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Election
Campaign
Blog:
May 5 2010: With
only hours of campaigning left, conversion of this week's polls
reveals Nick Clegg's surge peaked on April 20th (two days prior to
the second Leaders Debate). During his run, Clegg garnered
sufficient support to take 34 potential seats from the Tories & 24
from Labour. Sentiment has waned for Lib-Dems and to a lesser extent
Labour over the fortnite. The Conservatives clearly own the
momentum. One senses voters are fearful that the potential of a
Labour/Lib-Dem Coalition strikes down their original preferred
outcome: scenarios vaulting David Cameron or even Clegg to #10
Downing. The force driving positive Tory sentiment over these
two weeks may be sudden cognizance by the electorate that giving
Cameron a clear Majority is their only way of ridding themselves of
PM Brown. Unfortunately, the chart indicates that on its present
trajectory, the Conservative Party is running out of time and will
be shy of a Majority victory by May 6th. If they fall short, Gordon
Brown could still retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition
agreement with the Liberal Democrat Party. A similar Conservative
Coalition with "the Others" is improbable due to the fragmented
nature of those MPs. But, an informal alliance with the 6 Unionist
MPs from Northern Island could reduce Cameron's working Majority
threshold to a more attainable 320. Today's Seat Projection
update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the
Campaign with 299 MPs (27 short of Majority), while PM Brown's
Labour Party has slid to 227 since a recent peak in mid-March. The
balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats,
ahead in 93 seats. The "Others" lead in 31 and may also play a
greater role in tight House of Commons votes.
May 4 2010: With
only a day of campaigning left, conversion of new polls reveals Nick
Clegg's surge peaked on April 20th (two days prior to the second
Leaders Debate). During his run, Clegg drew 34 potential seats from
the Tories and 24 from Labour. But as sentiment has waned over the
fortnite, the gain has been exclusively in the Conservative's
favour. The Tories clearly own the momentum presently. One senses
that voters are fearful that the potential of a Labour/Lib-Dem
Coalition strikes down their original preferred outcome: scenarios
vaulting David Cameron or even Clegg to #10 Downing. The force
driving positive Tory sentiment over these two weeks may be sudden
cognizance by the electorate that giving Cameron a clear Majority is
their only way of ridding themselves of PM Brown. Unfortunately, the
chart indicates that on its present trajectory, the Conservative
Party may be just inches shy of a Majority victory by May 6th. But
if they fall short, Gordon Brown could still retain his Prime
Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrat
Party. A similar Conservative Coalition with "the Others" is
improbable due to the fragmented nature of those MPs. But an
informal alliance with the 6 Unionist MPs from Northern Island could
reduce Cameron's Majority threshold to a more accessible 320.
Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a
Minority lead in the Campaign with 293 MPs (37 short of Majority),
while PM Brown's Labour Party has slid to 227 since a recent peak in
mid March. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal
Democrats, ahead in 98 seats. The "Others" lead in 32 and may also
play a greater role in tight House of Commons votes.
May 3 2010: With
only two days of campaigning left after today, conversion of new
polls reveals Nick Clegg's surge peaked April 20th and support
continues to wane. Labour's hemorrhaging of 51 potential seats
reflects a trend starting six weeks ago. The Tories clearly have
momentum. One senses that voters are fearful a Coalition is the
"hidden agenda" that presents a scenario fulfilling neither of their
wishes: promoting either Cameron or even Clegg as PM.
Something has been driving the growing positive Tory sentiment since
April 20th. It may be the electorate understands that giving Cameron
a clear Majority is their only way of ridding themselves of PM
Brown. The chart indicates that on the present trajectory, the
Conservative Party may be within inches of a Majority victory by May
6th. But if he falls short, Gordon Brown could still retain his
Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the Liberal
Democrat Party. A similar Conservative Coalition with "the Others"
is improbable due to the fragmented nature of those MPs.
Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a
Minority lead in the Campaign with 296 MPs (30 short of Majority),
while PM Brown's Labour Party has slid to 224. The balance of power
is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 98 seats.
The "Others" lead in 32.
May 2
2010: With only three days of campaigning left after today, conversion of new polls
reveals Nick Clegg's surge peaked April 20th and support continues
to
wane. Labour's recent hemorrhaging over the fortnite has been
less severe. The Tories
clearly have momentum. One senses that voters are fearful a
Coalition is the "hidden agenda" that presents a scenario fulfilling
neither of their wishes: promoting either Cameron or even
Clegg as PM.
