what's new, eh? ... .Peak Oil Depletion  TrendLines Barrel Meter ~ $90/barrel Oil ($3.34/gal pump) in 2011Q1 Could Decimate USA New Car Sales (again) August Update of our Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios Presentation:  19-Model Tier-1 Avg infers Peak Oil Target is 93-mbd in 2023 August Update of Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario 2200 Model:  Waning Demand is Truncating Peak Oil  (Peak - 95mbd in 2039 ... instead of 102mbd in 2030) Tracking of Projections for Regular Conventional Oil ... Colin Campbell drawn from Retirement for 2010 update Quarterly Production for the Top 7 Nations World Production Records ~ 2010 setting new Annual Record ~ new Quarterly Record set in Q1 ~ Monthly Record poised for January the Gas Pump ~ USA Gasoline Price Components & Crack Spread ~ New Car Sales poised to Collapse in Q1 upon $3.42/gallon ($92/barrel)

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what's new, eh? ... .Climate change , Economics & Politics econ Canadian Recession Meter Detects Multiple Errors in StatCan's GDP release econ ~ Monthly update of TrendLines Realty Bubble Monitor:   Australia $84,000, UK £84,000, Canada $79,000 & USA $-3,000 econ USA Recession Meter infers 1.7% GDP in August & Double-Dip in 2011Q3 econ USA Debt Meter ~ Structural Deficits to inspire Bond Vigilante Crisis in 2024 poli Seat Projection for August 2010 Australian  Election poli    MP Riding Projection for the 2012 Canadian Federal Election econ USA REAL Unemployment Rate stubborn at 16.5% in July, down from 17.4% high in October econ Global Scene:  Q2 GDP is 3.5% ~ Trade up 18% from 2009 low ~ no G20 nations in Recession

Scroll down for this month'sTrendLines charts ~ click graph for more background or topic venue
click chart for more discussion & graphs...	Highlights Sept/2011 - 1-yr Target for USA Contract Crude Price:  $118/Barrel Sept/2015 - 5-Year Target:  $61/barrel Sept/2020 - 10-Year Target:  $83/barrel 2035 Target (25-Yr):  $337/barrel USA New Car Sales collapse:  2011Q1 @ $90/barrel crude ($3.34/gal gasoline) Return of G-20 Recessions:  2011Q3 @ $108/barrel Sept 1st ~ The USA Contract Crude Price averaged $74 in August, up $2 over thirty days, and exactly double the $37/barrel correction trough at December 2008. The rise was attributable to minor USDollar debasement & speculation/hedging activity. The cost of imported oil ranged from $64/barrel for Canadian Heavy to $76 for Indonesia Light. Including spikes, crude oil should settle into a general trading range of $74 to $92/barrel thru the balance of Q3/Q4. The present spiking activity is completely detached from fundamentals. As seen in the chart, Prices since November have been as high as 1.8 x's fundamentals, rather than the 1.4 "fair value" norm (dashed yellow line).  The obscene record profits for IOCs we predicted for Q1 have been confirmed, and announced quarterly earnings reveal this disturbing trend continued in Q2. The fundamentals-based Crude Price (yellow line) was $43/barrel in August.  The monthly avg for the USA import-weighted contract price exceeded fundamentals by 66% .... an unduly inflated price considering this premium averaged 43% over the last five years.  The recent high for this metric was 137% in y2K, yet it was only 39% during the July 2008 price spike.  The low point for the factor was 6% (over fundamentals) at the Dec/2008 correction trough.  The current level of bullishness reflected by this metric (1.43) has not been seen since late 2004.
