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TRENDLines Research  ...  Providing macro-economic charts & guidance for Legislators, Policymakers, Investors & Stakeholders
long-term multi-disciplinary perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989 - TRENDLines removes the noise from economic data to reveal the underlying trends


FreeVenue Chart-of-the-Day  (last 25 graphs)

covid aug10

next update:  Aug 15th

PPL Model's Projected 2020 Covid19 Fatalities Archive

Ontario Canada
Aug 10
2,852 9,075
48,800 377,000
Aug 5
July 30
July 25
July 20
July 15
July 10
189 2,8208,930
July 5
180 2,8458,910
June 30
177 2,8908,840
June 25
172 2,9208,860
June 21st
Actual Deaths:
171 2,657 8,481
42,731 122,468
June 20 forecasts
for Year 2020

June 16
June 12
June 9
June 6
June 3
June 1
May 30
May 28
May 26
May 24


May 22


May 20


May 18


May 16


May 14


May 12


May 10


May 8


May 6


May 4


May 2


Apr 30


Apr 28 forecasts
for June 21st




Aug 10th 2020 update - The TRENDLines Recession Indicator was the first macro-economic model to accurately reveal the magnitude of the Great Recession in real time.  In the 2013 chart below, TRI was forecasting a USA austerity crisis to occur in 2024 due to an uncontrolled $26 trillion National Debt.  But that day has been pre-empted by a black swan event:  the TrumpVirus - a crisis of epic proportions in mismanagement, lack of containment & mitigation failures - resulting in 166K fatalities (thus far).

Despite interventions by the Federal Reserve via its monetary policy tool box and fiscal policy injections of trillions of dollars by Congress, it is probable the  American economy will suffer long-term consequences.  April's "real" Unemployment Rate (U-6) of 22% was the worst since the 26% high (1933) in the Great Depression (see chart below).  Q3 GDP plunged 33% (annualized rate), dwarfing the 2008 & 1980 downturns and anything seen in the great Depression.

Weekly initial unemployment claims reveal the economy shed 56 million jobs over the past 18 weeks (and counting) albeit some sectors are hiring back via Trump's "Opening Up America Again" campaign.  31 million workers remain on the rolls today.  The TrumpVirus assures business failures will continue to year end.  Nominal GDP did not re-attain its pre Great Recession level 'til mid 2011.  In the absence of a vaccine, it is likely this Recovery will last 'til 2023.  And it may take a generation for the Unemployment Rate to recover to its Natural Rate.

If due to the TrumpVirus resurgence and/or an Autumn second wave, GDP declines for at least 4 quarters, this event will have escalated to a defined Severe Recession - if avg GDP over the period exceeds -2%.  GDP must exceed -4% for at least 8 quarters for this to be a defined Depression and -8% for four years to be called a Greater Depression.
TRI USA long

the traditional definitions

TECHNICAL RECESSION:  Avg Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP) declines 0% to 2% for at least 2 Quarters
SEVERE RECESSION:  Avg GDP declines 2% to 4% for at least 4 Qtrs (1 yr)
DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines 4% to 8% for at least 8 Qtrs (2 yrs)
GREATER DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines over 8% for at least 16 Qtrs (4 yrs)

RECOVERY PERIOD:  monthly/quarterly nominal GDP expanding but remains below pre-contraction peak
monthly/quarterly nominal GDP finally exceeds pre-contraction peak

STRUCTURAL GDP (TRIX):  Adjustment to GDP reflecting fiscal policy Deficit/Surplus to reveal growth rate of underlying economy
UPPER CLASS:  family wealth (net worth) is among the top 1% of society
MIDDLE CLASS:  family income is among the top 10% of society
WORKING CLASS:  all the rest...

U-6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:  Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.  Discouraged workers  a subset of marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.  Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

real unemployment rates

a note from the author to returning TRENDLiners & new visitors...

May 2 2020:  In the good ol'e days I posted new charts every day.  I had to take a break but recent global events have drawn me back.  These Covid19 graphs are my first public postings since 2013.  The website has been dormant - hence the tired & dated look - some would say ugly!  I promise to improve it over the coming weeks (months?). 
Due to the time sensitivity of the pandemic issue, the Covid19 charts will be posted directly to this homepage instead of the normal 90-day exclusive preview at the MemberVenue.

