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Seat Projection for August 2010 Australian  Election

econ Canadian Recession Meter infers 5.4% GDP Growth in April

econ ~ Monthly update of TrendLines Realty Bubble Monitor:  Australia $150,000, UK £ 87,000, Canada $78,000 & USA $4,000

^ grits' new wheels!

<< tories' new machine!                                         

Can UK Coalition Agreement Raise the Bar in Canada?

July 26 2010:  The spirit of cooperation and conciliation resulting in a marvelous Coalition Agreement in the days after the UK Election certainly throws down the gauntlet to Canadian politicians.  The Agreement offers guidance on a myriad of platform issues to be dealt with over the next five years, and awards several Cabinet posts (incl Deputy PM) to the Liberal-Democrats by the Conservatives.

Facing its first crisis, a potential currency devaluation engineered by bond vigilantes due to a monumental deficits and national debt, the two parties agreed to an austerity budget chopping program spending by 25%.  Only the solidarity of their political union enabled these bold measures.  Many jurisdictions are besieged with partisanship to the degree that situations have become so adversarial as to make their legislation process dysfunctional.  The UK model illustrates 2 plus 2 can equal 5.  The quest for power was secondary.

Meanwhile, PM Harper will continue to get great news on the economic front.  We're predicting StatCan will this week announce May GDP of 7.5% ... a growth rate not seen since 2002.  Next week should see further decline in the Unemployment Rate.  On the horizon, the winding down of fiscal stimulus and a probable double-dip in the USA could dampen GDP to the 2.3% vicinity by October.  Despite short, medium & long term problems in the USA, Canada's GDP should return to the 2.7% mean by 2012Q2.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have started a hypothetical July 3rd Election Campaign with a lead in 132 Ridings, followed by:  95 Liberals, 32 NDP, 48 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 5 national polls conducted May30-July3 2010 by 6 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early July Election Campaign with a lead in 131 Seats ... down 5 from thirty days prior.  The Liberal Party would start with 87 Members (same).  The Bloc & NDP would have started a late Spring campaign with 52 & 37 Ridings respectively.  For the second consecutive month, these are the first results since December 2008, where our long term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits) to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012 ... leading in 109 Ridings upon the dropping of that writ.

Please scroll down a bit for Blog archive...

Our Election Day targets are of course vulnerable to interim events en route and subject to the dynamics within an ultimate Election Campaign. This includes interventions by Party Leaders or membership to avert erosion of core support.

The chart's "May" data points were based on 7 models' converting of 7 national polls conducted April 30-June 1  2010

The chart's "April" data points were based on 5 models' converting of 5 national polls conducted April 21-29  2010

The chart's "March" data points were based on 5 models' converting of 6 national polls conducted March 3-30  2010

52 Bloc Quebecois MPs

37

45 NDP MPs

1 INDEP'T MPs

0 Green MPs

308 MP House of Commons

Seat status today:  144-C, 77-L, 48-BQ, 36-NDP, 2-Indep't & 1 Vacant

pending By-Elections:  1 by Oct 27th (Man), 4 by Nov 9th (2-Que, NS & BC)

Pre-2010 results have been smoothed. Please click the prior Elections links in title above for higher resolution charts (or scroll way down).

Models active in the Post 2008 Election conversions have included:  Paul Adams (EKOS Research), Nick Boragina (nixtuff), anonymous (CdnElectionWatch), ÉricG (308DotCom), Barry Kay (LISPOP), Bernard von Schulmann (BC  Iconoclast) as well as our own applications of the H&K Predictor & Antweiler Matrix Forecaster, followed by a final overlay of the TrendLines Long Term Momentum Target Indicator.

TrendLines Research commenced monthly tracking of available Canadian Riding Projections in April 2004.  Over the past four major Elections, our multi-model methodology has proved the most accurate forecasting tool.  The tally has included at least one of our own contributory models since since February 2006.  We tracked 17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008 Election.  As many as 8 practitioner models have been active in electoral analysis since the 2008 Election.

about us:  TrendLines Research's Overall Prediction Success Rating since 2004 is 88%.  Our multi-model averaging methodology is the highest rated of the 17 global projection models that have attempted to predict the 2004/2006/2008 Canadian & 2007 Ontario Elections.  Even before the Election Writ was dropped, we had declared that this illegal action by Harper would cause a unite-the-left scenario resulting in a socialist leaning Coalition.

Our USA Electoral College Vote projections were the highest rated of all polling firms that publicly tracked both the 2004 & 2008 Presidential Elections.  Similarly in the 2006 Canadian Federal Election, Freddy Hutter was the first political analyst to predict the Defeat of the Paul Martin Gov't.  On Nov 30th 2005, TrendLines Research commenced published projections of a Stephen Harper led Conservative Minority ... seven weeks before Election Day; and in spite of the fact that the Liberal Party was ahead in almost all polls from May to Christmas!

Our post-2006 projections are based on a blending of 19 Riding Projection Models by Paul Adams (EKOS Research), Dan Arnold, Nick Boragina (nixtuff), anonymous (CdnElectionWatch), Milton Chan (Election Prediction Project), Harry Hayfield (UK), Brendan Hodgson & Tonie Chaltas (Hill & Knowlton), Barry Kay (LISPOP), David MacDonald (NoDice), Greg Morrow (DemocraticSpace), Mark Pickup (Polling Observatory), Glen Robbins, Segma, anonymous Paul (Paulitics), Bernard von Schulmann (BC  Iconoclast), Werner Antweiler (UBC Election Stock Market ... plus our own applications of Werner Antweiler's Voter Migration Matrix (UBC), Brendan Hodgson's Election Predictor (Hill & Knowlton) & Mark Pickup' Poll Corrector  ... which are incorporated by several of the models.  Finally, we overlay our Long Term Momentum Indicator.

These studies are in turn based on Canvassing and/or published national/regional Public Opinion Poll data (with avg 3% margin of error).  Please note that fine tuning of the models sometimes affects older data entries on the chart.  Several chart values have been deleted for clarity.  The Election Day projection will incorporate other recognized models as Federal polling becomes more frequent.

The TrendLines Projection also incorporates some 2006 Models by academics and political analysts including Jordan O'Brien, Ipsos Reid & Allen Gregg.  In addition, Models by Andrew Heard, Alan Hall & EKOS were included in the 2004 studies.  All do stellar work for little recognition.  Scroll below for more info on methodology or higher resolution of the 2006 & 2004 Projections.  Only the Yukon Projection includes direct polling by TrendLines Research.

Post 2008-Election Blog:

June 30 2010:  Sun Media bringing a "FoxNorth" to Canadians Desperate for Fair & Balanced News!

Just days after our CBC rants, Sun Media has announced its desire to bring fair and balanced news via a Canadian Cable Channel.  Fox News claimed another victim south of the border this week ... Larry King.  With Fox owning the top 13 cable news programs, Sun no doubt sees the same opportunity in Canada for a national broadcaster that caters to audiences desperate to get away from the left wing drivel that has polluted the airwaves.  CNN & MSNBC are near bankruptcy.  CBC is the obviously the vulnerable target north of the 49th.

CBC has finally dropped the two-pronged attack on the Conservative Gov't.  Its pacifist position on Afghanistan has no visible public support.  And CBC's on-air obsession with free abortions was finally put to rest the day after a report from Canadian hospitals surfaced revealing 3 late-term abortions are performed every single day in Canada.  The unholy alliance between CBC and the Liberal Party resulted in the latter's fortunes plummeting to a mere 87 potential seats by the end of May.  A failed experiment for both.  The CBC comes out of this with a $1.8 billion operating deficit as advertising revenue from firms with right wing sentiment withdraw.  CBC missed its ad target by 18% in its last financial report.

Meanwhile, PM Harper will continue to get great news on the economic front.  We're predicting StatCan will announce within four weeks that growth's recent record of 5.7% GDP set in January could be surpassed, along with another decline in the Unemployment Rate.  On the horizon, the winding down of fiscal stimulus and a probable double-dip in the USA should dampen GDP to the 2.3% vicinity by Spring 2012, followed by a return to the 2.7% mean shortly thereafter.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have started a hypothetical June 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 136 Ridings, followed by:  87 Liberals, 35 NDP & 50 BQ.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 7 national polls conducted April30-June1 2010 by 7 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early June Election Campaign with a lead in 136 Seats ... up 4 from thirty days prior.  The Liberal Party would start with 87 Members (down 2).  The Bloc & NDP would have started a late Spring campaign with 50 & 35 Ridings respectively.  For the first time since December 2008, our long term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits) to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012 ... leading in 109 Ridings upon the dropping of that writ.