click chart for 60-yr graph, expanded discussion & more Canadian, USA & Int'l macro economics...	Breaking News:  Recession Meter Detects Multiple Errors in StatCan's GDP release Aug 31st ~ (copyright) ~ TrendLines Research is confident it has discovered major errors in today's release of quarterly GDP data by StatCan.  In its regular revision of economic activity for the past eighteen months, StatCan is reporting a 2.0% growth rate in Q2, 5.8% for Q1 & a -7% trough during the recent Severe Recession.  But, source material reveals the announced figures should have been 2.6%, 6.2% & -7.9% respectively. "We're not saying StatCan had trouble estimating economic activity, but rather their staff made multiple mistakes converting their own data to the headline quarterly and annualized percentage rates disseminated to and by the media.  9 of the 12 mileposts were in error ... some by over half a percent" stated analyst Freddy Hutter.  Highlights of StatCan errors within Aug 31 2010 release:   TrendLines corrections StatCan Recession trough 2009-Feb -7.9% - 2009Q1 -7.2% -7.0% 2009Q2 -3.4% -2.8% 2009Q3 0.8% 0.9% 2009Q4 5.0% 4.9% 2010Q1 6.2% 5.8% 2010Q2 2.6% 2.0%
click chart for the USA New Homes graph, further Bubble discussion ... and more macro economic graphs	Aug 31st 2010 monthly update ~ Realty Bubble Monitor    Overpricing of Avg Home in July 2010: $   Bubble Today Bubble @ Peak $84,000 Australia 25% $143k & 50% (2007) £84,000 UK 103% £ 104 & 134% (2007) $79,000 Canada 30% $79k & 30% (2010) $ -3,000 USA -1% $69k & 32% (2005) Aug 31st ~ TrendLines Research first drew attention to the topic of Housing Bubbles in Canada in 1989.  Although that particular Bubble was only $53k, it was actually a more severe event as the average price at the time was an unprecedented 55% above the Home Price / Family Income ratio trend ... almost double the current episode of 30%.  Families were paying an astonishing 4.2 x's their Income.  It took ten long years for housing to find new highs. Then in May 2008, we published guidance that the correction of the USA Housing Bubble would neither be as drastic as forecasts painted by self-appointed pundits, nor would it be the non-event as rationalized by voices in the media openly declaring the USA housing market was not in a bubble,  Our scenarios predicted the collapse would only be as severe as needed to return the USA's median Existing & New Home Prices to their Price/2-earner Family Income ratio trend lines. Shortly thereafter (2008/11/18), McDoomer Nouriel Roubini was predicting a 40% collapse in housing prices and that 1,400 banks would "go bust in 2009".  Well, he was out by 1,260 on the latter call, and to date, existing home prices have declined only 28%.  A growingly tabloid-style mainstream media seems obsessed with extreme positions.
	Tier-1 Scenarios:  Aug 29th ~ This month's revision:  (a) updates a Tier-1 Outlook by our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200;  (b) updates a Tier-2 Outlook by Michael Smith;  & (c) updates the Colin Campbell Depletion Model in the Invalidated Outlooks presentation. Based on 19-model Avg:           Peak Oil:  93-mbd in 2023           Post-peak production Avg Decline Rate to 2050:  0.7%/yr  ('til 2050)           The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted:  2032           The year flow breaches below today's 86-mbd:  2040           The year we virtually run out of oil (excl BTL):  2300  (less than 5mbd)           Global URR/EUR:  3,903-Gb  (1,225-Gb consumed to 2009/12/31 excl 4Gb BTL)           Global Depletion:  32% of URR  (Net Depletion Rate:  1.1%/yr)   click a chart for more graphs & discussion...
