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TRENDLines Research  ...  Providing macro-economic charts & guidance for Legislators, Policymakers, Investors & Stakeholders
long-term multi-disciplinary perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989 - TRENDLines removes the noise from economic data to reveal the underlying trends

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covid sept20

next update:  Sept 30th


Archive of PPL Model's Projected 2020 Covid19 Fatalities

BC
Ontario Canada
UK
USA
World
Sept 20
437
2,9479,895
43,840266,000
1,730,000
Sept 10
277
2,9059,440
42,200245,000
1,440,000
Sept 5
274
2,909 9,460
42,120 267,000
1,410,000
Aug 30
216
2,9299,450
42,230284,000
1,380,000
Aug 25
217
2,8689,370
42,010269,000
1,450,000
Aug 20
205
2,8629,302
41,990265,000
1,490,000
Aug 15
204
2,8519,100
48,600418,000
2,100,000
Aug 10
207
2,8529,075
48,800377,000
2,450,000
Aug 5
205
2,8549,070
48,500282,000
1,990,000
July 30
207
2,8459,050
48,200308,000
2,040,000
July 25
199
2,8439,030
48,100239,000
1,630,000
July 20
215
2,8509,060
48,100204,000
1,500,000
July 15
200
2,8258,940
46,200180,000
1,140,000
July 10
189 2,8208,930
46,000175,000
1,170,000
July 5
180 2,8458,910
46,000173,000
1,170,000
June 30
177 2,8908,840
45,600161,000
1,340,000
June 25
172 2,9208,860
44,700141,000
1,190,000
June 21st
Actual Deaths:
171 2,657 8,481
42,731 122,468
472,779
June 20 forecasts
for Year 2020

170
2,8109,000
46,800145,000
1,145,000
June 16
170
2,9409,660
48,900140,000
905,000
June 12
172
3,17010,200
47,400141,000
852,000
June 9
172
3,5309,430
49,200134,000
640,000
June 6
191
2,7709,700
45,500127,000
525,000
June 3
197
2,5508,470
42,500122,000
471,000
June 1
216
2,5408,370
42,000122,000
466,000
May 30
225
2,5307,990
41,600121,000
428,000
May 28
217
2,4807,870
41,100119,000
420,000
May 26
225
2,3907,590
41,600119,000
420,000
May 24
224

7,470

120,000
420,000
May 22
223

7,300

117,000
409,000
May 20
196

7,040

111,000
403,000
May 18
193

7,135

110,000
406,000
May 16
180

7,125

111,000
396,000
May 14
174

7,025

109,000
381,000
May 12
189

6,850

105,000
386,000
May 10
222

6,900

116,000
393,000
May 8
183

6,860

119,000
339,000
May 6
202

6,475

103,000
352,000
May 4
200

6,000

95,000
386,000
May 2
205

5,900

117,000
380,000
Apr 30
238

5,120

80,000
380,000
Apr 28 forecasts
for June 21st
176

3,960

70,500
314,000

COVID19 PANDEMIC MITIGATION THRUST USA ECONOMY into TECHNICAL RECESSION in MARCH 2020

Sept 20th 2020 (update) - The TRENDLines Recession Indicator was the first macro-economic model to accurately reveal the magnitude of the Great Recession in real time.  In the 2013 chart below, TRI was forecasting a USA austerity crisis to occur in 2024 due to an uncontrolled $26 trillion National Debt.  But that day has been pre-empted by a black swan event:  the TrumpVirus - a crisis of epic proportions in mismanagement, lack of containment & mitigation failures - resulting in 203,000 fatalities (thus far).

Despite interventions by the Federal Reserve via its monetary policy tool box and fiscal policy injections of trillions of dollars by Congress, it is probable the  American economy will suffer long-term consequences.  April's "real" Unemployment Rate (U-6) of 22% was the worst since the 26% high (1933) in the Great Depression (see chart below).  Q2 GDP plunged 32% (annualized rate), dwarfing the 2008 & 1980 downturns and anything seen in the great Depression.

Weekly initial unemployment claims reports reveal the economy shed 62 million jobs over the past 23 weeks albeit some sectors are hiring back via Trump's "Opening Up America Again" campaign.  29 million workers still remain on the rolls today.  The TrumpVirus assures business failures will continue to year end (80,000 to date!).  Nominal GDP did not re-attain its pre Great Recession level 'til mid 2011.  In the absence of a vaccine, it is likely this Recovery will last 'til 2023.  And it may take a generation for the Unemployment Rate to recover to its Natural Rate.

