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Trendlines Research  ...  Providing macro-economic charts & guidance for Legislators, Policymakers, Investors & Stakeholders
long-term multi-disciplinary perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989 - TRENDLines removes the noise from economic data to reveal the underlying trends

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FreeVenue Chart-of-the-Day  (last 25 graphs)

covid may28

Projected Covid19 Fatalities - Spring 2020

BC
Ontario Canada
UK
USA
World
May 26
217
2,480 7,870
41,100 119,000
420,000
May 26
225
2,3907,590
41,600119,000
420,000
May 24
224

7,470

120,000
420,000
May 22
223

7,300

117,000
409,000
May 20
196

7,040

111,000
403,000
May 18
193

7,135

110,000
406,000
May 16
180

7,125

111,000
396,000
May 14
174

7,025

109,000
381,000
May 12
189

6,850

105,000
386,000
May 10
222

6,900

116,000
393,000
May 8
183

6,860

119,000
339,000
May 6
202

6,475

103,000
352,000
May 4
200

6,000

95,000
386,000
May 2
205

5,900

117,000
380,000
Apr 30
238

5,120

80,000
380,000
Apr 28
176

3,960

70,500
314,000

COVID19 PANDEMIC MITIGATION MAY HAVE THRUST USA ECONOMY into TECHNICAL RECESSION in MARCH 2020

May 14 2020 - The TRENDLines Recession Indicator was the first to reveal the magnitude of the Great Recession in real time.  In the 2013 chart below, TRI was forecasting a USA austerity crisis occurring in 2024 due to an uncontrolled $26 trillion National Debt.  But that day has been preempted by a black swan event:  the TrumpVirus - a crisis of epic proportions in mismanagement, lack of containment & mitigation failures - resulting in 90k fatalities & 40k lost jobs (thus far).

Despite interventions by Federal Reserve via its monetary policy tool box and fiscal policy injections of trillions of dollars by Congress, it appears the  American economy will suffer long-term consequences.  Today's "real" Unemployment Rate (U-6) may be exceeding the 26% high (1933) in the Great Depression.  It is likely GDP plunged over 20% in March, dwarfing the 2008 & 1980 downturns.

Whether the economy entered a Technical Recession will depend on how many months (6?) there is a net shedding of jobs.  Under observation is the net economic offset between returning jobs via Trump's "Opening Up America Again" versus job losses due to ongoing micro/small business failures in the aftermath of the TrumpVirus.  GDP did not re-attain its pre Great Recession level 'til mid 2011.  In the absence of a vaccine 'til say mid 2021, it is unlikely employment & GDP will get back to pre-Covid19 levels 'til 2023.

Should GDP decline for at least 4 quarters, this event will have escalated to a defined Severe Recession if avg GDP over the period exceeds -2%.  GDP must exceed -4% for at least 8 quarters for this to be a defined Depression and -8% for four years to be called a Greater Depression.
 
TRI USA long

the traditional definitions

TECHNICAL RECESSION:  Avg Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP) declines 0% to 2% for at least 2 Quarters
SEVERE RECESSION:  Avg GDP declines 2% to 4% for at least 4 Qtrs (1 yr)
DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines 4% to 8% for at least 8 Qtrs (2 yrs)
GREATER DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines over 8% for at least 16 Qtrs (4 yrs)

RECOVERY PERIOD:  monthly/quarterly nominal GDP expanding but remains below pre-contraction peak
EXPANSION PERIOD: 
monthly/quarterly nominal GDP finally exceeds pre-contraction peak

STRUCTURAL GDP (TRIX):  Adjustment to GDP reflecting fiscal policy Deficit/Surplus to reveal growth rate of underlying economy
 
UPPER CLASS:  family wealth (net worth) is among the top 1% of society
MIDDLE CLASS:  family income is among the top 10% of society
WORKING CLASS:  all the rest...

a note from the author to returning TRENDLiners & new visitors...

May 2 2020:  In the good ol'e days I posted new charts every day.  I had to take a break but recent global events have drawn me back.  These Covid19 graphs are my first public postings since 2013.  The website has been dormant - hence the tired & dated look - some would say ugly!  I promise to improve it over the coming weeks (months?). 
Due to the time sensitivity of the pandemic issue, the Covid19 charts will be posted directly to this homepage instead of the normal 90-day exclusive preview at the MemberVenue.