Something has been driving the growing positive Tory sentiment since
April 20th. It may be the electorate understands that giving
Cameron a clear Majority is their only way of ridding themselves of
PM Brown. The chart indicates that on the present trajectory,
the Conservative Party
may be within inches of a Majority victory on May 6th.
But if he falls short, Gordon Brown could still retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrat Party.
A similar Conservative Coalition with "the Others" is improbable due
to the fragmented nature of those MPs.
Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in
the Campaign with 298 MPs (28 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party
has slid to 218. The balance of power is firmly in
control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 102
seats. The "Others" lead in 32.
May 1 2010: With only four days of
campaigning left, conversion of new polls reveals Nick Clegg's surge
peaked April 20th and support continues to wane. Labour has
generally stabilized, and it is the Tories with the momentum. On the
present trajectory, David Cameron may be within inches of a Majority
victory on May 6th. But if he falls short, Gordon Brown could still
retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the
Liberal Democrat Party. Today's Seat Projection update
indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with
297 MPs (29 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has
slid to 221. The balance of power is firmly in control of the
Liberal Democrats, ahead in 100 seats. The "Others" lead in 32.
April 30 2010: With only five days of
campaigning left, conversion of new polls reveals Nick Clegg's surge
peaked April 20th and is presently waning. Meanwhile Labour & the
Tories have stabilized in a fairly tight channels. On the present
trajectory, it is improbable David Cameron will attain the elusive
Majority on May 6th. If he falls short, Gordon Brown could still
retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the
Liberal Democrat Party. Today's Seat Projection update
indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with
286 MPs (40 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has
slid to 229. The balance of power is firmly in control of the
Liberal Democrats, ahead in 103 seats. The "Others" lead in 32.
April 28 2010: With only seven days
of campaigning left, tomorrow's third and final Leaders Debate could
be the final opportunity for one of the Parties to shake up
sentiment. Conversion of new polls reveals Nick Clegg's surge has
ran oudda gas and Labour support is being lost to the Tories. On the
present trajectory, David Cameron may be within inches of a Majority
victory on May 6th. If he falls short, Gordon Brown could still
retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the
Liberal Democrat Party. Today's Seat Projection update
indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with
292 MPs (34 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has
slid to 214. The balance of power is firmly in control of the
Liberal Democrats, ahead in 113 seats. The "Others" lead in 31.
April 27 2010: With only eight
days of campaigning and one Leaders Debate to go, conversion of new
polls reveals it is now the Conservative Party with the sure
momentum. Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrat Party was seen for seven
days to be "the great white hope" but a savvy electorate soon
realized that instead of voting in a left of center government, they
were potentially electing an enabler for Gordon Brown to retain PM
status. And given the choice between the Conservatives and a
Labour/Lib-Dem Coalition, voters seem to be gritting it and going
with David Cameron after all.
Via published seat projections, it quickly became clear Liberal
Democrat support across the UK was just too widely dispersed for
them to take the lead, They lacked the regional concentrations that
should give a Party alotta MPs considering the second place (31%)
sentiment status once enjoyed. It's also possible that in peering
over the crevice prior to the great leap (in faith), the electorate
assessed Clegg as a lone superstars lacking a strong team for
Cabinet-building purposes. Cameron faced this exact same doubt sixty
days back. It calls into question whether these two Parties are
genuine governments-in-waiting. Fortunately for Cameron, PM Brown is
so despised presently that the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal
Opposition may ultimately get the nod. At this juncture, it appears
Voters respect all three Leaders, their platforms and/or the local
candidate sufficiently that they may choose the path of a hung
(Minority) parliament to see what cream rises to the top over the
next few seasons. Thursday's Debate may make the difference.
Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a
Minority lead in the Campaign with 288 MPs (38 short of Majority),
while PM Brown's Labour Party has slid to 226. The balance of power
is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 104 seats.
The "Others" lead in 32.