	Tier-2 Scenarios:  Aug 29 2010 ~ Michael Smith has updated his 2007 effort by postponing his 101-mbd Peak to 2017 (from 2013).  The Smith scenario was downgraded to Tier-2 from its Tier-1 status in January 2009 as part of our purging of several overly-optimistic projections.  Unfortunately, Michael's recent update fails the same test standard (as revised).  As seen in our Methodology Revisions (right column), our criteria requires all Tier-1 projections to show less than 96.2-mbd flow rates in 2014.  To attain its 101 Peak infers 97.8-mbd extraction in 2014 and an unfortunate subsequent disqualification. Members of the Tier-2 & Hail Mary presentation exhibit one or more deemed flaws: Stale Dated:  EIA-Caruso 2005, Lynch 1996 Poor reconciliation with URR - Low projected Peak and/or overly aggressive post-peak decline rate results in a future "dogleg"  to exhaust remaining resource:  Koppelaar 2009 (2030) & Robelius 2007 (2050) Overly optimistic medium term targets - 2014 is only four years away.  Megaproject analysis suggests flow rate will be 88-mbd.  Considering practitioner differences wrt Surplus Capacity & Underlying Decline Observed, potential flow could be 96.1-mbd albeit highly improbable.  Outlooks with deemed unachievable targets:  Brandt-Farrell 2008 (105.2mbd by 2014), IHS 2007 (104), EIA-Wood Y2k (103), Smith 2009 (101), Lynch 1996 (100), Wood Mackenzie 2007 (99.5), Robelius (98.5) & Leonard-Kuwait Energy 2007 (97.5). Hail Mary Scenarios - Practitioner has a more conservative outlook that has been featured in Tier-1:  EIA-Caruso 2005, EU WETO/POLES 2007 (reference) & Royal Dutch Shell 2008 (blueprint) Mathematical Models - Lack robustness to depict inferior non-conventional flows:  Carlson 2007 Inadequate robustness or Conjecture-based:  Hirsch 2009, Lynch 1996, Odell 2009, ITPOES 2010 & BP 2010
	Invalidated Outlooks Archive:  Aug 29 2010 ~ We were very fortunate to coax Colin Campbell out of retirement last month to update his Depletion Model, but unfortunately did not secure a result sufficient to upgrade his scenario from the Invalidated Outlooks presentation back to Tier-1 status.  Colin consulted with us again this month to appeal this status on the basis his more recent figures show 2010 production is less than 2009.  We did not find merit in the argument. As a reminder, the Outlooks by Campbell, Kjell Aleklett & Jeff Rubin were all downgraded this March upon EIA's revelation that 2010 annual production is poised to surpass the 2008 record.  That was a dagger thru the heart for these three forecasters who last year had all bet the house on a 2008 Peak. Invalidated Outlooks in general forecast low Peak Rates and/or harsh post-peak Decline Rates.  Typically they are constructed on URR/EUR platforms less than the geology-based Worst Case Scenario. Current Production exceeds Outlook Peak Rate:  Hubbert 1956 (34mbd), Matt Simmons (84.4), Bakhtiari (81), EWG-LBST (81), Aleklett (85) , Rubin (85) & Campbell (66 & 85) Outlook's Peak Date surpassed:  Hubbert-'56 (Y2k), Hubbert-'74 (1995), (Duncan-Youngquist (2007), Matt Simmons (2007), Bakhtiari (2006), EWG-LBST (2006), Aleklett (2008) & Rubin (2008) & Campbell (1989 & 2008)   click a chart for more graphs & discussion...
