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 Politics ~ Election Projections ~    Australia
 
 Future:     2011/Oct Canada Ontario   2011/Oct Canada Nfld/Lab   2012 Canada   2012 Canada Quebec   2012/Nov Race for the Whitehouse   2013/May Canada BC   2015/May UK
 Past: 2010/Aug Australia 2010/May UK 2009/May Canada BC 2008 Canada Quebec 2008/Nov Race for the Whitehouse 2008/Oct Canada 2008 Race for the Kremlin 2008 Pakistan 2007 Australia 2007 Canada Ontario 2007 Canada Nfld/Lab 2007 Canada Quebec 2006 Canada Yukon 2006 Canada 2004 Race for the Whitehouse 2004 Canada
   

 

 
 What's New, eh!  

[New!]  MP Riding Projection for the 2012 Canadian Federal Election

[New!]econ ~ Monthly update of TrendLines Realty Bubble Monitor Australia $82,000, UK 77,000, Canada $77,000 & USA $2,000

 

 

Sept 27th ~ Satisfied she can count on support from the Gang of Five to pass Confidence-related legislation and maintain Command of the House, Julia Gillard will attempt to govern despite her Minority status.


Aug 21st 2010 4pm PST:  With just three seats left in close counts, the tentative results are 72 Labor, 73 Nat/Lib Coalition, 4 Indept's & 1 Green.  The Coalition received the highest popular vote and the Indies have a certain right wing leaning.  Tony Abbott is competing with Julia Gillard in recruiting the Gang-of-5 before approaching the Gov-Gen with a proposal to form the new Government.

Aug 21st 2010:  Today's "final" final projection combines our forecast (78-L 69-C 3-others) with 3 other active models by Bowe (79), Jackman (75) & Steel (74).  The blended projection sees 77-L, 70-C & 3-others.  Today is election day.

Aug 17th 2010:  Daily polls during the campaign have been a tad more volatile than the monthly tracking implies, but still Gillard maintains her overall momentum with an 81-66 lead.

July 25th 2010:  It's the first week of the snap writ and the first seat projection is in.  Julia Gillard's Labour Party leads Tony Abbott's Liberal-National Coalition by 88-59, with 3 Indies making up the rest.  The election will be Aug 21st.

 

 

 

 

 

 


Amanda Bishop as Julia Gillard.

click Julia Gillard for background on her new video!

 

Seat Projection for Nov 24th 2007  Australian Federal Election:

Sunday Dec 16  5pm (oztime) Update to above chart:  TrendLines Count Projection -   Coalition 65,  2 Indies;  Labour 83 (with max upside potential of 85)

William Bowe & Andrew Leigh looking brilliant thus far ... 3 seats still in doubt with a 94% count.  Scroll down to see how each of the 9 Seat Projection pundits fared.  We have a scoreboard below!


Above, the Nov 24 chart pre-Election status of 88/60/2 (and all figures since the 2004 Election) are the compiled avg of available recognized Riding Projections.  Each projection model has its own methodology of converting polling/canvassing data to estimates of winnable Seats by the Parties.  The final "today" conversion is based on all 9 prediction models and their analysis of recognized polling/canvassing completed Nov 1 - 23.

Nov 21  2007:  As the campaign winds down, it's again time to bring out our Scoreboard.  While there are lotsa predictions floating around, membership is limited to those who provided regular Seat number crunching guidance during the current Campaign.  Please hit me with an email if i missed a recognized player or made an error.  Honourable mention to Antony Green for providing many of the models with his Seat Calculator!  And my thanx to all...

How did the Riding Projection models fare?

  ACTUAL

80% of count

Australian Election 2007

  William Bowe

PollBludger

Peter Brent

Mumble

Simon Jackman

Stanford

Geoff Lambert

PollBludger

Andrew Leigh

PortlandBet

Malcolm Mackerras

NSW

Bryan Palmer

OzPolitics

Kevin

 Possum

Aristotle

FairNews

TrendLines 9-model Avg
Labor 84 89 81 97 82 90 88 87 93 88 83
Coalition 64 59 67 51 66 58 60 61 55 60 65
Indies/other 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
77777777777777777777777777777777777777777777
Riding Errors:   2 12 4 28 2 14 10 8 20 10 Cndn scores
Rating: "1" 7 "3" 10 "1" 8 5 4 9 5

Nov 24  2007  10am:  To prevent the advantage of exit polling taints, we've shut down the grid.  It's up to the voters now...

Nov 17  2007:  Little movement in the latter stages.  Voters have seen the Debate and perused the platforms.  Now they pause & reflect at the edge of the precipice...

Nov 13  2007:  Folks from the land down under comprise our 5th largest audience of TrendLiners and so it was with great pleasure that we introduced this weekly tracking of the Australian Federal Election set for Nov 24th.

The Australian Parliament has a 150-seat House of Representatives with half the members seeking re-election every three years.  The 76-seat Senate has 40 members seeking office next week.  Prime Minister John Howard presently leads a coalition of the Liberal Party & National Party, having 87 seats in the H-of-R & 39 in the Senate.  Kevin Rudd leads the Labor Party with its 60 members and is poised to gain victory next Saturday in the compulsory vote.


Our 2007 projections are based on a blending of 8 Seat Projection Models (by William Bowe, Peter Brent, Simon Jackman, Geoff Lambert, Andrew Leigh, Malcolm Mackerras, Bryan Palmer & Kevin "Possum" & "Aristotle" ... all who do stellar work for little recognition).  Their studies involve the conversion of sentiment revealed in Canvassing and/or published national/regional Public Opinion Poll data (with avg 3% margin of error) into Projections of how many members each Party would win at the time the data was taken (not Election Day).

Over 50 post-2004 Election polls have been crunched by some of the models for the pre-Campaign tallies; Most of the models' conversions apply the Election Calculator designed by Antony Green.  Please note that fine tuning of the models sometimes affects older figures on the chart and several chart values have been deleted for clarity.  Only the Yukon Projection includes direct polling by TrendLines.  Scroll around or use the menu for our "Race for the Kremlin", Canadian Federal, Ontario, Newfoundland/Labrador, Quebec, Yukon, UK & "Race for the Whitehouse" projections.



These are our most recent free charts ... please click a graph or the specialty links below for more charts & discussion

 

( 2007)

~
3 ways to join the MemberVenue:

Annual-Membership special of $15/month  or  via $20/month Quarterly access or $50 Project-fee

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About    Contact

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Let's keep the site ad free ... please consider subscribing to the MemberVenue or a donation to assist my research!

FreeVenue:   PeakOil   Economics   ClimateChange   Elections

Beware ... the Lunatic Fringe

MemberVenue:   PeakOil   Economics   ClimateChange   Elections

  Canada Flag
Trendlines Research  ...   Long-Term multi-disciplinary Perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989
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