April 26 2010: With only nine days
and one Leaders Debate to go, conversion of new polls reveals it is
now the Conservative Party with the sure momentum. Nick Clegg's
Liberal Democrat Party was seen for awhile to be "the great white
hope" but a savvy electorate soon realized that instead of voting in
a left of center government, they were potentially electing an
enabler for Gordon Brown to retain PM status ... via a Coalition.
And given the choice between the Conservatives and a Labour/Lib-Dem
alliance, voters seem to be gritting and going with David Cameron
after all.
It has become clear via the published
seat projections that Liberal Democrat support around the UK was
just too widely dispersed for them to take the lead, They have no
regional concentrations that should give a Party alotta MPs
considering the second place (29%) sentiment status enjoyed. It is
also possible that in peering over the precipice before changing
horses, both Clegg & Cameron are ultimately assessed as lone
superstars lacking a strong team for Cabinet-building purposes. It
calls into question whether these Parties are genuine
governments-in-waiting. But Brown is so despised, that Cameron gets
the nod none-the-less. At this juncture, it appears Voters like all
three Leaders, their platforms and/or the local candidate
sufficiently to choose the path of a hung (Minority) parliament and
see what cream rises to the top over the next few seasons.
Thursday's Debate may make the difference.
Today's Seat Projection update
indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with
289 MPs (37 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party sits
at 222. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal
Democrats, ahead in 107 seats. The "Others" lead in 32.
April 25 2010: With ten days and one
Leaders Debate to go, conversion of new polls reveals hemorrhaging
of Labour/Conservative support to the Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrat
Party has at least temporarily come to an end. With 29% sentiment,
they remain in second place ... but the widespread nature of their
support is not translating into expected seats. Performance in the
final Debate on Thursday may be the difference between one becoming
PM or Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Or, will a Coalition
agreement thwart a Minority victory? Can charisma trump platform?
Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a
Minority lead in the Campaign with 282 MPs (44 short of Majority),
while PM Brown's Labour Party sits at 229. The balance of power is
firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 108 seats. The
"Others" lead in 31.
April 24 2010: With eleven days and
one Leaders Debate to go, conversion of new polls continues to
demonstrate good momentum for Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrat Party.
At 31%, they've vaulted ahead of the Labour Party in sentiment, but
still trail using the average of five seat projections. Performance
in the final Debate on Thursday may be the difference between one
becoming PM or Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Or, will a
Coalition agreement thwart a Minority victory? Can charisma trump
platform?
Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a
Minority lead in the Campaign with 278 MPs (48 short of Majority),
while PM Brown's Labour Party has slipped to 220. The balance of
power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 114
seats. The "Others" lead in 30.
April 20 2010: With fifteen days to
go, conversion of new polls continues to demonstrate good momentum
for Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrat Party after last week's historic
first televised Leaders Debate. At 29%, they've vaulted ahead of the
Labour Party. Anticipation builds for the next Debate on Thursday.
Under the Westminster electoral system, the Party winning the most
seats on election nite is not necessarily awarded governance if it
does not attain Majority status. That privilege goes to the Party
that has the command of the House of Commons. In short, should Nick
Clegg announce post-Election that he intends to use his Balance of
Power to support the Labour Party (to which his platform is better
aligned) rather than the Conservatives, then Gordon Brown may retain
his Prime Ministership. This could be accomplished by an informal
alliance or via a formal Coalition. Upon the latter, it is probable
that Clegg would be invited into Cabinet.
Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a
Minority lead in the Campaign with 283 MPs (43 short of Majority),
while PM Brown's Labour Party has slipped to 236. The balance of
power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 101
seats. The "Others" category has 30.
April 19 2010: With sixteen days to
go, conversion of new polls continues to reveal Nick Clegg's Liberal
Democrat Party has good momentum since last week's first televised
Leaders Debate. At 29%, they've vaulted ahead of the Labour Party.
Anticipation is building for the next Debate on Thursday.
Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a
Minority lead in the Campaign with 283 MPs (43 short of Majority),
while PM Brown's Labour Party has slipped to 239. The balance of
power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 98
seats. The "Others" category has 30.
April 17 2010: With less than three
weeks to go, everyone is in shock that the reasonably good
performance by Nick Clegg has helped vault the sentiment for his
Liberal Democrat Party to such a degree ... up 5% this month. This
will only enhance the anticipation for Thursday's next Leaders
Debate. Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's
Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 287 MPs (39 short
of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party is mired at 251. The
balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats,
ahead in 81 seats. The "Others" category has 31.