May 14 update:  CBC Fails to Provoke Federal Election

Due to our recent "rants" regarding lack of objectivity in CBC news and current affairs content, Hubert Lacroix, president of CBC, today announced an outside "study" of these bias claims.  It is to be released by Thanxgiving Day.  It was a doubly somber day at CBC with the announcement that a multi-party agreement has been forwarded to the Speaker on the release of Afghan detainee documents issue.  It has been apparent for seven months that the CBC has been inflaming this situation with aspirations of provoking a snap General Election.  CBC needed the ad revenue.

Failing to generate these funds, CBC joins Greece & California as a dead man walking.  Documents procured by TrendLines Research reveal the CBC's annual operating deficit has reached $1.8 billion.  Its TV advertising revenue has declined.  More instructively, CBC missed its $352 million TV ad target by $65 million (18%).  Less than 3% of Canadians are watching/listening to CBC each day.

CBC content had deteriorated to tabloid-style sensationalist "journalism" with few segments putting issues in their proper context.  CBC has adopted an MSNBC far left political agenda which drives away conservative audiences.  By openly advocating radical socialist issues and opinions, its on-air personalities risk damaging audience-share and subsequently ... advertising revenues.  This may be fine for a private corporation that is a soap-box for a liberal political motivations.  MSNBC will shortly join its radio counterpart (Air America) in bankruptcy.  But while MSNBC is beholden and answerable to its shareholder for its misguided strategy, Canadian taxpayers have no such venue for opposition to radical liberal factions of the CBC using this crown corporation (a national utility) for its promoting its platform.

It is time for common sense.  It is time for parliamentarians to privatize the CBC.  It no longer serves that national interest.  At the very least, CBC-TV should be transitioned to a pay-per-view cable/satellite option.  Similarly CBC-Radio & Radio-Quebec should be transitioned from their ad-free status and commence paying their own bills ... just as Greece, California, Spain & Portugal are being forced to implement austerity measures.  Canadian taxpayers face a $46 annual billion deficit in 2010.  Ridding themselves of $1.8 billion via reorganization of the CBC makes sense.  Its mandate of providing signals to the wilderness regions of Canada no longer applies.  Northerners near the Arctic Circle like myself get several free radio stations and for twenty bucks monthly receive 80 satellite TV channels on ShawDirect (StarChoice).  It's time...  (link)

May 5 2010:  Rogue CBC Agenda is Decimating Liberal Support

Unprecedented vicious attacks on North American conservatives by the far left has become a teachable moment in unintended consequences.  The Progressives' wing of the Democrat Party was unrelenting in their assault on Sarah Palin in 2009.  This year their target was Glen Beck.  Both movements were enabled by the Whitehouse and MSNBC.  Consider the shock when their investigative reporters found the aggressor-inspired notoriety resulted in Palin & Beck raking in $11 Million & $12 Million respectively.  Oops...

Nobody on the Right is getting wealthy in Canada, but the CBC assault on the Tories has been no less costly.  By enabling a small agenda-driven group of pacifists & pro-abortionists that have hijacked the news department at CBC, the Liberal Party has seen its core support decimated.  Save for a brief "prorogue" bump in January, the Grits have relapsed to the 80's in our seat projections.

As elaborated on last month, CBC's ill-founded strategy is based on four goals:  (a) liberalize free abortions in Canada and internationally;  (b) end Canada's involvement in the Afghanistan by indictments of 44 Canadian soldiers and diplomats for war crimes;  (c) a social engineering agenda promoting abortion;  and (d) build advertising revenues by prompting a federal election.

Canadian viewers have been subjected to sensationalized segments in a general deteriorated environment of tabloid-style journalism.   The least common denominator prevails.  This campaign, now in its seventh month, has seen Liberal support founder to less than 90 seats in no less than four of those months.  The alliance between the Liberal Party of Canada & CBC reflects a bankruptcy of leadership and fresh ideas at both institutions.

Andrew Coyne's thoughtful essay on the status and long-term prospects for the Liberal Party can provide guidance for its membership.  Alienation of its conservative and independent viewers has no doubt pared its audience share and correlated income.  When a rogue partisan agenda increases funding exposure to taxpayers in such detrimental fashion, it's time to sell that organization or transform it to a user-pay channel (akin to MSNBC) to be carried by its ideologue supporters ... not the general Canadian population.

On the good news front (at least for PM Harper), we're predicting StatCan will announce by month end a March 2010 GDP growth rate of 4.1% & another decline in the Unemployment Rate.  Unfortunately, failure by the US Congress to address its mounting Deficits & National Debt will continue to wreak havoc on the USDollar, and it secular debasement is taking the crude oil price on a journey to $91/barrel by Q3.  Exceeding this threshold matches the Gasoline/GDP ratio that decimated USA New Car Sales in 1980, 1990 & 2007, and sets the stage for an American double-dip Recession that will no doubt have harsh ramifications North of the 49th.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have started a hypothetical May 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 139 Ridings, followed by:  87 Liberals, 36 NDP, 45 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 5 national polls conducted April 21-29 2010 by 5 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early May Election Campaign with a lead in 132 Seats ... up 1 from thirty days prior.  The Bloc & NDP would have started an early Spring campaign with 50 & 37 Ridings respectively.  Despite Ignatieff's standing falling 7 Members to 89, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will eventually take the projection lead (Sept 2012), and is poised for an ultimate 112 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

April 11 2010:  Time to Sell the CBC ~ Today's commentary is motivated by CBC's determined decision to program a sixth successive month of pro-abortion, pro-pacifist positions in its news broadcasts.  This serialized effort has been tracked in our "below the fold" blog.  To it we can add Evan Solomon's enlistment of Noam Chomsky (March 30) to further his Trotskyite socialist idealism and Terry Milewski (April 7) to cement their goal of committing to trial 44 members of the Canadian Forces for war crimes.  It was in this latter Power & Politics segment our soldiers faced accusations of "battlefield executions" by these CBC personalities.

Over the past six months, the projected seat count for the Conservatives has averaged 136 MPs compared to 92 for the Liberal Party.  Yet despite this obvious spread, CBC staff have taken on a very visible campaign to goad the Opposition into forcing a General Election.  What are their motives?  Two come to mind immediately:  they are in desperate financial straits & they fear the deficit-reduction environment has spawned sufficient sentiment to lay the groundwork for a partitioned sale of their media outlet by the Conservative Gov't as part of its strategic asset sales.

The CBC is plainly operating in survival mode.  It desires a Federal Election at a time when no Party can attain a Majority.  This strategy provides its TV division with guaranteed revenues over two election cycles over the next three years.  In particular, the CBC's News Department is void of objectiveness in its quest to survive.  It has adopted the very same opinionated rhetoric of its American counterparts.  Emboldened by the election of a Democratic president, leftist cable channels have been reduced to unsustainable market shares by loss of audiences to Fox News.  The top 13 rated news programs in the last quarter were indeed Fox programs.

By adopting Progressive-leaning MSNBC pundits and similar stands on moral issues (e.g. pro-abortion), CBC is heading down the same fatal path, but here in Canada it is at the peril of the Canadian taxpayer ... not shareholders.  Like MSNBC et al, CBC is alienating its conservative-leaning audience and advertisers.  Further, declining audiences will result is less revenues from its remaining advertisers.  As advertising revenues decline, the taxpayer will called upon for inevitable rising shortfalls.  By striving to become MSNBC-North, the CBC is exposing itself to be bankrupt ... both in terms of financial soundness and programming content.

The case is complete for ending the CBC in its present format.  As evidenced in recent CRTC Hearings, every residence in Canada has affordable ($20/month) access to basic multi-channel TV programming via cable or satellite.  While several USA cable news channels are about to meet their demise due to their thoughtless abandonment of right-wing audiences, those are commercial decisions where the only victims will be shareholders. It is inconceivable that such a suicidal path based on management ideology purposed should be adopted by a public agency such as the CBC.

In short, the taxpayer must not be forced to subsidize leftist zealots.  The election of a self-admitted Trotskyite president in the USA has encouraged like-minded socialists to further their cause by creating soapboxes within the mainstream media of North America.  Dogma is over-riding business sense decision making.  It is time to end the free platform for failed Progressive pundits, pacifists, anti-Catholic rhetoric & gloom merchants furthering their own agendas.  It is time to deconstruct CBC and sell off its parts or transform its TV Division to a pay channel where its present content will be soon gauged by audiences no longer under duress.  Similarly, its Radio Division should prove its financial feasibility by transformation from its commercial-free status.