	Aug 27th ~ Economic data released by BEA today reveals the USA enjoyed a downward revised 1.6% Real GDP growth rate in Q2, down from 3.7% in Q1 & 5.0% in 2009Q4.  The 2010Q2 figure is below the 3.1% figure for the TrendLines Recession Meter.  Early data suggests July GDP was 2.3% and the Index  projects 2.7% & 1.4% for Q3 & Q4 respectively. Last December, the TrendLines Recession Meter was the first mainstream analysis to provide alerts that the Recovery under way was facing potential median term deterioration.  By February 23rd 2010, the Index signaled the first alert of a potential double-dip.  In a gross misstep, attempting to deflect attention from itself, Wall Street began to spotlight a host of countries with flaky sovereign fundamentals:  Argentina, Iceland, Dubai-UAE, Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Hungary & Italy.  Unfortunately, upon running out of nations, the same scrutiny by media and bond vigilantes on Deficit & Nat'l Debt to GDP ratios began on the USA itself.  We have welcomed this development as it builds on an awareness campaign we have been engaged in for over a decade.  See our Debt Meter. As more stakeholders became educated, our Index sensed an acceleration of USDollar debasement, moving the prospect of a double-dip into the short term window.  In recent weeks, however, Congress & the White House seem to have gauged international sentiment as a  message telling them to kill the Bush tax cuts (due to expire at year-end) rather than extending them as an indirect stimulus measure but in so doing exacerbating the Deficit/Debt Wall concerns.  This positive prospect has resulted in a shifting of the double-dip event back to the 2011Q3 time frame.  Should the USDollar devaluation come to fruition, it is projected GDP will trough at -2% in 2012Q2.  Should long-term trends prevail, the current business cycle should resume 4% cresting norms in 2013Q2 and wind down in 2017Q3. click chart for 40-yr graph, expanded discussion & more macro economic charts...
	Aug 25 2010 Update:  Waning Demand Growth is Truncating Peak Oil Peak:  95-mbd in 2039 ... instead of 102-mbd in 2030           Post-Peak Production Decline Rates:  0.7% 'til 2065, then 1.9% 2065 to 2090           Worldwide 2010 Surplus Capacity:  6.5-mbd  (exhausts in 2040)           The year flow breaches below 2010 levels:  2054           URR/EUR:  7,513-Gb  (consumed to 2009/12/31:  1229-Gb incl 4Gb BTL)           Depletion of URR:  16%      Annual Gross Depletion Rate:  0.4%  (Net:  0.5%)           The year 50% of URR consumed:  2098           The year oil (excl BTL) runs out:  2388        Underlying Decline Rate Observed YTD 2010:  2.9% (2.4-mbd) of Worldwide All Liquids click chart for more PS-220 charts ...
click chart for discussion & more macro economic charts...	Aug 22nd ~ After a decade of monitoring the issue, TrendLines Research began publishing alerts in early 2009 warning that the USA Federal Government is headed for an inevitable Investor Crisis with respect to its treasury auctions.  With concern over the integrity of sovereign debt, bond vigilantes are increasingly monitoring Deficit/GDP & National Debt/GDP ratios.  It appears the current Wall Street spotlight on European nations will be donned on American Treasury activities within nine short years.  The time line will be accelerated should Congress extend the Bush tax cuts set to expire at year end, and today's chart projections assume no intervention. As a result, the Federal Gov't is on a path that would double today's $13-trillion National Debt by 2025, and triple it by 2028.  Already a staggering 91% of GDP, the ratio would rise to 96% & 104% respectively.  Most buyers of US Treasuries are unaware of these precise numbers, but they have had a sense for a while that America's fiscal well being is suffering from substantial mismanagement.  Albeit the time line is open to subjective interpretation, foreign Investors are cognizant continued failure to address this behemoth will lead to:  (a) demands for increased interest rates on Treasury notes;  (b) select offerings in alternative currencies;  (c) rating downgrades;  (d) still higher yields ... perhaps 4% greater than today; & (e) the temporary shunning of Treasury Auctions by tier-1 buyers in an effort to stage an intervention. Left unimpeded, the rise in Debt interest, unfunded Social Security liabilities,  Entitlements for Medicare/Medicaid and Universal Health Care would drive the National Debt to $62 trillion over the next 30 years.  On the very short term, there is definite relief.  Albeit the 2010 $1.3 trillion Budget Deficit represents a scary 9% of GDP, our analysis of CBO costing of the current Obama ten-year Budget indicates the ratio will decline to "only" 3% ($530 billion) by 2014 as programs dealing with the liquidity crisis (TARP etc) and the Recession (fiscal stimulus) expire.  This virtually guarantees the stability of Treasury sales to both domestic & international investors over the next 48 months. If action is not forthcoming, current CBO data indicates that left unchecked, the annual Deficit rockets to $3.3 trillion by 2040.  Weighing the USA's situation, TrendLines Research judges such an Investor Crisis will occur in 2019 ... with the National Debt @ 91% of GDP.  That's only nine years away.  Even if the USA dodges that bullet by some fortune, a similar fate, via the Deficit Crisis, is also on the distant horizon ... when the annual Deficit again approaches 5% of GDP ... in 2024.