To update loyal TRENDLiners, my 7-yr posting hiatus stems from a decision by Evalina and me to care for my mom with Alzheimers.  Now 88, she is otherwise in great physical health and very kind-hearted.  She left Woodstock Ontario in 2013 to live with us in The Yukon.

You may recall when I started this website we resided in an ocean-front cabin on the Whistler Sea-to-Sky corridor, prior to our 10-yr engagement North of 60.  We loved the Northern Lights and wildlife and were not intimidated by the -47C temps.

But we truly missed our Mediterranean garden and weren't crazy about the mosquitoes & no-see-ums.  So when my mom (ex Cocoa Beach snowbird) suggested we all move down to balmy Vancouver Island, there was little hesitation - and in late 2014 packed up a 26' U-Haul for the 2,500-km trek down the Alaska-Canada Hwy back to BC.

Growing up, my dad was my best friend:  skiing, seeding the luv of cars & road trips, sailboat racing, fishing, politics, nurturing gardening & landscaping ... and lotsa intellectual stimulation.  He died early of prostate cancer in '96.

That said, it was my mom who most of my life subsidized (& was patient with) my hobbies and vices ... especially during the inevitable struggle years most entrepreneurs endure.  So for me it was a case of payback time.

If there was a list it would include (but not limited to) gifting me her '67 Mustang after University; assistance acquiring my 4 Firebirds; befriending 3 daughter-in-laws; countless CARE Pkg's; & helping me restore my Morgan NA-40 offshore racing yacht - etc etc.

I'm looking forward to the Georgia Strait regatta circuit & perhaps circumnavigating the Island some day.  But I have digressed...

I sincerely never dreamed family home-care would be so demanding and last this long.  Mom still lives with us and some day she will enter a nursing home ... but not a wise time right now!

It was when that day arrives I had intended to come back to TRENDLines.  As you can see, the pandemic has accelerated my return.
  Partly with concern for my mom's vulnerability, I had been watching the BC, Canadian & int'l Covid19 stats.  Like everyone, I was of course anticipating the infamous "flattening of the curve" - but I was extremely frustrated most jurisdictions were withholding their models' total projected deaths counts in this politically correct environment.

As each daily-deaths peak went by (April 12th in BC), I noticed the downslope of the curves were quite similar to my peak oil graphs.  A few very late nites later I was able to use my linearization formulae to project BC's MIA total fatalities count.  And shortly thereafter I had numbers for Canada, USA & globally.  I hope you find 'em enlightening and give y'all some perspective in this first wave.

cheers from Deep Bay Marina, Vancouver Island
Freddy Hutter

May 28 2020 (90-day delay waived!) FreeVenue public release of May 28 2020 TRENDLines MemberVenue guidance


click today's chart to visit its unique page for related tables, guidance, background &/or more graphs - - chart archives @ MemberVenue only


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send email to Freddy Hutter with questions, comments or navigation corrections with respect to this web site
 Last modified:  May 28, 2020  ~  (   1989-2020 Trendlines Research)


keywords:  projection prediction forecast indicate guess estimate how many people will die perish in bc british columbia canada canadians usa americans united states globe world worldwide earth result from corona virus covid-19 pandemic flu death toll daily total cumulative fatalities perish victims trendlines freddy hutter CDC IHME model pplm post-peak linearization social physical distancing


420,000 WORLDWIDE FATALITIES FORECAST for SPRING 2020 due to NOVEL CORONAVIRUS COVID19

ULTIMATE USA TARGET 119,000;  UK 41,100;  CANADA 7,870;  ONTARIO 2,480 & BC DEATHS 217

May 28 2020 - Today's chart update indicates the ultimate fatalities resulting from the Covid-19 novel coronavirus in Spring 2020 will be:  217 in BC (present toll 162); 2,480 in Ontario (present toll 2264); 7,870 in Canada (present toll 6,876); 41,100 in the UK (present toll 37,400); 119K in the USA (present toll 103K); & 420K total global deaths (present toll 357K).

Relaxed restrictions wrt stay-at-home, physical distancing & masking have been pushing up death rates at the global level, in Canada, Ontario & BC.  OTOH, the USA & UK are setting new post-peak lows in their daily deaths curves.

It remains an outrage that in the fourth month of this pandemic many health workers and first responders around the world still lack sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) and timely accurate testing.

BC
British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off.  Wise leadership quickly contained the spread and both jurisdictions are on paths to normality.  Credit to BC in being among the first to bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences.