On the good news front (at least for PM Harper), we're predicting StatCan will announce within three weeks a February 2010 GDP growth rate of 4.6% & another decline in the Unemployment Rate.  Unfortunately, failure by the US Congress to address its mounting Deficits & National Debt will continue to wreak havoc on the USDollar, and it secular debasement is taking the crude oil price on a journey to $91/barrel by Q4.  Exceeding this threshold matches the Gasoline/GDP ratio that decimated USA New Car Sales in 1980, 1990 & 2007, and sets the stage for an American double-dip Recession that will no doubt have harsh ramifications North of the 49th.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have started a hypothetical April 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 130 Ridings, followed by:  105 Liberals, 29 NDP, 43 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on practitioner canvassing and the conversion of 6 national polls conducted March 3-30 2010 by 5 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early April Election Campaign with a lead in 131 Seats ... up 2 from thirty days prior.  The Bloc & NDP would have started an early Spring campaign with 47 & 34 Ridings respectively.  Despite Ignatieff's standing falling 4 Members to 96, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will eventually take the projection lead (March 2012), and is poised for an ultimate 120 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

March 18 2010:  TrendLiners will remember my reflections back on June 30 2009 that in the coming twelve months the Liberal leader would regret his "missed opportunity" of making seat count inroads by not forcing a Summer Election.  At that precise time, the Grits were enjoying a fourth month with the lead, and a frenzied segment of the North American media was irresponsibly reporting with a sense of glee the onset of a second Great Depression.  Conversely, I mused that my Recession Meter indicated the USA Recession had troughed three months prior and better economic news was on the horizon.

In October I mentioned Ignatieff had finally adopted a two-step election strategy towards Majority - probably something like 77 ridings to 117 to 157.  But again a nervous trigger finger prevailed.  Then came our bold prediction on Nov 20 2009 that all options were closed out for the Liberal Party as three factors were about to give the Conservatives a bump in sentiment:  an imminent GDP announcement of over 5% GDP growth, lower unemployment rates & lotsa Olympic-inspired patriotic enthusiasm.  It has all come to pass...

There is general agreement that this bump would have been even more overwhelming had PM Harper not prorogued Parliament.  But, that tactical maneuver enabled the Tories to capture a Majority in the Senate ... a small price to pay for an overall advantage in legislative process.  Anyway, Question Period is back in service ... but where in the world is Michael Ignatieff?

Granting me some latitude to muse about the future once again, there continues to be generally improving economic news, but we see storm clouds ahead.  For the first time, our USA Recession Meter is this week predicting the dreaded double-dip, based on this short-term chain of events:  (a) Congress/Obama fail to address their Deficit & National Debt bubbles;  (b) foreign investors commence to reflect on their role in enabling this bad behaviour;  (c) the secular decline of the USDollar resumes;  (d) by September, crude price rises past a threshold USA Petroleum Cost/GDP ratio represented by $91/barrel oil & $3.37/gal gasoline;  (e) USA New Car Sales re-collapse ... as occurred in 1980, 1990 & 2007.

It must be remembered that our Recession in Canada escalated from Technical to Severe 'cuz USA New Home & Car Sales had been decimated.  This dramatically hurt our related export sector, and a double-dip south of the 49th can replicate that episode.  Should the Bank of Canada be cautious on its incremental raising of interest rates via its Monetary Policy, a contraction can be avoided in this country.  On the currency side, today's $0.99 exchange rate infers market traders envision a $205/barrel WTI oil price in one year.

Historically, the Loonie rises 1-cent for each $8/barrel increase in crude.  Perceived as a commodity-based currency, an upward move in petroleum is considered a boon to the Alberta & Newfoundland energy sectors.  This $205 marker conflicts dramatically with the 1-yr target for USA contract crude (5% less than WTI) per our Barrel Meter:  currently $117/barrel.  A significant degree of speculation is in play.  The current contract price of $78/barrel warrants a fair value of the Cndn Dollar of only $0.83 today.

So with our Government engaged in multi-year Deficits in a Keynesian approach to modulate the last Recession; with The Hill mired in a hopeless state of dysfunction in the House of Commons and Committees; and with the nation facing a potential economic downturn for our largest trading partner ... what is the Opposition doing to address these concerns?

Well, I am dismayed to report for a fifth consecutive month the only vocal activity in Ottawa is the ongoing hijack of the agenda by pacifists from both the Opposition and the mainstream media.  They continue their irrational quest to lay war crime charges against 44 members the Canadian military operation active in Afghanistan back in 2006.  On behalf of Amnesty International & the BC Civil Liberties Assoc, certain MPs are abusing the Committee process to secure self-incriminating testimony from Canadian soldiers, diplomats, civil servants and other officials.  Their intent is to prepare a damning dossier to be ultimately presented to prosecutors at the Int'l Criminal Tribunal at the World Court in The Hague.  Ujjal Dosangh (Liberal), Paul Dewar (NDP), Evan Solomon (CBC) & Tom Clark (CTV) have been the visible proponents of this political agenda.

This effort has been brewing for some period of time. To these MPs, the measure is payback for the despised extension of Canada's Afghan mission 'til 2011.  It is a two front attack with hopes of ending our participation in 2010 ... not 2011.  One involves embarrassing Canada on the world stage via a very public war crimes investigation.  As many as 44 Canadians that have appeared or have been associated with the detainee transfers could face crimes against humanity charges based on MP actions to date.  At risk of arrest, such charges would prevent international air travel by said Canadian soldiers and others caught in the pacifist net.

The other path is a strategy to force the Canadian Gov't into building their own prisoner facility.  This is an inherited issue.  As background, rampant anti-Americanism within the Liberal Cabinet ranks prior to 2006 prevented Canada from handing off prisoners to the US forces for housing in the USA's newly built Afghan facility.  Instead, the Liberal Cabinet ordered our troops to pass off the detainees directly to Afghan authorities, despite the known torture and abuse history.  This action by the Paul Martin Liberals provided pacifists the ammunition to attempt to force the new Conservative Cabinet to build and administer its own facility in Kandahar.  They believed that in face of such a monumental task, it would be more probable for Canada to "cut and run" than incur that cost.  But in January 2006, the new Government refused the new facility, scoffed at leaving before 2012, and implemented an improved detainee agreement with the Afghan Gov't.  Most Opposition MPs see a political advantage to allow the unfolding of this travesty in order to embarrass the Conservative Gov't.  And the cynicism of Canadians towards adversarial partisan politics grows...

On the good news front (at least for PM Harper), we're predicting StatCan will announce within two weeks a January 2010 GDP growth rate of 7.3% & another decline in the Unemployment Rate.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada & the UK.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  It indicates today that the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical March 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 122 Seats, followed by:  117 Liberals, 27 NDP & 41 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own study is blended with other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on practitioner canvassing and the conversion of 7 national polls conducted Jan 29 to Mar 2 2010 by 7 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early March Election Campaign with a lead in 129 Ridings ... up 8 from thirty days prior.  The Bloc & NDP would start a late Autumn campaign with 47 & 32 Ridings respectively.  Despite Ignatieff's standing falling 7 Members to 100, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will eventually take the projection lead (January 2012), and is poised for an ultimate 120 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

Feb 14 2010:  Another month ... and another four weeks having to endure pacifists from both the Opposition and the mainstream media in their irrational quest to lay war crime charges against a score of members the Canadian military operation active in Afghanistan in 2006.  Almost escaping attention, was the high political price being paid by the Prime Minister for his second proroguing of Parliament.  The distasteful measure was absolutely necessary in order for him to secure a Conservative Majority in the Senate.

The end result was quite helpful to the Ignatieff Liberals.  Unfortunately for the Liberals, we're predicting StatCan will shortly announce a 2009Q4 GDP growth rate of 6.2%, as the economic recovery lays the foundation for further reductions in the Unemployment Rate.  Layered over this will be the patriotic enthusiasm building around successes at the Vancouver Olympics.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada & the UK.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  It indicates today that the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical February 1st Election Campaign with a lead in only 115 Seats, followed by:  121 Liberals, 27NDP & 45 BQ.

Conversely, when our own study is blended with other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 5 national polls conducted Jan 5 to Feb 2 2010 by 7 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early February Election Campaign with a lead in only 121 Ridings ... down 22 from thirty days prior.  The Bloc & NDP would start a late Autumn campaign with 48 & 32 Ridings respectively.  On top of Ignatieff's standing rising 22 Members to 107, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will eventually take the projection lead (December 2011), and is poised for an ultimate 114 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

Jan 27 2010:  The Harper Conservatives ended the year with a potential seat count equal to their status after the October 2008 election ... 143 seats.  Pacifists from both the Opposition and the mainstream media have hijacked political discussion for yet another month in their irrational quest to lay war crime charges against a score of members the Canadian military operation active in Afghanistan in 2006.