April 13 2010: With less than four
weeks to go, sentiment has attained some degree of stability. There
is some degree of anticipation to see the next set of polling
numbers, which will be the first after Thursday's Leaders' Debate.
Two more debates will follow on successive Thursdays.
Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a
Minority lead in the Campaign with 306 MPs (20 short of Majority),
while PM Brown's Labour Party has risen to 255. The balance of power
is shared by the Liberal-Democrats, ahead in 58 seats & the 31
"Others" category.
April 10
2010: With less than four weeks to go, we're pleased to add a
fourth practitioner to our multi-model avg: the effort by the London School of
Economics.
Today's update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in
the Campaign with 312 MPs (14 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party
has slipped to 251 ... continuing a divergence that commenced
March 15th. The balance of power is shared by the Liberal-Democrats, ahead in 56
seats & the 31 "Others" category.
April 7 2010: With 29 days to go,
most everyone is surprised to see a shift of only 18 MPs will decide
the outcome of the May 6th Election. Today's update reveals PM
Brown's Labour Party commences the election campaign with a lead in
264 Seats, 2 more than a week ago. Cameron's Tories have lost 7
potentials and sit with 300 MPs. The Liberal Democrats are ahead in
55 (up 6) and hold the balance of power at this time...
Pre-Election
Blog:
March 20
2010: With less than 11 weeks to the UK Election, folks ... we
have a horse race! On New Year's Day, Labour was reconciled to
defeat as they sat upon an ominous seat projection of only 191 MPs.
Truly a remarkable turn of events has transpired in the ensuing
weeks. For the fourth time since the 2005 Election, one of the
Parties has closed an ultra major gap. Our tracking of the
average of recognized projection models illustrates a reversal of
momentum occurs approx every 14 months.
Today's update reveals PM Brown's Labour Party would have commenced
a hypothetical mid-March election campaign with a lead in 275
Seats, 39 more than fifteen days prior. Cameron's Tories have
lost 32 potentials and sit with 296 MPs.
The Liberal Democrats are ahead in 48 (down 5).
March 12 2010: Brown's Labour Party
would have commenced a hypothetical early March election campaign
with a lead in 236 Seats, 24 more than thirty days prior.
The Liberal Democrats are ahead in 53 (down 4). Cameron's Tories
have lost 21 potentials and sit with 328 MPs. Based on the
underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the
Conservative Party is poised for an ultimate 368 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.
Feb 12
2010: Brown's Labour Party
would have commenced a hypothetical early February election campaign
with a lead in 212 Seats, 21 more than thirty days prior.
The Liberal Democrats are ahead in 57 (up 1). Cameron's Tories
have lost 17 potentials and sit with 349 MPs. Based on the
underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the
Conservative Party is poised for an ultimate 378 MP Majority
victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.
Jan 28
2009: Brown's Labour Party
would have commenced a hypothetical early January election campaign
with a lead in 191 Seats, 32 less than thirty days prior.
The Liberal Democrats are ahead in 56 (up 4). Cameron's Tories
have gained 23 potentials and sit with 366 MPs. Based on the
underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the
Conservative Party is poised for an ultimate 385 MP Majority
victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.
Dec 18 2009: Brown's Labour
Party would have commenced a hypothetical early December election
campaign with a lead in 223 Seats, 31 more than 30 days prior. The
Liberal Democrats are ahead in 52 (same). Cameron's Tories have lost
31 potentials and sit with 343 MPs. Based on the underlying long
term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Conservative
Party is poised for an ultimate 388 MP Majority victory upon expiry
of the current Parliament in June 2010.
Nov 28
2009: Brown's Labour Party
would have commenced a hypothetical early November election campaign
with a lead in 192 Seats, 2 more than 30 days prior.
The Liberal Democrats are ahead in 52 (down 16). Cameron's Tories
have gained 14 potentials and sit with 374 MPs. Based on the
underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the
Conservative Party is poised for an ultimate 397 MP Majority
victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.
Nov 21
2009: Less than 29 weeks to the UK Election ...
Brown's Labour Party
would have commenced a hypothetical early October election campaign
with a lead in 190 Seats, 1 less than 30 days prior.
