May 13th ~ The Liberal Party has a 49-36
Majority victory over the NDP. Tentative Congrat's to Nick
Boragina (52), Milton Chan (46) & Kennedy Stewart (52) on their
excellent projections!! They bettered TrendLines multi-model
AVG (53) last nite.
to Glen Robbins for the most accurate opinion poll...
Indep't Vicki Huntington lost by only two votes. None of the
Greens garnered 4,000 votes.
May 11th (10pm) ~ Gordon Campbell
goes into tomorrow's Election with a 53-32 lead over the NDP, as indicated by the average of
7 seat projection models
and their analysis of polls and canvassing to May 10th.
The final tally for
the Liberal Party includes: Milton Chan - 46, Nick Boragina -
52, Kennedy Stewart
- 52, Freddy Hutter via Hill & Knowlton
Predictor - 54, Bernard von Schulmann - 55, Freddy Hutter via
Antweiler Voter Migration Matrix (AVVM) - 57 & Freddy Hutter's
Long-Term Momentum Indicator - 58.
A word about track records since
2004: Over that past 4 major Elections (Federal & Ontario), it
is the TrendLines multi-model average
(53) that has the
most accurate track record of all
the WWWeb-available projection methods. OTOH, in the most
recent Campaign (October Federal Election), it was our application of
the AVMM (57) that performed best. Based on past performance,
we have low confidence in our trials of the H&K Predictor (57) and
LTMI (58). Considering all, the prospect for 53 - 57 Liberal MPs
being elected would seem assured.
11th" status reflects practitioner canvassing plus conversion of
6 Provincial polls conducted April 29-May 11 2009 by 7 models.
April data points
reflect practitioner canvassing & conversion of 4
Provincial polls conducted April 1-26 2009 by 7 models.
March data points
reflect practitioner canvassing & conversion of 3
Provincial polls conducted March 10-25 2009 by 4 models.
from the 2005 Election to November 2008 reflect our own applications
of the Antweiler Voter Migration Matrix and the Hill & Knowlton Predictor. The December
2008 to May conversions are an Avg of
7 available models: Nick Boragina (nixtuff), Milton Chan (Election Prediction
MacDonald (nodice), Bernard von
Iconoclast), Kennedy Stewart (sfu) plus our own
two number crunches via Antweiler and Hill & Knowlton. The
running May 12th Election Day targets were derived by a final overlay of TrendLines Long-Term