Core support for the Ignatieff Liberals seems to have been established in low 80's.  Unfortunately for the Liberals, we're predicting StatCan will shortly announce a 2009Q4 GDP growth rate of 6.2%, as the economic recovery lays the foundation for further reductions in the Unemployment Rate.  If that's not enuf bad news in the short term, layered over this will be the patriotic enthusiasm surrounding the Vancouver Olympics.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada & the UK.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  It indicates that the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical January 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 142 Seats, followed by:  92 Liberals, 30 NDP, 43 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own study is blended with other available models for a broader analysis, the findings as featured in our headline chart result.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 4 national polls conducted Dec 9-20 2009 by 5 active projection models (along with practitioner canvassing).  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early January Election Campaign with a lead in 143 Ridings ... no change from thirty days prior.  The Bloc & NDP would start a late Autumn campaign with 47 & 32 Ridings respectively.  Albeit Ignatieff's standing rose only three Members to 86, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will eventually take the projection lead (January 2012), and is poised for an ultimate 112 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.  This marks the third time since April that a Liberal Majority was not in the cards long term.

Dec 17 2009:  We've complained of the dysfunction in Ottawa for some time, and it's hard to believe that they could reach new lows.  But it's happened.  Despite all the urgent issues facing Canadians presently, pacifist-leaning parliamentarians have been attempting to hijack the political agenda.  The campaign has been facilitated by pacifist sympathizers within the mainstream Media.  On behalf of Amnesty Int'l & the BC Civil Liberties Assoc, certain MPs are abusing the Committee process to secure self-incriminating testimony from Canadian soldiers, diplomats, civil servants and other officials.  The intent is to prepare a damning dossier which will be presented to prosecutors at the Int'l Criminal Tribunal at the World Court in The Hague.

This effort has been brewing for some period of time.  To these MPs, the measure is payback for the despised extension of Canada's Afghan mission 'til 2011.  It is a two front attack with hopes of ending our participation in 2010.  One involves embarrassing Canada on the world stage via a war crimes investigation.  As many as 44 Canadians that have appeared or have been associated with the transfers could face war crimes charges based on MP actions to date.  At risk of arrest, such charges would prevent int'l air travel by said Canadian soldiers and others.

The other is a strategy to force the Canadian Gov't to build their own prisoner facility.  This is an inherited issue.  As background, rampant anti-Americanism within the Liberal Cabinet ranks prior to 2006 prevented Canada from handing off prisoners to the Americans for housing in their newly built Afghan facility.  Instead, Cabinet ordered troops to pass off the detainees directly to Afghan authorities, despite the known torture and abuse history.  This provided pacifists the ammunition to force the new Conservative Cabinet to build and administer its own facility in Kandahar.  They believed that in face of such a monumental task, it would be more probable for Canada to "cut and run" than incur that cost.  Admittedly the Opposition MPs see a political advantage to embarrassing the Conservative Gov't as well.

Critical hemorrhaging of Ignatieff support has been sutured for the moment.  Unfortunately for the Liberals, we're predicting StatCan will shortly announce an October GDP growth rate of 4.2%, as the economic recovery lays the foundation for further reductions in Unemployment Rate.  Then add the patriotic enthusiasm surrounding the Vancouver Olympics.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada & the UK.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  It indicates that on December 1st the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical Election Campaign with a lead in 148 Seats, followed by:  77 Liberals, 34 NDP, 48 BQ & 1 Indep't.

Today's broader analysis, as featured in our headline chart above, is based on the conversion of 6 national polls conducted Nov 7-25 2009 by 6 active projection models (plus practitioner canvassing).  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early December Election Campaign with a lead in 143 Ridings ... down from 150 thirty days prior.  The Bloc & NDP would start a late Autumn campaign with 49 & 33 Ridings respectively.  Albeit Ignatieff's standing rose only one Member to 83, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will eventually take the projection lead (March 2011), and is poised for an ultimate 125 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.  This marks only the second time since April that a Liberal Majority was not in the cards long term.

Nov 20 2009:  With Michael Ignatieff away licking his wounds, it's been rather a quiet month.  Pathetic as well some would say, as we watched some Liberal MPs (via tabloid-style Media facilitators) stoop to the equivalent level of ambulance-chasers as they pursued the noise-du-jour.  Right of center voters on both sides of the border are becoming impatient.  Sheesh, Sarah Palin events are outdrawing Obama.  Speaking of our favourite Trotskyite, while the whole world was celebrating the collapse of the Berlin Wall, Obama, Chavez & Layton were AWOL, no doubt mourning the anniversary of the death of international socialism.

But as the Media leaps off the Iggy bandwagon, Liberals should take solace that his post-honeymoon blues are neither unique nor fatal.  Just ask Stephen Harper.  After failing to pull the plug on the Martin Gov't in the Spring of 2005 (thanx, Belinda), the same Media was tar & feathering the Opposition Leader whilst openly attempting to recruit Peter Mackay.  From April to September that year, our riding projections for the Conservatives fell from 127 to 64 (see chart).  Then in phoenix fashion, Harper came back four months later (Jan/2006) to win governance with 124 MPs.  So the Ignatieff collapse from 125 to 82 these past few weeks is the first half of that same story.  The outcome is in his hands.  Unfortunately for the Liberals, we're predicting StatCan will shortly announce a September GDP growth rate of 5.2%, as the economic recovery lays the foundation for lower Unemployment Rates in Q1.  This and the Vancouver Olympics will draw the electorate from the doldrums.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada & the UK.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  It indicates that on November 1st the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical Election Campaign with a lead in 152 Seats, followed by:  82 Liberals, 26 NDP, 47 BQ & 1 Indep't.

Today's broader analysis, as featured in our headline chart, is based on the conversion of 8 national polls conducted Oct 5 - Nov 3 2009 by 9 active models (plus practitioner canvassing).  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early November Election Campaign with a lead in 150 Ridings ... up from 137 thirty days prior.  The Bloc & NDP would start an Autumn campaign with 48 & 28 Ridings respectively.  Albeit Ignatieff's standing has dropped from 95 to 82 Members, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will eventually take the projection lead (August 2010), and is poised for an ultimate 143 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.  This marks the first time since April that a Liberal Majority was not in the cards long term.

Nov 9th By-election update:  2 Conservatives, 1 NDP & 1 BQ elected

Oct 21 2009:  Contrary to MSMedia hype, and despite the recent Liberal misfortunes, there was virtually no chance of a Conservative Majority had there been an early October federal election.  With only a few weeks 'til the Vancouver Olympics, and no gain seen for any of the three Opposition Parties, a snap election prior to release of the Spring 2010 Budget is quite improbable.

The electorate seems as annoyed with the MSMedia as they are with jockeying politicians.  While TrendLines Research was forecasting positive GDP growth by 2009Q3, many in the Media were irresponsibly reporting the onset of a great depression.  The monthly update release of our Recession Meter yesterday confirms that in only days, last October, the Technical Recession escalated to Severe category.  That was a full month prior the NBER had declared that the USA had entered another contraction.

It caught most of Canada's economists by surprise.  In a July 31 2008 Fox interview, only days before economic contraction turned into a Severe Recession, Jeff Rubin, our newest member of the Lunatic Fringe, was ill-advising the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates 2% to avert 6% Inflation by January 2009. By Oct 31 2008, three months into the $131/barrel collapse in Crude Price, Rubin remained confident that new oil price records would be set in 2009 and that the Recession would be over by January 2009, with the Unemployment Rate cresting shortly at 7%.  The media continues to fawn over his $200/barrel forecasts for 2010.

Like the Opposition, it serves their purpose for those in the Media that have adopted tabloid-style journalism and talk down the economy by any means that adds to ratings or revenues.  TrendLines declared in August that the Recession had ended in June.  No problem ... now the Media is predicting a double dip!  And we're predicting 3.9% GDP will be announced by StatCan Nov 30th...

