420,000 WORLDWIDE FATALITIES FORECAST for SPRING 2020 due to NOVEL CORONAVIRUS COVID19
ULTIMATE USA TARGET 119,000; UK 41,100; CANADA 7,870; ONTARIO 2,480 & BC DEATHS 217
May 28 2020 - Today's chart update
indicates the ultimate fatalities resulting from the Covid-19 novel
coronavirus in Spring 2020 will be: 217 in BC (present toll 162);
2,480 in Ontario (present toll 2264); 7,870
in Canada (present toll 6,876); 41,100 in the UK (present toll 37,400); 119K in the
USA (present toll 103K); & 420K total global deaths (present toll 357K).
Relaxed restrictions wrt
stay-at-home, physical distancing & masking have been pushing up
death rates at the global level, in Canada, Ontario & BC.
OTOH, the USA & UK are setting new post-peak lows in their daily
It remains an outrage that in the
fourth month of this pandemic many health workers and first responders around
the world still lack sufficient
personal protective equipment (PPE) and timely accurate testing.
British Columbia &
Washington State were the
first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off.
Wise leadership quickly contained the spread and both
jurisdictions are on paths to normality. Credit to BC in being among the first to bar
family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending
multiple long-term residences.
Residents of BC facilities comprise 70% of total
fatalities. BC boasts
only 50 incidences per 100k population (15/100k on
BC fatality rate: 32 deaths/million population
Recently added to the model runs. Ontario has initiated an
Inquiry Commission due to the crisis in long-term seniors care
Ontario's fatality rate: 147 deaths/million
media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect
and under-staffing, so there's no
surprise that this sector saw the most confirmed cases. 82% of fatalities-to-date are long-term care and
seniors home residents/staff. Not a single American State exceeds
Canada's fatality rate: 180 deaths/million
Recently added to the model runs. Comprises only
1% of global population but has 11% of the Covid19 deaths. No
resurgence to date...
UK's fatality rate: 556 deaths/million (3rd worst in world)
Passed the 100K count this week. During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on
March 25th, the President stated to the Fox News host:
have packed churches all over the country. It would be a
resurrection of biblical proportions. I would love to have the
country opened up and raring to go by Easter. It would be a
beautiful thing. "Our country has to get back to work, otherwise it's
going to be very hard to start it up again. We can't lose the the
advantage we have."
It was on this precise day America
was inflicted with "the TrumpVirus". On that same day the USA had
only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the
But it marked the day everything changed. And leads one to ask why then does the USA today have 1/3 of known world Covid
& 29% of global body bags? The answer is founded in its citizenry electing
a reality show celebrity as its President. His failure to mitigate Covid-19's spread runs the length of his stay in office.
Albeit Obama's Homeland Security
Chief (Lisa Monaco) briefed the incoming transition team with a robust
"playbook", un-indicted Individual-1 shut down the White House's
National Security Council's Pandemic Unit in 2018. Dr Dennis
Carol's Predict Program was cancelled by the White House in 2019.
And 'cuz their very public warnings were rocking the stock markets in
Feb/2020, CDC's renowned disease experts Sarah Messonnier & Dr
Bright were abruptly reassigned.
This prudent planning team was replaced by a muse "this flu will just go
away with warm April sunshine". After his "miracle"
failed, the self-proclaimed "extremely stable genius" promoted to his cult following: hydroxychloroquine & disinfectant injections and internal UV light
And it appears many continue to drink the
Kool-Aid. Prior to flattening their curves, mostly "red States" have
been relaxing physical distancing, stay-at-home policies & masking. Trump's "Opening Up
campaign is rooted in politics.
To date he has failed to attain Obama's multiple 5% GDP growth rates. Q1 & Q2 were his last-kick-at-the-can - hence his nonsensical dampened pandemic rhetoric thru January, February & March. With Q1 going negative, he knew his Nov/2020 Election demise would depend in large part on Apr/May/June GDP.
The motive for his March 25th plea for Easter church goers to return to work April 14th is clear. As a ratings savvy guy, he knows Q2 GDP will be
announced on the first Friday in August, then amended the first Fridays in Sept & Oct. He is risking a second TrumpVirus (case/deaths) surge this Spring only to salvage his legacy. He desperately wants to avoid voters going to the polls weighing The Donald alone was at fault for a probable record 26% Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash ever ... over 20%.
This despicable reasoning is why America has 100,000 body bags...
USA's fatality rate: 300 deaths/million (9th worst in world)
global target had been generally stable 'til recently. Asia & Europe are carefully normalizing this month
with warnings of renewed restrictions should a material second wave
Worldwide fatality rate: 46 deaths/million
The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION
These 4 Covid19 projections are produced
by our linearization model. It analyzes subtle changes in the
the post-peak downslope of the daily-deaths curve for each
The graph's data
points move left to right chronologically above its date's cumulative
death toll on the x-axis. The intersection of their
trendline at the x-axis indicates the probable ultimate total deaths by
Summer solstice. As daily data points are added, a
high data pt (incr fatality rate) will shift the bottom of the
trendline to the right
and a higher fatalities count ... and vice versa.
There is no medical component aside from tracking the daily &
cumulative fatalities. This is strictly a mathematical model based on nuanced changes in
the post-peak fatality rate. On request, I can similarly chart any nation,
State or Province - presented alone or with comparatives. This same linearization methodology has been
one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has successfully predicted global oil production depletion since 2004.
About TRENDLines Research
Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models
& methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for
policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors and the public with a
long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989. TRENDLines
removes the noise in economic data to reveal the underlying
include: Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;
Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;
Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts;
& national, provincial Party & Presidential political election