click chart for more...	Aug 21st 2010 4pm PST:  With just three seats left in close counts, the tentative results are 72 Labor, 73 Nat/Lib Coalition, 4 Indept's & 1 Green.  The Coalition received the highest popular vote and the Indies have a certain right wing leaning.  Tony Abbott is competing with Julia Gillard in recruiting the Gang-of-5 before approaching the Gov-Gen with a proposal to form the new Government. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Aug 21st 2010:  Today's "final" final projection combines our forecast (78-L 69-C 3-others) with 3 other active models by Bowe (79), Jackman (75) & Steel (74).  The blended projection sees 77-L, 70-C & 3-others.  Today is election day. Aug 17th 2010:  Daily polls during the campaign have been a tad more volatile than the monthly tracking implies, but still Gillard maintains her overall momentum with an 81-66 lead. July 25th 2010:  It's the first week of the snap writ and the first seat projection is in.  Julia Gillard's Labour Party leads Tony Abbott's Liberal-National Coalition by 88-59, with 3 Indies making up the rest.  The election will be Aug 21st.
click chart for more...	"Evan Solomon, you have been trying to help me since October ... PLEASE STOP !" Aug 20 2010:  It's the summer doldrums and attention is on tomorrow's Australian election, so we'll keep this short.  As one views today's chart, we can all hear Mr Ignatieff saying just one thing:  "Evan Solomon, you have been trying to help me since October ... PLEASE STOP !" The Recession was over in March 2009, the contraction in August 2009, but the impressive recovery appears to be on the brink of delivering its first bout of bad economic news for PM Harper.  We're predicting StatCan will at month end announce Q2 GDP of 5.4%, which of course is good, but a sudden breakdown in leading indicators infers next month's announcement of July GDP will be a dismal 1.8% growth rate.  On the horizon, the winding down of fiscal stimulus, a probable double-dip in the USA, an export killing par Loonie & a winding down of Canada's $79,000 Housing Bubble ... could combine to dampen GDP to the 1.1% vicinity by mid 2012.  The monthly average for national home prices has declined $17,000 since the May peak. The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have started a hypothetical Aug 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 133 Ridings, followed by:  97 Liberals, 29 NDP, 48 BQ & 1 Indep't. When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 5 national polls conducted July 5-27 2010 by 8 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early August Election Campaign with a lead in 133 Seats ... up 2 from thirty days prior.  The Liberal Party would start with 86 Members (down 1).  The Bloc & NDP would have started an early Summer campaign with 53 & 36 Ridings respectively.  For the third consecutive month, these are the first results since December 2008, where our long term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits) to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012 ... leading in 112 Ridings upon the dropping of that writ.