The TrendLines composite Riding Projections have been the most accurate measured over the last four elections Federally and for Ontario.  Its chart depicts the 8-model average of current seat projections.  It includes our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Election.  Today, it indicates that on October 1st the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical Election Campaign with a lead in 133 Seats, followed by:  105 Liberals, 24 NDP, 45 BQ & 1 Indep't.  Before his tragic announcement of non-confidence amidst his Quebec troubles, Michael Ignatieff had adopted a strategy that becoming Prime Minister is two-step measure.  He would like an interim election to raise his MP count from 77 by a couple of dozen or more before going for governance.

In our broader analysis, based on the conversion of 6 national polls conducted Sept 3-30 2009 by 8 active models, the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early October Election Campaign with a lead in 136 Ridings ... up from 123 thirty days prior.  Albeit Ignatieff's standing dropped from 111 to 95 Members, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will take the projection lead in January 2010, and is poised for an ultimate 164 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.  The Bloc & NDP would start an Autumn campaign with 48 & 29 Ridings respectively.

Sept 16th 2009:  MPs are back from their Summer break, but already Parliament appears to be as dysfunctional as ever despite the last minute reconciliation in June.  In the spirit of fence mending, Stephen Harper has since granted audience to Layton & Ignatieff but once.  Speaking of Layton, his quest to re-brand the NDP by an opportunistic association with closet Trotskyite, Barack Obama of the Democratic Party, ran aground at the Convention.

Question Period & Parliamentary Committees have been chaotic since November 2008.  Or is it Spring 2006?  The PM continues his complete disdain for the MSMedia & Opposition MPs.  He is governing as if in Majority mode.  He has become the most hated man on-the-Hill.  It particularly got bad with his illegal 2008 Election call.  Then his pompous Proroguing of Parliament to avoid a motion of non-Confidence made it much worse.  In Canada, convention dictates that the Prime Minister must have the Command of the House ... that means 155 MPs.  Harper has only achieved this by manipulation and trickery.

Our own Riding Projection was the most accurate in the 2008 Election.  Today it indicates that on Sept 1st the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical Election Campaign with a lead in 126 Seats, followed by:  122 Liberals, 14 NDP, 45 BQ & 1 Indep't.  Sensing this virtual extinction, Jack Layton coalesced this week and has agreed to support the Govt's Ways & Means motion - a confidence vote.  The Conservatives have dodged a bullet again.

But this episode only extends the aforementioned gridlock that has lasted almost a year.  If Stephen Harper cannot cast aside ideologue constraints and find the depth of character to co-operate with Opposition MPs in a Minority environment, the time is sincerely appropriate for the Governor General to seek an alternative MP to lead Canada's Government.  Upon the next failed Confidence vote, GG Jean should deny the PM his request for an Election ... a deed she in which she was amiss in September 2008, considering the newly legislated fixed Election Date.  Jean should take up her responsibilities under our Westminster Electoral System and offer governance to the Leader of the Opposition.

It is shameful that this week Canada faced the prospect of a fourth Election in slightly over five years.  The nation is at the verge of banana republic designation.  The Conservative Party does not deserve an Election for yet another fling at Majority.  It used up that chit with last year's Writ.  As uncomfortable and troubling the unholy Opposition alliance may feel, Westminster dictates that this is the preferred and correct option for Governor General Jean.

Albeit a rare measure for Canada, it is the dictated course of action as determined by decades of convention in dozens of nations around the world that share our Westminster model.  Consistency with electoral precedent is paramount to her favour  to a Prime Minister.  Her peers and Constitutional scholars demand it and will rebuke her is she falters (again).  In short, under the present atmosphere, an Election is undeserved and far too expensive, and should only be awarded should both Leaders of the Opposition Parties decline an offer to form a Government.  Of course this distasteful scenario can easily be averted by our PM practicing political maturity until October 2012.

In our broader analysis, we welcome Bernard von Schulmann (BC  Iconoclast) as the eighth available seat projection model for our monthly compilations.  Based on the conversion of 8 national polls conducted July 3 - Sept 4 2009 by 5 active models, the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early September Election Campaign with a lead in 123 Ridings ... up from 118 thirty days prior.  Albeit Ignatieff's metric dropped from 116 to 111 Members, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent lead in fortunes from this point onward, and is poised for an ultimate 180 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

August 10th 2009:  Without question the most exciting political event of the Summer break has been Jack Layton's proposal to drop the "New" from NDP.  It is visionary and could resolve the Party's 4th place quagmire in the long term.  This strategy sheds the visible ties with its Socialist roots and takes advantage of young/immigrant voter illiteracy to tie its fortunes with the present wave of popularity of Obama's Democratic Party.  Failure to reignite the Party in this fashion dooms the labour lobby group to an eventual merger with the Liberal Party in a "unite the left" inevitability.

The Liberal Party is no doubt recognizing its missed opportunity in June for triggering an Election and subsequent governance.  Opposition Leader Ignatieff failed to seize an opportunity where all news was bad news for the Conservative Party, and at a peak.  As TrendLines has been predicting for several months, the USA is not headed for a Depression.  Its Technical Recession became a Severe Recession in August 2008.  This contraction ended in May 2009, as will be announced by the NBER in January 2010.  American auto & new home sales have bottomed as foretold as well.

This bodes well for an imminent Canadian economic recovery.  Each succeeding month will bring better news for Canada & the Conservatives.  Our Technical Recession started August 2008, deteriorated to a Severe Recession in November. bottomed in January 2009 has most probably ended last month.  Ignatieff was correct in reading that the electorate doesn't want an Election.  But, he shall regret that June decision over the coming seasons as his numbers dwindle.

This puts at risk the Liberal Party's long term momentum.  The Leadership bump peaked in April.  Voters now appear to be in watchful-waiting mode, looking for qualities of leadership, team building & nonpartisanship among the two main Parties.  They seem tired of the "gotcha" tactics and general adversarial nonsense.

We welcome anonymous modeler CdnElectionWatch as the seventh available model for our monthly compilations.  The governing Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early August Election Campaign with a lead in 118 Ridings ... up from 113 in June.  Albeit, Ignatieff fortunes have dropped from 122 to 116, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent lead in sentiment after August 2009, and is poised for an ultimate 184 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

June 30th 2009: This was a month where the Conservatives were besieged by a perfect storm of bad news and events:  rising unemployment, flu buggery, sexy isotopes, an ominous $50+ Billion projected Deficit & expansion of the leftist media's luv affair with Iggy.  This indeed was a missed opportunity for the new Opposition Leader.  It is difficult to imagine a better time for him to seize an opportunity.  As TrendLines has been predicting for several months, the USA is not headed for a Depression.  Its Technical Recession became a Severe Recession in August 2008.  This contraction bottomed in March 2009, as will be announced by the NBER in January 2010.  American auto & new home sales have bottomed as foretold as well.

This bodes well for an imminent Canadian economic recovery.  Each succeeding month will bring better news for Canada & the Conservatives.  Harper has dodged the bullet ... more like a volley of scud missiles!  Ignatieff was correct in reading that the electorate doesn't want an Election.  But, he shall regret this decision over the next year.

After a year, the prospects depend upon the outcome of long term momentum.  The Leadership bump peaked in April.  Voters appear to be in watchful-waiting mode, looking for qualities of leadership, team building & nonpartisanship among the two main Parties...

The governing Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical late June Election Campaign with a lead in only 112 Ridings ... up from 109 in May.  Ignatieff's momentum stalled in May, but still he could have started the Writ period with a 123 seat lead.  Long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent lead in sentiment after August 2009, and is poised for an ultimate 185 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

June 13th 2009:  As the Opposition Leader prepares for his second "Probation Review" of the Gov't, pollsters seem eager to assist with that endeavour with a flurry of new surveys.

The previous Liberal leadership convention led to a 46-MP support bump by December 2006 for Dion.  Conversion of Spring 2009 national polls reveals that new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff made a similar 52-MP gain.  Unfortunately for the Liberal Party, their recent move started from a much lower core base, and Ignatieff is quagmired at 129-MPs whereas the Liberals surged to 143 potential seats during Dion's rally.

The ruling Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical mid-June Election Campaign with a lead in only 109 Ridings ... down from 112 in May.  Ignatieff's momentum stalled in March, but still he could have started the Writ period with a 129 seat lead.  Long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent lead in sentiment after August 2009, and is poised for an ultimate 190 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.  Our Election Day targets are of course vulnerable to interim events en route and subject to the dynamics within an ultimate Election Campaign.  This includes interventions by Party Leaders or membership to avert erosion of core support.

