momentum indicator overlay projects the Tories will be
8 MPs shy (147) of a
Majority on Election Day,
followed by: 78 NDP, 55
Liberals, 27
BQ & 1 Indep't.
April 22 2011:
New
Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition ... with 12 days to go
Momentum arising from the Leaders' Debates
continues to favour the NDP (11 MP gain) at the sentiment expense of the
Greens, BQ,
Liberals & CPC. Should this surprising trend continue, the Tories
will fail to attain Majority status & Jack Layton becomes the Leader of
Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.
May 2nd can't come fast enuf for the
governing Party considering soon-to-surface
economic issues. Tuesday's figures from the
Trendlines Recession Indicator suggest StatCan will announce Q1 GDP
rose from 3.3% to 6.3% ... only three days prior to voting day.
But then seven days after that excellent news, StatCan will remind
Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8%
quagmire. Our
Barrel Meter
is forecasting Avg Crude Price could be $140/barrel by
July. This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our
Gas
Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or can stymie a
rebound) while Crude Price exceeds
$90/barrel. The
Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the
warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions while oil
breaches $108/barrel.
Should the economy survive those headwinds, we are certain Bank of
Canada is preparing to raise interest rates about
1.5% to get them back to normal ... an action sure to burst Canada's
$82,000 Housing Bubble.
So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the
horizon?
Since Oct/2004 the Trendlines
Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of
recognized international seat
projections. One of these models is
our own conversion ... it being
the most accurate
of 17 in Canada's
2008 Election. Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper
has a lead today in 138 Ridings, followed by: 86 Liberals, 39 NDP, 43 BQ &
2 Indept's.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 9 national polls conducted April 12-20
by 13 international projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party has a lead in 145 Seats, the Liberals
in 77. The Bloc & NDP sit at 43 & 42 potential Ridings respectively,
plus one Indep't.
Finally, our momentum indicator projects the Tories will be 17 MPs shy (138) of a
Majority on Election Day,
followed by: 74 NDP, 62 Liberals,
33
BQ & 1 Indep't.
April 20 2011:
Tories 24
seats shy of Majority with 2 weeks to go
Momentum arising from the Leaders' Debates
continues to favour the NDP (8 MP gain) at the expense of the CPC &
Liberals. Should this surprising trend continue, the Tories
will fail to gain a Majority and Jack Layton becomes the Leader of
Her Majesty's Official Opposition.
May 2nd can't come soon enuf for the
governing Party on the
economic front. Yesterday's figures from the
Trendlines Recession Indicator suggests StatCan will announce Q1 GDP
rose from 3.3% to 6.3% ... only three days prior to voting day,
But then, seven days after that excellent news, StatCan will remind
Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8%
quagmire. Our
Barrel
Meter's new projection says Crude Price could be $140/barrel by
July. This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our Gas
Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated while Crude Price exceeds
$90/barrel. The Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the
warning that a new round of G-20 Recessions will start upon oil
breaching $108/barrel.
Should the economy survive those headwinds, we are certain Bank of
Canada is preparing to raise interest rates about
1.5% to get them back to normal ... and this action will indeed burst Canada's
$82,000 Housing Bubble.
So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the
horizon?
The Trendlines Research multi-model
Riding Projection has been
Canada's most accurate forecast tool
measured over the last four major (Federal & Ontario) elections. Each
month, it charts the average of currently available seat
projections from across Canada. One of the models included is
our own conversion - and it was
the most accurate in the
2008 Federal Election. Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper
has a lead today in 137 Ridings, followed by: 86 Liberals, 39 NDP, 45 BQ &
0 Indept's.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 8 national polls conducted April 12-18
by 13 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party has a lead in 145 Seats, the Liberals
in 79. The Bloc & NDP sit at 46 & 38 potential Ridings respectively.
Our
momentum indicator projects the Tories will be 24 MPs shy (131) of a
Majority on Election Day,
followed by: 65 Liberals, 69 NDP, 43
BQ & 0 Indept's.
April 16 2011:
Tories 2 seats shy of Majority with under 3 weeks to go
In the first days coming out
of the Leaders' Debates, Jack Layton has snatched three ridings from
the Michael Ignatieff. At this juncture in the campaign, no
Party has gained or lost more than eight seats.
May 2nd can't come soon enuf for the
governing Party on the
economic front. Three days prior to voting day, StatCan will announce Q1 GDP
fell from 3.3% to 2.3% (not the 5.2% predicted by OECD).
Four days later StatCan will reveal if Unemployment remains in the 7.8%
quagmire. Oil could be
$140/barrel by
July. Not so good when New Car Sales are decimated when
crude exceeds
$90/barrel and a new round of G-20 Recessions starts over $108/barrel.
Should the economy survive those headwinds, interest rates will rise about
1.5% to get back to normal ... and help burst Canada's
$82,000 Housing Bubble.
So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the
horizon?
The Trendlines Research multi-model
Riding Projection has been
Canada's most accurate forecast tool
measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections. Each
month, it charts the average of currently available seat
projections from across Canada. One of the models included is
our own conversion - it was
the most accurate in the
2008 Autumn Election. Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a
lead today in 157 Ridings, followed by: 74 Liberals, 32 NDP, 43 BQ &
2 Indept's.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 7 national polls conducted Mar31-Apr14
by 13 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party has a lead in 147 Seats today, the Liberals
in 80. The Bloc & NDP exit the Leaders' Debates with
46 & 34 potential Ridings respectively.
Results include 1 Indep't. Our long-term
momentum indicator projects the Tories will be two MPs short (153) of a
Majority on Election Day,
followed by: 77 Liberals, 31 NDP, 46 BQ &
1 Indept.
April 15 2011: Harper only 1 Seat Shy of Majority
with under 3-weeks to go
Halfway thru the campaign
Canadians still await any real coverage of Election issues. As
in 2008, most air time thus far has been devoted to disgusting
tabloid-style "journalism". No in-depth thoughtful analysis
... just the same old "gotcha politics" that turned off voters a
decade ago. NPR/PBS receive only $430 million from the US
Gov't. So why do our taxpayers fork out $1.8 billion for CBC?
Just saying...
May 2nd can't come soon enuf on the
economic front. Three days prior StatCan will announce Q1 GDP
fell from 3.3% to 2.3% (not the 5.2% predicted by OECD).
Four days later they'll reveal if Unemployment remains in the 7.8%
quagmire. Oil could be
$140/barrel by July. Not so good when New Car Sales are
decimated @ $90/barrel and a new round of G-20 Recessions starts @
$108. Then if we make it thru all that, interest rates will
rise about 1.5% to get back to normal ... and help burst Canada's
$82,000 Housing Bubble.
So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the
horizon?
The Trendlines Research multi-model
Riding Projection has been
Canada's most accurate forecast tool,
measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections. Each
month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat
projections from across Canada. One of the models included is
our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the
2008 Autumn Election. This (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a
lead today in 159 Ridings, followed by: 75 Liberals, 30 NDP, 42 BQ &
2 Indept's.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 7 national polls conducted Mar31-Apr11
by 13 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party has a lead in 148 Seats today, the Liberals
in 83. The Bloc & NDP went into the Leaders' Debates with
46 & 31 potential Ridings respectively.
Our long-term
momentum indicator projects the Tories will be one MP short of a
Majority on Elections Day.
April 6 2011: Harper only 1 Seat Shy of Majority
with under 5-weeks to go
The lamestream media is bewildered as
to why the CPC has not been capitalizing on this week's awesome
forecast by the OECD of 5.2% Q1 Canadian GDP. Simple:
the OECD is wrong! As revealed by the Trendlines Recession
Indicator fifteen days ago, Q1 was more likely only 2.2% (following
3.3% in Q4). The StatCan Q1 announcement will come a mere
three days prior to Election Day. Should the Tories make a big
deal of "5.2%" and it is found Real GDP actually fell ... the
consequences on credibility could be tragic on that final campaign
weekend. Granted we foresee 4.6% in Q2, but that announcement
will come far too late. In a couple of days StatCan will also
reveal if Unemployment remains in the 7.8% quagmire.
Crude oil has been in breach of
$90/barrel for ten weeks. For a year we've warned that this
event would cause a collapse of North American New Vehicle Sales.
Similarly, oil may breach the $109/barrel threshold this week and
inspire a new round of G-20 Recessions. We will update TRI on
April 19th - so stay tuned - but it may be just as well macro
economics do not become a central issue. The horizon is
somewhat bleak and resolution of geo-political events in Libya will
not turn petroleum prices around. Failure of Congress and the
Obama Administration to address their structural deficits means
USDollar Debasement has become a $22/barrel component of current
pricing.
Bank of Canada raised
interest rates too quickly ... as we warned they would (in March
2010).
CMHC continues to feed the real estate bubble with its promotion of
5% down payments despite our warnings to pare back to 10% (over a year
ago). Bad housing policy helped create Canada's
$82,000 Housing Bubble
and the imminent correction will be a head wind. Rising
interest rates and oil prices are founding an export killing
par-plus Loonie that undermines job creation. The Tories will
want this Election over before a plethora of bad news hits.
The Trendlines Research composite
Riding Projection has been
Canada's most accurate forecast tool,
measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections. Each
month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat
projections from across Canada. One of the models included is
our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the
2008 Autumn Election. This model indicates PM Harper has a
lead in 155 Ridings, followed by: 76 Liberals, 31 NDP, 45 BQ &
1 Indep't.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 8 national polls conducted Mar14-Apr3
by 12 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party has a lead in 150 Seats ...
down 1 from thirty days prior. The Liberal Party starts
with 75 Members (same). The Bloc & NDP begin the Spring campaign with 50 & 33 Ridings respectively.
Our long-term
momentum indicator is favouring the Tories to gain 4 additional
seats for a total of 154 by Election Day.
March 25 2011: Opposition Parties Force
early May
General Election
|
Welcome to coverage of our fourth Canadian General
Election. We are humbled that all discussion in
Canada surrounding an Opposition Coalition commenced
with our
Sept
1st 2008 blog posting. Our 2008 Election Campaign charts
tracked the Coalition tally each day ... leading to this topic being
included in the 2008 Leaders' English Debate. With this background,
it may seem quite a departure to find that we do not expect that
same prospect to come to fruition at the conclusion of this Writ. Caveat the unforeseen,
the Conservative Party will gain MPs in this Election. On
March 25th, this led me to forecast that should PM Harper fall short
of Majority, it is very probable the Tories will form an Accord or
Coalition with the NDP prior to the Throne Speech. This
remains our position today.
The Trendlines Research composite
Riding Projection has been
Canada's most accurate forecast tool,
measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections.
Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available
seat projections from across Canada. One of the models
included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most
accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election. |
With the Conservative Party at the peak of its post-2008 momentum,
the combined Opposition Parties have voted Non-Confidence to force
an early May General Election. Based on the February polling
below, our October 2012 long-term indicator targets have been
adjusted to reflect a Spring Writ. At this time, Trendlines
Research is projecting a CPC Majority of 155 MPs. The Liberal
Party would garner 76 seats on Election Day, followed by 46 BQ, 30
NDP & 1 Indep't. This is our 4th Federal campaign. Let the Games begin...
Post 2008-Election Blog:
March 16 2011:
CBC Helps Liberal
Party Attain 5-Yr Low
Several days before PM Harper dropped the 2008 Writ, Trendlines
Research warned it was a dangerous action that would yield Canada's
first Coalition Gov't, it being highly improbable for him to win a
Majority. In the end, our prediction was stymied by Dion's
decision to resign ... but the forecast came verrry close to
fruition. Today, the Tories appear to be near Majority
territory, but as happened in Sept/2008, the Conservative sentiment
will again plummet upon the commencement of Grit & Dipper
advertising. Events by the end of March will reveal whether
Ignatieff is on a suicide mission ... or en route to becoming the
Coalition Gov't Leader.