click chart for more...	Aug 6th ~ Today's headline USA Unemployment Rate for July may be 9.5% (U-3), but the dire state of the economy is reflected by the REAL Unemployment Rate of 16.5%.  The latter includes discouraged/marginally attached workers and economically necessitated part-timers.  It's unchanged from June, down from 16.6% in May and ties for a third time the lowest rate since the Recession-inspired high of 17.4% set October 2009. The post Great Depression high for this Bureau of Labour metric (U-6) was 19.3% in 1982.  The all time record of 24.9% was set in 1933.  By 1937 it had corrected to 11%, but in a 1939 premature effort to balance the Budget, suffered a relapse to 17.9%. This jobless recovery was foretold by TrendLines Research in Autumn 2008.  And it seemed the economy was over the hump when it was reported the Inventory/Sales ratio was much improved.  As some sectors move to replenish, there is a visible increase in Aggregate Weekly Hours ... then overtime ... and finally re-hiring.  The U-6 Unemployment Rate did not peak 'til 23 months after the trough of the 2001 Recession.  It never did get back to the pre-contraction level of 6.8%.  Assuming this Recession ended July 2009, then U-6 topped out nine months after the trough "this time". But just as it was thought the fiscal stimulus was ushering in a robust Recovery, our December leading indicators began to hint of relapse ... perhaps one to three years off.  By February 2010, the "downturn" was starting to look more like a double-dip.  And by March, it became apparent whatever was on the horizon wasn't a year off any longer.  The TrendLines Recession Meter gives guidance on the economy's history and path forward.
click chart for more...	Regular Conventional Oil Scenarios:  Campbell drawn from Retirement for 2010 update July 29 2010 ~ (rev 2010/8/9) There have been only 4 modellers worldwide who have published long term production profiles for Regular Conventional Oil ... the light sweet crude:  Albert Bartlett (USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA) & TrendLines' own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada). Hubbert's initial RCO thoughtful graphic bell-curve presentation commenced the general discourse on Peak Oil in 1956.  It's Y2k Peak Date was intuitive but the model was flawed by its lowly 1,250-Gb estimate of URR.  His 1974 update boosted the resource base to 2-Tb, a figure that is still relevant by modern standards, but the second projection and its 1995 111-mbd peak were truncated by OPEC interference the following year.  A much later effort was the 1998 Bartlett model with its forecast of a 73-mbd peak in 2004. In actual fact, RCO extraction peaked in 2005 (68-mbd), while the midpoint of its URR/EUR was probably crossed in October 2009.  By the end of 2009, production had deteriorated to 61.8-mbd. Jean Laherrère & Colin Campbell have been the sector's most stalwart peak oil study practitioners.  Both have openly shared their annual analysis with fellow modellers for two decades.  This month we coaxed Campbell to come out of retirement with an update.  Campbell's 2010 Depletion Model has extended RCO's dramatic 2.5%/yr production decline rate past 2030 to 2050.  It increases RCO's URR by 58-Gb to 1,963-Gb ... a career high estimate. Conversely, the Hutter Peak Scenario 2200 (the only other active model) projects a softer 1.5% avg annual decline rate to 2030, with an 88-Gb higher resource this month of 2,145-Gb.  While Campbell forecasts the annual flow rate deteriorates to 35-mbd (down 1) by 2030, Hutter takes the position 47-mbd (down 8) is more probable.  On the longer term, whereas Campbell predicts the annual Decline rate will soften after 2050, Hutter sees major resource constraint culminating in an R/P 9 (10% decline) environment in 2061.  Prior to that, Hutter forecasts a surge to a secondary peak of 52-mbd in 2039 as RCO reserves are especially exploited to replenish waning deep-sea extraction from 2030 to exhaustion in 2049. The basis for the Hutter Peak Scenario 2200 interpretation lies in its analysis that the four-year extraction decline was actually a masking of reality by ever increasing surplus capacity ... mostly by OPEC members.  2010 will be the watershed year in determining which premise is correct.  If Campbell's hypothesis of continued aggressive decline of 2.5% is in play, RCO should be only 60.2-mbd this year.  OTOH, if RCO stays above that threshold, then the Hutter position may be superior.  And by extension, the scenario with the correct interpretation will likely be rewarded with the more accurate All Liquids projection as well.  Thus far in 2010, year-to-date figures indicate there has been a pause in the decline ... 62.3-mbd.