If due to the TrumpVirus resurgence and/or an Autumn second wave, GDP declines for at least 4 quarters, this event will have escalated to a defined Severe Recession - if avg GDP over the period exceeds -2%.  GDP must exceed -4% for at least 8 quarters for this to be a defined Depression and -8% for four years to be called a Greater Depression.
 
TRI USA long

the traditional definitions

TECHNICAL RECESSION:  Avg Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP) declines 0% to 2% for at least 2 Quarters
SEVERE RECESSION:  Avg GDP declines 2% to 4% for at least 4 Qtrs (1 yr)
DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines 4% to 8% for at least 8 Qtrs (2 yrs)
GREATER DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines over 8% for at least 16 Qtrs (4 yrs)

RECOVERY PERIOD:  monthly/quarterly nominal GDP expanding but remains below pre-contraction peak
EXPANSION PERIOD: 
monthly/quarterly nominal GDP finally exceeds pre-contraction peak

STRUCTURAL GDP (TRIX):  Adjustment to GDP reflecting fiscal policy Deficit/Surplus to reveal growth rate of underlying economy
 
UPPER CLASS:  family wealth (net worth) is among the top 1% of society
MIDDLE CLASS:  family income is among the top 10% of society
WORKING CLASS:  all the rest...

U-6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:  Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.  Discouraged workers  a subset of marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.  Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

real unemployment rates

a note from the author to returning TRENDLiners & new visitors...

May 2nd 2020:  In the good ol'e days I posted new charts every day.  I had to take a break but recent global events have drawn me back.  These Covid19 graphs are my first public postings since 2013.  The website has been dormant - hence the tired & dated look - some would say ugly!  I promise to improve it over the coming weeks (months?). 
Due to the time sensitivity of the pandemic issue, the Covid19 charts will be posted directly to this homepage instead of the normal 90-day exclusive preview at the MemberVenue.

To update loyal TRENDLiners, my 7-yr posting hiatus stems from a decision by Evalina and me to care for my mom with Alzheimers.  Now 88, she is otherwise in great physical health and very kind-hearted.  She left Woodstock Ontario in 2013 to live with us in The Yukon.

You may recall when I started this website we resided in an ocean-front cabin on the Whistler Sea-to-Sky corridor, prior to our 10-yr engagement North of 60.  We loved the Northern Lights and wildlife and were not intimidated by the -47C temps.

But we truly missed our Mediterranean garden and weren't crazy about the mosquitoes & no-see-ums.

So when my mom (ex Cocoa Beach snowbird) suggested we all move down to balmy Vancouver Island, there was little hesitation - and in late 2014 packed up a 26' U-Haul for the 2,500-km trek down the Alaska-Canada Hwy back to BC.

Growing up, my dad was my best friend:  skiing, seeding the luv of cars & road trips, sailboat racing, fishing, politics, nurturing gardening & landscaping ... and lotsa intellectual stimulation.  He died early of prostate cancer in '96.

That said, it was my mom who most of my life subsidized (& was patient with) my hobbies and vices ... especially during the inevitable struggle years most entrepreneurs endure.  So for me it was a case of payback time.

If there was a list it would include (but not limited to) gifting me her '67 Mustang after University; assistance acquiring my 4 Firebirds; befriending 3 daughter-in-laws; countless CARE Pkg's; & helping me restore my Morgan NA-40 offshore racing yacht - etc etc.

I'm looking forward to the Georgia Strait regatta circuit & perhaps circumnavigating the Island some day.  But I have digressed...

I sincerely never dreamed family home-care would be so demanding and last this long.  Mom still lives with us and some day she will enter a nursing home ... but not a wise time right now!

It was when that day arrives I had intended to come back to TRENDLines.  As you can see, the pandemic has accelerated my return.  Partly with concern for my mom's vulnerability, I had been watching the BC, Canadian & int'l Covid19 stats.  Like everyone, I was of course anticipating the infamous "flattening of the curve" - but I was extremely frustrated most jurisdictions were withholding their models' total projected deaths counts in this politically correct environment.