Next week's events are the climax of
a blatant CBC strategy to get in bed with Liberal Party of Canada
albeit the latter may perhaps have been reluctant soul mates.
CBC-TV has strived to become the north-of-60 counterpart of MSNBC -
the on air voice of the Progressives (socialist wing of the USA
Democratic Party) - an affiliation which has all but bankrupted the
network ... along with copycat CNN. The wrong-minded tactic
has lost the two cable new channels millions of viewers and the top
rated 13 programs to Fox-TV. Similarly, CBC is now faced with
a $1.8 billion operating deficit as advertisers vanish. In
short, the cost of this leftist agenda is being carried entirely by
Canadian taxpayers. At the start of CBC campaign in Autumn
2009 the Grits had 111 seats in the above projection...
Today's chart illustrates the Grits
would commence a potential campaign with a 2-seat deficit from the
2008 Election. This may reflect
"a recovery of the economic Recovery". Tory fortunes no doubt
suffered somewhat as the GDP growth rate collapsed (6.2% to 1.8%)
last year. But StatCan says there was a rebound to 3.3% in Q4
and the
Trendlines Recession Indicator infers a 3.9% Q2 pace albeit the good news is clouded by
an
Unemployment Rate stuck in a 7.8% quagmire.
Bank of Canada raised
interest rates too quickly ... as we warned they would (in March
2010).
CMHC continues to feed the real estate bubble with its promotion of
5% down payments despite our warnings to pare back to 10% (over a year
ago). Bad housing policy helped create Canada's
$71,000 Housing Bubble.
The correction will be a de facto
assault on family net worth - hardly a remedy for consumer confidence
building. And with interest rates rising ... an export killing
par-plus Loonie undermines job creation. Crude Oil has been in breach
of $90/barrel for six weeks, so the auto sector and its exports to the USA
are in serious jeopardy. Leadership must be
questioned when all this was indeed foretold.
In the end, there is
enuf bad news floating out there to make this a volatile environment for the Conservatives to
attempt a run for the elusive Majority ... 'cuz should they fail -
they would be staring down a Coalition future.
The TrendLines Research composite
Riding Projection has been
Canada's most accurate forecast tool,
measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections. Each
month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat
projections from across Canada. One of the models included is
our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the
2008 Autumn Election. This model indicates PM Harper would
have began a hypothetical March 1st election campaign with a lead in
154 Ridings, followed by: 77 Liberals, 26 NDP, 49 BQ & 2 Indept's.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
We are pleased to advise the seat projection of Bryan Breguet has
been blended into the composite study. Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 6 national polls conducted Feb2-27 2010
by 7 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early March
election campaign with a lead in 151 Seats ...
up 13 from thirty days prior. The Liberal Party would start
with 75 Members (down 15). The Bloc & NDP would have started an
early early Spring campaign with 51 & 30 Ridings respectively. This is the
tenth consecutive month where our long term
momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits)
to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in
October 2012 ... leading in 127 Ridings upon the dropping of that
potential writ.
Feb 17 2011:
Negative Ads Back:
Priming the Pump or Scaring Away the Coalition?
In the days before to calling the 2008 Election the Conservative
Party ran a series of anti-Ignatieff TV ads prior to the
"sweater-vest" series. The strategy propelled the CPC seat
projection
from 128 (Aug31) to 181 (Sept7),
but upon commencement of the Coalition ads, CPC sentiment quickly
evaporated to 144 (Sept16). Harper eventually won with 143
MPs. As we see the same tactic playing out again, we have to
wonder whether the purpose is to lay the groundwork for a
post-Budget Writ ... or just to scare away the Coalition from a
Confidence vote?
Today's chart, illustrating the Grits
would commence a potential campaign with a 13-seat lead (over 2008), may
still reflect
some voter dissatisfaction with Government efforts to maintain what was
once a
robust economic recovery. But while StatCan is currently reporting
an annualized GDP of 1.4% for November, the
Trendlines Recession Indicator infers the figure is dramatically understated.
Yesterday's TRI release infers Canada has indeed averted the dreaded
double-dip and early data suggests February
growth has rebound to a 2.8% pace, with Q2 presently projected @
3.8%. But this perhaps good news is clouded by the
Unemployment Rate stuck in a 7.8% quagmire. In short, there is
enuf bad news floating out there to make this a volatile environment for the Conservatives to
attempt a run for the elusive Majority ... 'cuz should they fail -
they would be staring down a Coalition future.
Everything seems to be working
against PM Harper. Bank of Canada had raised
interest rates too quickly ... as we warned they would (in March
2010).
CMHC continues to feed the real estate bubble with its promotion of
5% down payments despite our warnings to pare back to 10% (a year
ago). Bad housing policy helped create Canada's
$78,000 Housing Bubble. The
assault on net worth is hardly a remedy for consumer confidence
building. And with interest rates rising ... an export killing
par-plus Loonie undermines job creation. If oil breaches the
its present $90/barrel, the auto sector and its exports to the USA
are in serious jeopardy. The "recovery" of the Recovery could
be short-lived. Leadership must be
questioned when all this was indeed foretold.
The TrendLines Research composite
Riding Projection has been
Canada's most accurate forecast tool,
measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections. Each
month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat
projections from across Canada. One of the models included is
our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the
2008 Autumn Election. This model indicates PM Harper would
have began a hypothetical February 2nd election campaign with a lead
in 138 Ridings, followed by: 93
Liberals, 30 NDP, 45 BQ & 2 Indept's.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 7 national polls conducted Jan9-Feb2 2010
by 5 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early February
election campaign with a lead in 138 Seats ...
down 2 from thirty days prior. The Liberal Party would start
with 90 Members (up 1). The Bloc & NDP would have started an
early mid-Winter campaign with 51 &
29 Ridings respectively. This is the ninth consecutive month where our long term
momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits)
to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in
October 2012 ... leading in 122 Ridings upon the dropping of that
potential writ.
Jan 27 2011 ~
CBC Pacifists,
Homosexuals & Socialists Ease the Rhetoric ... and Conservatives
Gain
Anti-American programming continued ad nauseum at the
national network in December, but in fear of Sun Media inevitable
capture of market share, there has been a marked easing of left
leaning rhetoric by on-air pacifists, homosexuals & socialists at
CBC-TV. This buoyed sentiment for the Conservatives ... at the
expense of the Coalition. A "Fox-North" bump could very
well propel the Tories into Majority territory this Spring.
Today's chart, illustrating the Grits
would commence a potential campaign with a 12-seat lead (over 2008), may
still reflect
some voter dissatisfaction with Government efforts to maintain what was
once a
robust economic recovery. But while StatCan is currently reporting
an annualized GDP of 1.3% for October, the
Trendlines Recession Indicator infers the figure is understated,
Canada has averted a double-dip and the probable January
growth has rebound to a 3.1% pace, with Q2 presently projected @
3.8%. But this perhaps good news is clouded by the
Unemployment Rate stuck in a 7.6% quagmire. In short, there is
enuf bad news floating out there to make this a volatile environment for the Conservatives to
attempt a run for the elusive Majority ... 'cuz should they fail -
they would be staring down a Coalition future.
Everything seems to be working
against PM Harper. Bank of Canada had raised
interest rates too quickly ... as we warned they would (in March
2010).
CMHC continues to feed the real estate bubble with its promotion of
5% down payments despite our warnings to pare back to 10% (a year
ago). Bad housing policy helped create Canada's
$77,000 Housing Bubble. The
assault on net worth is hardly a remedy for consumer confidence
building. And with interest rates rising ... an export killing
par-plus Loonie undermines job creation. Leadership must be
questioned when all this was indeed foretold.
The TrendLines Research composite
Riding Projection has been
Canada's most accurate forecast tool,
measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections. Each
month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat
projections from across Canada. One of the models included is
our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the
2008 Autumn Election. This model indicates PM Harper would
have began a hypothetical January 1st election campaign with a lead
in 142 Ridings, followed by: 89
Liberals, 30 NDP, 45 BQ & 2 Indept's.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 6 national polls conducted Nov29-Dec15 2010
by 5 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early January
election campaign with a lead in 140 Seats ...
up 9 from thirty days prior. The Liberal Party would start
with 89 Members (down 5). The Bloc & NDP would have started an
early Winter campaign with 49 &
29 Ridings respectively (plus one Indep't. This is the eighth consecutive month where our long term
momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits)
to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in
October 2012 ... leading in 118 Ridings upon the dropping of that
potential writ.
Dec 20 2010 ~
Coalition & CBC
Desperate for Election ... Before "Fox-North" hits the
airwaves!
The by-elections are done and all focus by CBC & the Coalition is on
precipitating a Spring election before Sun Media changes the
landscape. An audience starved for real news analysis unbiased
by pacifists, homosexuals & socialists is about to be satisfied...
Today's chart, illustrating the Grits
would commence a potential campaign with a 17-seat lead (over 2008), may reflect
voter dissatisfaction with Government efforts to maintain what was
once a
robust economic recovery. While StatCan is currently reporting
an annualized GDP of 1.3% for October, our
Recession Indicator infers November was a scant 0.4% and Q4 1.3%
... barely avoiding double-dip! As a result,
Unemployment sits in a 7.6% quagmire. Because we project sub
2% as far out as July 2011, it is a very bad environment for the Conservatives to
attempt a run for the elusive Majority.
Everything seems to be working
against PM Harper. Bank of Canada had raised
interest rates too quickly ... as we warned they would (in March
2010).
CMHC continues to feed the real estate bubble with its promotion of
5% down payments despite our warnings to pare back to 10% (a year
ago). Bad housing policy helped create Canada's
$76,000 Housing Bubble. The
assault on net worth is hardly a remedy for consumer confidence
building. And with interest rates rising ... an export killing
par-plus Loonie undermines job creation. Leadership must be
questioned when all this was indeed foretold. The only
prospect on the horizon is an expected "Fox-North" bump!
The TrendLines Research composite
Riding Projection has been
Canada's most accurate forecast tool,
measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections. Each
month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat
projections from across Canada. One of the models included is
our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the
2008 Autumn Election. This model indicates PM Harper would
have began a hypothetical December 1st election campaign with a lead
in 134 Ridings, followed by: 101
Liberals, 27 NDP, 44 BQ & 2 Indept's.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 3 national polls conducted Nov1-30 2010
by 4 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early December
election campaign with a lead in 131 Seats ...
up 3 from thirty days prior. The Liberal Party would start
with 94 Members (up 2). The Bloc & NDP would have started a
late Autumn campaign with 50 &
33 Ridings respectively. This is the seventh consecutive month where our long term
momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits)
to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in
October 2012 ... leading in 115 Ridings upon the dropping of that
potential writ.
Nov 26 2010 ~
Coalition's Worst
Nitemare: "Fox-North" given green light by CRTC
Today is a great day for our nation. The CRTC has handed the
Coalition its worst nitemare ... Sun Media can go ahead with its
"Fox-North" project! By Spring Canadian voters no longer must
endure pacifists debating war strategy & F-35s, homosexuals
dictating family values, or on-air socialists spewing
anti-Americanism anti-Capitalist rhetoric or enabling it via
pundits. The USA 2010 mid-term Elections illustrated
Fox-South's ability to wake-up the silent majority. To
preserve their ambitious social engineering agenda, the Coalition
will do everything in its power to force a General Election prior to
air date.
