3 ways to join the MemberVenue:

$25/month Annual Membership  or  $35/month Quarterly  Membership or  $50 Project Access-fee

password reminder

About    Contact

Media Access

Speaking Engagements

Let's keep the site ad free ... please consider subscribing to the MemberVenue or a donation to assist my research!

FreeVenue:   PeakOil   Economics   ClimateChange   Elections

Beware ... the Lunatic Fringe

MemberVenue:   PeakOil   Economics   ClimateChange   Elections

  Canada Flag
Trendlines Research  ...  Providing macro-economic charts & guidance for Legislators, Policymakers, Investors & Stakeholders
long-term multi-disciplinary perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989

FreeVenue Home • Peak Oil • Economics • Climate Change • Elections

 Economics  @  FreeVenue

FreeVenue Economics-Home • Realty Bubbles Monitor • G-20 Recessions Monitor • TRI Canada • TRI China • TRI USA • Real Unemployment Rate USA • Debt Wall USA

  TRENDLines Recession Indicator - China TRI venue

|

Google TRANSLATOR     United States Flag United Kingdom Flag Australia Flag France Flag Germany Flag Spain Flag Italy Flag Japan Flag India Flag Singapore Flag  I'm pleased to tell TRENDLiners this past Summer 85% of visitors were International (120 nations:  most from USA, UK, Australia, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan, India & Singapore)

  My status

clik to follow @TrendlinesDotCa for new chart alerts

Members & Media with query/comments are welcome to email or  skype   me (freddyhutter) for chats, phone & video-cam

FreeVenue TRI China chart is generally posted 90-days after the guidance release at the MemberVenue

Please Donate & let's keep the site ad free...

   

 

 

 Quarterly update of Trendlines Recession Indicator for China  (TRI China)

   
  see also:   USA Trendlines Recession Indicator  monthly update  (TRI USA)
  see also:   Canadian TRENDLines Recession Indicator  monthly update (TRI Canada)
  see also:  G-20 Recessions Monitor
   
 

 

. 90 days too long to wait?  View our current guidance charts via:  (a) Annual-membership special of $25/month or (b) $35/month Quarterly membership or (c) $50 project access-fee

TRI China GDP targets  (2013/6/10)

archived 2013 & 2012 TRI China charts available only @ MemberVenue

2012Q1 6.5 %

TRI methodology ~ the TRENDLines Recession Indicator uses proprietary heuristic algorithms to transform proxy economic data into an insightful Real GDP baseline thru 2020 filtered of reporting period noise.  Layered over these animal-spirits-plus results are the nuances derived from the TRENDLines Barrel Meter & TRI-USA model projections.  The uniqueness of its methodology minimizes false-positive & false-negative Recession signals.

Economic data releases often include updates of past years & decades and these serve to recalibrate past TRI.  And TRI is dynamic:  long-term forward looking economic data & animal spirits are eventually amended by the medium term data which in turn is revised by short-term indicators.  The TRI benchmarks are recalibrated regularly upon revisions to past data.  See the MemberVenue chart archives to view original output.  The incremental revisions observable in sequential charts can be as insightful as current figures by noting the pattern of change over time.

timely & accurate guidance and research notes ~ the dashed maroon line depicts the QY/Y (quarterly year-over-year) Real GDP as released by the Central People's Gov't of China and reported by mainstream news services.  China remains among one of the last jurisdictions to measure GDP in the antiquated QY/Y fashion.  Its 14% to 8% range smoothes the seasonal amplitudes to the degree that virtually all contractions are masked and explains why 6% growth is considered by many pundits as "hard-landing territory".  Reporting in the same QY/Y manner expresses the USA contraction as -3.7% (rather than -8.9%) and the European Union's to -5.3% (from -11.1%).

the red line depicts the same Real GDP data but converted to the conventional Q/Q (quarter-over-quarter annualized) used in the USA, Canada & most other jurisdictions.  It gives a better appreciation of the annual cyclicality masked by QY/Y (the dashed line), widens the range to 16% & 6% and exposes probable double-counting & seasonal adjustment errors in CPG's data collection.  The IMF Team has assisted immensely in improving the methodology since 2007.

the blue line (TRI) is TRENDLines Research's proprietary measure of broad economic data which strives to filter the double-counting errors, ranges from 16% to 2% and via animal-spirits-plus provides a future outlook thru to 2020 ... updated monthly.  Stay tuned to TRENDLines for the very best in timely, accurate & dynamic outlook guidance...

caveats ~ The TRI outlook is dynamic and subject to and guided by geopolitical issues, weather events & natural disaster plus future mitigation activity by the Peoples Bank of China & the Central Peoples Gov't via monetary/fiscal policy.