As each daily-deaths peak went by (April 12th in BC), I noticed the down-slope of the curves were quite similar to my peak oil graphs.  A few very late nites later I was able to use my linearization formulae to project BC's MIA total fatalities count.  And shortly thereafter I had numbers for Canada, USA & globally.  I hope you find 'em enlightening and give y'all some perspective in this first wave.

cheers from Deep Bay Marina, Vancouver Island
Freddy Hutter

(Aug 26th update:  After a brief neighbourhood stroll in the sunshine, my mom passed away peacefully at home watching her fav' dance music video - Anthony Quinn in Zorba the Greek from 1966)

Sept 20 2020 (90-day delay waived!) FreeVenue public release of Sept 20 2020 TRENDLines MemberVenue guidance

START
FINISH

click today's chart to visit its unique page for related tables, guidance, background &/or more graphs - - chart archives @ MemberVenue only


 90 days too long to wait?  Enjoy real-time guidance charts via Annual-membership special ($25/month); Quarterly-membership for $36/month; or for short-term projects donate $50 for full MemberVenue access from today 'til Sept 30th 2020. (note - sorry, currently not taking new memberships.


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send email to Freddy Hutter with questions, comments or navigation corrections with respect to this web site
 Last modified:  Sept 20, 2020  ~  (   1989-2020 Trendlines Research)


keywords:  projection prediction forecast indicate guess estimate how many people will die perish in bc british columbia canada canadians usa americans united states globe world worldwide earth result from corona virus covid-19 pandemic flu death toll daily total cumulative fatalities perish victims trendlines freddy hutter CDC IHME model pplm post-peak linearization social physical distancing


PANDEMIC's WAVE#1 only 55% DONE!
FUTURE FATALITIES FORECAST:  770,000 WORLDWIDE
incl:  USA 63,000;  UK 1,970 & CANADA 539 victims

Sept 20th 2020 - Based on changing mortality rates of the novel coronavirus in recent weeks, today's update of TRENDLines Research's Covid-19 fatalities model projects the ultimate 2020 deaths in wave#1 will be 1.73 million worldwide (present toll 960,000 + 770,000 future) including 266,000 in the USA (203K toll + 63K future); 43,840 in the UK (41,870 toll + 1,970 future) & 9,895 in Canada (9,256 toll + 539 future) incl 2,947 in Ontario (2,876 toll + 71 future) & 437 victims in BC (233 toll + 214 future).

Albeit a majority of jurisdictions around the world have experienced some degree of re-opening related relapses, the model indicates wave#1 was essentially suppressed June 20th in BC, July 7th in Ontario, Aug 2nd in the UK & Aug 7th Canada-wide.  But premature relaxation of shelter-in-place, physical distancing, masking, testing & contact tracing see those early sacrifices failing in BC, Canada-wide & in the UK.

Nine months into this pandemic, efforts to contain Covid19 worldwide continue to falter.  Today's worldwide daily-deaths rate of 5,200 is double its post-peak low set in late May.  Blame is especially cast on the USA - hosting 45% of today's global "active" cases.  Its pathetic re-opening strategy has vaulted American daily-deaths to 900 - triple its rate back in early July.

The model's chart, underlying stats & analyst commentary (by Freddy Hutter) are updated weekly at www.trendlines.ca

WORLDWIDE
Based on recent weekly trends, the PPL model forecasts yet another 770,000 Covid19 wave#1 deaths across the globe by year end.  Added to the present toll (960K), the total 2020 count would reach 1,730,000.  This projection is triple that issued (see table) in early June!  Today's daily-deaths rate of 5,200 is double its post-peak low set in late May.  The model suggests the pandemic's first wave is only 55% complete.

The 10 nations with the highest daily-deaths' today:  India, USA, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Iran, Russia, Indonesia, Peru & South Africa.  For context on the extent of ongoing failure in the USA, it comprises 45% of the world's "active" cases.

I believe the novel coronavirus numbers to be quite conservative.  National Covid19 fatality counts should mirror a country's published "seasonal excess deaths".  But in far too many nations, their Covid counts are materially lower, suggesting upward revisions are pending ... unless there's been a flurry of unreported shark attacks!

It remains an outrage that in this ninth month of the pandemic far too many health workers & first responders around the world still lack sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE), timely accurate testing & adequate contact tracing.

Worldwide mortality rate:  126 deaths/million population

USA
Similarly, the model projects another 63,000 deaths in America.  Added to the present toll (203K), the total fatality count may reach 266K by Thanxgiving.  Today's daily-deaths rate of 900 is triple that back in early July.  The model suggests the USA's first wave is 76% complete.