Today's chart illustrating the Grits
would commence a potential campaign with a 15-seat lead (over 2008) may reflect
voter dissatisfaction with Government efforts to maintain what was
once a
robust economic recovery. While StatCan is currently reporting
an annualized GDP of 1.3% for August, our
Recession Indicator infers October was 0.8% and November
probably negative. In short, both Summer & Autumn sucked. As a result,
Unemployment sits in an 7.9% quagmire. We see a mild rebound
ahead, but it is a very bad environment for the Conservatives to
attempt a run for the elusive Majority ... better to await the
"Fox-North" bump!
The worst of this for PM Harper is
that it is not of his doing. Bank of Canada had raised
interest rates too quickly ... as we warned they would (in March
2010).
CMHC continues to feed the real estate bubble with its promotion of
5% down payments despite our warnings to pare back to 10% (a year
ago). Bad housing policy helped create Canada's
$75,000 Housing Bubble
... and home prices have been plunging by over $800/week since May
2010. The
assault on net worth is hardly a remedy for consumer confidence
building. And with interest rates rising ... an export killing
par-plus Loonie undermines job creation. Leadership must be
questioned when all this was indeed foretold. In any
event, the Tories can take some solace in
our continued
assessment
that Q1 will grow at an improved 1.7% pace.
The TrendLines Research composite
Riding Projection has been
Canada's most accurate forecast tool,
measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections. Each
month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat
projections from across Canada. One of the models included is
our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the
2008 Autumn Election. This model indicates PM Harper would
have began a hypothetical Nov 1st election campaign with a lead in
127 Ridings, followed by: 93
Liberals, 40 NDP, 45 BQ & 3 Indept's.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 6 national polls conducted Oct1-Nov1 2010
by 6 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early November
election campaign with a lead in 128 Seats ...
down 1 from thirty days prior. The Liberal Party would start
with 92 Members (down 5). The Bloc & NDP would have started an
early Summer campaign with 52 &
35 Ridings respectively. This is the sixth consecutive month where our long term
momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits)
to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in
October 2012 ... leading in 114 Ridings upon the dropping of that
potential writ.
Oct 28 2010:
Liberals Poised to
gain 20 MPs upon an Improbable Autumn Election
Despite much self-interest on air promotion by CBC & CTV pundits for
an Autumn election (code for ad revenues), the likely gain of only
20 Liberal seats should dampen that prospect.
This apparent Grit gain may reflect
voter dissatisfaction with Government efforts to maintain what was a
robust economic recovery. While StatCan is currently reporting
an annualized GDP of 1.6% for July, our
Recession Indicator infers August was a mere 0.3% & September
0.8%. In short, the Summer sucked. As a result,
Unemployment sits in an 8% quagmire. We see a mild rebound in
play, but it is a very bad environment for the Conservatives to
attempt a run for the elusive Majority.
The worst of this for PM Harper is
that it is not of his doing. Bank of Canada is raising
interest rates too soon ... as we warned they would (in March).
CMHC continues to feed the real estate bubble with its adherence to
5% down payments despite our warnings to pare back to 10% (a year
ago). Bad housing policy helped create Canada's
$77,000 Housing Bubble
... and now home prices are plunging by over $800/week. The
assault on net worth is hardly a remedy for consumer confidence
building. And with interest rates rising ... an export killing
par-plus Loonie undermines job creation. Leadership must be
questioned when all this was foretold. In any
event, the Tories can take some solace in
our continued
assessment
that Q4 will grow at an improved 2% pace.
The TrendLines Research composite
Riding Projection has been
Canada's most accurate forecast tool,
measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections. Each
month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat
projections from across Canada. One of the models included is
our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the
2008 Autumn Election. This model indicates PM Harper would
have began a hypothetical Oct 3rd election campaign with a lead in
130 Ridings, followed by: 105
Liberals, 26 NDP, 46 BQ & 1 Indep't.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 5 national polls conducted Sept 2-28 2010
by 6 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early October
Election Campaign with a lead in 128 Seats ...
up 1 from thirty days prior. The Liberal Party would start
with 97 Members (up 2). The Bloc & NDP would have started an
early Summer campaign with 52 &
31 Ridings respectively. This is the fifth consecutive month where our long term
momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits)
to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in
October 2012 ... leading in 113 Ridings upon the dropping of that
potential writ.
Sept 28 2010:
CBC
Pacifist/Pro-Abortionist using Petition as Final Act of Desperation
to Halt Fox North
The on-air promotion of the Progressives (socialist) agenda by MSNBC
& CNN has virtually bankrupted those media outlets via the
alienation of the right wing and independent leaning components of
their audiences and the inevitable loss in viewership and ad
revenues. This has enabled Fox News to decimate the ratings of
the leftist cable news channels and capture the top 13 spots of 2010
programming. Here in Canada, much less accountable CBC is
heading down the same agenda-driven path. Already facing a
$1.8 billion annual loss in its last fiscal year, in part due to an
18% miss of its advertising targets, on-air pacifist &
pro-abortionist Evan Solomon was imploring his audience to signup at
a web-based petition to halt approval by CRTC of Sun Media's "Fox
North" type specialty channel.
The Conservatives have
visibly reduced their TV advertising. The clumsiness of the
pro-Liberal stance by the National & NewsNetwork (formerly
Newsworld) since last October has thus far been a gift from God for
the governing Party. The daily emphasis of wedge issues
appears to be crystallizing the Right's core support. There
will be great anticipation awaiting the effects on rural polling of
CBC's anti long gun registry campaign. Add to this the
embarrassment by Canadian voters who recognized the Iranian
President's UN 9/11 rant was entirely based on conspiracy
speculation provided to him by CBC's Fifth Estate & the Passionate
Eye. Tin foil types at the CBC are convinced Bush blew up the
towers and used a Cruise to blowup the Pentagon. None of the
global condemnation of Ahmadinejad's musings has yet blown back on
the Network ... but we all know where he got his material!
Similarly, while CBC
continues to assault the PM on his G8/G20 Summit effort, the rest of
the known world is reveling in his contribution to currency
stability. Stephen Harper's cunning strategy to secure
G-8/G-20 agreement for nations to sign on to an aspirational halving
of their fiscal Deficits by 2014 caused much needed and timely
confidence to infiltrate the international investment community.
The EUR:USD exchange had plummeted to a 1.18 rate. Assisted by
the UK Conservative Party's austerity announcement in the days
before the Summit ... and wide adoption of that measure by the
EuroZone, the exchange rate is a robust 1.36 today! Late
September polling results could very well be the final dagger thru
Iggy's heart as he finds himself an innocent victim to CBC's failed
on-air strategy to assist the Liberals' cause in order to cement its
own survival.
The economic contraction ended August 2009, but the impressive recovery
retreated to the brink of double-dip in August ... probably a mere
0.3% GDP. Back on March 5th,
I
had warned (via our Recession Index) that Bank of Canada may have to ratchet back
if it raised interest rates too quickly in light of a
probable
double-dip in the USA, an export killing par-plus Loonie &
a winding down of Canada's
$79,000 Housing Bubble.
Carney has since raised rates three times.
BofC & the Minister of Finance had
assured Canadians that
there is no realty bubble up here. In
the meantime, the national average has been plunging over
$1,600/week since the May peak in home price. As the 6%
decline thus far matches the cumulative drop in Canada's 1989 bubble
event, PM Harper can take some solace in
our current assessment
that Q4 will grow at an improved 2.1% pace.
The TrendLines Research composite
Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool,
measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections. Each
month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat
projections from across Canada. One of the models included is
our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the
2008 Autumn Election. This model indicates PM Harper would
have began a hypothetical Sept 3rd Election Campaign with a lead in
120
Ridings, followed by: 114
Liberals, 26 NDP, 47 BQ & 1 Indep't.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 7 national polls conducted Aug 2 - Sept 3 2010
by 8 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early September
Election Campaign with a lead in 127 Seats ...
down 6 from thirty days prior. The Liberal Party would start
with 95 Members (up 9). The Bloc & NDP would have started an
early Summer campaign with 53 &
33 Ridings respectively. This is the fourth consecutive month where our long term
momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits)
to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in
October 2012 ... leading in 112 Ridings upon the dropping of that
potential writ.
Aug 20 2010:
"Evan Solomon, you
have been trying to help me since October ... PLEASE STOP !"
It's the summer doldrums and attention is on tomorrow's
Australian
election, so we'll keep this short. As one views
today's chart, we can all hear Mr Ignatieff saying just one thing:
"Evan Solomon, you have been trying to help me since October ...
PLEASE STOP !"
The Recession was over in March 2009,
the contraction in August 2009, but the impressive recovery appears
to be on the brink of delivering its first bout of bad economic news
for PM Harper.
We're predicting StatCan will
at month end announce Q2 GDP of 5.4%, which of course is good, but a
sudden breakdown in leading indicators infers next month's
announcement of July GDP will be a dismal 1.8% growth rate. On the horizon, the winding down of fiscal stimulus, a
probable
double-dip in the USA, an export killing par Loonie &
a winding down of Canada's
$79,000 Housing Bubble ... could
combine to dampen GDP to the 1.1%
vicinity by mid 2012. The monthly average for national home
prices has declined $17,000 since the May peak.
The TrendLines Research composite
Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool,
measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections. Each
month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat
projections from across Canada. One of the models included is
our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the
2008 Autumn Election. This model indicates PM Harper would
have started a hypothetical Aug 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 133
Ridings, followed by: 97
Liberals, 29 NDP, 48 BQ & 1 Indep't.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 5 national polls conducted July 5-27 2010
by 8 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early August
Election Campaign with a lead in 133 Seats ...
up 2 from thirty days prior. The Liberal Party would start
with 86 Members (down 1). The Bloc & NDP would have started an
early Summer campaign with 53 &
36 Ridings respectively. For the third consecutive month,
these are the first results since December 2008, where our long term
momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits)
to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in
October 2012 ... leading in 112 Ridings upon the dropping of that writ.
July 26 2010:
Can UK Coalition Agreement Raise the Bar in Canada?
The spirit of cooperation and conciliation resulting in a marvelous
Coalition Agreement in the days after the UK Election certainly
throws down the gauntlet to Canadian politicians. The
Agreement offers guidance on a myriad of platform issues to be dealt
with over the next five years,
and awards
several Cabinet posts (incl Deputy PM) to the Liberal-Democrats by
the Conservatives.
Facing its first
crisis, a potential currency devaluation engineered by bond
vigilantes due to a monumental deficits and national debt, the two
parties agreed to an austerity budget chopping program spending by
25%. Only the solidarity of their political union enabled
these bold measures.
Many jurisdictions are besieged with partisanship to the degree that
situations have become so adversarial as to make their legislation
process dysfunctional. The UK model illustrates 2 plus 2 can
equal 5. The quest for power was secondary.
Meanwhile,
PM Harper will continue to get great news on the economic front.
We're predicting StatCan will
this week announce May GDP of 7.5% ... a growth rate not seen since
2002. Next week should see further decline in the Unemployment Rate.
On the horizon, the winding down of fiscal stimulus and a
probable
double-dip in the USA could dampen GDP to the 2.3%
vicinity by October. Despite short, medium & long term
problems in the USA, Canada's GDP should return to the 2.7% mean by
2012Q2.
The TrendLines Research composite
Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool,
measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections. Each
month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat
projections from across Canada. One of the models included is
our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the
2008 Autumn Election. This model indicates PM Harper would
have started a hypothetical July 3rd Election Campaign with a lead in 132
Ridings, followed by: 95
Liberals, 32 NDP, 48 BQ & 1 Indep't.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 5 national polls conducted May30-July3 2010
by 6 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early July
Election Campaign with a lead in 131 Seats ...
down 5 from thirty days prior. The Liberal Party would start
with 87 Members (same). The Bloc & NDP would have started a
late Spring campaign with 52 &
37 Ridings respectively. For the second consecutive month,
these are the first results since December
2008, where our long term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories
(rather than the Grits) to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012 ... leading in 109 Ridings upon the dropping of that writ.