2012Q2 6.7 %
2012Q3 6.7 %
2012Q4 6.9 %
2012 6.7%  
2013Q1 7.2%  (high)
2013Q2 7.1%
2013Q3 6.8 %
2013Q4 6.8 %
2013 7.0%  
2014 6.7%  
2015 6.7%  
2016 6.6%  
2017 6.5%  
2018 6.5%  
2019 6.4%  
2020 6.4% (low)
no business cycle     soft-landing indicated

  JPMorgan

 China & India both en route to be World's Largest Economy  ~ Measured in USDollars, the Chinese economy was $8.3 trillion in 2012.  Almost equal to its rapid economic growth has been its currency exchange rate appreciation.  The Yuan has improved 25% against the USD (8.1 to 6.1) in the past decade and even more measured against other G-8 currencies.  This headway shall continue under pressure by the WTO and China's major trading partners.  Upon attaining $21 trillion Nominal GDP in 2020, TRENDLines Research projects China will overtake the USA and become once again the globe's largest economy.  In turn, superior demographics in India and similarly improving currency exchange rates should result in $73 trillion GDP in 2037 and its overtaking of China to regain the premiere spot.

 TRI China Projects 6.8% GDP for rest of 2013

Sept 10 2013 delayed FreeVenue public release of June 10th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's Trendlines Recession Indicator monthly update reveals the momentum of thirteen months of incrementally rising economic growth appears to have crested in April and may have entered an era of secular decline as the new Gov't implements planned reforms amid a maturing economy.

China's official data released in April infers March (1Q13) Real GDP was 6.4% (Q/Q), down from an 8.1% pace in December (Q4).  Conversely, TRI's monthly gauge of economic activity found Q1 to be a robust 7.2% (Q/Q), up from 6.9 in the previous quarter.  TRI's monthly gauge of early proxy data June (Q2) to be 7.1%, down from 7.2% in May.  The model's measure of animal-spirits-plus indicates a 6.8% pace for both Q3 & Q4.

Albeit this year's 7.0% annual growth rate is up from 6.7% in 2012, China-specific headwinds should see GDP slip back to 6.7% in 2014 & incrementally recede to 6.4% by 2020.  There is no evidence of a soft-landing within the 2020 visible horizon.

June 10 2013 Recession Alert:  After recovering from a 3.4% trough during the global Great Recession, China's Real GDP pace has settled into a narrow 7.5%-6.0% channel.  The Trendlines Recession Indicator projects China-specific headwinds will damp the annual growth rate from this year's 7.0% to a respectable 6.4% by decade end.  In an 2.1% Inflation environment and a 5.9% prime rate in its Monetary Policy tool box, there's no evidence of a soft-landing within the 2020 visible horizon.

The trajectory will change, no doubt, as Inflation and Inventory factors come into play.  Then layered over those natural business cycles will be external issues and the mitigation efforts via Monetary Policy & Fiscal Policy as determined by the People's Bank of China & the Central Peoples Gov't.

China has two strategic advantages going forward.  Sitting on $3.2 trillion of foreign exchange reserves plus its gold, it has proved means to invest in public infrastructure when fiscal policy stimulus is merited.  It also possesses the conditions for effecting conventional monetary policy:  the combination of low (2.1%) Inflation and a high Prime Lending Rate (5.85%).

Very few G-20 nations have the ability today to lower further their prime rate to stimulate the private sector w/o fear of spawning excessive inflation in doing so.  Worse, many countries need to borrow funds today just to keep the phone and lights on, thus lacking the opportunity to invest in strategic infrastructure projects.