So how did the USA embark on this health crisis?  Here's a clue:  During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th, the President stated to the Fox News host:

"You'll have packed churches all over the country.  It would be a resurrection of biblical proportions.  I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter.  It would be a beautiful thing. "Our country has to get back to work, otherwise it's going to be very hard to start it up again.  We can't lose the the advantage we have."

It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

But it marked the day everything changed.  And leads one to ask why then does the USA have 22% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 45% of the today's global "active" cases & 21% of worldwide body bags?  The answer is founded in its citizenry electing a reality show celebrity as its President.  This business con man's failure to mitigate Covid-19's spread runs the length of his stay in office.

Albeit Obama's Homeland Security Chief (Lisa Monaco) briefed the incoming transition team with a robust "playbook", un-indicted Individual-1 shut down the White House's National Security Council's Pandemic Unit in 2018.  Dr Dennis Carol's Predict Program was cancelled by the White House in 2019.  And 'cuz their very public warnings were rocking the stock markets in Feb/2020, CDC's renowned disease experts Sarah Messonnier & Dr Bright were abruptly reassigned.

This prudent planning team was replaced by a muse "this flu will just go away with warm April sunshine".  After his "miracle" failed, the self-proclaimed "extremely stable genius" offered his cult following hydroxychloroquine, disinfectant injections and internal UV light remedies.

And it appears many continue to drink the Kool-Aid (or bleach?).  Prior to flattening their curves, mostly "red States" have been relaxing physical distancing, stay-at-home policies, masking & contact tracing.  The six States with the most daily-deaths today are Texas, Florida, California, Georgia, Virginia & Ohio.

From its onset it was evident Trump's "Opening Up America Again" campaign was rooted in politics.  Despite his bravado, to that point in time he failed to attain Obama's multiple 5% GDP growth rates.  2020's Q1/Q2/Q3 were his last-kick-at-the-can - hence his nonsensical dampened pandemic rhetoric thru January, February & March.  With Q1 going negative (-5%), he knew a large part of his Nov/2020 Election demise rested on Q2 & Q3 GDP.

So the motive for his March 25th plea (above) for Easter church goers to return to work April 14th is clear.  As a ratings savvy guy, he knew Q2 GDP (for Apr/May/June) would be announced in late July (with Aug27th & Sept30th revisions).  The Q3 GDP announcement will be Oct29th - a mere five days prior to Election Day (Nov3rd).

And evidently, he's in huge trouble for failing to contain Covid-19.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -32% pace in Q2.  And of the 62 million workers initiating unemployment claims during the pandemic, 29 million still remain on the rolls.  With no sign of his boasted V-shaped Recovery, Individual-1 is capable of desperate manoeuvres ... like forcing schools to re-open ... attempting to postpone the Election ... and maybe funding a fake vaccine ... or sabotaging the postal system for an electoral advantage.

The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wants to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-32% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.

from my Aug 5th post:  I'm not into conspiracy theories but I fear he is about to engage in one last desperate ploy.  Albeit Intelligence reports warned last week Russia hacked research labs developing Covid-19 vaccines, Russia surprised all by announcing (Aug 3rd) distribution of its own vaccine will commence in October.

Moments later, Trump announced his January vaccine target is being advanced to this Autumn.  I fear during the run-up to Election Day, Trump will unfold his October surprise:  an executive order authorizing his multi-billion dollar purchase of Russia's excess vaccine doses for immediate distribution - "a beautiful deal".

But make no mistake - this product will not receive FDA/WHO approval.  And failing to attain same, it will never see the light of day.  But by this scenario, Trump will have accomplished two objectives:  a last second boost in the polls ... and receipt of a secret slush fund.  There never being intent to complete this transaction, Individual-1 & Putin will share the non-refundable vaccine deposit monies.

36% of victims resided in long-term care facilities.

USA's mortality rate:  609 deaths/million (9th worst in world)

UK
The model predicts 1,970 additional deaths in the UK.  Added to the present toll (41,870), the 2020 total fatality tally should be 43,840 by Christmas.  It further indicates UK's wave#1 was essentially suppressed on Aug 2nd - when new daily cases sunk below 750 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  But today's daily-deaths rate of 23 is ten-fold that in early August.  Considering the re-opening related resurgence, the model suggests the UK's first wave is 96% complete.