June 30 2010:
Sun Media bringing a "FoxNorth" to Canadians Desperate for Fair &
Balanced News!
Just days after our CBC rants, Sun Media has announced its desire to
bring fair and balanced news via a Canadian Cable Channel. Fox
News claimed another victim south of the border this week ... Larry
King. With Fox owning the top 13 cable news programs, Sun no
doubt sees the same opportunity in Canada for a national broadcaster
that caters to audiences desperate to get away from the left wing
drivel that has polluted the airwaves. CNN & MSNBC are near
bankruptcy. CBC is the obviously the vulnerable target north
of the 49th.
CBC has finally dropped the
two-pronged attack on the Conservative Gov't. Its pacifist
position on Afghanistan has no visible public support. And
CBC's on-air obsession with free abortions was finally put to rest
the day after a report from Canadian hospitals surfaced revealing 3
late-term abortions are performed every single day in Canada.
The unholy alliance between CBC and the Liberal Party resulted in
the latter's fortunes plummeting to a mere 87 potential seats by the
end of May. A failed experiment for both. The CBC comes
out of this with a $1.8 billion operating deficit as advertising
revenue from firms with right wing sentiment withdraw. CBC
missed its ad target by 18% in its last financial report.
Meanwhile,
PM Harper will continue to get great news on the economic front.
We're predicting StatCan will
announce within four weeks that growth's recent record of 5.7% GDP
set in January could be surpassed, along with another decline in the Unemployment Rate.
On the horizon, the winding down of fiscal stimulus and a
probable
double-dip in the USA should dampen GDP to the 2.3%
vicinity by Spring 2012, followed by a return to the 2.7% mean
shortly thereafter.
The TrendLines Research composite
Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool,
measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections. Each
month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat
projections from across Canada. One of the models included is
our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the
2008 Autumn Election. This model indicates PM Harper would
have started a hypothetical June 1st Election Campaign with a lead
in 136 Ridings, followed by: 87
Liberals, 35 NDP & 50 BQ.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 7 national polls conducted April30-June1 2010
by 7 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early June
Election Campaign with a lead in 136 Seats ...
up 4 from thirty days prior. The Liberal Party would start
with 87 Members (down 2). The Bloc & NDP would have started a
late Spring campaign with 50 &
35 Ridings respectively. For the first time since December
2008, our long term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories
(rather than the Grits) to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012 ... leading in 109 Ridings upon the dropping of that writ.
May 14 update: CBC Fails to
Provoke Federal Election
Due to our recent "rants" regarding lack of
objectivity in CBC news and current affairs content, Hubert Lacroix, president
of CBC,
today announced an outside "study" of
these bias claims. It is to be released by Thanxgiving Day.
It was a doubly somber day at CBC with the announcement that a
multi-party agreement has been forwarded to the Speaker on the
release of Afghan detainee documents issue. It has been
apparent for seven months that the CBC has been inflaming this
situation with aspirations of provoking a snap General Election.
CBC needed the ad revenue.
Failing to generate these funds, CBC
joins Greece & California as a dead man walking.
Documents procured by TrendLines Research reveal the CBC's annual
operating deficit has reached $1.8 billion. Its TV
advertising revenue has declined. More instructively, CBC
missed its $352 million TV ad target by $65 million (18%).
Less than 3% of Canadians are watching/listening to CBC each day.
CBC content had deteriorated to
tabloid-style sensationalist "journalism" with few segments putting
issues in their proper context. CBC has adopted an MSNBC far
left political agenda which drives away conservative audiences.
By openly advocating radical socialist issues and opinions, its
on-air personalities risk damaging audience-share and subsequently
... advertising revenues. This may be fine for a private
corporation that is a soap-box for a liberal political motivations.
MSNBC will shortly join its radio counterpart (Air America) in
bankruptcy. But while MSNBC is beholden and answerable to its
shareholder for its misguided strategy, Canadian taxpayers have no
such venue for opposition to radical liberal factions of the CBC
using this crown corporation (a national utility) for its promoting
its platform.
It is time for common sense. It
is time for parliamentarians to privatize the CBC. It no
longer serves that national interest. At the very least,
CBC-TV should be transitioned to a pay-per-view cable/satellite
option. Similarly CBC-Radio & Radio-Quebec should be
transitioned from their ad-free status and commence paying their own
bills ... just as Greece, California, Spain & Portugal are being
forced to implement austerity measures. Canadian taxpayers
face a $46 annual billion deficit in 2010. Ridding themselves
of $1.8 billion via reorganization of the CBC makes sense. Its
mandate of providing signals to the wilderness regions of Canada no
longer applies. Northerners near the Arctic Circle like myself
get several free radio stations and for twenty bucks monthly receive
80 satellite TV channels on ShawDirect (StarChoice). It's
time... (link)
May 5
2010:
Rogue CBC Agenda is Decimating Liberal Support
Unprecedented
vicious attacks on North American conservatives by the far left has
become a teachable moment in unintended consequences. The
Progressives' wing of the Democrat Party was unrelenting in their
assault on Sarah Palin in 2009. This year their target was
Glen Beck. Both movements were enabled by the Whitehouse and
MSNBC. Consider the shock when their investigative
reporters found the aggressor-inspired notoriety resulted in Palin &
Beck raking in $11 Million & $12 Million respectively. Oops...
Nobody on the Right is getting
wealthy in Canada, but the CBC assault on the Tories has been
no less costly. By enabling a small agenda-driven group of
pacifists & pro-abortionists that have hijacked the news department
at CBC, the Liberal Party has seen its core support
decimated. Save for a brief "prorogue" bump in January, the
Grits have relapsed to the 80's in our seat projections.
As
elaborated on last month, CBC's
ill-founded strategy is based on four goals: (a) liberalize
free abortions in Canada and internationally; (b) end Canada's
involvement in the Afghanistan by indictments of 44 Canadian
soldiers and diplomats for war crimes; (c) a social
engineering agenda promoting abortion; and (d) build
advertising revenues by prompting a federal election.
Canadian viewers have been subjected
to sensationalized segments in a general deteriorated environment of
tabloid-style journalism. The least common denominator
prevails. This campaign, now in its seventh month, has seen
Liberal support founder to less than 90 seats in no less than four
of those months. The alliance between the Liberal Party of
Canada & CBC reflects a bankruptcy of leadership and fresh ideas at
both institutions.
Andrew Coyne's thoughtful essay on
the status and long-term prospects for the Liberal Party can provide
guidance for its membership. Alienation of its conservative
and independent viewers has no doubt pared its audience share and
correlated income. When a rogue partisan agenda increases
funding exposure to taxpayers in such detrimental fashion, it's time
to sell that organization or transform it to a user-pay channel
(akin to MSNBC) to be carried by its ideologue supporters ... not
the general Canadian population.
On the good news front (at least for
PM Harper),
we're predicting StatCan will
announce by month end a March 2010 GDP growth rate of 4.1%
& another decline in the Unemployment Rate. Unfortunately,
failure by the US Congress to address its
mounting Deficits & National Debt
will continue to wreak havoc on the USDollar, and it secular
debasement is taking the crude oil price on a journey to
$91/barrel by
Q3. Exceeding this threshold matches the
Gasoline/GDP ratio that decimated USA New Car Sales in
1980, 1990 & 2007, and sets the stage for an
American
double-dip Recession that
will no doubt have harsh ramifications North of the 49th.
The TrendLines Research composite Riding
Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four
Federal/Ontario elections. Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently
available seat projections from across Canada. One of
the models included is our own
conversion, which on its own was the
most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election. This model indicates
PM Harper would have started a hypothetical May 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 139
Ridings, followed by: 87
Liberals, 36 NDP, 45 BQ & 1 Indep't.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of 5 national polls conducted April 21-29 2010
by 5 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early May
Election Campaign with a lead in 132 Seats ...
up 1 from thirty days prior. The Bloc & NDP would have started an
early Spring campaign with 50 &
37 Ridings respectively. Despite Ignatieff's standing falling
7 Members to 89,
long
term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will
eventually take
the projection lead (Sept 2012), and is poised for an ultimate
112 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012.
April 11
2010:
Time to Sell the CBC ~
Today's commentary is motivated by
CBC's determined decision to program a sixth successive month of
pro-abortion, pro-pacifist positions in its news broadcasts.
This serialized effort has been tracked in our "below the fold"
blog. To it we can add Evan Solomon's enlistment of Noam
Chomsky (March 30) to further his Trotskyite socialist idealism and
Terry Milewski (April 7) to cement their goal of committing to trial
44 members of the Canadian Forces for war crimes. It was in
this latter Power & Politics segment our soldiers faced
accusations of "battlefield executions" by these CBC
personalities.
Over the past six months, the projected seat count for the
Conservatives has averaged 136 MPs compared to 92 for the Liberal
Party. Yet despite this obvious spread, CBC staff have taken
on a very visible campaign to goad the Opposition into forcing a
General Election. What are their motives? Two come to
mind immediately: they are in desperate financial straits &
they fear the deficit-reduction environment has spawned sufficient
sentiment to lay the groundwork for a partitioned sale of their
media outlet by the Conservative Gov't as part of its strategic
asset sales.
The CBC is plainly operating in
survival mode. It desires a Federal Election at a time when no
Party can attain a Majority. This strategy provides its TV
division with guaranteed revenues over two election cycles over the
next three years. In particular, the CBC's News Department is
void of objectiveness in its quest to survive. It has adopted
the very same opinionated rhetoric of its American counterparts.
Emboldened by the election of a Democratic president, leftist cable
channels have been reduced to unsustainable market shares by loss of
audiences to Fox News. The top 13 rated news programs in the
last quarter were indeed Fox programs.
By adopting Progressive-leaning MSNBC
pundits and similar stands on moral issues (e.g. pro-abortion), CBC
is heading down the same fatal path, but here in Canada it is at the
peril of the Canadian taxpayer ... not shareholders. Like
MSNBC et al, CBC is alienating its conservative-leaning audience and
advertisers. Further, declining audiences will result is less
revenues from its remaining advertisers. As advertising
revenues decline, the taxpayer will called upon for inevitable
rising shortfalls. By striving to become MSNBC-North, the CBC
is exposing itself to be bankrupt ... both in terms of financial
soundness and programming content.
The case is complete for ending the
CBC in its present format. As evidenced in recent CRTC
Hearings, every residence in Canada has affordable ($20/month)
access to basic multi-channel TV programming via cable or satellite.
While several USA cable news channels are about to meet their demise
due to their thoughtless abandonment of right-wing audiences, those
are commercial decisions where the only victims will be
shareholders. It is inconceivable that such a suicidal path based on
management ideology purposed should be adopted by a public agency
such as the CBC.
In short, the taxpayer must not be
forced to subsidize leftist zealots. The election of a
self-admitted Trotskyite president in the USA has encouraged
like-minded socialists to further their cause by creating soapboxes
within the mainstream media of North America. Dogma is
over-riding business sense decision making. It is time to end
the free platform for failed Progressive pundits, pacifists,
anti-Catholic rhetoric & gloom merchants furthering their own
agendas. It is time to deconstruct CBC and sell off its parts
or transform its TV Division to a pay channel where its present
content will be soon gauged by audiences no longer under duress.
Similarly, its Radio Division should prove its financial feasibility
by transformation from its commercial-free status.
