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 G-20 Recessions Monitor

 

 

 

[New!]  TRENDLines G-20 Recessions Monitor

 

   see also:   monthly update of TRENDLines Recession Indicator  (USA-TRI)

   see also:   Monthly update of TRENDLines Recession Indicator  (Canada-TRI)

   see also:[New!]  Trendlines Recession Indicator ~ China TRI

   see also:  monthly update of TRENDLines Realty Bubble Monitor Australia,   Canada,   UK  &   USA

 

 

 90 days too long to wait?  View our current guidance charts via:  (a) Annual-membership special of $20/month or (b) $23/month Quarterly access or (c) $50 project-fee

Global GDP:  Year 2007  5.4%     Year 2008  2.8%     Year 2009  -0.6%   > Year 2010  5.3%     Year 2011  3.9%     Year 2012  3.5% (pending)     Year 2013  3.9% (est)>

 

2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4

2012Q1

2012Q2 2012Q3
3.2% 1.7% -0.3% -7.0% -5.8% 4.3% 5.4% 5.3% 6.6% 5.1% 4.0% 4.5% 3.7% 3.2% 3.6% 2.6% 3.6% 2.9% 3.9% est

G-20 nations in Technical or Severe Recession:

 USA

 

21% of Global GDP

USA Japan Germany France Italy

38% of Global GDP

USA Japan Germany France Italy

38% of Global GDP

USA Japan Germany UK France Italy Mexico

43% of Global GDP

USA    Japan Germany UK     Russia France Brazil   Italy Canada Turkey Mexico SouthAfrica

53% of   Global        GDP

USA    Japan Germany UK     Russia France Brazil   Italy Canada Turkey Mexico SouthAfrica

53% of   Global        GDP

UK     Russia  Italy Canada SouthAfrica Turkey

27% of Global GDP

UK Turkey Russia

8% of Global GDP

Russia

3% of Global GDP

Russia

3% of Global GDP

nil

Japan

8% of Global GDP

Japan

8% of Global GDP

Japan

8% of Global GDP

Japan Italy

9% of Global GDP

Japan UK Italy

12% of Global GDP

UK Italy

6% of Global GDP

UK Italy

represents 6% of Global GDP

 

pending:

UK Italy

And Not in Recession in 2012Q2:  USA, China, Japan, Germany, France, Brazil, Canada, Russia,>India, Australia, Mexico, South Korea, Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa & Argentina >(in order of GDP & comprising 59% of worldwide GDP;  excludes 20th membership, courtesy to EU).  The remaining 160 nations comprise 35% of worldwide GDP    (data source: IMF)

CPB Netherlands

JPMorgan

G-20 Recessions Monitor

Nov 24 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Aug 24th MemberVenue guidance ~ Global GDP in 2012Q2 was 2.9% and Q3 is gauged to be running at a 3.9% pace.  Due to extreme austerity measures, the UK & Italy are the only G-20 nations in Recession in Q4.  The UK is in a Technical Recession and Italy in a Severe Recession.  These are not conventional business cycle events.  Conversely, Japan's contraction commenced several months prior to legacy issues related to its earthquake/tsunami damage.

 High Oil Price Induced G-20 Recessions   Since Jan/2010, annotations in the Barrel Meter crude price-components model have been warning there is a predictive threshold above which high oil costs can induce (or augment) a new round of G-20 Recessions.  Record oil prices no doubt assisted in pushing already weakened G-20 economies past their tipping points ($30/barrel) in 1980-1982 as central banks waged war on inflation via high interest rate monetary policy.  But when USA contract crude surpassed $106/barrel in early 2008, it marked the first time several Recessions among the G-20 were actually induced by cumulative or "baked-in" high petroleum costs.

A similar situation almost re-occurred in 2011.  When USA contract crude spiked to $113 (monthly avg) in April 2011, it was just a tad shy of the $117/barrel threshold which signals breach of a definitive petroleum/GDP ratio above which several nations are economically vulnerable.  Four G-20 nations (Australia/Canada/France/Japan) indeed experienced at least one month/quarter of Real GDP contraction during the episode.  At $100 today, crude is safely below the $124/barrel threshold which would induce economic contractions.

 ...except in USA   This analysis offers up at least some explanation for the utter shock by most economists when BEA revealed USA GDP had collapsed to a mere o.1% growth rate in 2011Q1.  The TRENDLines Recession Indicator calculates a full 1.6% was trimmed from the GDP rate due to "baked-in" petroleum costs accumulated over several quarters.  The American economy is much too diversified and its per capita income much too high to be significantly damaged by high crude prices.  But that said, the repercussion of the 2011 oil price spike did indeed impact the USA auto sector.

Since Nov/2009, the TRENDLines Barrel Meter & Gas Pump models had been forecasting unit sales of New Cars & Light Trucks would suffer the same fate of 1980, 1990 & 2007 if a definitive Gasoline/GDP ratio was again surpassed.  A breach of this threshold occurred @ $90/barrel ($3.26/gallon pump) in Feb/2011 and the auto sector rebound was immediately truncated.  Annualized sales fell from 12.9 million units/yr in April to 11.7 mu/yr by June.

Sales enjoyed a robust rebound upon gasoline retreating to $3.33 in December, but a surge in gasoline prices above the threshold ($3.37) this past Winter again resulted in a downturn of auto sales and manufacturing.  As predicted by the Gas Pump, Light Vehicle Sales dropped from 14.4 mu/yr in Feb/2012 to a 13.9 pace by May.

 Global Trade   The  pre-Recession high for global merchandise exports occurred in April 2008.  After declining 20% by May 2009, its rebound finally surpassed the former high water mark in November 2010 (see chart) and trade has resumed its secular uptrend.  A 20% debasement of the USDollar since the Obama inauguration enabled the USA to break its pre-Recession Exports of goods record (July 2008) in March 2011.  China, USA & Germany are the dominant global trade players.

 Resurgence of China & India   It is little known that for the fifteen centuries after the time of Christ, India was the world's largest economic power.  In 1500 AD, China surpassed India's GDP and was itself overtaken by the USA in 1889.  China's renewed prowess should see it regain its first place status in 2021.  In turn, India's demographics create the situation whereby it is poised to take overtake Japan in twenty years and should in turn regain the global lead itself in 2037.

 Others in Trouble   Both the European Union & Eurozone have been in Technical Recession since 2011Q4.  Non G-20 nations in Recession are Belgium, Ireland & Spain.  Contractions have occurred in Austria & Netherlands.  Greece is in a Depression.

 The Great Recession   The global version of the Great Recession lasted 2008Q3 to 2009Q1.  Despite mainstream media hysteria, at its worse only 12 G-20 nations (representing 53% of global GDP) comprised this Severe Recession.  The -o.6% GDP decline in 2009 was the first annual global contraction of the last four decades.  At its depth in 2008Q4, Real GDP was plunging at a -7.0% pace.  The business cycle transitioned from "recovery mode" to "expansion mode" in Dec/2009 upon Real GDP surpassing its June 2008 high water mark.

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 G-20 Recessions Monitor

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