To update loyal TRENDLiners, my 7-yr posting hiatus stems from a decision by Evalina and me to care for my mom with Alzheimers.  Now 88, she is otherwise in great physical health and very kind-hearted.  She left Woodstock Ontario in 2013 to live with us in The Yukon.

You may recall when I started this website we resided in an ocean-front cabin on the Whistler Sea-to-Sky corridor, prior to our 10-yr engagement North of 60.  We loved the Northern Lights and wildlife and were not intimidated by the -47C temps.

But we truly missed our Mediterranean garden and weren't crazy about the mosquitoes & no-see-ums.  So when my mom (ex Cocoa Beach snowbird) suggested we all move down to balmy Vancouver Island, there was little hesitation - and in late 2014 packed up a 26' U-Haul for the 2,500-km trek down the Alaska-Canada Hwy back to BC.

Growing up, my dad was my best friend:  skiing, seeding the luv of cars & road trips, sailboat racing, fishing, politics, nurturing gardening & landscaping ... and lotsa intellectual stimulation.  He died early of prostate cancer in '96.

That said, it was my mom who most of my life subsidized (& was patient with) my hobbies and vices ... especially during the inevitable struggle years most entrepreneurs endure.  So for me it was a case of payback time.

If there was a list it would include (but not limited to) gifting me her '67 Mustang after University; assistance acquiring my 4 Firebirds; befriending 3 daughter-in-laws; countless CARE Pkg's; & helping me restore my Morgan NA-40 offshore racing yacht - etc etc.

I'm looking forward to the Georgia Strait regatta circuit & perhaps circumnavigating the Island some day.  But I have digressed...

I sincerely never dreamed family home-care would be so demanding and last this long.  Mom still lives with us and some day she will enter a nursing home ... but not a wise time right now!

It was when that day arrives I had intended to come back to TRENDLines.  As you can see, the pandemic has accelerated my return.
  Partly with concern for my mom's vulnerability, I had been watching the BC, Canadian & int'l Covid19 stats.  Like everyone, I was of course anticipating the infamous "flattening of the curve" - but I was extremely frustrated most jurisdictions were withholding their models' total projected deaths counts in this politically correct environment.

As each daily-deaths peak went by (April 12th in BC), I noticed the down-slope of the curves were quite similar to my peak oil graphs.  A few very late nites later I was able to use my linearization formulae to project BC's MIA total fatalities count.  And shortly thereafter I had numbers for Canada, USA & globally.  I hope you find 'em enlightening and give y'all some perspective in this first wave.

cheers from Deep Bay Marina, Vancouver Island
Freddy Hutter

Aug 10 2020 (90-day delay waived!) FreeVenue public release of Aug 10 2020 TRENDLines MemberVenue guidance


click today's chart to visit its unique page for related tables, guidance, background &/or more graphs - - chart archives @ MemberVenue only

 90 days too long to wait?  Enjoy real-time guidance charts via Annual-membership special ($25/month); Quarterly-membership for $36/month; or for short-term projects donate $50 for full MemberVenue access from today 'til Sept 30th 2020.


send email to Freddy Hutter with questions, comments or navigation corrections with respect to this web site
 Last modified:  Aug 10, 2020  ~  (   1989-2020 Trendlines Research)

keywords:  projection prediction forecast indicate guess estimate how many people will die perish in bc british columbia canada canadians usa americans united states globe world worldwide earth result from corona virus covid-19 pandemic flu death toll daily total cumulative fatalities perish victims trendlines freddy hutter CDC IHME model pplm post-peak linearization social physical distancing

PANDEMIC's WAVE#1 is only 1/3rd DONE!
incl:  USA 211,000;  UK 2,000 & CANADA 50 victims

Aug 10th 2020 - Based on the mortality trends of recent weeks, today's update of TRENDLines Research's fatalities model indicates ultimate total deaths across the globe will be 2.45 million (present toll 740,000 + 1,710,000 future);  377,000 in the USA (166K toll + 211K future);  48,800 in the UK (46,800 toll + 2,000 future);  9,075 in Canada (9,025 toll + 50 future);  2,852 in Ontario (2,832 toll + 20 future) & 207 victims in BC (195 toll + 12 future) due to the Covid-19 novel coronavirus.