On the good news front (at least for
PM Harper),
we're predicting StatCan will
announce within three weeks a February 2010 GDP growth rate of 4.6%
& another decline in the Unemployment Rate. Unfortunately,
failure by the US Congress to address its
mounting Deficits & National Debt
will continue to wreak havoc on the USDollar, and it secular
debasement is taking the crude oil price on a journey to
$91/barrel by
Q4. Exceeding this threshold matches the
Gasoline/GDP ratio that decimated USA New Car Sales in
1980, 1990 & 2007, and sets the stage for an
American
double-dip Recession that
will no doubt have harsh ramifications North of the 49th.
The TrendLines Research composite Riding
Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four
Federal/Ontario elections. Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently
available seat projections from across Canada. One of
the models included is our own
conversion, which on its own was the
most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election. This model indicates
PM Harper would have started a hypothetical April 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 130
Ridings, followed by: 105
Liberals, 29 NDP, 43 BQ & 1 Indep't.
When our own numbers
are
blended with the other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
practitioner canvassing and the conversion of
6 national polls conducted March 3-30 2010
by 5 active projection models. It reveals
that the
governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early April
Election Campaign with a lead in 131 Seats ...
up 2 from thirty days prior. The Bloc & NDP would have started an
early Spring campaign with 47 &
34 Ridings respectively. Despite Ignatieff's standing falling
4 Members to 96,
long
term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will
eventually take
the projection lead (March 2012), and is poised for an ultimate
120 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012.
March 18
2010:
TrendLiners will remember my reflections back on
June 30 2009
that in the coming twelve months the Liberal leader would regret his
"missed opportunity" of making seat count inroads by not forcing a
Summer Election. At that precise time, the Grits were enjoying
a fourth month with the lead, and a frenzied segment of the North
American media was irresponsibly reporting with a sense of glee the
onset of a second Great Depression. Conversely, I mused that
my
Recession Meter indicated the USA
Recession had troughed three months prior and better economic news
was on the horizon.
In October I mentioned Ignatieff
had finally adopted a
two-step election strategy towards Majority - probably something
like 77 ridings to 117 to 157. But again a nervous trigger
finger prevailed. Then came our
bold prediction on Nov 20 2009 that
all options were closed out for the Liberal Party as three factors
were about to give the Conservatives a bump in sentiment: an
imminent GDP announcement of over 5% GDP growth, lower unemployment
rates & lotsa Olympic-inspired patriotic enthusiasm. It has
all come to pass...
There is general agreement that this
bump would have been even more overwhelming had PM Harper not
prorogued Parliament. But, that tactical maneuver enabled the
Tories to capture a Majority in the Senate ... a small price to pay
for an overall advantage in legislative process. Anyway,
Question Period is back in service ... but where in the world is
Michael Ignatieff?
Granting me some latitude to muse
about the future once again, there continues to be generally
improving economic news, but we see storm clouds ahead. For
the first time, our
USA Recession Meter is this week
predicting the dreaded double-dip, based on this short-term
chain of events: (a) Congress/Obama fail to address their
Deficit & National Debt bubbles; (b) foreign investors
commence to reflect on their role in enabling this bad behaviour;
(c) the secular decline of the USDollar resumes; (d) by
September, crude price rises past a threshold USA Petroleum Cost/GDP
ratio represented by $91/barrel oil & $3.37/gal gasoline; (e)
USA New Car Sales re-collapse ... as occurred in 1980, 1990 & 2007.
It must be remembered that our
Recession in Canada escalated from Technical to Severe 'cuz USA New
Home & Car Sales had been decimated. This dramatically hurt
our related export sector, and a double-dip south of the 49th
can replicate that episode. Should the Bank of Canada be
cautious on its incremental raising of interest rates via its
Monetary Policy, a contraction can be avoided in this country.
On the currency side, today's $0.99 exchange rate infers market
traders envision a $205/barrel WTI oil price in one year.
Historically, the Loonie rises 1-cent
for each $8/barrel increase in crude. Perceived as a
commodity-based currency, an upward move in petroleum is considered
a boon to the Alberta & Newfoundland energy sectors. This $205
marker conflicts dramatically with the 1-yr target for USA contract
crude (5% less than WTI) per our
Barrel Meter: currently
$117/barrel. A significant degree of speculation is in play.
The current contract price of $78/barrel warrants a fair value of
the Cndn Dollar of only $0.83 today.
So with our Government engaged in
multi-year Deficits in a Keynesian approach to modulate the last
Recession; with The Hill mired in a hopeless state of
dysfunction in the House of Commons and Committees; and with the
nation facing a potential economic downturn for our largest trading
partner ... what is the Opposition doing to address these concerns?
Well, I am dismayed to report for a
fifth consecutive month the only vocal activity in Ottawa
is the ongoing hijack of the agenda by pacifists from both the Opposition and the mainstream
media. They continue their irrational quest to lay war crime charges against
44
members the Canadian military operation active in Afghanistan back in
2006. On behalf of
Amnesty International & the BC Civil Liberties Assoc, certain MPs
are abusing the Committee process to secure self-incriminating
testimony from Canadian soldiers, diplomats, civil servants and
other officials. Their intent is to prepare a damning dossier
to be ultimately presented to prosecutors at the Int'l Criminal
Tribunal at the World Court in The Hague. Ujjal Dosangh
(Liberal), Paul Dewar (NDP), Evan Solomon (CBC) & Tom Clark (CTV)
have been the visible proponents of this political agenda.
This effort has been brewing for some
period of time. To these MPs, the measure is payback for the
despised extension of Canada's Afghan mission 'til 2011. It is
a two front attack with hopes of ending our participation in 2010
... not 2011. One involves embarrassing Canada on the world
stage via a very public war crimes investigation. As many as
44 Canadians that have appeared or have been associated with the
detainee transfers could face crimes against humanity charges
based on MP actions to date. At risk of arrest, such charges
would prevent international air travel by said Canadian soldiers and
others caught in the pacifist net.
The other path is a strategy to force
the Canadian Gov't into building their own prisoner facility.
This is an inherited issue. As background, rampant
anti-Americanism within the Liberal Cabinet ranks prior to 2006
prevented Canada from handing off prisoners to the US forces for
housing in the USA's newly built Afghan facility. Instead, the
Liberal Cabinet ordered our troops to pass off the detainees
directly to Afghan authorities, despite the known torture and abuse
history. This action by the Paul Martin Liberals provided
pacifists the ammunition to attempt to force the new Conservative
Cabinet to build and administer its own facility in Kandahar.
They believed that in face of such a monumental task, it would be
more probable for Canada to "cut and run" than incur that cost.
But in January 2006, the new Government refused the new facility,
scoffed at leaving before 2012, and implemented an improved detainee
agreement with the Afghan Gov't. Most Opposition MPs see a
political advantage to allow the unfolding of this travesty in order
to embarrass the Conservative Gov't. And the cynicism of
Canadians towards adversarial partisan politics grows...
On the good news front (at least for
PM Harper),
we're predicting StatCan will
announce within two weeks a January 2010 GDP growth rate of 7.3%
& another decline in the Unemployment Rate.
The TrendLines Research composite Riding
Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four
Federal/Ontario elections. Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently
available seat projections from across Canada & the UK. One of
the models included is our own
conversion, which on its own was the
most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election. It indicates today that the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical
March 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 122 Seats, followed by:
117
Liberals, 27 NDP & 41 BQ & 1 Indep't.
When our own study is
blended with other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
practitioner canvassing and the conversion of
7 national polls conducted Jan 29 to Mar 2 2010
by 7 active projection models. It reveals
that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an
early March Election Campaign with a lead in 129 Ridings ...
up 8 from thirty days prior. The Bloc & NDP would start a
late Autumn campaign with 47 &
32 Ridings respectively. Despite Ignatieff's standing falling
7 Members to 100,
long
term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will
eventually take
the projection lead (January 2012), and is poised for an ultimate
120 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012.
Feb 14
2010:
Another month ... and another four weeks having to endure pacifists from both the Opposition and the mainstream
media in their irrational quest to lay war crime charges against a score of
members the Canadian military operation active in Afghanistan in
2006. Almost escaping attention, was the high political price
being paid by the Prime Minister for his second proroguing of
Parliament. The distasteful measure was absolutely necessary
in order for him to secure a Conservative Majority in the Senate.
The end result was quite helpful to the Ignatieff
Liberals. Unfortunately for the Liberals,
we're predicting StatCan will
shortly announce a 2009Q4 GDP growth rate of 6.2%, as the economic recovery lays
the foundation for further reductions in the Unemployment Rate.
Layered over this
will be the patriotic enthusiasm building around successes at the Vancouver Olympics.
The TrendLines Research composite Riding
Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four
Federal/Ontario elections. Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently
available seat projections from across Canada & the UK. One of
the models included is our own
conversion, which on its own was the
most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election. It indicates today that the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical
February 1st Election Campaign with a lead in only 115 Seats, followed by:
121
Liberals, 27NDP & 45 BQ.
Conversely, when our own study is
blended with other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of
5 national polls conducted Jan 5 to Feb 2 2010
by 7 active projection models. It reveals
that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an
early February Election Campaign with a lead in only 121 Ridings ...
down 22 from thirty days prior. The Bloc & NDP would start a
late Autumn campaign with 48 &
32 Ridings respectively. On top of Ignatieff's standing rising
22 Members to 107,
long
term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will
eventually take
the projection lead (December 2011), and is poised for an ultimate 114 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012.
Jan 27
2010:
The Harper Conservatives ended the year with a potential seat count
equal to their status after the October 2008 election ... 143 seats.
Pacifists from both the Opposition and the mainstream media have
hijacked political discussion for yet another month in their
irrational quest to lay war crime charges against a score of members
the Canadian military operation active in Afghanistan in 2006.
Core support for the Ignatieff
Liberals seems to have been established in low 80's. Unfortunately for the Liberals,
we're predicting StatCan will
shortly announce a 2009Q4 GDP growth rate of 6.2%, as the economic recovery lays
the foundation for further reductions in the Unemployment Rate.
If that's not enuf bad news in the short term, layered over this
will be the patriotic enthusiasm surrounding the Vancouver Olympics.
The TrendLines Research composite Riding
Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four
Federal/Ontario elections. Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently
available seat projections from across Canada & the UK. One of
the models included is our own
conversion, which on its own was the
most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election. It indicates that the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical
January 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 142 Seats, followed by:
92
Liberals, 30 NDP, 43 BQ & 1 Indep't.
When our own study is
blended with other available models for a broader
analysis, the findings as featured in our headline chart result.
Today's presentation is based on
the conversion of
4 national polls conducted Dec 9-20 2009
by 5 active projection models (along with practitioner canvassing). It reveals
that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an
early January Election Campaign with a lead in 143 Ridings ... no
change from thirty days prior. The Bloc & NDP would start a
late Autumn campaign with 47 &
32 Ridings respectively. Albeit Ignatieff's standing rose only
three Members to 86,
long
term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will
eventually take
the projection lead (January 2012), and is poised for an ultimate 112 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012. This marks the third time since April that a Liberal
Majority was not in the cards long term.
Dec 17
2009:
We've complained of the dysfunction in Ottawa for some time,
and it's hard to believe that they could reach new lows. But
it's happened. Despite all the urgent issues facing Canadians
presently, pacifist-leaning parliamentarians have been attempting to
hijack the political agenda. The campaign has been facilitated
by pacifist sympathizers within the mainstream Media. On
behalf of Amnesty Int'l & the BC Civil Liberties Assoc, certain MPs
are abusing the Committee process to secure self-incriminating
testimony from Canadian soldiers, diplomats, civil servants and
other officials. The intent is to prepare a damning dossier
which will be presented to prosecutors at the Int'l Criminal Tribunal
at the World Court in The Hague.
