COVID19 PANDEMIC MITIGATION THRUST USA ECONOMY into TECHNICAL RECESSION in MARCH 2020
Aug 10th 2020 update - The TRENDLines
Recession Indicator was the
first macro-economic model to accurately reveal the magnitude of the Great Recession in real
time. In the 2013 chart below, TRI was forecasting a USA austerity
crisis to occur in
2024 due to an uncontrolled $26 trillion National Debt. But that
day has been pre-empted by a black swan event: the TrumpVirus - a
crisis of epic proportions in mismanagement, lack of containment &
mitigation failures - resulting in 166K fatalities (thus far).
Despite interventions by the Federal Reserve via its monetary policy tool
box and fiscal policy injections of trillions of dollars by Congress, it
is probable the American economy will suffer long-term
consequences. April's "real" Unemployment Rate (U-6) of 22%
was the worst since the 26% high (1933) in the Great Depression (see
chart below). Q3 GDP plunged 33% (annualized rate), dwarfing the 2008 & 1980
downturns and anything seen in the great Depression.
Weekly initial unemployment claims reveal the economy shed 56 million jobs
over the past 18 weeks (and counting) albeit some sectors are hiring
Trump's "Opening Up America Again" campaign. 31 million workers remain on the rolls today. The TrumpVirus
assures business failures will continue to year end. Nominal GDP
re-attain its pre Great Recession level 'til mid 2011.
In the absence of a vaccine, it is likely this Recovery will last 'til
2023. And it may take a generation for the Unemployment Rate to
recover to its Natural Rate.
If due to the TrumpVirus resurgence and/or an Autumn second wave, GDP declines for at least 4 quarters, this event will have
escalated to a defined Severe Recession - if avg GDP over the period
exceeds -2%. GDP must exceed -4% for at least 8 quarters for this
to be a defined Depression and -8% for four years to be called a Greater Depression.
the traditional definitions
TECHNICAL RECESSION: Avg Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP) declines 0% to 2% for at least 2 Quarters
SEVERE RECESSION: Avg GDP declines 2% to 4% for at least 4 Qtrs (1 yr) DEPRESSION: Avg GDP declines 4% to 8% for at least 8 Qtrs (2 yrs) GREATER DEPRESSION: Avg GDP declines over 8% for at least 16 Qtrs (4 yrs)
RECOVERY PERIOD: monthly/quarterly nominal GDP expanding but remains below pre-contraction peak EXPANSION PERIOD: monthly/quarterly nominal GDP finally exceeds pre-contraction peak
STRUCTURAL GDP (TRIX): Adjustment to GDP reflecting fiscal policy Deficit/Surplus to reveal growth rate of underlying economy
UPPER CLASS: family wealth (net worth) is among the top 1% of society MIDDLE CLASS: family income is among the top 10% of society WORKING CLASS: all the rest...
U-6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither
working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are
available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent
past. Discouraged workers a subset of marginally attached,
have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a
job. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who
want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a
note from the author to returning TRENDLiners & new visitors...
May 2 2020: In the good ol'e days I posted new charts every
day. I had to take a break but recent global events have drawn me
back. These Covid19 graphs are my
first public postings since 2013. The website has been dormant -
hence the tired & dated
look - some would say ugly! I promise to improve it over the
(months?). Due to the time sensitivity of the pandemic issue, the
Covid19 charts will be posted directly to this homepage instead of the normal 90-day exclusive preview at the MemberVenue.
update loyal TRENDLiners, my 7-yr posting hiatus stems from a decision
by Evalina and me to care for my mom with Alzheimers. Now 88, she
is otherwise in great physical health and very kind-hearted. She left Woodstock
Ontario in 2013 to live with us in The Yukon.
may recall when I started this website we resided in an ocean-front
cabin on the Whistler Sea-to-Sky corridor, prior to our 10-yr engagement
North of 60. We loved the Northern Lights and wildlife and were
not intimidated by the -47C temps.
we truly missed our Mediterranean garden and weren't crazy about the
mosquitoes & no-see-ums. So when my mom (ex Cocoa Beach snowbird) suggested we all
move down to balmy Vancouver Island, there was little hesitation - and
in late 2014 packed up a 26' U-Haul for the 2,500-km trek down the Alaska-Canada Hwy back to BC.