New post-peak lows for daily-deaths were set in August in the UK, Canada & Ontario.  Wave#1 was virtually arrested on June 20th in BC - no fatalities for 13 days.  But relaxation of lock-downs, physical distancing, masking, testing & contact tracing has vaulted American daily-deaths to 1,200 (triple its rate just five weeks ago) & worldwide daily-deaths to 6,100 (over double the global post-peak wave-1 low set in late May).

Model projections reflect extrapolation of each jurisdiction's fatality rate this season and do not assume future changes in gov't guidelines, orders or citizenry behaviour.  The chart & underlying stats of TRENDLines Research's post-peak linearization model (PPLM) are updated twice weekly at www.trendlines.ca

Based on recent trends, TR's PPL model forecasts yet another 1.71 million Covid19 deaths across the globe by year end.  Added to the present toll of 740K, the total 2020 count could reach 2,450,000.  This projection is over double that issued (see table) just four weeks back!  Today's figures suggest the pandemic's first wave is only 30% complete.

I believe the pandemic numbers to be quite conservative.  The national Covid fatality counts should mirror a country's published "seasonal excess deaths".  But in far too many nations, their Covid counts are materially lower, suggesting upward revisions are pending ... unless there's been a flurry of unreported shark attacks!

The 10 nations with the highest daily-deaths' today:  USA, Brazil, India, Mexico, Columbia, South Africa, Peru, Iran, Argentina & Russia.

It remains an outrage that in this eighth month of the pandemic far too many health workers & first responders around the world still lack sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) and timely accurate testing.

Worldwide fatality rate:  96 deaths/million population

Similarly, the model projects another 211K deaths in America.  Added to the present toll of 166K, the 2020 fatality count may reach 377K.    Today's figures suggest the USA's first wave is only 44% complete.

How did the USA embark on this health crisis?  Here's a clue:  During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th, the President stated to the Fox News host:

"You'll have packed churches all over the country.  It would be a resurrection of biblical proportions.  I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter.  It would be a beautiful thing. "Our country has to get back to work, otherwise it's going to be very hard to start it up again.  We can't lose the the advantage we have."

It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

But it marked the day everything changed.  And leads one to ask why then does the USA today have 25% of known world Covid cases & 22% of global body bags?  The answer is founded in its citizenry electing a reality show celebrity as its President.  His failure to mitigate Covid-19's spread runs the length of his stay in office.

Albeit Obama's Homeland Security Chief (Lisa Monaco) briefed the incoming transition team with a robust "playbook", un-indicted Individual-1 shut down the White House's National Security Council's Pandemic Unit in 2018.  Dr Dennis Carol's Predict Program was cancelled by the White House in 2019.  And 'cuz their very public warnings were rocking the stock markets in Feb/2020, CDC's renowned disease experts Sarah Messonnier & Dr Bright were abruptly reassigned.

This prudent planning team was replaced by a muse "this flu will just go away with warm April sunshine".  After his "miracle" failed, the self-proclaimed "extremely stable genius" offered his cult following hydroxychloroquine, disinfectant injections and internal UV light remedies.

And it appears many continue to drink the Kool-Aid (or bleach?).  Prior to flattening their curves, mostly "red States" have been relaxing physical distancing, stay-at-home policies & masking.  The six States with the most daily deaths today are Texas, Florida, California, Arizona, Georgia & Louisiana.

From its onset it was evident Trump's "Opening Up America Again" campaign was rooted in politics.  Despite his bravado, to that point in time he failed to attain Obama's multiple 5% GDP growth rates.  2020's Q1/Q2/Q3 were his last-kick-at-the-can - hence his nonsensical dampened pandemic rhetoric thru January, February & March.  With Q1 going negative (-5%), he knew a large part of his Nov/2020 Election demise rested on Q2 & Q3 GDP.

So the motive for his March 25th plea (above) for Easter church goers to return to work April 14th is clear.  As a ratings savvy guy, he knew Q2 GDP (for Apr/May/June) would be announced today (with Aug27th & Sept30th revisions).  The Q3 GDP announcement will be Oct29th - a mere five days prior to Election Day (Nov3rd).

And evidently, he's in huge trouble for failing to contain Covid-19.  The uncontained TrumpVirus spawned a historic -33% Q2 GDP.  And of the 54 million workers initiating unemployment claims, 30 million workers remain on the rolls.  With no sign of his boasted V-shaped Recovery, Individual-1 is poised to initiate desperate manoeuvres ... like forcing schools to re-open in September ... and attempting to postpone the Election ... and maybe funding a fake vaccine.