This effort has been brewing for some period of time. To these
MPs, the measure is payback for the despised extension of Canada's
Afghan mission 'til 2011. It is a two front attack with hopes
of ending our participation in 2010. One involves embarrassing
Canada on the world stage via a war crimes investigation. As
many as 44 Canadians that have appeared or have been associated with
the transfers could face war crimes charges based on MP actions to
date. At risk of arrest, such charges would prevent int'l air
travel by said Canadian soldiers and others.
The other is a strategy to force the Canadian Gov't to build their
own prisoner facility. This is an inherited issue. As
background, rampant anti-Americanism within the Liberal Cabinet
ranks prior to 2006 prevented Canada from handing off prisoners to
the Americans for housing in their newly built Afghan facility.
Instead, Cabinet ordered troops to pass off the detainees directly
to Afghan authorities, despite the known torture and abuse history.
This provided pacifists the ammunition to force the new Conservative
Cabinet to build and administer its own facility in Kandahar.
They believed that in face of such a monumental task, it would be
more probable for Canada to "cut and run" than incur that cost.
Admittedly the Opposition MPs see a political advantage to
embarrassing the Conservative Gov't as well.
Critical hemorrhaging of Ignatieff
support has been sutured for the moment. Unfortunately for the Liberals,
we're predicting StatCan will
shortly announce an October GDP growth rate of 4.2%, as the economic recovery lays
the foundation for further reductions in Unemployment Rate. Then
add the patriotic enthusiasm surrounding the Vancouver Olympics.
The TrendLines Research composite Riding
Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four
Federal/Ontario elections. Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently
available seat projections from across Canada & the UK. One of
the models included is our own
conversion, which on its own was the
most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election. It indicates that on
December 1st the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical
Election Campaign with a lead in 148 Seats, followed by: 77
Liberals, 34 NDP, 48 BQ & 1 Indep't.
Today's broader
analysis, as featured in our headline chart above, is based on
the conversion of
6 national polls conducted Nov 7-25 2009
by 6 active projection models (plus practitioner canvassing). It reveals
that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an
early December Election Campaign with a lead in 143 Ridings ... down
from 150 thirty days prior. The Bloc & NDP would start a
late Autumn campaign with 49 &
33 Ridings respectively. Albeit Ignatieff's standing rose only
one Member to 83,
long
term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will
eventually take
the projection lead (March 2011), and is poised for an ultimate 125 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012. This marks only the second time since April that a Liberal
Majority was not in the cards long term.
Nov 20
2009:
With Michael Ignatieff away licking his wounds, it's been rather a
quiet month. Pathetic as well some would say, as we watched
some Liberal MPs (via tabloid-style Media facilitators) stoop to the
equivalent level of ambulance-chasers as they pursued the noise-du-jour. Right of center voters on both sides
of the border are becoming impatient. Sheesh, Sarah Palin
events are outdrawing Obama. Speaking of our favourite
Trotskyite, while the whole world was celebrating the collapse of
the Berlin Wall, Obama, Chavez & Layton were AWOL, no doubt mourning
the anniversary of the death of international socialism.
But as the Media leaps off the Iggy
bandwagon, Liberals should take solace that his post-honeymoon blues
are neither unique nor fatal. Just ask Stephen Harper.
After failing to pull the plug on the Martin Gov't in the Spring of
2005 (thanx, Belinda), the same Media was tar & feathering the
Opposition Leader whilst openly attempting to recruit Peter Mackay.
From April to September that year, our riding projections for the
Conservatives fell from 127 to 64 (see chart). Then in phoenix
fashion, Harper came back four months later (Jan/2006) to win
governance with 124 MPs. So the Ignatieff collapse from 125 to
82 these past few weeks is the first half of that same story.
The outcome is in his hands. Unfortunately for the Liberals,
we're predicting StatCan will
shortly announce a September GDP growth rate of 5.2%, as the
economic recovery lays the foundation for lower Unemployment Rates
in Q1. This and the Vancouver Olympics will draw the
electorate from the doldrums.
The TrendLines Research composite Riding
Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four
Federal/Ontario elections. Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently
available seat projections from across Canada & the UK. One of
the models included is our own
conversion, which on its own was the
most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election. It indicates that on
November 1st the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical
Election Campaign with a lead in 152 Seats, followed by: 82
Liberals, 26 NDP, 47 BQ & 1 Indep't.
Today's broader
analysis, as featured in our headline chart, is based on
the conversion of
8 national polls conducted Oct 5 - Nov 3 2009
by 9 active models (plus practitioner canvassing). It reveals
that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an
early November Election Campaign with a lead in 150 Ridings ... up
from 137 thirty days prior. The Bloc & NDP would start an Autumn campaign with 48 &
28 Ridings respectively. Albeit Ignatieff's standing has dropped from
95
to 82 Members,
long
term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will
eventually take
the projection lead (August 2010), and is poised for an ultimate 143 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012. This marks the first time since April that a Liberal
Majority was not in the cards long term.
Nov 9th By-election update:
2
Conservatives, 1 NDP & 1 BQ elected
Oct 21
2009:
Contrary to MSMedia hype, and despite the recent Liberal
misfortunes, there was virtually no chance of a Conservative
Majority had there been an early October federal election.
With only a few weeks 'til the Vancouver Olympics, and no gain seen
for any of the three Opposition Parties, a snap election prior to
release of the Spring 2010 Budget is quite improbable.
The electorate seems as annoyed with
the MSMedia as they are with jockeying politicians. While
TrendLines Research was forecasting positive GDP growth by 2009Q3,
many in the Media were irresponsibly reporting the onset of a great
depression. The monthly update release of our Recession Meter
yesterday confirms that in only days, last October, the Technical
Recession escalated to Severe category. That was a full month
prior the NBER had declared that the USA had entered another
contraction.
It caught most of Canada's economists
by surprise. In a July 31 2008 Fox interview, only days before
economic contraction turned into a Severe Recession, Jeff Rubin, our
newest member of the Lunatic Fringe, was ill-advising the
Federal Reserve to raise interest rates 2% to avert 6% Inflation by
January 2009. By Oct 31 2008, three months into the $131/barrel
collapse in Crude Price, Rubin remained confident that new oil price
records would be set in 2009 and that the Recession would be over by
January 2009, with the Unemployment Rate cresting shortly at 7%.
The media continues to fawn over his $200/barrel forecasts for 2010.
Like the Opposition, it serves their
purpose for those in the Media that have adopted tabloid-style
journalism and talk down the economy by any means that adds to
ratings or revenues. TrendLines declared in August that the
Recession had ended in June. No problem ... now the Media is
predicting a double dip! And
we're predicting 3.9% GDP will be
announced by StatCan Nov 30th...
The TrendLines composite Riding
Projections have been the most accurate measured over the last four
elections Federally and for Ontario. Its chart depicts the
8-model average of current seat projections. It includes our own
conversion, which on its own was the
most accurate in the 2008 Election. Today, it indicates that on
October 1st the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical
Election Campaign with a lead in 133 Seats, followed by: 105
Liberals, 24 NDP, 45 BQ & 1 Indep't. Before his tragic
announcement of non-confidence amidst his Quebec troubles, Michael
Ignatieff had adopted a strategy that becoming Prime Minister is
two-step measure. He would like an interim election to raise
his MP count from 77 by a couple of dozen or more before going for
governance.
In our broader
analysis, based on the conversion of
6 national polls conducted Sept 3-30 2009
by 8 active models, the
governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early October
Election Campaign with a lead in 136 Ridings ... up from 123 thirty
days prior. Albeit Ignatieff's standing dropped from 111 to 95
Members, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal
Party will take the projection lead in January 2010, and is poised
for an ultimate 164 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current
Parliament in October 2012. The Bloc & NDP would start an
Autumn campaign with 48 & 29 Ridings respectively.
Sept 16th
2009: MPs are back from their Summer break, but already Parliament
appears to be as dysfunctional as ever despite the last minute
reconciliation in June. In the spirit of fence mending,
Stephen Harper has since granted audience to Layton & Ignatieff but
once. Speaking of Layton, his quest to re-brand the NDP by an
opportunistic association with closet Trotskyite, Barack Obama of
the Democratic Party, ran aground at the Convention.
Question Period & Parliamentary
Committees have been chaotic since November 2008. Or is it
Spring 2006? The PM continues his complete disdain for the
MSMedia & Opposition MPs. He is governing as if in Majority
mode. He has become the most hated man on-the-Hill.
It particularly got bad with his illegal 2008 Election call.
Then his pompous Proroguing of Parliament to avoid a motion of
non-Confidence made it much worse. In Canada, convention
dictates that the Prime Minister must have the Command of the House
... that means 155 MPs. Harper has only achieved this by
manipulation and trickery.
Our own Riding Projection was the
most accurate in the 2008 Election. Today it indicates that on
Sept 1st the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical
Election Campaign with a lead in 126 Seats, followed by: 122
Liberals, 14 NDP, 45 BQ & 1 Indep't. Sensing this virtual
extinction, Jack Layton coalesced this week and has agreed to
support the Govt's Ways & Means motion - a confidence vote.
The Conservatives have dodged a bullet again.
But this episode only extends the
aforementioned gridlock that has lasted almost a year. If
Stephen Harper cannot cast aside ideologue constraints and find the
depth of character to co-operate with Opposition MPs in a Minority
environment, the time is sincerely appropriate for the Governor
General to seek an alternative MP to lead Canada's Government.
Upon the next failed Confidence vote, GG Jean should deny the PM his
request for an Election ... a deed she in which she was amiss in
September 2008, considering the newly legislated fixed Election
Date. Jean should take up her responsibilities under our
Westminster Electoral System and offer governance to the Leader of
the Opposition.
It is shameful that this week Canada
faced the prospect of a fourth Election in slightly over five years.
The nation is at the verge of banana republic designation. The
Conservative Party does not deserve an Election for yet another
fling at Majority. It used up that chit with last year's Writ.
As uncomfortable and troubling the unholy Opposition alliance may
feel, Westminster dictates that this is the preferred and correct
option for Governor General Jean.
Albeit a rare measure for Canada, it
is the dictated course of action as determined by decades of
convention in dozens of nations around the world that share our
Westminster model. Consistency with electoral precedent is
paramount to her favour to a Prime Minister. Her peers
and Constitutional scholars demand it and will rebuke her is she
falters (again). In short, under the present atmosphere, an
Election is undeserved and far too expensive, and should only be
awarded should both Leaders of the Opposition Parties decline an
offer to form a Government. Of course this distasteful
scenario can easily be averted by our PM practicing political
maturity until October 2012.
In our broader
analysis, we welcome Bernard von Schulmann
(BC
Iconoclast)
as the eighth
available seat projection model for our monthly compilations.
Based on the conversion of
8 national polls conducted July 3 - Sept 4 2009
by 5 active models, the
governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early September
Election Campaign with a lead in 123 Ridings ... up from 118 thirty
days prior. Albeit Ignatieff's metric dropped from 116 to 111
Members, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will
take a permanent lead in fortunes from this point onward, and is
poised for an ultimate 180 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the
current Parliament in October 2012.
August
10th 2009:
Without
question the most exciting political event of the Summer break has
been Jack Layton's proposal to drop the "New" from NDP. It is
visionary and could resolve the Party's 4th place quagmire in the
long term. This strategy sheds the visible ties with its Socialist
roots and takes advantage of young/immigrant voter illiteracy to tie
its fortunes with the present wave of popularity of Obama's
Democratic Party. Failure to reignite the Party in this fashion
dooms the labour lobby group to an eventual merger with the Liberal
Party in a "unite the left" inevitability.