June 8th 2009:  The USA's Severe Recession climaxed in March, paving the way for the 2009Q3 expansion long predicted by TrendLines Research.  USA New Home sales bottomed in January, good news for Canada's lumber industry.  Existing Home Prices bottomed in January laying a foundation for consumer spending in the USA and renewed trade with Canada.  Car & truck sales bottomed in February, a sigh of relief for Ontario's auto sector.  Albeit this will again be a "jobless recovery", and the Unemployment Rate will drift higher over the next 12 months, Confidence levels are already making large gains.

This sets the stage for the next era of governing and an eventual Election.  The Gov't will point to rising GDP.  The leftist Media & the Opposition will highlight lingering sector layoffs and continue to talk down the Canadian Economy.  As mentioned last month, the era wherein Governor General Jean was more probable to offer governance to the Leader of the Opposition rather than allow the PM's request for another Election (upon a failed Confidence Vote) has expired.

The previous Liberal leadership convention led to a 46 MP support bump by December 2006 for Dion.  Conversion of Spring 2009 national polls reveals that new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff made a similar 48 MP gain.  Unfortunately for the Liberal Party, their recent move started from a much lower core base, and Ignatieff is quagmired at 125 whereas the Liberals surged to 143 potential seats during Dion's rally.

The ruling Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early June Election Campaign with a lead in only 112 Ridings ... up from 109 in April.  Ignatieff's momentum stalled in March, but still he could have started the Writ period with a 125 seat lead.  Long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent lead in sentiment after October 2009, and is poised for an ultimate 179 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

May 6th 2009:  30 weeks have passed since the October Election.  The era wherein Governor General Jean was more probable to offer governance to the Leader of the Opposition rather than allow the PM's request for another Election (upon a failed Confidence Vote) has expired.  Riding projections are no longer an academic exercise!

The previous Liberal leadership convention led to a 143 MP bump by December 2006 for Dion.  Conversion of April polls reveals that albeit Stephen Harper continues to hemorrhage support, rather little drifted to new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff over the last month.

The ruling Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical late April Election Campaign with a lead in only 109 Ridings ... down from 117 in March.  Ignatieff's momentum has stalled, but could have started the Writ period with a 125 seat lead.  Long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent lead in sentiment after January 2010, and is poised for an ultimate 166 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

April 3rd 2009:  (rev 9.0416) The last Liberal leadership convention led to a 143 MP bump by December 2007.  Conversion of March polls reveals yet more hemorrhaging of Harper & Layton support in favour of new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff.  A reminder that it is improbable that Governor General Jean will permit another Federal Election before July; and even at that it would be the fourth in five years.

Regardless, the Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical late March Election Campaign with a lead in 117 Ridings ... down from 123 in January.  Ignatieff's momentum raised his count to 124 from 115.  Long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent lead in sentiment after July 2010, and is poised for an ultimate 151 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

Feb 12th 2009:  The last Liberal leadership convention led to a 143 MP bump by December 2007.  Conversion of a flurry of early February polls reveals more hemorrhaging of Harper & Layton support in favour of new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff.  A reminder that it is improbable that Governor General Jean will permit another Federal Election before July; and even at that it would be the fourth in five years.

Regardless, the Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early February Election Campaign with a lead in 126 Ridings ... down from 134 in January.  OTOH, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take the lead in sentiment after June 2011, and is poised for an ultimate 130 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

Feb 7th 2009:  It is improbable that Governor General Jean will permit another Federal Election before July; and even at that it would be the fourth in five years.  Regardless, conversion of February's first national poll reveals more hemorrhaging of NDP support, and new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff is the beneficiary.  The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early February Election Campaign with a lead in 130 Ridings ... down from 134 in January.  OTOH, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take the lead in sentiment after August 2011, and is poised for an ultimate 130 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

Feb 1st 2009:  Now that Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has placed the Conservative Gov't on "probation", his March Review becomes the next milepost in this session's political soap.  Should PM Harper fail to win Confidence at that juncture, the Governor General has two options:

a) offer governance to the Liberal Leader, who in turn can reincarnate the Coalition or seek NDP & Bloc support for a Liberal led Accord;

b)  allow Harper to call the fourth General Election in less than five years, a mere 7 months from the recent Writ.

Regardless of the irresponsibility of the latter scenario, conversion of January's national polls reveals a significant loss of support for the governing Party since December, in favour of the NDP & Liberals.  The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical late January Election Campaign with a lead in 134 Ridings ... down from 160 in December.  OTOH, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take the sentiment lead in May 2012 and is poised for an ultimate 118 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012. 

Jan 21st 2009:  As Budget Day approaches, it remains uncertain at this time whether Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff will support the Conservatives, revive the Dion Coalition Agreement or simply garner NDP & BQ support for a Liberal-only Government.

It is improbable that the Governor General would agree to a Harper request for a fourth Federal Election in less than five years, upon a failed Confidence vote. None-the-less, conversions of January's national polls reveal a significant turn of sentiment towards the Liberals, especially in Quebec.  The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical mid-January Election Campaign with a lead in 135 Ridings.  OTOH, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party is poised for an ultimate 119 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

TrendLines Research tracked 17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008 Election.  3 of these have been active Post Election, plus this week we introduce a new practitioner:  ÉrikG of (threehundredeight.com).  The "Jan 17th" data point is derived by averaging the results of 3 of these models, in turn based on 5 national polls conducted Jan 3-17 2009.

Jan 19th 2009:  As Budget Day approaches, it remains uncertain at this time whether Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff will support the Conservatives, revive the Dion Coalition Agreement or simply garner NDP & BQ support for a Liberal-only Government.

Albeit it is improbable that the Governor General would agree to the prospect of a fourth Federal Election in less than five years upon a failed Confidence vote, conversion of January's national polls reveals a significant turn of sentiment towards the Liberals, especially in Quebec.  The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical mid January Election Campaign with a lead in 136 Ridings.  OTOH, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party is poised for an ultimate slim 116 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

Jan 10th 2009:  Four weeks ago, PM Stephen Harper averted losing governance to an Opposition Coalition by proroguing Parliament.  Should the January 27th Conservative Budget fail, it is uncertain at this time whether Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff would revive the Dion Coalition Agreement or simply garner NDP & BQ support for a Liberal-only Government.

Albeit it is improbable that the Governor General would agree to the prospect of a fourth Federal Election in less than five years, conversion of the first two national polls (Ipsos Reid & Nanos) of 2009 reveals a significant turn of sentiment towards the Liberals, especially in Quebec.  The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early January Election Campaign with a lead in 124 Ridings.  OTOH, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party is poised for an ultimate 136 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

Jan 9th 2009:  Four weeks ago, PM Stephen Harper averted losing governance to an Opposition Coalition by proroguing Parliament.  Should the coming Conservative Budget fail, it is uncertain at this time whether Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff would revive the Coalition Agreement or simply garner NDP & BQ support for a Liberal-only Government.

Albeit it is improbable that the Governor General would agree to the prospect of a fourth Federal Election in less than five years, conversion of the first national poll (Nanos) of 2009 reveals a significant turn of sentiment towards Michael Ignatieff, especially in Quebec.  The Liberals would have commenced a hypothetical early January Election Campaign with a lead in 136 Ridings.  Further, long term momentum indicates that the Liberals are poised for an ultimate 155 MP Majority upon the current Parliament's expiry in October 2012.

Dec 31 2008:  As the electorate digests the Opposition maneuverings surrounding the potential alliance of the Bloc Quebecois support of a Liberal-NDP Coalition, it is clear that the Conservative Party has been the sentiment beneficiary.  But, the surveys continue to reveal contradictions.  Albeit the most recent national poll reveals that voters favour the Coalition prospect, all of 'em show that should either the alliance break down, or the Governor General grants Stephen Harper's request for an Election upon a failed Confidence vote, most Canadians favour the Conservative Party.

Stephen Harper's task in this pre-Budget era involves adopting enuf left of center policy to entice the passing of the money bills whilst not alienating the right wing ideologues within his Party.

Today's conversion by 2 Riding Projection models reveals that the Conservatives have gained a slim Majority lead after a brief downturn in November.  The Conservative prospects would seem to be academic as it is improbable that another Election could occur 'til June 2009 at the earliest due to the recency of a Writ.

TrendLines Research tracked 17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008 Election.  3 of these are currently active Post Election, and the "Dec 27th" data point is derived by averaging the results of two of those models, which are in turn based on NIL canvassing surveys & 4 national polls conducted Dec 9-27  2008.

Dec 13  2008:  As the electorate recovers from the torrid pace of events over the last few weeks and weighs who the caretaker should be to guide us thru these tad tougher economic times, the sentiment closely reflects the recent Election.  The Ignatieff bump comes via regaining much support previously lost to the NDP, but in turn losing some core support to the Conservatives.