In short, he risked a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wants to avoid voters going to the polls with the realization that The Donald (alone) was at fault for April's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-33% GDP) including the Great Depression.

from my Aug 5th post:  I'm not into conspiracy theories but I fear he is about to engage in one last desperate ploy.  Albeit Intelligence reports warned last week Russia hacked research labs developing Covid-19 vaccines, Russia surprised all by announcing (Aug 3rd) distribution of its own vaccine will commence in October.

Moments later, Trump announced his January vaccine target is being advanced to this Autumn.  I fear during the run-up to Election Day, Trump will unfold his October surprise:  an executive order authorizing his multi-billion dollar purchase of Russia's excess vaccine doses for immediate distribution - "a beautiful deal".

But make no mistake - this product will not receive FDA/WHO approval.  And failing to attain same, it will never see the light of day.  But by this scenario, Trump will set two accomplishments:  a last second boost in the polls ... and receipt of a hidden slush fund.  There never being intent to complete this transaction, Individual-1 & Putin will share the non-refundable vaccine deposit monies.

45% of victims resided in long-term care facilities.

USA's fatality rate:  496 deaths/million (8th worst in world)

The model predicts 2,000 additional deaths in the UK.  Added to the present toll of 46,800, the 2020 total fatality tally should be 48,800.  But, considering the UK's 20,000 unaccounted "excess deaths" this year, the real ultimate figure is likely 67K.  Should evidence arise the gov't is interfering in the real count, this could be a scandal-in-waiting.

The UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 7% of the Covid19 deaths.  37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.

UK's fatality rate:  702 deaths/million (2nd worst in world - behind Belgium)

The model estimates 50 more deaths in Canada.  Added to the present toll of 9,025, the total 2020 fatalities may reach 9,075.

Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there's no surprise that this sector saw the most confirmed cases.  82% of fatalities-to-date are long-term care and seniors home residents/staff.  Not a single American State exceeds this metric.

Canada's fatality rate:  244 deaths/million

The model projects only 20 more deaths in Ontario. 
Added to the present toll of 2,832, the 2020 fatality count should end at 2,852.

Finding 62% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario's credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities.

Ontario's fatality rate:  193 deaths/million

The Province has not reported a fatality for 13 days.  And with a mere 11 hospitalizations presently, the model projects only 12 more Covid19 deaths this Summer.  Added to the present toll of 195, the total fatality count should be 207.

BC successfully arrested wave#1 back on June 20th.  New cases had dwindled to single digits and nine successive fatality-free days were posted. Unfortunately, non-compliant social behaviour in recent weeks spawned eleven hundred new cases and 27 more victims.  BC's contact rate has regressed to 85% (from 50%).

With only a handful of weeks 'til kids go back to school, Henry & Dix must aggressively address the new infection sources with more than "tweaks".  And with last week's revelations by Dr Henry, time-is-of-the-essence.  Antigen testing indicates the real number of BC cases could be approaching 20K ... and 4,300 non-compliant plane debarkers are potentially avoiding self-quarantine.

The threshold is nearing where education must be augmented with enforcement.  Failure will see a return to daily announcements proclaiming scores of new cases and multiple deaths.  Our Spring sacrifices will have been in vain.  If prudence prevails, it can be declared wave#1 is virtually complete.

British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off.  Wise leadership quickly contained the spread and both jurisdictions are on paths to normality.  Credit to BC in being among the first to bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences.

Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 74% of total fatalities.  BC boasts an incidence rate of only 75 cases per 100k population (17/100k on Vancouver Island).

BC fatality rate:  40 deaths/million

These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR's linearization model.  It analyzes the subtle changes in a jurisdiction's daily-death rate after the curve's peak - particularly the most recent days & weeks.  The graph's data points move left to right chronologically above its date's cumulative death toll on the x-axis.  The intersection of their trendline at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total deaths.  As daily data points are added, a high y-axis data pt (high fatality rate) will shift the bottom of the trendline to the right and a higher fatalities count ... and vice versa.

There is no medical component aside from tracking daily & cumulative fatalities.  This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in a curve's down-slope.  This same methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has produced global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004.  On request, I can similarly chart any Nation, State, Province or Region - presented alone or with comparatives.
About TRENDLines Research
Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in economic data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts;  & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.

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