The
Liberal Party is no doubt recognizing its
missed opportunity in
June for triggering an Election and subsequent governance. Opposition
Leader Ignatieff failed to
seize an opportunity
where all news was bad news for the Conservative Party, and at a
peak. As TrendLines has been predicting for several months, the USA
is not headed for a Depression. Its Technical Recession became a
Severe Recession in August 2008. This contraction
ended in May 2009,
as will be announced by the NBER in January 2010. American auto &
new home sales have bottomed as foretold as well.
This bodes well for an
imminent Canadian economic recovery. Each succeeding month will
bring better news for Canada & the Conservatives.
Our Technical Recession started
August 2008, deteriorated to a Severe Recession in November.
bottomed in January 2009 has most probably ended last month.
Ignatieff was correct in reading that the electorate doesn't want an
Election. But, he shall regret that June decision over the coming
seasons as his numbers dwindle.
This puts at risk the
Liberal Party's long term momentum. The Leadership bump peaked in
April. Voters now appear to be in watchful-waiting mode, looking
for qualities of leadership, team building & nonpartisanship among
the two main Parties. They seem tired of the "gotcha" tactics and
general adversarial nonsense.
We welcome anonymous
modeler
CdnElectionWatch
as the seventh available model for our monthly compilations. The
governing Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical
early August Election Campaign with a lead in 118 Ridings ... up
from 113 in June. Albeit, Ignatieff fortunes have dropped from 122
to 116, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will
take a permanent lead in sentiment after August 2009, and is poised
for an ultimate 184 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current
Parliament in October 2012.
June 30th
2009:
This was a month where the Conservatives were besieged by a perfect
storm of bad news and events: rising unemployment, flu
buggery, sexy isotopes, an ominous $50+ Billion projected Deficit &
expansion of the leftist media's luv affair with Iggy. This
indeed was a missed opportunity for the new Opposition Leader.
It is difficult to imagine a better time for him to seize an
opportunity. As TrendLines has been predicting for several
months, the USA is not headed for a Depression. Its Technical
Recession became a Severe Recession in August 2008. This
contraction bottomed in March 2009, as will be announced by the NBER
in January 2010. American auto & new home sales have bottomed
as foretold as well.
This bodes well for an imminent Canadian economic recovery.
Each succeeding month will bring better news for Canada & the
Conservatives. Harper
has dodged the bullet ... more like a volley of scud missiles!
Ignatieff was correct in reading that the electorate doesn't want an
Election. But, he shall regret this decision over the next
year.
After a year, the prospects depend upon the outcome of long term
momentum. The Leadership bump peaked in April. Voters
appear to be in watchful-waiting mode, looking for qualities of
leadership, team building & nonpartisanship among the two main
Parties...
The governing
Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical late June
Election Campaign with a lead in only 112 Ridings ... up from 109 in
May. Ignatieff's momentum stalled in May, but still he could
have started the Writ period with a 123 seat lead. Long term
momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent lead
in sentiment after August 2009, and is poised for an ultimate 185 MP
Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012.
June 13th
2009:
As the
Opposition Leader prepares for his second "Probation Review" of the
Gov't, pollsters seem eager to assist with that endeavour with a
flurry of new surveys.
The previous Liberal leadership convention led to a 46-MP support bump by
December 2006 for Dion. Conversion of Spring 2009 national polls reveals
that new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff made a similar 52-MP gain.
Unfortunately for the Liberal Party, their recent move started from
a much lower core base, and Ignatieff is quagmired at 129-MPs whereas
the Liberals surged to 143 potential seats during Dion's rally.
The ruling Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical
mid-June Election Campaign with a lead in only 109 Ridings ... down
from 112 in
May. Ignatieff's momentum stalled in March, but still he could have
started the Writ period with a 129 seat lead. Long
term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent
lead in sentiment after August 2009, and is poised for an ultimate
190 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012. Our Election Day targets are of course vulnerable to
interim events en route and subject to the dynamics within an
ultimate Election Campaign. This includes interventions by
Party Leaders or membership to avert erosion of core support.
June 8th
2009:
The USA's Severe Recession
climaxed in March, paving the way for the
2009Q3 expansion long predicted by TrendLines Research. USA
New Home sales bottomed in January, good news for Canada's lumber
industry. Existing Home Prices
bottomed in January laying a
foundation for consumer spending in the USA and renewed trade with
Canada. Car & truck sales bottomed in February, a sigh of
relief for Ontario's auto sector. Albeit this will again be a
"jobless recovery", and the Unemployment Rate will drift
higher over the next 12 months, Confidence levels are already making
large gains.
This sets the stage for the next era of governing and an eventual
Election. The Gov't will point to rising GDP. The
leftist Media & the Opposition will highlight lingering sector
layoffs and continue to talk down the Canadian Economy. As
mentioned last month, the era
wherein Governor General Jean was more probable to offer governance
to the Leader of the Opposition rather than allow the PM's request
for another Election (upon a failed Confidence Vote) has expired.
The previous Liberal leadership convention led to a 46 MP support bump by
December 2006 for Dion. Conversion of Spring 2009 national polls reveals
that new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff made a similar 48 MP gain.
Unfortunately for the Liberal Party, their recent move started from
a much lower core base, and Ignatieff is quagmired at 125 whereas
the Liberals surged to 143 potential seats during Dion's rally.
The ruling Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical
early June Election Campaign with a lead in only 112 Ridings ... up from
109 in
April. Ignatieff's momentum stalled in March, but still he could have
started the Writ period with a 125 seat lead. Long
term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent
lead in sentiment after October 2009, and is poised for an ultimate
179 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012.
May 6th
2009:
30 weeks have passed since the October Election. The era
wherein Governor General Jean was more probable to offer governance
to the Leader of the Opposition rather than allow the PM's request
for another Election (upon a failed Confidence Vote) has expired.
Riding projections are no longer an academic exercise!
The previous Liberal leadership convention led to a 143 MP bump by
December 2006 for Dion. Conversion of April polls reveals
that albeit Stephen Harper continues to hemorrhage support, rather
little drifted to new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff over the last
month.
The ruling Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical
late April Election Campaign with a lead in only 109 Ridings ... down from
117 in
March. Ignatieff's momentum has stalled, but could have
started the Writ period with a 125 seat lead. Long
term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent
lead in sentiment after January 2010, and is poised for an ultimate
166 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012.
April 3rd
2009: (rev 9.0416)
The last Liberal leadership convention led to a 143 MP bump by
December 2007. Conversion of March polls reveals yet more
hemorrhaging of Harper & Layton support in favour of new Liberal
Leader Michael Ignatieff. A
reminder that it is improbable that Governor
General Jean will permit another Federal Election before July; and
even at that it would be the fourth in five years.
Regardless,
the Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical
late March Election Campaign with a lead in 117 Ridings ... down from 123 in
January. Ignatieff's momentum raised his count to 124 from
115. Long
term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent
lead in sentiment after July 2010, and is poised for an ultimate
151 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012.
Feb 12th 2009:
The last Liberal
leadership convention led to a 143 MP bump by December 2007.
Conversion of a flurry of early February polls reveals more
hemorrhaging of Harper & Layton support in favour of new Liberal
Leader Michael Ignatieff. A
reminder that it is improbable that Governor
General Jean will permit another Federal Election before July; and
even at that it would be the fourth in five years.
Regardless,
the Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical
early February
Election Campaign with a lead in 126 Ridings ... down from 134 in
January. OTOH, long
term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take the
lead in sentiment after June 2011, and is poised for an ultimate
130 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012.
Feb 7th 2009:
It is improbable that Governor
General Jean will permit another Federal Election before July; and
even at that it would be the fourth in five years. Regardless,
conversion of
February's first national poll reveals
more hemorrhaging of NDP support, and new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff
is the beneficiary. The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical
early February
Election Campaign with a lead in 130 Ridings ... down from 134 in
January. OTOH, long
term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take the
lead in sentiment after August 2011, and is poised for an ultimate
130 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012.
Feb
1st 2009:
Now that Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has placed the
Conservative Gov't on "probation", his March Review becomes the next
milepost in this session's political soap. Should PM Harper
fail to win Confidence at that juncture, the Governor General has
two options:
a)
offer governance to the Liberal Leader, who in turn can reincarnate
the Coalition or seek NDP & Bloc support for a Liberal led Accord;
b)
allow Harper to call the fourth General Election in less than five
years, a mere 7 months from the recent Writ.
Regardless of the irresponsibility of the latter scenario,
conversion of
January's national polls reveals a significant loss of support for
the governing Party since December, in favour of the NDP &
Liberals. The Conservative Party would have commenced a
hypothetical late January Election Campaign with a lead in 134
Ridings ... down from 160 in December. OTOH, long term momentum
indicates that the Liberal Party will take the sentiment lead in May
2012 and is poised for an ultimate 118 MP Minority victory upon
expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.
Jan 21st 2009:
As Budget Day approaches, it remains uncertain at this time whether
Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff will support the Conservatives,
revive the Dion Coalition Agreement or simply garner NDP & BQ
support for a Liberal-only Government.
It
is improbable that the Governor General would agree to a Harper
request for a fourth Federal Election in less than five years, upon a failed
Confidence vote. None-the-less, conversions of January's national polls reveal a significant turn
of sentiment towards the Liberals, especially in Quebec.
The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical mid-January
Election Campaign with a lead in 135 Ridings. OTOH, long
term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party is poised for an ultimate
119 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012.
TrendLines Research tracked 17
recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008 Election.
3 of these have been active Post Election, plus this week we
introduce a new practitioner: ÉrikG of (threehundredeight.com).
The "Jan 17th" data point is derived by averaging the results of 3 of these
models, in turn based on 5 national polls conducted Jan 3-17 2009.
Jan 19th 2009:
As Budget Day
approaches, it remains uncertain at this time whether Liberal Leader
Michael Ignatieff will support the Conservatives, revive the Dion
Coalition Agreement or simply garner NDP & BQ support for a
Liberal-only Government.
Albeit it
is improbable that the Governor General would agree to the prospect
of a fourth Federal Election in less than five years upon a failed
Confidence vote, conversion of January's national polls reveals a significant turn
of sentiment towards the Liberals, especially in Quebec.
The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical mid January
Election Campaign with a lead in 136 Ridings. OTOH, long
term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party is poised for an ultimate
slim 116 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012.
Jan 10th 2009:
Four weeks ago, PM
Stephen Harper averted losing governance to an Opposition Coalition
by proroguing Parliament. Should the January 27th Conservative
Budget fail, it is uncertain at this time whether Liberal Leader
Michael Ignatieff would revive the Dion Coalition Agreement or
simply garner NDP & BQ support for a Liberal-only Government.
Albeit it
is improbable that the Governor General would agree to the prospect
of a fourth Federal Election in less than five years, conversion of
the first two national polls (Ipsos Reid & Nanos) of 2009 reveals a significant turn
of sentiment towards the Liberals, especially in Quebec.
The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early January
Election Campaign with a lead in 124 Ridings. OTOH, long
term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party is poised for an ultimate
136 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October
2012.
Jan 9th 2009:
Four weeks ago, PM
Stephen Harper averted losing governance to an Opposition Coalition
by proroguing Parliament. Should the coming Conservative
Budget fail, it is uncertain at this time whether Liberal Leader
Michael Ignatieff would revive the Coalition Agreement or simply
garner NDP & BQ support for a Liberal-only Government.
Albeit it
is improbable that the Governor General would agree to the prospect
of a fourth Federal Election in less than five years, conversion of
the first national poll (Nanos) of 2009 reveals a significant turn
of sentiment towards Michael Ignatieff, especially in Quebec.