	July 28th ~ In a grudge match that's lasted 25 years, Russia has regained the lead as World's top All Liquids producer.  It is improbable Russia's 1987 annual/quarterly/monthly records of 11.5-mbd will ever be surpassed. Russia is steady @ 10.4-mbd, while Saudi Arabia sits at an OPEC quota restricted 9.6-mbd.  In 3rd place, the USA is stable @ 8.3-mbd, Following are China (4.0), Iran (3.7), Canada (3.2) & Mexico (3.0-mbd). TrendLines Research's All Liquids Underlying Decline Rates Observed in 2010:  Worldwide 2.9%, Saudi Arabia 2.7% & USA 2.5%   click chart for more of our Monthly Report venue charts ...
	July 27th ~ The pace of flow rates to July 13th indicates a new global Annual Supply record of 85.6-mbd is being set in 2010. A new global Quarterly Supply record of 86.0-mbd was set in 2010Q1.  July 2008 continues its distinction for the all time global Monthly Supply record:  86.7-mbd, 0.7-mbd above today's monthly pace of 86.0-mbd.  Projection of year-to-date flows infers the next new monthly record will be set in January 2011. The Quarterly record for Demand of 86.9-mbd was set in 2007Q4 (with difference of 1.7-mbd drawn from inventories).  The High Demand Month was February 2008's 88.0-mbd, but consumption fell to 82.2-mbd by January 2009 amidst the depth of the world Recession. TrendLines Research's global All Liquids Underlying Decline Rates Observed:  2010 - 2.9%;  1970-2009 Avg - 2.7%   click for more charts...
Global GDP:  Year 2010 4.2% (pending)     Year 2009 -0.6%     Year 2008 3.0%     Year 2007 5.2%   G-20 Nations in Technical or Severe Recession & Global GDP: 2010Q3 2010Q2 2010Q1 2009Q4 2009Q3 2009Q2 2009Q1 2008Q4 2008Q3 2008Q2 2008Q1 2007Q4 3.9% p 3.5% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.2% -6.0% -6.0% -0.2% 1.9% 3.9% 5.3% nil nil nil Russia 3% of Global GDP UK Turkey Russia 8% of Global GDP     UK     Russia  Italy Canada SouthAfrica Turkey 27% of Global GDP USA    Japan Germany UK     Russia France Brazil   Italy Canada Turkey Mexico SouthAfrica 53% of Global GDP   USA   Japan   Germany UK     Russia France Brazil   Italy Canada Turkey Mexico SouthAfrica 53% of Global GDP USA Japan Germany UK France   Italy Mexico   43% of Global GDP USA Japan Germany France Italy   38% of Global GDP  USA   21% of Global GDP USA   21% of Global GDP   And Not in Recession in 2010Q2:  USA, China, Japan, India, Germany, UK, Russia, France, Brazil, Italy, Mexico, Canada, South Korea, Turkey, Indonesia, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Argentina & South Africa (in order of GDP & comprising 77% of worldwide GDP;  excludes 20th membership, courtesy to EU) Remaining 160 nations comprise only 23% of worldwide GDP	July 22nd ~ 2010Q2 global GDP is on 3.5% pace, down slightly from 5.1% in Q1, and a major recovery from the -6.0% of 2009Q1.  There are no G-20 nations currently in Technical or Severe Recession.  Only Mexico had negative growth in Q1. The pre-Recession high for global trade occurred in February 2008.  After declining 20% by May 2009, it had rebounded 21% by March 2010, but was still below the 2008 record.  April 2010 world merchandise trade was down 3% from the previous month. The duration of the global Recession was 2008Q3 to 2009Q1.  Despite the mainstream media hysteria, at its worse only 12 G-20 nations (representing 53% of global GDP) were in Recession.  2009's -0.6% GDP decline was the first contraction in the last four decades. This economic episode was in part precipitated by rising energy prices that caused a collapse of USA New Car Sales in 2007Q4 when USA contract crude price broke the $86/barrel ($3.19/gallon gasoline) threshold.  On its present path, gasoline and diesel will breach that same Fuel Cost/GDP ratio in 2011Q1 @ $3.42/gal ($92/barrel).  Another Fuel Cost/GDP ratio is more ominous.  At $109/barrel, a new round of G-20 Recessions shall commence.  Our Barrel Meter suggests this will occur in 2011Q1 failing central banks' mitigation, or fiscal policy stimulation.  The rising crude prices relate mainly to USDollar debasement and failure of successive Congress and Presidential Administrations to address Structural Deficits and mounting National Debt. A long term effect of this downturn will be an acceleration in China's overtaking the USA as the largest Economy.  We determines that this event will  occur in 2051 ... a mere 40 years away.  In turn, India's demographics create the situation whereby it is poised to take the title of largest economy in 2075. click chart for more macro economics ...