Growing up, my dad was my best friend: skiing, seeding the luv of cars & road
trips, sailboat racing, fishing, politics, nurturing gardening & landscaping ... and lotsa
intellectual stimulation. He died early of prostate cancer in '96.
That said, it was my mom who most of my life subsidized (& was
patient with) my hobbies and vices ... especially during the inevitable
struggle years most entrepreneurs endure. So for me it was a case of payback time.
there was a list it would include (but not limited to) gifting me her
'67 Mustang after University; assistance acquiring my 4 Firebirds;
befriending 3 daughter-in-laws;
countless CARE Pkg's; & helping me restore my Morgan NA-40 offshore
racing yacht - etc etc.
I'm looking forward to the Georgia Strait regatta circuit & perhaps circumnavigating the Island some day. But I
sincerely never dreamed family home-care would be so demanding and last
this long. Mom still lives with us and some day she will enter a
nursing home ... but not a wise time right now!
It was when that day
arrives I had intended to come back to TRENDLines. As you can see, the pandemic has accelerated my return. Partly with concern for my mom's vulnerability, I had been watching the BC, Canadian &
int'l Covid19 stats. Like everyone, I was of course anticipating the infamous
"flattening of the curve" - but I was extremely frustrated most
jurisdictions were withholding their models' total projected deaths
counts in this politically correct environment.
each daily-deaths peak went by (April 12th in BC), I noticed the
down-slope of the curves were quite similar to my peak oil graphs. A
late nites later I was able to use my linearization formulae to project
BC's MIA total fatalities count. And shortly thereafter I had
numbers for Canada, USA & globally. I hope you find 'em
enlightening and give y'all some perspective in this first wave.
cheers from Deep Bay Marina, Vancouver Island
Aug 10 2020 (90-day delay waived!) FreeVenue public release of Aug 10 2020
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keywords: projection prediction forecast indicate guess estimate how many people will
die perish in bc british columbia canada canadians usa
americans united states globe world worldwide earth result from corona virus covid-19
pandemic flu death toll daily total cumulative fatalities perish
victims trendlines freddy hutter CDC IHME model pplm post-peak
linearization social physical distancing
PANDEMIC's WAVE#1 is only 1/3rd DONE! FUTURE FATALITIES FORECAST: 1,710,000 WORLDWIDE
incl: USA 211,000; UK 2,000 & CANADA 50 victims
Aug 10th 2020 - Based on the mortality trends of recent weeks, today's update of TRENDLines Research's fatalities
model indicates ultimate total deaths across the globe will be 2.45 million (present toll 740,000 + 1,710,000 future); 377,000 in the
USA (166K toll + 211K future); 48,800 in the UK (46,800 toll + 2,000 future); 9,075
in Canada (9,025 toll + 50 future); 2,852 in Ontario (2,832 toll + 20 future) & 207 victims in BC (195 toll + 12 future) due to the Covid-19 novel coronavirus.
lows for daily-deaths were set in August in the UK, Canada &
Ontario. Wave#1 was virtually arrested on June 20th in BC - no fatalities for 13 days. But relaxation
of lock-downs, physical distancing, masking, testing & contact
vaulted American daily-deaths to 1,200 (triple its rate just five weeks ago) &
worldwide daily-deaths to 6,100 (over double the
global post-peak wave-1 low
set in late May).
Model projections reflect
extrapolation of each jurisdiction's fatality rate this season and do not
assume future changes in gov't guidelines, orders or citizenry behaviour.
The chart & underlying stats
of TRENDLines Research's post-peak linearization model (PPLM) are
updated twice weekly at www.trendlines.ca
WORLDWIDE Based on recent trends, TR's PPL model forecasts yet another 1.71 million Covid19 deaths across the globe by year end. Added
to the present toll of 740K, the total 2020 count could reach 2,450,000. This
projection is over double that issued (see table) just four weeks
back! Today's figures suggest the pandemic's first wave is only 30% complete.
believe the pandemic numbers to be quite
national Covid fatality counts should mirror a country's published
excess deaths". But in far too many nations, their Covid counts
are materially lower, suggesting upward revisions are pending ... unless there's been a flurry of unreported shark attacks!