The Liberal Democrats are ahead in 68. Cameron's Tories
have lost 26 potentials and sit with 360 MPs. And, based on the
underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the
Conservative Party is poised for an ultimate 399 MP Majority
victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.
Nov 15
2009: No mitigation of train wreck ahead ...
The Conservative Party
would have commenced a hypothetical early September election campaign
with a lead in 386 Seats. And based on the
underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the
Tories are poised for an ultimate 408 MP Majority
victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010. Our
Election Day targets are of course
vulnerable to interim events en route and subject to the dynamics
within an ultimate Election Campaign.
Sept 26
2009: The trends continue unabated ...
The Conservative Party
would have commenced a hypothetical early August election campaign
with a lead in 381 Seats. And based on the
underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the
Tories are poised for an ultimate 405 MP Majority
victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.
Sept 20 2009: The trends continue ...
The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early
July election campaign with a lead in 334 Seats. And based on the
underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the
Tories are poised for an ultimate 406 MP Majority victory upon
expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.
Sept 12
2009: This still looks grim...
The Conservative Party
would have commenced a hypothetical early June election campaign
with a lead in 385 Seats. And based on the
underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the
Tories are poised for an ultimate 424 MP Majority
victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.
Sept 7
2009: This looks grim...
The Conservative Party
would have commenced a hypothetical early May election campaign with
a lead in 393 Seats. And based on the underlying long term
momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the Tories are poised
for an ultimate 420 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the
current Parliament in June 2010.
April 11
2009: A couple of internationally high profile months for
Gordon Brown have done little to stem the sentiment momentum for the
Cameron
Conservatives ... with
14 months remaining in Brown's mandate.
The Conservative Party
would have commenced a hypothetical early April election campaign
with a lead in 370 Seats. And based on the
underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the
Tories are poised for an ultimate 411 MP Majority
victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.
Feb 22nd
2009: A major shift in sentiment in January benefitted the
Conservatives ... with
16 months remaining in Brown's mandate.
The Conservative Party
would have commenced a hypothetical late January Election campaign
with a lead in 360 Seats. And based on the
underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the
Cameron Tories are poised for an ultimate 412 MP Majority
victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.
Jan 21st
2009: The
Credit Crisis & subsequent Recessionary pressure continues to result
in hemorrhaging for the Conservatives. A seemingly
insurmountable lead is now but a tender gap ... with
15 months remaining in Brown's mandate.
The Conservative Party
would have commenced a hypothetical late December Election campaign
with a lead in 296 Seats. Further, based on the
underlying long term momentum, TrendLines Research projects that the
Cameron Tories are poised for an ultimate 414 MP Majority
victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in June 2010.
Dec 19th
2008: The
Credit Crisis & subsequent Recessionary pressure continues to result
in hemorrhaging for the Conservatives. A seemingly
insurmountable lead is now but a tender gap ... with
17 months remaining in Brown's mandate.
The Conservative Party was
poised for a 325-MP Minority had there been a late November
Election. Based on the underlying long term
momentum, TrendLines Research
projects as an ultimate Target for
2010 a 461-MP Conservative Majority.
Nov 27th
2008:
Today's update blends a third seat projection model into the monthly
average as we introduce the stalwart studies of Harry Hayfield.
As the
Credit Crunch spawns a Recession, downward momentum continues for the Conservatives ... with
18 months to go in Brown's mandate. The October
figures reflect revisions to 3 Seat Projection models & the
updating of 6 national polls.
Straight conversion of
the latest October surveys yields
361-C, 217-L, 35-L/D & 37-O. Based on the underlying long term
momentum, TrendLines Research
projects as ultimate Targets for
2010: 499 Conservatives, 76 Labour, 46 Liberal-Democrats,
18 Irish & 11 Others.
The "Oct"
data points in the chart are derived by averaging results of
3 recognized
Riding Projection models
(Baxter, Hayfield & Wells) with the input of 6 national
pollsters
conducted Oct 3-Nov 1 2008.
Oct 25th
2008: The
current Liquidity Crisis curbed the momentum of the Conservatives in
Canada; body checked the conservative McCain/Palin ticket in
the USA; and is presently thwarting a Conservative landslide in the
UK ... with 20 months to go in Brown's mandate. These
September
figures reflect revisions to two Seat Projection models & the
updating of 5 national polls.