Residents of BC facilities comprise 70% of total fatalities.  BC boasts only 50 incidences per 100k population (15/100k on Vancouver Island).

BC fatality rate:  32 deaths/million population

ONTARIO
Recently added to the model runs.  Ontario has initiated an Inquiry Commission due to the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities.

Ontario's fatality rate:  147 deaths/million

CANADA
Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there's no surprise that this sector saw the most confirmed cases.  82% of fatalities-to-date are long-term care and seniors home residents/staff.  Not a single American State exceeds this metric.

Canada's fatality rate:  180 deaths/million

UK
Recently added to the model runs.  Comprises only 1% of global population but has 11% of the Covid19 deaths.  No resurgence to date...

UK's fatality rate:  556 deaths/million (3rd worst in world)

USA
Passed the 100K count this week.  During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th, the President stated to the Fox News host:

"You'll have packed churches all over the country.  It would be a resurrection of biblical proportions.  I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter.  It would be a beautiful thing. "Our country has to get back to work, otherwise it's going to be very hard to start it up again.  We can't lose the the advantage we have."

It was on this precise day America was inflicted with "the TrumpVirus".  On that same day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

But it marked the day everything changed.  And leads one to ask why then does the USA today have 1/3 of known world Covid cases & 29% of global body bags?  The answer is founded in its citizenry electing a reality show celebrity as its President.  His failure to mitigate Covid-19's spread runs the length of his stay in office.

Albeit Obama's Homeland Security Chief (Lisa Monaco) briefed the incoming transition team with a robust "playbook", un-indicted Individual-1 shut down the White House's National Security Council's Pandemic Unit in 2018.  Dr Dennis Carol's Predict Program was cancelled by the White House in 2019.  And 'cuz their very public warnings were rocking the stock markets in Feb/2020, CDC's renowned disease experts Sarah Messonnier & Dr Bright were abruptly reassigned.

This prudent planning team was replaced by a muse "this flu will just go away with warm April sunshine".  After his "miracle" failed, the self-proclaimed "extremely stable genius" promoted to his cult following:  hydroxychloroquine & disinfectant injections and internal UV light remedies.

And it appears many continue to drink the Kool-Aid.  Prior to flattening their curves, mostly "red States" have been relaxing physical distancing, stay-at-home policies & masking.  Trump's "Opening Up America Again" campaign is rooted in politics.

To date he has failed to attain Obama's multiple 5% GDP growth rates.  Q1 & Q2 were his last-kick-at-the-can - hence his nonsensical dampened pandemic rhetoric thru January, February & March.  With Q1 going negative, he knew his Nov/2020 Election demise would depend in large part on Apr/May/June GDP.

The motive for his March 25th plea for Easter church goers to return to work April 14th is clear.  As a ratings savvy guy, he knows Q2 GDP will be announced on the first Friday in August, then amended the first Fridays in Sept & Oct.  He is risking a second TrumpVirus (case/deaths) surge this Spring only to salvage his legacy.  He desperately wants to avoid voters going to the polls weighing The Donald alone was at fault for a probable record 26% Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash ever ... over 20%.

This despicable reasoning is why America has 100,000 body bags...

USA's fatality rate:  300 deaths/million (9th worst in world)

WORLDWIDE
The global target had been generally stable 'til recently.  Asia & Europe are carefully normalizing this month with warnings of renewed restrictions should a material second wave surface.

Worldwide fatality rate:  46 deaths/million

The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION MODEL (PPLM)

These 4 Covid19 projections are produced by our linearization model.  It analyzes subtle changes in the gradient of the post-peak downslope of the daily-deaths curve for each jurisdiction.  The graph's data points move left to right chronologically above its date's cumulative death toll on the x-axis.  The intersection of their trendline at the x-axis indicates the probable ultimate total deaths by Summer solstice.  As daily data points are added, a high data pt (incr fatality rate) will shift the bottom of the trendline to the right and a higher fatalities count ... and vice versa.

There is no medical component aside from tracking the daily & cumulative fatalities.  This is strictly a mathematical model based on nuanced changes in the post-peak fatality rate.  On request, I can similarly chart any nation, State or Province - presented alone or with comparatives.  This same linearization methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has successfully predicted global oil production depletion since 2004.

About TRENDLines Research
Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in economic data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts;  & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.

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