In the aftermath of the Games and the Great Recession, a shared steady hand on the tiller by the PBoC and the CPG has visibly moderated the amplitude of annual cycles by every measure.  The Gov't appears to have finally eliminated most of the errors in its GDP data collection associated with apparent double-counting and seasonal adjustments.  Cyclical crests were especially high in the prelude to the 2008 Beijing Olympics with reported Real GDP growth rate setting a mark of 15.7% Q/Q in 2007Q2 (compare to USA 16.7% high 1978Q2).

While most of the G-20 faced critical contractions in 2008Q4, China sported a surprising 3.4% TRI pace.  Seeing time was of the essence, China's recovery is credited to a massive $586 billion fiscal stimulus announced already in Nov/2008 (3 months prior to USA).  Being ahead of the curve, the action hoisted GDP to a lofty 11.4% by Aug/2009 ... higher and faster than all other G-20 nations.

 Potential Headwinds  Factors which could eventually contribute to short/medium/long term weakness shown in the TRI outlook incl:  (a) a rising exchange rate for the Yuan; (b) rising inflation;  & (c) aging society demographics

 Currency  ~ An ever-rising Yuan will indeed make some Chinese exports more expensive, but in some sectors this will be offset by decreased costs for import inputs and commodity acquisition to maintain competitive advantage.

 Inflation  ~ China's rate of urbanization is slowing and albeit not likely to level out at 67% 'til 2030, a slowing of the influx of rural workers will certainly augment wage pressures.  Industrial wages have tripled in the past twelve years.  This factor is already creating opportunities for periphery nations (e.g. Vietnam & Bangladesh).  Those external pressures have resulted in manufacturing wage inflation declining to only 5% this year.

 Demographics  ~ The working-aged population to retired-aged ratio continues to deteriorate due to multi-decadal adherence to China's official one-child policy.  That said, just under 2 million/month are involved in urbanization ... 250 million to be re-settled by 2025.

For comparison purposes, the chart illustrates official China GDP data expressed both as QY/Y (same quarter year-over-year) & Q/Q (qtr-over-qtr). The former is an antiquated reporting method still in use by China and the latter is the conventional metric used in the USA, Canada & most other jurisdictions. To give vivid context to the extent of the smoothing issue, using QY/Y format on USA GDP data yields a -4.6% Great Recession trough, rather than the familiar -8.9% rate.  Similarly, the Eurozone trough was -5.3% QY/Y & -11.1% Q/Q.

TRI's proprietary measure of broad economic data filters out the reporting period noise.  The IMF team has assisted immensely in correcting the double-counting and seasonal adjustment errors within the official Chinese real GDP data collection since 2007.

Trendlines Research takes pride in its overwhelming task of securing raw Q/Q data for its chart presentation. This methodology is employed in all three of its Recession Indicators (Canada/China/USA) for its superior reflection of the quarterly pace of economic activity and is the preferred metric for international comparisons.

~

Superb accuracy and timeliness make the TRENDLines Recession Indicator the premiere composite leading economic indicator available for Canada, China & USA

Top

 TRENDLines Recession Indicator - China TRI venue 

FreeVenue Economics-Home • Realty Bubbles Monitor • G-20 Recessions Monitor • TRI Canada • TRI China • TRI USA • Real Unemployment Rate USA • Debt Wall USA

 Economics  @  FreeVenue 

FreeVenue Home • Peak Oil • Economics • Climate Change • Elections

( 1989-2013)

~
3 ways to join the MemberVenue:

$25/month Annual Membership  or  $35/month Quarterly  Membership or  $50 Project Access-fee

password reminder

About    Contact

Media Access

Speaking Engagements

Let's keep the site ad free ... please consider subscribing to the MemberVenue or a donation to assist my research!

FreeVenue:   PeakOil   Economics   ClimateChange   Elections

Beware ... the Lunatic Fringe

MemberVenue:   PeakOil   Economics   ClimateChange   Elections

  Canada Flag
Trendlines Research  ...  Providing macro-economic charts & guidance for Legislators, Policymakers, Investors & Stakeholders
long-term multi-disciplinary perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989
send email to charts@Trendlines.ca with questions, comments or navigation corrections with respect to this web site[Under Construction]
Copyright 1989-2013 Trendlines Research ~
Last modified: November 03, 2013