The 10 nations with the highest daily-deaths' today: USA, Brazil, India,
Mexico, Columbia, South Africa, Peru, Iran, Argentina & Russia.
It remains an outrage that in this eighth month of the pandemic far too many health workers & first responders around
the world still lack sufficient
personal protective equipment (PPE) and timely accurate testing.
Worldwide fatality rate: 96 deaths/million population
USA Similarly, the model projects another 211K deaths in America. Added
to the present toll of 166K, the 2020 fatality count may reach
377K. Today's figures suggest the USA's first wave is only 44% complete.
How did the USA embark on this health crisis? Here's a clue: During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on
March 25th, the President stated to the Fox News host:
have packed churches all over the country. It would be a
resurrection of biblical proportions. I would love to have the
country opened up and raring to go by Easter. It would be a
beautiful thing. "Our country has to get back to work, otherwise it's
going to be very hard to start it up again. We can't lose the the
advantage we have."
It was on this precise day America
was infected with "the TrumpVirus". On that day the USA had
only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the
But it marked the day everything
changed. And leads one to ask why then does the USA today have 25%
of known world Covid
& 22% of global body bags? The answer is founded in its
a reality show celebrity as its President. His failure to
mitigate Covid-19's spread runs the length of his stay in office.
Albeit Obama's Homeland Security
Chief (Lisa Monaco) briefed the incoming transition team with a robust
"playbook", un-indicted Individual-1 shut down the White House's
National Security Council's Pandemic Unit in 2018. Dr Dennis
Carol's Predict Program was cancelled by the White House in 2019.
And 'cuz their very public warnings were rocking the stock markets in
Feb/2020, CDC's renowned disease experts Sarah Messonnier & Dr
Bright were abruptly reassigned.
This prudent planning team was replaced by a muse "this flu will just go
away with warm April sunshine". After his "miracle"
failed, the self-proclaimed "extremely stable genius" offered his cult following hydroxychloroquine, disinfectant injections and internal UV light
And it appears many continue to
Kool-Aid (or bleach?). Prior to flattening their curves, mostly
"red States" have
been relaxing physical distancing, stay-at-home policies &
masking. The six States with the most daily deaths today are Texas, Florida, California, Arizona, Georgia & Louisiana.
From its onset it was evident Trump's "Opening Up
campaign was rooted in politics. Despite
his bravado, to that point in time he failed to attain Obama's multiple
5% GDP growth rates. 2020's Q1/Q2/Q3 were his last-kick-at-the-can
- hence his nonsensical dampened pandemic rhetoric thru January,
February & March. With Q1 going negative (-5%), he knew a large part
of his Nov/2020 Election demise rested on Q2 & Q3 GDP.
motive for his March 25th plea (above) for Easter church goers to
return to work April 14th is clear. As a ratings savvy guy, he
knew Q2 GDP (for Apr/May/June) would be
announced today (with Aug27th & Sept30th revisions). The Q3
GDP announcement will be Oct29th - a mere five days prior to Election Day (Nov3rd).
evidently, he's in huge trouble for failing to contain Covid-19.
The uncontained TrumpVirus spawned a historic -33% Q2 GDP. And of the
54 million workers initiating unemployment claims, 30
million workers remain on the rolls. With no sign of his boasted V-shaped
Recovery, Individual-1 is
poised to initiate desperate manoeuvres ... like forcing schools to
re-open in September ... and attempting to postpone the Election ... and maybe funding a fake vaccine.
In short, he risked a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy. He
desperately wants to avoid voters going to the polls with the
realization that The Donald (alone)
was at fault for April's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging
the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-33% GDP) including the Great Depression.
my Aug 5th post: I'm
not into conspiracy theories but I fear he is about to engage in one
last desperate ploy. Albeit Intelligence reports warned last week
Russia hacked research labs developing Covid-19 vaccines,
Russia surprised all by announcing (Aug 3rd) distribution of its own
vaccine will commence in October.
later, Trump announced his January vaccine target is being advanced to
this Autumn. I fear during the run-up to Election Day, Trump will
unfold his October surprise: an executive order authorizing his
multi-billion dollar purchase of Russia's excess vaccine doses for
immediate distribution - "a beautiful deal".
make no mistake - this product will not receive FDA/WHO approval.
