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Trendlines Research  ...   Long-Term multi-disciplinary Perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989
 
 Future: 2009/May Canada BC 2010 UK   2011 Canada Ontario   2011 Canada Nfld/Lab   2012 Canada     2012 Race for the Whitehouse    
 Past: 2008 Canada Quebec 2008/Nov Race for the Whitehouse 2008/Oct Canada 2008 Race for the Kremlin 2008 Pakistan 2007 Australia 2007 Canada Ontario 2007 Canada Nfld/Lab 2007 Canada Quebec 2006 Canada Yukon 2006 Canada 2004 Race for the Whitehouse 2004 Canada
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Seat Projections ~ 2009 BC Provincial Election

 what's new, eh?

[New!]  MP Seat Projection for 2010 UK General Election for the House of Commons ~ Conservative Party Poised for Governance, with Renewed Momentum

[New!]  Current MP Riding Projection plus Momentum Trend for the 2012 Canadian Election

 

May 13th ~ The Liberal Party has a 49-36 Majority victory over the NDP.  Tentative Congrat's to Nick Boragina (52), Milton Chan (46) & Kennedy Stewart (52) on their excellent projections!!  They bettered TrendLines multi-model AVG (53) last nite.  Similarly, Congrat's to Glen Robbins for the most accurate opinion poll...

Of interest:  Indep't Vicki Huntington lost by only two votes.  None of the Greens garnered 4,000 votes.

May 11th (10pm) ~ Gordon Campbell goes into tomorrow's Election with a 53-32 lead over the NDP, as indicated by the average of 7 seat projection models and their analysis of polls and  canvassing to May 10th.

The final tally for the Liberal Party includes:  Milton Chan - 46, Nick Boragina - 52, Kennedy Stewart - 52, Freddy Hutter via Hill & Knowlton Predictor - 54, Bernard von Schulmann - 55, Freddy Hutter via Antweiler Voter Migration Matrix (AVVM) - 57 & Freddy Hutter's Long-Term Momentum Indicator - 58.

A word about track records since 2004:  Over that past 4 major Elections (Federal & Ontario), it is the TrendLines multi-model average (53) that has the most accurate track record of all the WWWeb-available projection methods.  OTOH, in the most recent Campaign (October Federal Election), it was our application of the AVMM (57) that performed best.  Based on past performance, we have low confidence in our trials of the H&K Predictor (57) and LTMI (58).  Considering all, the prospect for 53 - 57 Liberal MPs being elected would seem assured.

Today's "May 11th" status reflects practitioner canvassing plus conversion of 6 Provincial polls conducted April 29-May 11 2009 by 7 models.

April data points reflect practitioner canvassing & conversion of 4 Provincial polls conducted April 1-26 2009 by 7 models.

March data points reflect practitioner canvassing & conversion of 3 Provincial polls conducted March 10-25 2009 by 4 models.

The conversions from the 2005 Election to November 2008 reflect our own applications of the Antweiler Voter Migration Matrix and the Hill & Knowlton Predictor.  The December 2008 to May conversions are an Avg of 7 available models:  Nick Boragina (nixtuff), Milton Chan (Election Prediction Project), David MacDonald (nodice), Bernard von Schulmann (BC  Iconoclast), Kennedy Stewart (sfu) plus our own two number crunches via Antweiler and Hill & Knowlton.  The running May 12th Election Day targets were derived by a final overlay of TrendLines Long-Term Momentum Indicator.

These are our most recent free charts ... please click a graph or the specialty links below for more charts & discussion

 

( 2009)

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3 ways to join the MemberVenue:

Annual-Membership special of $15/month  or  via $20/month Quarterly access or $50 Project-fee

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MemberVenue:   PeakOil   Economics   ClimateChange   Elections

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Trendlines Research  ...   Long-Term multi-disciplinary Perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989
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