Straight conversion of
the latest Sept surveys yields
378-C, 214-L, 30-L/D, 28-O. However, these outlier results
should be considered with caution. TrendLines Research
has more confidence in the
underlying trend as represented by our
Election Day Long-Term Momentum trend line & ultimate Targets for
2010: 511 Conservatives, 70 Labour, 44 Liberal-Democrats,
18 Irish & 7 Others (see
dotted lines in the chart).
The "Sept"
data points in the chart are derived by averaging results of
2 recognized
Riding Projection models
(Baxter & Wells) with the input of 5 national
pollsters
conducted Sept 12-28 2008.
Sept 22nd
2008: Contemplation of
Leadership change for the Labour Party dominated last month's issues
... with 21 months to go in Brown's mandate. The August
figures reflect revisions to two Seat Projection models & the
updating of 6 national polls.
Straight conversion of
the latest August surveys yields
421-C, 173-L, 27-L/D, 29-O. However, these outlier results
should be considered with caution. TrendLines Research
has more confidence in the
underlying trend as represented by our
Election Day Long-Term Momentum trend line & ultimate Targets for
2010: 510 Conservatives, 68 Labour, 47 Liberal-Democrats,
18 Irish & 7 Others (see
dotted lines in the chart).
The "August"
data points in the chart are derived by averaging results of
2 recognized
Riding Projection models
(Baxter & Wells) with the input of 6 national
pollsters
conducted Aug 1-31 2008.
Aug 24th
2008: Again,
both the TrendLines "today" & "2010 Target" are indicating
Conservative Party wins.
Today's chart status
of 417/177/27/29 MPs (and all figures since the 2005 Election) are the
compiled average of available recognized Riding Projection models
mentioned in the footnotes. Each projection model has its own
methodology of converting polling data into winnable
Seats by the Parties. TrendLines Research then
extrapolates each Party's long term trend to project their probable
status by Election Day.
Albeit our Seat
Projection
Chart illustrates the Conservative Party status at
417 potential MPs as of today, present momentum
(represented by the above long term trend line) indicates that they
will attain an ultimate
Majority victory of 454 by June 3rd 2010. The
Labour Party will retain only 115 MPs. Present trends foresee the
Liberal
Democrats rising to 56 Seats while the "others" are mired at
25 (incl 18 Irish MPs). The "today" conversion
is based on
2 models and their conversion of surveys by 5 recognized pollsters
conducted July 17 - Aug 1 2008.
July 19th
2008: For the first time,
both the TrendLines "today" & "2010 Target" are indicating
Conservative Party wins. They are on a journey to 384 MPs upon
waiting out Brown's mandate.
May 20th
2008: Albeit the long term
trend line indicates a substantial Labour Majority in 2010, the Labour
Party would most probably lose governance if the Election was this
Spring.
April 18th
2008: Albeit the long term
trend line indicates a slight Labour Majority in 2010, the Labour
Party would most probably lose governance any Election in 2008.
March 18th
2008: A quite tight race ...
Feb 16th
2008: In some circles, he'd
be known as "the come-back kid"...
Jan 12th
2008: Labour's hemorrhaging
seems to have stopped for the moment. And to the Tories'
dismay, they still got two and a half years to regroup. Long term trends
are still positive for Labour and stronger for the Lib/Dems. Albeit our Seat
Projection
Chart illustrates Conservative Party status at
314 potential MPPs as of today, present momentum
(represented by the above long term trend line) would indicate that
Gordon Brown's Labour Party may rebound on the journey towards an ultimate Minority victory of 308 by June 3rd 2010.
Dec 12th
2008: "Am i ever glad we
didn't call the fricken Election!"
Oct 11th
2007: Conversion by Seat
Projection Models of final September polling
reflected in
our inaugural UK Riding Projection Charts
suggests that the
Labour Party's 47% bump in potential Seats associated with the honeymoon phenom
surrounding Gordon Brown's successful leadership bid was perhaps at peak
at month end.
Random commentary:
Oct 11th
2007: Conversion by Seat
Projection Models of final September polling
reflected in
our inaugural UK Riding Projection Charts
suggests that the
Labour Party's 47% bump in potential Seats associated with the honeymoon phenom
surrounding Gordon Brown's successful leadership bid was perhaps at peak
at month end.
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