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Sunday Dec
16 5pm (oztime) Update
to above chart: TrendLines
Count Projection -
Coalition 65, 2 Indies; Labour 83 (with max upside
potential of 85)
William Bowe & Andrew Leigh looking brilliant thus
far ... 3 seats still in doubt with a 94% count. Scroll down
to see how each of the 9 Seat Projection pundits fared. We
have a scoreboard
below!
Above, the Nov 24 chart
pre-Election status of 88/60/2 (and all figures since the 2004 Election)
are the compiled avg of available recognized Riding Projections.
Each projection model has its own methodology of converting
polling/canvassing data to estimates of winnable Seats by the
Parties. The final "today" conversion is based on all 9 prediction
models and their analysis of recognized polling/canvassing completed
Nov 1 - 23.
Nov 21 2007:
As the campaign winds
down, it's again time to bring out our Scoreboard. While there are
lotsa predictions floating around, membership is limited to those
who provided regular Seat number crunching guidance during the
current Campaign. Please
hit me with an email if i missed a
recognized player or made an error. Honourable mention to Antony Green for providing many of the models
with his Seat Calculator! And my thanx to all...
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How did the Riding Projection models
fare? |
|
ACTUAL
80% of count |
|
Australian Election
2007
|
|
William Bowe
PollBludger |
Peter Brent
Mumble |
Simon Jackman
Stanford
|
Geoff Lambert
PollBludger |
Andrew Leigh
PortlandBet |
Malcolm Mackerras
NSW |
Bryan Palmer
OzPolitics |
Kevin
Possum |
Aristotle
FairNews |
TrendLines 9-model Avg |
|
Labor |
84 |
89 |
81 |
97 |
82 |
90 |
88 |
87 |
93 |
88 |
83 |
|
Coalition |
64 |
59 |
67 |
51 |
66 |
58 |
60 |
61 |
55 |
60 |
65 |
|
Indies/other |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
| 77777777777777777777777777777777777777777777 |
| Riding Errors: |
|
2 |
12 |
4 |
28 |
2 |
14 |
10 |
8 |
20 |
10 |
Cndn scores |
| Rating: |
"1" |
7 |
"3" |
10 |
"1" |
8 |
5 |
4 |
9 |
5 |
Nov 24 2007
10am: To
prevent the advantage of exit polling taints, we've shut down the
grid. It's up to the voters now...
Nov 17 2007:
Little movement in the
latter stages. Voters have seen the Debate and perused the
platforms. Now they pause & reflect at the edge of the
precipice...
Nov 13 2007:
Folks from the land
down under comprise our 5th largest audience of TrendLiners and
so it was with great pleasure that we introduced this weekly tracking
of the Australian Federal Election set for Nov 24th.
The Australian
Parliament has a 150-seat House of Representatives with half the
members seeking re-election every three years. The 76-seat
Senate has 40 members seeking office next week. Prime Minister
John Howard presently leads a coalition of the Liberal Party &
National Party, having 87 seats in the H-of-R & 39 in the Senate.
Kevin Rudd leads the Labor Party with its 60 members and is poised
to gain victory next Saturday in the compulsory vote.
Our 2007 projections are
based on a blending of 8 Seat Projection Models (by William Bowe,
Peter Brent, Simon Jackman, Geoff Lambert, Andrew Leigh, Malcolm
Mackerras, Bryan Palmer & Kevin "Possum" & "Aristotle"
... all who do
stellar work for little recognition). Their studies
involve the conversion of sentiment revealed in Canvassing and/or published
national/regional Public Opinion Poll data
(with avg 3% margin of error) into Projections of how many members each
Party would win at the time the data was taken (not Election Day).
Over 50
post-2004 Election polls have been crunched by some of the models for the pre-Campaign tallies;
Most of the models'
conversions
apply the Election Calculator designed by Antony Green. Please
note that fine tuning of the models sometimes affects older figures on the chart
and several chart values have been deleted for
clarity. Only the Yukon
Projection includes direct polling by TrendLines. Scroll
around
or use the menu for our "Race for the Kremlin",
Canadian Federal, Ontario, Newfoundland/Labrador, Quebec, Yukon, UK & "Race for the
Whitehouse" projections.
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2008/Nov Race for the Whitehouse
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