Today's conversion by 2 Riding Projection models of this week's Angus Reid & Ipsos Reid national polls reveals that the Conservatives have gained a slim Majority lead.  The Conservative revival is academic as it is improbable that another Election could occur 'til June at the earliest due to the recency of a Writ.

Governor General Jean continues to garner the wrath of constitutional scholars worldwide for her acquiescence to the Prime Minister's request for prorogation of Parliament.  Methinx she has the message loud & clear that upon a failed Confidence vote, she shall have no option but to award governance to the Liberal/NDP Coalition.  From this point, Stephen Harper is master of his own demise.

TrendLines Research tracked 17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008 Election.  3 of these are currently active Post Election, and the "Dec 12th" data point is derived by averaging the results of two of those models, which are in turn based on NIL canvassing surveys & 2 national polls conducted Dec 9-12  2008.

Dec 9  2008:  As they say, what a difference a day makes, eh!  Dion is out.  Rae is out.  Ignatieff is in.  With Canadians reassured that the Coalition is now just a hammer ... not an inevitability, the landscape is fundamentally changed.  Voters foresee that a Coalition is less probable under Ignatieff, but should that scenario unfold, it will have a firm hand, and not the scarier prospect of a socialist tribunal guided by Rae, Layton & Duceppe.  The outlook for a Harper landslide next Spring has been extinguished. 

With this turn of events, today's conversion by 2 Riding Projection models of the weekend's pertinent Angus Reid national poll reveals that the Conservatives continue to be ahead, but by the slimmest of leads.  The Liberal windfall also comes at the expense of the NDP.

TrendLines Research tracked 17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008 Election.  3 of these are currently active Post Election, and the "Dec 6th" data point is derived by averaging the results of two of those models, which are in turn not based on canvassing, but rather 1 national polls conducted Dec 5-6  2008.

Dec 8  2008:  Canadian & International convention with respect to the Westminster Parliamentary system deems it improbable that a Federal Election shall be held prior to June 2009.  Regardless, the Liberal Party seems intent on replacing Stéphane Dion just in case the Governor General surprises all concerned by ignoring the recency factor and allowing Stephen Harper a snap Election upon failure of the 2009 Budget or other Confidence motions.

Upon that prospect, today's conversion by 3 Riding Projection models of 6 early-December national polls reveals the Conservatives would enjoy a landslide victory in a Spring Election based on current sentiment.

TrendLines Research tracked 17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008 Election.  3 of these are currently active Post Election, and the "Dec 6th" data point is derived by averaging their results which are in turn not based on canvassing, but rather 6 national polls conducted Dec 2-6  2008.

The "Nov" data point was similarly based on 2 models converting 2 national polls conducted Nov 11-29  2008.

Dec 6  2008:  Well, what a difference a week makes, eh!  Prime Minister Harper dodged a bullet by seeking a prorogation of Parliament, thus avoiding a sure-to-fail Confidence vote.  But in so doing, such a public outrage has developed surrounding the possibility of a ruling Opposition Coalition, that the Conservative fortunes have taken them from an embarrassing 113 potential MPs in November to an astonishing 204 this week.  In turn, the Dion's Liberals go from 116 to a mere 39 MPs.  Regardless of the Coalition being a legal ploy, folks are really troubled by this eventuality.  Ironically, this degree of punishment would see the Bloc resume their role as Her Majesty's Official Opposition.

There are rumours that Liberal MPs are circulating a petition to have Dion step down by the next Caucus meeting.  With public sentiment this one-sided, it is improbable that the Opposition will attempt to defeat the January 27th Budget.  But ... just in case this happens, Party Officials don't like the prospect of going to the electorate with Dion at the helm.  IMHO, it is not likely that Governor Genera Jean will grant Harper an Election upon non-Confidence.  It will have been 14 weeks since the 2008 contest.  But to be prudent, the Liberals gotta do what they gotta do.

The Liberal leadership contest finally has its wedge issue.  Rae is stalwart pro-Coalition.  Ignatieff seems to be back pedaling, and allowing Harper some "wiggle room' in case this proposition turns south, recognizing that he doesn't want to be on the wrong side of public opinion.

Getting back to our second post-Election Seat Projection:

Today's conversion by 2 Riding Projection models of 4 early December national polls (Leger, Ipsos Reid, EKOS & COMPAS) reveals the current status:  43 BQ, 204 Conservatives, 39 Liberals, 20 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs (Que & NS).  With the improbability of an Autumn Election, long term momentum indicates these targets for the fixed Election in 2012:  63 BQ, 157 Conservatives, 51 Liberals, 35 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs.  These standings are of course vulnerable to the dynamics of an ultimate Election Campaign and interim events.

The "Dec 4th" data point is derived by averaging 2 of 17 recognized post-2006 Riding Projection models.  These recent model results are not based on canvassing, but rather 4 national polls conducted Dec 2-4  2008.

The "Nov" data point is derived by averaging 2 of 17 recognized post-2006 Riding Projection models.  These recent model results are not based on canvassing, but rather 2 national polls conducted Nov 11-29  2008.

Nov 29 2008:  We're back!!  Regular TrendLiners won't be surprised that the tracking is back on.  It was no secret that i was sincerely troubled by Stephen Harper's decision to ignore his own fixed election legislation.  I considered his request for a Writ an illegal action.  One that would yield a heavy price when Parliament resumed.  The absence of an outcry by the Opposition Parties meant "the trap" was set...

Let's recall my pre-Writ and mid-Campaign analysis:

It will also be recalled that each of our Daily Charts from Sept 24th included a "Coalition tally".

As the world unfolded as predicted this week, it seems only internal spats within the Liberal Party can derail this scenario.  Some don't want Stéphane Dion as PM;  some fear a Cndn Dollar and/or TSE Index collapse upon rumours of Jack Layton positioning himself to be Finance Minister as part of the Coalition.

The actions taken on Friday were a delayed reaction due to the Liberals being distracted by their own lynching intentions.  Being a Minority, the Harper Cabinet was sworn in this month at the pleasure of the Opposition.  By Westminster conventions, the responsibility of Governance can be taken away at any time.  The Governor General will have no basis in law or convention for disallowing the request of the Opposition to resume governance as the majority camp of MPs.

They can propose two alternatives:  a Coalition (NDP & Liberals share Cabinet positions) that excludes the Bloc Quebecois for public relations realities;  or a ruling Opposition whereby the BQ & NDP agree (verbally via House Leaders or in written agreement) to support the Liberals as the replacement Gov't.  The Bloc appear willing to either scenario at this time.

The Governor General has the responsibility of handing over governance to the group of MPs that has the Confidence of the majority of MPs.  Today, that is clearly the 163 Opposition MPs (77-L, 49-BQ & 37-NDP) vs the failed 145 Gov't side MP(143-C & 2 Indept's).  She has no options in law or by convention.  An Election is out of the question due to recency.

Anyway, i digress ... so let's get to the first post-Election Seat Projection:

Today's conversion by 2 Riding Projection models of the initial post-Election national poll (Nanos) reveals the current status:  47 BQ, 103 Conservatives, 114 Liberals, 42 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs (Que & NS).  With the improbability of an Autumn Election, long term momentum indicates these targets for the fixed Election in 2012:  66 BQ, 52 Conservatives, 128 Liberals, 60 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs.  These standings are of course vulnerable to the dynamics of an ultimate Election Campaign and interim events.

The "Nov" data point is derived by averaging 2 of 17 recognized post-2006 Riding Projection models.  These recent model results are not based on canvassing, but rather 1 national poll conducted Nov 11-15  2008.

This month's results are based on our own applications of the H&K Predictor and the Antweiler Matrix Forecaster, followed by a final overlay of our Long Term Momentum Indicator.

xxx

2008 Pre-Election Blog

    2006 Canadian Election Models Scoreboard   ~   2004 Canadian Election Models Scoreboard   ~   2007 Ontario Election Models Scoreboard  

 #1 Projection in 2008!

Nov 6 ~ TrendLines Research Monthly Tracker was the most accurate projection model of the 2008 Campaign ... followed by Paul Adams (EKOS) & Socialist Paul (Paulitics). This chart was not publicly available during the Campaign, but has been familiar to TrendLiners as our "between-writ" chart since April 2005.

 #1 Projection Model across 4 Elections!

Nov 6 ~ With a 4th place finish in 2008, TrendLines Research Daily Multi-Model Tracker becomes the most accurate of all the online projection models that attempted to predict the 2004/2006/2008 Canada & 2007 Ontario Elections ... followed by Barry Kay (LISPOP) & Milton Chan.