USA Gasoline Price/gallon Components:   July 2010 2011Q1 2011Q4 Demand Destruction Barrier $4.21 $4.29 $4.42 New Car Sales Collapse Threshold $3.35 $3.42  $3.52 Retail Pump Price $2.84 $3.42 target $4.42 target Wholesale $2.15     Taxes $ .49     Profit $ .20     Metrics:       Contract Crude $1.71     Gross Margin (Retail less Crude) $1.12     Margin (Retail less Wholesale) $ .68     Crack Spread $ .43	the TrendLines Gas Pump USA New Car Sales Poised to Collapse in Q1 upon $3.42/gallon gasoline  ($92/barrel) July 14th ~ During 2005 & 2006, gasoline touched $3/gallon and fell back.  It didn't in 2007Q4, and that helped push the American economy (already anaemic due to the Housing Bubble's assault on family disposable income) into a Technical Recession.  It is little known that this price event contributed to the collapse of USA New Car Sales (see BEA chart below) and light vehicle/parts imports from Canada. It should be of grave concern that the same Pump-Price/GDP ratio underlying that episode of consumer behaviour is being re-approached.  The failure of Congress/Obama to address America's structural deficits & mounting national debt is troubling to the global investment community (especially bond vigilantes) and is responsible for the USDollar's secular decline that commenced in May 2004.  As shown in the Barrel Meter table above, USD debasement was the largest forcing ($29) among components during the $94/barrel price spike (2005-2008).  As the Dollar falls, crude oil pricing rises. As a Pump-Price/GDP ratio, the New Car Sales Collapse Threshold rises along with GDP over time, and gasoline will attain the same danger zone @ $3.42/gallon ($92/barrel USA contract crude).  Our Barrel Meter projects this Price will be surpassed as early as 2011Q1.  Fortunately, a second Pump-Price/GDP ratio will halt the current price run @ $4.42/gal in 2011Q4.  This Demand Destruction Barrier is the same threshold that reversed the July 2008 price run @ $4.11 per gallon.  It demarks the point where substitution and conservation measures by consumers and commerce attains critical mass.  A decimation of New Car & Light Truck Sales this Winter would be a major factor in the economy's relapse into double-dip, and as such is reflected in our Recession Meter. This month's Retail Price of $2.84/gal is comprised of $2.15 Wholesale refinery product & a $ .68 Margin.  In turn, Margin is made up of $ .49 Taxes & $ .20 Profit.  One would think the retailers are getting very rich, eh.  Well, analysis reveals Margin is only up from $ .54 in January Y2k.  Taxes & Profit are up from 42 & 13 cents at that time.  In other words, nominal Profit today is virtually unchanged. The post-Y2k Crack Spread (diff betw Wholesale & Contract Crude) for Refiners can be seen ranging from $1.06 & $ .18 ($44 & $8/barrel) and is currently $ .43/gallon ($18/barrel).  When this figure drops below $ .48/gallon ($20/barrel), Refiners prefer to produce diesel and import less expensive gasoline.  This current lack of profitably is behind the recent shuttering and sell-off of facilities. click chart for more...
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