The Liberals would have commenced a hypothetical early January
Election Campaign with a lead in 136 Ridings. Further, long
term momentum indicates that the Liberals are poised for an ultimate
155 MP Majority upon the current Parliament's expiry in October
2012.
Dec
31 2008:
As the electorate
digests the Opposition maneuverings surrounding the potential
alliance of the Bloc Quebecois support of a Liberal-NDP Coalition,
it is clear that the Conservative Party has been the sentiment
beneficiary. But, the surveys continue to reveal
contradictions. Albeit the most recent national poll reveals
that voters favour the Coalition prospect, all of 'em show that
should either the alliance break down, or the Governor General
grants Stephen Harper's request for an Election upon a failed
Confidence vote, most Canadians favour the Conservative Party.
Stephen Harper's task in this
pre-Budget era involves adopting enuf left of center policy to
entice the passing of the money bills whilst not alienating the
right wing ideologues within his Party.
Today's
conversion by 2
Riding Projection models reveals
that the Conservatives have gained a slim Majority
lead after a brief downturn in November. The Conservative
prospects would seem to be academic as it is improbable
that another Election could occur 'til June 2009 at the earliest due to
the recency of a Writ.
TrendLines Research tracked
17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008
Election. 3 of these are currently active Post Election, and
the "Dec 27th"
data point is derived by averaging the results of two of those
models, which are in turn based on NIL canvassing surveys &
4 national polls conducted Dec
9-27 2008.
Dec
13 2008:
As the electorate
recovers from the torrid pace of events over the last few weeks and
weighs who the caretaker should be to guide us thru these tad
tougher economic times, the sentiment closely reflects the recent
Election. The Ignatieff bump comes via regaining much support
previously lost to the NDP, but in turn losing some core support to
the Conservatives.
Today's
conversion by 2
Riding Projection models of this week's Angus Reid & Ipsos Reid national polls reveals
that the Conservatives have gained a slim Majority
lead. The Conservative revival is academic as it is improbable
that another Election could occur 'til June at the earliest due to
the recency of a Writ.
Governor General Jean continues to
garner the wrath of constitutional scholars worldwide for her
acquiescence to the Prime Minister's request for prorogation of
Parliament. Methinx she has the message loud & clear that upon
a failed Confidence vote, she shall have no option but to award
governance to the Liberal/NDP Coalition. From this point,
Stephen Harper is master of his own demise.
TrendLines Research tracked
17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008
Election. 3 of these are currently active Post Election, and
the "Dec 12th"
data point is derived by averaging the results of two of those
models, which are in turn based on NIL canvassing surveys & 2 national polls conducted Dec
9-12 2008.
Dec
9 2008:
As they say, what a difference a day makes, eh! Dion is out.
Rae is out. Ignatieff is in. With Canadians reassured
that the Coalition is now just a hammer ... not an inevitability,
the landscape is fundamentally changed. Voters foresee that a
Coalition is less probable under Ignatieff, but should that scenario
unfold, it will have a firm hand, and not the scarier prospect of a
socialist tribunal guided by Rae, Layton & Duceppe. The
outlook for a Harper landslide next Spring has been extinguished.
With this turn of events, today's
conversion by 2
Riding Projection models of the weekend's pertinent Angus Reid national poll reveals
that the Conservatives continue to be ahead, but by the slimmest of
leads. The Liberal windfall also comes at the expense of the
NDP.
TrendLines Research tracked
17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008
Election. 3 of these are currently active Post Election, and
the "Dec 6th"
data point is derived by averaging the results of two of those
models, which are in turn not based on canvassing, but rather
1 national polls conducted Dec 5-6 2008.
Dec
8 2008:
Canadian & International convention with respect to the Westminster
Parliamentary system deems it improbable that a Federal Election
shall be held prior to June 2009. Regardless, the Liberal
Party seems intent on replacing Stéphane Dion just in case the
Governor General surprises all concerned by ignoring the recency
factor and allowing Stephen Harper a snap Election upon failure of
the 2009 Budget or other Confidence motions.
Upon that prospect, today's
conversion by 3
Riding Projection models of 6 early-December national polls reveals
the Conservatives would enjoy a landslide victory in a Spring
Election based on current sentiment.
TrendLines Research tracked
17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008
Election. 3 of these are currently active Post Election, and
the "Dec 6th"
data point is derived by averaging their results which are in turn not based on canvassing, but rather
6 national polls conducted Dec 2-6 2008.
The "Nov"
data point was similarly based on 2 models converting
2 national polls conducted Nov 11-29 2008.
Dec
6 2008: Well,
what a difference a week makes, eh! Prime Minister Harper
dodged a bullet by seeking a prorogation of Parliament, thus
avoiding a sure-to-fail Confidence vote. But in so doing, such
a public outrage has developed surrounding the possibility of a
ruling Opposition Coalition, that the Conservative fortunes have
taken them from an embarrassing 113 potential MPs in November to an
astonishing 204 this week. In turn, the Dion's Liberals go
from 116 to a mere 39 MPs. Regardless of the Coalition being a
legal ploy, folks are really troubled by this eventuality.
Ironically, this degree of punishment would see the Bloc resume
their role as Her Majesty's Official Opposition.
There are rumours that
Liberal MPs are circulating a petition to have Dion step down by the
next Caucus meeting. With public sentiment this one-sided, it
is improbable that the Opposition will attempt to defeat the January
27th Budget. But ... just in case this happens, Party
Officials don't like the prospect of going to the electorate with
Dion at the helm. IMHO, it is not likely that Governor Genera
Jean will grant Harper an Election upon non-Confidence. It
will have been 14 weeks since the 2008 contest. But to be
prudent, the Liberals gotta do what they gotta do.
The Liberal leadership
contest finally has its wedge issue. Rae is stalwart
pro-Coalition. Ignatieff seems to be back pedaling, and
allowing Harper some "wiggle room' in case this proposition turns
south, recognizing that he doesn't want to be on the wrong side of
public opinion.
Getting back to
our second post-Election Seat Projection:
Today's
conversion by 2
Riding Projection models of 4 early December national polls
(Leger, Ipsos Reid, EKOS & COMPAS) reveals the current status:
43 BQ, 204 Conservatives,
39 Liberals,
20 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs (Que & NS). With the
improbability of an Autumn Election, long term momentum indicates
these targets for the fixed Election in 2012: 63 BQ, 157 Conservatives,
51 Liberals,
35 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs. These standings are of course
vulnerable to the dynamics of an ultimate Election Campaign and
interim events.
The "Dec 4th"
data point is derived by averaging
2 of
17 recognized post-2006
Riding Projection models. These recent
model results
are not based on canvassing, but rather
4 national polls
conducted Dec 2-4 2008.
The "Nov"
data point is derived by averaging
2 of
17 recognized post-2006
Riding Projection models. These recent
model results
are not based on canvassing, but rather
2 national polls
conducted Nov 11-29 2008.
Nov 29 2008:
We're back!! Regular TrendLiners won't be surprised that the
tracking is back on. It was no secret that i was sincerely
troubled by Stephen Harper's decision to ignore his own fixed
election legislation. I considered his request for a Writ an
illegal action. One that would yield a heavy price when
Parliament resumed. The absence of an outcry by the Opposition
Parties meant "the trap" was set...
Let's recall my
pre-Writ and mid-Campaign analysis:
|
Sept 1st
It is probable that an Injunction
will be sought to prevent the Prime Minister taking the
opportunistic step of calling an Election in the absence of a
failed Confidence Vote in the House of Commons. Should Stephen
Harper call an Election under these distasteful circumstances, it is
probable that in the event of a Minority situation in October, the
Opposition Parties will unite in a formal Coalition and request the
Governor General to award them Governance. If she resists, an
immediate non-Confidence Vote upon the resumption of Parliament
would ensue and resolve this nasty episode. |
|
Sept 2nd:
It is very probable that an Injunction
will be sought to prevent the Prime Minister taking the
opportunistic step of calling an Election in the absence of a
failed Confidence Vote in the House of Commons. It was his own
legislation that was to prevent ruling Govt's from calling Elections "on a whim".
Should Stephen
Harper call an Election under these distasteful circumstances, it is
probable that the Opposition have an elaborate trap in store ...
hence the feint furor. In the event of a Minority situation in October, the
Opposition Parties will likely unite in a formal Coalition and request the
Governor General to award them Governance. If she resists, an
immediate non-Confidence Vote upon the resumption of Parliament
would ensue and resolve this nasty episode. Only a Majority
will save the Conservatives from losing governance ... and that
prospect is doubtful.
|
|
Oct 2nd:
With only 12
days to go, the hemorrhaging seems to have taken a pause as the two
nites of Leaders Debates are upon us. Congrat's to Democracy
Watch on taking up our
Aug 30th proposal for injunctive action. They are
headed to Federal Court to challenge PM Harper's illegal Election
Writ; specifically its failure to be preceded by a Confidence vote
in the HofC. It is unlikely that the Election will be set
aside, but in a measure of just retribution, it is very probable (as
we proposed on Sept 1st) that the combined Opposition
Parties will approach the Governor General to express their lack of
Confidence in another Conservative Minority and will propose that
they be allowed form a Gov't Coalition. If she balks, the
action will be repeated after the first Confidence vote upon recall
of Parliament at which time she will have no alternative but to
oblige. We are humbled to see that the Coalition issue was
added to the Leaders Debate. |
 It will also be recalled that each of
our Daily Charts from Sept 24th included a "Coalition
tally".
As the world unfolded
as predicted this week, it seems only internal spats within the
Liberal Party can derail this scenario. Some don't want
Stéphane Dion as PM; some fear a Cndn Dollar and/or TSE Index
collapse upon rumours of Jack Layton positioning himself to be
Finance Minister as part of the Coalition.
The actions taken on Friday were a
delayed reaction due to the Liberals being distracted by their own
lynching intentions. Being a Minority, the Harper Cabinet was
sworn in this month at the pleasure of the Opposition. By
Westminster conventions, the responsibility of Governance can be
taken away at any time. The Governor General will have no
basis in law or convention for disallowing the request of the
Opposition to resume governance as the majority camp of MPs.
They can propose two alternatives:
a Coalition (NDP & Liberals share Cabinet positions) that excludes
the Bloc Quebecois for public relations realities; or a ruling
Opposition whereby the BQ & NDP agree (verbally via House Leaders or
in written agreement) to support the Liberals as the replacement
Gov't. The Bloc appear willing to either scenario at this
time.
The Governor General has the
responsibility of handing over governance to the group of MPs that
has the Confidence of the majority of MPs. Today, that is
clearly the 163 Opposition MPs (77-L, 49-BQ & 37-NDP) vs the failed
145 Gov't side MP(143-C & 2 Indept's). She has no options in
law or by convention. An Election is out of the question due
to recency.
Anyway, i digress ... so let's get to
the first post-Election Seat Projection:
Today's
conversion by 2
Riding Projection models of the initial post-Election national poll
(Nanos) reveals the current status:
47 BQ, 103 Conservatives, 114 Liberals,
42 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs (Que & NS). With the
improbability of an Autumn Election, long term momentum indicates
these targets for the fixed Election in 2012: 66 BQ, 52 Conservatives, 128 Liberals,
60 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs. These standings are of course
vulnerable to the dynamics of an ultimate Election Campaign and
interim events.
The "Nov"
data point is derived by averaging
2 of
17 recognized post-2006
Riding Projection models. These recent
model results
are not based on canvassing, but rather
1 national poll
conducted Nov 11-15 2008.
This month's results are based on our own applications of the H&K Predictor
and the Antweiler Matrix Forecaster, followed by a final overlay of our
Long Term Momentum Indicator.
xxx
2008 Pre-Election Blog |
2011/May Canada
2012/Nov 
2013/
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