And failing to attain same, it will never see the light of day.
But by this scenario, Trump will set two accomplishments: a last
second boost in the polls ... and receipt of a hidden slush fund.
There never being intent to complete this transaction, Individual-1
& Putin will share the non-refundable vaccine deposit monies.
45% of victims resided in long-term care facilities.
USA's fatality rate: 496 deaths/million (8th worst in world)
UK The model predicts 2,000 additional deaths in the UK. Added
to the present toll of 46,800, the 2020 total fatality tally should be
48,800. But, considering the UK's 20,000 unaccounted "excess deaths" this year, the
real ultimate figure is likely 67K. Should evidence arise the gov't is interfering in the real count, this could be a
The UK comprises only
1% of global population but has 7% of the Covid19 deaths. 37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.
UK's fatality rate: 702 deaths/million (2nd worst in world - behind Belgium)
CANADA The model estimates 50 more deaths in Canada. Added to the present toll of 9,025, the total 2020 fatalities may reach 9,075.
media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect
and under-staffing, so there's no
surprise that this sector saw the most confirmed cases. 82% of fatalities-to-date are long-term care and
seniors home residents/staff. Not a single American State exceeds
Canada's fatality rate: 244 deaths/million
The model projects only 20 more deaths in Ontario. Added to the present toll of 2,832, the 2020 fatality count should end at 2,852.
Finding 62% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario's credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an
Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care
Ontario's fatality rate: 193 deaths/million
BC The Province has not reported a fatality for 13 days. And with a mere 11
hospitalizations presently, the model projects only 12 more Covid19
deaths this Summer. Added to the present toll of 195, the
total fatality count
should be 207.
BC successfully arrested wave#1
back on June 20th. New cases had dwindled
to single digits and nine successive fatality-free days were posted.
Unfortunately, non-compliant social behaviour in recent weeks spawned
eleven hundred new cases and 27 more victims. BC's contact rate
regressed to 85% (from 50%).
With only a handful of weeks 'til
kids go back to school, Henry & Dix must aggressively address the
new infection sources with more than "tweaks". And with last week's revelations by Dr Henry, time-is-of-the-essence. Antigen testing indicates the real number of BC
cases could be approaching 20K ... and 4,300 non-compliant plane
debarkers are potentially avoiding self-quarantine.
The threshold is nearing
where education must be augmented with enforcement. Failure
will see a return to daily announcements proclaiming scores of new
cases and multiple deaths. Our Spring sacrifices will have been in
vain. If prudence prevails, it can be declared wave#1 is virtually complete.
British Columbia &
Washington State were the
first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off.
Wise leadership quickly contained the spread and both
jurisdictions are on paths to normality. Credit to BC in being among the first to bar
family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending
multiple long-term residences.
Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 74% of total
fatalities. BC boasts
an incidence rate of only 75 cases per 100k population (17/100k on
BC fatality rate: 40 deaths/million
The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION
These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR's linearization
model. It analyzes the subtle changes in a jurisdiction's
daily-death rate after the curve's peak - particularly the most recent
days & weeks. The graph's data
points move left to right chronologically above its date's cumulative
death toll on the x-axis. The intersection of their
trendline at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total
deaths. As daily data points are added, a
high y-axis data pt (high fatality rate) will shift the bottom of the
trendline to the right
and a higher fatalities count ... and vice versa.
There is no medical component aside from tracking daily &
cumulative fatalities. This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in
a curve's down-slope. This same methodology has been
one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has produced global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004. On request, I can similarly chart any Nation,
State, Province or Region - presented alone or with comparatives.
About TRENDLines Research
Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models
& methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for
policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors and the public with a
long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989. TRENDLines
removes the noise in economic data to reveal the underlying
include: Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;
Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;
Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts;
& national, provincial Party & Presidential political election
chart-of-the-day is a public posting of guidance (charts, tables
& analysis) @ our MemberVenue ... but with a 90-day delay.
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Research has been publishing charts & analysis relating to Peak
Oil, Macro-Economics, Climate Change & Political Election
Projections since 1989. Data analyst Freddy Hutter's media
and professional commentary on these issues commenced in 1973
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