From June to mid August, I was suggesting the real death toll was probably 67,000 - when one considers the UK's 20,000 unaccounted "excess seasonal deaths".  But in a reversal of logic on Aug 19th, instead of the count being revised upwards, the total death numbers were revised downwards 5K.  Should evidence surface the gov't is interfering in the count, this could be a scandal-in-waiting.

The UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 4% of the Covid19 deaths (down from 11% in April).  37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.

UK's mortality rate:  629 deaths/million (8th worst in world - behind Peru, Belgium, Bolivia, Chile, Spain, Brazil & Ecuador)

CANADA
The model estimates there will be 539 more deaths in Canada.  Added to the present toll (9,256), total fatalities may reach 9,895 by Christmas.  It indicates the Canadian wave#1 was essentially suppressed on Aug 7th - when new daily cases sunk below 350 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  But today's daily-deaths rate of 3 is double that.  Considering the re-opening related resurgence, the model suggests Canada's first wave is 94% complete.

Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there's no surprise that this sector saw the most confirmed cases.  82% of fatalities-to-date are long-term care and seniors home residents/staff.  Not a single American State exceeds this metric.

Canada's mortality rate:  250 deaths/million

ONTARIO
The model projects only 71 more deaths-to-come in Ontario. 
Added to the present toll (2,876), total fatalities should be 2,947 by Christmas.  It indicates Ontario's wave#1 was essentially suppressed on July 7th -  when new daily cases sunk below 150 and the Province reported its third consecutive fatality-free day.

Finding 66% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario's credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities.

Ontario's mortality rate:  199 deaths/million

BC
The model projects yet another 214 deaths in the Province.  Added to the present toll (223), total fatalities of 437 are projected by Christmas.  It indicates BC's wave#1 was essentially suppressed way back on June 20th - when new daily cases had dwindled to single digits and the Province reported its ninth consecutive fatality-free day.  But regressing to a death each day once again due to its re-opening related resurgence, the model suggests BC's first wave has reverted to 51% completion.

The original success was dependant on vigilance and I continue to be concerned segments of BC's re-opening strategy were premature and its Orders lacked enforcement.

Since July 22nd I've been warning policymakers BC's physical contact rate had regressed to a dangerous 85% (from 50%) and the exponential increase in daily cases would by late August bring about a return to their reporting scores of new daily cases and multiple deaths.  I stated on multiple occasions the "tweaking" offered by Chief Health Officer Henry & Health Minister Dix was insufficient.  To wit, Aug 24th Dr Bonnie Henry mused to reporters: "We are where we want to be!".

And as foretold, these past nine weeks have yielded 4,500 additional cases and the demise of thirty-four souls.  Today's 437-fatalities target is near triple the model's June forecast.  The prudent Spring sacrifices seem to have been in vain.

Finally on Sept 9th the Province feebly reversed the relaxation of Orders - but cases, hospitalizations & deaths keep growing - and pressers feature "happy talk" tones - not sternness.

It appears science has taken a back seat to politics.  With Election readiness in the air, policymakers seem to have resolved this to be an unwise time to aggravate voters with unpopular restrictions.  A somewhat obtuse position disregarding evidence the inflicted will face years of medical issues and further burden the BC health system.

Despite the relapse, BC exhibits among the lowest fatality, mortality & incidence rates across Canada & the globe.

British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off.  Wise leadership quickly contained the spread and both jurisdictions are on paths to normality.  Credit to BC in being among the first to bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences.

Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 74% of total fatalities.  BC boasts an incidence rate of only 117 cases per 100k population (21/100k on Vancouver Island).

BC mortality rate:  46 deaths/million

The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION MODEL (PPLM)
These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR's linearization model.  It extrapolates a jurisdiction's mortality rate after the curve's peak - particularly the most recent days & weeks.  The graph's data points move left to right chronologically above its date's cumulative death toll on the x-axis.  The intersection of their trendline at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total deaths.  As daily data points are added, a high y-axis data point (high mortality rate) will shift the bottom of the trendline to the right and a higher fatalities count ... and vice versa.

There is no medical component aside from tracking daily & cumulative fatalities.  This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in a curve's down-slope and assumes no change in gov't guidelines, orders or citizenry behaviour.  This same methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has determined global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004.  On request, I can similarly chart any Nation, State, Province or Region - presented alone or with comparatives.

The chart, underlying stats & commentary of TRENDLines Research's post-peak linearization model (PPLM) are updated twice weekly at www.trendlines.ca
 

About TRENDLines Research
Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts;  & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.  Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.

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