MP Seat Projection for Oct 14th 2008 Canadian Federal General Election:

March 1st 2007 - Please note that the TrendLines Federal Riding Projections will re-commence on April 5th !!

Evalina and i were fortunate to meet PM Stephen Harper during his visit to the Yukon to open the Canada Winter Games last month.  The PM has cast aside his ideological bias in recent months to facilitate governance rather than Party preference.  It is a strategy that has untold ramifications wrt gaining new sentiment while alienating some core support.

Jan 23 2006 - Election Results added to graph.  As mentioned Sunday, the models failed to forecast the 127 Liberal MP's in the 2004 Election.  Despite the advantage of analysis of the Sunday polls this time around, the six models again failed to distribute the Undecided significantly.  And failed to forecast a 29 Liberal MP thrust.  Ontario again was the modelers downfall.  Only the SES poll showed the 7% turnaround on Sunday by the Liberals.  The CPC led in Ontario by 2% going into the weekend.  Sunday aft the Liberals had a 5% lead.  The NDP did pick up much of the Undecided during the last week of the Campaign and rose to a campaign high of 35.  However, the Liberals got them on the last day.

  The February 2007 Federal Budget will be a Confidence test but the Electorate will have no appetite for another trip to the Ballot Boxes.  February 2008 is our target to try this all again.  In the meantime, TrendLines will, as in the past, post the Riding Projections indicated by future poll releases.

Visit us on Friday.  We will post a summary of the six models and this year's best forecaster.

2006 Jan 23rd 4pm Final Update:  Based on the Federal Election Campaign to date, TrendLines is currently projecting a Conservative Party Minority of 140 MP's on Election Day (Jan 23rd 2006).  Our Political Analyst, Freddy Hutter, has been predicting a Tory Minority since Nov 30th based on their momentum from mid September to date.  The balance of Election Day Forecasts are projected as:

Upon new national poll releases, the Seat Projection will be updated daily at Noon (PST).  FYI, based on Riding Projection movement during the 2004 Campaign and since, the Liberal Party drifted in a range that would yield 87-173 MP's, the Conservative Party had a range of 58-127 MP's, the BQ 53-67 MP's & the NDP 17-40 MP's.  The Liberals are thus running below core support at times & the Conservatives are attaining new highs.

Jan 23rd:  Three major pollsters have continued their polling into Sunday.  In the 2004 Election, only EKOS picked up the last weekend turnaround of fortunes for the Liberal Party.  Our projection (below) shows that the Liberals gained 27 Ridings in that last flurry.  Awesome work by Paul Martin, we must agree.  The frantic polling over the weekend reflects the fear that lightning may strike twice.  But this time there is no evidence of a change in sentiment.  Only a desire for "change".

The polls are saying it all.  The Conservatives never hit 38% popular opinion in the Spring 2005 excitement.  They never hit 38% during the 2004 Election Campaign.  Last week, two polling firms showed them attaining 40% for the first time.  This week they reached 42%.  And the Liberals have a huge problem.  If they play their negative attack ads, the public and even the media chastises them liberally.  If they don't play them, they can't catch up.  And there are indications that the Undecided will lean towards the NDP in the remaining days.

While the daily announcements by Stephen Harper of planks in the Tory platform seem to do nothing, and a Decima/Carleton Journalism poll suggests that his ads are actually driving folks to vote Liberal, it seems that the hand gun announcement by Paul Martin is the first wedge issue that is polarizing voters.  It is causing concern and anger in SW Ontario and the West and we are seeing up to ten percent in poll movement from Liberal to Conservative over the fear of rifles being the next target of confiscation.  This should lead to the first momentum turn of our Riding Projections and continue the rising tide of support for the Conservatives that began after Labour Day and is the basis thus far for our CPC target win on Election Day.   An early Strategic Counsel survey has revealed that 55% of the Undecided will not vote Conservative 'cuz they are not familiar with that Party's policies and current platform.  OTOH, 67% will not vote Liberal due to ethics concerns.  It is clear that during the course of the campaign it will be easier for Harper to explain intended legislation during his mandate than it will be for Martin to rid himself of association with Liberal Party corruption charges, admissions and (Gomery) findings.  Barring new developments and performances at the Debates, this indicates a slow rise in support for the Conservatives as they reveal their stance.

Political Analyst, Gregory Morrow of UCLA, has an interesting theory.  As he watches recent Canadian polls he firmly believes that strategic voting is being done by NDP supporters i.e. they see Conservative strength reach the threshold where they are poised for governance, NDP supporters turn on fringe or losing NDP candidates and shift their support to the local Liberal candidate.  This confirms my belief that it is wiser for the Jack Layton and the NDP to leverage their "balance of power" position than strive form several more seats.  Thus, as we see in the Projection graph above, there seems to be linkage between the NDP seats and the Conservative seats.

2004/6/27
To: Press Release
To: TrendLines subscribers and courtesy mailing list

What a Difference a Week Makes, eh!

Sober second thought or an anomaly? As visitors to our website have seen over the last ten days, it's turned into a horse-race. On June 16th we saw a peaking of Conservative popularity which, if the trend had held, would have given their party 155 votes, precisely the min number required for a majority gov't. Then the polls last weekend started collapsing and by June 24 the Liberals had actually moved ahead (by one seat) in an Ipsos-Reid seat projection ... as well as many public opinion polls. At the same we saw polls of the view of Harper as best Prime Minister drop several points behind Martin.

Election Day is tomorrow. We augment our graph today with another below illustrating an indication of where our Projections for the Conservative Party by Election Day were as the campaign developed (as opposed to that point in time). It was truly exciting albeit a lesson again in the success of negative advertising and misinformation.

SES/CPAC nightly polling and rolling averages illustrates that 57% of the voting public believes it is "time for change" ... only down 4% from the campaign high. This indicates that folks still want Change ... but the negative ads have struck fear in them as far as voting for the Conservatives. And the NDP and Green are considered to be too marginal.

Since May 31st, TrendLines has been predicting a Conservative minority gov't based on the trending shown above ... and on June 16th we foresaw the slim hope for majority status but today we see election day results of 117 seats for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives, 105 for Paul Martin and the Liberals, 60 for the B-Q, 25 for the NDP and one Independent in BC (former Conservative incumbent). This incorporates projections of Liberal wins by EKOS and Milton Chan & a Conservative win by Ipsos-Reid and Barry Kay.  As a late addition, we also add to the table Andrew Heard of SFU and Alan Hall's Electoral Engineering studies at GP Murray Research.

Here's the roller-coaster ride that Harper and the Conservatives will re-live and analyze 'til "the next election". With the prospect of minority gov't, guess we'll be in contact sooner rather than later ...
Freddy H>

Some of the graphing methodology is explained below:
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NOTE:
me:  During the '93 federal election i left my position as Reform Kitchener Riding President to spend more time on polling via my firm, TrendLines. We did constituency polling in s-w Ontario for 5 ridings at that time, an expansion of our roots in the 1990 Provincial Election.  In Jan/99 we relocated to BC & have settled on the shores of Howe Sound in a cabin off the Sea-to-Sky Hwy. In the "off-season", Evalina and i provide coaching and financial planning strategies to micro entrepreneurs.

seat projections: A hybrid to national and provincial public opinion polling is to analyze the results to reflect how they would translate to riding support. As u know, the concentration of support is more important than broad support. That's how the Reform party translated its results in the '97 election into so many seats while the PC's, with more popular support got much fewer. This data methodology is spearheaded by colleague Dr Barry Kay at WLU and its record for errors for each party may be counted on just one hand! This year's data encompasses studies by Ipsos-Reid, EKOS, Andrew Heard, Alan Hall & Milton Chan as well. The apr/may/jun results are a compilation of these six seat projectors in Canada. The "election day projection" is my own prediction of where the trend lines will subside.

redistribution proxy: There are 308 seats up for grabs this month, 7 more than y2k, due to population increases. At the same time, many boundaries are altered to accommodate the changed riding sizes. The graph's Redistribution Proxy (third column) shows what the y2k election would have looked like using the y2k votes at poll centres but under these new riding boundaries. If u notice the first column, it shows the actual y2k results ... thus thru redistribution ... if folks did not change their vote and new voters are ignored ... the liberals go from 172 in y2k to 142, pc's & alliance from 78 to 118 as unified conservatives, b-q stay at 38 and NDP drop from 13 to 10.
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Please contact me anytime with comments or questions. Feel free to distribute data if referenced.

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